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COVID-19 Forecast for Canada, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
702 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Canada HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 702 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Canada run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Canada are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          9:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      8,568:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      8,568:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Canada COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.003, at 100.33% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 37,  official: 24,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 54,  official: 27,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 60,  official: 30,  infectious: 60,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 66,  official: 34,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 77,  official: 37,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 95,  official: 54,  infectious: 95,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 110,  official: 60,  infectious: 110,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 142,  official: 66,  infectious: 142,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 198,  official: 77,  infectious: 198,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 10:  real: 252,  official: 95,  infectious: 252,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 11:  real: 341,  official: 110,  infectious: 341,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 12:  real: 441,  official: 142,  infectious: 441,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 598,  official: 198,  infectious: 598,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 14:  real: 727,  official: 252,  infectious: 727,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 15:  real: 873,  official: 341,  infectious: 873,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 16:  real: 1,087,  official: 441,  infectious: 1,087,  died: 3,  dead: 4

Mar 17:  real: 1,328,  official: 598,  infectious: 1,328,  died: 4,  dead: 8

Mar 18:  real: 1,470,  official: 727,  infectious: 1,470,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Mar 19:  real: 2,091,  official: 873,  infectious: 2,091,  died: 3,  dead: 12

Mar 20:  real: 2,792,  official: 1,087,  infectious: 2,792,  died: 0,  dead: 12

Mar 21:  real: 3,409,  official: 1,328,  infectious: 3,409,  died: 7,  dead: 19

Mar 22:  real: 4,043,  official: 1,470,  infectious: 4,043,  died: 1,  dead: 20

Mar 23:  real: 4,757,  official: 2,091,  infectious: 4,757,  died: 4,  dead: 24

Mar 24:  real: 5,655,  official: 2,792,  infectious: 5,655,  died: 2,  dead: 26

Mar 25:  real: 6,320,  official: 3,409,  infectious: 6,320,  died: 10,  dead: 36

Mar 26:  real: 7,448,  official: 4,043,  infectious: 7,448,  died: 3,  dead: 39

Mar 27:  real: 8,612,  official: 4,757,  infectious: 8,612,  died: 16,  dead: 55

Mar 28:  real: 9,731,  official: 5,655,  infectious: 9,731,  died: 5,  dead: 60

Mar 29:  real: 11,283,  official: 6,320,  infectious: 11,283,  died: 5,  dead: 65

Mar 30:  real: 12,375,  official: 7,448,  infectious: 12,375,  died: 24,  dead: 89

Mar 31:  real: 13,912,  official: 8,612,  infectious: 13,912,  died: 12,  dead: 101

Apr  1:  real: 15,512,  official: 9,731,  infectious: 15,512,  died: 13,  dead: 114

Apr  2:  real: 16,667,  official: 11,283,  infectious: 16,667,  died: 59,  dead: 173

Apr  3:  real: 17,897,  official: 12,375,  infectious: 17,897,  died: 35,  dead: 208

Apr  4:  real: 19,438,  official: 13,912,  infectious: 19,438,  died: 23,  dead: 231

Apr  5:  real: 20,765,  official: 15,512,  infectious: 20,765,  died: 49,  dead: 280

Apr  6:  real: 22,148,  official: 16,667,  infectious: 22,148,  died: 43,  dead: 323

Apr  7:  real: 23,318,  official: 17,897,  infectious: 23,318,  died: 58,  dead: 381

Apr  8:  real: 24,383,  official: 19,438,  infectious: 24,383,  died: 46,  dead: 427

Apr  9:  real: 25,680,  official: 20,765,  infectious: 25,680,  died: 82,  dead: 509

Apr 10:  real: 27,063,  official: 22,148,  infectious: 27,063,  died: 60,  dead: 569

Apr 11:  real: 28,379,  official: 23,318,  infectious: 28,379,  died: 84,  dead: 653

Apr 12:  real: 30,106,  official: 24,383,  infectious: 30,106,  died: 64,  dead: 717

Apr 13:  real: 31,927,  official: 25,680,  infectious: 31,927,  died: 63,  dead: 780

Apr 14:  real: 33,383,  official: 27,063,  infectious: 33,383,  died: 123,  dead: 903

Apr 15:  real: 35,056,  official: 28,379,  infectious: 35,056,  died: 107,  dead: 1,010

Apr 16:  real: 36,829,  official: 30,106,  infectious: 36,829,  died: 185,  dead: 1,195

Apr 17:  real: 38,422,  official: 31,927,  infectious: 38,422,  died: 115,  dead: 1,310

Apr 18:  real: 40,190,  official: 33,383,  infectious: 40,190,  died: 160,  dead: 1,470

Apr 19:  real: 42,110,  official: 35,056,  infectious: 42,110,  died: 117,  dead: 1,587

Apr 20:  real: 43,888,  official: 36,829,  infectious: 43,888,  died: 103,  dead: 1,690

Apr 21:  real: 45,354,  official: 38,422,  infectious: 45,354,  died: 144,  dead: 1,834

Apr 22:  real: 46,895,  official: 40,190,  infectious: 46,895,  died: 140,  dead: 1,974

Apr 23:  real: 48,500,  official: 42,110,  infectious: 48,500,  died: 173,  dead: 2,147

Apr 24:  real: 50,026,  official: 43,888,  infectious: 50,026,  died: 155,  dead: 2,302

Apr 25:  real: 51,597,  official: 45,354,  infectious: 51,597,  died: 163,  dead: 2,465

Apr 26:  real: 53,236,  official: 46,895,  infectious: 53,236,  died: 95,  dead: 2,560

Apr 27:  real: 55,061,  official: 48,500,  infectious: 55,061,  died: 147,  dead: 2,707

Apr 28:  real: 56,714,  official: 50,026,  infectious: 56,714,  died: 152,  dead: 2,859

Apr 29:  real: 59,474,  official: 51,597,  infectious: 59,474,  died: 137,  dead: 2,996

Apr 30:  real: 60,772,  official: 53,236,  infectious: 60,772,  died: 188,  dead: 3,184

May  1:  real: 62,046,  official: 55,061,  infectious: 62,046,  died: 207,  dead: 3,391

May  2:  real: 63,496,  official: 56,714,  infectious: 63,496,  died: 175,  dead: 3,566

May  3:  real: 64,922,  official: 59,474,  infectious: 64,922,  died: 116,  dead: 3,682

May  4:  real: 66,434,  official: 60,772,  infectious: 66,434,  died: 172,  dead: 3,854

May  5:  real: 67,702,  official: 62,046,  infectious: 67,702,  died: 189,  dead: 4,043

May  6:  real: 68,848,  official: 63,496,  infectious: 68,848,  died: 189,  dead: 4,232

May  7:  real: 69,981,  official: 64,922,  infectious: 69,981,  died: 176,  dead: 4,408

May  8:  real: 71,157,  official: 66,434,  infectious: 71,157,  died: 161,  dead: 4,569

May  9:  real: 72,278,  official: 67,702,  infectious: 72,278,  died: 124,  dead: 4,693

May 10:  real: 73,401,  official: 68,848,  infectious: 73,401,  died: 177,  dead: 4,870

May 11:  real: 74,613,  official: 69,981,  infectious: 74,613,  died: 123,  dead: 4,993

May 12:  real: 75,864,  official: 71,157,  infectious: 75,864,  died: 176,  dead: 5,169

May 13:  real: 77,002,  official: 72,278,  infectious: 77,002,  died: 133,  dead: 5,302

May 14:  real: 78,072,  official: 73,401,  infectious: 78,072,  died: 170,  dead: 5,472

May 15:  real: 79,112,  official: 74,613,  infectious: 79,112,  died: 90,  dead: 5,562

May 16:  real: 80,142,  official: 75,864,  infectious: 80,142,  died: 117,  dead: 5,679

May 17:  real: 81,324,  official: 77,002,  infectious: 81,324,  died: 103,  dead: 5,782

May 18:  real: 82,480,  official: 78,072,  infectious: 82,480,  died: 60,  dead: 5,842

May 19:  real: 83,621,  official: 79,112,  infectious: 83,621,  died: 70,  dead: 5,912

May 20:  real: 84,699,  official: 80,142,  infectious: 84,699,  died: 119,  dead: 6,031

May 21:  real: 85,711,  official: 81,324,  infectious: 85,711,  died: 121,  dead: 6,152

May 22:  real: 86,647,  official: 82,480,  infectious: 86,647,  died: 98,  dead: 6,250

May 23:  real: 87,519,  official: 83,621,  infectious: 87,519,  died: 105,  dead: 6,355

May 24:  real: 88,512,  official: 84,699,  infectious: 88,512,  died: 69,  dead: 6,424

May 25:  real: 89,418,  official: 85,711,  infectious: 89,418,  died: 121,  dead: 6,545

May 26:  real: 90,190,  official: 86,647,  infectious: 90,190,  died: 94,  dead: 6,639

May 27:  real: 90,947,  official: 87,519,  infectious: 90,947,  died: 126,  dead: 6,765

May 28:  real: 91,705,  official: 88,512,  infectious: 91,705,  died: 112,  dead: 6,877

May 29:  real: 92,410,  official: 89,418,  infectious: 92,410,  died: 102,  dead: 6,979

May 30:  real: 93,085,  official: 90,190,  infectious: 93,085,  died: 94,  dead: 7,073

May 31:  real: 93,726,  official: 90,947,  infectious: 93,726,  died: 222,  dead: 7,295

Jun  1:  real: 94,335,  official: 91,705,  infectious: 94,335,  died: 31,  dead: 7,326

Jun  2:  real: 95,057,  official: 92,410,  infectious: 95,057,  died: 69,  dead: 7,395

Jun  3:  real: 95,699,  official: 93,085,  infectious: 95,699,  died: 103,  dead: 7,498

Jun  4:  real: 96,244,  official: 93,726,  infectious: 96,244,  died: 139,  dead: 7,637

Jun  5:  real: 96,653,  official: 94,335,  infectious: 96,653,  died: 66,  dead: 7,703

Jun  6:  real: 97,125,  official: 95,057,  infectious: 97,125,  died: 70,  dead: 7,773

Jun  7:  real: 97,530,  official: 95,699,  infectious: 97,530,  died: 27,  dead: 7,800

Jun  8:  real: 97,943,  official: 96,244,  infectious: 97,943,  died: 35,  dead: 7,835

Jun  9:  real: 98,410,  official: 96,653,  infectious: 98,410,  died: 62,  dead: 7,897

Jun 10:  real: 98,787,  official: 97,125,  infectious: 98,787,  died: 63,  dead: 7,960

Jun 11:  real: 99,147,  official: 97,530,  infectious: 99,147,  died: 34,  dead: 7,994

Jun 12:  real: 99,467,  official: 97,943,  infectious: 99,467,  died: 55,  dead: 8,049

Jun 13:  real: 99,853,  official: 98,410,  infectious: 99,853,  died: 58,  dead: 8,107

Jun 14:  real: 100,220,  official: 98,787,  infectious: 100,220,  died: 39,  dead: 8,146

Jun 15:  real: 100,629,  official: 99,147,  infectious: 100,629,  died: 29,  dead: 8,175

Jun 16:  real: 101,019,  official: 99,467,  infectious: 101,019,  died: 38,  dead: 8,213

Jun 17:  real: 101,337,  official: 99,853,  infectious: 101,337,  died: 41,  dead: 8,254

Jun 18:  real: 101,637,  official: 100,220,  infectious: 101,637,  died: 46,  dead: 8,300

Jun 19:  real: 101,963,  official: 100,629,  infectious: 101,963,  died: 46,  dead: 8,346

Jun 20:  real: 102,242,  official: 101,019,  infectious: 102,242,  died: 64,  dead: 8,410

Jun 21:  real: 102,622,  official: 101,337,  infectious: 102,622,  died: 20,  dead: 8,430

Jun 22:  real: 102,794,  official: 101,637,  infectious: 102,794,  died: 6,  dead: 8,436

Jun 23:  real: 103,032,  official: 101,963,  infectious: 103,032,  died: 18,  dead: 8,454

Jun 24:  real: 103,250,  official: 102,242,  infectious: 103,250,  died: 30,  dead: 8,484

Jun 25:  real: 103,918,  official: 102,622,  infectious: 103,918,  died: 20,  dead: 8,504

Jun 26:  real: 104,204,  official: 102,794,  infectious: 104,204,  died: 4,  dead: 8,508

Jun 27:  real: 104,271,  official: 103,032,  infectious: 104,271,  died: 8,  dead: 8,516

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 104,291,  official: 103,250,  infectious: 6,124,  died: 3,  dead: 8,519

Jun 29:  real: 104,310,  official: 103,918,  infectious: 5,865,  died: 4,  dead: 8,523

Jun 30:  real: 104,328,  official: 104,204,  infectious: 5,498,  died: 2,  dead: 8,525

Jul  1:  real: 104,345,  official: 104,271,  infectious: 5,091,  died: 3,  dead: 8,528

Jul  2:  real: 104,361,  official: 104,291,  infectious: 4,746,  died: 2,  dead: 8,530

Jul  3:  real: 104,376,  official: 104,310,  infectious: 4,443,  died: 9,  dead: 8,539

Jul  4:  real: 104,390,  official: 104,328,  infectious: 4,162,  died: 3,  dead: 8,542

Jul  5:  real: 104,403,  official: 104,345,  infectious: 3,817,  died: 0,  dead: 8,542

Jul  6:  real: 104,414,  official: 104,361,  infectious: 3,430,  died: 0,  dead: 8,542

Jul  7:  real: 104,424,  official: 104,376,  infectious: 3,071,  died: 3,  dead: 8,545

Jul  8:  real: 104,433,  official: 104,390,  infectious: 2,758,  died: 4,  dead: 8,549

Jul  9:  real: 104,441,  official: 104,403,  infectious: 2,511,  died: 2,  dead: 8,551

Jul 10:  real: 104,448,  official: 104,414,  infectious: 2,276,  died: 3,  dead: 8,554

Jul 11:  real: 104,455,  official: 104,424,  infectious: 2,020,  died: 2,  dead: 8,556

Jul 12:  real: 104,461,  official: 104,433,  infectious: 1,801,  died: 9,  dead: 8,565

Jul 13:  real: 104,466,  official: 104,441,  infectious: 1,500,  died: 3,  dead: 8,568

Jul 14:  real: 104,470,  official: 104,448,  infectious: 1,365,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 15:  real: 104,474,  official: 104,455,  infectious: 1,177,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 16:  real: 104,477,  official: 104,461,  infectious: 1,004,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 17:  real: 104,479,  official: 104,466,  infectious: 472,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 18:  real: 104,480,  official: 104,470,  infectious: 244,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 19:  real: 104,481,  official: 104,474,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 20:  real: 104,482,  official: 104,477,  infectious: 172,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 21:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,479,  infectious: 155,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 22:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,480,  infectious: 139,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 23:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,481,  infectious: 125,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 24:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,482,  infectious: 111,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 25:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 26:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 27:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 28:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 29:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 30:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Jul 31:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  1:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  2:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  3:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  4:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  5:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  6:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  7:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  8:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug  9:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 10:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 11:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 12:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 13:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 14:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 15:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 16:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 17:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 18:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 19:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 20:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 21:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 22:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 23:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 24:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 25:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 26:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 27:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 28:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 29:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 30:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Aug 31:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  1:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  2:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  3:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  4:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  5:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  6:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  7:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  8:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep  9:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 10:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 11:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 12:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 13:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 14:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 15:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 16:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 17:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 18:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 19:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 20:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 21:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 22:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 23:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 24:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 25:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 26:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 27:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 28:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 29:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Sep 30:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  1:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  2:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  3:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  4:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  5:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  6:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  7:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  8:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct  9:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 10:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 11:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 12:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 13:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 14:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 15:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 16:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 17:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 18:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 19:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 20:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 21:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 22:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 23:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 24:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 25:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 26:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 27:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 28:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 29:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 30:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Oct 31:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  1:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  2:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  3:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  4:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  5:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  6:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  7:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  8:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov  9:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 10:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 11:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 12:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 13:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 14:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 15:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 16:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 17:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 18:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 19:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 20:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 21:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 22:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 23:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 24:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 25:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 26:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 27:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 28:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 29:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Nov 30:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  1:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  2:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  3:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  4:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  5:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  6:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  7:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  8:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec  9:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 10:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 11:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 12:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 13:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 14:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 15:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 16:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 17:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 18:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 19:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 20:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 21:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 22:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 23:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 24:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 25:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 26:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 27:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 28:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 29:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 30:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

Dec 31:  real: 104,483,  official: 104,483,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 8,568

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          9:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      8,568:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      8,568:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.33%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0033
Official uninf: 29,895,729 / Adult Pop.: 30,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.65%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0035
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.33%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0033