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COVID-19 Forecast for Australia, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
230 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Australia HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 230 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Australia run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Australia are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        108:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        108:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Australia COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.010, at 101.00% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 60,  official: 29,  infectious: 60,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  2:  real: 63,  official: 33,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  3:  real: 74,  official: 39,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  4:  real: 83,  official: 53,  infectious: 83,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar  5:  real: 93,  official: 60,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar  6:  real: 116,  official: 63,  infectious: 116,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar  7:  real: 128,  official: 74,  infectious: 128,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar  8:  real: 156,  official: 83,  infectious: 156,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar  9:  real: 199,  official: 93,  infectious: 199,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 10:  real: 248,  official: 116,  infectious: 248,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 11:  real: 300,  official: 128,  infectious: 300,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 12:  real: 401,  official: 156,  infectious: 401,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 13:  real: 455,  official: 199,  infectious: 455,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 14:  real: 596,  official: 248,  infectious: 596,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 15:  real: 756,  official: 300,  infectious: 756,  died: 2,  dead: 5

Mar 16:  real: 928,  official: 401,  infectious: 928,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 17:  real: 1,072,  official: 455,  infectious: 1,072,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 18:  real: 1,609,  official: 596,  infectious: 1,609,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Mar 19:  real: 1,887,  official: 756,  infectious: 1,887,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Mar 20:  real: 2,317,  official: 928,  infectious: 2,317,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 21:  real: 2,676,  official: 1,072,  infectious: 2,676,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 22:  real: 3,050,  official: 1,609,  infectious: 3,050,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 23:  real: 3,378,  official: 1,887,  infectious: 3,378,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 24:  real: 3,635,  official: 2,317,  infectious: 3,635,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Mar 25:  real: 4,163,  official: 2,676,  infectious: 4,163,  died: 3,  dead: 11

Mar 26:  real: 4,460,  official: 3,050,  infectious: 4,460,  died: 2,  dead: 13

Mar 27:  real: 4,763,  official: 3,378,  infectious: 4,763,  died: 0,  dead: 13

Mar 28:  real: 5,048,  official: 3,635,  infectious: 5,048,  died: 1,  dead: 14

Mar 29:  real: 5,314,  official: 4,163,  infectious: 5,314,  died: 3,  dead: 17

Mar 30:  real: 5,454,  official: 4,460,  infectious: 5,454,  died: 2,  dead: 19

Mar 31:  real: 5,550,  official: 4,763,  infectious: 5,550,  died: 1,  dead: 20

Apr  1:  real: 5,750,  official: 5,048,  infectious: 5,750,  died: 3,  dead: 23

Apr  2:  real: 5,895,  official: 5,314,  infectious: 5,895,  died: 2,  dead: 25

Apr  3:  real: 5,988,  official: 5,454,  infectious: 5,988,  died: 3,  dead: 28

Apr  4:  real: 6,052,  official: 5,550,  infectious: 6,052,  died: 2,  dead: 30

Apr  5:  real: 6,152,  official: 5,750,  infectious: 6,152,  died: 7,  dead: 37

Apr  6:  real: 6,238,  official: 5,895,  infectious: 6,238,  died: 8,  dead: 45

Apr  7:  real: 6,303,  official: 5,988,  infectious: 6,303,  died: 4,  dead: 49

Apr  8:  real: 6,313,  official: 6,052,  infectious: 6,313,  died: 1,  dead: 50

Apr  9:  real: 6,359,  official: 6,152,  infectious: 6,359,  died: 1,  dead: 51

Apr 10:  real: 6,400,  official: 6,238,  infectious: 6,400,  died: 3,  dead: 54

Apr 11:  real: 6,447,  official: 6,303,  infectious: 6,447,  died: 2,  dead: 56

Apr 12:  real: 6,468,  official: 6,313,  infectious: 6,468,  died: 3,  dead: 59

Apr 13:  real: 6,533,  official: 6,359,  infectious: 6,533,  died: 2,  dead: 61

Apr 14:  real: 6,586,  official: 6,400,  infectious: 6,586,  died: 0,  dead: 61

Apr 15:  real: 6,612,  official: 6,447,  infectious: 6,612,  died: 2,  dead: 63

Apr 16:  real: 6,625,  official: 6,468,  infectious: 6,625,  died: 0,  dead: 63

Apr 17:  real: 6,645,  official: 6,533,  infectious: 6,645,  died: 2,  dead: 65

Apr 18:  real: 6,649,  official: 6,586,  infectious: 6,649,  died: 5,  dead: 70

Apr 19:  real: 6,667,  official: 6,612,  infectious: 6,667,  died: 1,  dead: 71

Apr 20:  real: 6,675,  official: 6,625,  infectious: 6,675,  died: 0,  dead: 71

Apr 21:  real: 6,695,  official: 6,645,  infectious: 6,695,  died: 0,  dead: 71

Apr 22:  real: 6,716,  official: 6,649,  infectious: 6,716,  died: 3,  dead: 74

Apr 23:  real: 6,720,  official: 6,667,  infectious: 6,720,  died: 1,  dead: 75

Apr 24:  real: 6,738,  official: 6,675,  infectious: 6,738,  died: 4,  dead: 79

Apr 25:  real: 6,746,  official: 6,695,  infectious: 6,746,  died: 1,  dead: 80

Apr 26:  real: 6,754,  official: 6,716,  infectious: 6,754,  died: 3,  dead: 83

Apr 27:  real: 6,767,  official: 6,720,  infectious: 6,767,  died: 0,  dead: 83

Apr 28:  real: 6,781,  official: 6,738,  infectious: 6,781,  died: 5,  dead: 88

Apr 29:  real: 6,801,  official: 6,746,  infectious: 6,801,  died: 1,  dead: 89

Apr 30:  real: 6,825,  official: 6,754,  infectious: 6,825,  died: 3,  dead: 92

May  1:  real: 6,849,  official: 6,767,  infectious: 6,849,  died: 1,  dead: 93

May  2:  real: 6,875,  official: 6,781,  infectious: 6,875,  died: 0,  dead: 93

May  3:  real: 6,896,  official: 6,801,  infectious: 6,896,  died: 2,  dead: 95

May  4:  real: 6,914,  official: 6,825,  infectious: 6,914,  died: 0,  dead: 95

May  5:  real: 6,929,  official: 6,849,  infectious: 6,929,  died: 1,  dead: 96

May  6:  real: 6,941,  official: 6,875,  infectious: 6,941,  died: 1,  dead: 97

May  7:  real: 6,948,  official: 6,896,  infectious: 6,948,  died: 0,  dead: 97

May  8:  real: 6,964,  official: 6,914,  infectious: 6,964,  died: 0,  dead: 97

May  9:  real: 6,980,  official: 6,929,  infectious: 6,980,  died: 0,  dead: 97

May 10:  real: 6,989,  official: 6,941,  infectious: 6,989,  died: 0,  dead: 97

May 11:  real: 7,019,  official: 6,948,  infectious: 7,019,  died: 0,  dead: 97

May 12:  real: 7,036,  official: 6,964,  infectious: 7,036,  died: 0,  dead: 97

May 13:  real: 7,045,  official: 6,980,  infectious: 7,045,  died: 1,  dead: 98

May 14:  real: 7,060,  official: 6,989,  infectious: 7,060,  died: 0,  dead: 98

May 15:  real: 7,068,  official: 7,019,  infectious: 7,068,  died: 0,  dead: 98

May 16:  real: 7,079,  official: 7,036,  infectious: 7,079,  died: 0,  dead: 98

May 17:  real: 7,081,  official: 7,045,  infectious: 7,081,  died: 0,  dead: 98

May 18:  real: 7,095,  official: 7,060,  infectious: 7,095,  died: 1,  dead: 99

May 19:  real: 7,111,  official: 7,068,  infectious: 7,111,  died: 1,  dead: 100

May 20:  real: 7,114,  official: 7,079,  infectious: 7,114,  died: 0,  dead: 100

May 21:  real: 7,118,  official: 7,081,  infectious: 7,118,  died: 0,  dead: 100

May 22:  real: 7,133,  official: 7,095,  infectious: 7,133,  died: 1,  dead: 101

May 23:  real: 7,139,  official: 7,111,  infectious: 7,139,  died: 1,  dead: 102

May 24:  real: 7,150,  official: 7,114,  infectious: 7,150,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May 25:  real: 7,173,  official: 7,118,  infectious: 7,173,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May 26:  real: 7,185,  official: 7,133,  infectious: 7,185,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May 27:  real: 7,195,  official: 7,139,  infectious: 7,195,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May 28:  real: 7,204,  official: 7,150,  infectious: 7,204,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May 29:  real: 7,221,  official: 7,173,  infectious: 7,221,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May 30:  real: 7,229,  official: 7,185,  infectious: 7,229,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May 31:  real: 7,240,  official: 7,195,  infectious: 7,240,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  1:  real: 7,251,  official: 7,204,  infectious: 7,251,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  2:  real: 7,255,  official: 7,221,  infectious: 7,255,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  3:  real: 7,260,  official: 7,229,  infectious: 7,260,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  4:  real: 7,265,  official: 7,240,  infectious: 7,265,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  5:  real: 7,267,  official: 7,251,  infectious: 7,267,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  6:  real: 7,276,  official: 7,255,  infectious: 7,276,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  7:  real: 7,285,  official: 7,260,  infectious: 7,285,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  8:  real: 7,290,  official: 7,265,  infectious: 7,290,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun  9:  real: 7,302,  official: 7,267,  infectious: 7,302,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 10:  real: 7,320,  official: 7,276,  infectious: 7,320,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 11:  real: 7,335,  official: 7,285,  infectious: 7,335,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 12:  real: 7,347,  official: 7,290,  infectious: 7,347,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 13:  real: 7,370,  official: 7,302,  infectious: 7,370,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 14:  real: 7,391,  official: 7,320,  infectious: 7,391,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 15:  real: 7,409,  official: 7,335,  infectious: 7,409,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 16:  real: 7,436,  official: 7,347,  infectious: 7,436,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 17:  real: 7,461,  official: 7,370,  infectious: 7,461,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 18:  real: 7,474,  official: 7,391,  infectious: 7,474,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 19:  real: 7,492,  official: 7,409,  infectious: 7,492,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 20:  real: 7,521,  official: 7,436,  infectious: 7,521,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 21:  real: 7,558,  official: 7,461,  infectious: 7,558,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 22:  real: 7,595,  official: 7,474,  infectious: 7,595,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 23:  real: 7,641,  official: 7,492,  infectious: 7,641,  died: 0,  dead: 102

Jun 24:  real: 7,686,  official: 7,521,  infectious: 7,686,  died: 1,  dead: 103

Jun 25:  real: 7,767,  official: 7,558,  infectious: 7,767,  died: 1,  dead: 104

Jun 26:  real: 7,836,  official: 7,595,  infectious: 7,836,  died: 0,  dead: 104

Jun 27:  real: 7,920,  official: 7,641,  infectious: 7,920,  died: 0,  dead: 104

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 7,925,  official: 7,686,  infectious: 532,  died: 0,  dead: 104

Jun 29:  real: 7,931,  official: 7,767,  infectious: 606,  died: 0,  dead: 104

Jun 30:  real: 7,937,  official: 7,836,  infectious: 604,  died: 0,  dead: 104

Jul  1:  real: 7,943,  official: 7,920,  infectious: 595,  died: 0,  dead: 104

Jul  2:  real: 7,949,  official: 7,925,  infectious: 580,  died: 0,  dead: 104

Jul  3:  real: 7,955,  official: 7,931,  infectious: 567,  died: 1,  dead: 105

Jul  4:  real: 7,961,  official: 7,937,  infectious: 555,  died: 0,  dead: 105

Jul  5:  real: 7,966,  official: 7,943,  infectious: 533,  died: 1,  dead: 106

Jul  6:  real: 7,971,  official: 7,949,  infectious: 508,  died: 0,  dead: 106

Jul  7:  real: 7,976,  official: 7,955,  infectious: 485,  died: 0,  dead: 106

Jul  8:  real: 7,981,  official: 7,961,  infectious: 455,  died: 0,  dead: 106

Jul  9:  real: 7,985,  official: 7,966,  infectious: 438,  died: 0,  dead: 106

Jul 10:  real: 7,989,  official: 7,971,  infectious: 431,  died: 0,  dead: 106

Jul 11:  real: 7,993,  official: 7,976,  infectious: 419,  died: 0,  dead: 106

Jul 12:  real: 7,997,  official: 7,981,  infectious: 398,  died: 1,  dead: 107

Jul 13:  real: 8,001,  official: 7,985,  infectious: 370,  died: 0,  dead: 107

Jul 14:  real: 8,004,  official: 7,989,  infectious: 342,  died: 1,  dead: 108

Jul 15:  real: 8,007,  official: 7,993,  infectious: 308,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 16:  real: 8,010,  official: 7,997,  infectious: 274,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 17:  real: 8,012,  official: 8,001,  infectious: 212,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 18:  real: 8,014,  official: 8,004,  infectious: 158,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 19:  real: 8,015,  official: 8,007,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 20:  real: 8,016,  official: 8,010,  infectious: 89,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 21:  real: 8,017,  official: 8,012,  infectious: 84,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 22:  real: 8,018,  official: 8,014,  infectious: 79,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 23:  real: 8,019,  official: 8,015,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 24:  real: 8,020,  official: 8,016,  infectious: 69,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 25:  real: 8,021,  official: 8,017,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 26:  real: 8,022,  official: 8,018,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 27:  real: 8,023,  official: 8,019,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 28:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,020,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 29:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,021,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 30:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,022,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Jul 31:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,023,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  1:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  2:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  3:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  4:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  5:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  6:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  7:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  8:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug  9:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 10:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 11:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 12:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 13:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 14:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 15:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 16:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 17:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 18:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 19:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 20:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 21:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 22:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 23:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 24:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 25:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 26:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 27:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 28:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 29:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 30:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Aug 31:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  1:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  2:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  3:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  4:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  5:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  6:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  7:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  8:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep  9:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 10:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 11:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 12:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 13:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 14:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 15:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 16:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 17:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 18:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 19:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 20:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 21:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 22:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 23:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 24:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 25:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 26:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 27:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 28:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 29:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Sep 30:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  1:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  2:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  3:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  4:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  5:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  6:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  7:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  8:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct  9:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 10:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 11:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 12:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 13:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 14:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 15:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 16:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 17:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 18:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 19:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 20:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 21:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 22:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 23:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 24:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 25:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 26:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 27:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 28:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 29:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 30:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Oct 31:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  1:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  2:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  3:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  4:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  5:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  6:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  7:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  8:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov  9:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 10:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 11:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 12:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 13:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 14:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 15:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 16:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 17:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 18:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 19:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 20:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 21:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 22:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 23:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 24:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 25:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 26:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 27:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 28:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 29:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Nov 30:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  1:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  2:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  3:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  4:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  5:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  6:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  7:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  8:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec  9:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 10:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 11:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 12:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 13:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 14:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 15:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 16:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 17:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 18:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 19:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 20:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 21:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 22:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 23:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 24:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 25:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 26:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 27:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 28:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 29:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 30:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

Dec 31:  real: 8,024,  official: 8,024,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 108

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        108:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        108:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.00%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0100
Official uninf: 19,992,080 / Adult Pop.: 20,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.96%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0004
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.01%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0101