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COVID-19 Forecast for Poland, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
273 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Poland HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 273 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Poland run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Poland are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          4:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,490:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,490:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Poland COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.008, at 100.85% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 5,  official: 0,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 6,  official: 0,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 11,  official: 1,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 17,  official: 1,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 22,  official: 5,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 31,  official: 6,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 51,  official: 11,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 68,  official: 17,  infectious: 68,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 104,  official: 22,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 125,  official: 31,  infectious: 125,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 177,  official: 51,  infectious: 177,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 238,  official: 68,  infectious: 238,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 14:  real: 287,  official: 104,  infectious: 287,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 15:  real: 355,  official: 125,  infectious: 355,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 16:  real: 425,  official: 177,  infectious: 425,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 17:  real: 536,  official: 238,  infectious: 536,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Mar 18:  real: 634,  official: 287,  infectious: 634,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 19:  real: 749,  official: 355,  infectious: 749,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 20:  real: 901,  official: 425,  infectious: 901,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 21:  real: 1,051,  official: 536,  infectious: 1,051,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 22:  real: 1,221,  official: 634,  infectious: 1,221,  died: 2,  dead: 7

Mar 23:  real: 1,389,  official: 749,  infectious: 1,389,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Mar 24:  real: 1,638,  official: 901,  infectious: 1,638,  died: 2,  dead: 10

Mar 25:  real: 1,862,  official: 1,051,  infectious: 1,862,  died: 4,  dead: 14

Mar 26:  real: 2,055,  official: 1,221,  infectious: 2,055,  died: 2,  dead: 16

Mar 27:  real: 2,311,  official: 1,389,  infectious: 2,311,  died: 0,  dead: 16

Mar 28:  real: 2,554,  official: 1,638,  infectious: 2,554,  died: 2,  dead: 18

Mar 29:  real: 2,946,  official: 1,862,  infectious: 2,946,  died: 4,  dead: 22

Mar 30:  real: 3,383,  official: 2,055,  infectious: 3,383,  died: 9,  dead: 31

Mar 31:  real: 3,627,  official: 2,311,  infectious: 3,627,  died: 2,  dead: 33

Apr  1:  real: 4,102,  official: 2,554,  infectious: 4,102,  died: 10,  dead: 43

Apr  2:  real: 4,413,  official: 2,946,  infectious: 4,413,  died: 14,  dead: 57

Apr  3:  real: 4,848,  official: 3,383,  infectious: 4,848,  died: 14,  dead: 71

Apr  4:  real: 5,205,  official: 3,627,  infectious: 5,205,  died: 8,  dead: 79

Apr  5:  real: 5,575,  official: 4,102,  infectious: 5,575,  died: 15,  dead: 94

Apr  6:  real: 5,955,  official: 4,413,  infectious: 5,955,  died: 13,  dead: 107

Apr  7:  real: 6,356,  official: 4,848,  infectious: 6,356,  died: 22,  dead: 129

Apr  8:  real: 6,674,  official: 5,205,  infectious: 6,674,  died: 30,  dead: 159

Apr  9:  real: 6,934,  official: 5,575,  infectious: 6,934,  died: 15,  dead: 174

Apr 10:  real: 7,202,  official: 5,955,  infectious: 7,202,  died: 7,  dead: 181

Apr 11:  real: 7,582,  official: 6,356,  infectious: 7,582,  died: 27,  dead: 208

Apr 12:  real: 7,918,  official: 6,674,  infectious: 7,918,  died: 24,  dead: 232

Apr 13:  real: 8,379,  official: 6,934,  infectious: 8,379,  died: 13,  dead: 245

Apr 14:  real: 8,742,  official: 7,202,  infectious: 8,742,  died: 18,  dead: 263

Apr 15:  real: 9,287,  official: 7,582,  infectious: 9,287,  died: 23,  dead: 286

Apr 16:  real: 9,593,  official: 7,918,  infectious: 9,593,  died: 28,  dead: 314

Apr 17:  real: 9,856,  official: 8,379,  infectious: 9,856,  died: 18,  dead: 332

Apr 18:  real: 10,169,  official: 8,742,  infectious: 10,169,  died: 15,  dead: 347

Apr 19:  real: 10,511,  official: 9,287,  infectious: 10,511,  died: 13,  dead: 360

Apr 20:  real: 10,892,  official: 9,593,  infectious: 10,892,  died: 20,  dead: 380

Apr 21:  real: 11,273,  official: 9,856,  infectious: 11,273,  died: 21,  dead: 401

Apr 22:  real: 11,617,  official: 10,169,  infectious: 11,617,  died: 25,  dead: 426

Apr 23:  real: 11,902,  official: 10,511,  infectious: 11,902,  died: 28,  dead: 454

Apr 24:  real: 12,218,  official: 10,892,  infectious: 12,218,  died: 40,  dead: 494

Apr 25:  real: 12,640,  official: 11,273,  infectious: 12,640,  died: 30,  dead: 524

Apr 26:  real: 12,877,  official: 11,617,  infectious: 12,877,  died: 11,  dead: 535

Apr 27:  real: 13,105,  official: 11,902,  infectious: 13,105,  died: 27,  dead: 562

Apr 28:  real: 13,375,  official: 12,218,  infectious: 13,375,  died: 34,  dead: 596

Apr 29:  real: 13,693,  official: 12,640,  infectious: 13,693,  died: 28,  dead: 624

Apr 30:  real: 14,006,  official: 12,877,  infectious: 14,006,  died: 20,  dead: 644

May  1:  real: 14,431,  official: 13,105,  infectious: 14,431,  died: 7,  dead: 651

May  2:  real: 14,740,  official: 13,375,  infectious: 14,740,  died: 13,  dead: 664

May  3:  real: 15,047,  official: 13,693,  infectious: 15,047,  died: 14,  dead: 678

May  4:  real: 15,366,  official: 14,006,  infectious: 15,366,  died: 20,  dead: 698

May  5:  real: 15,651,  official: 14,431,  infectious: 15,651,  died: 18,  dead: 716

May  6:  real: 15,996,  official: 14,740,  infectious: 15,996,  died: 17,  dead: 733

May  7:  real: 16,326,  official: 15,047,  infectious: 16,326,  died: 22,  dead: 755

May  8:  real: 16,921,  official: 15,366,  infectious: 16,921,  died: 21,  dead: 776

May  9:  real: 17,204,  official: 15,651,  infectious: 17,204,  died: 9,  dead: 785

May 10:  real: 17,615,  official: 15,996,  infectious: 17,615,  died: 15,  dead: 800

May 11:  real: 18,016,  official: 16,326,  infectious: 18,016,  died: 11,  dead: 811

May 12:  real: 18,257,  official: 16,921,  infectious: 18,257,  died: 28,  dead: 839

May 13:  real: 18,529,  official: 17,204,  infectious: 18,529,  died: 22,  dead: 861

May 14:  real: 18,885,  official: 17,615,  infectious: 18,885,  died: 22,  dead: 883

May 15:  real: 19,268,  official: 18,016,  infectious: 19,268,  died: 24,  dead: 907

May 16:  real: 19,739,  official: 18,257,  infectious: 19,739,  died: 8,  dead: 915

May 17:  real: 20,143,  official: 18,529,  infectious: 20,143,  died: 10,  dead: 925

May 18:  real: 20,619,  official: 18,885,  infectious: 20,619,  died: 11,  dead: 936

May 19:  real: 20,931,  official: 19,268,  infectious: 20,931,  died: 12,  dead: 948

May 20:  real: 21,326,  official: 19,739,  infectious: 21,326,  died: 14,  dead: 962

May 21:  real: 21,631,  official: 20,143,  infectious: 21,631,  died: 10,  dead: 972

May 22:  real: 22,074,  official: 20,619,  infectious: 22,074,  died: 10,  dead: 982

May 23:  real: 22,473,  official: 20,931,  infectious: 22,473,  died: 11,  dead: 993

May 24:  real: 22,825,  official: 21,326,  infectious: 22,825,  died: 3,  dead: 996

May 25:  real: 23,155,  official: 21,631,  infectious: 23,155,  died: 11,  dead: 1,007

May 26:  real: 23,571,  official: 22,074,  infectious: 23,571,  died: 17,  dead: 1,024

May 27:  real: 23,786,  official: 22,473,  infectious: 23,786,  died: 4,  dead: 1,028

May 28:  real: 24,165,  official: 22,825,  infectious: 24,165,  died: 10,  dead: 1,038

May 29:  real: 24,395,  official: 23,155,  infectious: 24,395,  died: 13,  dead: 1,051

May 30:  real: 24,687,  official: 23,571,  infectious: 24,687,  died: 10,  dead: 1,061

May 31:  real: 25,048,  official: 23,786,  infectious: 25,048,  died: 3,  dead: 1,064

Jun  1:  real: 25,410,  official: 24,165,  infectious: 25,410,  died: 10,  dead: 1,074

Jun  2:  real: 25,986,  official: 24,395,  infectious: 25,986,  died: 18,  dead: 1,092

Jun  3:  real: 26,561,  official: 24,687,  infectious: 26,561,  died: 23,  dead: 1,115

Jun  4:  real: 27,160,  official: 25,048,  infectious: 27,160,  died: 2,  dead: 1,117

Jun  5:  real: 27,560,  official: 25,410,  infectious: 27,560,  died: 20,  dead: 1,137

Jun  6:  real: 27,842,  official: 25,986,  infectious: 27,842,  died: 16,  dead: 1,153

Jun  7:  real: 28,201,  official: 26,561,  infectious: 28,201,  died: 4,  dead: 1,157

Jun  8:  real: 28,577,  official: 27,160,  infectious: 28,577,  died: 9,  dead: 1,166

Jun  9:  real: 29,017,  official: 27,560,  infectious: 29,017,  died: 17,  dead: 1,183

Jun 10:  real: 29,392,  official: 27,842,  infectious: 29,392,  died: 23,  dead: 1,206

Jun 11:  real: 29,788,  official: 28,201,  infectious: 29,788,  died: 9,  dead: 1,215

Jun 12:  real: 30,195,  official: 28,577,  infectious: 30,195,  died: 7,  dead: 1,222

Jun 13:  real: 30,701,  official: 29,017,  infectious: 30,701,  died: 15,  dead: 1,237

Jun 14:  real: 31,015,  official: 29,392,  infectious: 31,015,  died: 10,  dead: 1,247

Jun 15:  real: 31,316,  official: 29,788,  infectious: 31,316,  died: 9,  dead: 1,256

Jun 16:  real: 31,620,  official: 30,195,  infectious: 31,620,  died: 16,  dead: 1,272

Jun 17:  real: 31,931,  official: 30,701,  infectious: 31,931,  died: 14,  dead: 1,286

Jun 18:  real: 32,227,  official: 31,015,  infectious: 32,227,  died: 30,  dead: 1,316

Jun 19:  real: 32,527,  official: 31,316,  infectious: 32,527,  died: 18,  dead: 1,334

Jun 20:  real: 32,821,  official: 31,620,  infectious: 32,821,  died: 12,  dead: 1,346

Jun 21:  real: 33,119,  official: 31,931,  infectious: 33,119,  died: 10,  dead: 1,356

Jun 22:  real: 33,395,  official: 32,227,  infectious: 33,395,  died: 3,  dead: 1,359

Jun 23:  real: 33,714,  official: 32,527,  infectious: 33,714,  died: 16,  dead: 1,375

Jun 24:  real: 33,907,  official: 32,821,  infectious: 33,907,  died: 21,  dead: 1,396

Jun 25:  real: 34,154,  official: 33,119,  infectious: 34,154,  died: 16,  dead: 1,412

Jun 26:  real: 34,393,  official: 33,395,  infectious: 34,393,  died: 17,  dead: 1,429

Jun 27:  real: 34,775,  official: 33,714,  infectious: 34,775,  died: 6,  dead: 1,435

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 34,823,  official: 33,907,  infectious: 5,632,  died: 3,  dead: 1,438

Jun 29:  real: 34,871,  official: 34,154,  infectious: 5,717,  died: 3,  dead: 1,441

Jun 30:  real: 34,917,  official: 34,393,  infectious: 5,412,  died: 3,  dead: 1,444

Jul  1:  real: 34,960,  official: 34,775,  infectious: 5,057,  died: 4,  dead: 1,448

Jul  2:  real: 35,000,  official: 34,823,  infectious: 4,750,  died: 2,  dead: 1,450

Jul  3:  real: 35,037,  official: 34,871,  infectious: 4,427,  died: 3,  dead: 1,453

Jul  4:  real: 35,072,  official: 34,917,  infectious: 4,089,  died: 3,  dead: 1,456

Jul  5:  real: 35,103,  official: 34,960,  infectious: 3,685,  died: 4,  dead: 1,460

Jul  6:  real: 35,132,  official: 35,000,  infectious: 3,426,  died: 0,  dead: 1,460

Jul  7:  real: 35,159,  official: 35,037,  infectious: 3,170,  died: 3,  dead: 1,463

Jul  8:  real: 35,184,  official: 35,072,  infectious: 2,896,  died: 3,  dead: 1,466

Jul  9:  real: 35,207,  official: 35,103,  infectious: 2,663,  died: 3,  dead: 1,469

Jul 10:  real: 35,228,  official: 35,132,  infectious: 2,441,  died: 4,  dead: 1,473

Jul 11:  real: 35,247,  official: 35,159,  infectious: 2,214,  died: 2,  dead: 1,475

Jul 12:  real: 35,264,  official: 35,184,  infectious: 1,990,  died: 3,  dead: 1,478

Jul 13:  real: 35,279,  official: 35,207,  infectious: 1,763,  died: 3,  dead: 1,481

Jul 14:  real: 35,292,  official: 35,228,  infectious: 1,553,  died: 4,  dead: 1,485

Jul 15:  real: 35,303,  official: 35,247,  infectious: 1,306,  died: 1,  dead: 1,486

Jul 16:  real: 35,313,  official: 35,264,  infectious: 1,157,  died: 1,  dead: 1,487

Jul 17:  real: 35,321,  official: 35,279,  infectious: 964,  died: 1,  dead: 1,488

Jul 18:  real: 35,328,  official: 35,292,  infectious: 777,  died: 1,  dead: 1,489

Jul 19:  real: 35,332,  official: 35,303,  infectious: 473,  died: 1,  dead: 1,490

Jul 20:  real: 35,336,  official: 35,313,  infectious: 437,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 21:  real: 35,339,  official: 35,321,  infectious: 399,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 22:  real: 35,342,  official: 35,328,  infectious: 363,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 23:  real: 35,345,  official: 35,332,  infectious: 329,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 24:  real: 35,348,  official: 35,336,  infectious: 297,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 25:  real: 35,350,  official: 35,339,  infectious: 268,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 26:  real: 35,352,  official: 35,342,  infectious: 241,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 27:  real: 35,354,  official: 35,345,  infectious: 216,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 28:  real: 35,356,  official: 35,348,  infectious: 193,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 29:  real: 35,357,  official: 35,350,  infectious: 172,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 30:  real: 35,358,  official: 35,352,  infectious: 153,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Jul 31:  real: 35,359,  official: 35,354,  infectious: 135,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  1:  real: 35,360,  official: 35,356,  infectious: 119,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  2:  real: 35,361,  official: 35,357,  infectious: 103,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  3:  real: 35,362,  official: 35,358,  infectious: 89,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  4:  real: 35,363,  official: 35,359,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  5:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,360,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  6:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,361,  infectious: 57,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  7:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,362,  infectious: 49,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  8:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,363,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug  9:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 10:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 11:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 12:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 13:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 14:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 15:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 16:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 17:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 18:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 19:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 20:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 21:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 22:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 23:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 24:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 25:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 26:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 27:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 28:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 29:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 30:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Aug 31:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  1:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  2:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  3:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  4:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  5:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  6:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  7:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  8:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep  9:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 10:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 11:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 12:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 13:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 14:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 15:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 16:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 17:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 18:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 19:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 20:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 21:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 22:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 23:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 24:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 25:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 26:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 27:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 28:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 29:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Sep 30:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  1:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  2:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  3:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  4:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  5:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  6:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  7:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  8:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct  9:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 10:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 11:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 12:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 13:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 14:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 15:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 16:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 17:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 18:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 19:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 20:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 21:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 22:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 23:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 24:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 25:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 26:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 27:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 28:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 29:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 30:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Oct 31:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  1:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  2:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  3:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  4:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  5:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  6:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  7:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  8:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov  9:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 10:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 11:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 12:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 13:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 14:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 15:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 16:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 17:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 18:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 19:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 20:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 21:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 22:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 23:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 24:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 25:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 26:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 27:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 28:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 29:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Nov 30:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  1:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  2:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  3:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  4:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  5:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  6:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  7:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  8:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec  9:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 10:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 11:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 12:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 13:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 14:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 15:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 16:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 17:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 18:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 19:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 20:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 21:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 22:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 23:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 24:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 25:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 26:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 27:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 28:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 29:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 30:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

Dec 31:  real: 35,364,  official: 35,364,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,490

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          4:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,490:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,490:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.85%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0085
Official uninf: 29,965,225 / Adult Pop.: 30,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.88%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0012
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.85%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0085