COVID-19 Forecast for Qatar, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
255 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Qatar HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 255 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Qatar run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Qatar are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       130 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         40:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        278:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        209:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        487:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Qatar COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.009, at 100.91% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 8,  official: 3,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 11,  official: 7,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 12,  official: 8,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 15,  official: 8,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 18,  official: 8,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 24,  official: 11,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 262,  official: 12,  infectious: 262,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 262,  official: 15,  infectious: 262,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 320,  official: 18,  infectious: 320,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 337,  official: 24,  infectious: 337,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 401,  official: 262,  infectious: 401,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 439,  official: 262,  infectious: 439,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 442,  official: 320,  infectious: 442,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 452,  official: 337,  infectious: 452,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 460,  official: 401,  infectious: 460,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 470,  official: 439,  infectious: 470,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 481,  official: 442,  infectious: 481,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 494,  official: 452,  infectious: 494,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 501,  official: 460,  infectious: 501,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 526,  official: 470,  infectious: 526,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 537,  official: 481,  infectious: 537,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 549,  official: 494,  infectious: 549,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 23:  real: 562,  official: 501,  infectious: 562,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 24:  real: 590,  official: 526,  infectious: 590,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 25:  real: 634,  official: 537,  infectious: 634,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 26:  real: 693,  official: 549,  infectious: 693,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 27:  real: 781,  official: 562,  infectious: 781,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 28:  real: 835,  official: 590,  infectious: 835,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 29:  real: 949,  official: 634,  infectious: 949,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 30:  real: 1,075,  official: 693,  infectious: 1,075,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 31:  real: 1,325,  official: 781,  infectious: 1,325,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Apr  1:  real: 1,604,  official: 835,  infectious: 1,604,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  2:  real: 1,832,  official: 949,  infectious: 1,832,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Apr  3:  real: 2,057,  official: 1,075,  infectious: 2,057,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr  4:  real: 2,210,  official: 1,325,  infectious: 2,210,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr  5:  real: 2,376,  official: 1,604,  infectious: 2,376,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Apr  6:  real: 2,512,  official: 1,832,  infectious: 2,512,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Apr  7:  real: 2,728,  official: 2,057,  infectious: 2,728,  died: 2,  dead: 6

Apr  8:  real: 2,979,  official: 2,210,  infectious: 2,979,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Apr  9:  real: 3,231,  official: 2,376,  infectious: 3,231,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Apr 10:  real: 3,428,  official: 2,512,  infectious: 3,428,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Apr 11:  real: 3,711,  official: 2,728,  infectious: 3,711,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Apr 12:  real: 4,103,  official: 2,979,  infectious: 4,103,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Apr 13:  real: 4,663,  official: 3,231,  infectious: 4,663,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr 14:  real: 5,008,  official: 3,428,  infectious: 5,008,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr 15:  real: 5,448,  official: 3,711,  infectious: 5,448,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr 16:  real: 6,015,  official: 4,103,  infectious: 6,015,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr 17:  real: 6,533,  official: 4,663,  infectious: 6,533,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr 18:  real: 7,141,  official: 5,008,  infectious: 7,141,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Apr 19:  real: 7,764,  official: 5,448,  infectious: 7,764,  died: 0,  dead: 8

Apr 20:  real: 8,525,  official: 6,015,  infectious: 8,525,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Apr 21:  real: 9,358,  official: 6,533,  infectious: 9,358,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 22:  real: 10,287,  official: 7,141,  infectious: 10,287,  died: 1,  dead: 10

Apr 23:  real: 11,244,  official: 7,764,  infectious: 11,244,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 24:  real: 11,921,  official: 8,525,  infectious: 11,921,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 25:  real: 12,564,  official: 9,358,  infectious: 12,564,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 26:  real: 13,409,  official: 10,287,  infectious: 13,409,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 27:  real: 14,096,  official: 11,244,  infectious: 14,096,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 28:  real: 14,872,  official: 11,921,  infectious: 14,872,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 29:  real: 15,551,  official: 12,564,  infectious: 15,551,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 30:  real: 16,191,  official: 13,409,  infectious: 16,191,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  1:  real: 17,142,  official: 14,096,  infectious: 17,142,  died: 2,  dead: 12

May  2:  real: 17,972,  official: 14,872,  infectious: 17,972,  died: 0,  dead: 12

May  3:  real: 18,890,  official: 15,551,  infectious: 18,890,  died: 0,  dead: 12

May  4:  real: 20,201,  official: 16,191,  infectious: 20,201,  died: 0,  dead: 12

May  5:  real: 21,331,  official: 17,142,  infectious: 21,331,  died: 0,  dead: 12

May  6:  real: 22,520,  official: 17,972,  infectious: 22,520,  died: 0,  dead: 12

May  7:  real: 23,623,  official: 18,890,  infectious: 23,623,  died: 0,  dead: 12

May  8:  real: 25,149,  official: 20,201,  infectious: 25,149,  died: 0,  dead: 12

May  9:  real: 26,539,  official: 21,331,  infectious: 26,539,  died: 1,  dead: 13

May 10:  real: 28,272,  official: 22,520,  infectious: 28,272,  died: 1,  dead: 14

May 11:  real: 29,425,  official: 23,623,  infectious: 29,425,  died: 0,  dead: 14

May 12:  real: 30,972,  official: 25,149,  infectious: 30,972,  died: 0,  dead: 14

May 13:  real: 32,604,  official: 26,539,  infectious: 32,604,  died: 0,  dead: 14

May 14:  real: 33,969,  official: 28,272,  infectious: 33,969,  died: 0,  dead: 14

May 15:  real: 35,606,  official: 29,425,  infectious: 35,606,  died: 0,  dead: 14

May 16:  real: 37,097,  official: 30,972,  infectious: 37,097,  died: 1,  dead: 15

May 17:  real: 38,651,  official: 32,604,  infectious: 38,651,  died: 0,  dead: 15

May 18:  real: 40,481,  official: 33,969,  infectious: 40,481,  died: 0,  dead: 15

May 19:  real: 42,213,  official: 35,606,  infectious: 42,213,  died: 0,  dead: 15

May 20:  real: 43,714,  official: 37,097,  infectious: 43,714,  died: 1,  dead: 16

May 21:  real: 45,465,  official: 38,651,  infectious: 45,465,  died: 1,  dead: 17

May 22:  real: 47,207,  official: 40,481,  infectious: 47,207,  died: 2,  dead: 19

May 23:  real: 48,947,  official: 42,213,  infectious: 48,947,  died: 2,  dead: 21

May 24:  real: 50,914,  official: 43,714,  infectious: 50,914,  died: 2,  dead: 23

May 25:  real: 52,907,  official: 45,465,  infectious: 52,907,  died: 3,  dead: 26

May 26:  real: 55,262,  official: 47,207,  infectious: 55,262,  died: 2,  dead: 28

May 27:  real: 56,910,  official: 48,947,  infectious: 56,910,  died: 2,  dead: 30

May 28:  real: 58,433,  official: 50,914,  infectious: 58,433,  died: 3,  dead: 33

May 29:  real: 60,259,  official: 52,907,  infectious: 60,259,  died: 3,  dead: 36

May 30:  real: 62,160,  official: 55,262,  infectious: 62,160,  died: 0,  dead: 36

May 31:  real: 63,741,  official: 56,910,  infectious: 63,741,  died: 2,  dead: 38

Jun  1:  real: 65,495,  official: 58,433,  infectious: 65,495,  died: 2,  dead: 40

Jun  2:  real: 67,195,  official: 60,259,  infectious: 67,195,  died: 3,  dead: 43

Jun  3:  real: 68,790,  official: 62,160,  infectious: 68,790,  died: 2,  dead: 45

Jun  4:  real: 70,158,  official: 63,741,  infectious: 70,158,  died: 0,  dead: 45

Jun  5:  real: 71,879,  official: 65,495,  infectious: 71,879,  died: 4,  dead: 49

Jun  6:  real: 73,595,  official: 67,195,  infectious: 73,595,  died: 2,  dead: 51

Jun  7:  real: 75,071,  official: 68,790,  infectious: 75,071,  died: 3,  dead: 54

Jun  8:  real: 76,588,  official: 70,158,  infectious: 76,588,  died: 3,  dead: 57

Jun  9:  real: 78,416,  official: 71,879,  infectious: 78,416,  died: 5,  dead: 62

Jun 10:  real: 79,602,  official: 73,595,  infectious: 79,602,  died: 4,  dead: 66

Jun 11:  real: 80,876,  official: 75,071,  infectious: 80,876,  died: 3,  dead: 69

Jun 12:  real: 82,077,  official: 76,588,  infectious: 82,077,  died: 1,  dead: 70

Jun 13:  real: 83,174,  official: 78,416,  infectious: 83,174,  died: 0,  dead: 70

Jun 14:  real: 84,441,  official: 79,602,  infectious: 84,441,  died: 3,  dead: 73

Jun 15:  real: 85,462,  official: 80,876,  infectious: 85,462,  died: 3,  dead: 76

Jun 16:  real: 86,488,  official: 82,077,  infectious: 86,488,  died: 4,  dead: 80

Jun 17:  real: 87,369,  official: 83,174,  infectious: 87,369,  died: 2,  dead: 82

Jun 18:  real: 88,403,  official: 84,441,  infectious: 88,403,  died: 4,  dead: 86

Jun 19:  real: 89,579,  official: 85,462,  infectious: 89,579,  died: 7,  dead: 93

Jun 20:  real: 90,778,  official: 86,488,  infectious: 90,778,  died: 1,  dead: 94

Jun 21:  real: 91,838,  official: 87,369,  infectious: 91,838,  died: 4,  dead: 98

Jun 22:  real: 92,784,  official: 88,403,  infectious: 92,784,  died: 1,  dead: 99

Jun 23:  real: 93,663,  official: 89,579,  infectious: 93,663,  died: 0,  dead: 99

Jun 24:  real: 94,413,  official: 90,778,  infectious: 94,413,  died: 5,  dead: 104

Jun 25:  real: 95,106,  official: 91,838,  infectious: 95,106,  died: 2,  dead: 106

Jun 26:  real: 96,088,  official: 92,784,  infectious: 96,088,  died: 3,  dead: 109

Jun 27:  real: 97,003,  official: 93,663,  infectious: 97,003,  died: 1,  dead: 110

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 97,181,  official: 94,413,  infectious: 19,327,  died: 16,  dead: 126


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 97,356,  official: 95,106,  infectious: 19,036,  died: 14,  dead: 140

Jun 30:  real: 97,520,  official: 96,088,  infectious: 17,824,  died: 13,  dead: 153

Jul  1:  real: 97,671,  official: 97,003,  infectious: 16,357,  died: 12,  dead: 165

Jul  2:  real: 97,813,  official: 97,181,  infectious: 15,414,  died: 10,  dead: 175

Jul  3:  real: 97,945,  official: 97,356,  infectious: 14,374,  died: 39,  dead: 214

Jul  4:  real: 98,068,  official: 97,520,  infectious: 13,396,  died: 40,  dead: 254

Jul  5:  real: 98,183,  official: 97,671,  infectious: 12,513,  died: 36,  dead: 290

Jul  6:  real: 98,289,  official: 97,813,  infectious: 11,496,  died: 22,  dead: 312

Jul  7:  real: 98,387,  official: 97,945,  infectious: 10,629,  died: 19,  dead: 331

Jul  8:  real: 98,477,  official: 98,068,  infectious: 9,760,  died: 17,  dead: 348

Jul  9:  real: 98,561,  official: 98,183,  infectious: 9,101,  died: 25,  dead: 373

Jul 10:  real: 98,638,  official: 98,289,  infectious: 8,314,  died: 23,  dead: 396

Jul 11:  real: 98,706,  official: 98,387,  infectious: 7,422,  died: 9,  dead: 405

Jul 12:  real: 98,766,  official: 98,477,  infectious: 6,508,  died: 8,  dead: 413

Jul 13:  real: 98,818,  official: 98,561,  infectious: 5,698,  died: 8,  dead: 421

Jul 14:  real: 98,864,  official: 98,638,  infectious: 4,974,  died: 7,  dead: 428

Jul 15:  real: 98,904,  official: 98,706,  infectious: 4,296,  died: 7,  dead: 435

Jul 16:  real: 98,938,  official: 98,766,  infectious: 3,718,  died: 6,  dead: 441

Jul 17:  real: 98,967,  official: 98,818,  infectious: 3,181,  died: 6,  dead: 447

Jul 18:  real: 98,989,  official: 98,864,  infectious: 2,410,  died: 5,  dead: 452

Jul 19:  real: 99,005,  official: 98,904,  infectious: 1,688,  died: 5,  dead: 457

Jul 20:  real: 99,019,  official: 98,938,  infectious: 1,551,  died: 4,  dead: 461

Jul 21:  real: 99,032,  official: 98,967,  infectious: 1,411,  died: 4,  dead: 465

Jul 22:  real: 99,044,  official: 98,989,  infectious: 1,279,  died: 4,  dead: 469

Jul 23:  real: 99,055,  official: 99,005,  infectious: 1,159,  died: 3,  dead: 472

Jul 24:  real: 99,065,  official: 99,019,  infectious: 1,047,  died: 3,  dead: 475

Jul 25:  real: 99,074,  official: 99,032,  infectious: 942,  died: 3,  dead: 478

Jul 26:  real: 99,082,  official: 99,044,  infectious: 846,  died: 2,  dead: 480

Jul 27:  real: 99,089,  official: 99,055,  infectious: 755,  died: 2,  dead: 482


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 28:  real: 99,095,  official: 99,065,  infectious: 671,  died: 2,  dead: 484

Jul 29:  real: 99,100,  official: 99,074,  infectious: 594,  died: 1,  dead: 485

Jul 30:  real: 99,105,  official: 99,082,  infectious: 524,  died: 1,  dead: 486

Jul 31:  real: 99,109,  official: 99,089,  infectious: 458,  died: 1,  dead: 487

Aug  1:  real: 99,113,  official: 99,095,  infectious: 399,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  2:  real: 99,116,  official: 99,100,  infectious: 347,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  3:  real: 99,119,  official: 99,105,  infectious: 301,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  4:  real: 99,121,  official: 99,109,  infectious: 260,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  5:  real: 99,123,  official: 99,113,  infectious: 224,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  6:  real: 99,125,  official: 99,116,  infectious: 192,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  7:  real: 99,127,  official: 99,119,  infectious: 165,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  8:  real: 99,128,  official: 99,121,  infectious: 143,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug  9:  real: 99,129,  official: 99,123,  infectious: 127,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 10:  real: 99,130,  official: 99,125,  infectious: 114,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 11:  real: 99,131,  official: 99,127,  infectious: 103,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 12:  real: 99,132,  official: 99,128,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 13:  real: 99,133,  official: 99,129,  infectious: 82,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 14:  real: 99,134,  official: 99,130,  infectious: 73,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 15:  real: 99,135,  official: 99,131,  infectious: 65,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 16:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,132,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 17:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,133,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 18:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,134,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 19:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,135,  infectious: 41,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 20:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 21:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 22:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 23:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 24:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 25:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 26:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 27:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 28:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 29:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 30:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Aug 31:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  1:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  2:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  3:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  4:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  5:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  6:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  7:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  8:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep  9:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 10:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 11:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 12:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 13:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 14:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 15:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 16:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 17:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 18:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 19:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 20:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 21:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 22:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 23:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 24:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 25:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 26:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 27:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 28:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 29:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Sep 30:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  1:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  2:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  3:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  4:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  5:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  6:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  7:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  8:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct  9:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 10:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 11:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 12:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 13:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 14:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 15:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 16:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 17:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 18:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 19:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 20:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 21:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 22:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 23:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 24:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 25:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 26:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 27:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 28:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 29:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 30:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Oct 31:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  1:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  2:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  3:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  4:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  5:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  6:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  7:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  8:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov  9:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 10:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 11:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 12:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 13:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 14:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 15:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 16:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 17:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 18:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 19:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 20:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 21:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 22:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 23:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 24:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 25:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 26:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 27:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 28:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 29:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Nov 30:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  1:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  2:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  3:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  4:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  5:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  6:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  7:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  8:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec  9:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 10:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 11:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 12:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 13:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 14:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 15:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 16:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 17:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 18:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 19:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 20:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 21:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 22:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 23:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 24:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 25:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 26:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 27:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 28:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 29:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 30:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

Dec 31:  real: 99,136,  official: 99,136,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 487

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       130 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         40:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        278:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        209:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        487:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.91%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0091
Official uninf: 2,202,997 / Adult Pop.: 2,300,000   =   Choke Rate: 95.78%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0440
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.95%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0095