Space Coast Research Institute of Economic Reasoning
Applying Artificial Intelligence to the problem of Economic Understanding & Explanation
Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.
G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH spaceHover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.
If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.
How to read the Log Chart: Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths. Right, dotted lines: projections. Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on. Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different. Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20. A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in, and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat. Forced deaths start about a week after when the red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region, meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators. Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region, and you run out of staffed hospital bed space. Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon. As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink in the black Death rate simulation line at Today. Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated, in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away. Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions. We are working to improve this simulation factor soon. Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical. Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes. Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off. As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this. Since the log Growth curve has recently changed and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S., we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast. Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected. Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.
Wed, Jul 1, 2020:
The curve is now 10x in 48 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in South Africa run out of space,
is forecast to be NEVER.
And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in South Africa are used up,
is forecast to be NEVER.
May the officials use this time wisely.
As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
128: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 23.
0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS
0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
13,549: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment:
---------------
13,549: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.
South Africa COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul 1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.049, at 104.87% Growth per day)
Starting Run:
Mar 1: real: 1, official: 0, infectious: 1, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 2: real: 1, official: 0, infectious: 1, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 3: real: 2, official: 0, infectious: 2, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 4: real: 3, official: 0, infectious: 3, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 5: real: 7, official: 1, infectious: 7, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 6: real: 7, official: 1, infectious: 7, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 7: real: 13, official: 2, infectious: 13, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 8: real: 16, official: 3, infectious: 16, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 9: real: 24, official: 7, infectious: 24, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 10: real: 38, official: 7, infectious: 38, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 11: real: 61, official: 13, infectious: 61, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 12: real: 64, official: 16, infectious: 64, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 13: real: 85, official: 24, infectious: 85, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 14: real: 116, official: 38, infectious: 116, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 15: real: 150, official: 61, infectious: 150, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 16: real: 202, official: 64, infectious: 202, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 17: real: 240, official: 85, infectious: 240, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 18: real: 274, official: 116, infectious: 274, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 19: real: 402, official: 150, infectious: 402, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 20: real: 554, official: 202, infectious: 554, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 21: real: 709, official: 240, infectious: 709, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 22: real: 927, official: 274, infectious: 927, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 23: real: 1,170, official: 402, infectious: 1,170, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 24: real: 1,187, official: 554, infectious: 1,187, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 25: real: 1,280, official: 709, infectious: 1,280, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 26: real: 1,326, official: 927, infectious: 1,326, died: 0, dead: 0
Mar 27: real: 1,353, official: 1,170, infectious: 1,353, died: 1, dead: 1
Mar 28: real: 1,380, official: 1,187, infectious: 1,380, died: 0, dead: 1
Mar 29: real: 1,462, official: 1,280, infectious: 1,462, died: 1, dead: 2
Mar 30: real: 1,505, official: 1,326, infectious: 1,505, died: 1, dead: 3
Mar 31: real: 1,585, official: 1,353, infectious: 1,585, died: 2, dead: 5
Apr 1: real: 1,655, official: 1,380, infectious: 1,655, died: 0, dead: 5
Apr 2: real: 1,686, official: 1,462, infectious: 1,686, died: 0, dead: 5
Apr 3: real: 1,749, official: 1,505, infectious: 1,749, died: 4, dead: 9
Apr 4: real: 1,845, official: 1,585, infectious: 1,845, died: 0, dead: 9
Apr 5: real: 1,934, official: 1,655, infectious: 1,934, died: 2, dead: 11
Apr 6: real: 2,003, official: 1,686, infectious: 2,003, died: 1, dead: 12
Apr 7: real: 2,028, official: 1,749, infectious: 2,028, died: 1, dead: 13
Apr 8: real: 2,173, official: 1,845, infectious: 2,173, died: 5, dead: 18
Apr 9: real: 2,272, official: 1,934, infectious: 2,272, died: 0, dead: 18
Apr 10: real: 2,415, official: 2,003, infectious: 2,415, died: 6, dead: 24
Apr 11: real: 2,506, official: 2,028, infectious: 2,506, died: 1, dead: 25
Apr 12: real: 2,605, official: 2,173, infectious: 2,605, died: 0, dead: 25
Apr 13: real: 2,783, official: 2,272, infectious: 2,783, died: 2, dead: 27
Apr 14: real: 3,034, official: 2,415, infectious: 3,034, died: 0, dead: 27
Apr 15: real: 3,158, official: 2,506, infectious: 3,158, died: 7, dead: 34
Apr 16: real: 3,300, official: 2,605, infectious: 3,300, died: 14, dead: 48
Apr 17: real: 3,465, official: 2,783, infectious: 3,465, died: 2, dead: 50
Apr 18: real: 3,635, official: 3,034, infectious: 3,635, died: 2, dead: 52
Apr 19: real: 3,953, official: 3,158, infectious: 3,953, died: 2, dead: 54
Apr 20: real: 4,220, official: 3,300, infectious: 4,220, died: 4, dead: 58
Apr 21: real: 4,361, official: 3,465, infectious: 4,361, died: 0, dead: 58
Apr 22: real: 4,546, official: 3,635, infectious: 4,546, died: 7, dead: 65
Apr 23: real: 4,793, official: 3,953, infectious: 4,793, died: 10, dead: 75
Apr 24: real: 4,996, official: 4,220, infectious: 4,996, died: 4, dead: 79
Apr 25: real: 5,350, official: 4,361, infectious: 5,350, died: 7, dead: 86
Apr 26: real: 5,647, official: 4,546, infectious: 5,647, died: 1, dead: 87
Apr 27: real: 5,951, official: 4,793, infectious: 5,951, died: 3, dead: 90
Apr 28: real: 6,336, official: 4,996, infectious: 6,336, died: 3, dead: 93
Apr 29: real: 6,783, official: 5,350, infectious: 6,783, died: 10, dead: 103
Apr 30: real: 7,220, official: 5,647, infectious: 7,220, died: 0, dead: 103
May 1: real: 7,572, official: 5,951, infectious: 7,572, died: 13, dead: 116
May 2: real: 7,808, official: 6,336, infectious: 7,808, died: 7, dead: 123
May 3: real: 8,232, official: 6,783, infectious: 8,232, died: 8, dead: 131
May 4: real: 8,895, official: 7,220, infectious: 8,895, died: 7, dead: 138
May 5: real: 9,420, official: 7,572, infectious: 9,420, died: 10, dead: 148
May 6: real: 10,015, official: 7,808, infectious: 10,015, died: 5, dead: 153
May 7: real: 10,652, official: 8,232, infectious: 10,652, died: 8, dead: 161
May 8: real: 11,350, official: 8,895, infectious: 11,350, died: 17, dead: 178
May 9: real: 12,074, official: 9,420, infectious: 12,074, died: 8, dead: 186
May 10: real: 12,739, official: 10,015, infectious: 12,739, died: 8, dead: 194
May 11: real: 13,524, official: 10,652, infectious: 13,524, died: 12, dead: 206
May 12: real: 14,355, official: 11,350, infectious: 14,355, died: 0, dead: 206
May 13: real: 15,515, official: 12,074, infectious: 15,515, died: 13, dead: 219
May 14: real: 16,433, official: 12,739, infectious: 16,433, died: 19, dead: 238
May 15: real: 17,200, official: 13,524, infectious: 17,200, died: 9, dead: 247
May 16: real: 18,003, official: 14,355, infectious: 18,003, died: 14, dead: 261
May 17: real: 19,137, official: 15,515, infectious: 19,137, died: 3, dead: 264
May 18: real: 20,125, official: 16,433, infectious: 20,125, died: 22, dead: 286
May 19: real: 21,343, official: 17,200, infectious: 21,343, died: 26, dead: 312
May 20: real: 22,583, official: 18,003, infectious: 22,583, died: 27, dead: 339
May 21: real: 23,615, official: 19,137, infectious: 23,615, died: 30, dead: 369
May 22: real: 24,264, official: 20,125, infectious: 24,264, died: 28, dead: 397
May 23: real: 25,937, official: 21,343, infectious: 25,937, died: 10, dead: 407
May 24: real: 27,403, official: 22,583, infectious: 27,403, died: 22, dead: 429
May 25: real: 29,240, official: 23,615, infectious: 29,240, died: 52, dead: 481
May 26: real: 30,967, official: 24,264, infectious: 30,967, died: 43, dead: 524
May 27: real: 32,683, official: 25,937, infectious: 32,683, died: 28, dead: 552
May 28: real: 34,357, official: 27,403, infectious: 34,357, died: 25, dead: 577
May 29: real: 35,812, official: 29,240, infectious: 35,812, died: 34, dead: 611
May 30: real: 37,525, official: 30,967, infectious: 37,525, died: 32, dead: 643
May 31: real: 40,792, official: 32,683, infectious: 40,792, died: 40, dead: 683
Jun 1: real: 43,434, official: 34,357, infectious: 43,434, died: 22, dead: 705
Jun 2: real: 45,973, official: 35,812, infectious: 45,973, died: 50, dead: 755
Jun 3: real: 48,285, official: 37,525, infectious: 48,285, died: 37, dead: 792
Jun 4: real: 50,879, official: 40,792, infectious: 50,879, died: 56, dead: 848
Jun 5: real: 52,991, official: 43,434, infectious: 52,991, died: 60, dead: 908
Jun 6: real: 55,421, official: 45,973, infectious: 55,421, died: 44, dead: 952
Jun 7: real: 58,568, official: 48,285, infectious: 58,568, died: 46, dead: 998
Jun 8: real: 61,927, official: 50,879, infectious: 61,927, died: 82, dead: 1,080
Jun 9: real: 65,736, official: 52,991, infectious: 65,736, died: 82, dead: 1,162
Jun 10: real: 70,038, official: 55,421, infectious: 70,038, died: 48, dead: 1,210
Jun 11: real: 73,533, official: 58,568, infectious: 73,533, died: 74, dead: 1,284
Jun 12: real: 76,334, official: 61,927, infectious: 76,334, died: 70, dead: 1,354
Jun 13: real: 80,412, official: 65,736, infectious: 80,412, died: 69, dead: 1,423
Jun 14: real: 83,890, official: 70,038, infectious: 83,890, died: 57, dead: 1,480
Jun 15: real: 87,715, official: 73,533, infectious: 87,715, died: 88, dead: 1,568
Jun 16: real: 92,681, official: 76,334, infectious: 92,681, died: 57, dead: 1,625
Jun 17: real: 97,302, official: 80,412, infectious: 97,302, died: 49, dead: 1,674
Jun 18: real: 101,590, official: 83,890, infectious: 101,590, died: 63, dead: 1,737
Jun 19: real: 106,108, official: 87,715, infectious: 106,108, died: 94, dead: 1,831
Jun 20: real: 111,796, official: 92,681, infectious: 111,796, died: 46, dead: 1,877
Jun 21: real: 118,375, official: 97,302, infectious: 118,375, died: 53, dead: 1,930
Jun 22: real: 124,590, official: 101,590, infectious: 124,590, died: 61, dead: 1,991
Jun 23: real: 131,800, official: 106,108, infectious: 131,800, died: 111, dead: 2,102
Jun 24: real: 138,134, official: 111,796, infectious: 138,134, died: 103, dead: 2,205
Jun 25: real: 144,264, official: 118,375, infectious: 144,264, died: 87, dead: 2,292
Jun 26: real: 151,209, official: 124,590, infectious: 151,209, died: 48, dead: 2,340
Jun 27: real: 159,333, official: 131,800, infectious: 159,333, died: 73, dead: 2,413
...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28: real: 163,487, official: 138,134, infectious: 85,198, died: 79, dead: 2,492
Jun 29: real: 167,904, official: 144,264, infectious: 90,596, died: 91, dead: 2,583
Jun 30: real: 172,352, official: 151,209, infectious: 91,243, died: 86, dead: 2,669
Jul 1: real: 176,817, official: 159,333, infectious: 91,598, died: 100, dead: 2,769
Jul 2: real: 181,275, official: 163,487, infectious: 91,464, died: 88, dead: 2,857
Jul 3: real: 185,760, official: 167,904, infectious: 92,023, died: 85, dead: 2,942
Jul 4: real: 190,292, official: 172,352, infectious: 93,004, died: 97, dead: 3,039
Jul 5: real: 194,829, official: 176,817, infectious: 93,125, died: 113, dead: 3,152
Jul 6: real: 199,398, official: 181,275, infectious: 93,783, died: 0, dead: 3,152
Jul 7: real: 203,978, official: 185,760, infectious: 94,017, died: 79, dead: 3,231
Jul 8: real: 208,517, official: 190,292, infectious: 93,190, died: 91, dead: 3,322
Jul 9: real: 213,057, official: 194,829, infectious: 93,228, died: 86, dead: 3,408
Jul 10: real: 217,608, official: 199,398, infectious: 93,451, died: 100, dead: 3,508
Jul 11: real: 222,160, official: 203,978, infectious: 93,487, died: 88, dead: 3,596
Jul 12: real: 226,668, official: 208,517, infectious: 92,595, died: 85, dead: 3,681
Jul 13: real: 231,097, official: 213,057, infectious: 90,990, died: 97, dead: 3,778
Jul 14: real: 235,460, official: 217,608, infectious: 89,626, died: 113, dead: 3,891
Jul 15: real: 239,713, official: 222,160, infectious: 87,379, died: 116, dead: 4,007
Jul 16: real: 243,887, official: 226,668, infectious: 85,764, died: 123, dead: 4,130
Jul 17: real: 247,984, official: 231,097, infectious: 84,199, died: 124, dead: 4,254
Jul 18: real: 251,969, official: 235,460, infectious: 81,903, died: 124, dead: 4,378
Jul 19: real: 255,792, official: 239,713, infectious: 78,593, died: 124, dead: 4,502
Jul 20: real: 259,603, official: 243,887, infectious: 78,345, died: 125, dead: 4,627
Jul 21: real: 263,383, official: 247,984, infectious: 77,724, died: 127, dead: 4,754
Jul 22: real: 267,131, official: 251,969, infectious: 77,068, died: 127, dead: 4,881
Jul 23: real: 270,845, official: 255,792, infectious: 76,379, died: 128, dead: 5,009
Jul 24: real: 274,525, official: 259,603, infectious: 75,679, died: 128, dead: 5,137
Jul 25: real: 278,169, official: 263,383, infectious: 74,938, died: 127, dead: 5,264
Jul 26: real: 281,774, official: 267,131, infectious: 74,147, died: 127, dead: 5,391
Jul 27: real: 285,339, official: 270,845, infectious: 73,332, died: 127, dead: 5,518
Jul 28: real: 288,862, official: 274,525, infectious: 72,468, died: 127, dead: 5,645
Jul 29: real: 292,341, official: 278,169, infectious: 71,581, died: 125, dead: 5,770
Jul 30: real: 295,777, official: 281,774, infectious: 70,709, died: 123, dead: 5,893
Jul 31: real: 299,169, official: 285,339, infectious: 69,796, died: 122, dead: 6,015
Aug 1: real: 302,514, official: 288,862, infectious: 68,837, died: 118, dead: 6,133
Aug 2: real: 305,810, official: 292,341, infectious: 67,840, died: 116, dead: 6,249
Aug 3: real: 309,057, official: 295,777, infectious: 66,837, died: 114, dead: 6,363
Aug 4: real: 312,256, official: 299,169, infectious: 65,855, died: 111, dead: 6,474
Aug 5: real: 315,408, official: 302,514, infectious: 64,886, died: 106, dead: 6,580
Aug 6: real: 318,515, official: 305,810, infectious: 63,963, died: 106, dead: 6,686
Aug 7: real: 321,578, official: 309,057, infectious: 63,064, died: 105, dead: 6,791
Aug 8: real: 324,598, official: 312,256, infectious: 62,191, died: 105, dead: 6,896
Aug 9: real: 327,578, official: 315,408, infectious: 61,372, died: 103, dead: 6,999
Aug 10: real: 330,523, official: 318,515, infectious: 60,649, died: 102, dead: 7,101
Aug 11: real: 333,432, official: 321,578, infectious: 59,904, died: 101, dead: 7,202
Aug 12: real: 336,304, official: 324,598, infectious: 59,158, died: 100, dead: 7,302
Aug 13: real: 339,140, official: 327,578, infectious: 58,412, died: 99, dead: 7,401
Aug 14: real: 341,939, official: 330,523, infectious: 57,666, died: 98, dead: 7,499
Aug 15: real: 344,702, official: 333,432, infectious: 56,921, died: 97, dead: 7,596
Aug 16: real: 347,429, official: 336,304, infectious: 56,176, died: 96, dead: 7,692
Aug 17: real: 350,119, official: 339,140, infectious: 55,436, died: 94, dead: 7,786
Aug 18: real: 352,774, official: 341,939, infectious: 54,700, died: 93, dead: 7,879
Aug 19: real: 355,393, official: 344,702, infectious: 53,970, died: 92, dead: 7,971
Aug 20: real: 357,977, official: 347,429, infectious: 53,247, died: 90, dead: 8,061
Aug 21: real: 360,526, official: 350,119, infectious: 52,530, died: 89, dead: 8,150
Aug 22: real: 363,040, official: 352,774, infectious: 51,820, died: 88, dead: 8,238
Aug 23: real: 365,520, official: 355,393, infectious: 51,121, died: 86, dead: 8,324
Aug 24: real: 367,967, official: 357,977, infectious: 50,434, died: 85, dead: 8,409
Aug 25: real: 370,381, official: 360,526, infectious: 49,758, died: 84, dead: 8,493
Aug 26: real: 372,762, official: 363,040, infectious: 49,095, died: 83, dead: 8,576
Aug 27: real: 375,112, official: 365,520, infectious: 48,443, died: 82, dead: 8,658
Aug 28: real: 377,430, official: 367,967, infectious: 47,802, died: 81, dead: 8,739
Aug 29: real: 379,718, official: 370,381, infectious: 47,173, died: 80, dead: 8,819
Aug 30: real: 381,975, official: 372,762, infectious: 46,553, died: 79, dead: 8,898
Aug 31: real: 384,203, official: 375,112, infectious: 45,942, died: 78, dead: 8,976
Sep 1: real: 386,401, official: 377,430, infectious: 45,335, died: 77, dead: 9,053
Sep 2: real: 388,570, official: 379,718, infectious: 44,735, died: 76, dead: 9,129
Sep 3: real: 390,710, official: 381,975, infectious: 44,141, died: 75, dead: 9,204
Sep 4: real: 392,821, official: 384,203, infectious: 43,553, died: 74, dead: 9,278
Sep 5: real: 394,904, official: 386,401, infectious: 42,973, died: 73, dead: 9,351
Sep 6: real: 396,959, official: 388,570, infectious: 42,399, died: 72, dead: 9,423
Sep 7: real: 398,987, official: 390,710, infectious: 41,832, died: 70, dead: 9,493
Sep 8: real: 400,987, official: 392,821, infectious: 41,273, died: 70, dead: 9,563
Sep 9: real: 402,961, official: 394,904, infectious: 40,721, died: 69, dead: 9,632
Sep 10: real: 404,908, official: 396,959, infectious: 40,176, died: 68, dead: 9,700
Sep 11: real: 406,829, official: 398,987, infectious: 39,639, died: 67, dead: 9,767
Sep 12: real: 408,724, official: 400,987, infectious: 39,108, died: 66, dead: 9,833
Sep 13: real: 410,594, official: 402,961, infectious: 38,585, died: 65, dead: 9,898
Sep 14: real: 412,439, official: 404,908, infectious: 38,070, died: 64, dead: 9,962
Sep 15: real: 414,259, official: 406,829, infectious: 37,561, died: 63, dead: 10,025
Sep 16: real: 416,055, official: 408,724, infectious: 37,060, died: 63, dead: 10,088
Sep 17: real: 417,827, official: 410,594, infectious: 36,565, died: 62, dead: 10,150
Sep 18: real: 419,575, official: 412,439, infectious: 36,076, died: 61, dead: 10,211
Sep 19: real: 421,299, official: 414,259, infectious: 35,595, died: 60, dead: 10,271
Sep 20: real: 423,000, official: 416,055, infectious: 35,118, died: 59, dead: 10,330
Sep 21: real: 424,678, official: 417,827, infectious: 34,649, died: 58, dead: 10,388
Sep 22: real: 426,334, official: 419,575, infectious: 34,184, died: 58, dead: 10,446
Sep 23: real: 427,968, official: 421,299, infectious: 33,726, died: 57, dead: 10,503
Sep 24: real: 429,580, official: 423,000, infectious: 33,274, died: 56, dead: 10,559
Sep 25: real: 431,170, official: 424,678, infectious: 32,829, died: 56, dead: 10,615
Sep 26: real: 432,739, official: 426,334, infectious: 32,389, died: 55, dead: 10,670
Sep 27: real: 434,287, official: 427,968, infectious: 31,955, died: 54, dead: 10,724
Sep 28: real: 435,814, official: 429,580, infectious: 31,526, died: 53, dead: 10,777
Sep 29: real: 437,320, official: 431,170, infectious: 31,104, died: 52, dead: 10,829
Sep 30: real: 438,806, official: 432,739, infectious: 30,689, died: 52, dead: 10,881
Oct 1: real: 440,272, official: 434,287, infectious: 30,277, died: 51, dead: 10,932
Oct 2: real: 441,718, official: 435,814, infectious: 29,871, died: 50, dead: 10,982
Oct 3: real: 443,145, official: 437,320, infectious: 29,470, died: 50, dead: 11,032
Oct 4: real: 444,553, official: 438,806, infectious: 29,074, died: 49, dead: 11,081
Oct 5: real: 445,942, official: 440,272, infectious: 28,683, died: 48, dead: 11,129
Oct 6: real: 447,312, official: 441,718, infectious: 28,298, died: 47, dead: 11,176
Oct 7: real: 448,664, official: 443,145, infectious: 27,919, died: 47, dead: 11,223
Oct 8: real: 449,997, official: 444,553, infectious: 27,544, died: 46, dead: 11,269
Oct 9: real: 451,312, official: 445,942, infectious: 27,175, died: 46, dead: 11,315
Oct 10: real: 452,610, official: 447,312, infectious: 26,810, died: 45, dead: 11,360
Oct 11: real: 453,890, official: 448,664, infectious: 26,449, died: 45, dead: 11,405
Oct 12: real: 455,153, official: 449,997, infectious: 26,094, died: 44, dead: 11,449
Oct 13: real: 456,399, official: 451,312, infectious: 25,744, died: 44, dead: 11,493
Oct 14: real: 457,628, official: 452,610, infectious: 25,398, died: 42, dead: 11,535
Oct 15: real: 458,841, official: 453,890, infectious: 25,057, died: 42, dead: 11,577
Oct 16: real: 460,037, official: 455,153, infectious: 24,721, died: 41, dead: 11,618
Oct 17: real: 461,217, official: 456,399, infectious: 24,389, died: 41, dead: 11,659
Oct 18: real: 462,381, official: 457,628, infectious: 24,061, died: 40, dead: 11,699
Oct 19: real: 463,530, official: 458,841, infectious: 23,736, died: 40, dead: 11,739
Oct 20: real: 464,663, official: 460,037, infectious: 23,416, died: 39, dead: 11,778
Oct 21: real: 465,781, official: 461,217, infectious: 23,101, died: 39, dead: 11,817
Oct 22: real: 466,884, official: 462,381, infectious: 22,790, died: 38, dead: 11,855
Oct 23: real: 467,972, official: 463,530, infectious: 22,483, died: 37, dead: 11,892
Oct 24: real: 469,045, official: 464,663, infectious: 22,181, died: 37, dead: 11,929
Oct 25: real: 470,104, official: 465,781, infectious: 21,882, died: 36, dead: 11,965
Oct 26: real: 471,148, official: 466,884, infectious: 21,587, died: 36, dead: 12,001
Oct 27: real: 472,178, official: 467,972, infectious: 21,295, died: 36, dead: 12,037
Oct 28: real: 473,194, official: 469,045, infectious: 21,008, died: 35, dead: 12,072
Oct 29: real: 474,197, official: 470,104, infectious: 20,724, died: 35, dead: 12,107
Oct 30: real: 475,186, official: 471,148, infectious: 20,444, died: 34, dead: 12,141
Oct 31: real: 476,162, official: 472,178, infectious: 20,169, died: 34, dead: 12,175
Nov 1: real: 477,125, official: 473,194, infectious: 19,897, died: 33, dead: 12,208
Nov 2: real: 478,075, official: 474,197, infectious: 19,629, died: 33, dead: 12,241
Nov 3: real: 479,012, official: 475,186, infectious: 19,365, died: 33, dead: 12,274
Nov 4: real: 479,936, official: 476,162, infectious: 19,104, died: 32, dead: 12,306
Nov 5: real: 480,848, official: 477,125, infectious: 18,847, died: 31, dead: 12,337
Nov 6: real: 481,747, official: 478,075, infectious: 18,592, died: 31, dead: 12,368
Nov 7: real: 482,634, official: 479,012, infectious: 18,342, died: 31, dead: 12,399
Nov 8: real: 483,509, official: 479,936, infectious: 18,094, died: 30, dead: 12,429
Nov 9: real: 484,372, official: 480,848, infectious: 17,850, died: 30, dead: 12,459
Nov 10: real: 485,224, official: 481,747, infectious: 17,609, died: 29, dead: 12,488
Nov 11: real: 486,064, official: 482,634, infectious: 17,370, died: 29, dead: 12,517
Nov 12: real: 486,893, official: 483,509, infectious: 17,136, died: 29, dead: 12,546
Nov 13: real: 487,711, official: 484,372, infectious: 16,905, died: 28, dead: 12,574
Nov 14: real: 488,518, official: 485,224, infectious: 16,677, died: 28, dead: 12,602
Nov 15: real: 489,314, official: 486,064, infectious: 16,452, died: 28, dead: 12,630
Nov 16: real: 490,099, official: 486,893, infectious: 16,231, died: 27, dead: 12,657
Nov 17: real: 490,873, official: 487,711, infectious: 16,013, died: 26, dead: 12,683
Nov 18: real: 491,637, official: 488,518, infectious: 15,797, died: 26, dead: 12,709
Nov 19: real: 492,391, official: 489,314, infectious: 15,583, died: 26, dead: 12,735
Nov 20: real: 493,134, official: 490,099, infectious: 15,373, died: 25, dead: 12,760
Nov 21: real: 493,867, official: 490,873, infectious: 15,167, died: 25, dead: 12,785
Nov 22: real: 494,590, official: 491,637, infectious: 14,961, died: 25, dead: 12,810
Nov 23: real: 495,304, official: 492,391, infectious: 14,759, died: 24, dead: 12,834
Nov 24: real: 496,008, official: 493,134, infectious: 14,559, died: 24, dead: 12,858
Nov 25: real: 496,702, official: 493,867, infectious: 14,362, died: 24, dead: 12,882
Nov 26: real: 497,387, official: 494,590, infectious: 14,168, died: 24, dead: 12,906
Nov 27: real: 498,063, official: 495,304, infectious: 13,976, died: 23, dead: 12,929
Nov 28: real: 498,730, official: 496,008, infectious: 13,787, died: 23, dead: 12,952
Nov 29: real: 499,388, official: 496,702, infectious: 13,602, died: 23, dead: 12,975
Nov 30: real: 500,037, official: 497,387, infectious: 13,419, died: 22, dead: 12,997
Dec 1: real: 500,677, official: 498,063, infectious: 13,239, died: 22, dead: 13,019
Dec 2: real: 501,308, official: 498,730, infectious: 13,060, died: 22, dead: 13,041
Dec 3: real: 501,931, official: 499,388, infectious: 12,884, died: 22, dead: 13,063
Dec 4: real: 502,545, official: 500,037, infectious: 12,710, died: 21, dead: 13,084
Dec 5: real: 503,151, official: 500,677, infectious: 12,538, died: 20, dead: 13,104
Dec 6: real: 503,749, official: 501,308, infectious: 12,369, died: 20, dead: 13,124
Dec 7: real: 504,339, official: 501,931, infectious: 12,201, died: 20, dead: 13,144
Dec 8: real: 504,921, official: 502,545, infectious: 12,036, died: 20, dead: 13,164
Dec 9: real: 505,495, official: 503,151, infectious: 11,874, died: 19, dead: 13,183
Dec 10: real: 506,061, official: 503,749, infectious: 11,712, died: 19, dead: 13,202
Dec 11: real: 506,619, official: 504,339, infectious: 11,554, died: 19, dead: 13,221
Dec 12: real: 507,170, official: 504,921, infectious: 11,397, died: 19, dead: 13,240
Dec 13: real: 507,713, official: 505,495, infectious: 11,243, died: 18, dead: 13,258
Dec 14: real: 508,249, official: 506,061, infectious: 11,091, died: 18, dead: 13,276
Dec 15: real: 508,778, official: 506,619, infectious: 10,941, died: 18, dead: 13,294
Dec 16: real: 509,300, official: 507,170, infectious: 10,792, died: 18, dead: 13,312
Dec 17: real: 509,815, official: 507,713, infectious: 10,646, died: 18, dead: 13,330
Dec 18: real: 510,323, official: 508,249, infectious: 10,503, died: 17, dead: 13,347
Dec 19: real: 510,824, official: 508,778, infectious: 10,361, died: 17, dead: 13,364
Dec 20: real: 511,318, official: 509,300, infectious: 10,222, died: 17, dead: 13,381
Dec 21: real: 511,805, official: 509,815, infectious: 10,084, died: 17, dead: 13,398
Dec 22: real: 512,286, official: 510,323, infectious: 9,947, died: 16, dead: 13,414
Dec 23: real: 512,760, official: 510,824, infectious: 9,812, died: 16, dead: 13,430
Dec 24: real: 513,228, official: 511,318, infectious: 9,681, died: 16, dead: 13,446
Dec 25: real: 513,690, official: 511,805, infectious: 9,550, died: 15, dead: 13,461
Dec 26: real: 514,145, official: 512,286, infectious: 9,422, died: 15, dead: 13,476
Dec 27: real: 514,594, official: 512,760, infectious: 9,295, died: 15, dead: 13,491
Dec 28: real: 515,037, official: 513,228, infectious: 9,170, died: 15, dead: 13,506
Dec 29: real: 515,474, official: 513,690, infectious: 9,046, died: 15, dead: 13,521
Dec 30: real: 515,905, official: 514,145, infectious: 8,923, died: 14, dead: 13,535
Dec 31: real: 516,330, official: 514,594, infectious: 8,803, died: 14, dead: 13,549
As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
128: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 23.
0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS
0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
13,549: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment:
---------------
13,549: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Math Report:
Official Growth: 104.87% = Apparent Beta: 0.0487
Official uninf: 39,840,667 / Adult Pop.: 40,000,000 = Choke Rate: 99.60%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0040
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 104.89% = Adjusted Beta: 0.0489