COVID-19 Forecast for Bangladesh, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
86 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Bangladesh HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 86 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Bangladesh run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Bangladesh are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       500 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        151:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
      2,172:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      2,318:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      4,490:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Bangladesh COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.027, at 102.70% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 3,  official: 0,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 3,  official: 0,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 3,  official: 0,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 3,  official: 0,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 3,  official: 3,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 3,  official: 3,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 5,  official: 3,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 5,  official: 3,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 8,  official: 3,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 10,  official: 3,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 14,  official: 5,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 18,  official: 5,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 20,  official: 8,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 24,  official: 10,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 27,  official: 14,  infectious: 27,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 19:  real: 33,  official: 18,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 20:  real: 39,  official: 20,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 21:  real: 39,  official: 24,  infectious: 39,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 22:  real: 44,  official: 27,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 23:  real: 48,  official: 33,  infectious: 48,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 24:  real: 48,  official: 39,  infectious: 48,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 25:  real: 48,  official: 39,  infectious: 48,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Mar 26:  real: 49,  official: 44,  infectious: 49,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 27:  real: 51,  official: 48,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 28:  real: 54,  official: 48,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 29:  real: 56,  official: 48,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 30:  real: 61,  official: 49,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 31:  real: 70,  official: 51,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Apr  1:  real: 88,  official: 54,  infectious: 88,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Apr  2:  real: 123,  official: 56,  infectious: 123,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Apr  3:  real: 164,  official: 61,  infectious: 164,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Apr  4:  real: 218,  official: 70,  infectious: 218,  died: 2,  dead: 8

Apr  5:  real: 330,  official: 88,  infectious: 330,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Apr  6:  real: 424,  official: 123,  infectious: 424,  died: 3,  dead: 12

Apr  7:  real: 482,  official: 164,  infectious: 482,  died: 5,  dead: 17

Apr  8:  real: 621,  official: 218,  infectious: 621,  died: 3,  dead: 20

Apr  9:  real: 803,  official: 330,  infectious: 803,  died: 1,  dead: 21

Apr 10:  real: 1,012,  official: 424,  infectious: 1,012,  died: 6,  dead: 27

Apr 11:  real: 1,231,  official: 482,  infectious: 1,231,  died: 3,  dead: 30

Apr 12:  real: 1,572,  official: 621,  infectious: 1,572,  died: 4,  dead: 34

Apr 13:  real: 1,838,  official: 803,  infectious: 1,838,  died: 5,  dead: 39

Apr 14:  real: 2,144,  official: 1,012,  infectious: 2,144,  died: 7,  dead: 46

Apr 15:  real: 2,456,  official: 1,231,  infectious: 2,456,  died: 4,  dead: 50

Apr 16:  real: 2,948,  official: 1,572,  infectious: 2,948,  died: 10,  dead: 60

Apr 17:  real: 3,382,  official: 1,838,  infectious: 3,382,  died: 15,  dead: 75

Apr 18:  real: 3,772,  official: 2,144,  infectious: 3,772,  died: 9,  dead: 84

Apr 19:  real: 4,186,  official: 2,456,  infectious: 4,186,  died: 7,  dead: 91

Apr 20:  real: 4,689,  official: 2,948,  infectious: 4,689,  died: 10,  dead: 101

Apr 21:  real: 4,998,  official: 3,382,  infectious: 4,998,  died: 9,  dead: 110

Apr 22:  real: 5,416,  official: 3,772,  infectious: 5,416,  died: 10,  dead: 120

Apr 23:  real: 5,913,  official: 4,186,  infectious: 5,913,  died: 7,  dead: 127

Apr 24:  real: 6,462,  official: 4,689,  infectious: 6,462,  died: 4,  dead: 131

Apr 25:  real: 7,103,  official: 4,998,  infectious: 7,103,  died: 9,  dead: 140

Apr 26:  real: 7,667,  official: 5,416,  infectious: 7,667,  died: 5,  dead: 145

Apr 27:  real: 8,238,  official: 5,913,  infectious: 8,238,  died: 7,  dead: 152

Apr 28:  real: 8,790,  official: 6,462,  infectious: 8,790,  died: 3,  dead: 155

Apr 29:  real: 9,455,  official: 7,103,  infectious: 9,455,  died: 8,  dead: 163

Apr 30:  real: 10,143,  official: 7,667,  infectious: 10,143,  died: 5,  dead: 168

May  1:  real: 10,929,  official: 8,238,  infectious: 10,929,  died: 2,  dead: 170

May  2:  real: 11,719,  official: 8,790,  infectious: 11,719,  died: 5,  dead: 175

May  3:  real: 12,425,  official: 9,455,  infectious: 12,425,  died: 2,  dead: 177

May  4:  real: 13,134,  official: 10,143,  infectious: 13,134,  died: 5,  dead: 182

May  5:  real: 13,770,  official: 10,929,  infectious: 13,770,  died: 1,  dead: 183

May  6:  real: 14,657,  official: 11,719,  infectious: 14,657,  died: 3,  dead: 186

May  7:  real: 15,691,  official: 12,425,  infectious: 15,691,  died: 13,  dead: 199

May  8:  real: 16,660,  official: 13,134,  infectious: 16,660,  died: 7,  dead: 206

May  9:  real: 17,822,  official: 13,770,  infectious: 17,822,  died: 8,  dead: 214

May 10:  real: 18,863,  official: 14,657,  infectious: 18,863,  died: 14,  dead: 228

May 11:  real: 20,065,  official: 15,691,  infectious: 20,065,  died: 11,  dead: 239

May 12:  real: 20,995,  official: 16,660,  infectious: 20,995,  died: 11,  dead: 250

May 13:  real: 22,268,  official: 17,822,  infectious: 22,268,  died: 19,  dead: 269

May 14:  real: 23,870,  official: 18,863,  infectious: 23,870,  died: 14,  dead: 283

May 15:  real: 25,121,  official: 20,065,  infectious: 25,121,  died: 15,  dead: 298

May 16:  real: 26,738,  official: 20,995,  infectious: 26,738,  died: 16,  dead: 314

May 17:  real: 28,511,  official: 22,268,  infectious: 28,511,  died: 14,  dead: 328

May 18:  real: 30,205,  official: 23,870,  infectious: 30,205,  died: 21,  dead: 349

May 19:  real: 32,078,  official: 25,121,  infectious: 32,078,  died: 21,  dead: 370

May 20:  real: 33,610,  official: 26,738,  infectious: 33,610,  died: 16,  dead: 386

May 21:  real: 35,585,  official: 28,511,  infectious: 35,585,  died: 22,  dead: 408

May 22:  real: 36,751,  official: 30,205,  infectious: 36,751,  died: 24,  dead: 432

May 23:  real: 38,292,  official: 32,078,  infectious: 38,292,  died: 20,  dead: 452

May 24:  real: 40,321,  official: 33,610,  infectious: 40,321,  died: 28,  dead: 480

May 25:  real: 42,844,  official: 35,585,  infectious: 42,844,  died: 21,  dead: 501

May 26:  real: 44,608,  official: 36,751,  infectious: 44,608,  died: 21,  dead: 522

May 27:  real: 47,153,  official: 38,292,  infectious: 47,153,  died: 22,  dead: 544

May 28:  real: 49,534,  official: 40,321,  infectious: 49,534,  died: 15,  dead: 559

May 29:  real: 52,445,  official: 42,844,  infectious: 52,445,  died: 23,  dead: 582

May 30:  real: 55,140,  official: 44,608,  infectious: 55,140,  died: 28,  dead: 610

May 31:  real: 57,563,  official: 47,153,  infectious: 57,563,  died: 40,  dead: 650

Jun  1:  real: 60,391,  official: 49,534,  infectious: 60,391,  died: 22,  dead: 672

Jun  2:  real: 63,026,  official: 52,445,  infectious: 63,026,  died: 37,  dead: 709

Jun  3:  real: 65,769,  official: 55,140,  infectious: 65,769,  died: 37,  dead: 746

Jun  4:  real: 68,504,  official: 57,563,  infectious: 68,504,  died: 35,  dead: 781

Jun  5:  real: 71,675,  official: 60,391,  infectious: 71,675,  died: 30,  dead: 811

Jun  6:  real: 74,865,  official: 63,026,  infectious: 74,865,  died: 35,  dead: 846

Jun  7:  real: 78,052,  official: 65,769,  infectious: 78,052,  died: 42,  dead: 888

Jun  8:  real: 81,523,  official: 68,504,  infectious: 81,523,  died: 42,  dead: 930

Jun  9:  real: 84,379,  official: 71,675,  infectious: 84,379,  died: 45,  dead: 975

Jun 10:  real: 87,520,  official: 74,865,  infectious: 87,520,  died: 37,  dead: 1,012

Jun 11:  real: 90,619,  official: 78,052,  infectious: 90,619,  died: 37,  dead: 1,049

Jun 12:  real: 94,481,  official: 81,523,  infectious: 94,481,  died: 46,  dead: 1,095

Jun 13:  real: 98,489,  official: 84,379,  infectious: 98,489,  died: 44,  dead: 1,139

Jun 14:  real: 102,292,  official: 87,520,  infectious: 102,292,  died: 32,  dead: 1,171

Jun 15:  real: 105,535,  official: 90,619,  infectious: 105,535,  died: 38,  dead: 1,209

Jun 16:  real: 108,775,  official: 94,481,  infectious: 108,775,  died: 53,  dead: 1,262

Jun 17:  real: 112,306,  official: 98,489,  infectious: 112,306,  died: 43,  dead: 1,305

Jun 18:  real: 115,786,  official: 102,292,  infectious: 115,786,  died: 38,  dead: 1,343

Jun 19:  real: 119,198,  official: 105,535,  infectious: 119,198,  died: 45,  dead: 1,388

Jun 20:  real: 122,660,  official: 108,775,  infectious: 122,660,  died: 37,  dead: 1,425

Jun 21:  real: 126,606,  official: 112,306,  infectious: 126,606,  died: 39,  dead: 1,464

Jun 22:  real: 130,474,  official: 115,786,  infectious: 130,474,  died: 38,  dead: 1,502

Jun 23:  real: 133,978,  official: 119,198,  infectious: 133,978,  died: 43,  dead: 1,545

Jun 24:  real: 137,787,  official: 122,660,  infectious: 137,787,  died: 37,  dead: 1,582

Jun 25:  real: 141,801,  official: 126,606,  infectious: 141,801,  died: 39,  dead: 1,621

Jun 26:  real: 145,483,  official: 130,474,  infectious: 145,483,  died: 40,  dead: 1,661

Jun 27:  real: 149,258,  official: 133,978,  infectious: 149,258,  died: 34,  dead: 1,695

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 150,923,  official: 137,787,  infectious: 61,609,  died: 48,  dead: 1,743


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 152,618,  official: 141,801,  infectious: 62,737,  died: 55,  dead: 1,798

Jun 30:  real: 154,269,  official: 145,483,  infectious: 61,116,  died: 53,  dead: 1,851

Jul  1:  real: 155,890,  official: 149,258,  infectious: 60,009,  died: 48,  dead: 1,899

Jul  2:  real: 157,472,  official: 150,923,  infectious: 58,560,  died: 53,  dead: 1,952

Jul  3:  real: 159,013,  official: 152,618,  infectious: 57,037,  died: 144,  dead: 2,096

Jul  4:  real: 160,496,  official: 154,269,  infectious: 54,906,  died: 151,  dead: 2,247

Jul  5:  real: 161,916,  official: 155,890,  infectious: 52,575,  died: 150,  dead: 2,397

Jul  6:  real: 163,276,  official: 157,472,  infectious: 50,326,  died: 89,  dead: 2,486

Jul  7:  real: 164,586,  official: 159,013,  infectious: 48,505,  died: 97,  dead: 2,583

Jul  8:  real: 165,845,  official: 160,496,  infectious: 46,607,  died: 102,  dead: 2,685

Jul  9:  real: 167,054,  official: 161,916,  infectious: 44,751,  died: 93,  dead: 2,778

Jul 10:  real: 168,212,  official: 163,276,  infectious: 42,876,  died: 96,  dead: 2,874

Jul 11:  real: 169,320,  official: 164,586,  infectious: 41,026,  died: 84,  dead: 2,958

Jul 12:  real: 170,376,  official: 165,845,  infectious: 39,086,  died: 86,  dead: 3,044

Jul 13:  real: 171,368,  official: 167,054,  infectious: 36,716,  died: 84,  dead: 3,128

Jul 14:  real: 172,296,  official: 168,212,  infectious: 34,365,  died: 82,  dead: 3,210

Jul 15:  real: 173,167,  official: 169,320,  infectious: 32,253,  died: 80,  dead: 3,290

Jul 16:  real: 173,973,  official: 170,376,  infectious: 29,844,  died: 78,  dead: 3,368

Jul 17:  real: 174,708,  official: 171,368,  infectious: 27,226,  died: 75,  dead: 3,443

Jul 18:  real: 175,378,  official: 172,296,  infectious: 24,817,  died: 72,  dead: 3,515

Jul 19:  real: 175,980,  official: 173,167,  infectious: 22,275,  died: 69,  dead: 3,584

Jul 20:  real: 176,557,  official: 173,973,  infectious: 21,366,  died: 66,  dead: 3,650

Jul 21:  real: 177,107,  official: 174,708,  infectious: 20,375,  died: 64,  dead: 3,714

Jul 22:  real: 177,631,  official: 175,378,  infectious: 19,404,  died: 61,  dead: 3,775

Jul 23:  real: 178,129,  official: 175,980,  infectious: 18,440,  died: 59,  dead: 3,834

Jul 24:  real: 178,602,  official: 176,557,  infectious: 17,494,  died: 56,  dead: 3,890

Jul 25:  real: 179,050,  official: 177,107,  infectious: 16,567,  died: 53,  dead: 3,943

Jul 26:  real: 179,473,  official: 177,631,  infectious: 15,673,  died: 50,  dead: 3,993

Jul 27:  real: 179,873,  official: 178,129,  infectious: 14,817,  died: 47,  dead: 4,040

Jul 28:  real: 180,251,  official: 178,602,  infectious: 13,998,  died: 44,  dead: 4,084

Jul 29:  real: 180,608,  official: 179,050,  infectious: 13,209,  died: 41,  dead: 4,125

Jul 30:  real: 180,944,  official: 179,473,  infectious: 12,453,  died: 37,  dead: 4,162


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 31:  real: 181,261,  official: 179,873,  infectious: 11,723,  died: 34,  dead: 4,196

Aug  1:  real: 181,558,  official: 180,251,  infectious: 10,995,  died: 30,  dead: 4,226

Aug  2:  real: 181,836,  official: 180,608,  infectious: 10,293,  died: 29,  dead: 4,255

Aug  3:  real: 182,096,  official: 180,944,  infectious: 9,618,  died: 28,  dead: 4,283

Aug  4:  real: 182,339,  official: 181,261,  infectious: 9,009,  died: 0,  dead: 4,283

Aug  5:  real: 182,567,  official: 181,558,  infectious: 8,439,  died: 0,  dead: 4,283

Aug  6:  real: 182,780,  official: 181,836,  infectious: 7,901,  died: 0,  dead: 4,283

Aug  7:  real: 182,980,  official: 182,096,  infectious: 7,406,  died: 0,  dead: 4,283

Aug  8:  real: 183,168,  official: 182,339,  infectious: 6,956,  died: 14,  dead: 4,297

Aug  9:  real: 183,345,  official: 182,567,  infectious: 6,549,  died: 13,  dead: 4,310

Aug 10:  real: 183,512,  official: 182,780,  infectious: 6,188,  died: 13,  dead: 4,323

Aug 11:  real: 183,670,  official: 182,980,  infectious: 5,840,  died: 12,  dead: 4,335

Aug 12:  real: 183,819,  official: 183,168,  infectious: 5,508,  died: 11,  dead: 4,346

Aug 13:  real: 183,959,  official: 183,345,  infectious: 5,192,  died: 11,  dead: 4,357

Aug 14:  real: 184,091,  official: 183,512,  infectious: 4,892,  died: 10,  dead: 4,367

Aug 15:  real: 184,215,  official: 183,670,  infectious: 4,606,  died: 9,  dead: 4,376

Aug 16:  real: 184,332,  official: 183,819,  infectious: 4,335,  died: 9,  dead: 4,385

Aug 17:  real: 184,442,  official: 183,959,  infectious: 4,079,  died: 8,  dead: 4,393

Aug 18:  real: 184,546,  official: 184,091,  infectious: 3,837,  died: 8,  dead: 4,401

Aug 19:  real: 184,643,  official: 184,215,  infectious: 3,607,  died: 7,  dead: 4,408

Aug 20:  real: 184,735,  official: 184,332,  infectious: 3,391,  died: 7,  dead: 4,415

Aug 21:  real: 184,821,  official: 184,442,  infectious: 3,187,  died: 6,  dead: 4,421

Aug 22:  real: 184,902,  official: 184,546,  infectious: 2,995,  died: 6,  dead: 4,427

Aug 23:  real: 184,978,  official: 184,643,  infectious: 2,814,  died: 5,  dead: 4,432

Aug 24:  real: 185,049,  official: 184,735,  infectious: 2,646,  died: 5,  dead: 4,437

Aug 25:  real: 185,116,  official: 184,821,  infectious: 2,488,  died: 4,  dead: 4,441

Aug 26:  real: 185,179,  official: 184,902,  infectious: 2,341,  died: 4,  dead: 4,445

Aug 27:  real: 185,238,  official: 184,978,  infectious: 2,202,  died: 4,  dead: 4,449

Aug 28:  real: 185,294,  official: 185,049,  infectious: 2,072,  died: 4,  dead: 4,453

Aug 29:  real: 185,347,  official: 185,116,  infectious: 1,951,  died: 3,  dead: 4,456

Aug 30:  real: 185,397,  official: 185,179,  infectious: 1,838,  died: 3,  dead: 4,459

Aug 31:  real: 185,444,  official: 185,238,  infectious: 1,732,  died: 3,  dead: 4,462

Sep  1:  real: 185,488,  official: 185,294,  infectious: 1,631,  died: 3,  dead: 4,465

Sep  2:  real: 185,529,  official: 185,347,  infectious: 1,536,  died: 2,  dead: 4,467

Sep  3:  real: 185,568,  official: 185,397,  infectious: 1,446,  died: 2,  dead: 4,469

Sep  4:  real: 185,605,  official: 185,444,  infectious: 1,361,  died: 2,  dead: 4,471

Sep  5:  real: 185,640,  official: 185,488,  infectious: 1,281,  died: 2,  dead: 4,473

Sep  6:  real: 185,673,  official: 185,529,  infectious: 1,206,  died: 2,  dead: 4,475

Sep  7:  real: 185,704,  official: 185,568,  infectious: 1,136,  died: 2,  dead: 4,477

Sep  8:  real: 185,733,  official: 185,605,  infectious: 1,070,  died: 2,  dead: 4,479

Sep  9:  real: 185,760,  official: 185,640,  infectious: 1,008,  died: 1,  dead: 4,480

Sep 10:  real: 185,786,  official: 185,673,  infectious: 949,  died: 1,  dead: 4,481

Sep 11:  real: 185,810,  official: 185,704,  infectious: 892,  died: 1,  dead: 4,482

Sep 12:  real: 185,833,  official: 185,733,  infectious: 840,  died: 1,  dead: 4,483

Sep 13:  real: 185,854,  official: 185,760,  infectious: 792,  died: 1,  dead: 4,484

Sep 14:  real: 185,874,  official: 185,786,  infectious: 747,  died: 1,  dead: 4,485

Sep 15:  real: 185,893,  official: 185,810,  infectious: 704,  died: 1,  dead: 4,486

Sep 16:  real: 185,911,  official: 185,833,  infectious: 663,  died: 1,  dead: 4,487

Sep 17:  real: 185,928,  official: 185,854,  infectious: 626,  died: 1,  dead: 4,488

Sep 18:  real: 185,944,  official: 185,874,  infectious: 591,  died: 1,  dead: 4,489

Sep 19:  real: 185,959,  official: 185,893,  infectious: 557,  died: 1,  dead: 4,490

Sep 20:  real: 185,973,  official: 185,911,  infectious: 524,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 21:  real: 185,986,  official: 185,928,  infectious: 494,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 22:  real: 185,999,  official: 185,944,  infectious: 466,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 23:  real: 186,011,  official: 185,959,  infectious: 439,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 24:  real: 186,022,  official: 185,973,  infectious: 415,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 25:  real: 186,033,  official: 185,986,  infectious: 392,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 26:  real: 186,043,  official: 185,999,  infectious: 370,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 27:  real: 186,052,  official: 186,011,  infectious: 350,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 28:  real: 186,061,  official: 186,022,  infectious: 330,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 29:  real: 186,069,  official: 186,033,  infectious: 311,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Sep 30:  real: 186,077,  official: 186,043,  infectious: 294,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  1:  real: 186,085,  official: 186,052,  infectious: 278,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  2:  real: 186,092,  official: 186,061,  infectious: 263,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  3:  real: 186,099,  official: 186,069,  infectious: 250,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  4:  real: 186,105,  official: 186,077,  infectious: 237,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  5:  real: 186,111,  official: 186,085,  infectious: 226,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  6:  real: 186,117,  official: 186,092,  infectious: 214,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  7:  real: 186,122,  official: 186,099,  infectious: 202,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  8:  real: 186,127,  official: 186,105,  infectious: 191,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct  9:  real: 186,132,  official: 186,111,  infectious: 180,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 10:  real: 186,137,  official: 186,117,  infectious: 170,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 11:  real: 186,141,  official: 186,122,  infectious: 161,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 12:  real: 186,145,  official: 186,127,  infectious: 153,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 13:  real: 186,149,  official: 186,132,  infectious: 144,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 14:  real: 186,153,  official: 186,137,  infectious: 135,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 15:  real: 186,156,  official: 186,141,  infectious: 128,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 16:  real: 186,159,  official: 186,145,  infectious: 122,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 17:  real: 186,162,  official: 186,149,  infectious: 115,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 18:  real: 186,165,  official: 186,153,  infectious: 109,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 19:  real: 186,168,  official: 186,156,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 20:  real: 186,171,  official: 186,159,  infectious: 99,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 21:  real: 186,174,  official: 186,162,  infectious: 95,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 22:  real: 186,176,  official: 186,165,  infectious: 91,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 23:  real: 186,178,  official: 186,168,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 24:  real: 186,180,  official: 186,171,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 25:  real: 186,182,  official: 186,174,  infectious: 79,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 26:  real: 186,184,  official: 186,176,  infectious: 75,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 27:  real: 186,186,  official: 186,178,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 28:  real: 186,188,  official: 186,180,  infectious: 67,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 29:  real: 186,190,  official: 186,182,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 30:  real: 186,192,  official: 186,184,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Oct 31:  real: 186,194,  official: 186,186,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  1:  real: 186,195,  official: 186,188,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  2:  real: 186,196,  official: 186,190,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  3:  real: 186,197,  official: 186,192,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  4:  real: 186,198,  official: 186,194,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  5:  real: 186,199,  official: 186,195,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  6:  real: 186,200,  official: 186,196,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  7:  real: 186,201,  official: 186,197,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  8:  real: 186,202,  official: 186,198,  infectious: 38,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov  9:  real: 186,203,  official: 186,199,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 10:  real: 186,204,  official: 186,200,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 11:  real: 186,205,  official: 186,201,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 12:  real: 186,206,  official: 186,202,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 13:  real: 186,207,  official: 186,203,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 14:  real: 186,208,  official: 186,204,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 15:  real: 186,209,  official: 186,205,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 16:  real: 186,210,  official: 186,206,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 17:  real: 186,211,  official: 186,207,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 18:  real: 186,212,  official: 186,208,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 19:  real: 186,213,  official: 186,209,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 20:  real: 186,214,  official: 186,210,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 21:  real: 186,215,  official: 186,211,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 22:  real: 186,216,  official: 186,212,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 23:  real: 186,217,  official: 186,213,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 24:  real: 186,218,  official: 186,214,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 25:  real: 186,219,  official: 186,215,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 26:  real: 186,220,  official: 186,216,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 27:  real: 186,221,  official: 186,217,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 28:  real: 186,222,  official: 186,218,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 29:  real: 186,223,  official: 186,219,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Nov 30:  real: 186,224,  official: 186,220,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  1:  real: 186,225,  official: 186,221,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  2:  real: 186,226,  official: 186,222,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  3:  real: 186,227,  official: 186,223,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  4:  real: 186,228,  official: 186,224,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  5:  real: 186,229,  official: 186,225,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  6:  real: 186,230,  official: 186,226,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  7:  real: 186,231,  official: 186,227,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  8:  real: 186,232,  official: 186,228,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec  9:  real: 186,233,  official: 186,229,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 10:  real: 186,234,  official: 186,230,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 11:  real: 186,235,  official: 186,231,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 12:  real: 186,236,  official: 186,232,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 13:  real: 186,237,  official: 186,233,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 14:  real: 186,238,  official: 186,234,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 15:  real: 186,239,  official: 186,235,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 16:  real: 186,240,  official: 186,236,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 17:  real: 186,241,  official: 186,237,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 18:  real: 186,242,  official: 186,238,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 19:  real: 186,243,  official: 186,239,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 20:  real: 186,244,  official: 186,240,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 21:  real: 186,245,  official: 186,241,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 22:  real: 186,246,  official: 186,242,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 23:  real: 186,247,  official: 186,243,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 24:  real: 186,248,  official: 186,244,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 25:  real: 186,249,  official: 186,245,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 26:  real: 186,250,  official: 186,246,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 27:  real: 186,251,  official: 186,247,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 28:  real: 186,252,  official: 186,248,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 29:  real: 186,253,  official: 186,249,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 30:  real: 186,254,  official: 186,250,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

Dec 31:  real: 186,255,  official: 186,251,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 4,490

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       500 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        151:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
      2,172:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      2,318:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      4,490:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.70%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0270
Official uninf: 99,850,742 / Adult Pop.: 100,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.85%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0015
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.71%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0271