Please Donate

World Countries' Leaderboard

COVID-19 Forecast for Iran, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
207 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Iran HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 207 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Iran run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Iran are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         36:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     11,085:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     11,085:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Iran COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.011, at 101.12% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 3,513,  official: 978,  infectious: 3,513,  died: 54,  dead: 54

Mar  2:  real: 4,747,  official: 1,501,  infectious: 4,747,  died: 12,  dead: 66

Mar  3:  real: 5,823,  official: 2,336,  infectious: 5,823,  died: 11,  dead: 77

Mar  4:  real: 6,566,  official: 2,922,  infectious: 6,566,  died: 15,  dead: 92

Mar  5:  real: 7,161,  official: 3,513,  infectious: 7,161,  died: 16,  dead: 108

Mar  6:  real: 8,042,  official: 4,747,  infectious: 8,042,  died: 16,  dead: 124

Mar  7:  real: 9,000,  official: 5,823,  infectious: 9,000,  died: 21,  dead: 145

Mar  8:  real: 10,075,  official: 6,566,  infectious: 10,075,  died: 49,  dead: 194

Mar  9:  real: 11,364,  official: 7,161,  infectious: 11,364,  died: 43,  dead: 237

Mar 10:  real: 12,729,  official: 8,042,  infectious: 12,729,  died: 54,  dead: 291

Mar 11:  real: 13,938,  official: 9,000,  infectious: 13,938,  died: 63,  dead: 354

Mar 12:  real: 14,991,  official: 10,075,  infectious: 14,991,  died: 75,  dead: 429

Mar 13:  real: 16,169,  official: 11,364,  infectious: 16,169,  died: 85,  dead: 514

Mar 14:  real: 17,361,  official: 12,729,  infectious: 17,361,  died: 97,  dead: 611

Mar 15:  real: 18,407,  official: 13,938,  infectious: 18,407,  died: 113,  dead: 724

Mar 16:  real: 19,644,  official: 14,991,  infectious: 19,644,  died: 129,  dead: 853

Mar 17:  real: 20,610,  official: 16,169,  infectious: 20,610,  died: 135,  dead: 988

Mar 18:  real: 21,638,  official: 17,361,  infectious: 21,638,  died: 147,  dead: 1,135

Mar 19:  real: 23,049,  official: 18,407,  infectious: 23,049,  died: 149,  dead: 1,284

Mar 20:  real: 24,811,  official: 19,644,  infectious: 24,811,  died: 149,  dead: 1,433

Mar 21:  real: 27,017,  official: 20,610,  infectious: 27,017,  died: 123,  dead: 1,556

Mar 22:  real: 29,406,  official: 21,638,  infectious: 29,406,  died: 129,  dead: 1,685

Mar 23:  real: 32,332,  official: 23,049,  infectious: 32,332,  died: 127,  dead: 1,812

Mar 24:  real: 35,408,  official: 24,811,  infectious: 35,408,  died: 122,  dead: 1,934

Mar 25:  real: 38,309,  official: 27,017,  infectious: 38,309,  died: 143,  dead: 2,077

Mar 26:  real: 41,495,  official: 29,406,  infectious: 41,495,  died: 157,  dead: 2,234

Mar 27:  real: 44,605,  official: 32,332,  infectious: 44,605,  died: 144,  dead: 2,378

Mar 28:  real: 47,593,  official: 35,408,  infectious: 47,593,  died: 139,  dead: 2,517

Mar 29:  real: 50,468,  official: 38,309,  infectious: 50,468,  died: 123,  dead: 2,640

Mar 30:  real: 53,183,  official: 41,495,  infectious: 53,183,  died: 117,  dead: 2,757

Mar 31:  real: 55,743,  official: 44,605,  infectious: 55,743,  died: 141,  dead: 2,898

Apr  1:  real: 58,226,  official: 47,593,  infectious: 58,226,  died: 138,  dead: 3,036

Apr  2:  real: 60,500,  official: 50,468,  infectious: 60,500,  died: 124,  dead: 3,160

Apr  3:  real: 62,589,  official: 53,183,  infectious: 62,589,  died: 134,  dead: 3,294

Apr  4:  real: 64,586,  official: 55,743,  infectious: 64,586,  died: 158,  dead: 3,452

Apr  5:  real: 66,220,  official: 58,226,  infectious: 66,220,  died: 151,  dead: 3,603

Apr  6:  real: 68,192,  official: 60,500,  infectious: 68,192,  died: 136,  dead: 3,739

Apr  7:  real: 70,029,  official: 62,589,  infectious: 70,029,  died: 133,  dead: 3,872

Apr  8:  real: 71,686,  official: 64,586,  infectious: 71,686,  died: 121,  dead: 3,993

Apr  9:  real: 73,303,  official: 66,220,  infectious: 73,303,  died: 117,  dead: 4,110

Apr 10:  real: 74,877,  official: 68,192,  infectious: 74,877,  died: 122,  dead: 4,232

Apr 11:  real: 76,389,  official: 70,029,  infectious: 76,389,  died: 125,  dead: 4,357

Apr 12:  real: 77,995,  official: 71,686,  infectious: 77,995,  died: 117,  dead: 4,474

Apr 13:  real: 79,494,  official: 73,303,  infectious: 79,494,  died: 111,  dead: 4,585

Apr 14:  real: 80,868,  official: 74,877,  infectious: 80,868,  died: 98,  dead: 4,683

Apr 15:  real: 82,211,  official: 76,389,  infectious: 82,211,  died: 94,  dead: 4,777

Apr 16:  real: 83,505,  official: 77,995,  infectious: 83,505,  died: 92,  dead: 4,869

Apr 17:  real: 84,802,  official: 79,494,  infectious: 84,802,  died: 89,  dead: 4,958

Apr 18:  real: 85,996,  official: 80,868,  infectious: 85,996,  died: 73,  dead: 5,031

Apr 19:  real: 87,026,  official: 82,211,  infectious: 87,026,  died: 87,  dead: 5,118

Apr 20:  real: 88,194,  official: 83,505,  infectious: 88,194,  died: 91,  dead: 5,209

Apr 21:  real: 89,328,  official: 84,802,  infectious: 89,328,  died: 88,  dead: 5,297

Apr 22:  real: 90,481,  official: 85,996,  infectious: 90,481,  died: 94,  dead: 5,391

Apr 23:  real: 91,472,  official: 87,026,  infectious: 91,472,  died: 90,  dead: 5,481

Apr 24:  real: 92,584,  official: 88,194,  infectious: 92,584,  died: 93,  dead: 5,574

Apr 25:  real: 93,657,  official: 89,328,  infectious: 93,657,  died: 76,  dead: 5,650

Apr 26:  real: 94,640,  official: 90,481,  infectious: 94,640,  died: 60,  dead: 5,710

Apr 27:  real: 95,646,  official: 91,472,  infectious: 95,646,  died: 96,  dead: 5,806

Apr 28:  real: 96,448,  official: 92,584,  infectious: 96,448,  died: 71,  dead: 5,877

Apr 29:  real: 97,424,  official: 93,657,  infectious: 97,424,  died: 80,  dead: 5,957

Apr 30:  real: 98,647,  official: 94,640,  infectious: 98,647,  died: 71,  dead: 6,028

May  1:  real: 99,970,  official: 95,646,  infectious: 99,970,  died: 63,  dead: 6,091

May  2:  real: 101,650,  official: 96,448,  infectious: 101,650,  died: 65,  dead: 6,156

May  3:  real: 103,135,  official: 97,424,  infectious: 103,135,  died: 47,  dead: 6,203

May  4:  real: 104,691,  official: 98,647,  infectious: 104,691,  died: 74,  dead: 6,277

May  5:  real: 106,220,  official: 99,970,  infectious: 106,220,  died: 63,  dead: 6,340

May  6:  real: 107,603,  official: 101,650,  infectious: 107,603,  died: 78,  dead: 6,418

May  7:  real: 109,286,  official: 103,135,  infectious: 109,286,  died: 68,  dead: 6,486

May  8:  real: 110,767,  official: 104,691,  infectious: 110,767,  died: 55,  dead: 6,541

May  9:  real: 112,725,  official: 106,220,  infectious: 112,725,  died: 48,  dead: 6,589

May 10:  real: 114,533,  official: 107,603,  infectious: 114,533,  died: 51,  dead: 6,640

May 11:  real: 116,635,  official: 109,286,  infectious: 116,635,  died: 45,  dead: 6,685

May 12:  real: 118,392,  official: 110,767,  infectious: 118,392,  died: 48,  dead: 6,733

May 13:  real: 120,198,  official: 112,725,  infectious: 120,198,  died: 50,  dead: 6,783

May 14:  real: 122,492,  official: 114,533,  infectious: 122,492,  died: 71,  dead: 6,854

May 15:  real: 124,603,  official: 116,635,  infectious: 124,603,  died: 48,  dead: 6,902

May 16:  real: 126,949,  official: 118,392,  infectious: 126,949,  died: 35,  dead: 6,937

May 17:  real: 129,341,  official: 120,198,  infectious: 129,341,  died: 51,  dead: 6,988

May 18:  real: 131,652,  official: 122,492,  infectious: 131,652,  died: 69,  dead: 7,057

May 19:  real: 133,521,  official: 124,603,  infectious: 133,521,  died: 62,  dead: 7,119

May 20:  real: 135,701,  official: 126,949,  infectious: 135,701,  died: 64,  dead: 7,183

May 21:  real: 137,724,  official: 129,341,  infectious: 137,724,  died: 66,  dead: 7,249

May 22:  real: 139,511,  official: 131,652,  infectious: 139,511,  died: 51,  dead: 7,300

May 23:  real: 141,591,  official: 133,521,  infectious: 141,591,  died: 59,  dead: 7,359

May 24:  real: 143,849,  official: 135,701,  infectious: 143,849,  died: 58,  dead: 7,417

May 25:  real: 146,668,  official: 137,724,  infectious: 146,668,  died: 34,  dead: 7,451

May 26:  real: 148,950,  official: 139,511,  infectious: 148,950,  died: 57,  dead: 7,508

May 27:  real: 151,466,  official: 141,591,  infectious: 151,466,  died: 56,  dead: 7,564

May 28:  real: 154,445,  official: 143,849,  infectious: 154,445,  died: 63,  dead: 7,627

May 29:  real: 157,562,  official: 146,668,  infectious: 157,562,  died: 50,  dead: 7,677

May 30:  real: 160,696,  official: 148,950,  infectious: 160,696,  died: 57,  dead: 7,734

May 31:  real: 164,270,  official: 151,466,  infectious: 164,270,  died: 63,  dead: 7,797

Jun  1:  real: 167,156,  official: 154,445,  infectious: 167,156,  died: 81,  dead: 7,878

Jun  2:  real: 169,425,  official: 157,562,  infectious: 169,425,  died: 64,  dead: 7,942

Jun  3:  real: 171,789,  official: 160,696,  infectious: 171,789,  died: 70,  dead: 8,012

Jun  4:  real: 173,832,  official: 164,270,  infectious: 173,832,  died: 59,  dead: 8,071

Jun  5:  real: 175,927,  official: 167,156,  infectious: 175,927,  died: 63,  dead: 8,134

Jun  6:  real: 177,938,  official: 169,425,  infectious: 177,938,  died: 75,  dead: 8,209

Jun  7:  real: 180,156,  official: 171,789,  infectious: 180,156,  died: 72,  dead: 8,281

Jun  8:  real: 182,545,  official: 173,832,  infectious: 182,545,  died: 70,  dead: 8,351

Jun  9:  real: 184,955,  official: 175,927,  infectious: 184,955,  died: 74,  dead: 8,425

Jun 10:  real: 187,427,  official: 177,938,  infectious: 187,427,  died: 81,  dead: 8,506

Jun 11:  real: 189,876,  official: 180,156,  infectious: 189,876,  died: 78,  dead: 8,584

Jun 12:  real: 192,439,  official: 182,545,  infectious: 192,439,  died: 75,  dead: 8,659

Jun 13:  real: 195,051,  official: 184,955,  infectious: 195,051,  died: 71,  dead: 8,730

Jun 14:  real: 197,647,  official: 187,427,  infectious: 197,647,  died: 107,  dead: 8,837

Jun 15:  real: 200,262,  official: 189,876,  infectious: 200,262,  died: 113,  dead: 8,950

Jun 16:  real: 202,584,  official: 192,439,  infectious: 202,584,  died: 115,  dead: 9,065

Jun 17:  real: 204,952,  official: 195,051,  infectious: 204,952,  died: 120,  dead: 9,185

Jun 18:  real: 207,525,  official: 197,647,  infectious: 207,525,  died: 87,  dead: 9,272

Jun 19:  real: 209,970,  official: 200,262,  infectious: 209,970,  died: 120,  dead: 9,392

Jun 20:  real: 212,501,  official: 202,584,  infectious: 212,501,  died: 115,  dead: 9,507

Jun 21:  real: 215,096,  official: 204,952,  infectious: 215,096,  died: 116,  dead: 9,623

Jun 22:  real: 217,724,  official: 207,525,  infectious: 217,724,  died: 119,  dead: 9,742

Jun 23:  real: 220,180,  official: 209,970,  infectious: 220,180,  died: 121,  dead: 9,863

Jun 24:  real: 222,669,  official: 212,501,  infectious: 222,669,  died: 133,  dead: 9,996

Jun 25:  real: 225,205,  official: 215,096,  infectious: 225,205,  died: 134,  dead: 10,130

Jun 26:  real: 227,662,  official: 217,724,  infectious: 227,662,  died: 109,  dead: 10,239

Jun 27:  real: 230,211,  official: 220,180,  infectious: 230,211,  died: 125,  dead: 10,364

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 230,695,  official: 222,669,  infectious: 43,253,  died: 35,  dead: 10,399

Jun 29:  real: 231,187,  official: 225,205,  infectious: 43,962,  died: 36,  dead: 10,435

Jun 30:  real: 231,658,  official: 227,662,  infectious: 42,104,  died: 36,  dead: 10,471

Jul  1:  real: 232,108,  official: 230,211,  infectious: 40,224,  died: 34,  dead: 10,505

Jul  2:  real: 232,536,  official: 230,695,  infectious: 38,264,  died: 34,  dead: 10,539

Jul  3:  real: 232,942,  official: 231,187,  infectious: 36,300,  died: 35,  dead: 10,574

Jul  4:  real: 233,325,  official: 231,658,  infectious: 34,248,  died: 34,  dead: 10,608

Jul  5:  real: 233,685,  official: 232,108,  infectious: 32,129,  died: 35,  dead: 10,643

Jul  6:  real: 234,021,  official: 232,536,  infectious: 29,995,  died: 0,  dead: 10,643

Jul  7:  real: 234,332,  official: 232,942,  infectious: 27,831,  died: 35,  dead: 10,678

Jul  8:  real: 234,622,  official: 233,325,  infectious: 25,905,  died: 36,  dead: 10,714

Jul  9:  real: 234,893,  official: 233,685,  infectious: 24,223,  died: 36,  dead: 10,750

Jul 10:  real: 235,143,  official: 234,021,  infectious: 22,356,  died: 34,  dead: 10,784

Jul 11:  real: 235,373,  official: 234,332,  infectious: 20,578,  died: 34,  dead: 10,818

Jul 12:  real: 235,582,  official: 234,622,  infectious: 18,714,  died: 35,  dead: 10,853

Jul 13:  real: 235,770,  official: 234,893,  infectious: 16,784,  died: 34,  dead: 10,887

Jul 14:  real: 235,936,  official: 235,143,  infectious: 14,811,  died: 35,  dead: 10,922

Jul 15:  real: 236,081,  official: 235,373,  infectious: 12,957,  died: 13,  dead: 10,935

Jul 16:  real: 236,205,  official: 235,582,  infectious: 11,060,  died: 13,  dead: 10,948

Jul 17:  real: 236,307,  official: 235,770,  infectious: 9,109,  died: 13,  dead: 10,961

Jul 18:  real: 236,388,  official: 235,936,  infectious: 7,206,  died: 12,  dead: 10,973

Jul 19:  real: 236,446,  official: 236,081,  infectious: 5,210,  died: 11,  dead: 10,984

Jul 20:  real: 236,500,  official: 236,205,  infectious: 4,851,  died: 11,  dead: 10,995

Jul 21:  real: 236,550,  official: 236,307,  infectious: 4,467,  died: 10,  dead: 11,005

Jul 22:  real: 236,596,  official: 236,388,  infectious: 4,100,  died: 9,  dead: 11,014

Jul 23:  real: 236,638,  official: 236,446,  infectious: 3,749,  died: 9,  dead: 11,023

Jul 24:  real: 236,676,  official: 236,500,  infectious: 3,415,  died: 8,  dead: 11,031

Jul 25:  real: 236,711,  official: 236,550,  infectious: 3,100,  died: 7,  dead: 11,038

Jul 26:  real: 236,742,  official: 236,596,  infectious: 2,804,  died: 7,  dead: 11,045

Jul 27:  real: 236,770,  official: 236,638,  infectious: 2,527,  died: 6,  dead: 11,051

Jul 28:  real: 236,795,  official: 236,676,  infectious: 2,270,  died: 6,  dead: 11,057

Jul 29:  real: 236,818,  official: 236,711,  infectious: 2,034,  died: 5,  dead: 11,062

Jul 30:  real: 236,838,  official: 236,742,  infectious: 1,816,  died: 4,  dead: 11,066

Jul 31:  real: 236,856,  official: 236,770,  infectious: 1,611,  died: 4,  dead: 11,070

Aug  1:  real: 236,872,  official: 236,795,  infectious: 1,421,  died: 3,  dead: 11,073

Aug  2:  real: 236,886,  official: 236,818,  infectious: 1,246,  died: 3,  dead: 11,076

Aug  3:  real: 236,898,  official: 236,838,  infectious: 1,087,  died: 2,  dead: 11,078

Aug  4:  real: 236,909,  official: 236,856,  infectious: 944,  died: 2,  dead: 11,080

Aug  5:  real: 236,918,  official: 236,872,  infectious: 816,  died: 1,  dead: 11,081

Aug  6:  real: 236,926,  official: 236,886,  infectious: 705,  died: 1,  dead: 11,082

Aug  7:  real: 236,933,  official: 236,898,  infectious: 609,  died: 1,  dead: 11,083

Aug  8:  real: 236,939,  official: 236,909,  infectious: 531,  died: 1,  dead: 11,084

Aug  9:  real: 236,944,  official: 236,918,  infectious: 469,  died: 1,  dead: 11,085

Aug 10:  real: 236,949,  official: 236,926,  infectious: 425,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 11:  real: 236,953,  official: 236,933,  infectious: 384,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 12:  real: 236,957,  official: 236,939,  infectious: 346,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 13:  real: 236,960,  official: 236,944,  infectious: 310,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 14:  real: 236,963,  official: 236,949,  infectious: 279,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 15:  real: 236,966,  official: 236,953,  infectious: 249,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 16:  real: 236,968,  official: 236,957,  infectious: 222,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 17:  real: 236,970,  official: 236,960,  infectious: 198,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 18:  real: 236,972,  official: 236,963,  infectious: 176,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 19:  real: 236,974,  official: 236,966,  infectious: 157,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 20:  real: 236,976,  official: 236,968,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 21:  real: 236,977,  official: 236,970,  infectious: 125,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 22:  real: 236,978,  official: 236,972,  infectious: 111,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 23:  real: 236,979,  official: 236,974,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 24:  real: 236,980,  official: 236,976,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 25:  real: 236,981,  official: 236,977,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 26:  real: 236,982,  official: 236,978,  infectious: 68,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 27:  real: 236,983,  official: 236,979,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 28:  real: 236,984,  official: 236,980,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 29:  real: 236,985,  official: 236,981,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 30:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,982,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Aug 31:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,983,  infectious: 41,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  1:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,984,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  2:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,985,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  3:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  4:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  5:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  6:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  7:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  8:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep  9:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 10:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 11:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 12:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 13:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 14:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 15:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 16:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 17:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 18:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 19:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 20:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 21:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 22:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 23:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 24:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 25:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 26:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 27:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 28:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 29:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Sep 30:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  1:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  2:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  3:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  4:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  5:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  6:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  7:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  8:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct  9:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 10:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 11:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 12:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 13:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 14:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 15:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 16:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 17:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 18:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 19:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 20:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 21:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 22:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 23:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 24:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 25:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 26:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 27:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 28:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 29:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 30:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Oct 31:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  1:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  2:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  3:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  4:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  5:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  6:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  7:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  8:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov  9:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 10:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 11:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 12:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 13:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 14:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 15:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 16:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 17:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 18:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 19:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 20:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 21:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 22:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 23:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 24:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 25:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 26:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 27:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 28:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 29:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Nov 30:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  1:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  2:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  3:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  4:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  5:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  6:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  7:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  8:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec  9:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 10:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 11:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 12:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 13:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 14:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 15:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 16:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 17:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 18:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 19:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 20:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 21:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 22:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 23:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 24:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 25:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 26:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 27:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 28:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 29:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 30:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

Dec 31:  real: 236,986,  official: 236,986,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 11,085

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         36:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     11,085:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     11,085:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.12%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0112
Official uninf: 49,769,789 / Adult Pop.: 50,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.54%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0046
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.12%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0112