COVID-19 Forecast for Brazil, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
89 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Brazil HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 89 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Brazil run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Brazil are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        657:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     74,651:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     74,651:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Brazil COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.026, at 102.61% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 8,  official: 2,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 13,  official: 2,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 19,  official: 2,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 25,  official: 3,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 25,  official: 8,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 34,  official: 13,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 52,  official: 19,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 77,  official: 25,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 151,  official: 25,  infectious: 151,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 151,  official: 34,  infectious: 151,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 200,  official: 52,  infectious: 200,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 234,  official: 77,  infectious: 234,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 346,  official: 151,  infectious: 346,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 529,  official: 151,  infectious: 529,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 640,  official: 200,  infectious: 640,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 970,  official: 234,  infectious: 970,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 1,178,  official: 346,  infectious: 1,178,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 18:  real: 1,546,  official: 529,  infectious: 1,546,  died: 3,  dead: 4

Mar 19:  real: 1,924,  official: 640,  infectious: 1,924,  died: 3,  dead: 7

Mar 20:  real: 2,247,  official: 970,  infectious: 2,247,  died: 4,  dead: 11

Mar 21:  real: 2,554,  official: 1,178,  infectious: 2,554,  died: 7,  dead: 18

Mar 22:  real: 2,985,  official: 1,546,  infectious: 2,985,  died: 7,  dead: 25

Mar 23:  real: 3,417,  official: 1,924,  infectious: 3,417,  died: 9,  dead: 34

Mar 24:  real: 3,904,  official: 2,247,  infectious: 3,904,  died: 12,  dead: 46

Mar 25:  real: 4,256,  official: 2,554,  infectious: 4,256,  died: 13,  dead: 59

Mar 26:  real: 4,630,  official: 2,985,  infectious: 4,630,  died: 18,  dead: 77

Mar 27:  real: 5,717,  official: 3,417,  infectious: 5,717,  died: 15,  dead: 92

Mar 28:  real: 6,880,  official: 3,904,  infectious: 6,880,  died: 22,  dead: 114

Mar 29:  real: 8,044,  official: 4,256,  infectious: 8,044,  died: 22,  dead: 136

Mar 30:  real: 9,194,  official: 4,630,  infectious: 9,194,  died: 27,  dead: 163

Mar 31:  real: 10,360,  official: 5,717,  infectious: 10,360,  died: 38,  dead: 201

Apr  1:  real: 11,254,  official: 6,880,  infectious: 11,254,  died: 41,  dead: 242

Apr  2:  real: 12,183,  official: 8,044,  infectious: 12,183,  died: 82,  dead: 324

Apr  3:  real: 14,034,  official: 9,194,  infectious: 14,034,  died: 39,  dead: 363

Apr  4:  real: 16,188,  official: 10,360,  infectious: 16,188,  died: 82,  dead: 445

Apr  5:  real: 18,145,  official: 11,254,  infectious: 18,145,  died: 41,  dead: 486

Apr  6:  real: 19,789,  official: 12,183,  infectious: 19,789,  died: 78,  dead: 564

Apr  7:  real: 20,962,  official: 14,034,  infectious: 20,962,  died: 122,  dead: 686

Apr  8:  real: 22,192,  official: 16,188,  infectious: 22,192,  died: 134,  dead: 820

Apr  9:  real: 23,430,  official: 18,145,  infectious: 23,430,  died: 134,  dead: 954

Apr 10:  real: 25,262,  official: 19,789,  infectious: 25,262,  died: 114,  dead: 1,068

Apr 11:  real: 28,610,  official: 20,962,  infectious: 28,610,  died: 72,  dead: 1,140

Apr 12:  real: 30,683,  official: 22,192,  infectious: 30,683,  died: 83,  dead: 1,223

Apr 13:  real: 33,682,  official: 23,430,  infectious: 33,682,  died: 105,  dead: 1,328

Apr 14:  real: 36,722,  official: 25,262,  infectious: 36,722,  died: 204,  dead: 1,532

Apr 15:  real: 38,654,  official: 28,610,  infectious: 38,654,  died: 225,  dead: 1,757

Apr 16:  real: 40,743,  official: 30,683,  infectious: 40,743,  died: 190,  dead: 1,947

Apr 17:  real: 43,079,  official: 33,682,  infectious: 43,079,  died: 194,  dead: 2,141

Apr 18:  real: 45,757,  official: 36,722,  infectious: 45,757,  died: 220,  dead: 2,361

Apr 19:  real: 49,492,  official: 38,654,  infectious: 49,492,  died: 101,  dead: 2,462

Apr 20:  real: 52,995,  official: 40,743,  infectious: 52,995,  died: 125,  dead: 2,587

Apr 21:  real: 59,196,  official: 43,079,  infectious: 59,196,  died: 154,  dead: 2,741

Apr 22:  real: 62,859,  official: 45,757,  infectious: 62,859,  died: 165,  dead: 2,906

Apr 23:  real: 66,501,  official: 49,492,  infectious: 66,501,  died: 407,  dead: 3,313

Apr 24:  real: 72,899,  official: 52,995,  infectious: 72,899,  died: 357,  dead: 3,670

Apr 25:  real: 79,361,  official: 59,196,  infectious: 79,361,  died: 375,  dead: 4,045

Apr 26:  real: 85,380,  official: 62,859,  infectious: 85,380,  died: 226,  dead: 4,271

Apr 27:  real: 92,109,  official: 66,501,  infectious: 92,109,  died: 272,  dead: 4,543

Apr 28:  real: 96,559,  official: 72,899,  infectious: 96,559,  died: 520,  dead: 5,063

Apr 29:  real: 101,147,  official: 79,361,  infectious: 101,147,  died: 448,  dead: 5,511

Apr 30:  real: 108,266,  official: 85,380,  infectious: 108,266,  died: 390,  dead: 5,901

May  1:  real: 114,715,  official: 92,109,  infectious: 114,715,  died: 509,  dead: 6,410

May  2:  real: 126,611,  official: 96,559,  infectious: 126,611,  died: 340,  dead: 6,750

May  3:  real: 135,693,  official: 101,147,  infectious: 135,693,  died: 275,  dead: 7,025

May  4:  real: 145,892,  official: 108,266,  infectious: 145,892,  died: 318,  dead: 7,343

May  5:  real: 156,061,  official: 114,715,  infectious: 156,061,  died: 578,  dead: 7,921

May  6:  real: 162,699,  official: 126,611,  infectious: 162,699,  died: 667,  dead: 8,588

May  7:  real: 169,143,  official: 135,693,  infectious: 169,143,  died: 600,  dead: 9,188

May  8:  real: 177,602,  official: 145,892,  infectious: 177,602,  died: 804,  dead: 9,992

May  9:  real: 189,157,  official: 156,061,  infectious: 189,157,  died: 664,  dead: 10,656

May 10:  real: 202,918,  official: 162,699,  infectious: 202,918,  died: 467,  dead: 11,123

May 11:  real: 218,223,  official: 169,143,  infectious: 218,223,  died: 502,  dead: 11,625

May 12:  real: 233,142,  official: 177,602,  infectious: 233,142,  died: 779,  dead: 12,404

May 13:  real: 241,080,  official: 189,157,  infectious: 241,080,  died: 754,  dead: 13,158

May 14:  real: 255,368,  official: 202,918,  infectious: 255,368,  died: 835,  dead: 13,993

May 15:  real: 271,885,  official: 218,223,  infectious: 271,885,  died: 824,  dead: 14,817

May 16:  real: 293,357,  official: 233,142,  infectious: 293,357,  died: 816,  dead: 15,633

May 17:  real: 310,921,  official: 241,080,  infectious: 310,921,  died: 485,  dead: 16,118

May 18:  real: 330,890,  official: 255,368,  infectious: 330,890,  died: 735,  dead: 16,853

May 19:  real: 347,398,  official: 271,885,  infectious: 347,398,  died: 1,130,  dead: 17,983

May 20:  real: 363,618,  official: 293,357,  infectious: 363,618,  died: 911,  dead: 18,894

May 21:  real: 376,669,  official: 310,921,  infectious: 376,669,  died: 1,188,  dead: 20,082

May 22:  real: 392,360,  official: 330,890,  infectious: 392,360,  died: 966,  dead: 21,048

May 23:  real: 414,661,  official: 347,398,  infectious: 414,661,  died: 965,  dead: 22,013

May 24:  real: 438,812,  official: 363,618,  infectious: 438,812,  died: 703,  dead: 22,716

May 25:  real: 468,338,  official: 376,669,  infectious: 468,338,  died: 806,  dead: 23,522

May 26:  real: 498,440,  official: 392,360,  infectious: 498,440,  died: 1,027,  dead: 24,549

May 27:  real: 514,849,  official: 414,661,  infectious: 514,849,  died: 1,148,  dead: 25,697

May 28:  real: 529,405,  official: 438,812,  infectious: 529,405,  died: 1,067,  dead: 26,764

May 29:  real: 556,668,  official: 468,338,  infectious: 556,668,  died: 1,180,  dead: 27,944

May 30:  real: 583,980,  official: 498,440,  infectious: 583,980,  died: 890,  dead: 28,834

May 31:  real: 615,870,  official: 514,849,  infectious: 615,870,  died: 480,  dead: 29,314

Jun  1:  real: 646,006,  official: 529,405,  infectious: 646,006,  died: 732,  dead: 30,046

Jun  2:  real: 673,587,  official: 556,668,  infectious: 673,587,  died: 1,232,  dead: 31,278

Jun  3:  real: 691,962,  official: 583,980,  infectious: 691,962,  died: 1,269,  dead: 32,547

Jun  4:  real: 710,887,  official: 615,870,  infectious: 710,887,  died: 1,492,  dead: 34,039

Jun  5:  real: 742,084,  official: 646,006,  infectious: 742,084,  died: 1,008,  dead: 35,047

Jun  6:  real: 775,184,  official: 673,587,  infectious: 775,184,  died: 910,  dead: 35,957

Jun  7:  real: 805,649,  official: 691,962,  infectious: 805,649,  died: 542,  dead: 36,499

Jun  8:  real: 829,902,  official: 710,887,  infectious: 829,902,  died: 813,  dead: 37,312

Jun  9:  real: 850,796,  official: 742,084,  infectious: 850,796,  died: 1,185,  dead: 38,497

Jun 10:  real: 867,882,  official: 775,184,  infectious: 867,882,  died: 1,300,  dead: 39,797

Jun 11:  real: 891,556,  official: 805,649,  infectious: 891,556,  died: 1,261,  dead: 41,058

Jun 12:  real: 928,834,  official: 829,902,  infectious: 928,834,  died: 843,  dead: 41,901

Jun 13:  real: 960,309,  official: 850,796,  infectious: 960,309,  died: 890,  dead: 42,791

Jun 14:  real: 983,359,  official: 867,882,  infectious: 983,359,  died: 598,  dead: 43,389

Jun 15:  real: 1,038,568,  official: 891,556,  infectious: 1,038,568,  died: 729,  dead: 44,118

Jun 16:  real: 1,070,139,  official: 928,834,  infectious: 1,070,139,  died: 1,338,  dead: 45,456

Jun 17:  real: 1,086,990,  official: 960,309,  infectious: 1,086,990,  died: 1,209,  dead: 46,665

Jun 18:  real: 1,111,348,  official: 983,359,  infectious: 1,111,348,  died: 1,204,  dead: 47,869

Jun 19:  real: 1,151,479,  official: 1,038,568,  infectious: 1,151,479,  died: 1,221,  dead: 49,090

Jun 20:  real: 1,192,474,  official: 1,070,139,  infectious: 1,192,474,  died: 968,  dead: 50,058

Jun 21:  real: 1,233,147,  official: 1,086,990,  infectious: 1,233,147,  died: 601,  dead: 50,659

Jun 22:  real: 1,280,054,  official: 1,111,348,  infectious: 1,280,054,  died: 748,  dead: 51,407

Jun 23:  real: 1,315,941,  official: 1,151,479,  infectious: 1,315,941,  died: 1,364,  dead: 52,771

Jun 24:  real: 1,345,254,  official: 1,192,474,  infectious: 1,345,254,  died: 1,103,  dead: 53,874

Jun 25:  real: 1,370,488,  official: 1,233,147,  infectious: 1,370,488,  died: 1,180,  dead: 55,054

Jun 26:  real: 1,408,485,  official: 1,280,054,  infectious: 1,408,485,  died: 1,055,  dead: 56,109

Jun 27:  real: 1,453,369,  official: 1,315,941,  infectious: 1,453,369,  died: 994,  dead: 57,103

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 1,467,947,  official: 1,345,254,  infectious: 557,491,  died: 574,  dead: 57,677

Jun 29:  real: 1,483,030,  official: 1,370,488,  infectious: 576,857,  died: 570,  dead: 58,247

Jun 30:  real: 1,497,802,  official: 1,408,485,  infectious: 565,007,  died: 657,  dead: 58,904

Jul  1:  real: 1,512,343,  official: 1,453,369,  infectious: 556,228,  died: 503,  dead: 59,407

Jul  2:  real: 1,526,722,  official: 1,467,947,  infectious: 550,073,  died: 410,  dead: 59,817

Jul  3:  real: 1,540,778,  official: 1,483,030,  infectious: 537,769,  died: 353,  dead: 60,170

Jul  4:  real: 1,554,269,  official: 1,497,802,  infectious: 516,230,  died: 532,  dead: 60,702

Jul  5:  real: 1,567,337,  official: 1,512,343,  infectious: 500,094,  died: 629,  dead: 61,331

Jul  6:  real: 1,580,151,  official: 1,526,722,  infectious: 490,416,  died: 0,  dead: 61,331

Jul  7:  real: 1,591,974,  official: 1,540,778,  infectious: 452,510,  died: 574,  dead: 61,905

Jul  8:  real: 1,603,277,  official: 1,554,269,  infectious: 432,637,  died: 570,  dead: 62,475

Jul  9:  real: 1,614,459,  official: 1,567,337,  infectious: 428,036,  died: 657,  dead: 63,132

Jul 10:  real: 1,625,348,  official: 1,580,151,  infectious: 416,852,  died: 503,  dead: 63,635

Jul 11:  real: 1,635,613,  official: 1,591,974,  infectious: 392,986,  died: 410,  dead: 64,045

Jul 12:  real: 1,645,229,  official: 1,603,277,  infectious: 368,179,  died: 353,  dead: 64,398

Jul 13:  real: 1,654,188,  official: 1,614,459,  infectious: 343,047,  died: 532,  dead: 64,930

Jul 14:  real: 1,662,345,  official: 1,625,348,  infectious: 312,355,  died: 629,  dead: 65,559

Jul 15:  real: 1,669,916,  official: 1,635,613,  infectious: 289,928,  died: 408,  dead: 65,967

Jul 16:  real: 1,677,019,  official: 1,645,229,  infectious: 272,033,  died: 422,  dead: 66,389

Jul 17:  real: 1,683,727,  official: 1,654,188,  infectious: 256,904,  died: 414,  dead: 66,803

Jul 18:  real: 1,689,765,  official: 1,662,345,  infectious: 231,270,  died: 407,  dead: 67,210

Jul 19:  real: 1,694,982,  official: 1,669,916,  infectious: 199,815,  died: 403,  dead: 67,613

Jul 20:  real: 1,699,994,  official: 1,677,019,  infectious: 191,969,  died: 393,  dead: 68,006

Jul 21:  real: 1,704,771,  official: 1,683,727,  infectious: 182,974,  died: 378,  dead: 68,384

Jul 22:  real: 1,709,317,  official: 1,689,765,  infectious: 174,149,  died: 366,  dead: 68,750

Jul 23:  real: 1,713,635,  official: 1,694,982,  infectious: 165,404,  died: 359,  dead: 69,109

Jul 24:  real: 1,717,725,  official: 1,699,994,  infectious: 156,696,  died: 331,  dead: 69,440

Jul 25:  real: 1,721,593,  official: 1,704,771,  infectious: 148,167,  died: 316,  dead: 69,756

Jul 26:  real: 1,725,247,  official: 1,709,317,  infectious: 139,974,  died: 313,  dead: 70,069

Jul 27:  real: 1,728,692,  official: 1,713,635,  infectious: 131,987,  died: 305,  dead: 70,374

Jul 28:  real: 1,731,931,  official: 1,717,725,  infectious: 124,083,  died: 287,  dead: 70,661

Jul 29:  real: 1,734,982,  official: 1,721,593,  infectious: 116,903,  died: 269,  dead: 70,930

Jul 30:  real: 1,737,855,  official: 1,725,247,  infectious: 110,067,  died: 250,  dead: 71,180

Jul 31:  real: 1,740,548,  official: 1,728,692,  infectious: 103,183,  died: 228,  dead: 71,408

Aug  1:  real: 1,743,064,  official: 1,731,931,  infectious: 96,402,  died: 212,  dead: 71,620

Aug  2:  real: 1,745,413,  official: 1,734,982,  infectious: 89,985,  died: 199,  dead: 71,819

Aug  3:  real: 1,747,604,  official: 1,737,855,  infectious: 83,956,  died: 188,  dead: 72,007

Aug  4:  real: 1,749,648,  official: 1,740,548,  infectious: 78,330,  died: 168,  dead: 72,175

Aug  5:  real: 1,751,559,  official: 1,743,064,  infectious: 73,233,  died: 146,  dead: 72,321

Aug  6:  real: 1,753,347,  official: 1,745,413,  infectious: 68,501,  died: 140,  dead: 72,461

Aug  7:  real: 1,755,019,  official: 1,747,604,  infectious: 64,051,  died: 133,  dead: 72,594

Aug  8:  real: 1,756,581,  official: 1,749,648,  infectious: 59,835,  died: 127,  dead: 72,721

Aug  9:  real: 1,758,044,  official: 1,751,559,  infectious: 56,075,  died: 121,  dead: 72,842

Aug 10:  real: 1,759,424,  official: 1,753,347,  infectious: 52,898,  died: 114,  dead: 72,956

Aug 11:  real: 1,760,724,  official: 1,755,019,  infectious: 49,821,  died: 108,  dead: 73,064

Aug 12:  real: 1,761,947,  official: 1,756,581,  infectious: 46,885,  died: 102,  dead: 73,166

Aug 13:  real: 1,763,097,  official: 1,758,044,  infectious: 44,086,  died: 96,  dead: 73,262

Aug 14:  real: 1,764,178,  official: 1,759,424,  infectious: 41,424,  died: 90,  dead: 73,352

Aug 15:  real: 1,765,193,  official: 1,760,724,  infectious: 38,900,  died: 85,  dead: 73,437

Aug 16:  real: 1,766,146,  official: 1,761,947,  infectious: 36,511,  died: 80,  dead: 73,517

Aug 17:  real: 1,767,040,  official: 1,763,097,  infectious: 34,251,  died: 75,  dead: 73,592

Aug 18:  real: 1,767,878,  official: 1,764,178,  infectious: 32,119,  died: 70,  dead: 73,662

Aug 19:  real: 1,768,664,  official: 1,765,193,  infectious: 30,115,  died: 65,  dead: 73,727

Aug 20:  real: 1,769,400,  official: 1,766,146,  infectious: 28,224,  died: 61,  dead: 73,788

Aug 21:  real: 1,770,090,  official: 1,767,040,  infectious: 26,440,  died: 57,  dead: 73,845

Aug 22:  real: 1,770,736,  official: 1,767,878,  infectious: 24,766,  died: 53,  dead: 73,898

Aug 23:  real: 1,771,341,  official: 1,768,664,  infectious: 23,202,  died: 50,  dead: 73,948

Aug 24:  real: 1,771,908,  official: 1,769,400,  infectious: 21,742,  died: 46,  dead: 73,994

Aug 25:  real: 1,772,440,  official: 1,770,090,  infectious: 20,381,  died: 43,  dead: 74,037

Aug 26:  real: 1,772,939,  official: 1,770,736,  infectious: 19,113,  died: 40,  dead: 74,077

Aug 27:  real: 1,773,407,  official: 1,771,341,  infectious: 17,929,  died: 38,  dead: 74,115

Aug 28:  real: 1,773,846,  official: 1,771,908,  infectious: 16,822,  died: 36,  dead: 74,151

Aug 29:  real: 1,774,258,  official: 1,772,440,  infectious: 15,788,  died: 34,  dead: 74,185

Aug 30:  real: 1,774,645,  official: 1,772,939,  infectious: 14,822,  died: 31,  dead: 74,216

Aug 31:  real: 1,775,008,  official: 1,773,407,  infectious: 13,918,  died: 30,  dead: 74,246

Sep  1:  real: 1,775,349,  official: 1,773,846,  infectious: 13,066,  died: 28,  dead: 74,274

Sep  2:  real: 1,775,669,  official: 1,774,258,  infectious: 12,262,  died: 26,  dead: 74,300

Sep  3:  real: 1,775,969,  official: 1,774,645,  infectious: 11,506,  died: 24,  dead: 74,324

Sep  4:  real: 1,776,251,  official: 1,775,008,  infectious: 10,794,  died: 23,  dead: 74,347

Sep  5:  real: 1,776,515,  official: 1,775,349,  infectious: 10,125,  died: 22,  dead: 74,369

Sep  6:  real: 1,776,763,  official: 1,775,669,  infectious: 9,497,  died: 20,  dead: 74,389

Sep  7:  real: 1,776,995,  official: 1,775,969,  infectious: 8,906,  died: 19,  dead: 74,408

Sep  8:  real: 1,777,213,  official: 1,776,251,  infectious: 8,352,  died: 17,  dead: 74,425

Sep  9:  real: 1,777,417,  official: 1,776,515,  infectious: 7,832,  died: 16,  dead: 74,441

Sep 10:  real: 1,777,609,  official: 1,776,763,  infectious: 7,346,  died: 15,  dead: 74,456

Sep 11:  real: 1,777,789,  official: 1,776,995,  infectious: 6,889,  died: 14,  dead: 74,470

Sep 12:  real: 1,777,958,  official: 1,777,213,  infectious: 6,462,  died: 13,  dead: 74,483

Sep 13:  real: 1,778,116,  official: 1,777,417,  infectious: 6,062,  died: 12,  dead: 74,495

Sep 14:  real: 1,778,264,  official: 1,777,609,  infectious: 5,688,  died: 12,  dead: 74,507

Sep 15:  real: 1,778,403,  official: 1,777,789,  infectious: 5,336,  died: 11,  dead: 74,518

Sep 16:  real: 1,778,534,  official: 1,777,958,  infectious: 5,007,  died: 10,  dead: 74,528

Sep 17:  real: 1,778,657,  official: 1,778,116,  infectious: 4,699,  died: 9,  dead: 74,537

Sep 18:  real: 1,778,772,  official: 1,778,264,  infectious: 4,409,  died: 9,  dead: 74,546

Sep 19:  real: 1,778,880,  official: 1,778,403,  infectious: 4,138,  died: 8,  dead: 74,554

Sep 20:  real: 1,778,981,  official: 1,778,534,  infectious: 3,884,  died: 8,  dead: 74,562

Sep 21:  real: 1,779,076,  official: 1,778,657,  infectious: 3,644,  died: 7,  dead: 74,569

Sep 22:  real: 1,779,165,  official: 1,778,772,  infectious: 3,420,  died: 7,  dead: 74,576

Sep 23:  real: 1,779,249,  official: 1,778,880,  infectious: 3,208,  died: 6,  dead: 74,582

Sep 24:  real: 1,779,328,  official: 1,778,981,  infectious: 3,010,  died: 6,  dead: 74,588

Sep 25:  real: 1,779,402,  official: 1,779,076,  infectious: 2,824,  died: 6,  dead: 74,594

Sep 26:  real: 1,779,471,  official: 1,779,165,  infectious: 2,651,  died: 5,  dead: 74,599

Sep 27:  real: 1,779,536,  official: 1,779,249,  infectious: 2,488,  died: 4,  dead: 74,603

Sep 28:  real: 1,779,597,  official: 1,779,328,  infectious: 2,334,  died: 4,  dead: 74,607

Sep 29:  real: 1,779,654,  official: 1,779,402,  infectious: 2,190,  died: 4,  dead: 74,611

Sep 30:  real: 1,779,708,  official: 1,779,471,  infectious: 2,055,  died: 4,  dead: 74,615

Oct  1:  real: 1,779,758,  official: 1,779,536,  infectious: 1,929,  died: 3,  dead: 74,618

Oct  2:  real: 1,779,805,  official: 1,779,597,  infectious: 1,810,  died: 3,  dead: 74,621

Oct  3:  real: 1,779,849,  official: 1,779,654,  infectious: 1,698,  died: 3,  dead: 74,624

Oct  4:  real: 1,779,891,  official: 1,779,708,  infectious: 1,593,  died: 3,  dead: 74,627

Oct  5:  real: 1,779,930,  official: 1,779,758,  infectious: 1,496,  died: 2,  dead: 74,629

Oct  6:  real: 1,779,967,  official: 1,779,805,  infectious: 1,405,  died: 2,  dead: 74,631

Oct  7:  real: 1,780,001,  official: 1,779,849,  infectious: 1,319,  died: 2,  dead: 74,633

Oct  8:  real: 1,780,033,  official: 1,779,891,  infectious: 1,238,  died: 2,  dead: 74,635

Oct  9:  real: 1,780,063,  official: 1,779,930,  infectious: 1,162,  died: 2,  dead: 74,637

Oct 10:  real: 1,780,091,  official: 1,779,967,  infectious: 1,091,  died: 2,  dead: 74,639

Oct 11:  real: 1,780,118,  official: 1,780,001,  infectious: 1,024,  died: 2,  dead: 74,641

Oct 12:  real: 1,780,143,  official: 1,780,033,  infectious: 962,  died: 1,  dead: 74,642

Oct 13:  real: 1,780,167,  official: 1,780,063,  infectious: 903,  died: 1,  dead: 74,643

Oct 14:  real: 1,780,189,  official: 1,780,091,  infectious: 848,  died: 1,  dead: 74,644

Oct 15:  real: 1,780,210,  official: 1,780,118,  infectious: 797,  died: 1,  dead: 74,645

Oct 16:  real: 1,780,230,  official: 1,780,143,  infectious: 749,  died: 1,  dead: 74,646

Oct 17:  real: 1,780,248,  official: 1,780,167,  infectious: 704,  died: 1,  dead: 74,647

Oct 18:  real: 1,780,265,  official: 1,780,189,  infectious: 662,  died: 1,  dead: 74,648

Oct 19:  real: 1,780,281,  official: 1,780,210,  infectious: 622,  died: 1,  dead: 74,649

Oct 20:  real: 1,780,296,  official: 1,780,230,  infectious: 585,  died: 1,  dead: 74,650

Oct 21:  real: 1,780,310,  official: 1,780,248,  infectious: 549,  died: 1,  dead: 74,651

Oct 22:  real: 1,780,323,  official: 1,780,265,  infectious: 515,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 23:  real: 1,780,336,  official: 1,780,281,  infectious: 484,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 24:  real: 1,780,348,  official: 1,780,296,  infectious: 455,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 25:  real: 1,780,359,  official: 1,780,310,  infectious: 428,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 26:  real: 1,780,369,  official: 1,780,323,  infectious: 402,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 27:  real: 1,780,379,  official: 1,780,336,  infectious: 378,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 28:  real: 1,780,388,  official: 1,780,348,  infectious: 355,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 29:  real: 1,780,397,  official: 1,780,359,  infectious: 335,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 30:  real: 1,780,405,  official: 1,780,369,  infectious: 315,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Oct 31:  real: 1,780,413,  official: 1,780,379,  infectious: 297,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  1:  real: 1,780,420,  official: 1,780,388,  infectious: 280,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  2:  real: 1,780,427,  official: 1,780,397,  infectious: 265,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  3:  real: 1,780,434,  official: 1,780,405,  infectious: 250,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  4:  real: 1,780,440,  official: 1,780,413,  infectious: 236,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  5:  real: 1,780,446,  official: 1,780,420,  infectious: 224,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  6:  real: 1,780,452,  official: 1,780,427,  infectious: 212,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  7:  real: 1,780,457,  official: 1,780,434,  infectious: 200,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  8:  real: 1,780,462,  official: 1,780,440,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov  9:  real: 1,780,467,  official: 1,780,446,  infectious: 178,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 10:  real: 1,780,471,  official: 1,780,452,  infectious: 168,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 11:  real: 1,780,475,  official: 1,780,457,  infectious: 159,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 12:  real: 1,780,479,  official: 1,780,462,  infectious: 150,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 13:  real: 1,780,483,  official: 1,780,467,  infectious: 141,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 14:  real: 1,780,486,  official: 1,780,471,  infectious: 132,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 15:  real: 1,780,489,  official: 1,780,475,  infectious: 125,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 16:  real: 1,780,492,  official: 1,780,479,  infectious: 118,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 17:  real: 1,780,495,  official: 1,780,483,  infectious: 112,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 18:  real: 1,780,498,  official: 1,780,486,  infectious: 106,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 19:  real: 1,780,501,  official: 1,780,489,  infectious: 101,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 20:  real: 1,780,504,  official: 1,780,492,  infectious: 96,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 21:  real: 1,780,506,  official: 1,780,495,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 22:  real: 1,780,508,  official: 1,780,498,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 23:  real: 1,780,510,  official: 1,780,501,  infectious: 84,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 24:  real: 1,780,512,  official: 1,780,504,  infectious: 80,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 25:  real: 1,780,514,  official: 1,780,506,  infectious: 76,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 26:  real: 1,780,516,  official: 1,780,508,  infectious: 72,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 27:  real: 1,780,518,  official: 1,780,510,  infectious: 68,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 28:  real: 1,780,520,  official: 1,780,512,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 29:  real: 1,780,522,  official: 1,780,514,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Nov 30:  real: 1,780,524,  official: 1,780,516,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  1:  real: 1,780,525,  official: 1,780,518,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  2:  real: 1,780,526,  official: 1,780,520,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  3:  real: 1,780,527,  official: 1,780,522,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  4:  real: 1,780,528,  official: 1,780,524,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  5:  real: 1,780,529,  official: 1,780,525,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  6:  real: 1,780,530,  official: 1,780,526,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  7:  real: 1,780,531,  official: 1,780,527,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  8:  real: 1,780,532,  official: 1,780,528,  infectious: 38,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec  9:  real: 1,780,533,  official: 1,780,529,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 10:  real: 1,780,534,  official: 1,780,530,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 11:  real: 1,780,535,  official: 1,780,531,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 12:  real: 1,780,536,  official: 1,780,532,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 13:  real: 1,780,537,  official: 1,780,533,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 14:  real: 1,780,538,  official: 1,780,534,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 15:  real: 1,780,539,  official: 1,780,535,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 16:  real: 1,780,540,  official: 1,780,536,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 17:  real: 1,780,541,  official: 1,780,537,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 18:  real: 1,780,542,  official: 1,780,538,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 19:  real: 1,780,543,  official: 1,780,539,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 20:  real: 1,780,544,  official: 1,780,540,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 21:  real: 1,780,545,  official: 1,780,541,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 22:  real: 1,780,546,  official: 1,780,542,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 23:  real: 1,780,547,  official: 1,780,543,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 24:  real: 1,780,548,  official: 1,780,544,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 25:  real: 1,780,549,  official: 1,780,545,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 26:  real: 1,780,550,  official: 1,780,546,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 27:  real: 1,780,551,  official: 1,780,547,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 28:  real: 1,780,552,  official: 1,780,548,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 29:  real: 1,780,553,  official: 1,780,549,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 30:  real: 1,780,554,  official: 1,780,550,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

Dec 31:  real: 1,780,555,  official: 1,780,551,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 74,651

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        657:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     74,651:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     74,651:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.61%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0261
Official uninf: 148,546,631 / Adult Pop.: 150,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.03%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0098
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.64%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0264