Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.
G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH spaceHover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.
If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.
How to read the Log Chart: Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths. Right, dotted lines: projections. Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on. Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different. Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20. A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in, and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat. Forced deaths start about a week after when the red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region, meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators. Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region, and you run out of staffed hospital bed space. Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon. As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink in the black Death rate simulation line at Today. Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated, in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away. Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions. We are working to improve this simulation factor soon. Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical. Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes. Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off. As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this. Since the log Growth curve has recently changed and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S., we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast. Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected. Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.
Wed, Jul 1, 2020:
The curve is now 10x in 702 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Canada run out of space,
is forecast to be NEVER.
And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Canada are used up,
is forecast to be NEVER.
May the officials use this time wisely.
As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 9: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 3. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 8,568: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 8,568: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.
Canada COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul 1, 2020: (using Beta = 0.003, at 100.33% Growth per day) Starting Run: Mar 1: real: 37, official: 24, infectious: 37, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 2: real: 54, official: 27, infectious: 54, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 3: real: 60, official: 30, infectious: 60, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 4: real: 66, official: 34, infectious: 66, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 5: real: 77, official: 37, infectious: 77, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 6: real: 95, official: 54, infectious: 95, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 7: real: 110, official: 60, infectious: 110, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 8: real: 142, official: 66, infectious: 142, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 9: real: 198, official: 77, infectious: 198, died: 1, dead: 1 Mar 10: real: 252, official: 95, infectious: 252, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 11: real: 341, official: 110, infectious: 341, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 12: real: 441, official: 142, infectious: 441, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 13: real: 598, official: 198, infectious: 598, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 14: real: 727, official: 252, infectious: 727, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 15: real: 873, official: 341, infectious: 873, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 16: real: 1,087, official: 441, infectious: 1,087, died: 3, dead: 4 Mar 17: real: 1,328, official: 598, infectious: 1,328, died: 4, dead: 8 Mar 18: real: 1,470, official: 727, infectious: 1,470, died: 1, dead: 9 Mar 19: real: 2,091, official: 873, infectious: 2,091, died: 3, dead: 12 Mar 20: real: 2,792, official: 1,087, infectious: 2,792, died: 0, dead: 12 Mar 21: real: 3,409, official: 1,328, infectious: 3,409, died: 7, dead: 19 Mar 22: real: 4,043, official: 1,470, infectious: 4,043, died: 1, dead: 20 Mar 23: real: 4,757, official: 2,091, infectious: 4,757, died: 4, dead: 24 Mar 24: real: 5,655, official: 2,792, infectious: 5,655, died: 2, dead: 26 Mar 25: real: 6,320, official: 3,409, infectious: 6,320, died: 10, dead: 36 Mar 26: real: 7,448, official: 4,043, infectious: 7,448, died: 3, dead: 39 Mar 27: real: 8,612, official: 4,757, infectious: 8,612, died: 16, dead: 55 Mar 28: real: 9,731, official: 5,655, infectious: 9,731, died: 5, dead: 60 Mar 29: real: 11,283, official: 6,320, infectious: 11,283, died: 5, dead: 65 Mar 30: real: 12,375, official: 7,448, infectious: 12,375, died: 24, dead: 89 Mar 31: real: 13,912, official: 8,612, infectious: 13,912, died: 12, dead: 101 Apr 1: real: 15,512, official: 9,731, infectious: 15,512, died: 13, dead: 114 Apr 2: real: 16,667, official: 11,283, infectious: 16,667, died: 59, dead: 173 Apr 3: real: 17,897, official: 12,375, infectious: 17,897, died: 35, dead: 208 Apr 4: real: 19,438, official: 13,912, infectious: 19,438, died: 23, dead: 231 Apr 5: real: 20,765, official: 15,512, infectious: 20,765, died: 49, dead: 280 Apr 6: real: 22,148, official: 16,667, infectious: 22,148, died: 43, dead: 323 Apr 7: real: 23,318, official: 17,897, infectious: 23,318, died: 58, dead: 381 Apr 8: real: 24,383, official: 19,438, infectious: 24,383, died: 46, dead: 427 Apr 9: real: 25,680, official: 20,765, infectious: 25,680, died: 82, dead: 509 Apr 10: real: 27,063, official: 22,148, infectious: 27,063, died: 60, dead: 569 Apr 11: real: 28,379, official: 23,318, infectious: 28,379, died: 84, dead: 653 Apr 12: real: 30,106, official: 24,383, infectious: 30,106, died: 64, dead: 717 Apr 13: real: 31,927, official: 25,680, infectious: 31,927, died: 63, dead: 780 Apr 14: real: 33,383, official: 27,063, infectious: 33,383, died: 123, dead: 903 Apr 15: real: 35,056, official: 28,379, infectious: 35,056, died: 107, dead: 1,010 Apr 16: real: 36,829, official: 30,106, infectious: 36,829, died: 185, dead: 1,195 Apr 17: real: 38,422, official: 31,927, infectious: 38,422, died: 115, dead: 1,310 Apr 18: real: 40,190, official: 33,383, infectious: 40,190, died: 160, dead: 1,470 Apr 19: real: 42,110, official: 35,056, infectious: 42,110, died: 117, dead: 1,587 Apr 20: real: 43,888, official: 36,829, infectious: 43,888, died: 103, dead: 1,690 Apr 21: real: 45,354, official: 38,422, infectious: 45,354, died: 144, dead: 1,834 Apr 22: real: 46,895, official: 40,190, infectious: 46,895, died: 140, dead: 1,974 Apr 23: real: 48,500, official: 42,110, infectious: 48,500, died: 173, dead: 2,147 Apr 24: real: 50,026, official: 43,888, infectious: 50,026, died: 155, dead: 2,302 Apr 25: real: 51,597, official: 45,354, infectious: 51,597, died: 163, dead: 2,465 Apr 26: real: 53,236, official: 46,895, infectious: 53,236, died: 95, dead: 2,560 Apr 27: real: 55,061, official: 48,500, infectious: 55,061, died: 147, dead: 2,707 Apr 28: real: 56,714, official: 50,026, infectious: 56,714, died: 152, dead: 2,859 Apr 29: real: 59,474, official: 51,597, infectious: 59,474, died: 137, dead: 2,996 Apr 30: real: 60,772, official: 53,236, infectious: 60,772, died: 188, dead: 3,184 May 1: real: 62,046, official: 55,061, infectious: 62,046, died: 207, dead: 3,391 May 2: real: 63,496, official: 56,714, infectious: 63,496, died: 175, dead: 3,566 May 3: real: 64,922, official: 59,474, infectious: 64,922, died: 116, dead: 3,682 May 4: real: 66,434, official: 60,772, infectious: 66,434, died: 172, dead: 3,854 May 5: real: 67,702, official: 62,046, infectious: 67,702, died: 189, dead: 4,043 May 6: real: 68,848, official: 63,496, infectious: 68,848, died: 189, dead: 4,232 May 7: real: 69,981, official: 64,922, infectious: 69,981, died: 176, dead: 4,408 May 8: real: 71,157, official: 66,434, infectious: 71,157, died: 161, dead: 4,569 May 9: real: 72,278, official: 67,702, infectious: 72,278, died: 124, dead: 4,693 May 10: real: 73,401, official: 68,848, infectious: 73,401, died: 177, dead: 4,870 May 11: real: 74,613, official: 69,981, infectious: 74,613, died: 123, dead: 4,993 May 12: real: 75,864, official: 71,157, infectious: 75,864, died: 176, dead: 5,169 May 13: real: 77,002, official: 72,278, infectious: 77,002, died: 133, dead: 5,302 May 14: real: 78,072, official: 73,401, infectious: 78,072, died: 170, dead: 5,472 May 15: real: 79,112, official: 74,613, infectious: 79,112, died: 90, dead: 5,562 May 16: real: 80,142, official: 75,864, infectious: 80,142, died: 117, dead: 5,679 May 17: real: 81,324, official: 77,002, infectious: 81,324, died: 103, dead: 5,782 May 18: real: 82,480, official: 78,072, infectious: 82,480, died: 60, dead: 5,842 May 19: real: 83,621, official: 79,112, infectious: 83,621, died: 70, dead: 5,912 May 20: real: 84,699, official: 80,142, infectious: 84,699, died: 119, dead: 6,031 May 21: real: 85,711, official: 81,324, infectious: 85,711, died: 121, dead: 6,152 May 22: real: 86,647, official: 82,480, infectious: 86,647, died: 98, dead: 6,250 May 23: real: 87,519, official: 83,621, infectious: 87,519, died: 105, dead: 6,355 May 24: real: 88,512, official: 84,699, infectious: 88,512, died: 69, dead: 6,424 May 25: real: 89,418, official: 85,711, infectious: 89,418, died: 121, dead: 6,545 May 26: real: 90,190, official: 86,647, infectious: 90,190, died: 94, dead: 6,639 May 27: real: 90,947, official: 87,519, infectious: 90,947, died: 126, dead: 6,765 May 28: real: 91,705, official: 88,512, infectious: 91,705, died: 112, dead: 6,877 May 29: real: 92,410, official: 89,418, infectious: 92,410, died: 102, dead: 6,979 May 30: real: 93,085, official: 90,190, infectious: 93,085, died: 94, dead: 7,073 May 31: real: 93,726, official: 90,947, infectious: 93,726, died: 222, dead: 7,295 Jun 1: real: 94,335, official: 91,705, infectious: 94,335, died: 31, dead: 7,326 Jun 2: real: 95,057, official: 92,410, infectious: 95,057, died: 69, dead: 7,395 Jun 3: real: 95,699, official: 93,085, infectious: 95,699, died: 103, dead: 7,498 Jun 4: real: 96,244, official: 93,726, infectious: 96,244, died: 139, dead: 7,637 Jun 5: real: 96,653, official: 94,335, infectious: 96,653, died: 66, dead: 7,703 Jun 6: real: 97,125, official: 95,057, infectious: 97,125, died: 70, dead: 7,773 Jun 7: real: 97,530, official: 95,699, infectious: 97,530, died: 27, dead: 7,800 Jun 8: real: 97,943, official: 96,244, infectious: 97,943, died: 35, dead: 7,835 Jun 9: real: 98,410, official: 96,653, infectious: 98,410, died: 62, dead: 7,897 Jun 10: real: 98,787, official: 97,125, infectious: 98,787, died: 63, dead: 7,960 Jun 11: real: 99,147, official: 97,530, infectious: 99,147, died: 34, dead: 7,994 Jun 12: real: 99,467, official: 97,943, infectious: 99,467, died: 55, dead: 8,049 Jun 13: real: 99,853, official: 98,410, infectious: 99,853, died: 58, dead: 8,107 Jun 14: real: 100,220, official: 98,787, infectious: 100,220, died: 39, dead: 8,146 Jun 15: real: 100,629, official: 99,147, infectious: 100,629, died: 29, dead: 8,175 Jun 16: real: 101,019, official: 99,467, infectious: 101,019, died: 38, dead: 8,213 Jun 17: real: 101,337, official: 99,853, infectious: 101,337, died: 41, dead: 8,254 Jun 18: real: 101,637, official: 100,220, infectious: 101,637, died: 46, dead: 8,300 Jun 19: real: 101,963, official: 100,629, infectious: 101,963, died: 46, dead: 8,346 Jun 20: real: 102,242, official: 101,019, infectious: 102,242, died: 64, dead: 8,410 Jun 21: real: 102,622, official: 101,337, infectious: 102,622, died: 20, dead: 8,430 Jun 22: real: 102,794, official: 101,637, infectious: 102,794, died: 6, dead: 8,436 Jun 23: real: 103,032, official: 101,963, infectious: 103,032, died: 18, dead: 8,454 Jun 24: real: 103,250, official: 102,242, infectious: 103,250, died: 30, dead: 8,484 Jun 25: real: 103,918, official: 102,622, infectious: 103,918, died: 20, dead: 8,504 Jun 26: real: 104,204, official: 102,794, infectious: 104,204, died: 4, dead: 8,508 Jun 27: real: 104,271, official: 103,032, infectious: 104,271, died: 8, dead: 8,516 ...simulation engine starts here... Jun 28: real: 104,291, official: 103,250, infectious: 6,124, died: 3, dead: 8,519 Jun 29: real: 104,310, official: 103,918, infectious: 5,865, died: 4, dead: 8,523 Jun 30: real: 104,328, official: 104,204, infectious: 5,498, died: 2, dead: 8,525 Jul 1: real: 104,345, official: 104,271, infectious: 5,091, died: 3, dead: 8,528 Jul 2: real: 104,361, official: 104,291, infectious: 4,746, died: 2, dead: 8,530 Jul 3: real: 104,376, official: 104,310, infectious: 4,443, died: 9, dead: 8,539 Jul 4: real: 104,390, official: 104,328, infectious: 4,162, died: 3, dead: 8,542 Jul 5: real: 104,403, official: 104,345, infectious: 3,817, died: 0, dead: 8,542 Jul 6: real: 104,414, official: 104,361, infectious: 3,430, died: 0, dead: 8,542 Jul 7: real: 104,424, official: 104,376, infectious: 3,071, died: 3, dead: 8,545 Jul 8: real: 104,433, official: 104,390, infectious: 2,758, died: 4, dead: 8,549 Jul 9: real: 104,441, official: 104,403, infectious: 2,511, died: 2, dead: 8,551 Jul 10: real: 104,448, official: 104,414, infectious: 2,276, died: 3, dead: 8,554 Jul 11: real: 104,455, official: 104,424, infectious: 2,020, died: 2, dead: 8,556 Jul 12: real: 104,461, official: 104,433, infectious: 1,801, died: 9, dead: 8,565 Jul 13: real: 104,466, official: 104,441, infectious: 1,500, died: 3, dead: 8,568 Jul 14: real: 104,470, official: 104,448, infectious: 1,365, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 15: real: 104,474, official: 104,455, infectious: 1,177, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 16: real: 104,477, official: 104,461, infectious: 1,004, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 17: real: 104,479, official: 104,466, infectious: 472, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 18: real: 104,480, official: 104,470, infectious: 244, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 19: real: 104,481, official: 104,474, infectious: 189, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 20: real: 104,482, official: 104,477, infectious: 172, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 21: real: 104,483, official: 104,479, infectious: 155, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 22: real: 104,483, official: 104,480, infectious: 139, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 23: real: 104,483, official: 104,481, infectious: 125, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 24: real: 104,483, official: 104,482, infectious: 111, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 25: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 98, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 26: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 86, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 27: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 74, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 28: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 64, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 29: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 55, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 30: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 47, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Jul 31: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 40, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 1: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 34, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 2: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 28, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 3: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 22, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 4: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 17, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 5: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 13, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 6: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 9, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 7: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 6, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 8: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 4, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 9: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 3, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 10: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 2, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 11: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 1, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 12: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 13: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 14: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 15: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 16: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 17: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 18: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 19: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 20: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 21: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 22: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 23: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 24: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 25: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 26: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 27: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 28: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 29: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 30: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Aug 31: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 1: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 2: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 3: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 4: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 5: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 6: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 7: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 8: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 9: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 10: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 11: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 12: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 13: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 14: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 15: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 16: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 17: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 18: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 19: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 20: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 21: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 22: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 23: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 24: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 25: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 26: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 27: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 28: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 29: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Sep 30: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 1: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 2: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 3: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 4: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 5: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 6: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 7: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 8: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 9: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 10: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 11: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 12: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 13: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 14: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 15: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 16: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 17: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 18: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 19: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 20: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 21: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 22: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 23: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 24: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 25: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 26: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 27: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 28: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 29: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 30: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Oct 31: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 1: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 2: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 3: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 4: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 5: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 6: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 7: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 8: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 9: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 10: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 11: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 12: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 13: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 14: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 15: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 16: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 17: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 18: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 19: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 20: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 21: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 22: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 23: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 24: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 25: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 26: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 27: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 28: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 29: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Nov 30: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 1: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 2: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 3: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 4: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 5: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 6: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 7: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 8: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 9: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 10: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 11: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 12: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 13: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 14: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 15: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 16: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 17: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 18: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 19: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 20: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 21: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 22: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 23: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 24: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 25: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 26: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 27: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 28: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 29: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 30: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 Dec 31: real: 104,483, official: 104,483, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 8,568 As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 9: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 3. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 8,568: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 8,568: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS Math Report: Official Growth: 100.33% = Apparent Beta: 0.0033 Official uninf: 29,895,729 / Adult Pop.: 30,000,000 = Choke Rate: 99.65% Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0035 Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.33% = Adjusted Beta: 0.0033