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COVID-19 Forecast for Turkey, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
357 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Turkey HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 357 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Turkey run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Turkey are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         20:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      5,410:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      5,410:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Turkey COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.006, at 100.65% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 5,  official: 0,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 6,  official: 1,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 18,  official: 1,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 47,  official: 1,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 98,  official: 5,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 191,  official: 6,  infectious: 191,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 359,  official: 18,  infectious: 359,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 670,  official: 47,  infectious: 670,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 947,  official: 98,  infectious: 947,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 18:  real: 1,236,  official: 191,  infectious: 1,236,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 19:  real: 1,529,  official: 359,  infectious: 1,529,  died: 2,  dead: 4

Mar 20:  real: 1,872,  official: 670,  infectious: 1,872,  died: 5,  dead: 9

Mar 21:  real: 2,433,  official: 947,  infectious: 2,433,  died: 12,  dead: 21

Mar 22:  real: 3,629,  official: 1,236,  infectious: 3,629,  died: 9,  dead: 30

Mar 23:  real: 5,698,  official: 1,529,  infectious: 5,698,  died: 7,  dead: 37

Mar 24:  real: 7,402,  official: 1,872,  infectious: 7,402,  died: 7,  dead: 44

Mar 25:  real: 9,217,  official: 2,433,  infectious: 9,217,  died: 15,  dead: 59

Mar 26:  real: 10,827,  official: 3,629,  infectious: 10,827,  died: 16,  dead: 75

Mar 27:  real: 13,531,  official: 5,698,  infectious: 13,531,  died: 17,  dead: 92

Mar 28:  real: 15,679,  official: 7,402,  infectious: 15,679,  died: 16,  dead: 108

Mar 29:  real: 18,135,  official: 9,217,  infectious: 18,135,  died: 23,  dead: 131

Mar 30:  real: 20,921,  official: 10,827,  infectious: 20,921,  died: 37,  dead: 168

Mar 31:  real: 23,934,  official: 13,531,  infectious: 23,934,  died: 46,  dead: 214

Apr  1:  real: 27,069,  official: 15,679,  infectious: 27,069,  died: 63,  dead: 277

Apr  2:  real: 30,217,  official: 18,135,  infectious: 30,217,  died: 79,  dead: 356

Apr  3:  real: 34,109,  official: 20,921,  infectious: 34,109,  died: 69,  dead: 425

Apr  4:  real: 38,226,  official: 23,934,  infectious: 38,226,  died: 76,  dead: 501

Apr  5:  real: 42,282,  official: 27,069,  infectious: 42,282,  died: 73,  dead: 574

Apr  6:  real: 47,029,  official: 30,217,  infectious: 47,029,  died: 75,  dead: 649

Apr  7:  real: 52,167,  official: 34,109,  infectious: 52,167,  died: 76,  dead: 725

Apr  8:  real: 56,956,  official: 38,226,  infectious: 56,956,  died: 87,  dead: 812

Apr  9:  real: 61,049,  official: 42,282,  infectious: 61,049,  died: 96,  dead: 908

Apr 10:  real: 65,111,  official: 47,029,  infectious: 65,111,  died: 98,  dead: 1,006

Apr 11:  real: 69,392,  official: 52,167,  infectious: 69,392,  died: 95,  dead: 1,101

Apr 12:  real: 74,193,  official: 56,956,  infectious: 74,193,  died: 97,  dead: 1,198

Apr 13:  real: 78,546,  official: 61,049,  infectious: 78,546,  died: 98,  dead: 1,296

Apr 14:  real: 82,329,  official: 65,111,  infectious: 82,329,  died: 107,  dead: 1,403

Apr 15:  real: 86,306,  official: 69,392,  infectious: 86,306,  died: 115,  dead: 1,518

Apr 16:  real: 90,980,  official: 74,193,  infectious: 90,980,  died: 125,  dead: 1,643

Apr 17:  real: 95,591,  official: 78,546,  infectious: 95,591,  died: 126,  dead: 1,769

Apr 18:  real: 98,674,  official: 82,329,  infectious: 98,674,  died: 121,  dead: 1,890

Apr 19:  real: 101,790,  official: 86,306,  infectious: 101,790,  died: 127,  dead: 2,017

Apr 20:  real: 104,912,  official: 90,980,  infectious: 104,912,  died: 123,  dead: 2,140

Apr 21:  real: 107,773,  official: 95,591,  infectious: 107,773,  died: 119,  dead: 2,259

Apr 22:  real: 110,130,  official: 98,674,  infectious: 110,130,  died: 117,  dead: 2,376

Apr 23:  real: 112,261,  official: 101,790,  infectious: 112,261,  died: 115,  dead: 2,491

Apr 24:  real: 114,653,  official: 104,912,  infectious: 114,653,  died: 109,  dead: 2,600

Apr 25:  real: 117,589,  official: 107,773,  infectious: 117,589,  died: 106,  dead: 2,706

Apr 26:  real: 120,204,  official: 110,130,  infectious: 120,204,  died: 99,  dead: 2,805

Apr 27:  real: 122,392,  official: 112,261,  infectious: 122,392,  died: 95,  dead: 2,900

Apr 28:  real: 124,375,  official: 114,653,  infectious: 124,375,  died: 92,  dead: 2,992

Apr 29:  real: 126,045,  official: 117,589,  infectious: 126,045,  died: 89,  dead: 3,081

Apr 30:  real: 127,659,  official: 120,204,  infectious: 127,659,  died: 93,  dead: 3,174

May  1:  real: 129,491,  official: 122,392,  infectious: 129,491,  died: 84,  dead: 3,258

May  2:  real: 131,744,  official: 124,375,  infectious: 131,744,  died: 78,  dead: 3,336

May  3:  real: 133,721,  official: 126,045,  infectious: 133,721,  died: 61,  dead: 3,397

May  4:  real: 135,569,  official: 127,659,  infectious: 135,569,  died: 64,  dead: 3,461

May  5:  real: 137,115,  official: 129,491,  infectious: 137,115,  died: 59,  dead: 3,520

May  6:  real: 138,657,  official: 131,744,  infectious: 138,657,  died: 64,  dead: 3,584

May  7:  real: 139,771,  official: 133,721,  infectious: 139,771,  died: 57,  dead: 3,641

May  8:  real: 141,475,  official: 135,569,  infectious: 141,475,  died: 48,  dead: 3,689

May  9:  real: 143,114,  official: 137,115,  infectious: 143,114,  died: 50,  dead: 3,739

May 10:  real: 144,749,  official: 138,657,  infectious: 144,749,  died: 47,  dead: 3,786

May 11:  real: 146,457,  official: 139,771,  infectious: 146,457,  died: 55,  dead: 3,841

May 12:  real: 148,067,  official: 141,475,  infectious: 148,067,  died: 53,  dead: 3,894

May 13:  real: 149,435,  official: 143,114,  infectious: 149,435,  died: 58,  dead: 3,952

May 14:  real: 150,593,  official: 144,749,  infectious: 150,593,  died: 55,  dead: 4,007

May 15:  real: 151,615,  official: 146,457,  infectious: 151,615,  died: 48,  dead: 4,055

May 16:  real: 152,587,  official: 148,067,  infectious: 152,587,  died: 41,  dead: 4,096

May 17:  real: 153,548,  official: 149,435,  infectious: 153,548,  died: 44,  dead: 4,140

May 18:  real: 154,500,  official: 150,593,  infectious: 154,500,  died: 31,  dead: 4,171

May 19:  real: 155,686,  official: 151,615,  infectious: 155,686,  died: 28,  dead: 4,199

May 20:  real: 156,827,  official: 152,587,  infectious: 156,827,  died: 23,  dead: 4,222

May 21:  real: 157,814,  official: 153,548,  infectious: 157,814,  died: 27,  dead: 4,249

May 22:  real: 158,762,  official: 154,500,  infectious: 158,762,  died: 27,  dead: 4,276

May 23:  real: 159,797,  official: 155,686,  infectious: 159,797,  died: 32,  dead: 4,308

May 24:  real: 160,979,  official: 156,827,  infectious: 160,979,  died: 32,  dead: 4,340

May 25:  real: 162,120,  official: 157,814,  infectious: 162,120,  died: 29,  dead: 4,369

May 26:  real: 163,103,  official: 158,762,  infectious: 163,103,  died: 28,  dead: 4,397

May 27:  real: 163,942,  official: 159,797,  infectious: 163,942,  died: 34,  dead: 4,431

May 28:  real: 164,769,  official: 160,979,  infectious: 164,769,  died: 30,  dead: 4,461

May 29:  real: 165,555,  official: 162,120,  infectious: 165,555,  died: 28,  dead: 4,489

May 30:  real: 166,422,  official: 163,103,  infectious: 166,422,  died: 26,  dead: 4,515

May 31:  real: 167,410,  official: 163,942,  infectious: 167,410,  died: 25,  dead: 4,540

Jun  1:  real: 168,340,  official: 164,769,  infectious: 168,340,  died: 23,  dead: 4,563

Jun  2:  real: 169,218,  official: 165,555,  infectious: 169,218,  died: 22,  dead: 4,585

Jun  3:  real: 170,132,  official: 166,422,  infectious: 170,132,  died: 24,  dead: 4,609

Jun  4:  real: 171,121,  official: 167,410,  infectious: 171,121,  died: 21,  dead: 4,630

Jun  5:  real: 172,114,  official: 168,340,  infectious: 172,114,  died: 18,  dead: 4,648

Jun  6:  real: 173,036,  official: 169,218,  infectious: 173,036,  died: 21,  dead: 4,669

Jun  7:  real: 174,023,  official: 170,132,  infectious: 174,023,  died: 23,  dead: 4,692

Jun  8:  real: 175,218,  official: 171,121,  infectious: 175,218,  died: 19,  dead: 4,711

Jun  9:  real: 176,677,  official: 172,114,  infectious: 176,677,  died: 18,  dead: 4,729

Jun 10:  real: 178,239,  official: 173,036,  infectious: 178,239,  died: 17,  dead: 4,746

Jun 11:  real: 179,831,  official: 174,023,  infectious: 179,831,  died: 17,  dead: 4,763

Jun 12:  real: 181,298,  official: 175,218,  infectious: 181,298,  died: 15,  dead: 4,778

Jun 13:  real: 182,727,  official: 176,677,  infectious: 182,727,  died: 14,  dead: 4,792

Jun 14:  real: 184,031,  official: 178,239,  infectious: 184,031,  died: 15,  dead: 4,807

Jun 15:  real: 185,245,  official: 179,831,  infectious: 185,245,  died: 18,  dead: 4,825

Jun 16:  real: 186,493,  official: 181,298,  infectious: 186,493,  died: 17,  dead: 4,842

Jun 17:  real: 187,685,  official: 182,727,  infectious: 187,685,  died: 19,  dead: 4,861

Jun 18:  real: 188,897,  official: 184,031,  infectious: 188,897,  died: 21,  dead: 4,882

Jun 19:  real: 190,165,  official: 185,245,  infectious: 190,165,  died: 23,  dead: 4,905

Jun 20:  real: 191,657,  official: 186,493,  infectious: 191,657,  died: 22,  dead: 4,927

Jun 21:  real: 193,115,  official: 187,685,  infectious: 193,115,  died: 23,  dead: 4,950

Jun 22:  real: 194,511,  official: 188,897,  infectious: 194,511,  died: 24,  dead: 4,974

Jun 23:  real: 195,883,  official: 190,165,  infectious: 195,883,  died: 27,  dead: 5,001

Jun 24:  real: 197,239,  official: 191,657,  infectious: 197,239,  died: 24,  dead: 5,025

Jun 25:  real: 198,613,  official: 193,115,  infectious: 198,613,  died: 21,  dead: 5,046

Jun 26:  real: 199,906,  official: 194,511,  infectious: 199,906,  died: 19,  dead: 5,065

Jun 27:  real: 201,098,  official: 195,883,  infectious: 201,098,  died: 17,  dead: 5,082

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 201,250,  official: 197,239,  infectious: 23,408,  died: 20,  dead: 5,102

Jun 29:  real: 201,404,  official: 198,613,  infectious: 23,780,  died: 20,  dead: 5,122

Jun 30:  real: 201,552,  official: 199,906,  infectious: 22,749,  died: 19,  dead: 5,141

Jul  1:  real: 201,692,  official: 201,098,  infectious: 21,476,  died: 18,  dead: 5,159

Jul  2:  real: 201,823,  official: 201,250,  infectious: 20,120,  died: 18,  dead: 5,177

Jul  3:  real: 201,945,  official: 201,404,  infectious: 18,743,  died: 19,  dead: 5,196

Jul  4:  real: 202,058,  official: 201,552,  infectious: 17,461,  died: 17,  dead: 5,213

Jul  5:  real: 202,163,  official: 201,692,  infectious: 16,201,  died: 16,  dead: 5,229

Jul  6:  real: 202,261,  official: 201,823,  infectious: 15,034,  died: 0,  dead: 5,229

Jul  7:  real: 202,352,  official: 201,945,  infectious: 13,943,  died: 20,  dead: 5,249

Jul  8:  real: 202,436,  official: 202,058,  infectious: 12,856,  died: 20,  dead: 5,269

Jul  9:  real: 202,514,  official: 202,163,  infectious: 11,963,  died: 19,  dead: 5,288

Jul 10:  real: 202,586,  official: 202,261,  infectious: 11,046,  died: 18,  dead: 5,306

Jul 11:  real: 202,651,  official: 202,352,  infectious: 10,079,  died: 18,  dead: 5,324

Jul 12:  real: 202,709,  official: 202,436,  infectious: 8,931,  died: 19,  dead: 5,343

Jul 13:  real: 202,760,  official: 202,514,  infectious: 7,804,  died: 17,  dead: 5,360

Jul 14:  real: 202,804,  official: 202,586,  infectious: 6,721,  died: 16,  dead: 5,376

Jul 15:  real: 202,841,  official: 202,651,  infectious: 5,651,  died: 3,  dead: 5,379

Jul 16:  real: 202,871,  official: 202,709,  infectious: 4,590,  died: 3,  dead: 5,382

Jul 17:  real: 202,894,  official: 202,760,  infectious: 3,509,  died: 3,  dead: 5,385

Jul 18:  real: 202,910,  official: 202,804,  infectious: 2,485,  died: 3,  dead: 5,388

Jul 19:  real: 202,920,  official: 202,841,  infectious: 1,538,  died: 3,  dead: 5,391

Jul 20:  real: 202,929,  official: 202,871,  infectious: 1,417,  died: 3,  dead: 5,394

Jul 21:  real: 202,937,  official: 202,894,  infectious: 1,289,  died: 2,  dead: 5,396

Jul 22:  real: 202,945,  official: 202,910,  infectious: 1,168,  died: 2,  dead: 5,398

Jul 23:  real: 202,952,  official: 202,920,  infectious: 1,053,  died: 2,  dead: 5,400

Jul 24:  real: 202,958,  official: 202,929,  infectious: 946,  died: 2,  dead: 5,402

Jul 25:  real: 202,964,  official: 202,937,  infectious: 848,  died: 2,  dead: 5,404

Jul 26:  real: 202,969,  official: 202,945,  infectious: 756,  died: 1,  dead: 5,405

Jul 27:  real: 202,973,  official: 202,952,  infectious: 672,  died: 1,  dead: 5,406

Jul 28:  real: 202,977,  official: 202,958,  infectious: 594,  died: 1,  dead: 5,407

Jul 29:  real: 202,980,  official: 202,964,  infectious: 522,  died: 1,  dead: 5,408

Jul 30:  real: 202,983,  official: 202,969,  infectious: 457,  died: 1,  dead: 5,409

Jul 31:  real: 202,986,  official: 202,973,  infectious: 395,  died: 1,  dead: 5,410

Aug  1:  real: 202,988,  official: 202,977,  infectious: 338,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  2:  real: 202,990,  official: 202,980,  infectious: 287,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  3:  real: 202,992,  official: 202,983,  infectious: 240,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  4:  real: 202,993,  official: 202,986,  infectious: 200,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  5:  real: 202,994,  official: 202,988,  infectious: 166,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  6:  real: 202,995,  official: 202,990,  infectious: 136,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  7:  real: 202,996,  official: 202,992,  infectious: 112,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  8:  real: 202,997,  official: 202,993,  infectious: 94,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug  9:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,994,  infectious: 81,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 10:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,995,  infectious: 73,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 11:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,996,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 12:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,997,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 13:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 14:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 46,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 15:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 16:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 17:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 18:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 19:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 20:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 21:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 22:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 23:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 24:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 25:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 26:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 27:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 28:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 29:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 30:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Aug 31:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  1:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  2:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  3:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  4:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  5:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  6:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  7:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  8:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep  9:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 10:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 11:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 12:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 13:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 14:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 15:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 16:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 17:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 18:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 19:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 20:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 21:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 22:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 23:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 24:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 25:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 26:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 27:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 28:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 29:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Sep 30:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  1:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  2:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  3:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  4:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  5:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  6:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  7:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  8:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct  9:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 10:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 11:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 12:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 13:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 14:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 15:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 16:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 17:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 18:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 19:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 20:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 21:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 22:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 23:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 24:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 25:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 26:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 27:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 28:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 29:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 30:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Oct 31:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  1:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  2:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  3:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  4:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  5:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  6:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  7:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  8:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov  9:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 10:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 11:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 12:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 13:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 14:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 15:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 16:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 17:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 18:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 19:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 20:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 21:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 22:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 23:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 24:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 25:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 26:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 27:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 28:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 29:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Nov 30:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  1:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  2:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  3:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  4:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  5:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  6:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  7:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  8:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec  9:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 10:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 11:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 12:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 13:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 14:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 15:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 16:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 17:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 18:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 19:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 20:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 21:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 22:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 23:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 24:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 25:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 26:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 27:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 28:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 29:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 30:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

Dec 31:  real: 202,998,  official: 202,998,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,410

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         20:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      5,410:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      5,410:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.65%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0065
Official uninf: 59,798,902 / Adult Pop.: 60,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.66%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0034
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.65%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0065