Please Donate

World Countries' Leaderboard

COVID-19 Forecast for Sweden, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
221 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Sweden HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 221 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Sweden run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Sweden are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       600 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         52:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
        237:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      5,470:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      5,707:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Sweden COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.010, at 101.05% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 87,  official: 14,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 146,  official: 19,  infectious: 146,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 179,  official: 32,  infectious: 179,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 225,  official: 62,  infectious: 225,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 326,  official: 87,  infectious: 326,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 424,  official: 146,  infectious: 424,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 620,  official: 179,  infectious: 620,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 771,  official: 225,  infectious: 771,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 923,  official: 326,  infectious: 923,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 994,  official: 424,  infectious: 994,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 1,063,  official: 620,  infectious: 1,063,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 12:  real: 1,146,  official: 771,  infectious: 1,146,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 1,265,  official: 923,  infectious: 1,265,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 14:  real: 1,410,  official: 994,  infectious: 1,410,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 15:  real: 1,553,  official: 1,063,  infectious: 1,553,  died: 2,  dead: 5

Mar 16:  real: 1,733,  official: 1,146,  infectious: 1,733,  died: 2,  dead: 7

Mar 17:  real: 1,867,  official: 1,265,  infectious: 1,867,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Mar 18:  real: 1,984,  official: 1,410,  infectious: 1,984,  died: 6,  dead: 14

Mar 19:  real: 2,166,  official: 1,553,  infectious: 2,166,  died: 7,  dead: 21

Mar 20:  real: 2,396,  official: 1,733,  infectious: 2,396,  died: 9,  dead: 30

Mar 21:  real: 2,710,  official: 1,867,  infectious: 2,710,  died: 8,  dead: 38

Mar 22:  real: 2,996,  official: 1,984,  infectious: 2,996,  died: 11,  dead: 49

Mar 23:  real: 3,362,  official: 2,166,  infectious: 3,362,  died: 11,  dead: 60

Mar 24:  real: 3,662,  official: 2,396,  infectious: 3,662,  died: 21,  dead: 81

Mar 25:  real: 3,943,  official: 2,710,  infectious: 3,943,  died: 22,  dead: 103

Mar 26:  real: 4,359,  official: 2,996,  infectious: 4,359,  died: 31,  dead: 134

Mar 27:  real: 4,834,  official: 3,362,  infectious: 4,834,  died: 32,  dead: 166

Mar 28:  real: 5,320,  official: 3,662,  infectious: 5,320,  died: 35,  dead: 201

Mar 29:  real: 5,874,  official: 3,943,  infectious: 5,874,  died: 38,  dead: 239

Mar 30:  real: 6,475,  official: 4,359,  infectious: 6,475,  died: 45,  dead: 284

Mar 31:  real: 6,832,  official: 4,834,  infectious: 6,832,  died: 48,  dead: 332

Apr  1:  real: 7,172,  official: 5,320,  infectious: 7,172,  died: 53,  dead: 385

Apr  2:  real: 7,561,  official: 5,874,  infectious: 7,561,  died: 70,  dead: 455

Apr  3:  real: 8,299,  official: 6,475,  infectious: 8,299,  died: 80,  dead: 535

Apr  4:  real: 8,954,  official: 6,832,  infectious: 8,954,  died: 70,  dead: 605

Apr  5:  real: 9,599,  official: 7,172,  infectious: 9,599,  died: 85,  dead: 690

Apr  6:  real: 10,053,  official: 7,561,  infectious: 10,053,  died: 90,  dead: 780

Apr  7:  real: 10,448,  official: 8,299,  infectious: 10,448,  died: 84,  dead: 864

Apr  8:  real: 10,912,  official: 8,954,  infectious: 10,912,  died: 115,  dead: 979

Apr  9:  real: 11,349,  official: 9,599,  infectious: 11,349,  died: 86,  dead: 1,065

Apr 10:  real: 11,829,  official: 10,053,  infectious: 11,829,  died: 90,  dead: 1,155

Apr 11:  real: 12,433,  official: 10,448,  infectious: 12,433,  died: 103,  dead: 1,258

Apr 12:  real: 13,056,  official: 10,912,  infectious: 13,056,  died: 97,  dead: 1,355

Apr 13:  real: 13,744,  official: 11,349,  infectious: 13,744,  died: 85,  dead: 1,440

Apr 14:  real: 14,276,  official: 11,829,  infectious: 14,276,  died: 91,  dead: 1,531

Apr 15:  real: 14,664,  official: 12,433,  infectious: 14,664,  died: 115,  dead: 1,646

Apr 16:  real: 15,125,  official: 13,056,  infectious: 15,125,  died: 111,  dead: 1,757

Apr 17:  real: 15,831,  official: 13,744,  infectious: 15,831,  died: 82,  dead: 1,839

Apr 18:  real: 16,553,  official: 14,276,  infectious: 16,553,  died: 86,  dead: 1,925

Apr 19:  real: 17,311,  official: 14,664,  infectious: 17,311,  died: 88,  dead: 2,013

Apr 20:  real: 18,097,  official: 15,125,  infectious: 18,097,  died: 84,  dead: 2,097

Apr 21:  real: 18,570,  official: 15,831,  infectious: 18,570,  died: 62,  dead: 2,159

Apr 22:  real: 18,870,  official: 16,553,  infectious: 18,870,  died: 77,  dead: 2,236

Apr 23:  real: 19,446,  official: 17,311,  infectious: 19,446,  died: 86,  dead: 2,322

Apr 24:  real: 20,207,  official: 18,097,  infectious: 20,207,  died: 89,  dead: 2,411

Apr 25:  real: 21,037,  official: 18,570,  infectious: 21,037,  died: 73,  dead: 2,484

Apr 26:  real: 21,715,  official: 18,870,  infectious: 21,715,  died: 75,  dead: 2,559

Apr 27:  real: 22,247,  official: 19,446,  infectious: 22,247,  died: 73,  dead: 2,632

Apr 28:  real: 22,545,  official: 20,207,  infectious: 22,545,  died: 82,  dead: 2,714

Apr 29:  real: 22,807,  official: 21,037,  infectious: 22,807,  died: 84,  dead: 2,798

Apr 30:  real: 23,308,  official: 21,715,  infectious: 23,308,  died: 78,  dead: 2,876

May  1:  real: 23,970,  official: 22,247,  infectious: 23,970,  died: 78,  dead: 2,954

May  2:  real: 24,722,  official: 22,545,  infectious: 24,722,  died: 73,  dead: 3,027

May  3:  real: 25,544,  official: 22,807,  infectious: 25,544,  died: 75,  dead: 3,102

May  4:  real: 26,257,  official: 23,308,  infectious: 26,257,  died: 84,  dead: 3,186

May  5:  real: 26,766,  official: 23,970,  infectious: 26,766,  died: 72,  dead: 3,258

May  6:  real: 27,044,  official: 24,722,  infectious: 27,044,  died: 73,  dead: 3,331

May  7:  real: 27,530,  official: 25,544,  infectious: 27,530,  died: 80,  dead: 3,411

May  8:  real: 28,330,  official: 26,257,  infectious: 28,330,  died: 60,  dead: 3,471

May  9:  real: 29,051,  official: 26,766,  infectious: 29,051,  died: 67,  dead: 3,538

May 10:  real: 29,737,  official: 27,044,  infectious: 29,737,  died: 74,  dead: 3,612

May 11:  real: 30,448,  official: 27,530,  infectious: 30,448,  died: 64,  dead: 3,676

May 12:  real: 30,806,  official: 28,330,  infectious: 30,806,  died: 61,  dead: 3,737

May 13:  real: 31,065,  official: 29,051,  infectious: 31,065,  died: 50,  dead: 3,787

May 14:  real: 31,522,  official: 29,737,  infectious: 31,522,  died: 46,  dead: 3,833

May 15:  real: 32,211,  official: 30,448,  infectious: 32,211,  died: 57,  dead: 3,890

May 16:  real: 33,036,  official: 30,806,  infectious: 33,036,  died: 48,  dead: 3,938

May 17:  real: 33,650,  official: 31,065,  infectious: 33,650,  died: 53,  dead: 3,991

May 18:  real: 34,179,  official: 31,522,  infectious: 34,179,  died: 61,  dead: 4,052

May 19:  real: 34,582,  official: 32,211,  infectious: 34,582,  died: 39,  dead: 4,091

May 20:  real: 34,792,  official: 33,036,  infectious: 34,792,  died: 54,  dead: 4,145

May 21:  real: 35,298,  official: 33,650,  infectious: 35,298,  died: 53,  dead: 4,198

May 22:  real: 36,055,  official: 34,179,  infectious: 36,055,  died: 55,  dead: 4,253

May 23:  real: 36,871,  official: 34,582,  infectious: 36,871,  died: 56,  dead: 4,309

May 24:  real: 37,642,  official: 34,792,  infectious: 37,642,  died: 43,  dead: 4,352

May 25:  real: 38,418,  official: 35,298,  infectious: 38,418,  died: 42,  dead: 4,394

May 26:  real: 38,850,  official: 36,055,  infectious: 38,850,  died: 28,  dead: 4,422

May 27:  real: 39,115,  official: 36,871,  infectious: 39,115,  died: 39,  dead: 4,461

May 28:  real: 39,759,  official: 37,642,  infectious: 39,759,  died: 40,  dead: 4,501

May 29:  real: 40,648,  official: 38,418,  infectious: 40,648,  died: 40,  dead: 4,541

May 30:  real: 41,718,  official: 38,850,  infectious: 41,718,  died: 39,  dead: 4,580

May 31:  real: 42,760,  official: 39,115,  infectious: 42,760,  died: 45,  dead: 4,625

Jun  1:  real: 43,906,  official: 39,759,  infectious: 43,906,  died: 40,  dead: 4,665

Jun  2:  real: 44,732,  official: 40,648,  infectious: 44,732,  died: 36,  dead: 4,701

Jun  3:  real: 45,194,  official: 41,718,  infectious: 45,194,  died: 26,  dead: 4,727

Jun  4:  real: 45,737,  official: 42,760,  infectious: 45,737,  died: 45,  dead: 4,772

Jun  5:  real: 46,670,  official: 43,906,  infectious: 46,670,  died: 38,  dead: 4,810

Jun  6:  real: 48,156,  official: 44,732,  infectious: 48,156,  died: 29,  dead: 4,839

Jun  7:  real: 49,503,  official: 45,194,  infectious: 49,503,  died: 33,  dead: 4,872

Jun  8:  real: 50,894,  official: 45,737,  infectious: 50,894,  died: 38,  dead: 4,910

Jun  9:  real: 52,007,  official: 46,670,  infectious: 52,007,  died: 34,  dead: 4,944

Jun 10:  real: 52,436,  official: 48,156,  infectious: 52,436,  died: 39,  dead: 4,983

Jun 11:  real: 53,134,  official: 49,503,  infectious: 53,134,  died: 34,  dead: 5,017

Jun 12:  real: 54,416,  official: 50,894,  infectious: 54,416,  died: 28,  dead: 5,045

Jun 13:  real: 55,918,  official: 52,007,  infectious: 55,918,  died: 33,  dead: 5,078

Jun 14:  real: 57,478,  official: 52,436,  infectious: 57,478,  died: 26,  dead: 5,104

Jun 15:  real: 58,799,  official: 53,134,  infectious: 58,799,  died: 28,  dead: 5,132

Jun 16:  real: 59,573,  official: 54,416,  infectious: 59,573,  died: 28,  dead: 5,160

Jun 17:  real: 59,895,  official: 55,918,  infectious: 59,895,  died: 30,  dead: 5,190

Jun 18:  real: 60,708,  official: 57,478,  infectious: 60,708,  died: 26,  dead: 5,216

Jun 19:  real: 62,051,  official: 58,799,  infectious: 62,051,  died: 22,  dead: 5,238

Jun 20:  real: 63,749,  official: 59,573,  infectious: 63,749,  died: 24,  dead: 5,262

Jun 21:  real: 64,977,  official: 59,895,  infectious: 64,977,  died: 16,  dead: 5,278

Jun 22:  real: 66,172,  official: 60,708,  infectious: 66,172,  died: 16,  dead: 5,294

Jun 23:  real: 67,066,  official: 62,051,  infectious: 67,066,  died: 18,  dead: 5,312

Jun 24:  real: 67,543,  official: 63,749,  infectious: 67,543,  died: 18,  dead: 5,330

Jun 25:  real: 68,287,  official: 64,977,  infectious: 68,287,  died: 8,  dead: 5,338

Jun 26:  real: 69,589,  official: 66,172,  infectious: 69,589,  died: 2,  dead: 5,340

Jun 27:  real: 69,692,  official: 67,066,  infectious: 69,692,  died: 3,  dead: 5,343

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 69,889,  official: 67,543,  infectious: 18,686,  died: 23,  dead: 5,366


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 70,076,  official: 68,287,  infectious: 17,708,  died: 17,  dead: 5,383

Jun 30:  real: 70,251,  official: 69,589,  infectious: 16,591,  died: 16,  dead: 5,399

Jul  1:  real: 70,416,  official: 69,692,  infectious: 15,633,  died: 12,  dead: 5,411

Jul  2:  real: 70,577,  official: 69,889,  infectious: 15,280,  died: 6,  dead: 5,417

Jul  3:  real: 70,732,  official: 70,076,  infectious: 14,664,  died: 52,  dead: 5,469

Jul  4:  real: 70,876,  official: 70,251,  infectious: 13,634,  died: 49,  dead: 5,518

Jul  5:  real: 71,008,  official: 70,416,  infectious: 12,485,  died: 31,  dead: 5,549

Jul  6:  real: 71,127,  official: 70,577,  infectious: 11,247,  died: 22,  dead: 5,571

Jul  7:  real: 71,234,  official: 70,732,  infectious: 10,115,  died: 12,  dead: 5,583

Jul  8:  real: 71,335,  official: 70,876,  infectious: 9,580,  died: 18,  dead: 5,601

Jul  9:  real: 71,434,  official: 71,008,  infectious: 9,366,  died: 33,  dead: 5,634

Jul 10:  real: 71,527,  official: 71,127,  infectious: 8,786,  died: 2,  dead: 5,636

Jul 11:  real: 71,609,  official: 71,234,  infectious: 7,774,  died: 10,  dead: 5,646

Jul 12:  real: 71,677,  official: 71,335,  infectious: 6,475,  died: 9,  dead: 5,655


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 13:  real: 71,735,  official: 71,434,  infectious: 5,538,  died: 8,  dead: 5,663

Jul 14:  real: 71,784,  official: 71,527,  infectious: 4,611,  died: 8,  dead: 5,671

Jul 15:  real: 71,825,  official: 71,609,  infectious: 3,917,  died: 8,  dead: 5,679

Jul 16:  real: 71,862,  official: 71,677,  infectious: 3,556,  died: 3,  dead: 5,682

Jul 17:  real: 71,893,  official: 71,735,  infectious: 2,977,  died: 0,  dead: 5,682

Jul 18:  real: 71,914,  official: 71,784,  infectious: 1,951,  died: 0,  dead: 5,682

Jul 19:  real: 71,934,  official: 71,825,  infectious: 1,878,  died: 0,  dead: 5,682

Jul 20:  real: 71,952,  official: 71,862,  infectious: 1,723,  died: 2,  dead: 5,684

Jul 21:  real: 71,969,  official: 71,893,  infectious: 1,575,  died: 3,  dead: 5,687

Jul 22:  real: 71,984,  official: 71,914,  infectious: 1,437,  died: 3,  dead: 5,690

Jul 23:  real: 71,998,  official: 71,934,  infectious: 1,309,  died: 3,  dead: 5,693

Jul 24:  real: 72,010,  official: 71,952,  infectious: 1,184,  died: 2,  dead: 5,695

Jul 25:  real: 72,021,  official: 71,969,  infectious: 1,064,  died: 2,  dead: 5,697

Jul 26:  real: 72,031,  official: 71,984,  infectious: 953,  died: 2,  dead: 5,699

Jul 27:  real: 72,040,  official: 71,998,  infectious: 851,  died: 2,  dead: 5,701

Jul 28:  real: 72,048,  official: 72,010,  infectious: 760,  died: 2,  dead: 5,703

Jul 29:  real: 72,055,  official: 72,021,  infectious: 678,  died: 1,  dead: 5,704

Jul 30:  real: 72,061,  official: 72,031,  infectious: 603,  died: 1,  dead: 5,705

Jul 31:  real: 72,067,  official: 72,040,  infectious: 528,  died: 1,  dead: 5,706

Aug  1:  real: 72,072,  official: 72,048,  infectious: 456,  died: 1,  dead: 5,707

Aug  2:  real: 72,076,  official: 72,055,  infectious: 394,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug  3:  real: 72,080,  official: 72,061,  infectious: 342,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug  4:  real: 72,083,  official: 72,067,  infectious: 297,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug  5:  real: 72,086,  official: 72,072,  infectious: 260,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug  6:  real: 72,088,  official: 72,076,  infectious: 229,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug  7:  real: 72,090,  official: 72,080,  infectious: 200,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug  8:  real: 72,092,  official: 72,083,  infectious: 175,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug  9:  real: 72,094,  official: 72,086,  infectious: 159,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 10:  real: 72,096,  official: 72,088,  infectious: 144,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 11:  real: 72,097,  official: 72,090,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 12:  real: 72,098,  official: 72,092,  infectious: 117,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 13:  real: 72,099,  official: 72,094,  infectious: 105,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 14:  real: 72,100,  official: 72,096,  infectious: 94,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 15:  real: 72,101,  official: 72,097,  infectious: 84,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 16:  real: 72,102,  official: 72,098,  infectious: 75,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 17:  real: 72,103,  official: 72,099,  infectious: 67,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 18:  real: 72,104,  official: 72,100,  infectious: 60,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 19:  real: 72,105,  official: 72,101,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 20:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,102,  infectious: 49,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 21:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,103,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 22:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,104,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 23:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,105,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 24:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 25:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 26:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 27:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 28:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 29:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 30:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Aug 31:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  1:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  2:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  3:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  4:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  5:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  6:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  7:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  8:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep  9:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 10:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 11:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 12:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 13:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 14:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 15:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 16:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 17:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 18:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 19:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 20:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 21:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 22:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 23:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 24:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 25:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 26:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 27:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 28:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 29:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Sep 30:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  1:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  2:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  3:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  4:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  5:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  6:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  7:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  8:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct  9:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 10:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 11:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 12:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 13:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 14:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 15:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 16:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 17:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 18:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 19:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 20:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 21:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 22:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 23:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 24:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 25:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 26:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 27:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 28:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 29:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 30:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Oct 31:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  1:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  2:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  3:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  4:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  5:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  6:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  7:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  8:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov  9:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 10:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 11:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 12:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 13:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 14:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 15:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 16:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 17:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 18:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 19:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 20:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 21:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 22:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 23:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 24:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 25:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 26:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 27:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 28:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 29:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Nov 30:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  1:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  2:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  3:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  4:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  5:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  6:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  7:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  8:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec  9:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 10:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 11:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 12:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 13:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 14:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 15:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 16:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 17:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 18:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 19:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 20:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 21:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 22:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 23:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 24:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 25:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 26:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 27:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 28:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 29:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 30:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

Dec 31:  real: 72,106,  official: 72,106,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,707

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       600 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         52:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
        237:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      5,470:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      5,707:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.05%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0105
Official uninf: 7,430,308 / Adult Pop.: 7,500,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.07%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0094
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.06%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0106