Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.
G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH spaceHover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.
If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.
How to read the Log Chart: Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths. Right, dotted lines: projections. Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on. Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different. Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20. A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in, and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat. Forced deaths start about a week after when the red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region, meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators. Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region, and you run out of staffed hospital bed space. Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon. As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink in the black Death rate simulation line at Today. Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated, in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away. Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions. We are working to improve this simulation factor soon. Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical. Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes. Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off. As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this. Since the log Growth curve has recently changed and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S., we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast. Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected. Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.
Wed, Jul 1, 2020:
The curve is now 10x in 207 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Iran run out of space,
is forecast to be NEVER.
And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Iran are used up,
is forecast to be NEVER.
May the officials use this time wisely.
As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 36: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 11,085: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 11,085: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.
Iran COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul 1, 2020: (using Beta = 0.011, at 101.12% Growth per day) Starting Run: Mar 1: real: 3,513, official: 978, infectious: 3,513, died: 54, dead: 54 Mar 2: real: 4,747, official: 1,501, infectious: 4,747, died: 12, dead: 66 Mar 3: real: 5,823, official: 2,336, infectious: 5,823, died: 11, dead: 77 Mar 4: real: 6,566, official: 2,922, infectious: 6,566, died: 15, dead: 92 Mar 5: real: 7,161, official: 3,513, infectious: 7,161, died: 16, dead: 108 Mar 6: real: 8,042, official: 4,747, infectious: 8,042, died: 16, dead: 124 Mar 7: real: 9,000, official: 5,823, infectious: 9,000, died: 21, dead: 145 Mar 8: real: 10,075, official: 6,566, infectious: 10,075, died: 49, dead: 194 Mar 9: real: 11,364, official: 7,161, infectious: 11,364, died: 43, dead: 237 Mar 10: real: 12,729, official: 8,042, infectious: 12,729, died: 54, dead: 291 Mar 11: real: 13,938, official: 9,000, infectious: 13,938, died: 63, dead: 354 Mar 12: real: 14,991, official: 10,075, infectious: 14,991, died: 75, dead: 429 Mar 13: real: 16,169, official: 11,364, infectious: 16,169, died: 85, dead: 514 Mar 14: real: 17,361, official: 12,729, infectious: 17,361, died: 97, dead: 611 Mar 15: real: 18,407, official: 13,938, infectious: 18,407, died: 113, dead: 724 Mar 16: real: 19,644, official: 14,991, infectious: 19,644, died: 129, dead: 853 Mar 17: real: 20,610, official: 16,169, infectious: 20,610, died: 135, dead: 988 Mar 18: real: 21,638, official: 17,361, infectious: 21,638, died: 147, dead: 1,135 Mar 19: real: 23,049, official: 18,407, infectious: 23,049, died: 149, dead: 1,284 Mar 20: real: 24,811, official: 19,644, infectious: 24,811, died: 149, dead: 1,433 Mar 21: real: 27,017, official: 20,610, infectious: 27,017, died: 123, dead: 1,556 Mar 22: real: 29,406, official: 21,638, infectious: 29,406, died: 129, dead: 1,685 Mar 23: real: 32,332, official: 23,049, infectious: 32,332, died: 127, dead: 1,812 Mar 24: real: 35,408, official: 24,811, infectious: 35,408, died: 122, dead: 1,934 Mar 25: real: 38,309, official: 27,017, infectious: 38,309, died: 143, dead: 2,077 Mar 26: real: 41,495, official: 29,406, infectious: 41,495, died: 157, dead: 2,234 Mar 27: real: 44,605, official: 32,332, infectious: 44,605, died: 144, dead: 2,378 Mar 28: real: 47,593, official: 35,408, infectious: 47,593, died: 139, dead: 2,517 Mar 29: real: 50,468, official: 38,309, infectious: 50,468, died: 123, dead: 2,640 Mar 30: real: 53,183, official: 41,495, infectious: 53,183, died: 117, dead: 2,757 Mar 31: real: 55,743, official: 44,605, infectious: 55,743, died: 141, dead: 2,898 Apr 1: real: 58,226, official: 47,593, infectious: 58,226, died: 138, dead: 3,036 Apr 2: real: 60,500, official: 50,468, infectious: 60,500, died: 124, dead: 3,160 Apr 3: real: 62,589, official: 53,183, infectious: 62,589, died: 134, dead: 3,294 Apr 4: real: 64,586, official: 55,743, infectious: 64,586, died: 158, dead: 3,452 Apr 5: real: 66,220, official: 58,226, infectious: 66,220, died: 151, dead: 3,603 Apr 6: real: 68,192, official: 60,500, infectious: 68,192, died: 136, dead: 3,739 Apr 7: real: 70,029, official: 62,589, infectious: 70,029, died: 133, dead: 3,872 Apr 8: real: 71,686, official: 64,586, infectious: 71,686, died: 121, dead: 3,993 Apr 9: real: 73,303, official: 66,220, infectious: 73,303, died: 117, dead: 4,110 Apr 10: real: 74,877, official: 68,192, infectious: 74,877, died: 122, dead: 4,232 Apr 11: real: 76,389, official: 70,029, infectious: 76,389, died: 125, dead: 4,357 Apr 12: real: 77,995, official: 71,686, infectious: 77,995, died: 117, dead: 4,474 Apr 13: real: 79,494, official: 73,303, infectious: 79,494, died: 111, dead: 4,585 Apr 14: real: 80,868, official: 74,877, infectious: 80,868, died: 98, dead: 4,683 Apr 15: real: 82,211, official: 76,389, infectious: 82,211, died: 94, dead: 4,777 Apr 16: real: 83,505, official: 77,995, infectious: 83,505, died: 92, dead: 4,869 Apr 17: real: 84,802, official: 79,494, infectious: 84,802, died: 89, dead: 4,958 Apr 18: real: 85,996, official: 80,868, infectious: 85,996, died: 73, dead: 5,031 Apr 19: real: 87,026, official: 82,211, infectious: 87,026, died: 87, dead: 5,118 Apr 20: real: 88,194, official: 83,505, infectious: 88,194, died: 91, dead: 5,209 Apr 21: real: 89,328, official: 84,802, infectious: 89,328, died: 88, dead: 5,297 Apr 22: real: 90,481, official: 85,996, infectious: 90,481, died: 94, dead: 5,391 Apr 23: real: 91,472, official: 87,026, infectious: 91,472, died: 90, dead: 5,481 Apr 24: real: 92,584, official: 88,194, infectious: 92,584, died: 93, dead: 5,574 Apr 25: real: 93,657, official: 89,328, infectious: 93,657, died: 76, dead: 5,650 Apr 26: real: 94,640, official: 90,481, infectious: 94,640, died: 60, dead: 5,710 Apr 27: real: 95,646, official: 91,472, infectious: 95,646, died: 96, dead: 5,806 Apr 28: real: 96,448, official: 92,584, infectious: 96,448, died: 71, dead: 5,877 Apr 29: real: 97,424, official: 93,657, infectious: 97,424, died: 80, dead: 5,957 Apr 30: real: 98,647, official: 94,640, infectious: 98,647, died: 71, dead: 6,028 May 1: real: 99,970, official: 95,646, infectious: 99,970, died: 63, dead: 6,091 May 2: real: 101,650, official: 96,448, infectious: 101,650, died: 65, dead: 6,156 May 3: real: 103,135, official: 97,424, infectious: 103,135, died: 47, dead: 6,203 May 4: real: 104,691, official: 98,647, infectious: 104,691, died: 74, dead: 6,277 May 5: real: 106,220, official: 99,970, infectious: 106,220, died: 63, dead: 6,340 May 6: real: 107,603, official: 101,650, infectious: 107,603, died: 78, dead: 6,418 May 7: real: 109,286, official: 103,135, infectious: 109,286, died: 68, dead: 6,486 May 8: real: 110,767, official: 104,691, infectious: 110,767, died: 55, dead: 6,541 May 9: real: 112,725, official: 106,220, infectious: 112,725, died: 48, dead: 6,589 May 10: real: 114,533, official: 107,603, infectious: 114,533, died: 51, dead: 6,640 May 11: real: 116,635, official: 109,286, infectious: 116,635, died: 45, dead: 6,685 May 12: real: 118,392, official: 110,767, infectious: 118,392, died: 48, dead: 6,733 May 13: real: 120,198, official: 112,725, infectious: 120,198, died: 50, dead: 6,783 May 14: real: 122,492, official: 114,533, infectious: 122,492, died: 71, dead: 6,854 May 15: real: 124,603, official: 116,635, infectious: 124,603, died: 48, dead: 6,902 May 16: real: 126,949, official: 118,392, infectious: 126,949, died: 35, dead: 6,937 May 17: real: 129,341, official: 120,198, infectious: 129,341, died: 51, dead: 6,988 May 18: real: 131,652, official: 122,492, infectious: 131,652, died: 69, dead: 7,057 May 19: real: 133,521, official: 124,603, infectious: 133,521, died: 62, dead: 7,119 May 20: real: 135,701, official: 126,949, infectious: 135,701, died: 64, dead: 7,183 May 21: real: 137,724, official: 129,341, infectious: 137,724, died: 66, dead: 7,249 May 22: real: 139,511, official: 131,652, infectious: 139,511, died: 51, dead: 7,300 May 23: real: 141,591, official: 133,521, infectious: 141,591, died: 59, dead: 7,359 May 24: real: 143,849, official: 135,701, infectious: 143,849, died: 58, dead: 7,417 May 25: real: 146,668, official: 137,724, infectious: 146,668, died: 34, dead: 7,451 May 26: real: 148,950, official: 139,511, infectious: 148,950, died: 57, dead: 7,508 May 27: real: 151,466, official: 141,591, infectious: 151,466, died: 56, dead: 7,564 May 28: real: 154,445, official: 143,849, infectious: 154,445, died: 63, dead: 7,627 May 29: real: 157,562, official: 146,668, infectious: 157,562, died: 50, dead: 7,677 May 30: real: 160,696, official: 148,950, infectious: 160,696, died: 57, dead: 7,734 May 31: real: 164,270, official: 151,466, infectious: 164,270, died: 63, dead: 7,797 Jun 1: real: 167,156, official: 154,445, infectious: 167,156, died: 81, dead: 7,878 Jun 2: real: 169,425, official: 157,562, infectious: 169,425, died: 64, dead: 7,942 Jun 3: real: 171,789, official: 160,696, infectious: 171,789, died: 70, dead: 8,012 Jun 4: real: 173,832, official: 164,270, infectious: 173,832, died: 59, dead: 8,071 Jun 5: real: 175,927, official: 167,156, infectious: 175,927, died: 63, dead: 8,134 Jun 6: real: 177,938, official: 169,425, infectious: 177,938, died: 75, dead: 8,209 Jun 7: real: 180,156, official: 171,789, infectious: 180,156, died: 72, dead: 8,281 Jun 8: real: 182,545, official: 173,832, infectious: 182,545, died: 70, dead: 8,351 Jun 9: real: 184,955, official: 175,927, infectious: 184,955, died: 74, dead: 8,425 Jun 10: real: 187,427, official: 177,938, infectious: 187,427, died: 81, dead: 8,506 Jun 11: real: 189,876, official: 180,156, infectious: 189,876, died: 78, dead: 8,584 Jun 12: real: 192,439, official: 182,545, infectious: 192,439, died: 75, dead: 8,659 Jun 13: real: 195,051, official: 184,955, infectious: 195,051, died: 71, dead: 8,730 Jun 14: real: 197,647, official: 187,427, infectious: 197,647, died: 107, dead: 8,837 Jun 15: real: 200,262, official: 189,876, infectious: 200,262, died: 113, dead: 8,950 Jun 16: real: 202,584, official: 192,439, infectious: 202,584, died: 115, dead: 9,065 Jun 17: real: 204,952, official: 195,051, infectious: 204,952, died: 120, dead: 9,185 Jun 18: real: 207,525, official: 197,647, infectious: 207,525, died: 87, dead: 9,272 Jun 19: real: 209,970, official: 200,262, infectious: 209,970, died: 120, dead: 9,392 Jun 20: real: 212,501, official: 202,584, infectious: 212,501, died: 115, dead: 9,507 Jun 21: real: 215,096, official: 204,952, infectious: 215,096, died: 116, dead: 9,623 Jun 22: real: 217,724, official: 207,525, infectious: 217,724, died: 119, dead: 9,742 Jun 23: real: 220,180, official: 209,970, infectious: 220,180, died: 121, dead: 9,863 Jun 24: real: 222,669, official: 212,501, infectious: 222,669, died: 133, dead: 9,996 Jun 25: real: 225,205, official: 215,096, infectious: 225,205, died: 134, dead: 10,130 Jun 26: real: 227,662, official: 217,724, infectious: 227,662, died: 109, dead: 10,239 Jun 27: real: 230,211, official: 220,180, infectious: 230,211, died: 125, dead: 10,364 ...simulation engine starts here... Jun 28: real: 230,695, official: 222,669, infectious: 43,253, died: 35, dead: 10,399 Jun 29: real: 231,187, official: 225,205, infectious: 43,962, died: 36, dead: 10,435 Jun 30: real: 231,658, official: 227,662, infectious: 42,104, died: 36, dead: 10,471 Jul 1: real: 232,108, official: 230,211, infectious: 40,224, died: 34, dead: 10,505 Jul 2: real: 232,536, official: 230,695, infectious: 38,264, died: 34, dead: 10,539 Jul 3: real: 232,942, official: 231,187, infectious: 36,300, died: 35, dead: 10,574 Jul 4: real: 233,325, official: 231,658, infectious: 34,248, died: 34, dead: 10,608 Jul 5: real: 233,685, official: 232,108, infectious: 32,129, died: 35, dead: 10,643 Jul 6: real: 234,021, official: 232,536, infectious: 29,995, died: 0, dead: 10,643 Jul 7: real: 234,332, official: 232,942, infectious: 27,831, died: 35, dead: 10,678 Jul 8: real: 234,622, official: 233,325, infectious: 25,905, died: 36, dead: 10,714 Jul 9: real: 234,893, official: 233,685, infectious: 24,223, died: 36, dead: 10,750 Jul 10: real: 235,143, official: 234,021, infectious: 22,356, died: 34, dead: 10,784 Jul 11: real: 235,373, official: 234,332, infectious: 20,578, died: 34, dead: 10,818 Jul 12: real: 235,582, official: 234,622, infectious: 18,714, died: 35, dead: 10,853 Jul 13: real: 235,770, official: 234,893, infectious: 16,784, died: 34, dead: 10,887 Jul 14: real: 235,936, official: 235,143, infectious: 14,811, died: 35, dead: 10,922 Jul 15: real: 236,081, official: 235,373, infectious: 12,957, died: 13, dead: 10,935 Jul 16: real: 236,205, official: 235,582, infectious: 11,060, died: 13, dead: 10,948 Jul 17: real: 236,307, official: 235,770, infectious: 9,109, died: 13, dead: 10,961 Jul 18: real: 236,388, official: 235,936, infectious: 7,206, died: 12, dead: 10,973 Jul 19: real: 236,446, official: 236,081, infectious: 5,210, died: 11, dead: 10,984 Jul 20: real: 236,500, official: 236,205, infectious: 4,851, died: 11, dead: 10,995 Jul 21: real: 236,550, official: 236,307, infectious: 4,467, died: 10, dead: 11,005 Jul 22: real: 236,596, official: 236,388, infectious: 4,100, died: 9, dead: 11,014 Jul 23: real: 236,638, official: 236,446, infectious: 3,749, died: 9, dead: 11,023 Jul 24: real: 236,676, official: 236,500, infectious: 3,415, died: 8, dead: 11,031 Jul 25: real: 236,711, official: 236,550, infectious: 3,100, died: 7, dead: 11,038 Jul 26: real: 236,742, official: 236,596, infectious: 2,804, died: 7, dead: 11,045 Jul 27: real: 236,770, official: 236,638, infectious: 2,527, died: 6, dead: 11,051 Jul 28: real: 236,795, official: 236,676, infectious: 2,270, died: 6, dead: 11,057 Jul 29: real: 236,818, official: 236,711, infectious: 2,034, died: 5, dead: 11,062 Jul 30: real: 236,838, official: 236,742, infectious: 1,816, died: 4, dead: 11,066 Jul 31: real: 236,856, official: 236,770, infectious: 1,611, died: 4, dead: 11,070 Aug 1: real: 236,872, official: 236,795, infectious: 1,421, died: 3, dead: 11,073 Aug 2: real: 236,886, official: 236,818, infectious: 1,246, died: 3, dead: 11,076 Aug 3: real: 236,898, official: 236,838, infectious: 1,087, died: 2, dead: 11,078 Aug 4: real: 236,909, official: 236,856, infectious: 944, died: 2, dead: 11,080 Aug 5: real: 236,918, official: 236,872, infectious: 816, died: 1, dead: 11,081 Aug 6: real: 236,926, official: 236,886, infectious: 705, died: 1, dead: 11,082 Aug 7: real: 236,933, official: 236,898, infectious: 609, died: 1, dead: 11,083 Aug 8: real: 236,939, official: 236,909, infectious: 531, died: 1, dead: 11,084 Aug 9: real: 236,944, official: 236,918, infectious: 469, died: 1, dead: 11,085 Aug 10: real: 236,949, official: 236,926, infectious: 425, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 11: real: 236,953, official: 236,933, infectious: 384, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 12: real: 236,957, official: 236,939, infectious: 346, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 13: real: 236,960, official: 236,944, infectious: 310, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 14: real: 236,963, official: 236,949, infectious: 279, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 15: real: 236,966, official: 236,953, infectious: 249, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 16: real: 236,968, official: 236,957, infectious: 222, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 17: real: 236,970, official: 236,960, infectious: 198, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 18: real: 236,972, official: 236,963, infectious: 176, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 19: real: 236,974, official: 236,966, infectious: 157, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 20: real: 236,976, official: 236,968, infectious: 140, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 21: real: 236,977, official: 236,970, infectious: 125, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 22: real: 236,978, official: 236,972, infectious: 111, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 23: real: 236,979, official: 236,974, infectious: 98, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 24: real: 236,980, official: 236,976, infectious: 87, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 25: real: 236,981, official: 236,977, infectious: 77, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 26: real: 236,982, official: 236,978, infectious: 68, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 27: real: 236,983, official: 236,979, infectious: 61, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 28: real: 236,984, official: 236,980, infectious: 55, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 29: real: 236,985, official: 236,981, infectious: 50, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 30: real: 236,986, official: 236,982, infectious: 45, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Aug 31: real: 236,986, official: 236,983, infectious: 41, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 1: real: 236,986, official: 236,984, infectious: 37, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 2: real: 236,986, official: 236,985, infectious: 33, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 3: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 29, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 4: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 26, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 5: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 23, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 6: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 7: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 18, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 8: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 16, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 9: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 14, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 10: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 12, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 11: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 10, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 12: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 9, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 13: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 8, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 14: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 7, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 15: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 6, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 16: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 5, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 17: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 4, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 18: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 3, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 19: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 2, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 20: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 1, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 21: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 22: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 23: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 24: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 25: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 26: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 27: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 28: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 29: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Sep 30: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 1: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 2: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 3: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 4: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 5: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 6: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 7: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 8: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 9: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 10: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 11: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 12: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 13: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 14: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 15: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 16: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 17: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 18: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 19: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 20: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 21: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 22: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 23: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 24: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 25: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 26: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 27: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 28: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 29: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 30: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Oct 31: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 1: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 2: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 3: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 4: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 5: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 6: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 7: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 8: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 9: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 10: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 11: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 12: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 13: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 14: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 15: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 16: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 17: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 18: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 19: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 20: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 21: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 22: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 23: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 24: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 25: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 26: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 27: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 28: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 29: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Nov 30: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 1: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 2: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 3: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 4: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 5: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 6: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 7: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 8: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 9: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 10: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 11: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 12: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 13: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 14: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 15: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 16: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 17: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 18: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 19: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 20: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 21: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 22: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 23: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 24: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 25: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 26: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 27: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 28: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 29: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 30: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 Dec 31: real: 236,986, official: 236,986, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 11,085 As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 36: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 11,085: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 11,085: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS Math Report: Official Growth: 101.12% = Apparent Beta: 0.0112 Official uninf: 49,769,789 / Adult Pop.: 50,000,000 = Choke Rate: 99.54% Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0046 Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.12% = Adjusted Beta: 0.0112