COVID-19 Forecast for Argentina, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
60 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Argentina HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 60 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Argentina run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Argentina are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         40:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,141:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,141:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Argentina COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.039, at 103.89% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 2,  official: 0,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 8,  official: 0,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 9,  official: 1,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 12,  official: 1,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 17,  official: 2,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 19,  official: 8,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 21,  official: 9,  infectious: 21,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  8:  real: 31,  official: 12,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  9:  real: 34,  official: 17,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 10:  real: 45,  official: 19,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 11:  real: 56,  official: 21,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 12:  real: 65,  official: 31,  infectious: 65,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 79,  official: 34,  infectious: 79,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 14:  real: 97,  official: 45,  infectious: 97,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 15:  real: 128,  official: 56,  infectious: 128,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 16:  real: 158,  official: 65,  infectious: 158,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 17:  real: 158,  official: 79,  infectious: 158,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 18:  real: 266,  official: 97,  infectious: 266,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 19:  real: 301,  official: 128,  infectious: 301,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 20:  real: 387,  official: 158,  infectious: 387,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 21:  real: 502,  official: 158,  infectious: 502,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 22:  real: 589,  official: 266,  infectious: 589,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar 23:  real: 589,  official: 301,  infectious: 589,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar 24:  real: 745,  official: 387,  infectious: 745,  died: 2,  dead: 6

Mar 25:  real: 820,  official: 502,  infectious: 820,  died: 2,  dead: 8

Mar 26:  real: 820,  official: 589,  infectious: 820,  died: 4,  dead: 12

Mar 27:  real: 1,054,  official: 589,  infectious: 1,054,  died: 1,  dead: 13

Mar 28:  real: 1,133,  official: 745,  infectious: 1,133,  died: 6,  dead: 19

Mar 29:  real: 1,265,  official: 820,  infectious: 1,265,  died: 1,  dead: 20

Mar 30:  real: 1,353,  official: 820,  infectious: 1,353,  died: 3,  dead: 23

Mar 31:  real: 1,451,  official: 1,054,  infectious: 1,451,  died: 4,  dead: 27

Apr  1:  real: 1,554,  official: 1,133,  infectious: 1,554,  died: 5,  dead: 32

Apr  2:  real: 1,628,  official: 1,265,  infectious: 1,628,  died: 4,  dead: 36

Apr  3:  real: 1,715,  official: 1,353,  infectious: 1,715,  died: 6,  dead: 42

Apr  4:  real: 1,795,  official: 1,451,  infectious: 1,795,  died: 1,  dead: 43

Apr  5:  real: 1,894,  official: 1,554,  infectious: 1,894,  died: 3,  dead: 46

Apr  6:  real: 1,975,  official: 1,628,  infectious: 1,975,  died: 7,  dead: 53

Apr  7:  real: 2,142,  official: 1,715,  infectious: 2,142,  died: 7,  dead: 60

Apr  8:  real: 2,142,  official: 1,795,  infectious: 2,142,  died: 5,  dead: 65

Apr  9:  real: 2,277,  official: 1,894,  infectious: 2,277,  died: 14,  dead: 79

Apr 10:  real: 2,277,  official: 1,975,  infectious: 2,277,  died: 3,  dead: 82

Apr 11:  real: 2,571,  official: 2,142,  infectious: 2,571,  died: 7,  dead: 89

Apr 12:  real: 2,669,  official: 2,142,  infectious: 2,669,  died: 1,  dead: 90

Apr 13:  real: 2,669,  official: 2,277,  infectious: 2,669,  died: 8,  dead: 98

Apr 14:  real: 2,839,  official: 2,277,  infectious: 2,839,  died: 4,  dead: 102

Apr 15:  real: 2,941,  official: 2,571,  infectious: 2,941,  died: 10,  dead: 112

Apr 16:  real: 3,031,  official: 2,669,  infectious: 3,031,  died: 10,  dead: 122

Apr 17:  real: 3,144,  official: 2,669,  infectious: 3,144,  died: 1,  dead: 123

Apr 18:  real: 3,288,  official: 2,839,  infectious: 3,288,  died: 9,  dead: 132

Apr 19:  real: 3,435,  official: 2,941,  infectious: 3,435,  died: 2,  dead: 134

Apr 20:  real: 3,607,  official: 3,031,  infectious: 3,607,  died: 8,  dead: 142

Apr 21:  real: 3,780,  official: 3,144,  infectious: 3,780,  died: 9,  dead: 151

Apr 22:  real: 3,892,  official: 3,288,  infectious: 3,892,  died: 8,  dead: 159

Apr 23:  real: 4,003,  official: 3,435,  infectious: 4,003,  died: 6,  dead: 165

Apr 24:  real: 4,127,  official: 3,607,  infectious: 4,127,  died: 11,  dead: 176

Apr 25:  real: 4,285,  official: 3,780,  infectious: 4,285,  died: 9,  dead: 185

Apr 26:  real: 4,428,  official: 3,892,  infectious: 4,428,  died: 7,  dead: 192

Apr 27:  real: 4,532,  official: 4,003,  infectious: 4,532,  died: 5,  dead: 197

Apr 28:  real: 4,681,  official: 4,127,  infectious: 4,681,  died: 10,  dead: 207

Apr 29:  real: 4,783,  official: 4,285,  infectious: 4,783,  died: 7,  dead: 214

Apr 30:  real: 4,887,  official: 4,428,  infectious: 4,887,  died: 4,  dead: 218

May  1:  real: 5,020,  official: 4,532,  infectious: 5,020,  died: 7,  dead: 225

May  2:  real: 5,208,  official: 4,681,  infectious: 5,208,  died: 12,  dead: 237

May  3:  real: 5,371,  official: 4,783,  infectious: 5,371,  died: 9,  dead: 246

May  4:  real: 5,611,  official: 4,887,  infectious: 5,611,  died: 14,  dead: 260

May  5:  real: 5,776,  official: 5,020,  infectious: 5,776,  died: 4,  dead: 264

May  6:  real: 6,034,  official: 5,208,  infectious: 6,034,  died: 9,  dead: 273

May  7:  real: 6,278,  official: 5,371,  infectious: 6,278,  died: 9,  dead: 282

May  8:  real: 6,563,  official: 5,611,  infectious: 6,563,  died: 11,  dead: 293

May  9:  real: 6,879,  official: 5,776,  infectious: 6,879,  died: 7,  dead: 300

May 10:  real: 7,134,  official: 6,034,  infectious: 7,134,  died: 5,  dead: 305

May 11:  real: 7,479,  official: 6,278,  infectious: 7,479,  died: 9,  dead: 314

May 12:  real: 7,805,  official: 6,563,  infectious: 7,805,  died: 5,  dead: 319

May 13:  real: 8,068,  official: 6,879,  infectious: 8,068,  died: 10,  dead: 329

May 14:  real: 8,371,  official: 7,134,  infectious: 8,371,  died: 24,  dead: 353

May 15:  real: 8,809,  official: 7,479,  infectious: 8,809,  died: 3,  dead: 356

May 16:  real: 9,283,  official: 7,805,  infectious: 9,283,  died: 7,  dead: 363

May 17:  real: 9,931,  official: 8,068,  infectious: 9,931,  died: 10,  dead: 373

May 18:  real: 10,649,  official: 8,371,  infectious: 10,649,  died: 9,  dead: 382

May 19:  real: 11,353,  official: 8,809,  infectious: 11,353,  died: 11,  dead: 393

May 20:  real: 12,076,  official: 9,283,  infectious: 12,076,  died: 10,  dead: 403

May 21:  real: 12,628,  official: 9,931,  infectious: 12,628,  died: 13,  dead: 416

May 22:  real: 13,228,  official: 10,649,  infectious: 13,228,  died: 17,  dead: 433

May 23:  real: 13,933,  official: 11,353,  infectious: 13,933,  died: 12,  dead: 445

May 24:  real: 14,702,  official: 12,076,  infectious: 14,702,  died: 7,  dead: 452

May 25:  real: 15,419,  official: 12,628,  infectious: 15,419,  died: 15,  dead: 467

May 26:  real: 16,214,  official: 13,228,  infectious: 16,214,  died: 17,  dead: 484

May 27:  real: 16,851,  official: 13,933,  infectious: 16,851,  died: 16,  dead: 500

May 28:  real: 17,415,  official: 14,702,  infectious: 17,415,  died: 8,  dead: 508

May 29:  real: 18,319,  official: 15,419,  infectious: 18,319,  died: 12,  dead: 520

May 30:  real: 19,268,  official: 16,214,  infectious: 19,268,  died: 8,  dead: 528

May 31:  real: 20,197,  official: 16,851,  infectious: 20,197,  died: 11,  dead: 539

Jun  1:  real: 21,037,  official: 17,415,  infectious: 21,037,  died: 17,  dead: 556

Jun  2:  real: 22,020,  official: 18,319,  infectious: 22,020,  died: 13,  dead: 569

Jun  3:  real: 22,794,  official: 19,268,  infectious: 22,794,  died: 14,  dead: 583

Jun  4:  real: 23,620,  official: 20,197,  infectious: 23,620,  died: 25,  dead: 608

Jun  5:  real: 24,761,  official: 21,037,  infectious: 24,761,  died: 24,  dead: 632

Jun  6:  real: 25,987,  official: 22,020,  infectious: 25,987,  died: 16,  dead: 648

Jun  7:  real: 27,373,  official: 22,794,  infectious: 27,373,  died: 16,  dead: 664

Jun  8:  real: 28,764,  official: 23,620,  infectious: 28,764,  died: 29,  dead: 693

Jun  9:  real: 30,295,  official: 24,761,  infectious: 30,295,  died: 24,  dead: 717

Jun 10:  real: 31,577,  official: 25,987,  infectious: 31,577,  died: 18,  dead: 735

Jun 11:  real: 32,785,  official: 27,373,  infectious: 32,785,  died: 30,  dead: 765

Jun 12:  real: 34,159,  official: 28,764,  infectious: 34,159,  died: 20,  dead: 785

Jun 13:  real: 35,552,  official: 30,295,  infectious: 35,552,  died: 30,  dead: 815

Jun 14:  real: 37,510,  official: 31,577,  infectious: 37,510,  died: 18,  dead: 833

Jun 15:  real: 39,570,  official: 32,785,  infectious: 39,570,  died: 21,  dead: 854

Jun 16:  real: 41,204,  official: 34,159,  infectious: 41,204,  died: 24,  dead: 878

Jun 17:  real: 42,785,  official: 35,552,  infectious: 42,785,  died: 35,  dead: 913

Jun 18:  real: 44,931,  official: 37,510,  infectious: 44,931,  died: 35,  dead: 948

Jun 19:  real: 47,203,  official: 39,570,  infectious: 47,203,  died: 31,  dead: 979

Jun 20:  real: 49,851,  official: 41,204,  infectious: 49,851,  died: 13,  dead: 992

Jun 21:  real: 52,457,  official: 42,785,  infectious: 52,457,  died: 19,  dead: 1,011

Jun 22:  real: 55,343,  official: 44,931,  infectious: 55,343,  died: 32,  dead: 1,043

Jun 23:  real: 57,744,  official: 47,203,  infectious: 57,744,  died: 35,  dead: 1,078

Jun 24:  real: 59,933,  official: 49,851,  infectious: 59,933,  died: 38,  dead: 1,116

Jun 25:  real: 62,268,  official: 52,457,  infectious: 62,268,  died: 34,  dead: 1,150

Jun 26:  real: 64,530,  official: 55,343,  infectious: 64,530,  died: 34,  dead: 1,184

Jun 27:  real: 67,197,  official: 57,744,  infectious: 67,197,  died: 23,  dead: 1,207

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 68,528,  official: 59,933,  infectious: 34,221,  died: 36,  dead: 1,243

Jun 29:  real: 69,916,  official: 62,268,  infectious: 35,710,  died: 36,  dead: 1,279

Jun 30:  real: 71,297,  official: 64,530,  infectious: 35,522,  died: 40,  dead: 1,319

Jul  1:  real: 72,666,  official: 67,197,  infectious: 35,225,  died: 33,  dead: 1,352

Jul  2:  real: 74,031,  official: 68,528,  infectious: 35,118,  died: 30,  dead: 1,382

Jul  3:  real: 75,393,  official: 69,916,  infectious: 35,027,  died: 32,  dead: 1,414

Jul  4:  real: 76,749,  official: 71,297,  infectious: 34,880,  died: 31,  dead: 1,445

Jul  5:  real: 78,099,  official: 72,666,  infectious: 34,741,  died: 37,  dead: 1,482

Jul  6:  real: 79,425,  official: 74,031,  infectious: 34,124,  died: 0,  dead: 1,482

Jul  7:  real: 80,724,  official: 75,393,  infectious: 33,419,  died: 36,  dead: 1,518

Jul  8:  real: 82,005,  official: 76,749,  infectious: 32,972,  died: 36,  dead: 1,554

Jul  9:  real: 83,277,  official: 78,099,  infectious: 32,737,  died: 40,  dead: 1,594

Jul 10:  real: 84,521,  official: 79,425,  infectious: 32,023,  died: 33,  dead: 1,627

Jul 11:  real: 85,733,  official: 80,724,  infectious: 31,201,  died: 30,  dead: 1,657

Jul 12:  real: 86,901,  official: 82,005,  infectious: 30,053,  died: 32,  dead: 1,689

Jul 13:  real: 88,024,  official: 83,277,  infectious: 28,907,  died: 31,  dead: 1,720

Jul 14:  real: 89,092,  official: 84,521,  infectious: 27,494,  died: 37,  dead: 1,757

Jul 15:  real: 90,119,  official: 85,733,  infectious: 26,425,  died: 36,  dead: 1,793

Jul 16:  real: 91,109,  official: 86,901,  infectious: 25,472,  died: 38,  dead: 1,831

Jul 17:  real: 92,056,  official: 88,024,  infectious: 24,366,  died: 38,  dead: 1,869

Jul 18:  real: 92,961,  official: 89,092,  infectious: 23,287,  died: 37,  dead: 1,906

Jul 19:  real: 93,810,  official: 90,119,  infectious: 21,846,  died: 37,  dead: 1,943

Jul 20:  real: 94,643,  official: 91,109,  infectious: 21,433,  died: 37,  dead: 1,980

Jul 21:  real: 95,456,  official: 92,056,  infectious: 20,924,  died: 37,  dead: 2,017

Jul 22:  real: 96,249,  official: 92,961,  infectious: 20,412,  died: 37,  dead: 2,054

Jul 23:  real: 97,022,  official: 93,810,  infectious: 19,897,  died: 36,  dead: 2,090

Jul 24:  real: 97,775,  official: 94,643,  infectious: 19,376,  died: 36,  dead: 2,126

Jul 25:  real: 98,507,  official: 95,456,  infectious: 18,847,  died: 35,  dead: 2,161

Jul 26:  real: 99,218,  official: 96,249,  infectious: 18,312,  died: 35,  dead: 2,196

Jul 27:  real: 99,908,  official: 97,022,  infectious: 17,768,  died: 34,  dead: 2,230

Jul 28:  real: 100,577,  official: 97,775,  infectious: 17,230,  died: 33,  dead: 2,263

Jul 29:  real: 101,226,  official: 98,507,  infectious: 16,703,  died: 32,  dead: 2,295

Jul 30:  real: 101,854,  official: 99,218,  infectious: 16,178,  died: 31,  dead: 2,326

Jul 31:  real: 102,462,  official: 99,908,  infectious: 15,643,  died: 29,  dead: 2,355

Aug  1:  real: 103,049,  official: 100,577,  infectious: 15,114,  died: 28,  dead: 2,383

Aug  2:  real: 103,616,  official: 101,226,  infectious: 14,594,  died: 27,  dead: 2,410

Aug  3:  real: 104,163,  official: 101,854,  infectious: 14,093,  died: 26,  dead: 2,436

Aug  4:  real: 104,692,  official: 102,462,  infectious: 13,612,  died: 25,  dead: 2,461

Aug  5:  real: 105,203,  official: 103,049,  infectious: 13,159,  died: 23,  dead: 2,484

Aug  6:  real: 105,697,  official: 103,616,  infectious: 12,726,  died: 23,  dead: 2,507

Aug  7:  real: 106,175,  official: 104,163,  infectious: 12,308,  died: 22,  dead: 2,529

Aug  8:  real: 106,638,  official: 104,692,  infectious: 11,912,  died: 22,  dead: 2,551

Aug  9:  real: 107,086,  official: 105,203,  infectious: 11,537,  died: 21,  dead: 2,572

Aug 10:  real: 107,521,  official: 105,697,  infectious: 11,196,  died: 20,  dead: 2,592

Aug 11:  real: 107,943,  official: 106,175,  infectious: 10,858,  died: 20,  dead: 2,612

Aug 12:  real: 108,352,  official: 106,638,  infectious: 10,527,  died: 19,  dead: 2,631

Aug 13:  real: 108,748,  official: 107,086,  infectious: 10,203,  died: 19,  dead: 2,650

Aug 14:  real: 109,132,  official: 107,521,  infectious: 9,886,  died: 18,  dead: 2,668

Aug 15:  real: 109,504,  official: 107,943,  infectious: 9,575,  died: 18,  dead: 2,686

Aug 16:  real: 109,864,  official: 108,352,  infectious: 9,272,  died: 17,  dead: 2,703

Aug 17:  real: 110,213,  official: 108,748,  infectious: 8,977,  died: 17,  dead: 2,720

Aug 18:  real: 110,550,  official: 109,132,  infectious: 8,690,  died: 15,  dead: 2,735

Aug 19:  real: 110,877,  official: 109,504,  infectious: 8,413,  died: 15,  dead: 2,750

Aug 20:  real: 111,193,  official: 109,864,  infectious: 8,142,  died: 14,  dead: 2,764

Aug 21:  real: 111,499,  official: 110,213,  infectious: 7,881,  died: 14,  dead: 2,778

Aug 22:  real: 111,795,  official: 110,550,  infectious: 7,628,  died: 14,  dead: 2,792

Aug 23:  real: 112,082,  official: 110,877,  infectious: 7,383,  died: 13,  dead: 2,805

Aug 24:  real: 112,359,  official: 111,193,  infectious: 7,146,  died: 13,  dead: 2,818

Aug 25:  real: 112,628,  official: 111,499,  infectious: 6,919,  died: 12,  dead: 2,830

Aug 26:  real: 112,888,  official: 111,795,  infectious: 6,698,  died: 12,  dead: 2,842

Aug 27:  real: 113,140,  official: 112,082,  infectious: 6,488,  died: 12,  dead: 2,854

Aug 28:  real: 113,384,  official: 112,359,  infectious: 6,283,  died: 11,  dead: 2,865

Aug 29:  real: 113,620,  official: 112,628,  infectious: 6,086,  died: 11,  dead: 2,876

Aug 30:  real: 113,849,  official: 112,888,  infectious: 5,894,  died: 11,  dead: 2,887

Aug 31:  real: 114,071,  official: 113,140,  infectious: 5,708,  died: 10,  dead: 2,897

Sep  1:  real: 114,286,  official: 113,384,  infectious: 5,528,  died: 9,  dead: 2,906

Sep  2:  real: 114,494,  official: 113,620,  infectious: 5,353,  died: 9,  dead: 2,915

Sep  3:  real: 114,695,  official: 113,849,  infectious: 5,183,  died: 9,  dead: 2,924

Sep  4:  real: 114,890,  official: 114,071,  infectious: 5,020,  died: 9,  dead: 2,933

Sep  5:  real: 115,079,  official: 114,286,  infectious: 4,860,  died: 8,  dead: 2,941

Sep  6:  real: 115,262,  official: 114,494,  infectious: 4,706,  died: 8,  dead: 2,949

Sep  7:  real: 115,439,  official: 114,695,  infectious: 4,557,  died: 8,  dead: 2,957

Sep  8:  real: 115,610,  official: 114,890,  infectious: 4,412,  died: 8,  dead: 2,965

Sep  9:  real: 115,776,  official: 115,079,  infectious: 4,273,  died: 7,  dead: 2,972

Sep 10:  real: 115,937,  official: 115,262,  infectious: 4,136,  died: 7,  dead: 2,979

Sep 11:  real: 116,093,  official: 115,439,  infectious: 4,006,  died: 7,  dead: 2,986

Sep 12:  real: 116,244,  official: 115,610,  infectious: 3,879,  died: 7,  dead: 2,993

Sep 13:  real: 116,390,  official: 115,776,  infectious: 3,758,  died: 6,  dead: 2,999

Sep 14:  real: 116,531,  official: 115,937,  infectious: 3,640,  died: 6,  dead: 3,005

Sep 15:  real: 116,668,  official: 116,093,  infectious: 3,526,  died: 6,  dead: 3,011

Sep 16:  real: 116,801,  official: 116,244,  infectious: 3,414,  died: 6,  dead: 3,017

Sep 17:  real: 116,929,  official: 116,390,  infectious: 3,306,  died: 6,  dead: 3,023

Sep 18:  real: 117,053,  official: 116,531,  infectious: 3,202,  died: 5,  dead: 3,028

Sep 19:  real: 117,173,  official: 116,668,  infectious: 3,101,  died: 5,  dead: 3,033

Sep 20:  real: 117,290,  official: 116,801,  infectious: 3,004,  died: 5,  dead: 3,038

Sep 21:  real: 117,403,  official: 116,929,  infectious: 2,910,  died: 4,  dead: 3,042

Sep 22:  real: 117,512,  official: 117,053,  infectious: 2,819,  died: 4,  dead: 3,046

Sep 23:  real: 117,618,  official: 117,173,  infectious: 2,730,  died: 4,  dead: 3,050

Sep 24:  real: 117,721,  official: 117,290,  infectious: 2,643,  died: 4,  dead: 3,054

Sep 25:  real: 117,820,  official: 117,403,  infectious: 2,560,  died: 4,  dead: 3,058

Sep 26:  real: 117,916,  official: 117,512,  infectious: 2,480,  died: 4,  dead: 3,062

Sep 27:  real: 118,009,  official: 117,618,  infectious: 2,402,  died: 4,  dead: 3,066

Sep 28:  real: 118,099,  official: 117,721,  infectious: 2,326,  died: 3,  dead: 3,069

Sep 29:  real: 118,186,  official: 117,820,  infectious: 2,253,  died: 3,  dead: 3,072

Sep 30:  real: 118,271,  official: 117,916,  infectious: 2,183,  died: 3,  dead: 3,075

Oct  1:  real: 118,353,  official: 118,009,  infectious: 2,114,  died: 3,  dead: 3,078

Oct  2:  real: 118,433,  official: 118,099,  infectious: 2,048,  died: 3,  dead: 3,081

Oct  3:  real: 118,510,  official: 118,186,  infectious: 1,983,  died: 3,  dead: 3,084

Oct  4:  real: 118,585,  official: 118,271,  infectious: 1,921,  died: 3,  dead: 3,087

Oct  5:  real: 118,657,  official: 118,353,  infectious: 1,860,  died: 3,  dead: 3,090

Oct  6:  real: 118,727,  official: 118,433,  infectious: 1,804,  died: 3,  dead: 3,093

Oct  7:  real: 118,795,  official: 118,510,  infectious: 1,747,  died: 2,  dead: 3,095

Oct  8:  real: 118,861,  official: 118,585,  infectious: 1,692,  died: 2,  dead: 3,097

Oct  9:  real: 118,925,  official: 118,657,  infectious: 1,640,  died: 2,  dead: 3,099

Oct 10:  real: 118,987,  official: 118,727,  infectious: 1,590,  died: 2,  dead: 3,101

Oct 11:  real: 119,047,  official: 118,795,  infectious: 1,541,  died: 2,  dead: 3,103

Oct 12:  real: 119,105,  official: 118,861,  infectious: 1,492,  died: 2,  dead: 3,105

Oct 13:  real: 119,161,  official: 118,925,  infectious: 1,446,  died: 2,  dead: 3,107

Oct 14:  real: 119,215,  official: 118,987,  infectious: 1,402,  died: 2,  dead: 3,109

Oct 15:  real: 119,268,  official: 119,047,  infectious: 1,358,  died: 2,  dead: 3,111

Oct 16:  real: 119,319,  official: 119,105,  infectious: 1,316,  died: 2,  dead: 3,113

Oct 17:  real: 119,369,  official: 119,161,  infectious: 1,276,  died: 2,  dead: 3,115

Oct 18:  real: 119,417,  official: 119,215,  infectious: 1,236,  died: 2,  dead: 3,117

Oct 19:  real: 119,464,  official: 119,268,  infectious: 1,198,  died: 2,  dead: 3,119

Oct 20:  real: 119,509,  official: 119,319,  infectious: 1,161,  died: 1,  dead: 3,120

Oct 21:  real: 119,553,  official: 119,369,  infectious: 1,125,  died: 1,  dead: 3,121

Oct 22:  real: 119,595,  official: 119,417,  infectious: 1,091,  died: 1,  dead: 3,122

Oct 23:  real: 119,636,  official: 119,464,  infectious: 1,059,  died: 1,  dead: 3,123

Oct 24:  real: 119,676,  official: 119,509,  infectious: 1,026,  died: 1,  dead: 3,124

Oct 25:  real: 119,715,  official: 119,553,  infectious: 994,  died: 1,  dead: 3,125

Oct 26:  real: 119,752,  official: 119,595,  infectious: 964,  died: 1,  dead: 3,126

Oct 27:  real: 119,788,  official: 119,636,  infectious: 935,  died: 1,  dead: 3,127

Oct 28:  real: 119,823,  official: 119,676,  infectious: 906,  died: 1,  dead: 3,128

Oct 29:  real: 119,857,  official: 119,715,  infectious: 878,  died: 1,  dead: 3,129

Oct 30:  real: 119,890,  official: 119,752,  infectious: 850,  died: 1,  dead: 3,130

Oct 31:  real: 119,922,  official: 119,788,  infectious: 824,  died: 1,  dead: 3,131

Nov  1:  real: 119,953,  official: 119,823,  infectious: 799,  died: 1,  dead: 3,132

Nov  2:  real: 119,983,  official: 119,857,  infectious: 774,  died: 1,  dead: 3,133

Nov  3:  real: 120,012,  official: 119,890,  infectious: 749,  died: 1,  dead: 3,134

Nov  4:  real: 120,040,  official: 119,922,  infectious: 727,  died: 1,  dead: 3,135

Nov  5:  real: 120,067,  official: 119,953,  infectious: 706,  died: 1,  dead: 3,136

Nov  6:  real: 120,094,  official: 119,983,  infectious: 684,  died: 1,  dead: 3,137

Nov  7:  real: 120,120,  official: 120,012,  infectious: 663,  died: 1,  dead: 3,138

Nov  8:  real: 120,145,  official: 120,040,  infectious: 643,  died: 1,  dead: 3,139

Nov  9:  real: 120,169,  official: 120,067,  infectious: 624,  died: 1,  dead: 3,140

Nov 10:  real: 120,193,  official: 120,094,  infectious: 606,  died: 1,  dead: 3,141

Nov 11:  real: 120,216,  official: 120,120,  infectious: 588,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 12:  real: 120,238,  official: 120,145,  infectious: 571,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 13:  real: 120,260,  official: 120,169,  infectious: 555,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 14:  real: 120,281,  official: 120,193,  infectious: 539,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 15:  real: 120,301,  official: 120,216,  infectious: 523,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 16:  real: 120,321,  official: 120,238,  infectious: 506,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 17:  real: 120,340,  official: 120,260,  infectious: 490,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 18:  real: 120,358,  official: 120,281,  infectious: 476,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 19:  real: 120,376,  official: 120,301,  infectious: 462,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 20:  real: 120,393,  official: 120,321,  infectious: 448,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 21:  real: 120,410,  official: 120,340,  infectious: 434,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 22:  real: 120,426,  official: 120,358,  infectious: 420,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 23:  real: 120,442,  official: 120,376,  infectious: 407,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 24:  real: 120,457,  official: 120,393,  infectious: 394,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 25:  real: 120,472,  official: 120,410,  infectious: 382,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 26:  real: 120,486,  official: 120,426,  infectious: 371,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 27:  real: 120,500,  official: 120,442,  infectious: 362,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 28:  real: 120,514,  official: 120,457,  infectious: 352,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 29:  real: 120,527,  official: 120,472,  infectious: 342,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Nov 30:  real: 120,540,  official: 120,486,  infectious: 333,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  1:  real: 120,553,  official: 120,500,  infectious: 324,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  2:  real: 120,565,  official: 120,514,  infectious: 315,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  3:  real: 120,577,  official: 120,527,  infectious: 307,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  4:  real: 120,589,  official: 120,540,  infectious: 299,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  5:  real: 120,600,  official: 120,553,  infectious: 291,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  6:  real: 120,611,  official: 120,565,  infectious: 284,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  7:  real: 120,622,  official: 120,577,  infectious: 276,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  8:  real: 120,632,  official: 120,589,  infectious: 268,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec  9:  real: 120,642,  official: 120,600,  infectious: 260,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 10:  real: 120,652,  official: 120,611,  infectious: 253,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 11:  real: 120,662,  official: 120,622,  infectious: 246,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 12:  real: 120,671,  official: 120,632,  infectious: 240,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 13:  real: 120,680,  official: 120,642,  infectious: 234,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 14:  real: 120,689,  official: 120,652,  infectious: 228,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 15:  real: 120,698,  official: 120,662,  infectious: 222,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 16:  real: 120,706,  official: 120,671,  infectious: 217,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 17:  real: 120,714,  official: 120,680,  infectious: 212,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 18:  real: 120,722,  official: 120,689,  infectious: 207,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 19:  real: 120,730,  official: 120,698,  infectious: 202,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 20:  real: 120,738,  official: 120,706,  infectious: 197,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 21:  real: 120,745,  official: 120,714,  infectious: 192,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 22:  real: 120,752,  official: 120,722,  infectious: 187,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 23:  real: 120,759,  official: 120,730,  infectious: 181,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 24:  real: 120,766,  official: 120,738,  infectious: 176,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 25:  real: 120,773,  official: 120,745,  infectious: 171,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 26:  real: 120,779,  official: 120,752,  infectious: 166,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 27:  real: 120,785,  official: 120,759,  infectious: 162,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 28:  real: 120,791,  official: 120,766,  infectious: 157,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 29:  real: 120,797,  official: 120,773,  infectious: 152,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 30:  real: 120,803,  official: 120,779,  infectious: 148,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

Dec 31:  real: 120,809,  official: 120,785,  infectious: 144,  died: 0,  dead: 3,141

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         40:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,141:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,141:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 103.89%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0389
Official uninf: 31,932,803 / Adult Pop.: 32,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.79%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0021
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 103.90%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0390