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COVID-19 Forecast for Italy, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
3692 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Italy HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 3692 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Italy run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Italy are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          3:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     34,748:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     34,748:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Italy COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.001, at 100.06% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 3,861,  official: 1,702,  infectious: 3,861,  died: 41,  dead: 41

Mar  2:  real: 4,639,  official: 2,038,  infectious: 4,639,  died: 11,  dead: 52

Mar  3:  real: 5,886,  official: 2,504,  infectious: 5,886,  died: 27,  dead: 79

Mar  4:  real: 7,380,  official: 3,092,  infectious: 7,380,  died: 28,  dead: 107

Mar  5:  real: 9,179,  official: 3,861,  infectious: 9,179,  died: 41,  dead: 148

Mar  6:  real: 10,156,  official: 4,639,  infectious: 10,156,  died: 49,  dead: 197

Mar  7:  real: 12,469,  official: 5,886,  infectious: 12,469,  died: 36,  dead: 233

Mar  8:  real: 15,122,  official: 7,380,  infectious: 15,122,  died: 133,  dead: 366

Mar  9:  real: 17,670,  official: 9,179,  infectious: 17,670,  died: 97,  dead: 463

Mar 10:  real: 21,169,  official: 10,156,  infectious: 21,169,  died: 168,  dead: 631

Mar 11:  real: 24,762,  official: 12,469,  infectious: 24,762,  died: 196,  dead: 827

Mar 12:  real: 27,997,  official: 15,122,  infectious: 27,997,  died: 189,  dead: 1,016

Mar 13:  real: 31,524,  official: 17,670,  infectious: 31,524,  died: 250,  dead: 1,266

Mar 14:  real: 35,731,  official: 21,169,  infectious: 35,731,  died: 175,  dead: 1,441

Mar 15:  real: 41,054,  official: 24,762,  infectious: 41,054,  died: 367,  dead: 1,808

Mar 16:  real: 47,041,  official: 27,997,  infectious: 47,041,  died: 348,  dead: 2,156

Mar 17:  real: 53,594,  official: 31,524,  infectious: 53,594,  died: 344,  dead: 2,500

Mar 18:  real: 59,153,  official: 35,731,  infectious: 59,153,  died: 474,  dead: 2,974

Mar 19:  real: 63,935,  official: 41,054,  infectious: 63,935,  died: 426,  dead: 3,400

Mar 20:  real: 69,174,  official: 47,041,  infectious: 69,174,  died: 626,  dead: 4,026

Mar 21:  real: 74,371,  official: 53,594,  infectious: 74,371,  died: 792,  dead: 4,818

Mar 22:  real: 80,572,  official: 59,153,  infectious: 80,572,  died: 650,  dead: 5,468

Mar 23:  real: 86,478,  official: 63,935,  infectious: 86,478,  died: 600,  dead: 6,068

Mar 24:  real: 92,450,  official: 69,174,  infectious: 92,450,  died: 742,  dead: 6,810

Mar 25:  real: 97,664,  official: 74,371,  infectious: 97,664,  died: 682,  dead: 7,492

Mar 26:  real: 101,710,  official: 80,572,  infectious: 101,710,  died: 711,  dead: 8,203

Mar 27:  real: 105,762,  official: 86,478,  infectious: 105,762,  died: 917,  dead: 9,120

Mar 28:  real: 110,544,  official: 92,450,  infectious: 110,544,  died: 887,  dead: 10,007

Mar 29:  real: 115,212,  official: 97,664,  infectious: 115,212,  died: 755,  dead: 10,762

Mar 30:  real: 119,796,  official: 101,710,  infectious: 119,796,  died: 811,  dead: 11,573

Mar 31:  real: 124,602,  official: 105,762,  infectious: 124,602,  died: 836,  dead: 12,409

Apr  1:  real: 128,919,  official: 110,544,  infectious: 128,919,  died: 726,  dead: 13,135

Apr  2:  real: 132,518,  official: 115,212,  infectious: 132,518,  died: 759,  dead: 13,894

Apr  3:  real: 135,555,  official: 119,796,  infectious: 135,555,  died: 765,  dead: 14,659

Apr  4:  real: 139,389,  official: 124,602,  infectious: 139,389,  died: 680,  dead: 15,339

Apr  5:  real: 143,592,  official: 128,919,  infectious: 143,592,  died: 524,  dead: 15,863

Apr  6:  real: 147,542,  official: 132,518,  infectious: 147,542,  died: 635,  dead: 16,498

Apr  7:  real: 152,238,  official: 135,555,  infectious: 152,238,  died: 603,  dead: 17,101

Apr  8:  real: 156,332,  official: 139,389,  infectious: 156,332,  died: 541,  dead: 17,642

Apr  9:  real: 159,485,  official: 143,592,  infectious: 159,485,  died: 609,  dead: 18,251

Apr 10:  real: 162,458,  official: 147,542,  infectious: 162,458,  died: 569,  dead: 18,820

Apr 11:  real: 165,124,  official: 152,238,  infectious: 165,124,  died: 618,  dead: 19,438

Apr 12:  real: 168,911,  official: 156,332,  infectious: 168,911,  died: 430,  dead: 19,868

Apr 13:  real: 172,405,  official: 159,485,  infectious: 172,405,  died: 565,  dead: 20,433

Apr 14:  real: 175,897,  official: 162,458,  infectious: 175,897,  died: 601,  dead: 21,034

Apr 15:  real: 178,944,  official: 165,124,  infectious: 178,944,  died: 577,  dead: 21,611

Apr 16:  real: 181,195,  official: 168,911,  infectious: 181,195,  died: 524,  dead: 22,135

Apr 17:  real: 183,922,  official: 172,405,  infectious: 183,922,  died: 563,  dead: 22,698

Apr 18:  real: 187,292,  official: 175,897,  infectious: 187,292,  died: 481,  dead: 23,179

Apr 19:  real: 189,936,  official: 178,944,  infectious: 189,936,  died: 432,  dead: 23,611

Apr 20:  real: 192,958,  official: 181,195,  infectious: 192,958,  died: 453,  dead: 24,064

Apr 21:  real: 195,315,  official: 183,922,  infectious: 195,315,  died: 533,  dead: 24,597

Apr 22:  real: 197,640,  official: 187,292,  infectious: 197,640,  died: 436,  dead: 25,033

Apr 23:  real: 199,378,  official: 189,936,  infectious: 199,378,  died: 463,  dead: 25,496

Apr 24:  real: 201,470,  official: 192,958,  infectious: 201,470,  died: 419,  dead: 25,915

Apr 25:  real: 203,556,  official: 195,315,  infectious: 203,556,  died: 414,  dead: 26,329

Apr 26:  real: 205,428,  official: 197,640,  infectious: 205,428,  died: 260,  dead: 26,589

Apr 27:  real: 207,394,  official: 199,378,  infectious: 207,394,  died: 332,  dead: 26,921

Apr 28:  real: 209,294,  official: 201,470,  infectious: 209,294,  died: 381,  dead: 27,302

Apr 29:  real: 210,683,  official: 203,556,  infectious: 210,683,  died: 322,  dead: 27,624

Apr 30:  real: 211,905,  official: 205,428,  infectious: 211,905,  died: 284,  dead: 27,908

May  1:  real: 212,980,  official: 207,394,  infectious: 212,980,  died: 269,  dead: 28,177

May  2:  real: 214,425,  official: 209,294,  infectious: 214,425,  died: 473,  dead: 28,650

May  3:  real: 215,827,  official: 210,683,  infectious: 215,827,  died: 174,  dead: 28,824

May  4:  real: 217,155,  official: 211,905,  infectious: 217,155,  died: 195,  dead: 29,019

May  5:  real: 218,238,  official: 212,980,  infectious: 218,238,  died: 236,  dead: 29,255

May  6:  real: 219,040,  official: 214,425,  infectious: 219,040,  died: 368,  dead: 29,623

May  7:  real: 219,785,  official: 215,827,  infectious: 219,785,  died: 274,  dead: 29,897

May  8:  real: 221,188,  official: 217,155,  infectious: 221,188,  died: 243,  dead: 30,140

May  9:  real: 222,076,  official: 218,238,  infectious: 222,076,  died: 194,  dead: 30,334

May 10:  real: 223,069,  official: 219,040,  infectious: 223,069,  died: 165,  dead: 30,499

May 11:  real: 223,858,  official: 219,785,  infectious: 223,858,  died: 179,  dead: 30,678

May 12:  real: 224,733,  official: 221,188,  infectious: 224,733,  died: 172,  dead: 30,850

May 13:  real: 225,408,  official: 222,076,  infectious: 225,408,  died: 195,  dead: 31,045

May 14:  real: 225,859,  official: 223,069,  infectious: 225,859,  died: 262,  dead: 31,307

May 15:  real: 226,672,  official: 223,858,  infectious: 226,672,  died: 242,  dead: 31,549

May 16:  real: 227,337,  official: 224,733,  infectious: 227,337,  died: 153,  dead: 31,702

May 17:  real: 227,980,  official: 225,408,  infectious: 227,980,  died: 145,  dead: 31,847

May 18:  real: 228,633,  official: 225,859,  infectious: 228,633,  died: 99,  dead: 31,946

May 19:  real: 229,303,  official: 226,672,  infectious: 229,303,  died: 162,  dead: 32,108

May 20:  real: 229,835,  official: 227,337,  infectious: 229,835,  died: 161,  dead: 32,269

May 21:  real: 230,135,  official: 227,980,  infectious: 230,135,  died: 156,  dead: 32,425

May 22:  real: 230,532,  official: 228,633,  infectious: 230,532,  died: 130,  dead: 32,555

May 23:  real: 231,117,  official: 229,303,  infectious: 231,117,  died: 119,  dead: 32,674

May 24:  real: 231,711,  official: 229,835,  infectious: 231,711,  died: 50,  dead: 32,724

May 25:  real: 232,228,  official: 230,135,  infectious: 232,228,  died: 92,  dead: 32,816

May 26:  real: 232,645,  official: 230,532,  infectious: 232,645,  died: 78,  dead: 32,894

May 27:  real: 232,979,  official: 231,117,  infectious: 232,979,  died: 117,  dead: 33,011

May 28:  real: 233,179,  official: 231,711,  infectious: 233,179,  died: 70,  dead: 33,081

May 29:  real: 233,498,  official: 232,228,  infectious: 233,498,  died: 87,  dead: 33,168

May 30:  real: 233,820,  official: 232,645,  infectious: 233,820,  died: 111,  dead: 33,279

May 31:  real: 233,997,  official: 232,979,  infectious: 233,997,  died: 75,  dead: 33,354

Jun  1:  real: 234,516,  official: 233,179,  infectious: 234,516,  died: 60,  dead: 33,414

Jun  2:  real: 234,786,  official: 233,498,  infectious: 234,786,  died: 55,  dead: 33,469

Jun  3:  real: 234,983,  official: 233,820,  infectious: 234,983,  died: 71,  dead: 33,540

Jun  4:  real: 235,263,  official: 233,997,  infectious: 235,263,  died: 88,  dead: 33,628

Jun  5:  real: 235,546,  official: 234,516,  infectious: 235,546,  died: 85,  dead: 33,713

Jun  6:  real: 235,748,  official: 234,786,  infectious: 235,748,  died: 72,  dead: 33,785

Jun  7:  real: 236,128,  official: 234,983,  infectious: 236,128,  died: 53,  dead: 33,838

Jun  8:  real: 236,291,  official: 235,263,  infectious: 236,291,  died: 65,  dead: 33,903

Jun  9:  real: 236,638,  official: 235,546,  infectious: 236,638,  died: 79,  dead: 33,982

Jun 10:  real: 236,975,  official: 235,748,  infectious: 236,975,  died: 71,  dead: 34,053

Jun 11:  real: 237,276,  official: 236,128,  infectious: 237,276,  died: 53,  dead: 34,106

Jun 12:  real: 237,486,  official: 236,291,  infectious: 237,486,  died: 56,  dead: 34,162

Jun 13:  real: 237,815,  official: 236,638,  infectious: 237,815,  died: 78,  dead: 34,240

Jun 14:  real: 238,147,  official: 236,975,  infectious: 238,147,  died: 44,  dead: 34,284

Jun 15:  real: 238,398,  official: 237,276,  infectious: 238,398,  died: 26,  dead: 34,310

Jun 16:  real: 238,662,  official: 237,486,  infectious: 238,662,  died: 34,  dead: 34,344

Jun 17:  real: 238,886,  official: 237,815,  infectious: 238,886,  died: 43,  dead: 34,387

Jun 18:  real: 239,107,  official: 238,147,  infectious: 239,107,  died: 66,  dead: 34,453

Jun 19:  real: 239,220,  official: 238,398,  infectious: 239,220,  died: 47,  dead: 34,500

Jun 20:  real: 239,410,  official: 238,662,  infectious: 239,410,  died: 49,  dead: 34,549

Jun 21:  real: 239,706,  official: 238,886,  infectious: 239,706,  died: 24,  dead: 34,573

Jun 22:  real: 239,961,  official: 239,107,  infectious: 239,961,  died: 23,  dead: 34,596

Jun 23:  real: 240,136,  official: 239,220,  infectious: 240,136,  died: 18,  dead: 34,614

Jun 24:  real: 240,310,  official: 239,410,  infectious: 240,310,  died: 30,  dead: 34,644

Jun 25:  real: 240,436,  official: 239,706,  infectious: 240,436,  died: 34,  dead: 34,678

Jun 26:  real: 240,578,  official: 239,961,  infectious: 240,578,  died: 30,  dead: 34,708

Jun 27:  real: 240,760,  official: 240,136,  infectious: 240,760,  died: 8,  dead: 34,716

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 240,763,  official: 240,310,  infectious: 4,142,  died: 2,  dead: 34,718

Jun 29:  real: 240,766,  official: 240,436,  infectious: 4,014,  died: 3,  dead: 34,721

Jun 30:  real: 240,768,  official: 240,578,  infectious: 3,866,  died: 3,  dead: 34,724

Jul  1:  real: 240,770,  official: 240,760,  infectious: 3,554,  died: 2,  dead: 34,726

Jul  2:  real: 240,772,  official: 240,763,  infectious: 3,235,  died: 2,  dead: 34,728

Jul  3:  real: 240,774,  official: 240,766,  infectious: 2,953,  died: 1,  dead: 34,729

Jul  4:  real: 240,776,  official: 240,768,  infectious: 2,756,  died: 1,  dead: 34,730

Jul  5:  real: 240,778,  official: 240,770,  infectious: 2,466,  died: 2,  dead: 34,732

Jul  6:  real: 240,779,  official: 240,772,  infectious: 2,180,  died: 0,  dead: 34,732

Jul  7:  real: 240,780,  official: 240,774,  infectious: 1,955,  died: 2,  dead: 34,734

Jul  8:  real: 240,781,  official: 240,776,  infectious: 1,716,  died: 3,  dead: 34,737

Jul  9:  real: 240,782,  official: 240,778,  infectious: 1,536,  died: 3,  dead: 34,740

Jul 10:  real: 240,783,  official: 240,779,  infectious: 1,358,  died: 2,  dead: 34,742

Jul 11:  real: 240,784,  official: 240,780,  infectious: 1,266,  died: 2,  dead: 34,744

Jul 12:  real: 240,785,  official: 240,781,  infectious: 1,113,  died: 1,  dead: 34,745

Jul 13:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,782,  infectious: 876,  died: 1,  dead: 34,746

Jul 14:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,783,  infectious: 671,  died: 2,  dead: 34,748

Jul 15:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,784,  infectious: 531,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 16:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,785,  infectious: 390,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 17:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 288,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 18:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 173,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 19:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 20:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 21:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 22:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 23:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 24:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 25:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 26:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 27:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 28:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 29:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 30:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Jul 31:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  1:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  2:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  3:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  4:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  5:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  6:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  7:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  8:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug  9:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 10:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 11:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 12:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 13:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 14:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 15:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 16:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 17:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 18:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 19:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 20:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 21:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 22:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 23:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 24:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 25:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 26:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 27:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 28:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 29:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 30:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Aug 31:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  1:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  2:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  3:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  4:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  5:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  6:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  7:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  8:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep  9:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 10:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 11:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 12:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 13:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 14:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 15:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 16:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 17:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 18:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 19:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 20:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 21:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 22:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 23:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 24:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 25:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 26:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 27:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 28:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 29:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Sep 30:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  1:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  2:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  3:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  4:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  5:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  6:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  7:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  8:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct  9:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 10:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 11:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 12:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 13:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 14:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 15:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 16:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 17:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 18:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 19:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 20:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 21:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 22:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 23:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 24:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 25:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 26:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 27:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 28:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 29:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 30:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Oct 31:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  1:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  2:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  3:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  4:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  5:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  6:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  7:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  8:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov  9:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 10:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 11:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 12:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 13:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 14:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 15:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 16:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 17:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 18:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 19:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 20:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 21:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 22:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 23:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 24:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 25:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 26:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 27:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 28:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 29:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Nov 30:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  1:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  2:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  3:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  4:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  5:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  6:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  7:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  8:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec  9:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 10:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 11:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 12:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 13:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 14:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 15:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 16:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 17:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 18:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 19:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 20:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 21:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 22:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 23:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 24:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 25:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 26:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 27:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 28:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 29:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 30:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

Dec 31:  real: 240,786,  official: 240,786,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 34,748

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          3:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     34,748:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     34,748:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.06%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0006
Official uninf: 49,759,240 / Adult Pop.: 50,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.52%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0048
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.06%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0006