Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.
G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH spaceHover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.
If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.
How to read the Log Chart: Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths. Right, dotted lines: projections. Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on. Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different. Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20. A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in, and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat. Forced deaths start about a week after when the red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region, meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators. Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region, and you run out of staffed hospital bed space. Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon. As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink in the black Death rate simulation line at Today. Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated, in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away. Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions. We are working to improve this simulation factor soon. Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical. Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes. Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off. As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this. Since the log Growth curve has recently changed and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S., we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast. Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected. Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.
Wed, Jul 1, 2020:
The curve is now 10x in 89 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Brazil run out of space,
is forecast to be NEVER.
And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Brazil are used up,
is forecast to be NEVER.
May the officials use this time wisely.
As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 657: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 74,651: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 74,651: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.
Brazil COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul 1, 2020: (using Beta = 0.026, at 102.61% Growth per day) Starting Run: Mar 1: real: 8, official: 2, infectious: 8, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 2: real: 13, official: 2, infectious: 13, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 3: real: 19, official: 2, infectious: 19, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 4: real: 25, official: 3, infectious: 25, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 5: real: 25, official: 8, infectious: 25, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 6: real: 34, official: 13, infectious: 34, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 7: real: 52, official: 19, infectious: 52, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 8: real: 77, official: 25, infectious: 77, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 9: real: 151, official: 25, infectious: 151, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 10: real: 151, official: 34, infectious: 151, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 11: real: 200, official: 52, infectious: 200, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 12: real: 234, official: 77, infectious: 234, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 13: real: 346, official: 151, infectious: 346, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 14: real: 529, official: 151, infectious: 529, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 15: real: 640, official: 200, infectious: 640, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 16: real: 970, official: 234, infectious: 970, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 17: real: 1,178, official: 346, infectious: 1,178, died: 1, dead: 1 Mar 18: real: 1,546, official: 529, infectious: 1,546, died: 3, dead: 4 Mar 19: real: 1,924, official: 640, infectious: 1,924, died: 3, dead: 7 Mar 20: real: 2,247, official: 970, infectious: 2,247, died: 4, dead: 11 Mar 21: real: 2,554, official: 1,178, infectious: 2,554, died: 7, dead: 18 Mar 22: real: 2,985, official: 1,546, infectious: 2,985, died: 7, dead: 25 Mar 23: real: 3,417, official: 1,924, infectious: 3,417, died: 9, dead: 34 Mar 24: real: 3,904, official: 2,247, infectious: 3,904, died: 12, dead: 46 Mar 25: real: 4,256, official: 2,554, infectious: 4,256, died: 13, dead: 59 Mar 26: real: 4,630, official: 2,985, infectious: 4,630, died: 18, dead: 77 Mar 27: real: 5,717, official: 3,417, infectious: 5,717, died: 15, dead: 92 Mar 28: real: 6,880, official: 3,904, infectious: 6,880, died: 22, dead: 114 Mar 29: real: 8,044, official: 4,256, infectious: 8,044, died: 22, dead: 136 Mar 30: real: 9,194, official: 4,630, infectious: 9,194, died: 27, dead: 163 Mar 31: real: 10,360, official: 5,717, infectious: 10,360, died: 38, dead: 201 Apr 1: real: 11,254, official: 6,880, infectious: 11,254, died: 41, dead: 242 Apr 2: real: 12,183, official: 8,044, infectious: 12,183, died: 82, dead: 324 Apr 3: real: 14,034, official: 9,194, infectious: 14,034, died: 39, dead: 363 Apr 4: real: 16,188, official: 10,360, infectious: 16,188, died: 82, dead: 445 Apr 5: real: 18,145, official: 11,254, infectious: 18,145, died: 41, dead: 486 Apr 6: real: 19,789, official: 12,183, infectious: 19,789, died: 78, dead: 564 Apr 7: real: 20,962, official: 14,034, infectious: 20,962, died: 122, dead: 686 Apr 8: real: 22,192, official: 16,188, infectious: 22,192, died: 134, dead: 820 Apr 9: real: 23,430, official: 18,145, infectious: 23,430, died: 134, dead: 954 Apr 10: real: 25,262, official: 19,789, infectious: 25,262, died: 114, dead: 1,068 Apr 11: real: 28,610, official: 20,962, infectious: 28,610, died: 72, dead: 1,140 Apr 12: real: 30,683, official: 22,192, infectious: 30,683, died: 83, dead: 1,223 Apr 13: real: 33,682, official: 23,430, infectious: 33,682, died: 105, dead: 1,328 Apr 14: real: 36,722, official: 25,262, infectious: 36,722, died: 204, dead: 1,532 Apr 15: real: 38,654, official: 28,610, infectious: 38,654, died: 225, dead: 1,757 Apr 16: real: 40,743, official: 30,683, infectious: 40,743, died: 190, dead: 1,947 Apr 17: real: 43,079, official: 33,682, infectious: 43,079, died: 194, dead: 2,141 Apr 18: real: 45,757, official: 36,722, infectious: 45,757, died: 220, dead: 2,361 Apr 19: real: 49,492, official: 38,654, infectious: 49,492, died: 101, dead: 2,462 Apr 20: real: 52,995, official: 40,743, infectious: 52,995, died: 125, dead: 2,587 Apr 21: real: 59,196, official: 43,079, infectious: 59,196, died: 154, dead: 2,741 Apr 22: real: 62,859, official: 45,757, infectious: 62,859, died: 165, dead: 2,906 Apr 23: real: 66,501, official: 49,492, infectious: 66,501, died: 407, dead: 3,313 Apr 24: real: 72,899, official: 52,995, infectious: 72,899, died: 357, dead: 3,670 Apr 25: real: 79,361, official: 59,196, infectious: 79,361, died: 375, dead: 4,045 Apr 26: real: 85,380, official: 62,859, infectious: 85,380, died: 226, dead: 4,271 Apr 27: real: 92,109, official: 66,501, infectious: 92,109, died: 272, dead: 4,543 Apr 28: real: 96,559, official: 72,899, infectious: 96,559, died: 520, dead: 5,063 Apr 29: real: 101,147, official: 79,361, infectious: 101,147, died: 448, dead: 5,511 Apr 30: real: 108,266, official: 85,380, infectious: 108,266, died: 390, dead: 5,901 May 1: real: 114,715, official: 92,109, infectious: 114,715, died: 509, dead: 6,410 May 2: real: 126,611, official: 96,559, infectious: 126,611, died: 340, dead: 6,750 May 3: real: 135,693, official: 101,147, infectious: 135,693, died: 275, dead: 7,025 May 4: real: 145,892, official: 108,266, infectious: 145,892, died: 318, dead: 7,343 May 5: real: 156,061, official: 114,715, infectious: 156,061, died: 578, dead: 7,921 May 6: real: 162,699, official: 126,611, infectious: 162,699, died: 667, dead: 8,588 May 7: real: 169,143, official: 135,693, infectious: 169,143, died: 600, dead: 9,188 May 8: real: 177,602, official: 145,892, infectious: 177,602, died: 804, dead: 9,992 May 9: real: 189,157, official: 156,061, infectious: 189,157, died: 664, dead: 10,656 May 10: real: 202,918, official: 162,699, infectious: 202,918, died: 467, dead: 11,123 May 11: real: 218,223, official: 169,143, infectious: 218,223, died: 502, dead: 11,625 May 12: real: 233,142, official: 177,602, infectious: 233,142, died: 779, dead: 12,404 May 13: real: 241,080, official: 189,157, infectious: 241,080, died: 754, dead: 13,158 May 14: real: 255,368, official: 202,918, infectious: 255,368, died: 835, dead: 13,993 May 15: real: 271,885, official: 218,223, infectious: 271,885, died: 824, dead: 14,817 May 16: real: 293,357, official: 233,142, infectious: 293,357, died: 816, dead: 15,633 May 17: real: 310,921, official: 241,080, infectious: 310,921, died: 485, dead: 16,118 May 18: real: 330,890, official: 255,368, infectious: 330,890, died: 735, dead: 16,853 May 19: real: 347,398, official: 271,885, infectious: 347,398, died: 1,130, dead: 17,983 May 20: real: 363,618, official: 293,357, infectious: 363,618, died: 911, dead: 18,894 May 21: real: 376,669, official: 310,921, infectious: 376,669, died: 1,188, dead: 20,082 May 22: real: 392,360, official: 330,890, infectious: 392,360, died: 966, dead: 21,048 May 23: real: 414,661, official: 347,398, infectious: 414,661, died: 965, dead: 22,013 May 24: real: 438,812, official: 363,618, infectious: 438,812, died: 703, dead: 22,716 May 25: real: 468,338, official: 376,669, infectious: 468,338, died: 806, dead: 23,522 May 26: real: 498,440, official: 392,360, infectious: 498,440, died: 1,027, dead: 24,549 May 27: real: 514,849, official: 414,661, infectious: 514,849, died: 1,148, dead: 25,697 May 28: real: 529,405, official: 438,812, infectious: 529,405, died: 1,067, dead: 26,764 May 29: real: 556,668, official: 468,338, infectious: 556,668, died: 1,180, dead: 27,944 May 30: real: 583,980, official: 498,440, infectious: 583,980, died: 890, dead: 28,834 May 31: real: 615,870, official: 514,849, infectious: 615,870, died: 480, dead: 29,314 Jun 1: real: 646,006, official: 529,405, infectious: 646,006, died: 732, dead: 30,046 Jun 2: real: 673,587, official: 556,668, infectious: 673,587, died: 1,232, dead: 31,278 Jun 3: real: 691,962, official: 583,980, infectious: 691,962, died: 1,269, dead: 32,547 Jun 4: real: 710,887, official: 615,870, infectious: 710,887, died: 1,492, dead: 34,039 Jun 5: real: 742,084, official: 646,006, infectious: 742,084, died: 1,008, dead: 35,047 Jun 6: real: 775,184, official: 673,587, infectious: 775,184, died: 910, dead: 35,957 Jun 7: real: 805,649, official: 691,962, infectious: 805,649, died: 542, dead: 36,499 Jun 8: real: 829,902, official: 710,887, infectious: 829,902, died: 813, dead: 37,312 Jun 9: real: 850,796, official: 742,084, infectious: 850,796, died: 1,185, dead: 38,497 Jun 10: real: 867,882, official: 775,184, infectious: 867,882, died: 1,300, dead: 39,797 Jun 11: real: 891,556, official: 805,649, infectious: 891,556, died: 1,261, dead: 41,058 Jun 12: real: 928,834, official: 829,902, infectious: 928,834, died: 843, dead: 41,901 Jun 13: real: 960,309, official: 850,796, infectious: 960,309, died: 890, dead: 42,791 Jun 14: real: 983,359, official: 867,882, infectious: 983,359, died: 598, dead: 43,389 Jun 15: real: 1,038,568, official: 891,556, infectious: 1,038,568, died: 729, dead: 44,118 Jun 16: real: 1,070,139, official: 928,834, infectious: 1,070,139, died: 1,338, dead: 45,456 Jun 17: real: 1,086,990, official: 960,309, infectious: 1,086,990, died: 1,209, dead: 46,665 Jun 18: real: 1,111,348, official: 983,359, infectious: 1,111,348, died: 1,204, dead: 47,869 Jun 19: real: 1,151,479, official: 1,038,568, infectious: 1,151,479, died: 1,221, dead: 49,090 Jun 20: real: 1,192,474, official: 1,070,139, infectious: 1,192,474, died: 968, dead: 50,058 Jun 21: real: 1,233,147, official: 1,086,990, infectious: 1,233,147, died: 601, dead: 50,659 Jun 22: real: 1,280,054, official: 1,111,348, infectious: 1,280,054, died: 748, dead: 51,407 Jun 23: real: 1,315,941, official: 1,151,479, infectious: 1,315,941, died: 1,364, dead: 52,771 Jun 24: real: 1,345,254, official: 1,192,474, infectious: 1,345,254, died: 1,103, dead: 53,874 Jun 25: real: 1,370,488, official: 1,233,147, infectious: 1,370,488, died: 1,180, dead: 55,054 Jun 26: real: 1,408,485, official: 1,280,054, infectious: 1,408,485, died: 1,055, dead: 56,109 Jun 27: real: 1,453,369, official: 1,315,941, infectious: 1,453,369, died: 994, dead: 57,103 ...simulation engine starts here... Jun 28: real: 1,467,947, official: 1,345,254, infectious: 557,491, died: 574, dead: 57,677 Jun 29: real: 1,483,030, official: 1,370,488, infectious: 576,857, died: 570, dead: 58,247 Jun 30: real: 1,497,802, official: 1,408,485, infectious: 565,007, died: 657, dead: 58,904 Jul 1: real: 1,512,343, official: 1,453,369, infectious: 556,228, died: 503, dead: 59,407 Jul 2: real: 1,526,722, official: 1,467,947, infectious: 550,073, died: 410, dead: 59,817 Jul 3: real: 1,540,778, official: 1,483,030, infectious: 537,769, died: 353, dead: 60,170 Jul 4: real: 1,554,269, official: 1,497,802, infectious: 516,230, died: 532, dead: 60,702 Jul 5: real: 1,567,337, official: 1,512,343, infectious: 500,094, died: 629, dead: 61,331 Jul 6: real: 1,580,151, official: 1,526,722, infectious: 490,416, died: 0, dead: 61,331 Jul 7: real: 1,591,974, official: 1,540,778, infectious: 452,510, died: 574, dead: 61,905 Jul 8: real: 1,603,277, official: 1,554,269, infectious: 432,637, died: 570, dead: 62,475 Jul 9: real: 1,614,459, official: 1,567,337, infectious: 428,036, died: 657, dead: 63,132 Jul 10: real: 1,625,348, official: 1,580,151, infectious: 416,852, died: 503, dead: 63,635 Jul 11: real: 1,635,613, official: 1,591,974, infectious: 392,986, died: 410, dead: 64,045 Jul 12: real: 1,645,229, official: 1,603,277, infectious: 368,179, died: 353, dead: 64,398 Jul 13: real: 1,654,188, official: 1,614,459, infectious: 343,047, died: 532, dead: 64,930 Jul 14: real: 1,662,345, official: 1,625,348, infectious: 312,355, died: 629, dead: 65,559 Jul 15: real: 1,669,916, official: 1,635,613, infectious: 289,928, died: 408, dead: 65,967 Jul 16: real: 1,677,019, official: 1,645,229, infectious: 272,033, died: 422, dead: 66,389 Jul 17: real: 1,683,727, official: 1,654,188, infectious: 256,904, died: 414, dead: 66,803 Jul 18: real: 1,689,765, official: 1,662,345, infectious: 231,270, died: 407, dead: 67,210 Jul 19: real: 1,694,982, official: 1,669,916, infectious: 199,815, died: 403, dead: 67,613 Jul 20: real: 1,699,994, official: 1,677,019, infectious: 191,969, died: 393, dead: 68,006 Jul 21: real: 1,704,771, official: 1,683,727, infectious: 182,974, died: 378, dead: 68,384 Jul 22: real: 1,709,317, official: 1,689,765, infectious: 174,149, died: 366, dead: 68,750 Jul 23: real: 1,713,635, official: 1,694,982, infectious: 165,404, died: 359, dead: 69,109 Jul 24: real: 1,717,725, official: 1,699,994, infectious: 156,696, died: 331, dead: 69,440 Jul 25: real: 1,721,593, official: 1,704,771, infectious: 148,167, died: 316, dead: 69,756 Jul 26: real: 1,725,247, official: 1,709,317, infectious: 139,974, died: 313, dead: 70,069 Jul 27: real: 1,728,692, official: 1,713,635, infectious: 131,987, died: 305, dead: 70,374 Jul 28: real: 1,731,931, official: 1,717,725, infectious: 124,083, died: 287, dead: 70,661 Jul 29: real: 1,734,982, official: 1,721,593, infectious: 116,903, died: 269, dead: 70,930 Jul 30: real: 1,737,855, official: 1,725,247, infectious: 110,067, died: 250, dead: 71,180 Jul 31: real: 1,740,548, official: 1,728,692, infectious: 103,183, died: 228, dead: 71,408 Aug 1: real: 1,743,064, official: 1,731,931, infectious: 96,402, died: 212, dead: 71,620 Aug 2: real: 1,745,413, official: 1,734,982, infectious: 89,985, died: 199, dead: 71,819 Aug 3: real: 1,747,604, official: 1,737,855, infectious: 83,956, died: 188, dead: 72,007 Aug 4: real: 1,749,648, official: 1,740,548, infectious: 78,330, died: 168, dead: 72,175 Aug 5: real: 1,751,559, official: 1,743,064, infectious: 73,233, died: 146, dead: 72,321 Aug 6: real: 1,753,347, official: 1,745,413, infectious: 68,501, died: 140, dead: 72,461 Aug 7: real: 1,755,019, official: 1,747,604, infectious: 64,051, died: 133, dead: 72,594 Aug 8: real: 1,756,581, official: 1,749,648, infectious: 59,835, died: 127, dead: 72,721 Aug 9: real: 1,758,044, official: 1,751,559, infectious: 56,075, died: 121, dead: 72,842 Aug 10: real: 1,759,424, official: 1,753,347, infectious: 52,898, died: 114, dead: 72,956 Aug 11: real: 1,760,724, official: 1,755,019, infectious: 49,821, died: 108, dead: 73,064 Aug 12: real: 1,761,947, official: 1,756,581, infectious: 46,885, died: 102, dead: 73,166 Aug 13: real: 1,763,097, official: 1,758,044, infectious: 44,086, died: 96, dead: 73,262 Aug 14: real: 1,764,178, official: 1,759,424, infectious: 41,424, died: 90, dead: 73,352 Aug 15: real: 1,765,193, official: 1,760,724, infectious: 38,900, died: 85, dead: 73,437 Aug 16: real: 1,766,146, official: 1,761,947, infectious: 36,511, died: 80, dead: 73,517 Aug 17: real: 1,767,040, official: 1,763,097, infectious: 34,251, died: 75, dead: 73,592 Aug 18: real: 1,767,878, official: 1,764,178, infectious: 32,119, died: 70, dead: 73,662 Aug 19: real: 1,768,664, official: 1,765,193, infectious: 30,115, died: 65, dead: 73,727 Aug 20: real: 1,769,400, official: 1,766,146, infectious: 28,224, died: 61, dead: 73,788 Aug 21: real: 1,770,090, official: 1,767,040, infectious: 26,440, died: 57, dead: 73,845 Aug 22: real: 1,770,736, official: 1,767,878, infectious: 24,766, died: 53, dead: 73,898 Aug 23: real: 1,771,341, official: 1,768,664, infectious: 23,202, died: 50, dead: 73,948 Aug 24: real: 1,771,908, official: 1,769,400, infectious: 21,742, died: 46, dead: 73,994 Aug 25: real: 1,772,440, official: 1,770,090, infectious: 20,381, died: 43, dead: 74,037 Aug 26: real: 1,772,939, official: 1,770,736, infectious: 19,113, died: 40, dead: 74,077 Aug 27: real: 1,773,407, official: 1,771,341, infectious: 17,929, died: 38, dead: 74,115 Aug 28: real: 1,773,846, official: 1,771,908, infectious: 16,822, died: 36, dead: 74,151 Aug 29: real: 1,774,258, official: 1,772,440, infectious: 15,788, died: 34, dead: 74,185 Aug 30: real: 1,774,645, official: 1,772,939, infectious: 14,822, died: 31, dead: 74,216 Aug 31: real: 1,775,008, official: 1,773,407, infectious: 13,918, died: 30, dead: 74,246 Sep 1: real: 1,775,349, official: 1,773,846, infectious: 13,066, died: 28, dead: 74,274 Sep 2: real: 1,775,669, official: 1,774,258, infectious: 12,262, died: 26, dead: 74,300 Sep 3: real: 1,775,969, official: 1,774,645, infectious: 11,506, died: 24, dead: 74,324 Sep 4: real: 1,776,251, official: 1,775,008, infectious: 10,794, died: 23, dead: 74,347 Sep 5: real: 1,776,515, official: 1,775,349, infectious: 10,125, died: 22, dead: 74,369 Sep 6: real: 1,776,763, official: 1,775,669, infectious: 9,497, died: 20, dead: 74,389 Sep 7: real: 1,776,995, official: 1,775,969, infectious: 8,906, died: 19, dead: 74,408 Sep 8: real: 1,777,213, official: 1,776,251, infectious: 8,352, died: 17, dead: 74,425 Sep 9: real: 1,777,417, official: 1,776,515, infectious: 7,832, died: 16, dead: 74,441 Sep 10: real: 1,777,609, official: 1,776,763, infectious: 7,346, died: 15, dead: 74,456 Sep 11: real: 1,777,789, official: 1,776,995, infectious: 6,889, died: 14, dead: 74,470 Sep 12: real: 1,777,958, official: 1,777,213, infectious: 6,462, died: 13, dead: 74,483 Sep 13: real: 1,778,116, official: 1,777,417, infectious: 6,062, died: 12, dead: 74,495 Sep 14: real: 1,778,264, official: 1,777,609, infectious: 5,688, died: 12, dead: 74,507 Sep 15: real: 1,778,403, official: 1,777,789, infectious: 5,336, died: 11, dead: 74,518 Sep 16: real: 1,778,534, official: 1,777,958, infectious: 5,007, died: 10, dead: 74,528 Sep 17: real: 1,778,657, official: 1,778,116, infectious: 4,699, died: 9, dead: 74,537 Sep 18: real: 1,778,772, official: 1,778,264, infectious: 4,409, died: 9, dead: 74,546 Sep 19: real: 1,778,880, official: 1,778,403, infectious: 4,138, died: 8, dead: 74,554 Sep 20: real: 1,778,981, official: 1,778,534, infectious: 3,884, died: 8, dead: 74,562 Sep 21: real: 1,779,076, official: 1,778,657, infectious: 3,644, died: 7, dead: 74,569 Sep 22: real: 1,779,165, official: 1,778,772, infectious: 3,420, died: 7, dead: 74,576 Sep 23: real: 1,779,249, official: 1,778,880, infectious: 3,208, died: 6, dead: 74,582 Sep 24: real: 1,779,328, official: 1,778,981, infectious: 3,010, died: 6, dead: 74,588 Sep 25: real: 1,779,402, official: 1,779,076, infectious: 2,824, died: 6, dead: 74,594 Sep 26: real: 1,779,471, official: 1,779,165, infectious: 2,651, died: 5, dead: 74,599 Sep 27: real: 1,779,536, official: 1,779,249, infectious: 2,488, died: 4, dead: 74,603 Sep 28: real: 1,779,597, official: 1,779,328, infectious: 2,334, died: 4, dead: 74,607 Sep 29: real: 1,779,654, official: 1,779,402, infectious: 2,190, died: 4, dead: 74,611 Sep 30: real: 1,779,708, official: 1,779,471, infectious: 2,055, died: 4, dead: 74,615 Oct 1: real: 1,779,758, official: 1,779,536, infectious: 1,929, died: 3, dead: 74,618 Oct 2: real: 1,779,805, official: 1,779,597, infectious: 1,810, died: 3, dead: 74,621 Oct 3: real: 1,779,849, official: 1,779,654, infectious: 1,698, died: 3, dead: 74,624 Oct 4: real: 1,779,891, official: 1,779,708, infectious: 1,593, died: 3, dead: 74,627 Oct 5: real: 1,779,930, official: 1,779,758, infectious: 1,496, died: 2, dead: 74,629 Oct 6: real: 1,779,967, official: 1,779,805, infectious: 1,405, died: 2, dead: 74,631 Oct 7: real: 1,780,001, official: 1,779,849, infectious: 1,319, died: 2, dead: 74,633 Oct 8: real: 1,780,033, official: 1,779,891, infectious: 1,238, died: 2, dead: 74,635 Oct 9: real: 1,780,063, official: 1,779,930, infectious: 1,162, died: 2, dead: 74,637 Oct 10: real: 1,780,091, official: 1,779,967, infectious: 1,091, died: 2, dead: 74,639 Oct 11: real: 1,780,118, official: 1,780,001, infectious: 1,024, died: 2, dead: 74,641 Oct 12: real: 1,780,143, official: 1,780,033, infectious: 962, died: 1, dead: 74,642 Oct 13: real: 1,780,167, official: 1,780,063, infectious: 903, died: 1, dead: 74,643 Oct 14: real: 1,780,189, official: 1,780,091, infectious: 848, died: 1, dead: 74,644 Oct 15: real: 1,780,210, official: 1,780,118, infectious: 797, died: 1, dead: 74,645 Oct 16: real: 1,780,230, official: 1,780,143, infectious: 749, died: 1, dead: 74,646 Oct 17: real: 1,780,248, official: 1,780,167, infectious: 704, died: 1, dead: 74,647 Oct 18: real: 1,780,265, official: 1,780,189, infectious: 662, died: 1, dead: 74,648 Oct 19: real: 1,780,281, official: 1,780,210, infectious: 622, died: 1, dead: 74,649 Oct 20: real: 1,780,296, official: 1,780,230, infectious: 585, died: 1, dead: 74,650 Oct 21: real: 1,780,310, official: 1,780,248, infectious: 549, died: 1, dead: 74,651 Oct 22: real: 1,780,323, official: 1,780,265, infectious: 515, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 23: real: 1,780,336, official: 1,780,281, infectious: 484, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 24: real: 1,780,348, official: 1,780,296, infectious: 455, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 25: real: 1,780,359, official: 1,780,310, infectious: 428, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 26: real: 1,780,369, official: 1,780,323, infectious: 402, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 27: real: 1,780,379, official: 1,780,336, infectious: 378, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 28: real: 1,780,388, official: 1,780,348, infectious: 355, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 29: real: 1,780,397, official: 1,780,359, infectious: 335, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 30: real: 1,780,405, official: 1,780,369, infectious: 315, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Oct 31: real: 1,780,413, official: 1,780,379, infectious: 297, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 1: real: 1,780,420, official: 1,780,388, infectious: 280, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 2: real: 1,780,427, official: 1,780,397, infectious: 265, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 3: real: 1,780,434, official: 1,780,405, infectious: 250, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 4: real: 1,780,440, official: 1,780,413, infectious: 236, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 5: real: 1,780,446, official: 1,780,420, infectious: 224, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 6: real: 1,780,452, official: 1,780,427, infectious: 212, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 7: real: 1,780,457, official: 1,780,434, infectious: 200, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 8: real: 1,780,462, official: 1,780,440, infectious: 189, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 9: real: 1,780,467, official: 1,780,446, infectious: 178, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 10: real: 1,780,471, official: 1,780,452, infectious: 168, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 11: real: 1,780,475, official: 1,780,457, infectious: 159, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 12: real: 1,780,479, official: 1,780,462, infectious: 150, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 13: real: 1,780,483, official: 1,780,467, infectious: 141, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 14: real: 1,780,486, official: 1,780,471, infectious: 132, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 15: real: 1,780,489, official: 1,780,475, infectious: 125, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 16: real: 1,780,492, official: 1,780,479, infectious: 118, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 17: real: 1,780,495, official: 1,780,483, infectious: 112, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 18: real: 1,780,498, official: 1,780,486, infectious: 106, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 19: real: 1,780,501, official: 1,780,489, infectious: 101, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 20: real: 1,780,504, official: 1,780,492, infectious: 96, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 21: real: 1,780,506, official: 1,780,495, infectious: 92, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 22: real: 1,780,508, official: 1,780,498, infectious: 88, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 23: real: 1,780,510, official: 1,780,501, infectious: 84, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 24: real: 1,780,512, official: 1,780,504, infectious: 80, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 25: real: 1,780,514, official: 1,780,506, infectious: 76, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 26: real: 1,780,516, official: 1,780,508, infectious: 72, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 27: real: 1,780,518, official: 1,780,510, infectious: 68, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 28: real: 1,780,520, official: 1,780,512, infectious: 64, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 29: real: 1,780,522, official: 1,780,514, infectious: 61, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Nov 30: real: 1,780,524, official: 1,780,516, infectious: 58, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 1: real: 1,780,525, official: 1,780,518, infectious: 55, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 2: real: 1,780,526, official: 1,780,520, infectious: 53, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 3: real: 1,780,527, official: 1,780,522, infectious: 50, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 4: real: 1,780,528, official: 1,780,524, infectious: 47, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 5: real: 1,780,529, official: 1,780,525, infectious: 44, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 6: real: 1,780,530, official: 1,780,526, infectious: 42, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 7: real: 1,780,531, official: 1,780,527, infectious: 40, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 8: real: 1,780,532, official: 1,780,528, infectious: 38, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 9: real: 1,780,533, official: 1,780,529, infectious: 36, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 10: real: 1,780,534, official: 1,780,530, infectious: 34, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 11: real: 1,780,535, official: 1,780,531, infectious: 32, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 12: real: 1,780,536, official: 1,780,532, infectious: 30, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 13: real: 1,780,537, official: 1,780,533, infectious: 29, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 14: real: 1,780,538, official: 1,780,534, infectious: 28, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 15: real: 1,780,539, official: 1,780,535, infectious: 27, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 16: real: 1,780,540, official: 1,780,536, infectious: 26, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 17: real: 1,780,541, official: 1,780,537, infectious: 25, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 18: real: 1,780,542, official: 1,780,538, infectious: 24, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 19: real: 1,780,543, official: 1,780,539, infectious: 23, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 20: real: 1,780,544, official: 1,780,540, infectious: 22, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 21: real: 1,780,545, official: 1,780,541, infectious: 21, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 22: real: 1,780,546, official: 1,780,542, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 23: real: 1,780,547, official: 1,780,543, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 24: real: 1,780,548, official: 1,780,544, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 25: real: 1,780,549, official: 1,780,545, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 26: real: 1,780,550, official: 1,780,546, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 27: real: 1,780,551, official: 1,780,547, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 28: real: 1,780,552, official: 1,780,548, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 29: real: 1,780,553, official: 1,780,549, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 30: real: 1,780,554, official: 1,780,550, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 Dec 31: real: 1,780,555, official: 1,780,551, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 74,651 As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 657: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 74,651: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 74,651: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS Math Report: Official Growth: 102.61% = Apparent Beta: 0.0261 Official uninf: 148,546,631 / Adult Pop.: 150,000,000 = Choke Rate: 99.03% Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0098 Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.64% = Adjusted Beta: 0.0264