COVID-19 Forecast for China, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
16968 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL China HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 16968 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in China run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in China are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      4,634:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      4,634:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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China COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.000, at 100.01% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 80,552,  official: 80,026,  infectious: 80,552,  died: 2,912,  dead: 2,912

Mar  2:  real: 80,651,  official: 80,151,  infectious: 80,651,  died: 31,  dead: 2,943

Mar  3:  real: 80,695,  official: 80,270,  infectious: 80,695,  died: 38,  dead: 2,981

Mar  4:  real: 80,735,  official: 80,409,  infectious: 80,735,  died: 31,  dead: 3,012

Mar  5:  real: 80,754,  official: 80,552,  infectious: 80,754,  died: 30,  dead: 3,042

Mar  6:  real: 80,778,  official: 80,651,  infectious: 80,778,  died: 28,  dead: 3,070

Mar  7:  real: 80,793,  official: 80,695,  infectious: 80,793,  died: 27,  dead: 3,097

Mar  8:  real: 80,813,  official: 80,735,  infectious: 80,813,  died: 22,  dead: 3,119

Mar  9:  real: 80,824,  official: 80,754,  infectious: 80,824,  died: 17,  dead: 3,136

Mar 10:  real: 80,844,  official: 80,778,  infectious: 80,844,  died: 22,  dead: 3,158

Mar 11:  real: 80,860,  official: 80,793,  infectious: 80,860,  died: 11,  dead: 3,169

Mar 12:  real: 80,881,  official: 80,813,  infectious: 80,881,  died: 7,  dead: 3,176

Mar 13:  real: 80,894,  official: 80,824,  infectious: 80,894,  died: 13,  dead: 3,189

Mar 14:  real: 80,928,  official: 80,844,  infectious: 80,928,  died: 10,  dead: 3,199

Mar 15:  real: 80,967,  official: 80,860,  infectious: 80,967,  died: 14,  dead: 3,213

Mar 16:  real: 81,008,  official: 80,881,  infectious: 81,008,  died: 13,  dead: 3,226

Mar 17:  real: 81,054,  official: 80,894,  infectious: 81,054,  died: 11,  dead: 3,237

Mar 18:  real: 81,093,  official: 80,928,  infectious: 81,093,  died: 8,  dead: 3,245

Mar 19:  real: 81,171,  official: 80,967,  infectious: 81,171,  died: 3,  dead: 3,248

Mar 20:  real: 81,218,  official: 81,008,  infectious: 81,218,  died: 7,  dead: 3,255

Mar 21:  real: 81,285,  official: 81,054,  infectious: 81,285,  died: 6,  dead: 3,261

Mar 22:  real: 81,340,  official: 81,093,  infectious: 81,340,  died: 9,  dead: 3,270

Mar 23:  real: 81,394,  official: 81,171,  infectious: 81,394,  died: 7,  dead: 3,277

Mar 24:  real: 81,439,  official: 81,218,  infectious: 81,439,  died: 4,  dead: 3,281

Mar 25:  real: 81,439,  official: 81,285,  infectious: 81,439,  died: 6,  dead: 3,287

Mar 26:  real: 81,518,  official: 81,340,  infectious: 81,518,  died: 5,  dead: 3,292

Mar 27:  real: 81,554,  official: 81,394,  infectious: 81,554,  died: 3,  dead: 3,295

Mar 28:  real: 81,589,  official: 81,439,  infectious: 81,589,  died: 5,  dead: 3,300

Mar 29:  real: 81,620,  official: 81,439,  infectious: 81,620,  died: 0,  dead: 3,300

Mar 30:  real: 81,639,  official: 81,518,  infectious: 81,639,  died: 5,  dead: 3,305

Mar 31:  real: 81,669,  official: 81,554,  infectious: 81,669,  died: 7,  dead: 3,312

Apr  1:  real: 81,708,  official: 81,589,  infectious: 81,708,  died: 6,  dead: 3,318

Apr  2:  real: 81,740,  official: 81,620,  infectious: 81,740,  died: 4,  dead: 3,322

Apr  3:  real: 81,802,  official: 81,639,  infectious: 81,802,  died: 4,  dead: 3,326

Apr  4:  real: 81,865,  official: 81,669,  infectious: 81,865,  died: 3,  dead: 3,329

Apr  5:  real: 81,907,  official: 81,708,  infectious: 81,907,  died: 2,  dead: 3,331

Apr  6:  real: 81,953,  official: 81,740,  infectious: 81,953,  died: 0,  dead: 3,331

Apr  7:  real: 82,052,  official: 81,802,  infectious: 82,052,  died: 2,  dead: 3,333

Apr  8:  real: 82,160,  official: 81,865,  infectious: 82,160,  died: 2,  dead: 3,335

Apr  9:  real: 82,249,  official: 81,907,  infectious: 82,249,  died: 1,  dead: 3,336

Apr 10:  real: 82,295,  official: 81,953,  infectious: 82,295,  died: 3,  dead: 3,339

Apr 11:  real: 82,341,  official: 82,052,  infectious: 82,341,  died: 0,  dead: 3,339

Apr 12:  real: 82,367,  official: 82,160,  infectious: 82,367,  died: 2,  dead: 3,341

Apr 13:  real: 82,692,  official: 82,249,  infectious: 82,692,  died: 0,  dead: 3,341

Apr 14:  real: 82,719,  official: 82,295,  infectious: 82,719,  died: 1,  dead: 3,342

Apr 15:  real: 82,735,  official: 82,341,  infectious: 82,735,  died: 0,  dead: 3,342

Apr 16:  real: 82,747,  official: 82,367,  infectious: 82,747,  died: 0,  dead: 3,342

Apr 17:  real: 82,758,  official: 82,692,  infectious: 82,758,  died: 1,290,  dead: 4,632

Apr 18:  real: 82,788,  official: 82,719,  infectious: 82,788,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 19:  real: 82,798,  official: 82,735,  infectious: 82,798,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 20:  real: 82,804,  official: 82,747,  infectious: 82,804,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 21:  real: 82,816,  official: 82,758,  infectious: 82,816,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 22:  real: 82,827,  official: 82,788,  infectious: 82,827,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 23:  real: 82,830,  official: 82,798,  infectious: 82,830,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 24:  real: 82,836,  official: 82,804,  infectious: 82,836,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 25:  real: 82,858,  official: 82,816,  infectious: 82,858,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 26:  real: 82,862,  official: 82,827,  infectious: 82,862,  died: 0,  dead: 4,632

Apr 27:  real: 82,874,  official: 82,830,  infectious: 82,874,  died: 1,  dead: 4,633

Apr 28:  real: 82,875,  official: 82,836,  infectious: 82,875,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

Apr 29:  real: 82,877,  official: 82,858,  infectious: 82,877,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

Apr 30:  real: 82,880,  official: 82,862,  infectious: 82,880,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  1:  real: 82,881,  official: 82,874,  infectious: 82,881,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  2:  real: 82,883,  official: 82,875,  infectious: 82,883,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  3:  real: 82,885,  official: 82,877,  infectious: 82,885,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  4:  real: 82,886,  official: 82,880,  infectious: 82,886,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  5:  real: 82,887,  official: 82,881,  infectious: 82,887,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  6:  real: 82,901,  official: 82,883,  infectious: 82,901,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  7:  real: 82,918,  official: 82,885,  infectious: 82,918,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  8:  real: 82,919,  official: 82,886,  infectious: 82,919,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May  9:  real: 82,926,  official: 82,887,  infectious: 82,926,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 10:  real: 82,929,  official: 82,901,  infectious: 82,929,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 11:  real: 82,933,  official: 82,918,  infectious: 82,933,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 12:  real: 82,941,  official: 82,919,  infectious: 82,941,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 13:  real: 82,947,  official: 82,926,  infectious: 82,947,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 14:  real: 82,954,  official: 82,929,  infectious: 82,954,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 15:  real: 82,960,  official: 82,933,  infectious: 82,960,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 16:  real: 82,965,  official: 82,941,  infectious: 82,965,  died: 0,  dead: 4,633

May 17:  real: 82,967,  official: 82,947,  infectious: 82,967,  died: 1,  dead: 4,634

May 18:  real: 82,971,  official: 82,954,  infectious: 82,971,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 19:  real: 82,971,  official: 82,960,  infectious: 82,971,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 20:  real: 82,974,  official: 82,965,  infectious: 82,974,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 21:  real: 82,985,  official: 82,967,  infectious: 82,985,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 22:  real: 82,992,  official: 82,971,  infectious: 82,992,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 23:  real: 82,993,  official: 82,971,  infectious: 82,993,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 24:  real: 82,995,  official: 82,974,  infectious: 82,995,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 25:  real: 82,995,  official: 82,985,  infectious: 82,995,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 26:  real: 82,999,  official: 82,992,  infectious: 82,999,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 27:  real: 83,001,  official: 82,993,  infectious: 83,001,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 28:  real: 83,017,  official: 82,995,  infectious: 83,017,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 29:  real: 83,021,  official: 82,995,  infectious: 83,021,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 30:  real: 83,021,  official: 82,999,  infectious: 83,021,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

May 31:  real: 83,022,  official: 83,001,  infectious: 83,022,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  1:  real: 83,027,  official: 83,017,  infectious: 83,027,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  2:  real: 83,030,  official: 83,021,  infectious: 83,030,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  3:  real: 83,036,  official: 83,021,  infectious: 83,036,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  4:  real: 83,040,  official: 83,022,  infectious: 83,040,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  5:  real: 83,043,  official: 83,027,  infectious: 83,043,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  6:  real: 83,046,  official: 83,030,  infectious: 83,046,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  7:  real: 83,057,  official: 83,036,  infectious: 83,057,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  8:  real: 83,064,  official: 83,040,  infectious: 83,064,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun  9:  real: 83,075,  official: 83,043,  infectious: 83,075,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 10:  real: 83,132,  official: 83,046,  infectious: 83,132,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 11:  real: 83,181,  official: 83,057,  infectious: 83,181,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 12:  real: 83,221,  official: 83,064,  infectious: 83,221,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 13:  real: 83,265,  official: 83,075,  infectious: 83,265,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 14:  real: 83,293,  official: 83,132,  infectious: 83,293,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 15:  real: 83,325,  official: 83,181,  infectious: 83,325,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 16:  real: 83,352,  official: 83,221,  infectious: 83,352,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 17:  real: 83,378,  official: 83,265,  infectious: 83,378,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 18:  real: 83,396,  official: 83,293,  infectious: 83,396,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 19:  real: 83,418,  official: 83,325,  infectious: 83,418,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 20:  real: 83,430,  official: 83,352,  infectious: 83,430,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 21:  real: 83,449,  official: 83,378,  infectious: 83,449,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 22:  real: 83,462,  official: 83,396,  infectious: 83,462,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 23:  real: 83,483,  official: 83,418,  infectious: 83,483,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 24:  real: 83,500,  official: 83,430,  infectious: 83,500,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 25:  real: 83,512,  official: 83,449,  infectious: 83,512,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 26:  real: 83,531,  official: 83,462,  infectious: 83,531,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 27:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,483,  infectious: 83,534,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,500,  infectious: 431,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 29:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,512,  infectious: 424,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jun 30:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,531,  infectious: 415,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  1:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 404,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  2:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 355,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  3:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 314,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  4:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 278,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  5:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 240,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  6:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 215,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  7:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 185,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  8:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 162,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul  9:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 139,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 10:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 123,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 11:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 12:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 13:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 76,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 14:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 15:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 46,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 16:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 17:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 18:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 19:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 20:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 21:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 22:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 23:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 24:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 25:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 26:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 27:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 28:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 29:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 30:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Jul 31:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  1:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  2:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  3:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  4:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  5:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  6:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  7:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  8:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug  9:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 10:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 11:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 12:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 13:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 14:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 15:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 16:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 17:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 18:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 19:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 20:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 21:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 22:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 23:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 24:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 25:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 26:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 27:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 28:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 29:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 30:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Aug 31:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  1:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  2:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  3:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  4:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  5:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  6:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  7:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  8:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep  9:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 10:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 11:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 12:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 13:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 14:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 15:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 16:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 17:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 18:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 19:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 20:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 21:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 22:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 23:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 24:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 25:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 26:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 27:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 28:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 29:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Sep 30:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  1:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  2:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  3:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  4:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  5:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  6:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  7:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  8:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct  9:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 10:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 11:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 12:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 13:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 14:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 15:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 16:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 17:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 18:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 19:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 20:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 21:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 22:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 23:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 24:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 25:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 26:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 27:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 28:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 29:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 30:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Oct 31:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  1:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  2:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  3:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  4:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  5:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  6:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  7:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  8:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov  9:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 10:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 11:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 12:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 13:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 14:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 15:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 16:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 17:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 18:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 19:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 20:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 21:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 22:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 23:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 24:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 25:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 26:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 27:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 28:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 29:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Nov 30:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  1:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  2:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  3:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  4:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  5:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  6:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  7:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  8:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec  9:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 10:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 11:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 12:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 13:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 14:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 15:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 16:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 17:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 18:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 19:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 20:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 21:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 22:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 23:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 24:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 25:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 26:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 27:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 28:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 29:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 30:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

Dec 31:  real: 83,534,  official: 83,534,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 4,634

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      4,634:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      4,634:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.01%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0001
Official uninf: 1,099,916,466 / Adult Pop.: 1,100,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.99%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0001
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.01%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0001