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COVID-19 Forecast for Russia, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
223 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Russia HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 223 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Russia run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Russia are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        100:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     10,960:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     10,960:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Russia COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.010, at 101.04% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 7,  official: 2,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 13,  official: 3,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 14,  official: 3,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 17,  official: 3,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 20,  official: 7,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 20,  official: 13,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 28,  official: 14,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 34,  official: 17,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 45,  official: 20,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 59,  official: 20,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 63,  official: 28,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 93,  official: 34,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 114,  official: 45,  infectious: 114,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 147,  official: 59,  infectious: 147,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 199,  official: 63,  infectious: 199,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 253,  official: 93,  infectious: 253,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 306,  official: 114,  infectious: 306,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 367,  official: 147,  infectious: 367,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 438,  official: 199,  infectious: 438,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 20:  real: 495,  official: 253,  infectious: 495,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 21:  real: 658,  official: 306,  infectious: 658,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 22:  real: 840,  official: 367,  infectious: 840,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 23:  real: 1,036,  official: 438,  infectious: 1,036,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 24:  real: 1,264,  official: 495,  infectious: 1,264,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 25:  real: 1,534,  official: 658,  infectious: 1,534,  died: 2,  dead: 3

Mar 26:  real: 1,836,  official: 840,  infectious: 1,836,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 27:  real: 2,337,  official: 1,036,  infectious: 2,337,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 28:  real: 2,777,  official: 1,264,  infectious: 2,777,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar 29:  real: 3,548,  official: 1,534,  infectious: 3,548,  died: 4,  dead: 8

Mar 30:  real: 4,149,  official: 1,836,  infectious: 4,149,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Mar 31:  real: 4,731,  official: 2,337,  infectious: 4,731,  died: 8,  dead: 17

Apr  1:  real: 5,389,  official: 2,777,  infectious: 5,389,  died: 7,  dead: 24

Apr  2:  real: 6,343,  official: 3,548,  infectious: 6,343,  died: 6,  dead: 30

Apr  3:  real: 7,497,  official: 4,149,  infectious: 7,497,  died: 4,  dead: 34

Apr  4:  real: 8,672,  official: 4,731,  infectious: 8,672,  died: 9,  dead: 43

Apr  5:  real: 10,131,  official: 5,389,  infectious: 10,131,  died: 2,  dead: 45

Apr  6:  real: 11,917,  official: 6,343,  infectious: 11,917,  died: 2,  dead: 47

Apr  7:  real: 13,584,  official: 7,497,  infectious: 13,584,  died: 11,  dead: 58

Apr  8:  real: 15,770,  official: 8,672,  infectious: 15,770,  died: 5,  dead: 63

Apr  9:  real: 18,328,  official: 10,131,  infectious: 18,328,  died: 13,  dead: 76

Apr 10:  real: 21,102,  official: 11,917,  infectious: 21,102,  died: 18,  dead: 94

Apr 11:  real: 24,490,  official: 13,584,  infectious: 24,490,  died: 12,  dead: 106

Apr 12:  real: 27,938,  official: 15,770,  infectious: 27,938,  died: 24,  dead: 130

Apr 13:  real: 32,008,  official: 18,328,  infectious: 32,008,  died: 18,  dead: 148

Apr 14:  real: 36,793,  official: 21,102,  infectious: 36,793,  died: 22,  dead: 170

Apr 15:  real: 42,853,  official: 24,490,  infectious: 42,853,  died: 28,  dead: 198

Apr 16:  real: 47,121,  official: 27,938,  infectious: 47,121,  died: 34,  dead: 232

Apr 17:  real: 52,763,  official: 32,008,  infectious: 52,763,  died: 41,  dead: 273

Apr 18:  real: 57,999,  official: 36,793,  infectious: 57,999,  died: 40,  dead: 313

Apr 19:  real: 62,773,  official: 42,853,  infectious: 62,773,  died: 48,  dead: 361

Apr 20:  real: 68,622,  official: 47,121,  infectious: 68,622,  died: 44,  dead: 405

Apr 21:  real: 74,588,  official: 52,763,  infectious: 74,588,  died: 51,  dead: 456

Apr 22:  real: 80,949,  official: 57,999,  infectious: 80,949,  died: 57,  dead: 513

Apr 23:  real: 87,147,  official: 62,773,  infectious: 87,147,  died: 42,  dead: 555

Apr 24:  real: 93,558,  official: 68,622,  infectious: 93,558,  died: 60,  dead: 615

Apr 25:  real: 99,399,  official: 74,588,  infectious: 99,399,  died: 66,  dead: 681

Apr 26:  real: 106,498,  official: 80,949,  infectious: 106,498,  died: 66,  dead: 747

Apr 27:  real: 114,431,  official: 87,147,  infectious: 114,431,  died: 47,  dead: 794

Apr 28:  real: 124,054,  official: 93,558,  infectious: 124,054,  died: 73,  dead: 867

Apr 29:  real: 134,687,  official: 99,399,  infectious: 134,687,  died: 105,  dead: 972

Apr 30:  real: 145,268,  official: 106,498,  infectious: 145,268,  died: 101,  dead: 1,073

May  1:  real: 155,370,  official: 114,431,  infectious: 155,370,  died: 96,  dead: 1,169

May  2:  real: 165,929,  official: 124,054,  infectious: 165,929,  died: 53,  dead: 1,222

May  3:  real: 177,160,  official: 134,687,  infectious: 177,160,  died: 58,  dead: 1,280

May  4:  real: 187,859,  official: 145,268,  infectious: 187,859,  died: 76,  dead: 1,356

May  5:  real: 198,676,  official: 155,370,  infectious: 198,676,  died: 95,  dead: 1,451

May  6:  real: 209,688,  official: 165,929,  infectious: 209,688,  died: 86,  dead: 1,537

May  7:  real: 221,344,  official: 177,160,  infectious: 221,344,  died: 88,  dead: 1,625

May  8:  real: 232,243,  official: 187,859,  infectious: 232,243,  died: 98,  dead: 1,723

May  9:  real: 242,271,  official: 198,676,  infectious: 242,271,  died: 104,  dead: 1,827

May 10:  real: 252,245,  official: 209,688,  infectious: 252,245,  died: 88,  dead: 1,915

May 11:  real: 262,843,  official: 221,344,  infectious: 262,843,  died: 94,  dead: 2,009

May 12:  real: 272,043,  official: 232,243,  infectious: 272,043,  died: 107,  dead: 2,116

May 13:  real: 281,752,  official: 242,271,  infectious: 281,752,  died: 96,  dead: 2,212

May 14:  real: 290,678,  official: 252,245,  infectious: 290,678,  died: 93,  dead: 2,305

May 15:  real: 299,941,  official: 262,843,  infectious: 299,941,  died: 113,  dead: 2,418

May 16:  real: 308,705,  official: 272,043,  infectious: 308,705,  died: 119,  dead: 2,537

May 17:  real: 317,554,  official: 281,752,  infectious: 317,554,  died: 94,  dead: 2,631

May 18:  real: 326,448,  official: 290,678,  infectious: 326,448,  died: 91,  dead: 2,722

May 19:  real: 335,882,  official: 299,941,  infectious: 335,882,  died: 115,  dead: 2,837

May 20:  real: 344,481,  official: 308,705,  infectious: 344,481,  died: 135,  dead: 2,972

May 21:  real: 353,427,  official: 317,554,  infectious: 353,427,  died: 127,  dead: 3,099

May 22:  real: 362,342,  official: 326,448,  infectious: 362,342,  died: 150,  dead: 3,249

May 23:  real: 370,680,  official: 335,882,  infectious: 370,680,  died: 139,  dead: 3,388

May 24:  real: 379,051,  official: 344,481,  infectious: 379,051,  died: 153,  dead: 3,541

May 25:  real: 387,623,  official: 353,427,  infectious: 387,623,  died: 92,  dead: 3,633

May 26:  real: 396,575,  official: 362,342,  infectious: 396,575,  died: 174,  dead: 3,807

May 27:  real: 405,843,  official: 370,680,  infectious: 405,843,  died: 161,  dead: 3,968

May 28:  real: 414,878,  official: 379,051,  infectious: 414,878,  died: 174,  dead: 4,142

May 29:  real: 423,741,  official: 387,623,  infectious: 423,741,  died: 232,  dead: 4,374

May 30:  real: 432,277,  official: 396,575,  infectious: 432,277,  died: 181,  dead: 4,555

May 31:  real: 441,108,  official: 405,843,  infectious: 441,108,  died: 138,  dead: 4,693

Jun  1:  real: 449,834,  official: 414,878,  infectious: 449,834,  died: 162,  dead: 4,855

Jun  2:  real: 458,689,  official: 423,741,  infectious: 458,689,  died: 182,  dead: 5,037

Jun  3:  real: 467,673,  official: 432,277,  infectious: 467,673,  died: 178,  dead: 5,215

Jun  4:  real: 476,658,  official: 441,108,  infectious: 476,658,  died: 169,  dead: 5,384

Jun  5:  real: 485,253,  official: 449,834,  infectious: 485,253,  died: 144,  dead: 5,528

Jun  6:  real: 493,657,  official: 458,689,  infectious: 493,657,  died: 197,  dead: 5,725

Jun  7:  real: 502,436,  official: 467,673,  infectious: 502,436,  died: 134,  dead: 5,859

Jun  8:  real: 511,423,  official: 476,658,  infectious: 511,423,  died: 112,  dead: 5,971

Jun  9:  real: 520,129,  official: 485,253,  infectious: 520,129,  died: 171,  dead: 6,142

Jun 10:  real: 528,964,  official: 493,657,  infectious: 528,964,  died: 216,  dead: 6,358

Jun 11:  real: 537,210,  official: 502,436,  infectious: 537,210,  died: 174,  dead: 6,532

Jun 12:  real: 545,458,  official: 511,423,  infectious: 545,458,  died: 183,  dead: 6,715

Jun 13:  real: 553,301,  official: 520,129,  infectious: 553,301,  died: 114,  dead: 6,829

Jun 14:  real: 561,091,  official: 528,964,  infectious: 561,091,  died: 119,  dead: 6,948

Jun 15:  real: 569,063,  official: 537,210,  infectious: 569,063,  died: 143,  dead: 7,091

Jun 16:  real: 576,952,  official: 545,458,  infectious: 576,952,  died: 193,  dead: 7,284

Jun 17:  real: 584,680,  official: 553,301,  infectious: 584,680,  died: 194,  dead: 7,478

Jun 18:  real: 592,280,  official: 561,091,  infectious: 592,280,  died: 182,  dead: 7,660

Jun 19:  real: 599,705,  official: 569,063,  infectious: 599,705,  died: 181,  dead: 7,841

Jun 20:  real: 606,881,  official: 576,952,  infectious: 606,881,  died: 161,  dead: 8,002

Jun 21:  real: 613,994,  official: 584,680,  infectious: 613,994,  died: 109,  dead: 8,111

Jun 22:  real: 620,794,  official: 592,280,  infectious: 620,794,  died: 95,  dead: 8,206

Jun 23:  real: 627,646,  official: 599,705,  infectious: 627,646,  died: 153,  dead: 8,359

Jun 24:  real: 634,437,  official: 606,881,  infectious: 634,437,  died: 154,  dead: 8,513

Jun 25:  real: 641,156,  official: 613,994,  infectious: 641,156,  died: 92,  dead: 8,605

Jun 26:  real: 647,849,  official: 620,794,  infectious: 647,849,  died: 176,  dead: 8,781

Jun 27:  real: 654,405,  official: 627,646,  infectious: 654,405,  died: 188,  dead: 8,969

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 655,788,  official: 634,437,  infectious: 132,881,  died: 100,  dead: 9,069

Jun 29:  real: 657,165,  official: 641,156,  infectious: 132,245,  died: 99,  dead: 9,168

Jun 30:  real: 658,468,  official: 647,849,  infectious: 125,150,  died: 95,  dead: 9,263

Jul  1:  real: 659,700,  official: 654,405,  infectious: 118,312,  died: 95,  dead: 9,358

Jul  2:  real: 660,859,  official: 655,788,  infectious: 111,314,  died: 95,  dead: 9,453

Jul  3:  real: 661,950,  official: 657,165,  infectious: 104,761,  died: 94,  dead: 9,547

Jul  4:  real: 662,971,  official: 658,468,  infectious: 98,127,  died: 93,  dead: 9,640

Jul  5:  real: 663,926,  official: 659,700,  infectious: 91,759,  died: 91,  dead: 9,731

Jul  6:  real: 664,815,  official: 660,859,  infectious: 85,375,  died: 0,  dead: 9,731

Jul  7:  real: 665,635,  official: 661,950,  infectious: 78,787,  died: 100,  dead: 9,831

Jul  8:  real: 666,388,  official: 662,971,  infectious: 72,318,  died: 99,  dead: 9,930

Jul  9:  real: 667,082,  official: 663,926,  infectious: 66,679,  died: 95,  dead: 10,025

Jul 10:  real: 667,718,  official: 664,815,  infectious: 61,079,  died: 95,  dead: 10,120

Jul 11:  real: 668,296,  official: 665,635,  infectious: 55,576,  died: 95,  dead: 10,215

Jul 12:  real: 668,819,  official: 666,388,  infectious: 50,227,  died: 94,  dead: 10,309

Jul 13:  real: 669,286,  official: 667,082,  infectious: 44,886,  died: 93,  dead: 10,402

Jul 14:  real: 669,700,  official: 667,718,  infectious: 39,754,  died: 91,  dead: 10,493

Jul 15:  real: 670,059,  official: 668,296,  infectious: 34,537,  died: 38,  dead: 10,531

Jul 16:  real: 670,364,  official: 668,819,  infectious: 29,330,  died: 38,  dead: 10,569

Jul 17:  real: 670,615,  official: 669,286,  infectious: 24,140,  died: 36,  dead: 10,605

Jul 18:  real: 670,812,  official: 669,700,  infectious: 18,929,  died: 34,  dead: 10,639

Jul 19:  real: 670,956,  official: 670,059,  infectious: 13,787,  died: 32,  dead: 10,671

Jul 20:  real: 671,089,  official: 670,364,  infectious: 12,742,  died: 30,  dead: 10,701

Jul 21:  real: 671,210,  official: 670,615,  infectious: 11,661,  died: 28,  dead: 10,729

Jul 22:  real: 671,321,  official: 670,812,  infectious: 10,639,  died: 26,  dead: 10,755

Jul 23:  real: 671,422,  official: 670,956,  infectious: 9,673,  died: 24,  dead: 10,779

Jul 24:  real: 671,513,  official: 671,089,  infectious: 8,766,  died: 22,  dead: 10,801

Jul 25:  real: 671,595,  official: 671,210,  infectious: 7,914,  died: 20,  dead: 10,821

Jul 26:  real: 671,669,  official: 671,321,  infectious: 7,120,  died: 19,  dead: 10,840

Jul 27:  real: 671,735,  official: 671,422,  infectious: 6,380,  died: 17,  dead: 10,857

Jul 28:  real: 671,794,  official: 671,513,  infectious: 5,695,  died: 15,  dead: 10,872

Jul 29:  real: 671,847,  official: 671,595,  infectious: 5,068,  died: 14,  dead: 10,886

Jul 30:  real: 671,894,  official: 671,669,  infectious: 4,497,  died: 12,  dead: 10,898

Jul 31:  real: 671,935,  official: 671,735,  infectious: 3,969,  died: 11,  dead: 10,909

Aug  1:  real: 671,971,  official: 671,794,  infectious: 3,483,  died: 9,  dead: 10,918

Aug  2:  real: 672,003,  official: 671,847,  infectious: 3,040,  died: 8,  dead: 10,926

Aug  3:  real: 672,030,  official: 671,894,  infectious: 2,637,  died: 6,  dead: 10,932

Aug  4:  real: 672,054,  official: 671,935,  infectious: 2,277,  died: 5,  dead: 10,937

Aug  5:  real: 672,074,  official: 671,971,  infectious: 1,957,  died: 3,  dead: 10,940

Aug  6:  real: 672,091,  official: 672,003,  infectious: 1,679,  died: 3,  dead: 10,943

Aug  7:  real: 672,106,  official: 672,030,  infectious: 1,442,  died: 3,  dead: 10,946

Aug  8:  real: 672,119,  official: 672,054,  infectious: 1,247,  died: 2,  dead: 10,948

Aug  9:  real: 672,130,  official: 672,074,  infectious: 1,095,  died: 2,  dead: 10,950

Aug 10:  real: 672,140,  official: 672,091,  infectious: 983,  died: 2,  dead: 10,952

Aug 11:  real: 672,149,  official: 672,106,  infectious: 879,  died: 2,  dead: 10,954

Aug 12:  real: 672,157,  official: 672,119,  infectious: 786,  died: 1,  dead: 10,955

Aug 13:  real: 672,164,  official: 672,130,  infectious: 700,  died: 1,  dead: 10,956

Aug 14:  real: 672,170,  official: 672,140,  infectious: 622,  died: 1,  dead: 10,957

Aug 15:  real: 672,176,  official: 672,149,  infectious: 551,  died: 1,  dead: 10,958

Aug 16:  real: 672,181,  official: 672,157,  infectious: 489,  died: 1,  dead: 10,959

Aug 17:  real: 672,186,  official: 672,164,  infectious: 433,  died: 1,  dead: 10,960

Aug 18:  real: 672,190,  official: 672,170,  infectious: 382,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 19:  real: 672,194,  official: 672,176,  infectious: 338,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 20:  real: 672,197,  official: 672,181,  infectious: 297,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 21:  real: 672,200,  official: 672,186,  infectious: 262,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 22:  real: 672,202,  official: 672,190,  infectious: 231,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 23:  real: 672,204,  official: 672,194,  infectious: 203,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 24:  real: 672,206,  official: 672,197,  infectious: 177,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 25:  real: 672,208,  official: 672,200,  infectious: 157,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 26:  real: 672,209,  official: 672,202,  infectious: 139,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 27:  real: 672,210,  official: 672,204,  infectious: 124,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 28:  real: 672,211,  official: 672,206,  infectious: 110,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 29:  real: 672,212,  official: 672,208,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 30:  real: 672,213,  official: 672,209,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Aug 31:  real: 672,214,  official: 672,210,  infectious: 78,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  1:  real: 672,215,  official: 672,211,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  2:  real: 672,216,  official: 672,212,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  3:  real: 672,217,  official: 672,213,  infectious: 57,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  4:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,214,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  5:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,215,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  6:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,216,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  7:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,217,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  8:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep  9:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 10:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 11:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 12:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 13:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 14:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 15:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 16:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 17:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 18:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 19:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 20:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 21:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 22:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 23:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 24:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 25:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 26:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 27:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 28:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 29:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Sep 30:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  1:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  2:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  3:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  4:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  5:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  6:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  7:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  8:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct  9:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 10:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 11:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 12:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 13:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 14:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 15:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 16:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 17:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 18:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 19:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 20:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 21:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 22:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 23:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 24:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 25:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 26:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 27:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 28:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 29:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 30:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Oct 31:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  1:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  2:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  3:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  4:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  5:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  6:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  7:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  8:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov  9:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 10:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 11:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 12:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 13:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 14:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 15:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 16:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 17:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 18:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 19:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 20:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 21:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 22:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 23:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 24:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 25:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 26:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 27:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 28:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 29:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Nov 30:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  1:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  2:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  3:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  4:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  5:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  6:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  7:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  8:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec  9:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 10:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 11:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 12:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 13:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 14:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 15:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 16:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 17:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 18:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 19:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 20:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 21:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 22:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 23:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 24:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 25:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 26:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 27:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 28:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 29:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 30:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

Dec 31:  real: 672,218,  official: 672,218,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 10,960

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        100:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     10,960:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     10,960:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.04%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0104
Official uninf: 114,345,595 / Adult Pop.: 115,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.43%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0057
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.04%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0104