COVID-19 Forecast for Kuwait, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
159 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Kuwait HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 159 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Kuwait run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Kuwait are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       200 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         32:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        241:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        424:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        665:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Kuwait COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.015, at 101.46% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 58,  official: 46,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 58,  official: 56,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 61,  official: 56,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 64,  official: 56,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 65,  official: 58,  infectious: 65,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 69,  official: 58,  infectious: 69,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 72,  official: 61,  infectious: 72,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 80,  official: 64,  infectious: 80,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 100,  official: 65,  infectious: 100,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 104,  official: 69,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 112,  official: 72,  infectious: 112,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 123,  official: 80,  infectious: 123,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 130,  official: 100,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 142,  official: 104,  infectious: 142,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 148,  official: 112,  infectious: 148,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 159,  official: 123,  infectious: 159,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 176,  official: 130,  infectious: 176,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 188,  official: 142,  infectious: 188,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 189,  official: 148,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 191,  official: 159,  infectious: 191,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 195,  official: 176,  infectious: 195,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 208,  official: 188,  infectious: 208,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 23:  real: 225,  official: 189,  infectious: 225,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 24:  real: 235,  official: 191,  infectious: 235,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 25:  real: 255,  official: 195,  infectious: 255,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 26:  real: 266,  official: 208,  infectious: 266,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 27:  real: 289,  official: 225,  infectious: 289,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 28:  real: 317,  official: 235,  infectious: 317,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 29:  real: 342,  official: 255,  infectious: 342,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 30:  real: 417,  official: 266,  infectious: 417,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 31:  real: 479,  official: 289,  infectious: 479,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  1:  real: 556,  official: 317,  infectious: 556,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  2:  real: 665,  official: 342,  infectious: 665,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  3:  real: 743,  official: 417,  infectious: 743,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  4:  real: 855,  official: 479,  infectious: 855,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Apr  5:  real: 910,  official: 556,  infectious: 910,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr  6:  real: 993,  official: 665,  infectious: 993,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr  7:  real: 1,154,  official: 743,  infectious: 1,154,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr  8:  real: 1,234,  official: 855,  infectious: 1,234,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr  9:  real: 1,300,  official: 910,  infectious: 1,300,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr 10:  real: 1,355,  official: 993,  infectious: 1,355,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr 11:  real: 1,405,  official: 1,154,  infectious: 1,405,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr 12:  real: 1,524,  official: 1,234,  infectious: 1,524,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Apr 13:  real: 1,658,  official: 1,300,  infectious: 1,658,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Apr 14:  real: 1,751,  official: 1,355,  infectious: 1,751,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Apr 15:  real: 1,915,  official: 1,405,  infectious: 1,915,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 16:  real: 1,995,  official: 1,524,  infectious: 1,995,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 17:  real: 2,080,  official: 1,658,  infectious: 2,080,  died: 2,  dead: 5

Apr 18:  real: 2,248,  official: 1,751,  infectious: 2,248,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Apr 19:  real: 2,399,  official: 1,915,  infectious: 2,399,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Apr 20:  real: 2,614,  official: 1,995,  infectious: 2,614,  died: 2,  dead: 9

Apr 21:  real: 2,892,  official: 2,080,  infectious: 2,892,  died: 2,  dead: 11

Apr 22:  real: 3,075,  official: 2,248,  infectious: 3,075,  died: 2,  dead: 13

Apr 23:  real: 3,288,  official: 2,399,  infectious: 3,288,  died: 1,  dead: 14

Apr 24:  real: 3,440,  official: 2,614,  infectious: 3,440,  died: 1,  dead: 15

Apr 25:  real: 3,740,  official: 2,892,  infectious: 3,740,  died: 4,  dead: 19

Apr 26:  real: 4,024,  official: 3,075,  infectious: 4,024,  died: 1,  dead: 20

Apr 27:  real: 4,377,  official: 3,288,  infectious: 4,377,  died: 2,  dead: 22

Apr 28:  real: 4,619,  official: 3,440,  infectious: 4,619,  died: 1,  dead: 23

Apr 29:  real: 4,983,  official: 3,740,  infectious: 4,983,  died: 1,  dead: 24

Apr 30:  real: 5,278,  official: 4,024,  infectious: 5,278,  died: 2,  dead: 26

May  1:  real: 5,804,  official: 4,377,  infectious: 5,804,  died: 4,  dead: 30

May  2:  real: 6,289,  official: 4,619,  infectious: 6,289,  died: 3,  dead: 33

May  3:  real: 6,567,  official: 4,983,  infectious: 6,567,  died: 5,  dead: 38

May  4:  real: 7,208,  official: 5,278,  infectious: 7,208,  died: 2,  dead: 40

May  5:  real: 7,623,  official: 5,804,  infectious: 7,623,  died: 0,  dead: 40

May  6:  real: 8,688,  official: 6,289,  infectious: 8,688,  died: 2,  dead: 42

May  7:  real: 9,286,  official: 6,567,  infectious: 9,286,  died: 2,  dead: 44

May  8:  real: 10,277,  official: 7,208,  infectious: 10,277,  died: 3,  dead: 47

May  9:  real: 11,028,  official: 7,623,  infectious: 11,028,  died: 2,  dead: 49

May 10:  real: 11,975,  official: 8,688,  infectious: 11,975,  died: 9,  dead: 58

May 11:  real: 12,860,  official: 9,286,  infectious: 12,860,  died: 7,  dead: 65

May 12:  real: 13,802,  official: 10,277,  infectious: 13,802,  died: 10,  dead: 75

May 13:  real: 14,850,  official: 11,028,  infectious: 14,850,  died: 7,  dead: 82

May 14:  real: 15,691,  official: 11,975,  infectious: 15,691,  died: 6,  dead: 88

May 15:  real: 16,764,  official: 12,860,  infectious: 16,764,  died: 8,  dead: 96

May 16:  real: 17,568,  official: 13,802,  infectious: 17,568,  died: 11,  dead: 107

May 17:  real: 18,609,  official: 14,850,  infectious: 18,609,  died: 5,  dead: 112

May 18:  real: 19,564,  official: 15,691,  infectious: 19,564,  died: 6,  dead: 118

May 19:  real: 20,464,  official: 16,764,  infectious: 20,464,  died: 3,  dead: 121

May 20:  real: 21,302,  official: 17,568,  infectious: 21,302,  died: 3,  dead: 124

May 21:  real: 21,967,  official: 18,609,  infectious: 21,967,  died: 5,  dead: 129

May 22:  real: 22,575,  official: 19,564,  infectious: 22,575,  died: 9,  dead: 138

May 23:  real: 23,267,  official: 20,464,  infectious: 23,267,  died: 10,  dead: 148

May 24:  real: 24,112,  official: 21,302,  infectious: 24,112,  died: 8,  dead: 156

May 25:  real: 25,184,  official: 21,967,  infectious: 25,184,  died: 9,  dead: 165

May 26:  real: 26,192,  official: 22,575,  infectious: 26,192,  died: 7,  dead: 172

May 27:  real: 27,043,  official: 23,267,  infectious: 27,043,  died: 3,  dead: 175

May 28:  real: 27,762,  official: 24,112,  infectious: 27,762,  died: 10,  dead: 185

May 29:  real: 28,649,  official: 25,184,  infectious: 28,649,  died: 9,  dead: 194

May 30:  real: 29,359,  official: 26,192,  infectious: 29,359,  died: 11,  dead: 205

May 31:  real: 29,921,  official: 27,043,  infectious: 29,921,  died: 7,  dead: 212

Jun  1:  real: 30,644,  official: 27,762,  infectious: 30,644,  died: 8,  dead: 220

Jun  2:  real: 31,131,  official: 28,649,  infectious: 31,131,  died: 6,  dead: 226

Jun  3:  real: 31,848,  official: 29,359,  infectious: 31,848,  died: 4,  dead: 230

Jun  4:  real: 32,510,  official: 29,921,  infectious: 32,510,  died: 6,  dead: 236

Jun  5:  real: 33,140,  official: 30,644,  infectious: 33,140,  died: 8,  dead: 244

Jun  6:  real: 33,823,  official: 31,131,  infectious: 33,823,  died: 10,  dead: 254

Jun  7:  real: 34,432,  official: 31,848,  infectious: 34,432,  died: 10,  dead: 264

Jun  8:  real: 34,952,  official: 32,510,  infectious: 34,952,  died: 5,  dead: 269

Jun  9:  real: 35,466,  official: 33,140,  infectious: 35,466,  died: 4,  dead: 273

Jun 10:  real: 35,920,  official: 33,823,  infectious: 35,920,  died: 2,  dead: 275

Jun 11:  real: 36,431,  official: 34,432,  infectious: 36,431,  died: 4,  dead: 279

Jun 12:  real: 36,958,  official: 34,952,  infectious: 36,958,  died: 6,  dead: 285

Jun 13:  real: 37,533,  official: 35,466,  infectious: 37,533,  died: 4,  dead: 289

Jun 14:  real: 38,074,  official: 35,920,  infectious: 38,074,  died: 7,  dead: 296

Jun 15:  real: 38,678,  official: 36,431,  infectious: 38,678,  died: 2,  dead: 298

Jun 16:  real: 39,145,  official: 36,958,  infectious: 39,145,  died: 5,  dead: 303

Jun 17:  real: 39,650,  official: 37,533,  infectious: 39,650,  died: 3,  dead: 306

Jun 18:  real: 40,291,  official: 38,074,  infectious: 40,291,  died: 2,  dead: 308

Jun 19:  real: 41,033,  official: 38,678,  infectious: 41,033,  died: 5,  dead: 313

Jun 20:  real: 41,879,  official: 39,145,  infectious: 41,879,  died: 6,  dead: 319

Jun 21:  real: 42,788,  official: 39,650,  infectious: 42,788,  died: 7,  dead: 326

Jun 22:  real: 43,703,  official: 40,291,  infectious: 43,703,  died: 4,  dead: 330

Jun 23:  real: 44,391,  official: 41,033,  infectious: 44,391,  died: 4,  dead: 334

Jun 24:  real: 44,942,  official: 41,879,  infectious: 44,942,  died: 3,  dead: 337

Jun 25:  real: 45,524,  official: 42,788,  infectious: 45,524,  died: 2,  dead: 339

Jun 26:  real: 46,195,  official: 43,703,  infectious: 46,195,  died: 2,  dead: 341

Jun 27:  real: 46,940,  official: 44,391,  infectious: 46,940,  died: 3,  dead: 344

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 47,101,  official: 44,942,  infectious: 10,932,  died: 11,  dead: 355


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 47,265,  official: 45,524,  infectious: 11,170,  died: 12,  dead: 367

Jun 30:  real: 47,424,  official: 46,195,  infectious: 10,804,  died: 12,  dead: 379

Jul  1:  real: 47,577,  official: 46,940,  infectious: 10,430,  died: 9,  dead: 388

Jul  2:  real: 47,725,  official: 47,101,  infectious: 10,089,  died: 7,  dead: 395

Jul  3:  real: 47,867,  official: 47,265,  infectious: 9,676,  died: 28,  dead: 423

Jul  4:  real: 48,003,  official: 47,424,  infectious: 9,276,  died: 32,  dead: 455

Jul  5:  real: 48,133,  official: 47,577,  infectious: 8,851,  died: 32,  dead: 487

Jul  6:  real: 48,257,  official: 47,725,  infectious: 8,449,  died: 17,  dead: 504

Jul  7:  real: 48,374,  official: 47,867,  infectious: 7,981,  died: 14,  dead: 518

Jul  8:  real: 48,486,  official: 48,003,  infectious: 7,604,  died: 14,  dead: 532

Jul  9:  real: 48,593,  official: 48,133,  infectious: 7,275,  died: 17,  dead: 549

Jul 10:  real: 48,693,  official: 48,257,  infectious: 6,831,  died: 18,  dead: 567

Jul 11:  real: 48,786,  official: 48,374,  infectious: 6,311,  died: 8,  dead: 575

Jul 12:  real: 48,870,  official: 48,486,  infectious: 5,703,  died: 8,  dead: 583

Jul 13:  real: 48,944,  official: 48,593,  infectious: 5,038,  died: 8,  dead: 591

Jul 14:  real: 49,008,  official: 48,693,  infectious: 4,361,  died: 7,  dead: 598

Jul 15:  real: 49,065,  official: 48,786,  infectious: 3,856,  died: 7,  dead: 605

Jul 16:  real: 49,116,  official: 48,870,  infectious: 3,453,  died: 7,  dead: 612

Jul 17:  real: 49,160,  official: 48,944,  infectious: 3,018,  died: 6,  dead: 618

Jul 18:  real: 49,197,  official: 49,008,  infectious: 2,508,  died: 6,  dead: 624

Jul 19:  real: 49,225,  official: 49,065,  infectious: 1,932,  died: 6,  dead: 630

Jul 20:  real: 49,252,  official: 49,116,  infectious: 1,819,  died: 5,  dead: 635

Jul 21:  real: 49,277,  official: 49,160,  infectious: 1,696,  died: 5,  dead: 640

Jul 22:  real: 49,300,  official: 49,197,  infectious: 1,577,  died: 5,  dead: 645


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 23:  real: 49,321,  official: 49,225,  infectious: 1,461,  died: 5,  dead: 650

Jul 24:  real: 49,341,  official: 49,252,  infectious: 1,347,  died: 4,  dead: 654

Jul 25:  real: 49,359,  official: 49,277,  infectious: 1,239,  died: 4,  dead: 658

Jul 26:  real: 49,376,  official: 49,300,  infectious: 1,136,  died: 3,  dead: 661

Jul 27:  real: 49,391,  official: 49,321,  infectious: 1,040,  died: 0,  dead: 661

Jul 28:  real: 49,405,  official: 49,341,  infectious: 950,  died: 0,  dead: 661

Jul 29:  real: 49,418,  official: 49,359,  infectious: 864,  died: 0,  dead: 661

Jul 30:  real: 49,429,  official: 49,376,  infectious: 782,  died: 0,  dead: 661

Jul 31:  real: 49,439,  official: 49,391,  infectious: 703,  died: 1,  dead: 662

Aug  1:  real: 49,448,  official: 49,405,  infectious: 629,  died: 1,  dead: 663

Aug  2:  real: 49,456,  official: 49,418,  infectious: 559,  died: 1,  dead: 664

Aug  3:  real: 49,463,  official: 49,429,  infectious: 496,  died: 1,  dead: 665

Aug  4:  real: 49,469,  official: 49,439,  infectious: 442,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug  5:  real: 49,475,  official: 49,448,  infectious: 395,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug  6:  real: 49,480,  official: 49,456,  infectious: 352,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug  7:  real: 49,485,  official: 49,463,  infectious: 314,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug  8:  real: 49,489,  official: 49,469,  infectious: 281,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug  9:  real: 49,493,  official: 49,475,  infectious: 254,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 10:  real: 49,496,  official: 49,480,  infectious: 234,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 11:  real: 49,499,  official: 49,485,  infectious: 215,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 12:  real: 49,502,  official: 49,489,  infectious: 196,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 13:  real: 49,505,  official: 49,493,  infectious: 179,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 14:  real: 49,507,  official: 49,496,  infectious: 164,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 15:  real: 49,509,  official: 49,499,  infectious: 150,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 16:  real: 49,511,  official: 49,502,  infectious: 136,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 17:  real: 49,513,  official: 49,505,  infectious: 123,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 18:  real: 49,515,  official: 49,507,  infectious: 112,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 19:  real: 49,516,  official: 49,509,  infectious: 102,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 20:  real: 49,517,  official: 49,511,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 21:  real: 49,518,  official: 49,513,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 22:  real: 49,519,  official: 49,515,  infectious: 75,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 23:  real: 49,520,  official: 49,516,  infectious: 68,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 24:  real: 49,521,  official: 49,517,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 25:  real: 49,522,  official: 49,518,  infectious: 57,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 26:  real: 49,523,  official: 49,519,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 27:  real: 49,524,  official: 49,520,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 28:  real: 49,525,  official: 49,521,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 29:  real: 49,526,  official: 49,522,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 30:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,523,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Aug 31:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,524,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  1:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,525,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  2:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,526,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  3:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  4:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  5:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  6:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  7:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  8:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep  9:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 10:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 11:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 12:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 13:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 14:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 15:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 16:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 17:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 18:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 19:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 20:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 21:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 22:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 23:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 24:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 25:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 26:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 27:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 28:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 29:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Sep 30:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  1:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  2:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  3:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  4:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  5:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  6:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  7:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  8:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct  9:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 10:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 11:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 12:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 13:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 14:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 15:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 16:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 17:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 18:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 19:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 20:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 21:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 22:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 23:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 24:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 25:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 26:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 27:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 28:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 29:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 30:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Oct 31:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  1:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  2:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  3:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  4:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  5:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  6:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  7:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  8:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov  9:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 10:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 11:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 12:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 13:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 14:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 15:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 16:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 17:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 18:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 19:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 20:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 21:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 22:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 23:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 24:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 25:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 26:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 27:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 28:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 29:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Nov 30:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  1:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  2:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  3:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  4:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  5:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  6:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  7:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  8:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec  9:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 10:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 11:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 12:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 13:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 14:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 15:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 16:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 17:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 18:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 19:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 20:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 21:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 22:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 23:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 24:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 25:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 26:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 27:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 28:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 29:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 30:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

Dec 31:  real: 49,527,  official: 49,527,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 665

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       200 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         32:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        241:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        424:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        665:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.46%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0146
Official uninf: 2,953,060 / Adult Pop.: 3,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 98.44%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0159
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.48%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0148