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COVID-19 Forecast for South Korea, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
654 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL South Korea HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 654 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in South Korea run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in South Korea are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        282:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        282:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
South Korea COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.004, at 100.35% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 6,284,  official: 3,736,  infectious: 6,284,  died: 21,  dead: 21

Mar  2:  real: 6,593,  official: 4,335,  infectious: 6,593,  died: 7,  dead: 28

Mar  3:  real: 7,041,  official: 5,186,  infectious: 7,041,  died: 4,  dead: 32

Mar  4:  real: 7,313,  official: 5,621,  infectious: 7,313,  died: 3,  dead: 35

Mar  5:  real: 7,478,  official: 6,284,  infectious: 7,478,  died: 7,  dead: 42

Mar  6:  real: 7,513,  official: 6,593,  infectious: 7,513,  died: 1,  dead: 43

Mar  7:  real: 7,755,  official: 7,041,  infectious: 7,755,  died: 5,  dead: 48

Mar  8:  real: 7,869,  official: 7,313,  infectious: 7,869,  died: 2,  dead: 50

Mar  9:  real: 7,979,  official: 7,478,  infectious: 7,979,  died: 3,  dead: 53

Mar 10:  real: 8,086,  official: 7,513,  infectious: 8,086,  died: 7,  dead: 60

Mar 11:  real: 8,162,  official: 7,755,  infectious: 8,162,  died: 0,  dead: 60

Mar 12:  real: 8,236,  official: 7,869,  infectious: 8,236,  died: 6,  dead: 66

Mar 13:  real: 8,320,  official: 7,979,  infectious: 8,320,  died: 1,  dead: 67

Mar 14:  real: 8,413,  official: 8,086,  infectious: 8,413,  died: 5,  dead: 72

Mar 15:  real: 8,565,  official: 8,162,  infectious: 8,565,  died: 3,  dead: 75

Mar 16:  real: 8,652,  official: 8,236,  infectious: 8,652,  died: 0,  dead: 75

Mar 17:  real: 8,799,  official: 8,320,  infectious: 8,799,  died: 6,  dead: 81

Mar 18:  real: 8,897,  official: 8,413,  infectious: 8,897,  died: 3,  dead: 84

Mar 19:  real: 8,961,  official: 8,565,  infectious: 8,961,  died: 7,  dead: 91

Mar 20:  real: 9,037,  official: 8,652,  infectious: 9,037,  died: 3,  dead: 94

Mar 21:  real: 9,137,  official: 8,799,  infectious: 9,137,  died: 8,  dead: 102

Mar 22:  real: 9,241,  official: 8,897,  infectious: 9,241,  died: 2,  dead: 104

Mar 23:  real: 9,332,  official: 8,961,  infectious: 9,332,  died: 7,  dead: 111

Mar 24:  real: 9,478,  official: 9,037,  infectious: 9,478,  died: 9,  dead: 120

Mar 25:  real: 9,583,  official: 9,137,  infectious: 9,583,  died: 6,  dead: 126

Mar 26:  real: 9,661,  official: 9,241,  infectious: 9,661,  died: 5,  dead: 131

Mar 27:  real: 9,786,  official: 9,332,  infectious: 9,786,  died: 8,  dead: 139

Mar 28:  real: 9,887,  official: 9,478,  infectious: 9,887,  died: 5,  dead: 144

Mar 29:  real: 9,976,  official: 9,583,  infectious: 9,976,  died: 8,  dead: 152

Mar 30:  real: 10,062,  official: 9,661,  infectious: 10,062,  died: 6,  dead: 158

Mar 31:  real: 10,156,  official: 9,786,  infectious: 10,156,  died: 4,  dead: 162

Apr  1:  real: 10,237,  official: 9,887,  infectious: 10,237,  died: 3,  dead: 165

Apr  2:  real: 10,284,  official: 9,976,  infectious: 10,284,  died: 4,  dead: 169

Apr  3:  real: 10,331,  official: 10,062,  infectious: 10,331,  died: 5,  dead: 174

Apr  4:  real: 10,384,  official: 10,156,  infectious: 10,384,  died: 3,  dead: 177

Apr  5:  real: 10,423,  official: 10,237,  infectious: 10,423,  died: 6,  dead: 183

Apr  6:  real: 10,450,  official: 10,284,  infectious: 10,450,  died: 3,  dead: 186

Apr  7:  real: 10,480,  official: 10,331,  infectious: 10,480,  died: 6,  dead: 192

Apr  8:  real: 10,512,  official: 10,384,  infectious: 10,512,  died: 8,  dead: 200

Apr  9:  real: 10,537,  official: 10,423,  infectious: 10,537,  died: 4,  dead: 204

Apr 10:  real: 10,564,  official: 10,450,  infectious: 10,564,  died: 4,  dead: 208

Apr 11:  real: 10,591,  official: 10,480,  infectious: 10,591,  died: 3,  dead: 211

Apr 12:  real: 10,613,  official: 10,512,  infectious: 10,613,  died: 3,  dead: 214

Apr 13:  real: 10,635,  official: 10,537,  infectious: 10,635,  died: 3,  dead: 217

Apr 14:  real: 10,653,  official: 10,564,  infectious: 10,653,  died: 5,  dead: 222

Apr 15:  real: 10,661,  official: 10,591,  infectious: 10,661,  died: 3,  dead: 225

Apr 16:  real: 10,674,  official: 10,613,  infectious: 10,674,  died: 4,  dead: 229

Apr 17:  real: 10,683,  official: 10,635,  infectious: 10,683,  died: 1,  dead: 230

Apr 18:  real: 10,694,  official: 10,653,  infectious: 10,694,  died: 2,  dead: 232

Apr 19:  real: 10,702,  official: 10,661,  infectious: 10,702,  died: 2,  dead: 234

Apr 20:  real: 10,708,  official: 10,674,  infectious: 10,708,  died: 2,  dead: 236

Apr 21:  real: 10,718,  official: 10,683,  infectious: 10,718,  died: 1,  dead: 237

Apr 22:  real: 10,728,  official: 10,694,  infectious: 10,728,  died: 1,  dead: 238

Apr 23:  real: 10,738,  official: 10,702,  infectious: 10,738,  died: 2,  dead: 240

Apr 24:  real: 10,752,  official: 10,708,  infectious: 10,752,  died: 0,  dead: 240

Apr 25:  real: 10,761,  official: 10,718,  infectious: 10,761,  died: 0,  dead: 240

Apr 26:  real: 10,765,  official: 10,728,  infectious: 10,765,  died: 2,  dead: 242

Apr 27:  real: 10,774,  official: 10,738,  infectious: 10,774,  died: 1,  dead: 243

Apr 28:  real: 10,780,  official: 10,752,  infectious: 10,780,  died: 1,  dead: 244

Apr 29:  real: 10,793,  official: 10,761,  infectious: 10,793,  died: 2,  dead: 246

Apr 30:  real: 10,801,  official: 10,765,  infectious: 10,801,  died: 1,  dead: 247

May  1:  real: 10,804,  official: 10,774,  infectious: 10,804,  died: 1,  dead: 248

May  2:  real: 10,806,  official: 10,780,  infectious: 10,806,  died: 2,  dead: 250

May  3:  real: 10,810,  official: 10,793,  infectious: 10,810,  died: 0,  dead: 250

May  4:  real: 10,822,  official: 10,801,  infectious: 10,822,  died: 2,  dead: 252

May  5:  real: 10,840,  official: 10,804,  infectious: 10,840,  died: 2,  dead: 254

May  6:  real: 10,874,  official: 10,806,  infectious: 10,874,  died: 1,  dead: 255

May  7:  real: 10,909,  official: 10,810,  infectious: 10,909,  died: 1,  dead: 256

May  8:  real: 10,936,  official: 10,822,  infectious: 10,936,  died: 0,  dead: 256

May  9:  real: 10,962,  official: 10,840,  infectious: 10,962,  died: 0,  dead: 256

May 10:  real: 10,991,  official: 10,874,  infectious: 10,991,  died: 0,  dead: 256

May 11:  real: 11,018,  official: 10,909,  infectious: 11,018,  died: 0,  dead: 256

May 12:  real: 11,037,  official: 10,936,  infectious: 11,037,  died: 2,  dead: 258

May 13:  real: 11,050,  official: 10,962,  infectious: 11,050,  died: 1,  dead: 259

May 14:  real: 11,065,  official: 10,991,  infectious: 11,065,  died: 1,  dead: 260

May 15:  real: 11,078,  official: 11,018,  infectious: 11,078,  died: 0,  dead: 260

May 16:  real: 11,110,  official: 11,037,  infectious: 11,110,  died: 2,  dead: 262

May 17:  real: 11,122,  official: 11,050,  infectious: 11,122,  died: 0,  dead: 262

May 18:  real: 11,142,  official: 11,065,  infectious: 11,142,  died: 1,  dead: 263

May 19:  real: 11,165,  official: 11,078,  infectious: 11,165,  died: 0,  dead: 263

May 20:  real: 11,190,  official: 11,110,  infectious: 11,190,  died: 0,  dead: 263

May 21:  real: 11,206,  official: 11,122,  infectious: 11,206,  died: 1,  dead: 264

May 22:  real: 11,225,  official: 11,142,  infectious: 11,225,  died: 0,  dead: 264

May 23:  real: 11,265,  official: 11,165,  infectious: 11,265,  died: 2,  dead: 266

May 24:  real: 11,344,  official: 11,190,  infectious: 11,344,  died: 0,  dead: 266

May 25:  real: 11,402,  official: 11,206,  infectious: 11,402,  died: 1,  dead: 267

May 26:  real: 11,441,  official: 11,225,  infectious: 11,441,  died: 2,  dead: 269

May 27:  real: 11,468,  official: 11,265,  infectious: 11,468,  died: 0,  dead: 269

May 28:  real: 11,503,  official: 11,344,  infectious: 11,503,  died: 0,  dead: 269

May 29:  real: 11,541,  official: 11,402,  infectious: 11,541,  died: 0,  dead: 269

May 30:  real: 11,590,  official: 11,441,  infectious: 11,590,  died: 0,  dead: 269

May 31:  real: 11,629,  official: 11,468,  infectious: 11,629,  died: 1,  dead: 270

Jun  1:  real: 11,668,  official: 11,503,  infectious: 11,668,  died: 1,  dead: 271

Jun  2:  real: 11,719,  official: 11,541,  infectious: 11,719,  died: 1,  dead: 272

Jun  3:  real: 11,776,  official: 11,590,  infectious: 11,776,  died: 1,  dead: 273

Jun  4:  real: 11,814,  official: 11,629,  infectious: 11,814,  died: 0,  dead: 273

Jun  5:  real: 11,852,  official: 11,668,  infectious: 11,852,  died: 0,  dead: 273

Jun  6:  real: 11,902,  official: 11,719,  infectious: 11,902,  died: 0,  dead: 273

Jun  7:  real: 11,947,  official: 11,776,  infectious: 11,947,  died: 0,  dead: 273

Jun  8:  real: 12,003,  official: 11,814,  infectious: 12,003,  died: 0,  dead: 273

Jun  9:  real: 12,051,  official: 11,852,  infectious: 12,051,  died: 1,  dead: 274

Jun 10:  real: 12,085,  official: 11,902,  infectious: 12,085,  died: 2,  dead: 276

Jun 11:  real: 12,121,  official: 11,947,  infectious: 12,121,  died: 0,  dead: 276

Jun 12:  real: 12,155,  official: 12,003,  infectious: 12,155,  died: 1,  dead: 277

Jun 13:  real: 12,198,  official: 12,051,  infectious: 12,198,  died: 0,  dead: 277

Jun 14:  real: 12,257,  official: 12,085,  infectious: 12,257,  died: 0,  dead: 277

Jun 15:  real: 12,306,  official: 12,121,  infectious: 12,306,  died: 0,  dead: 277

Jun 16:  real: 12,373,  official: 12,155,  infectious: 12,373,  died: 1,  dead: 278

Jun 17:  real: 12,421,  official: 12,198,  infectious: 12,421,  died: 1,  dead: 279

Jun 18:  real: 12,438,  official: 12,257,  infectious: 12,438,  died: 1,  dead: 280

Jun 19:  real: 12,484,  official: 12,306,  infectious: 12,484,  died: 0,  dead: 280

Jun 20:  real: 12,535,  official: 12,373,  infectious: 12,535,  died: 0,  dead: 280

Jun 21:  real: 12,563,  official: 12,421,  infectious: 12,563,  died: 0,  dead: 280

Jun 22:  real: 12,602,  official: 12,438,  infectious: 12,602,  died: 0,  dead: 280

Jun 23:  real: 12,653,  official: 12,484,  infectious: 12,653,  died: 1,  dead: 281

Jun 24:  real: 12,715,  official: 12,535,  infectious: 12,715,  died: 0,  dead: 281

Jun 25:  real: 12,757,  official: 12,563,  infectious: 12,757,  died: 1,  dead: 282

Jun 26:  real: 12,800,  official: 12,602,  infectious: 12,800,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jun 27:  real: 12,850,  official: 12,653,  infectious: 12,850,  died: 0,  dead: 282

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 12,853,  official: 12,715,  infectious: 800,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jun 29:  real: 12,856,  official: 12,757,  infectious: 812,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jun 30:  real: 12,859,  official: 12,800,  infectious: 762,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  1:  real: 12,862,  official: 12,850,  infectious: 719,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  2:  real: 12,864,  official: 12,853,  infectious: 689,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  3:  real: 12,866,  official: 12,856,  infectious: 655,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  4:  real: 12,868,  official: 12,859,  infectious: 620,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  5:  real: 12,870,  official: 12,862,  infectious: 577,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  6:  real: 12,872,  official: 12,864,  infectious: 523,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  7:  real: 12,874,  official: 12,866,  infectious: 478,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  8:  real: 12,875,  official: 12,868,  infectious: 417,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul  9:  real: 12,876,  official: 12,870,  infectious: 380,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 10:  real: 12,877,  official: 12,872,  infectious: 366,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 11:  real: 12,878,  official: 12,874,  infectious: 329,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 12:  real: 12,879,  official: 12,875,  infectious: 288,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 13:  real: 12,880,  official: 12,876,  infectious: 265,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 14:  real: 12,881,  official: 12,877,  infectious: 232,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 15:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,878,  infectious: 191,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 16:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,879,  infectious: 141,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 17:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,880,  infectious: 108,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 18:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,881,  infectious: 73,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 19:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 20:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 21:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 22:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 23:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 24:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 25:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 26:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 27:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 28:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 29:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 30:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Jul 31:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  1:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  2:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  3:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  4:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  5:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  6:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  7:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  8:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug  9:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 10:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 11:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 12:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 13:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 14:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 15:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 16:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 17:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 18:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 19:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 20:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 21:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 22:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 23:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 24:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 25:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 26:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 27:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 28:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 29:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 30:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Aug 31:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  1:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  2:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  3:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  4:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  5:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  6:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  7:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  8:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep  9:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 10:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 11:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 12:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 13:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 14:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 15:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 16:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 17:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 18:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 19:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 20:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 21:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 22:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 23:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 24:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 25:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 26:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 27:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 28:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 29:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Sep 30:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  1:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  2:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  3:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  4:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  5:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  6:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  7:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  8:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct  9:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 10:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 11:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 12:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 13:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 14:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 15:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 16:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 17:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 18:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 19:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 20:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 21:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 22:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 23:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 24:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 25:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 26:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 27:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 28:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 29:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 30:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Oct 31:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  1:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  2:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  3:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  4:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  5:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  6:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  7:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  8:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov  9:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 10:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 11:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 12:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 13:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 14:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 15:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 16:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 17:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 18:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 19:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 20:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 21:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 22:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 23:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 24:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 25:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 26:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 27:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 28:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 29:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Nov 30:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  1:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  2:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  3:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  4:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  5:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  6:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  7:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  8:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec  9:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 10:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 11:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 12:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 13:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 14:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 15:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 16:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 17:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 18:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 19:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 20:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 21:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 22:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 23:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 24:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 25:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 26:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 27:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 28:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 29:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 30:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

Dec 31:  real: 12,882,  official: 12,882,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 282

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        282:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        282:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.35%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0035
Official uninf: 41,987,150 / Adult Pop.: 42,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.97%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0003
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.35%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0035