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COVID-19 Forecast for Ireland, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
4628 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Ireland HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 4628 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Ireland run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Ireland are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,734:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,734:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Ireland COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.000, at 100.05% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 13,  official: 1,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 18,  official: 1,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 19,  official: 2,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 21,  official: 6,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 24,  official: 13,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 34,  official: 18,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 43,  official: 19,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 70,  official: 21,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 90,  official: 24,  infectious: 90,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 129,  official: 34,  infectious: 129,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 170,  official: 43,  infectious: 170,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 12:  real: 223,  official: 70,  infectious: 223,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 292,  official: 90,  infectious: 292,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 14:  real: 366,  official: 129,  infectious: 366,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 15:  real: 557,  official: 170,  infectious: 557,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 16:  real: 683,  official: 223,  infectious: 683,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 17:  real: 785,  official: 292,  infectious: 785,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 18:  real: 906,  official: 366,  infectious: 906,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 19:  real: 1,125,  official: 557,  infectious: 1,125,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 20:  real: 1,329,  official: 683,  infectious: 1,329,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 21:  real: 1,564,  official: 785,  infectious: 1,564,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 22:  real: 1,819,  official: 906,  infectious: 1,819,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 23:  real: 2,121,  official: 1,125,  infectious: 2,121,  died: 2,  dead: 6

Mar 24:  real: 2,415,  official: 1,329,  infectious: 2,415,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Mar 25:  real: 2,615,  official: 1,564,  infectious: 2,615,  died: 2,  dead: 9

Mar 26:  real: 2,910,  official: 1,819,  infectious: 2,910,  died: 10,  dead: 19

Mar 27:  real: 3,235,  official: 2,121,  infectious: 3,235,  died: 3,  dead: 22

Mar 28:  real: 3,447,  official: 2,415,  infectious: 3,447,  died: 14,  dead: 36

Mar 29:  real: 3,849,  official: 2,615,  infectious: 3,849,  died: 10,  dead: 46

Mar 30:  real: 4,273,  official: 2,910,  infectious: 4,273,  died: 8,  dead: 54

Mar 31:  real: 4,604,  official: 3,235,  infectious: 4,604,  died: 17,  dead: 71

Apr  1:  real: 4,994,  official: 3,447,  infectious: 4,994,  died: 14,  dead: 85

Apr  2:  real: 5,364,  official: 3,849,  infectious: 5,364,  died: 13,  dead: 98

Apr  3:  real: 5,709,  official: 4,273,  infectious: 5,709,  died: 22,  dead: 120

Apr  4:  real: 6,074,  official: 4,604,  infectious: 6,074,  died: 17,  dead: 137

Apr  5:  real: 6,574,  official: 4,994,  infectious: 6,574,  died: 21,  dead: 158

Apr  6:  real: 8,089,  official: 5,364,  infectious: 8,089,  died: 16,  dead: 174

Apr  7:  real: 8,928,  official: 5,709,  infectious: 8,928,  died: 36,  dead: 210

Apr  8:  real: 9,655,  official: 6,074,  infectious: 9,655,  died: 25,  dead: 235

Apr  9:  real: 10,647,  official: 6,574,  infectious: 10,647,  died: 28,  dead: 263

Apr 10:  real: 11,479,  official: 8,089,  infectious: 11,479,  died: 24,  dead: 287

Apr 11:  real: 12,547,  official: 8,928,  infectious: 12,547,  died: 33,  dead: 320

Apr 12:  real: 13,271,  official: 9,655,  infectious: 13,271,  died: 14,  dead: 334

Apr 13:  real: 13,980,  official: 10,647,  infectious: 13,980,  died: 31,  dead: 365

Apr 14:  real: 14,758,  official: 11,479,  infectious: 14,758,  died: 41,  dead: 406

Apr 15:  real: 15,251,  official: 12,547,  infectious: 15,251,  died: 38,  dead: 444

Apr 16:  real: 15,652,  official: 13,271,  infectious: 15,652,  died: 42,  dead: 486

Apr 17:  real: 16,040,  official: 13,980,  infectious: 16,040,  died: 44,  dead: 530

Apr 18:  real: 16,671,  official: 14,758,  infectious: 16,671,  died: 41,  dead: 571

Apr 19:  real: 17,607,  official: 15,251,  infectious: 17,607,  died: 39,  dead: 610

Apr 20:  real: 18,184,  official: 15,652,  infectious: 18,184,  died: 77,  dead: 687

Apr 21:  real: 18,561,  official: 16,040,  infectious: 18,561,  died: 43,  dead: 730

Apr 22:  real: 19,262,  official: 16,671,  infectious: 19,262,  died: 39,  dead: 769

Apr 23:  real: 19,648,  official: 17,607,  infectious: 19,648,  died: 25,  dead: 794

Apr 24:  real: 19,877,  official: 18,184,  infectious: 19,877,  died: 220,  dead: 1,014

Apr 25:  real: 20,253,  official: 18,561,  infectious: 20,253,  died: 49,  dead: 1,063

Apr 26:  real: 20,612,  official: 19,262,  infectious: 20,612,  died: 24,  dead: 1,087

Apr 27:  real: 20,833,  official: 19,648,  infectious: 20,833,  died: 15,  dead: 1,102

Apr 28:  real: 21,176,  official: 19,877,  infectious: 21,176,  died: 57,  dead: 1,159

Apr 29:  real: 21,506,  official: 20,253,  infectious: 21,506,  died: 31,  dead: 1,190

Apr 30:  real: 21,772,  official: 20,612,  infectious: 21,772,  died: 42,  dead: 1,232

May  1:  real: 21,983,  official: 20,833,  infectious: 21,983,  died: 33,  dead: 1,265

May  2:  real: 22,248,  official: 21,176,  infectious: 22,248,  died: 21,  dead: 1,286

May  3:  real: 22,385,  official: 21,506,  infectious: 22,385,  died: 17,  dead: 1,303

May  4:  real: 22,541,  official: 21,772,  infectious: 22,541,  died: 16,  dead: 1,319

May  5:  real: 22,760,  official: 21,983,  infectious: 22,760,  died: 20,  dead: 1,339

May  6:  real: 22,996,  official: 22,248,  infectious: 22,996,  died: 36,  dead: 1,375

May  7:  real: 23,135,  official: 22,385,  infectious: 23,135,  died: 28,  dead: 1,403

May  8:  real: 23,242,  official: 22,541,  infectious: 23,242,  died: 26,  dead: 1,429

May  9:  real: 23,401,  official: 22,760,  infectious: 23,401,  died: 17,  dead: 1,446

May 10:  real: 23,827,  official: 22,996,  infectious: 23,827,  died: 12,  dead: 1,458

May 11:  real: 23,956,  official: 23,135,  infectious: 23,956,  died: 9,  dead: 1,467

May 12:  real: 24,048,  official: 23,242,  infectious: 24,048,  died: 21,  dead: 1,488

May 13:  real: 24,112,  official: 23,401,  infectious: 24,112,  died: 9,  dead: 1,497

May 14:  real: 24,200,  official: 23,827,  infectious: 24,200,  died: 9,  dead: 1,506

May 15:  real: 24,251,  official: 23,956,  infectious: 24,251,  died: 12,  dead: 1,518

May 16:  real: 24,315,  official: 24,048,  infectious: 24,315,  died: 15,  dead: 1,533

May 17:  real: 24,391,  official: 24,112,  infectious: 24,391,  died: 10,  dead: 1,543

May 18:  real: 24,506,  official: 24,200,  infectious: 24,506,  died: 4,  dead: 1,547

May 19:  real: 24,582,  official: 24,251,  infectious: 24,582,  died: 14,  dead: 1,561

May 20:  real: 24,639,  official: 24,315,  infectious: 24,639,  died: 10,  dead: 1,571

May 21:  real: 24,698,  official: 24,391,  infectious: 24,698,  died: 12,  dead: 1,583

May 22:  real: 24,735,  official: 24,506,  infectious: 24,735,  died: 9,  dead: 1,592

May 23:  real: 24,803,  official: 24,582,  infectious: 24,803,  died: 12,  dead: 1,604

May 24:  real: 24,841,  official: 24,639,  infectious: 24,841,  died: 4,  dead: 1,608

May 25:  real: 24,876,  official: 24,698,  infectious: 24,876,  died: -2,  dead: 1,606

May 26:  real: 24,929,  official: 24,735,  infectious: 24,929,  died: 9,  dead: 1,615

May 27:  real: 24,990,  official: 24,803,  infectious: 24,990,  died: 16,  dead: 1,631

May 28:  real: 25,062,  official: 24,841,  infectious: 25,062,  died: 8,  dead: 1,639

May 29:  real: 25,066,  official: 24,876,  infectious: 25,066,  died: 6,  dead: 1,645

May 30:  real: 25,111,  official: 24,929,  infectious: 25,111,  died: 6,  dead: 1,651

May 31:  real: 25,142,  official: 24,990,  infectious: 25,142,  died: -1,  dead: 1,650

Jun  1:  real: 25,163,  official: 25,062,  infectious: 25,163,  died: 0,  dead: 1,650

Jun  2:  real: 25,183,  official: 25,066,  infectious: 25,183,  died: 8,  dead: 1,658

Jun  3:  real: 25,201,  official: 25,111,  infectious: 25,201,  died: 1,  dead: 1,659

Jun  4:  real: 25,207,  official: 25,142,  infectious: 25,207,  died: 5,  dead: 1,664

Jun  5:  real: 25,215,  official: 25,163,  infectious: 25,215,  died: 6,  dead: 1,670

Jun  6:  real: 25,231,  official: 25,183,  infectious: 25,231,  died: 8,  dead: 1,678

Jun  7:  real: 25,238,  official: 25,201,  infectious: 25,238,  died: 1,  dead: 1,679

Jun  8:  real: 25,250,  official: 25,207,  infectious: 25,250,  died: 4,  dead: 1,683

Jun  9:  real: 25,295,  official: 25,215,  infectious: 25,295,  died: 8,  dead: 1,691

Jun 10:  real: 25,303,  official: 25,231,  infectious: 25,303,  died: 4,  dead: 1,695

Jun 11:  real: 25,321,  official: 25,238,  infectious: 25,321,  died: 8,  dead: 1,703

Jun 12:  real: 25,334,  official: 25,250,  infectious: 25,334,  died: 2,  dead: 1,705

Jun 13:  real: 25,341,  official: 25,295,  infectious: 25,341,  died: 0,  dead: 1,705

Jun 14:  real: 25,355,  official: 25,303,  infectious: 25,355,  died: 1,  dead: 1,706

Jun 15:  real: 25,368,  official: 25,321,  infectious: 25,368,  died: 0,  dead: 1,706

Jun 16:  real: 25,374,  official: 25,334,  infectious: 25,374,  died: 3,  dead: 1,709

Jun 17:  real: 25,379,  official: 25,341,  infectious: 25,379,  died: 1,  dead: 1,710

Jun 18:  real: 25,383,  official: 25,355,  infectious: 25,383,  died: 4,  dead: 1,714

Jun 19:  real: 25,391,  official: 25,368,  infectious: 25,391,  died: 0,  dead: 1,714

Jun 20:  real: 25,396,  official: 25,374,  infectious: 25,396,  died: 1,  dead: 1,715

Jun 21:  real: 25,405,  official: 25,379,  infectious: 25,405,  died: 0,  dead: 1,715

Jun 22:  real: 25,414,  official: 25,383,  infectious: 25,414,  died: 2,  dead: 1,717

Jun 23:  real: 25,437,  official: 25,391,  infectious: 25,437,  died: 3,  dead: 1,720

Jun 24:  real: 25,439,  official: 25,396,  infectious: 25,439,  died: 6,  dead: 1,726

Jun 25:  real: 25,462,  official: 25,405,  infectious: 25,462,  died: 1,  dead: 1,727

Jun 26:  real: 25,473,  official: 25,414,  infectious: 25,473,  died: 3,  dead: 1,730

Jun 27:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,437,  infectious: 25,477,  died: 4,  dead: 1,734

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,439,  infectious: 224,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jun 29:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,462,  infectious: 222,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jun 30:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,473,  infectious: 210,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  1:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 173,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  2:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 165,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  3:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 148,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  4:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 133,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  5:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 127,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  6:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 112,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  7:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 99,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  8:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul  9:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 10:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 84,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 11:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 12:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 72,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 13:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 14:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 15:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 16:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 17:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 18:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 19:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 20:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 21:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 22:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 23:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 24:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 25:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 26:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 27:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 28:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 29:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 30:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Jul 31:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  1:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  2:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  3:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  4:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  5:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  6:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  7:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  8:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug  9:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 10:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 11:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 12:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 13:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 14:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 15:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 16:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 17:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 18:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 19:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 20:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 21:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 22:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 23:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 24:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 25:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 26:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 27:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 28:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 29:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 30:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Aug 31:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  1:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  2:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  3:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  4:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  5:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  6:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  7:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  8:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep  9:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 10:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 11:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 12:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 13:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 14:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 15:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 16:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 17:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 18:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 19:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 20:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 21:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 22:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 23:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 24:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 25:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 26:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 27:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 28:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 29:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Sep 30:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  1:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  2:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  3:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  4:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  5:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  6:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  7:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  8:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct  9:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 10:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 11:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 12:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 13:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 14:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 15:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 16:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 17:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 18:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 19:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 20:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 21:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 22:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 23:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 24:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 25:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 26:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 27:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 28:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 29:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 30:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Oct 31:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  1:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  2:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  3:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  4:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  5:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  6:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  7:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  8:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov  9:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 10:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 11:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 12:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 13:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 14:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 15:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 16:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 17:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 18:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 19:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 20:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 21:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 22:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 23:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 24:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 25:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 26:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 27:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 28:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 29:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Nov 30:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  1:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  2:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  3:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  4:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  5:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  6:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  7:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  8:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec  9:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 10:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 11:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 12:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 13:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 14:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 15:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 16:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 17:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 18:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 19:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 20:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 21:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 22:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 23:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 24:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 25:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 26:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 27:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 28:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 29:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 30:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

Dec 31:  real: 25,477,  official: 25,477,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,734

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,734:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,734:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.05%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0005
Official uninf: 3,974,523 / Adult Pop.: 4,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.36%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0064
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.05%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0005