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COVID-19 Forecast for Pakistan, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
137 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Pakistan HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 137 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Pakistan run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Pakistan are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     2,800 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        148:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
      1,166:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      4,693:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      5,859:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Pakistan COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.017, at 101.70% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 5,  official: 4,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 6,  official: 4,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 6,  official: 5,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 7,  official: 5,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 16,  official: 5,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 19,  official: 6,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 20,  official: 6,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 21,  official: 7,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 28,  official: 16,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 33,  official: 19,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 53,  official: 20,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 184,  official: 21,  infectious: 184,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 247,  official: 28,  infectious: 247,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 307,  official: 33,  infectious: 307,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 454,  official: 53,  infectious: 454,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 501,  official: 184,  infectious: 501,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 645,  official: 247,  infectious: 645,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 776,  official: 307,  infectious: 776,  died: 2,  dead: 2

Mar 19:  real: 875,  official: 454,  infectious: 875,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 20:  real: 972,  official: 501,  infectious: 972,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 21:  real: 1,063,  official: 645,  infectious: 1,063,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 22:  real: 1,201,  official: 776,  infectious: 1,201,  died: 2,  dead: 5

Mar 23:  real: 1,373,  official: 875,  infectious: 1,373,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Mar 24:  real: 1,495,  official: 972,  infectious: 1,495,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Mar 25:  real: 1,597,  official: 1,063,  infectious: 1,597,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Mar 26:  real: 1,717,  official: 1,201,  infectious: 1,717,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Mar 27:  real: 1,938,  official: 1,373,  infectious: 1,938,  died: 2,  dead: 11

Mar 28:  real: 2,118,  official: 1,495,  infectious: 2,118,  died: 1,  dead: 12

Mar 29:  real: 2,421,  official: 1,597,  infectious: 2,421,  died: 2,  dead: 14

Mar 30:  real: 2,686,  official: 1,717,  infectious: 2,686,  died: 7,  dead: 21

Mar 31:  real: 2,818,  official: 1,938,  infectious: 2,818,  died: 5,  dead: 26

Apr  1:  real: 3,157,  official: 2,118,  infectious: 3,157,  died: 1,  dead: 27

Apr  2:  real: 3,766,  official: 2,421,  infectious: 3,766,  died: 7,  dead: 34

Apr  3:  real: 4,035,  official: 2,686,  infectious: 4,035,  died: 6,  dead: 40

Apr  4:  real: 4,263,  official: 2,818,  infectious: 4,263,  died: 1,  dead: 41

Apr  5:  real: 4,489,  official: 3,157,  infectious: 4,489,  died: 6,  dead: 47

Apr  6:  real: 4,695,  official: 3,766,  infectious: 4,695,  died: 6,  dead: 53

Apr  7:  real: 5,011,  official: 4,035,  infectious: 5,011,  died: 4,  dead: 57

Apr  8:  real: 5,230,  official: 4,263,  infectious: 5,230,  died: 4,  dead: 61

Apr  9:  real: 5,496,  official: 4,489,  infectious: 5,496,  died: 4,  dead: 65

Apr 10:  real: 5,837,  official: 4,695,  infectious: 5,837,  died: 1,  dead: 66

Apr 11:  real: 6,383,  official: 5,011,  infectious: 6,383,  died: 20,  dead: 86

Apr 12:  real: 6,919,  official: 5,230,  infectious: 6,919,  died: 5,  dead: 91

Apr 13:  real: 7,025,  official: 5,496,  infectious: 7,025,  died: 2,  dead: 93

Apr 14:  real: 7,638,  official: 5,837,  infectious: 7,638,  died: 3,  dead: 96

Apr 15:  real: 8,348,  official: 6,383,  infectious: 8,348,  died: 15,  dead: 111

Apr 16:  real: 8,892,  official: 6,919,  infectious: 8,892,  died: 17,  dead: 128

Apr 17:  real: 9,565,  official: 7,025,  infectious: 9,565,  died: 7,  dead: 135

Apr 18:  real: 10,076,  official: 7,638,  infectious: 10,076,  died: 8,  dead: 143

Apr 19:  real: 11,057,  official: 8,348,  infectious: 11,057,  died: 25,  dead: 168

Apr 20:  real: 11,940,  official: 8,892,  infectious: 11,940,  died: 8,  dead: 176

Apr 21:  real: 12,723,  official: 9,565,  infectious: 12,723,  died: 25,  dead: 201

Apr 22:  real: 13,328,  official: 10,076,  infectious: 13,328,  died: 11,  dead: 212

Apr 23:  real: 13,915,  official: 11,057,  infectious: 13,915,  died: 23,  dead: 235

Apr 24:  real: 14,612,  official: 11,940,  infectious: 14,612,  died: 18,  dead: 253

Apr 25:  real: 15,525,  official: 12,723,  infectious: 15,525,  died: 16,  dead: 269

Apr 26:  real: 16,473,  official: 13,328,  infectious: 16,473,  died: 12,  dead: 281

Apr 27:  real: 18,092,  official: 13,915,  infectious: 18,092,  died: 11,  dead: 292

Apr 28:  real: 19,022,  official: 14,612,  infectious: 19,022,  died: 20,  dead: 312

Apr 29:  real: 20,084,  official: 15,525,  infectious: 20,084,  died: 31,  dead: 343

Apr 30:  real: 20,941,  official: 16,473,  infectious: 20,941,  died: 18,  dead: 361

May  1:  real: 22,049,  official: 18,092,  infectious: 22,049,  died: 56,  dead: 417

May  2:  real: 23,214,  official: 19,022,  infectious: 23,214,  died: 20,  dead: 437

May  3:  real: 24,644,  official: 20,084,  infectious: 24,644,  died: 20,  dead: 457

May  4:  real: 26,435,  official: 20,941,  infectious: 26,435,  died: 19,  dead: 476

May  5:  real: 28,736,  official: 22,049,  infectious: 28,736,  died: 38,  dead: 514

May  6:  real: 30,334,  official: 23,214,  infectious: 30,334,  died: 30,  dead: 544

May  7:  real: 30,941,  official: 24,644,  infectious: 30,941,  died: 41,  dead: 585

May  8:  real: 32,674,  official: 26,435,  infectious: 32,674,  died: 14,  dead: 599

May  9:  real: 35,298,  official: 28,736,  infectious: 35,298,  died: 37,  dead: 636

May 10:  real: 35,788,  official: 30,334,  infectious: 35,788,  died: 23,  dead: 659

May 11:  real: 37,218,  official: 30,941,  infectious: 37,218,  died: 8,  dead: 667

May 12:  real: 38,799,  official: 32,674,  infectious: 38,799,  died: 57,  dead: 724

May 13:  real: 40,151,  official: 35,298,  infectious: 40,151,  died: 37,  dead: 761

May 14:  real: 42,125,  official: 35,788,  infectious: 42,125,  died: 9,  dead: 770

May 15:  real: 43,966,  official: 37,218,  infectious: 43,966,  died: 33,  dead: 803

May 16:  real: 45,898,  official: 38,799,  infectious: 45,898,  died: 31,  dead: 834

May 17:  real: 48,091,  official: 40,151,  infectious: 48,091,  died: 39,  dead: 873

May 18:  real: 50,694,  official: 42,125,  infectious: 50,694,  died: 30,  dead: 903

May 19:  real: 52,437,  official: 43,966,  infectious: 52,437,  died: 36,  dead: 939

May 20:  real: 54,601,  official: 45,898,  infectious: 54,601,  died: 46,  dead: 985

May 21:  real: 56,349,  official: 48,091,  infectious: 56,349,  died: 32,  dead: 1,017

May 22:  real: 57,705,  official: 50,694,  infectious: 57,705,  died: 50,  dead: 1,067

May 23:  real: 59,151,  official: 52,437,  infectious: 59,151,  died: 34,  dead: 1,101

May 24:  real: 61,227,  official: 54,601,  infectious: 61,227,  died: 32,  dead: 1,133

May 25:  real: 64,028,  official: 56,349,  infectious: 64,028,  died: 34,  dead: 1,167

May 26:  real: 66,457,  official: 57,705,  infectious: 66,457,  died: 30,  dead: 1,197

May 27:  real: 69,496,  official: 59,151,  infectious: 69,496,  died: 28,  dead: 1,225

May 28:  real: 72,460,  official: 61,227,  infectious: 72,460,  died: 35,  dead: 1,260

May 29:  real: 76,398,  official: 64,028,  infectious: 76,398,  died: 57,  dead: 1,317

May 30:  real: 80,463,  official: 66,457,  infectious: 80,463,  died: 78,  dead: 1,395

May 31:  real: 85,264,  official: 69,496,  infectious: 85,264,  died: 88,  dead: 1,483

Jun  1:  real: 89,249,  official: 72,460,  infectious: 89,249,  died: 60,  dead: 1,543

Jun  2:  real: 93,983,  official: 76,398,  infectious: 93,983,  died: 78,  dead: 1,621

Jun  3:  real: 98,943,  official: 80,463,  infectious: 98,943,  died: 67,  dead: 1,688

Jun  4:  real: 103,671,  official: 85,264,  infectious: 103,671,  died: 82,  dead: 1,770

Jun  5:  real: 108,317,  official: 89,249,  infectious: 108,317,  died: 68,  dead: 1,838

Jun  6:  real: 113,702,  official: 93,983,  infectious: 113,702,  died: 97,  dead: 1,935

Jun  7:  real: 119,536,  official: 98,943,  infectious: 119,536,  died: 67,  dead: 2,002

Jun  8:  real: 125,933,  official: 103,671,  infectious: 125,933,  died: 65,  dead: 2,067

Jun  9:  real: 132,405,  official: 108,317,  infectious: 132,405,  died: 105,  dead: 2,172

Jun 10:  real: 139,230,  official: 113,702,  infectious: 139,230,  died: 83,  dead: 2,255

Jun 11:  real: 144,478,  official: 119,536,  infectious: 144,478,  died: 101,  dead: 2,356

Jun 12:  real: 148,921,  official: 125,933,  infectious: 148,921,  died: 107,  dead: 2,463

Jun 13:  real: 154,760,  official: 132,405,  infectious: 154,760,  died: 88,  dead: 2,551

Jun 14:  real: 160,118,  official: 139,230,  infectious: 160,118,  died: 81,  dead: 2,632

Jun 15:  real: 165,062,  official: 144,478,  infectious: 165,062,  died: 97,  dead: 2,729

Jun 16:  real: 171,666,  official: 148,921,  infectious: 171,666,  died: 110,  dead: 2,839

Jun 17:  real: 176,617,  official: 154,760,  infectious: 176,617,  died: 136,  dead: 2,975

Jun 18:  real: 181,088,  official: 160,118,  infectious: 181,088,  died: 118,  dead: 3,093

Jun 19:  real: 185,034,  official: 165,062,  infectious: 185,034,  died: 136,  dead: 3,229

Jun 20:  real: 188,926,  official: 171,666,  infectious: 188,926,  died: 153,  dead: 3,382

Jun 21:  real: 192,970,  official: 176,617,  infectious: 192,970,  died: 119,  dead: 3,501

Jun 22:  real: 195,745,  official: 181,088,  infectious: 195,745,  died: 89,  dead: 3,590

Jun 23:  real: 198,883,  official: 185,034,  infectious: 198,883,  died: 105,  dead: 3,695

Jun 24:  real: 202,955,  official: 188,926,  infectious: 202,955,  died: 60,  dead: 3,755

Jun 25:  real: 206,512,  official: 192,970,  infectious: 206,512,  died: 148,  dead: 3,903

Jun 26:  real: 209,337,  official: 195,745,  infectious: 209,337,  died: 59,  dead: 3,962

Jun 27:  real: 213,470,  official: 198,883,  infectious: 213,470,  died: 73,  dead: 4,035

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 214,852,  official: 202,955,  infectious: 81,355,  died: 54,  dead: 4,089


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 216,223,  official: 206,512,  infectious: 80,714,  died: 56,  dead: 4,145

Jun 30:  real: 217,521,  official: 209,337,  infectious: 76,391,  died: 38,  dead: 4,183

Jul  1:  real: 218,744,  official: 213,470,  infectious: 72,005,  died: 44,  dead: 4,227

Jul  2:  real: 219,886,  official: 214,852,  infectious: 67,240,  died: 56,  dead: 4,283

Jul  3:  real: 220,969,  official: 216,223,  infectious: 63,750,  died: 148,  dead: 4,431

Jul  4:  real: 222,001,  official: 217,521,  infectious: 60,767,  died: 142,  dead: 4,573

Jul  5:  real: 222,961,  official: 218,744,  infectious: 56,501,  died: 127,  dead: 4,700

Jul  6:  real: 223,855,  official: 219,886,  infectious: 52,636,  died: 80,  dead: 4,780

Jul  7:  real: 224,689,  official: 220,969,  infectious: 49,117,  died: 103,  dead: 4,883

Jul  8:  real: 225,437,  official: 222,001,  infectious: 44,021,  died: 90,  dead: 4,973

Jul  9:  real: 226,127,  official: 222,961,  infectious: 40,616,  died: 72,  dead: 5,045

Jul 10:  real: 226,764,  official: 223,855,  infectious: 37,478,  died: 105,  dead: 5,150

Jul 11:  real: 227,354,  official: 224,689,  infectious: 34,746,  died: 70,  dead: 5,220

Jul 12:  real: 227,898,  official: 225,437,  infectious: 32,017,  died: 69,  dead: 5,289

Jul 13:  real: 228,393,  official: 226,127,  infectious: 29,135,  died: 66,  dead: 5,355

Jul 14:  real: 228,856,  official: 226,764,  infectious: 27,234,  died: 62,  dead: 5,417


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 15:  real: 229,280,  official: 227,354,  infectious: 24,971,  died: 58,  dead: 5,475

Jul 16:  real: 229,652,  official: 227,898,  infectious: 21,931,  died: 55,  dead: 5,530

Jul 17:  real: 229,979,  official: 228,393,  infectious: 19,280,  died: 52,  dead: 5,582

Jul 18:  real: 230,271,  official: 228,856,  infectious: 17,217,  died: 12,  dead: 5,594

Jul 19:  real: 230,510,  official: 229,280,  infectious: 14,090,  died: 0,  dead: 5,594

Jul 20:  real: 230,733,  official: 229,652,  infectious: 13,141,  died: 0,  dead: 5,594

Jul 21:  real: 230,939,  official: 229,979,  infectious: 12,158,  died: 0,  dead: 5,594

Jul 22:  real: 231,130,  official: 230,271,  infectious: 11,228,  died: 19,  dead: 5,613

Jul 23:  real: 231,306,  official: 230,510,  infectious: 10,349,  died: 24,  dead: 5,637

Jul 24:  real: 231,468,  official: 230,733,  infectious: 9,530,  died: 23,  dead: 5,660

Jul 25:  real: 231,617,  official: 230,939,  infectious: 8,750,  died: 20,  dead: 5,680

Jul 26:  real: 231,753,  official: 231,130,  infectious: 8,004,  died: 19,  dead: 5,699

Jul 27:  real: 231,877,  official: 231,306,  infectious: 7,313,  died: 17,  dead: 5,716

Jul 28:  real: 231,990,  official: 231,468,  infectious: 6,671,  died: 16,  dead: 5,732

Jul 29:  real: 232,093,  official: 231,617,  infectious: 6,072,  died: 14,  dead: 5,746

Jul 30:  real: 232,187,  official: 231,753,  infectious: 5,540,  died: 13,  dead: 5,759

Jul 31:  real: 232,273,  official: 231,877,  infectious: 5,047,  died: 12,  dead: 5,771

Aug  1:  real: 232,351,  official: 231,990,  infectious: 4,591,  died: 11,  dead: 5,782

Aug  2:  real: 232,422,  official: 232,093,  infectious: 4,168,  died: 9,  dead: 5,791

Aug  3:  real: 232,486,  official: 232,187,  infectious: 3,776,  died: 8,  dead: 5,799

Aug  4:  real: 232,544,  official: 232,273,  infectious: 3,419,  died: 7,  dead: 5,806

Aug  5:  real: 232,596,  official: 232,351,  infectious: 3,083,  died: 6,  dead: 5,812

Aug  6:  real: 232,643,  official: 232,422,  infectious: 2,775,  died: 6,  dead: 5,818

Aug  7:  real: 232,686,  official: 232,486,  infectious: 2,505,  died: 5,  dead: 5,823

Aug  8:  real: 232,725,  official: 232,544,  infectious: 2,268,  died: 4,  dead: 5,827

Aug  9:  real: 232,760,  official: 232,596,  infectious: 2,057,  died: 4,  dead: 5,831

Aug 10:  real: 232,792,  official: 232,643,  infectious: 1,886,  died: 4,  dead: 5,835

Aug 11:  real: 232,821,  official: 232,686,  infectious: 1,727,  died: 3,  dead: 5,838

Aug 12:  real: 232,848,  official: 232,725,  infectious: 1,579,  died: 3,  dead: 5,841

Aug 13:  real: 232,872,  official: 232,760,  infectious: 1,441,  died: 3,  dead: 5,844

Aug 14:  real: 232,894,  official: 232,792,  infectious: 1,315,  died: 2,  dead: 5,846

Aug 15:  real: 232,914,  official: 232,821,  infectious: 1,199,  died: 2,  dead: 5,848

Aug 16:  real: 232,933,  official: 232,848,  infectious: 1,092,  died: 2,  dead: 5,850

Aug 17:  real: 232,950,  official: 232,872,  infectious: 993,  died: 2,  dead: 5,852

Aug 18:  real: 232,965,  official: 232,894,  infectious: 905,  died: 1,  dead: 5,853

Aug 19:  real: 232,979,  official: 232,914,  infectious: 824,  died: 1,  dead: 5,854

Aug 20:  real: 232,992,  official: 232,933,  infectious: 750,  died: 1,  dead: 5,855

Aug 21:  real: 233,004,  official: 232,950,  infectious: 683,  died: 1,  dead: 5,856

Aug 22:  real: 233,015,  official: 232,965,  infectious: 621,  died: 1,  dead: 5,857

Aug 23:  real: 233,025,  official: 232,979,  infectious: 564,  died: 1,  dead: 5,858

Aug 24:  real: 233,034,  official: 232,992,  infectious: 513,  died: 1,  dead: 5,859

Aug 25:  real: 233,042,  official: 233,004,  infectious: 467,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Aug 26:  real: 233,049,  official: 233,015,  infectious: 426,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Aug 27:  real: 233,056,  official: 233,025,  infectious: 389,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Aug 28:  real: 233,062,  official: 233,034,  infectious: 356,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Aug 29:  real: 233,068,  official: 233,042,  infectious: 326,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Aug 30:  real: 233,073,  official: 233,049,  infectious: 297,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Aug 31:  real: 233,078,  official: 233,056,  infectious: 273,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  1:  real: 233,082,  official: 233,062,  infectious: 250,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  2:  real: 233,086,  official: 233,068,  infectious: 230,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  3:  real: 233,090,  official: 233,073,  infectious: 211,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  4:  real: 233,093,  official: 233,078,  infectious: 194,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  5:  real: 233,096,  official: 233,082,  infectious: 179,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  6:  real: 233,099,  official: 233,086,  infectious: 164,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  7:  real: 233,102,  official: 233,090,  infectious: 149,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  8:  real: 233,104,  official: 233,093,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep  9:  real: 233,106,  official: 233,096,  infectious: 127,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 10:  real: 233,108,  official: 233,099,  infectious: 117,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 11:  real: 233,110,  official: 233,102,  infectious: 107,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 12:  real: 233,112,  official: 233,104,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 13:  real: 233,114,  official: 233,106,  infectious: 90,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 14:  real: 233,115,  official: 233,108,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 15:  real: 233,116,  official: 233,110,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 16:  real: 233,117,  official: 233,112,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 17:  real: 233,118,  official: 233,114,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 18:  real: 233,119,  official: 233,115,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 19:  real: 233,120,  official: 233,116,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 20:  real: 233,121,  official: 233,117,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 21:  real: 233,122,  official: 233,118,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 22:  real: 233,123,  official: 233,119,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 23:  real: 233,124,  official: 233,120,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 24:  real: 233,125,  official: 233,121,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 25:  real: 233,126,  official: 233,122,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 26:  real: 233,127,  official: 233,123,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 27:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,124,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 28:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,125,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 29:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,126,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Sep 30:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,127,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  1:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  2:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  3:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  4:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  5:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  6:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  7:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  8:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct  9:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 10:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 11:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 12:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 13:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 14:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 15:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 16:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 17:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 18:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 19:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 20:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 21:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 22:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 23:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 24:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 25:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 26:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 27:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 28:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 29:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 30:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Oct 31:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  1:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  2:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  3:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  4:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  5:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  6:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  7:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  8:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov  9:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 10:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 11:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 12:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 13:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 14:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 15:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 16:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 17:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 18:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 19:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 20:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 21:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 22:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 23:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 24:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 25:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 26:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 27:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 28:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 29:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Nov 30:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  1:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  2:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  3:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  4:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  5:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  6:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  7:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  8:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec  9:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 10:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 11:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 12:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 13:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 14:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 15:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 16:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 17:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 18:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 19:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 20:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 21:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 22:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 23:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 24:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 25:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 26:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 27:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 28:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 29:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 30:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

Dec 31:  real: 233,128,  official: 233,128,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 5,859

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     2,800 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        148:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
      1,166:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      4,693:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      5,859:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.70%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0170
Official uninf: 129,786,530 / Adult Pop.: 130,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.84%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0016
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.70%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0170