COVID-19 Forecast for Germany, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
925 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Germany HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 925 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Germany run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Germany are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          8:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      9,116:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      9,116:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Germany COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.002, at 100.25% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 545,  official: 130,  infectious: 545,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 670,  official: 165,  infectious: 670,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 800,  official: 203,  infectious: 800,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 1,040,  official: 262,  infectious: 1,040,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 1,224,  official: 545,  infectious: 1,224,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 1,565,  official: 670,  infectious: 1,565,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 1,966,  official: 800,  infectious: 1,966,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 2,745,  official: 1,040,  infectious: 2,745,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 3,675,  official: 1,224,  infectious: 3,675,  died: 2,  dead: 2

Mar 10:  real: 4,599,  official: 1,565,  infectious: 4,599,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 11:  real: 5,813,  official: 1,966,  infectious: 5,813,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 12:  real: 7,272,  official: 2,745,  infectious: 7,272,  died: 3,  dead: 6

Mar 13:  real: 9,367,  official: 3,675,  infectious: 9,367,  died: 2,  dead: 8

Mar 14:  real: 12,327,  official: 4,599,  infectious: 12,327,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Mar 15:  real: 15,320,  official: 5,813,  infectious: 15,320,  died: 4,  dead: 13

Mar 16:  real: 19,848,  official: 7,272,  infectious: 19,848,  died: 4,  dead: 17

Mar 17:  real: 22,364,  official: 9,367,  infectious: 22,364,  died: 9,  dead: 26

Mar 18:  real: 24,873,  official: 12,327,  infectious: 24,873,  died: 2,  dead: 28

Mar 19:  real: 29,056,  official: 15,320,  infectious: 29,056,  died: 16,  dead: 44

Mar 20:  real: 32,991,  official: 19,848,  infectious: 32,991,  died: 24,  dead: 68

Mar 21:  real: 37,323,  official: 22,364,  infectious: 37,323,  died: 16,  dead: 84

Mar 22:  real: 43,938,  official: 24,873,  infectious: 43,938,  died: 10,  dead: 94

Mar 23:  real: 50,871,  official: 29,056,  infectious: 50,871,  died: 29,  dead: 123

Mar 24:  real: 57,695,  official: 32,991,  infectious: 57,695,  died: 36,  dead: 159

Mar 25:  real: 62,435,  official: 37,323,  infectious: 62,435,  died: 47,  dead: 206

Mar 26:  real: 66,885,  official: 43,938,  infectious: 66,885,  died: 61,  dead: 267

Mar 27:  real: 71,808,  official: 50,871,  infectious: 71,808,  died: 84,  dead: 351

Mar 28:  real: 77,981,  official: 57,695,  infectious: 77,981,  died: 82,  dead: 433

Mar 29:  real: 84,794,  official: 62,435,  infectious: 84,794,  died: 108,  dead: 541

Mar 30:  real: 91,159,  official: 66,885,  infectious: 91,159,  died: 104,  dead: 645

Mar 31:  real: 96,092,  official: 71,808,  infectious: 96,092,  died: 130,  dead: 775

Apr  1:  real: 100,123,  official: 77,981,  infectious: 100,123,  died: 156,  dead: 931

Apr  2:  real: 103,375,  official: 84,794,  infectious: 103,375,  died: 176,  dead: 1,107

Apr  3:  real: 107,663,  official: 91,159,  infectious: 107,663,  died: 168,  dead: 1,275

Apr  4:  real: 113,296,  official: 96,092,  infectious: 113,296,  died: 169,  dead: 1,444

Apr  5:  real: 118,235,  official: 100,123,  infectious: 118,235,  died: 140,  dead: 1,584

Apr  6:  real: 122,171,  official: 103,375,  infectious: 122,171,  died: 226,  dead: 1,810

Apr  7:  real: 125,452,  official: 107,663,  infectious: 125,452,  died: 206,  dead: 2,016

Apr  8:  real: 127,854,  official: 113,296,  infectious: 127,854,  died: 333,  dead: 2,349

Apr  9:  real: 130,072,  official: 118,235,  infectious: 130,072,  died: 258,  dead: 2,607

Apr 10:  real: 132,210,  official: 122,171,  infectious: 132,210,  died: 129,  dead: 2,736

Apr 11:  real: 134,753,  official: 125,452,  infectious: 134,753,  died: 135,  dead: 2,871

Apr 12:  real: 137,698,  official: 127,854,  infectious: 137,698,  died: 151,  dead: 3,022

Apr 13:  real: 141,397,  official: 130,072,  infectious: 141,397,  died: 172,  dead: 3,194

Apr 14:  real: 143,724,  official: 132,210,  infectious: 143,724,  died: 301,  dead: 3,495

Apr 15:  real: 145,742,  official: 134,753,  infectious: 145,742,  died: 309,  dead: 3,804

Apr 16:  real: 147,065,  official: 137,698,  infectious: 147,065,  died: 248,  dead: 4,052

Apr 17:  real: 148,453,  official: 141,397,  infectious: 148,453,  died: 300,  dead: 4,352

Apr 18:  real: 150,648,  official: 143,724,  infectious: 150,648,  died: 186,  dead: 4,538

Apr 19:  real: 153,129,  official: 145,742,  infectious: 153,129,  died: 104,  dead: 4,642

Apr 20:  real: 154,999,  official: 147,065,  infectious: 154,999,  died: 220,  dead: 4,862

Apr 21:  real: 156,513,  official: 148,453,  infectious: 156,513,  died: 224,  dead: 5,086

Apr 22:  real: 157,770,  official: 150,648,  infectious: 157,770,  died: 229,  dead: 5,315

Apr 23:  real: 158,758,  official: 153,129,  infectious: 158,758,  died: 260,  dead: 5,575

Apr 24:  real: 159,912,  official: 154,999,  infectious: 159,912,  died: 185,  dead: 5,760

Apr 25:  real: 161,539,  official: 156,513,  infectious: 161,539,  died: 117,  dead: 5,877

Apr 26:  real: 163,009,  official: 157,770,  infectious: 163,009,  died: 99,  dead: 5,976

Apr 27:  real: 164,077,  official: 158,758,  infectious: 164,077,  died: 150,  dead: 6,126

Apr 28:  real: 164,967,  official: 159,912,  infectious: 164,967,  died: 188,  dead: 6,314

Apr 29:  real: 165,664,  official: 161,539,  infectious: 165,664,  died: 153,  dead: 6,467

Apr 30:  real: 166,152,  official: 163,009,  infectious: 166,152,  died: 156,  dead: 6,623

May  1:  real: 167,007,  official: 164,077,  infectious: 167,007,  died: 113,  dead: 6,736

May  2:  real: 168,162,  official: 164,967,  infectious: 168,162,  died: 76,  dead: 6,812

May  3:  real: 169,430,  official: 165,664,  infectious: 169,430,  died: 54,  dead: 6,866

May  4:  real: 170,588,  official: 166,152,  infectious: 170,588,  died: 127,  dead: 6,993

May  5:  real: 171,324,  official: 167,007,  infectious: 171,324,  died: 0,  dead: 6,993

May  6:  real: 171,879,  official: 168,162,  infectious: 171,879,  died: 282,  dead: 7,275

May  7:  real: 172,576,  official: 169,430,  infectious: 172,576,  died: 117,  dead: 7,392

May  8:  real: 173,171,  official: 170,588,  infectious: 173,171,  died: 118,  dead: 7,510

May  9:  real: 174,098,  official: 171,324,  infectious: 174,098,  died: 39,  dead: 7,549

May 10:  real: 174,975,  official: 171,879,  infectious: 174,975,  died: 20,  dead: 7,569

May 11:  real: 175,699,  official: 172,576,  infectious: 175,699,  died: 92,  dead: 7,661

May 12:  real: 176,244,  official: 173,171,  infectious: 176,244,  died: 77,  dead: 7,738

May 13:  real: 176,651,  official: 174,098,  infectious: 176,651,  died: 123,  dead: 7,861

May 14:  real: 177,289,  official: 174,975,  infectious: 177,289,  died: 67,  dead: 7,928

May 15:  real: 177,827,  official: 175,699,  infectious: 177,827,  died: 73,  dead: 8,001

May 16:  real: 178,531,  official: 176,244,  infectious: 178,531,  died: 26,  dead: 8,027

May 17:  real: 179,021,  official: 176,651,  infectious: 179,021,  died: 22,  dead: 8,049

May 18:  real: 179,713,  official: 177,289,  infectious: 179,713,  died: 74,  dead: 8,123

May 19:  real: 179,986,  official: 177,827,  infectious: 179,986,  died: 70,  dead: 8,193

May 20:  real: 180,328,  official: 178,531,  infectious: 180,328,  died: 77,  dead: 8,270

May 21:  real: 180,789,  official: 179,021,  infectious: 180,789,  died: 39,  dead: 8,309

May 22:  real: 181,288,  official: 179,713,  infectious: 181,288,  died: 43,  dead: 8,352

May 23:  real: 181,895,  official: 179,986,  infectious: 181,895,  died: 14,  dead: 8,366

May 24:  real: 182,452,  official: 180,328,  infectious: 182,452,  died: 5,  dead: 8,371

May 25:  real: 183,019,  official: 180,789,  infectious: 183,019,  died: 57,  dead: 8,428

May 26:  real: 183,294,  official: 181,288,  infectious: 183,294,  died: 70,  dead: 8,498

May 27:  real: 183,494,  official: 181,895,  infectious: 183,494,  died: 35,  dead: 8,533

May 28:  real: 183,765,  official: 182,452,  infectious: 183,765,  died: 37,  dead: 8,570

May 29:  real: 184,091,  official: 183,019,  infectious: 184,091,  died: 24,  dead: 8,594

May 30:  real: 184,425,  official: 183,294,  infectious: 184,425,  died: 6,  dead: 8,600

May 31:  real: 184,923,  official: 183,494,  infectious: 184,923,  died: 5,  dead: 8,605

Jun  1:  real: 185,414,  official: 183,765,  infectious: 185,414,  died: 13,  dead: 8,618

Jun  2:  real: 185,696,  official: 184,091,  infectious: 185,696,  died: 56,  dead: 8,674

Jun  3:  real: 185,869,  official: 184,425,  infectious: 185,869,  died: 25,  dead: 8,699

Jun  4:  real: 186,205,  official: 184,923,  infectious: 186,205,  died: 37,  dead: 8,736

Jun  5:  real: 186,516,  official: 185,414,  infectious: 186,516,  died: 27,  dead: 8,763

Jun  6:  real: 186,510,  official: 185,696,  infectious: 186,510,  died: 6,  dead: 8,769

Jun  7:  real: 186,795,  official: 185,869,  infectious: 186,795,  died: 7,  dead: 8,776

Jun  8:  real: 187,251,  official: 186,205,  infectious: 187,251,  died: 7,  dead: 8,783

Jun  9:  real: 187,423,  official: 186,516,  infectious: 187,423,  died: 48,  dead: 8,831

Jun 10:  real: 187,671,  official: 186,510,  infectious: 187,671,  died: 13,  dead: 8,844

Jun 11:  real: 188,044,  official: 186,795,  infectious: 188,044,  died: 7,  dead: 8,851

Jun 12:  real: 188,382,  official: 187,251,  infectious: 188,382,  died: 12,  dead: 8,863

Jun 13:  real: 189,504,  official: 187,423,  infectious: 189,504,  died: 4,  dead: 8,867

Jun 14:  real: 190,126,  official: 187,671,  infectious: 190,126,  died: 3,  dead: 8,870

Jun 15:  real: 190,660,  official: 188,044,  infectious: 190,660,  died: 15,  dead: 8,885

Jun 16:  real: 191,216,  official: 188,382,  infectious: 191,216,  died: 25,  dead: 8,910

Jun 17:  real: 191,575,  official: 189,504,  infectious: 191,575,  died: 17,  dead: 8,927

Jun 18:  real: 192,119,  official: 190,126,  infectious: 192,119,  died: 19,  dead: 8,946

Jun 19:  real: 192,778,  official: 190,660,  infectious: 192,778,  died: 14,  dead: 8,960

Jun 20:  real: 193,254,  official: 191,216,  infectious: 193,254,  died: 1,  dead: 8,961

Jun 21:  real: 193,785,  official: 191,575,  infectious: 193,785,  died: 1,  dead: 8,962

Jun 22:  real: 194,399,  official: 192,119,  infectious: 194,399,  died: 7,  dead: 8,969

Jun 23:  real: 194,689,  official: 192,778,  infectious: 194,689,  died: 17,  dead: 8,986

Jun 24:  real: 194,864,  official: 193,254,  infectious: 194,864,  died: 17,  dead: 9,003

Jun 25:  real: 195,392,  official: 193,785,  infectious: 195,392,  died: 9,  dead: 9,012

Jun 26:  real: 195,832,  official: 194,399,  infectious: 195,832,  died: 14,  dead: 9,026

Jun 27:  real: 196,324,  official: 194,689,  infectious: 196,324,  died: 0,  dead: 9,026

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 196,344,  official: 194,864,  infectious: 8,112,  died: 6,  dead: 9,032

Jun 29:  real: 196,365,  official: 195,392,  infectious: 8,363,  died: 7,  dead: 9,039

Jun 30:  real: 196,385,  official: 195,832,  infectious: 7,906,  died: 8,  dead: 9,047

Jul  1:  real: 196,404,  official: 196,324,  infectious: 7,705,  died: 3,  dead: 9,050

Jul  2:  real: 196,423,  official: 196,344,  infectious: 7,431,  died: 2,  dead: 9,052

Jul  3:  real: 196,441,  official: 196,365,  infectious: 7,052,  died: 7,  dead: 9,059

Jul  4:  real: 196,458,  official: 196,385,  infectious: 6,752,  died: 6,  dead: 9,065

Jul  5:  real: 196,473,  official: 196,404,  infectious: 5,832,  died: 6,  dead: 9,071

Jul  6:  real: 196,486,  official: 196,423,  infectious: 5,260,  died: 0,  dead: 9,071

Jul  7:  real: 196,498,  official: 196,441,  infectious: 4,769,  died: 6,  dead: 9,077

Jul  8:  real: 196,509,  official: 196,458,  infectious: 4,262,  died: 7,  dead: 9,084

Jul  9:  real: 196,519,  official: 196,473,  infectious: 3,983,  died: 8,  dead: 9,092

Jul 10:  real: 196,528,  official: 196,486,  infectious: 3,553,  died: 3,  dead: 9,095

Jul 11:  real: 196,536,  official: 196,498,  infectious: 3,032,  died: 2,  dead: 9,097

Jul 12:  real: 196,543,  official: 196,509,  infectious: 2,657,  died: 7,  dead: 9,104

Jul 13:  real: 196,549,  official: 196,519,  infectious: 2,237,  died: 6,  dead: 9,110

Jul 14:  real: 196,553,  official: 196,528,  infectious: 1,749,  died: 6,  dead: 9,116

Jul 15:  real: 196,557,  official: 196,536,  infectious: 1,520,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 16:  real: 196,560,  official: 196,543,  infectious: 1,381,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 17:  real: 196,562,  official: 196,549,  infectious: 960,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 18:  real: 196,564,  official: 196,553,  infectious: 609,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 19:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,557,  infectious: 215,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 20:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,560,  infectious: 199,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 21:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,562,  infectious: 182,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 22:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,564,  infectious: 164,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 23:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 146,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 24:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 129,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 25:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 113,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 26:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 27:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 28:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 73,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 29:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 30:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Jul 31:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  1:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  2:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  3:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  4:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  5:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  6:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  7:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  8:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug  9:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 10:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 11:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 12:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 13:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 14:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 15:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 16:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 17:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 18:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 19:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 20:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 21:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 22:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 23:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 24:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 25:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 26:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 27:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 28:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 29:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 30:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Aug 31:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  1:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  2:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  3:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  4:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  5:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  6:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  7:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  8:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep  9:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 10:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 11:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 12:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 13:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 14:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 15:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 16:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 17:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 18:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 19:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 20:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 21:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 22:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 23:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 24:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 25:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 26:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 27:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 28:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 29:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Sep 30:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  1:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  2:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  3:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  4:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  5:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  6:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  7:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  8:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct  9:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 10:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 11:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 12:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 13:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 14:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 15:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 16:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 17:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 18:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 19:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 20:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 21:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 22:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 23:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 24:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 25:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 26:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 27:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 28:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 29:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 30:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Oct 31:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  1:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  2:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  3:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  4:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  5:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  6:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  7:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  8:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov  9:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 10:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 11:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 12:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 13:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 14:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 15:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 16:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 17:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 18:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 19:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 20:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 21:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 22:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 23:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 24:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 25:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 26:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 27:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 28:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 29:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Nov 30:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  1:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  2:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  3:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  4:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  5:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  6:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  7:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  8:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec  9:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 10:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 11:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 12:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 13:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 14:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 15:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 16:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 17:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 18:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 19:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 20:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 21:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 22:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 23:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 24:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 25:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 26:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 27:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 28:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 29:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 30:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

Dec 31:  real: 196,565,  official: 196,565,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,116

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          8:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      9,116:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      9,116:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.25%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0025
Official uninf: 69,803,676 / Adult Pop.: 70,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.72%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0028
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.25%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0025