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COVID-19 Forecast for D.R.Congo, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
163 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL D.R.Congo HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 163 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in D.R.Congo run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in D.R.Congo are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF        10 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
         35:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        163:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        198:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
D.R.Congo COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.014, at 101.42% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 2,  official: 0,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 2,  official: 1,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 2,  official: 1,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 3,  official: 1,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 3,  official: 2,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 7,  official: 2,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 14,  official: 2,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 18,  official: 3,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 23,  official: 3,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 30,  official: 7,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 36,  official: 14,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 45,  official: 18,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 48,  official: 23,  infectious: 48,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 22:  real: 51,  official: 30,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 23:  real: 51,  official: 36,  infectious: 51,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 24:  real: 65,  official: 45,  infectious: 65,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 25:  real: 81,  official: 48,  infectious: 81,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 26:  real: 81,  official: 51,  infectious: 81,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 27:  real: 98,  official: 51,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 28:  real: 109,  official: 65,  infectious: 109,  died: 3,  dead: 6

Mar 29:  real: 134,  official: 81,  infectious: 134,  died: 2,  dead: 8

Mar 30:  real: 148,  official: 81,  infectious: 148,  died: 0,  dead: 8

Mar 31:  real: 154,  official: 98,  infectious: 154,  died: 0,  dead: 8

Apr  1:  real: 154,  official: 109,  infectious: 154,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Apr  2:  real: 161,  official: 134,  infectious: 161,  died: 4,  dead: 13

Apr  3:  real: 180,  official: 148,  infectious: 180,  died: 3,  dead: 16

Apr  4:  real: 180,  official: 154,  infectious: 180,  died: 2,  dead: 18

Apr  5:  real: 180,  official: 154,  infectious: 180,  died: 0,  dead: 18

Apr  6:  real: 223,  official: 161,  infectious: 223,  died: 0,  dead: 18

Apr  7:  real: 223,  official: 180,  infectious: 223,  died: 0,  dead: 18

Apr  8:  real: 234,  official: 180,  infectious: 234,  died: 0,  dead: 18

Apr  9:  real: 235,  official: 180,  infectious: 235,  died: 0,  dead: 18

Apr 10:  real: 241,  official: 223,  infectious: 241,  died: 2,  dead: 20

Apr 11:  real: 254,  official: 223,  infectious: 254,  died: 0,  dead: 20

Apr 12:  real: 267,  official: 234,  infectious: 267,  died: 0,  dead: 20

Apr 13:  real: 287,  official: 235,  infectious: 287,  died: 0,  dead: 20

Apr 14:  real: 307,  official: 241,  infectious: 307,  died: 0,  dead: 20

Apr 15:  real: 327,  official: 254,  infectious: 327,  died: 1,  dead: 21

Apr 16:  real: 332,  official: 267,  infectious: 332,  died: 1,  dead: 22

Apr 17:  real: 350,  official: 287,  infectious: 350,  died: 1,  dead: 23

Apr 18:  real: 359,  official: 307,  infectious: 359,  died: 2,  dead: 25

Apr 19:  real: 377,  official: 327,  infectious: 377,  died: 0,  dead: 25

Apr 20:  real: 394,  official: 332,  infectious: 394,  died: 0,  dead: 25

Apr 21:  real: 416,  official: 350,  infectious: 416,  died: 0,  dead: 25

Apr 22:  real: 442,  official: 359,  infectious: 442,  died: 0,  dead: 25

Apr 23:  real: 459,  official: 377,  infectious: 459,  died: 0,  dead: 25

Apr 24:  real: 471,  official: 394,  infectious: 471,  died: 0,  dead: 25

Apr 25:  real: 491,  official: 416,  infectious: 491,  died: 3,  dead: 28

Apr 26:  real: 572,  official: 442,  infectious: 572,  died: 0,  dead: 28

Apr 27:  real: 604,  official: 459,  infectious: 604,  died: 0,  dead: 28

Apr 28:  real: 674,  official: 471,  infectious: 674,  died: 2,  dead: 30

Apr 29:  real: 674,  official: 491,  infectious: 674,  died: 0,  dead: 30

Apr 30:  real: 682,  official: 572,  infectious: 682,  died: 1,  dead: 31

May  1:  real: 705,  official: 604,  infectious: 705,  died: 1,  dead: 32

May  2:  real: 797,  official: 674,  infectious: 797,  died: 1,  dead: 33

May  3:  real: 863,  official: 674,  infectious: 863,  died: 0,  dead: 33

May  4:  real: 863,  official: 682,  infectious: 863,  died: 1,  dead: 34

May  5:  real: 937,  official: 705,  infectious: 937,  died: 0,  dead: 34

May  6:  real: 991,  official: 797,  infectious: 991,  died: 1,  dead: 35

May  7:  real: 1,024,  official: 863,  infectious: 1,024,  died: 1,  dead: 36

May  8:  real: 1,102,  official: 863,  infectious: 1,102,  died: 0,  dead: 36

May  9:  real: 1,169,  official: 937,  infectious: 1,169,  died: 3,  dead: 39

May 10:  real: 1,242,  official: 991,  infectious: 1,242,  died: 2,  dead: 41

May 11:  real: 1,298,  official: 1,024,  infectious: 1,298,  died: 0,  dead: 41

May 12:  real: 1,455,  official: 1,102,  infectious: 1,455,  died: 3,  dead: 44

May 13:  real: 1,455,  official: 1,169,  infectious: 1,455,  died: 6,  dead: 50

May 14:  real: 1,538,  official: 1,242,  infectious: 1,538,  died: 0,  dead: 50

May 15:  real: 1,629,  official: 1,298,  infectious: 1,629,  died: 0,  dead: 50

May 16:  real: 1,731,  official: 1,455,  infectious: 1,731,  died: 11,  dead: 61

May 17:  real: 1,835,  official: 1,455,  infectious: 1,835,  died: 0,  dead: 61

May 18:  real: 1,945,  official: 1,538,  infectious: 1,945,  died: 0,  dead: 61

May 19:  real: 2,025,  official: 1,629,  infectious: 2,025,  died: 0,  dead: 61

May 20:  real: 2,141,  official: 1,731,  infectious: 2,141,  died: 0,  dead: 61

May 21:  real: 2,297,  official: 1,835,  infectious: 2,297,  died: 0,  dead: 61

May 22:  real: 2,403,  official: 1,945,  infectious: 2,403,  died: 2,  dead: 63

May 23:  real: 2,546,  official: 2,025,  infectious: 2,546,  died: 0,  dead: 63

May 24:  real: 2,660,  official: 2,141,  infectious: 2,660,  died: 0,  dead: 63

May 25:  real: 2,833,  official: 2,297,  infectious: 2,833,  died: 4,  dead: 67

May 26:  real: 2,966,  official: 2,403,  infectious: 2,966,  died: 1,  dead: 68

May 27:  real: 3,070,  official: 2,546,  infectious: 3,070,  died: 0,  dead: 68

May 28:  real: 3,195,  official: 2,660,  infectious: 3,195,  died: 1,  dead: 69

May 29:  real: 3,326,  official: 2,833,  infectious: 3,326,  died: 0,  dead: 69

May 30:  real: 3,495,  official: 2,966,  infectious: 3,495,  died: 0,  dead: 69

May 31:  real: 3,644,  official: 3,070,  infectious: 3,644,  died: 3,  dead: 72

Jun  1:  real: 3,764,  official: 3,195,  infectious: 3,764,  died: 0,  dead: 72

Jun  2:  real: 3,878,  official: 3,326,  infectious: 3,878,  died: 0,  dead: 72

Jun  3:  real: 4,016,  official: 3,495,  infectious: 4,016,  died: 3,  dead: 75

Jun  4:  real: 4,106,  official: 3,644,  infectious: 4,106,  died: 3,  dead: 78

Jun  5:  real: 4,259,  official: 3,764,  infectious: 4,259,  died: 3,  dead: 81

Jun  6:  real: 4,390,  official: 3,878,  infectious: 4,390,  died: 1,  dead: 82

Jun  7:  real: 4,515,  official: 4,016,  infectious: 4,515,  died: 3,  dead: 85

Jun  8:  real: 4,637,  official: 4,106,  infectious: 4,637,  died: 3,  dead: 88

Jun  9:  real: 4,724,  official: 4,259,  infectious: 4,724,  died: 2,  dead: 90

Jun 10:  real: 4,778,  official: 4,390,  infectious: 4,778,  died: 6,  dead: 96

Jun 11:  real: 4,837,  official: 4,515,  infectious: 4,837,  died: 2,  dead: 98

Jun 12:  real: 4,974,  official: 4,637,  infectious: 4,974,  died: 3,  dead: 101

Jun 13:  real: 5,100,  official: 4,724,  infectious: 5,100,  died: 5,  dead: 106

Jun 14:  real: 5,283,  official: 4,778,  infectious: 5,283,  died: 1,  dead: 107

Jun 15:  real: 5,477,  official: 4,837,  infectious: 5,477,  died: 5,  dead: 112

Jun 16:  real: 5,672,  official: 4,974,  infectious: 5,672,  died: 0,  dead: 112

Jun 17:  real: 5,826,  official: 5,100,  infectious: 5,826,  died: 3,  dead: 115

Jun 18:  real: 5,924,  official: 5,283,  infectious: 5,924,  died: 2,  dead: 117

Jun 19:  real: 6,027,  official: 5,477,  infectious: 6,027,  died: 5,  dead: 122

Jun 20:  real: 6,213,  official: 5,672,  infectious: 6,213,  died: 3,  dead: 125

Jun 21:  real: 6,411,  official: 5,826,  infectious: 6,411,  died: 5,  dead: 130

Jun 22:  real: 6,552,  official: 5,924,  infectious: 6,552,  died: 5,  dead: 135

Jun 23:  real: 6,690,  official: 6,027,  infectious: 6,690,  died: 0,  dead: 135

Jun 24:  real: 6,827,  official: 6,213,  infectious: 6,827,  died: 7,  dead: 142

Jun 25:  real: 6,939,  official: 6,411,  infectious: 6,939,  died: 0,  dead: 142

Jun 26:  real: 7,039,  official: 6,552,  infectious: 7,039,  died: 7,  dead: 149

Jun 27:  real: 7,122,  official: 6,690,  infectious: 7,122,  died: 4,  dead: 153

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 7,155,  official: 6,827,  infectious: 2,335,  died: 2,  dead: 155


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 7,188,  official: 6,939,  infectious: 2,315,  died: 2,  dead: 157

Jun 30:  real: 7,220,  official: 7,039,  infectious: 2,235,  died: 1,  dead: 158

Jul  1:  real: 7,251,  official: 7,122,  infectious: 2,170,  died: 1,  dead: 159

Jul  2:  real: 7,281,  official: 7,155,  infectious: 2,129,  died: 1,  dead: 160

Jul  3:  real: 7,311,  official: 7,188,  infectious: 2,086,  died: 5,  dead: 165

Jul  4:  real: 7,339,  official: 7,220,  infectious: 1,980,  died: 6,  dead: 171

Jul  5:  real: 7,366,  official: 7,251,  infectious: 1,885,  died: 4,  dead: 175

Jul  6:  real: 7,391,  official: 7,281,  infectious: 1,746,  died: 3,  dead: 178

Jul  7:  real: 7,414,  official: 7,311,  infectious: 1,598,  died: 3,  dead: 181

Jul  8:  real: 7,435,  official: 7,339,  infectious: 1,451,  died: 2,  dead: 183

Jul  9:  real: 7,454,  official: 7,366,  infectious: 1,342,  died: 2,  dead: 185

Jul 10:  real: 7,472,  official: 7,391,  infectious: 1,277,  died: 2,  dead: 187

Jul 11:  real: 7,489,  official: 7,414,  infectious: 1,207,  died: 1,  dead: 188

Jul 12:  real: 7,504,  official: 7,435,  infectious: 1,069,  died: 1,  dead: 189

Jul 13:  real: 7,517,  official: 7,454,  infectious: 922,  died: 1,  dead: 190

Jul 14:  real: 7,529,  official: 7,472,  infectious: 818,  died: 1,  dead: 191

Jul 15:  real: 7,539,  official: 7,489,  infectious: 714,  died: 1,  dead: 192

Jul 16:  real: 7,548,  official: 7,504,  infectious: 610,  died: 1,  dead: 193

Jul 17:  real: 7,555,  official: 7,517,  infectious: 524,  died: 1,  dead: 194


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 18:  real: 7,561,  official: 7,529,  infectious: 447,  died: 1,  dead: 195

Jul 19:  real: 7,566,  official: 7,539,  infectious: 383,  died: 1,  dead: 196

Jul 20:  real: 7,571,  official: 7,548,  infectious: 358,  died: 1,  dead: 197

Jul 21:  real: 7,576,  official: 7,555,  infectious: 332,  died: 1,  dead: 198

Jul 22:  real: 7,580,  official: 7,561,  infectious: 308,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 23:  real: 7,584,  official: 7,566,  infectious: 285,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 24:  real: 7,588,  official: 7,571,  infectious: 263,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 25:  real: 7,591,  official: 7,576,  infectious: 241,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 26:  real: 7,594,  official: 7,580,  infectious: 221,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 27:  real: 7,597,  official: 7,584,  infectious: 201,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 28:  real: 7,600,  official: 7,588,  infectious: 182,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 29:  real: 7,602,  official: 7,591,  infectious: 166,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 30:  real: 7,604,  official: 7,594,  infectious: 152,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Jul 31:  real: 7,606,  official: 7,597,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  1:  real: 7,608,  official: 7,600,  infectious: 123,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  2:  real: 7,610,  official: 7,602,  infectious: 110,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  3:  real: 7,611,  official: 7,604,  infectious: 99,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  4:  real: 7,612,  official: 7,606,  infectious: 89,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  5:  real: 7,613,  official: 7,608,  infectious: 79,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  6:  real: 7,614,  official: 7,610,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  7:  real: 7,615,  official: 7,611,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  8:  real: 7,616,  official: 7,612,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug  9:  real: 7,617,  official: 7,613,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 10:  real: 7,618,  official: 7,614,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 11:  real: 7,619,  official: 7,615,  infectious: 46,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 12:  real: 7,620,  official: 7,616,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 13:  real: 7,621,  official: 7,617,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 14:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,618,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 15:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,619,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 16:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,620,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 17:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,621,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 18:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 19:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 20:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 21:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 22:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 23:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 24:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 25:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 26:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 27:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 28:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 29:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 30:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Aug 31:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  1:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  2:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  3:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  4:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  5:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  6:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  7:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  8:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep  9:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 10:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 11:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 12:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 13:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 14:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 15:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 16:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 17:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 18:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 19:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 20:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 21:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 22:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 23:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 24:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 25:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 26:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 27:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 28:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 29:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Sep 30:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  1:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  2:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  3:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  4:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  5:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  6:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  7:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  8:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct  9:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 10:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 11:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 12:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 13:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 14:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 15:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 16:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 17:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 18:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 19:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 20:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 21:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 22:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 23:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 24:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 25:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 26:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 27:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 28:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 29:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 30:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Oct 31:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  1:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  2:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  3:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  4:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  5:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  6:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  7:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  8:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov  9:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 10:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 11:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 12:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 13:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 14:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 15:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 16:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 17:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 18:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 19:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 20:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 21:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 22:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 23:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 24:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 25:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 26:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 27:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 28:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 29:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Nov 30:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  1:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  2:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  3:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  4:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  5:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  6:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  7:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  8:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec  9:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 10:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 11:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 12:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 13:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 14:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 15:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 16:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 17:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 18:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 19:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 20:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 21:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 22:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 23:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 24:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 25:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 26:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 27:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 28:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 29:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 30:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

Dec 31:  real: 7,622,  official: 7,622,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 198

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF        10 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
         35:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        163:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        198:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.42%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0142
Official uninf: 53,992,878 / Adult Pop.: 54,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.99%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0001
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.42%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0142