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COVID-19 Forecast for Nigeria, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
92 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Nigeria HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 92 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Nigeria run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Nigeria are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       150 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         28:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
        318:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        643:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        961:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Nigeria COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.025, at 102.54% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 1,  official: 1,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 1,  official: 1,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 1,  official: 1,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 1,  official: 1,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 2,  official: 1,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 2,  official: 1,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 2,  official: 1,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 2,  official: 1,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 2,  official: 2,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 2,  official: 2,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 2,  official: 2,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 2,  official: 2,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 3,  official: 2,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 8,  official: 2,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 12,  official: 2,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 12,  official: 2,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 22,  official: 3,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 30,  official: 8,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 40,  official: 12,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 44,  official: 12,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 51,  official: 22,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 65,  official: 30,  infectious: 65,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 23:  real: 70,  official: 40,  infectious: 70,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 24:  real: 97,  official: 44,  infectious: 97,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 25:  real: 111,  official: 51,  infectious: 111,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 26:  real: 131,  official: 65,  infectious: 131,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 27:  real: 135,  official: 70,  infectious: 135,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 28:  real: 174,  official: 97,  infectious: 174,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 29:  real: 184,  official: 111,  infectious: 184,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 30:  real: 210,  official: 131,  infectious: 210,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 31:  real: 214,  official: 135,  infectious: 214,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  1:  real: 232,  official: 174,  infectious: 232,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  2:  real: 238,  official: 184,  infectious: 238,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  3:  real: 254,  official: 210,  infectious: 254,  died: 2,  dead: 4

Apr  4:  real: 276,  official: 214,  infectious: 276,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Apr  5:  real: 288,  official: 232,  infectious: 288,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Apr  6:  real: 305,  official: 238,  infectious: 305,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Apr  7:  real: 318,  official: 254,  infectious: 318,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Apr  8:  real: 323,  official: 276,  infectious: 323,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Apr  9:  real: 343,  official: 288,  infectious: 343,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Apr 10:  real: 373,  official: 305,  infectious: 373,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr 11:  real: 407,  official: 318,  infectious: 407,  died: 3,  dead: 10

Apr 12:  real: 442,  official: 323,  infectious: 442,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 13:  real: 493,  official: 343,  infectious: 493,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 14:  real: 542,  official: 373,  infectious: 542,  died: 1,  dead: 11

Apr 15:  real: 627,  official: 407,  infectious: 627,  died: 1,  dead: 12

Apr 16:  real: 665,  official: 442,  infectious: 665,  died: 1,  dead: 13

Apr 17:  real: 782,  official: 493,  infectious: 782,  died: 4,  dead: 17

Apr 18:  real: 873,  official: 542,  infectious: 873,  died: 2,  dead: 19

Apr 19:  real: 981,  official: 627,  infectious: 981,  died: 2,  dead: 21

Apr 20:  real: 1,095,  official: 665,  infectious: 1,095,  died: 1,  dead: 22

Apr 21:  real: 1,182,  official: 782,  infectious: 1,182,  died: 3,  dead: 25

Apr 22:  real: 1,273,  official: 873,  infectious: 1,273,  died: 3,  dead: 28

Apr 23:  real: 1,337,  official: 981,  infectious: 1,337,  died: 3,  dead: 31

Apr 24:  real: 1,532,  official: 1,095,  infectious: 1,532,  died: 1,  dead: 32

Apr 25:  real: 1,728,  official: 1,182,  infectious: 1,728,  died: 3,  dead: 35

Apr 26:  real: 1,932,  official: 1,273,  infectious: 1,932,  died: 5,  dead: 40

Apr 27:  real: 2,170,  official: 1,337,  infectious: 2,170,  died: 0,  dead: 40

Apr 28:  real: 2,388,  official: 1,532,  infectious: 2,388,  died: 4,  dead: 44

Apr 29:  real: 2,558,  official: 1,728,  infectious: 2,558,  died: 7,  dead: 51

Apr 30:  real: 2,802,  official: 1,932,  infectious: 2,802,  died: 7,  dead: 58

May  1:  real: 2,950,  official: 2,170,  infectious: 2,950,  died: 10,  dead: 68

May  2:  real: 3,145,  official: 2,388,  infectious: 3,145,  died: 17,  dead: 85

May  3:  real: 3,526,  official: 2,558,  infectious: 3,526,  died: 2,  dead: 87

May  4:  real: 3,912,  official: 2,802,  infectious: 3,912,  died: 6,  dead: 93

May  5:  real: 4,151,  official: 2,950,  infectious: 4,151,  died: 5,  dead: 98

May  6:  real: 4,399,  official: 3,145,  infectious: 4,399,  died: 5,  dead: 103

May  7:  real: 4,641,  official: 3,526,  infectious: 4,641,  died: 4,  dead: 107

May  8:  real: 4,787,  official: 3,912,  infectious: 4,787,  died: 10,  dead: 117

May  9:  real: 4,971,  official: 4,151,  infectious: 4,971,  died: 11,  dead: 128

May 10:  real: 5,162,  official: 4,399,  infectious: 5,162,  died: 15,  dead: 143

May 11:  real: 5,445,  official: 4,641,  infectious: 5,445,  died: 7,  dead: 150

May 12:  real: 5,621,  official: 4,787,  infectious: 5,621,  died: 8,  dead: 158

May 13:  real: 5,959,  official: 4,971,  infectious: 5,959,  died: 6,  dead: 164

May 14:  real: 6,175,  official: 5,162,  infectious: 6,175,  died: 3,  dead: 167

May 15:  real: 6,401,  official: 5,445,  infectious: 6,401,  died: 4,  dead: 171

May 16:  real: 6,677,  official: 5,621,  infectious: 6,677,  died: 5,  dead: 176

May 17:  real: 7,016,  official: 5,959,  infectious: 7,016,  died: 6,  dead: 182

May 18:  real: 7,261,  official: 6,175,  infectious: 7,261,  died: 9,  dead: 191

May 19:  real: 7,526,  official: 6,401,  infectious: 7,526,  died: 1,  dead: 192

May 20:  real: 7,839,  official: 6,677,  infectious: 7,839,  died: 8,  dead: 200

May 21:  real: 8,068,  official: 7,016,  infectious: 8,068,  died: 11,  dead: 211

May 22:  real: 8,344,  official: 7,261,  infectious: 8,344,  died: 10,  dead: 221

May 23:  real: 8,733,  official: 7,526,  infectious: 8,733,  died: 0,  dead: 221

May 24:  real: 8,915,  official: 7,839,  infectious: 8,915,  died: 5,  dead: 226

May 25:  real: 9,302,  official: 8,068,  infectious: 9,302,  died: 7,  dead: 233

May 26:  real: 9,855,  official: 8,344,  infectious: 9,855,  died: 16,  dead: 249

May 27:  real: 10,162,  official: 8,733,  infectious: 10,162,  died: 5,  dead: 254

May 28:  real: 10,578,  official: 8,915,  infectious: 10,578,  died: 5,  dead: 259

May 29:  real: 10,819,  official: 9,302,  infectious: 10,819,  died: 2,  dead: 261

May 30:  real: 11,166,  official: 9,855,  infectious: 11,166,  died: 12,  dead: 273

May 31:  real: 11,516,  official: 10,162,  infectious: 11,516,  died: 14,  dead: 287

Jun  1:  real: 11,844,  official: 10,578,  infectious: 11,844,  died: 12,  dead: 299

Jun  2:  real: 12,233,  official: 10,819,  infectious: 12,233,  died: 15,  dead: 314

Jun  3:  real: 12,486,  official: 11,166,  infectious: 12,486,  died: 1,  dead: 315

Jun  4:  real: 12,801,  official: 11,516,  infectious: 12,801,  died: 8,  dead: 323

Jun  5:  real: 13,464,  official: 11,844,  infectious: 13,464,  died: 10,  dead: 333

Jun  6:  real: 13,873,  official: 12,233,  infectious: 13,873,  died: 9,  dead: 342

Jun  7:  real: 14,554,  official: 12,486,  infectious: 14,554,  died: 12,  dead: 354

Jun  8:  real: 15,181,  official: 12,801,  infectious: 15,181,  died: 7,  dead: 361

Jun  9:  real: 15,682,  official: 13,464,  infectious: 15,682,  died: 4,  dead: 365

Jun 10:  real: 16,085,  official: 13,873,  infectious: 16,085,  died: 17,  dead: 382

Jun 11:  real: 16,658,  official: 14,554,  infectious: 16,658,  died: 5,  dead: 387

Jun 12:  real: 17,148,  official: 15,181,  infectious: 17,148,  died: 12,  dead: 399

Jun 13:  real: 17,735,  official: 15,682,  infectious: 17,735,  died: 8,  dead: 407

Jun 14:  real: 18,480,  official: 16,085,  infectious: 18,480,  died: 13,  dead: 420

Jun 15:  real: 19,147,  official: 16,658,  infectious: 19,147,  died: 4,  dead: 424

Jun 16:  real: 19,808,  official: 17,148,  infectious: 19,808,  died: 31,  dead: 455

Jun 17:  real: 20,244,  official: 17,735,  infectious: 20,244,  died: 14,  dead: 469

Jun 18:  real: 20,919,  official: 18,480,  infectious: 20,919,  died: 6,  dead: 475

Jun 19:  real: 21,371,  official: 19,147,  infectious: 21,371,  died: 12,  dead: 487

Jun 20:  real: 22,020,  official: 19,808,  infectious: 22,020,  died: 19,  dead: 506

Jun 21:  real: 22,614,  official: 20,244,  infectious: 22,614,  died: 12,  dead: 518

Jun 22:  real: 23,298,  official: 20,919,  infectious: 23,298,  died: 7,  dead: 525

Jun 23:  real: 24,077,  official: 21,371,  infectious: 24,077,  died: 8,  dead: 533

Jun 24:  real: 24,567,  official: 22,020,  infectious: 24,567,  died: 9,  dead: 542

Jun 25:  real: 25,133,  official: 22,614,  infectious: 25,133,  died: 7,  dead: 549

Jun 26:  real: 25,694,  official: 23,298,  infectious: 25,694,  died: 5,  dead: 554

Jun 27:  real: 26,484,  official: 24,077,  infectious: 26,484,  died: 4,  dead: 558

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 26,745,  official: 24,567,  infectious: 10,301,  died: 8,  dead: 566


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 27,012,  official: 25,133,  infectious: 10,525,  died: 8,  dead: 574

Jun 30:  real: 27,271,  official: 25,694,  infectious: 10,215,  died: 9,  dead: 583

Jul  1:  real: 27,524,  official: 26,484,  infectious: 9,983,  died: 10,  dead: 593

Jul  2:  real: 27,773,  official: 26,745,  infectious: 9,831,  died: 6,  dead: 599

Jul  3:  real: 28,014,  official: 27,012,  infectious: 9,507,  died: 23,  dead: 622

Jul  4:  real: 28,248,  official: 27,271,  infectious: 9,232,  died: 22,  dead: 644

Jul  5:  real: 28,474,  official: 27,524,  infectious: 8,911,  died: 28,  dead: 672

Jul  6:  real: 28,688,  official: 27,773,  infectious: 8,444,  died: 19,  dead: 691

Jul  7:  real: 28,892,  official: 28,014,  infectious: 8,041,  died: 12,  dead: 703

Jul  8:  real: 29,085,  official: 28,248,  infectious: 7,593,  died: 14,  dead: 717

Jul  9:  real: 29,273,  official: 28,474,  infectious: 7,395,  died: 14,  dead: 731

Jul 10:  real: 29,450,  official: 28,688,  infectious: 6,988,  died: 20,  dead: 751

Jul 11:  real: 29,622,  official: 28,892,  infectious: 6,762,  died: 13,  dead: 764

Jul 12:  real: 29,784,  official: 29,085,  infectious: 6,368,  died: 13,  dead: 777

Jul 13:  real: 29,937,  official: 29,273,  infectious: 6,014,  died: 13,  dead: 790

Jul 14:  real: 30,079,  official: 29,450,  infectious: 5,580,  died: 12,  dead: 802

Jul 15:  real: 30,207,  official: 29,622,  infectious: 5,062,  died: 12,  dead: 814

Jul 16:  real: 30,328,  official: 29,784,  infectious: 4,766,  died: 12,  dead: 826

Jul 17:  real: 30,440,  official: 29,937,  infectious: 4,398,  died: 11,  dead: 837

Jul 18:  real: 30,542,  official: 30,079,  infectious: 4,028,  died: 11,  dead: 848

Jul 19:  real: 30,630,  official: 30,207,  infectious: 3,469,  died: 10,  dead: 858

Jul 20:  real: 30,714,  official: 30,328,  infectious: 3,323,  died: 10,  dead: 868

Jul 21:  real: 30,794,  official: 30,440,  infectious: 3,161,  died: 9,  dead: 877

Jul 22:  real: 30,870,  official: 30,542,  infectious: 3,003,  died: 9,  dead: 886

Jul 23:  real: 30,942,  official: 30,630,  infectious: 2,846,  died: 9,  dead: 895

Jul 24:  real: 31,010,  official: 30,714,  infectious: 2,692,  died: 8,  dead: 903

Jul 25:  real: 31,074,  official: 30,794,  infectious: 2,541,  died: 8,  dead: 911

Jul 26:  real: 31,135,  official: 30,870,  infectious: 2,394,  died: 7,  dead: 918


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 27:  real: 31,192,  official: 30,942,  infectious: 2,251,  died: 7,  dead: 925

Jul 28:  real: 31,246,  official: 31,010,  infectious: 2,112,  died: 6,  dead: 931

Jul 29:  real: 31,296,  official: 31,074,  infectious: 1,980,  died: 6,  dead: 937

Jul 30:  real: 31,343,  official: 31,135,  infectious: 1,856,  died: 5,  dead: 942

Jul 31:  real: 31,387,  official: 31,192,  infectious: 1,739,  died: 0,  dead: 942

Aug  1:  real: 31,428,  official: 31,246,  infectious: 1,630,  died: 0,  dead: 942

Aug  2:  real: 31,467,  official: 31,296,  infectious: 1,521,  died: 0,  dead: 942

Aug  3:  real: 31,503,  official: 31,343,  infectious: 1,419,  died: 0,  dead: 942

Aug  4:  real: 31,537,  official: 31,387,  infectious: 1,321,  died: 2,  dead: 944

Aug  5:  real: 31,568,  official: 31,428,  infectious: 1,231,  died: 2,  dead: 946

Aug  6:  real: 31,597,  official: 31,467,  infectious: 1,151,  died: 2,  dead: 948

Aug  7:  real: 31,624,  official: 31,503,  infectious: 1,075,  died: 2,  dead: 950

Aug  8:  real: 31,649,  official: 31,537,  infectious: 1,003,  died: 1,  dead: 951

Aug  9:  real: 31,673,  official: 31,568,  infectious: 939,  died: 1,  dead: 952

Aug 10:  real: 31,695,  official: 31,597,  infectious: 884,  died: 1,  dead: 953

Aug 11:  real: 31,716,  official: 31,624,  infectious: 832,  died: 1,  dead: 954

Aug 12:  real: 31,736,  official: 31,649,  infectious: 782,  died: 1,  dead: 955

Aug 13:  real: 31,755,  official: 31,673,  infectious: 735,  died: 1,  dead: 956

Aug 14:  real: 31,772,  official: 31,695,  infectious: 690,  died: 1,  dead: 957

Aug 15:  real: 31,788,  official: 31,716,  infectious: 648,  died: 1,  dead: 958

Aug 16:  real: 31,803,  official: 31,736,  infectious: 608,  died: 1,  dead: 959

Aug 17:  real: 31,817,  official: 31,755,  infectious: 570,  died: 1,  dead: 960

Aug 18:  real: 31,831,  official: 31,772,  infectious: 533,  died: 1,  dead: 961

Aug 19:  real: 31,844,  official: 31,788,  infectious: 499,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 20:  real: 31,856,  official: 31,803,  infectious: 468,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 21:  real: 31,867,  official: 31,817,  infectious: 439,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 22:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,831,  infectious: 411,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 23:  real: 31,887,  official: 31,844,  infectious: 387,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 24:  real: 31,896,  official: 31,856,  infectious: 362,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 25:  real: 31,905,  official: 31,867,  infectious: 340,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 26:  real: 31,913,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 319,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 27:  real: 31,921,  official: 31,887,  infectious: 300,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 28:  real: 31,928,  official: 31,896,  infectious: 282,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 29:  real: 31,935,  official: 31,905,  infectious: 266,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 30:  real: 31,941,  official: 31,913,  infectious: 251,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Aug 31:  real: 31,947,  official: 31,921,  infectious: 237,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  1:  real: 31,953,  official: 31,928,  infectious: 224,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  2:  real: 31,958,  official: 31,935,  infectious: 212,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  3:  real: 31,963,  official: 31,941,  infectious: 200,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  4:  real: 31,968,  official: 31,947,  infectious: 187,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  5:  real: 31,972,  official: 31,953,  infectious: 176,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  6:  real: 31,976,  official: 31,958,  infectious: 166,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  7:  real: 31,980,  official: 31,963,  infectious: 156,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  8:  real: 31,984,  official: 31,968,  infectious: 147,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep  9:  real: 31,987,  official: 31,972,  infectious: 138,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 10:  real: 31,990,  official: 31,976,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 11:  real: 31,993,  official: 31,980,  infectious: 122,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 12:  real: 31,996,  official: 31,984,  infectious: 115,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 13:  real: 31,999,  official: 31,987,  infectious: 109,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 14:  real: 32,002,  official: 31,990,  infectious: 103,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 15:  real: 32,004,  official: 31,993,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 16:  real: 32,006,  official: 31,996,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 17:  real: 32,008,  official: 31,999,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 18:  real: 32,010,  official: 32,002,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 19:  real: 32,012,  official: 32,004,  infectious: 79,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 20:  real: 32,014,  official: 32,006,  infectious: 75,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 21:  real: 32,016,  official: 32,008,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 22:  real: 32,018,  official: 32,010,  infectious: 67,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 23:  real: 32,020,  official: 32,012,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 24:  real: 32,022,  official: 32,014,  infectious: 60,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 25:  real: 32,023,  official: 32,016,  infectious: 57,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 26:  real: 32,024,  official: 32,018,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 27:  real: 32,025,  official: 32,020,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 28:  real: 32,026,  official: 32,022,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 29:  real: 32,027,  official: 32,023,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Sep 30:  real: 32,028,  official: 32,024,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  1:  real: 32,029,  official: 32,025,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  2:  real: 32,030,  official: 32,026,  infectious: 38,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  3:  real: 32,031,  official: 32,027,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  4:  real: 32,032,  official: 32,028,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  5:  real: 32,033,  official: 32,029,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  6:  real: 32,034,  official: 32,030,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  7:  real: 32,035,  official: 32,031,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  8:  real: 32,036,  official: 32,032,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct  9:  real: 32,037,  official: 32,033,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 10:  real: 32,038,  official: 32,034,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 11:  real: 32,039,  official: 32,035,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 12:  real: 32,040,  official: 32,036,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 13:  real: 32,041,  official: 32,037,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 14:  real: 32,042,  official: 32,038,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 15:  real: 32,043,  official: 32,039,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 16:  real: 32,044,  official: 32,040,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 17:  real: 32,045,  official: 32,041,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 18:  real: 32,046,  official: 32,042,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 19:  real: 32,047,  official: 32,043,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 20:  real: 32,048,  official: 32,044,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 21:  real: 32,049,  official: 32,045,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 22:  real: 32,050,  official: 32,046,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 23:  real: 32,051,  official: 32,047,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 24:  real: 32,052,  official: 32,048,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 25:  real: 32,053,  official: 32,049,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 26:  real: 32,054,  official: 32,050,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 27:  real: 32,055,  official: 32,051,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 28:  real: 32,056,  official: 32,052,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 29:  real: 32,057,  official: 32,053,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 30:  real: 32,058,  official: 32,054,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Oct 31:  real: 32,059,  official: 32,055,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  1:  real: 32,060,  official: 32,056,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  2:  real: 32,061,  official: 32,057,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  3:  real: 32,062,  official: 32,058,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  4:  real: 32,063,  official: 32,059,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  5:  real: 32,064,  official: 32,060,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  6:  real: 32,065,  official: 32,061,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  7:  real: 32,066,  official: 32,062,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  8:  real: 32,067,  official: 32,063,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov  9:  real: 32,068,  official: 32,064,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 10:  real: 32,069,  official: 32,065,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 11:  real: 32,070,  official: 32,066,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 12:  real: 32,071,  official: 32,067,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 13:  real: 32,072,  official: 32,068,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 14:  real: 32,073,  official: 32,069,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 15:  real: 32,074,  official: 32,070,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 16:  real: 32,075,  official: 32,071,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 17:  real: 32,076,  official: 32,072,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 18:  real: 32,077,  official: 32,073,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 19:  real: 32,078,  official: 32,074,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 20:  real: 32,079,  official: 32,075,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 21:  real: 32,080,  official: 32,076,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 22:  real: 32,081,  official: 32,077,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 23:  real: 32,082,  official: 32,078,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 24:  real: 32,083,  official: 32,079,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 25:  real: 32,084,  official: 32,080,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 26:  real: 32,085,  official: 32,081,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 27:  real: 32,086,  official: 32,082,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 28:  real: 32,087,  official: 32,083,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 29:  real: 32,088,  official: 32,084,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Nov 30:  real: 32,089,  official: 32,085,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  1:  real: 32,090,  official: 32,086,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  2:  real: 32,091,  official: 32,087,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  3:  real: 32,092,  official: 32,088,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  4:  real: 32,093,  official: 32,089,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  5:  real: 32,094,  official: 32,090,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  6:  real: 32,095,  official: 32,091,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  7:  real: 32,096,  official: 32,092,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  8:  real: 32,097,  official: 32,093,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec  9:  real: 32,098,  official: 32,094,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 10:  real: 32,099,  official: 32,095,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 11:  real: 32,100,  official: 32,096,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 12:  real: 32,101,  official: 32,097,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 13:  real: 32,102,  official: 32,098,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 14:  real: 32,103,  official: 32,099,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 15:  real: 32,104,  official: 32,100,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 16:  real: 32,105,  official: 32,101,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 17:  real: 32,106,  official: 32,102,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 18:  real: 32,107,  official: 32,103,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 19:  real: 32,108,  official: 32,104,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 20:  real: 32,109,  official: 32,105,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 21:  real: 32,110,  official: 32,106,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 22:  real: 32,111,  official: 32,107,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 23:  real: 32,112,  official: 32,108,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 24:  real: 32,113,  official: 32,109,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 25:  real: 32,114,  official: 32,110,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 26:  real: 32,115,  official: 32,111,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 27:  real: 32,116,  official: 32,112,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 28:  real: 32,117,  official: 32,113,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 29:  real: 32,118,  official: 32,114,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 30:  real: 32,119,  official: 32,115,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

Dec 31:  real: 32,120,  official: 32,116,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 961

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       150 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         28:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
        318:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        643:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        961:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.54%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0254
Official uninf: 129,973,516 / Adult Pop.: 130,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.98%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0002
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.54%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0254