COVID-19 Forecast for India, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
71 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL India HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 71 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in India run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in India are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        282:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     27,384:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     27,384:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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India COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.033, at 103.29% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 30,  official: 3,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 31,  official: 6,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 34,  official: 7,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 40,  official: 29,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 47,  official: 30,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 62,  official: 31,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 62,  official: 34,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 74,  official: 40,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 82,  official: 47,  infectious: 82,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 100,  official: 62,  infectious: 100,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 114,  official: 62,  infectious: 114,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 129,  official: 74,  infectious: 129,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 143,  official: 82,  infectious: 143,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 14:  real: 169,  official: 100,  infectious: 169,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 15:  real: 194,  official: 114,  infectious: 194,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 16:  real: 249,  official: 129,  infectious: 249,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 17:  real: 332,  official: 143,  infectious: 332,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 18:  real: 396,  official: 169,  infectious: 396,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 19:  real: 499,  official: 194,  infectious: 499,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 20:  real: 536,  official: 249,  infectious: 536,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Mar 21:  real: 657,  official: 332,  infectious: 657,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 22:  real: 727,  official: 396,  infectious: 727,  died: 2,  dead: 7

Mar 23:  real: 887,  official: 499,  infectious: 887,  died: 3,  dead: 10

Mar 24:  real: 987,  official: 536,  infectious: 987,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Mar 25:  real: 1,024,  official: 657,  infectious: 1,024,  died: 2,  dead: 12

Mar 26:  real: 1,251,  official: 727,  infectious: 1,251,  died: 8,  dead: 20

Mar 27:  real: 1,397,  official: 887,  infectious: 1,397,  died: 0,  dead: 20

Mar 28:  real: 1,998,  official: 987,  infectious: 1,998,  died: 4,  dead: 24

Mar 29:  real: 2,543,  official: 1,024,  infectious: 2,543,  died: 3,  dead: 27

Mar 30:  real: 3,059,  official: 1,251,  infectious: 3,059,  died: 5,  dead: 32

Mar 31:  real: 3,588,  official: 1,397,  infectious: 3,588,  died: 3,  dead: 35

Apr  1:  real: 4,289,  official: 1,998,  infectious: 4,289,  died: 23,  dead: 58

Apr  2:  real: 4,778,  official: 2,543,  infectious: 4,778,  died: 14,  dead: 72

Apr  3:  real: 5,351,  official: 3,059,  infectious: 5,351,  died: 14,  dead: 86

Apr  4:  real: 5,916,  official: 3,588,  infectious: 5,916,  died: 13,  dead: 99

Apr  5:  real: 6,725,  official: 4,289,  infectious: 6,725,  died: 19,  dead: 118

Apr  6:  real: 7,600,  official: 4,778,  infectious: 7,600,  died: 18,  dead: 136

Apr  7:  real: 8,446,  official: 5,351,  infectious: 8,446,  died: 24,  dead: 160

Apr  8:  real: 9,205,  official: 5,916,  infectious: 9,205,  died: 18,  dead: 178

Apr  9:  real: 10,453,  official: 6,725,  infectious: 10,453,  died: 49,  dead: 227

Apr 10:  real: 11,487,  official: 7,600,  infectious: 11,487,  died: 22,  dead: 249

Apr 11:  real: 12,370,  official: 8,446,  infectious: 12,370,  died: 39,  dead: 288

Apr 12:  real: 13,430,  official: 9,205,  infectious: 13,430,  died: 43,  dead: 331

Apr 13:  real: 14,352,  official: 10,453,  infectious: 14,352,  died: 27,  dead: 358

Apr 14:  real: 16,365,  official: 11,487,  infectious: 16,365,  died: 35,  dead: 393

Apr 15:  real: 17,615,  official: 12,370,  infectious: 17,615,  died: 29,  dead: 422

Apr 16:  real: 18,539,  official: 13,430,  infectious: 18,539,  died: 26,  dead: 448

Apr 17:  real: 20,080,  official: 14,352,  infectious: 20,080,  died: 38,  dead: 486

Apr 18:  real: 21,370,  official: 16,365,  infectious: 21,370,  died: 35,  dead: 521

Apr 19:  real: 23,039,  official: 17,615,  infectious: 23,039,  died: 38,  dead: 559

Apr 20:  real: 24,447,  official: 18,539,  infectious: 24,447,  died: 33,  dead: 592

Apr 21:  real: 26,283,  official: 20,080,  infectious: 26,283,  died: 53,  dead: 645

Apr 22:  real: 27,890,  official: 21,370,  infectious: 27,890,  died: 36,  dead: 681

Apr 23:  real: 29,451,  official: 23,039,  infectious: 29,451,  died: 40,  dead: 721

Apr 24:  real: 31,324,  official: 24,447,  infectious: 31,324,  died: 59,  dead: 780

Apr 25:  real: 33,062,  official: 26,283,  infectious: 33,062,  died: 45,  dead: 825

Apr 26:  real: 34,863,  official: 27,890,  infectious: 34,863,  died: 56,  dead: 881

Apr 27:  real: 37,257,  official: 29,451,  infectious: 37,257,  died: 58,  dead: 939

Apr 28:  real: 39,699,  official: 31,324,  infectious: 39,699,  died: 69,  dead: 1,008

Apr 29:  real: 42,505,  official: 33,062,  infectious: 42,505,  died: 71,  dead: 1,079

Apr 30:  real: 46,437,  official: 34,863,  infectious: 46,437,  died: 75,  dead: 1,154

May  1:  real: 49,400,  official: 37,257,  infectious: 49,400,  died: 69,  dead: 1,223

May  2:  real: 52,987,  official: 39,699,  infectious: 52,987,  died: 100,  dead: 1,323

May  3:  real: 56,351,  official: 42,505,  infectious: 56,351,  died: 68,  dead: 1,391

May  4:  real: 59,695,  official: 46,437,  infectious: 59,695,  died: 175,  dead: 1,566

May  5:  real: 62,808,  official: 49,400,  infectious: 62,808,  died: 127,  dead: 1,693

May  6:  real: 67,161,  official: 52,987,  infectious: 67,161,  died: 92,  dead: 1,785

May  7:  real: 70,768,  official: 56,351,  infectious: 70,768,  died: 104,  dead: 1,889

May  8:  real: 74,292,  official: 59,695,  infectious: 74,292,  died: 96,  dead: 1,985

May  9:  real: 78,055,  official: 62,808,  infectious: 78,055,  died: 116,  dead: 2,101

May 10:  real: 81,997,  official: 67,161,  infectious: 81,997,  died: 111,  dead: 2,212

May 11:  real: 85,784,  official: 70,768,  infectious: 85,784,  died: 82,  dead: 2,294

May 12:  real: 90,648,  official: 74,292,  infectious: 90,648,  died: 121,  dead: 2,415

May 13:  real: 95,698,  official: 78,055,  infectious: 95,698,  died: 136,  dead: 2,551

May 14:  real: 100,328,  official: 81,997,  infectious: 100,328,  died: 98,  dead: 2,649

May 15:  real: 106,475,  official: 85,784,  infectious: 106,475,  died: 104,  dead: 2,753

May 16:  real: 112,028,  official: 90,648,  infectious: 112,028,  died: 118,  dead: 2,871

May 17:  real: 118,226,  official: 95,698,  infectious: 118,226,  died: 154,  dead: 3,025

May 18:  real: 124,794,  official: 100,328,  infectious: 124,794,  died: 131,  dead: 3,156

May 19:  real: 131,423,  official: 106,475,  infectious: 131,423,  died: 146,  dead: 3,302

May 20:  real: 138,536,  official: 112,028,  infectious: 138,536,  died: 132,  dead: 3,434

May 21:  real: 144,950,  official: 118,226,  infectious: 144,950,  died: 150,  dead: 3,584

May 22:  real: 150,793,  official: 124,794,  infectious: 150,793,  died: 142,  dead: 3,726

May 23:  real: 158,086,  official: 131,423,  infectious: 158,086,  died: 142,  dead: 3,868

May 24:  real: 165,386,  official: 138,536,  infectious: 165,386,  died: 156,  dead: 4,024

May 25:  real: 173,491,  official: 144,950,  infectious: 173,491,  died: 148,  dead: 4,172

May 26:  real: 181,827,  official: 150,793,  infectious: 181,827,  died: 172,  dead: 4,344

May 27:  real: 190,609,  official: 158,086,  infectious: 190,609,  died: 190,  dead: 4,534

May 28:  real: 198,370,  official: 165,386,  infectious: 198,370,  died: 177,  dead: 4,711

May 29:  real: 207,191,  official: 173,491,  infectious: 207,191,  died: 269,  dead: 4,980

May 30:  real: 216,824,  official: 181,827,  infectious: 216,824,  died: 205,  dead: 5,185

May 31:  real: 226,713,  official: 190,609,  infectious: 226,713,  died: 223,  dead: 5,408

Jun  1:  real: 236,184,  official: 198,370,  infectious: 236,184,  died: 200,  dead: 5,608

Jun  2:  real: 246,622,  official: 207,191,  infectious: 246,622,  died: 221,  dead: 5,829

Jun  3:  real: 257,486,  official: 216,824,  infectious: 257,486,  died: 259,  dead: 6,088

Jun  4:  real: 265,928,  official: 226,713,  infectious: 265,928,  died: 275,  dead: 6,363

Jun  5:  real: 274,780,  official: 236,184,  infectious: 274,780,  died: 286,  dead: 6,649

Jun  6:  real: 287,155,  official: 246,622,  infectious: 287,155,  died: 297,  dead: 6,946

Jun  7:  real: 298,283,  official: 257,486,  infectious: 298,283,  died: 261,  dead: 7,207

Jun  8:  real: 309,603,  official: 265,928,  infectious: 309,603,  died: 266,  dead: 7,473

Jun  9:  real: 321,626,  official: 274,780,  infectious: 321,626,  died: 246,  dead: 7,719

Jun 10:  real: 332,783,  official: 287,155,  infectious: 332,783,  died: 388,  dead: 8,107

Jun 11:  real: 343,026,  official: 298,283,  infectious: 343,026,  died: 394,  dead: 8,501

Jun 12:  real: 354,161,  official: 309,603,  infectious: 354,161,  died: 389,  dead: 8,890

Jun 13:  real: 367,264,  official: 321,626,  infectious: 367,264,  died: 309,  dead: 9,199

Jun 14:  real: 381,091,  official: 332,783,  infectious: 381,091,  died: 321,  dead: 9,520

Jun 15:  real: 395,812,  official: 343,026,  infectious: 395,812,  died: 395,  dead: 9,915

Jun 16:  real: 411,727,  official: 354,161,  infectious: 411,727,  died: 2,006,  dead: 11,921

Jun 17:  real: 426,910,  official: 367,264,  infectious: 426,910,  died: 341,  dead: 12,262

Jun 18:  real: 440,450,  official: 381,091,  infectious: 440,450,  died: 342,  dead: 12,604

Jun 19:  real: 456,115,  official: 395,812,  infectious: 456,115,  died: 366,  dead: 12,970

Jun 20:  real: 472,985,  official: 411,727,  infectious: 472,985,  died: 307,  dead: 13,277

Jun 21:  real: 491,170,  official: 426,910,  infectious: 491,170,  died: 426,  dead: 13,703

Jun 22:  real: 509,446,  official: 440,450,  infectious: 509,446,  died: 312,  dead: 14,015

Jun 23:  real: 529,577,  official: 456,115,  infectious: 529,577,  died: 468,  dead: 14,483

Jun 24:  real: 549,197,  official: 472,985,  infectious: 549,197,  died: 424,  dead: 14,907

Jun 25:  real: 567,536,  official: 491,170,  infectious: 567,536,  died: 401,  dead: 15,308

Jun 26:  real: 585,792,  official: 509,446,  infectious: 585,792,  died: 381,  dead: 15,689

Jun 27:  real: 605,220,  official: 529,577,  infectious: 605,220,  died: 414,  dead: 16,103

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 613,905,  official: 549,197,  infectious: 263,892,  died: 236,  dead: 16,339

Jun 29:  real: 622,920,  official: 567,536,  infectious: 273,921,  died: 254,  dead: 16,593

Jun 30:  real: 631,832,  official: 585,792,  infectious: 270,784,  died: 256,  dead: 16,849

Jul  1:  real: 640,626,  official: 605,220,  infectious: 267,203,  died: 282,  dead: 17,131

Jul  2:  real: 649,315,  official: 613,905,  infectious: 264,013,  died: 275,  dead: 17,406

Jul  3:  real: 657,917,  official: 622,920,  infectious: 261,376,  died: 256,  dead: 17,662

Jul  4:  real: 666,396,  official: 631,832,  infectious: 257,656,  died: 255,  dead: 17,917

Jul  5:  real: 674,702,  official: 640,626,  infectious: 252,385,  died: 272,  dead: 18,189

Jul  6:  real: 682,818,  official: 649,315,  infectious: 246,604,  died: 0,  dead: 18,189

Jul  7:  real: 690,713,  official: 657,917,  infectious: 239,917,  died: 236,  dead: 18,425

Jul  8:  real: 698,347,  official: 666,396,  infectious: 231,963,  died: 254,  dead: 18,679

Jul  9:  real: 705,783,  official: 674,702,  infectious: 225,958,  died: 256,  dead: 18,935

Jul 10:  real: 713,054,  official: 682,818,  infectious: 220,962,  died: 282,  dead: 19,217

Jul 11:  real: 720,099,  official: 690,713,  infectious: 214,090,  died: 275,  dead: 19,492

Jul 12:  real: 726,882,  official: 698,347,  infectious: 206,111,  died: 256,  dead: 19,748

Jul 13:  real: 733,361,  official: 705,783,  infectious: 196,874,  died: 255,  dead: 20,003

Jul 14:  real: 739,525,  official: 713,054,  infectious: 187,323,  died: 272,  dead: 20,275

Jul 15:  real: 745,317,  official: 720,099,  infectious: 176,010,  died: 243,  dead: 20,518

Jul 16:  real: 750,741,  official: 726,882,  infectious: 164,827,  died: 252,  dead: 20,770

Jul 17:  real: 755,820,  official: 733,361,  infectious: 154,335,  died: 249,  dead: 21,019

Jul 18:  real: 760,545,  official: 739,525,  infectious: 143,588,  died: 246,  dead: 21,265

Jul 19:  real: 764,876,  official: 745,317,  infectious: 131,607,  died: 243,  dead: 21,508

Jul 20:  real: 769,085,  official: 750,741,  infectious: 127,906,  died: 240,  dead: 21,748

Jul 21:  real: 773,152,  official: 755,820,  infectious: 123,582,  died: 237,  dead: 21,985

Jul 22:  real: 777,077,  official: 760,545,  infectious: 119,266,  died: 232,  dead: 22,217

Jul 23:  real: 780,860,  official: 764,876,  infectious: 114,957,  died: 227,  dead: 22,444

Jul 24:  real: 784,501,  official: 769,085,  infectious: 110,651,  died: 221,  dead: 22,665

Jul 25:  real: 788,000,  official: 773,152,  infectious: 106,338,  died: 213,  dead: 22,878

Jul 26:  real: 791,358,  official: 777,077,  infectious: 102,056,  died: 208,  dead: 23,086

Jul 27:  real: 794,578,  official: 780,860,  infectious: 97,842,  died: 203,  dead: 23,289

Jul 28:  real: 797,662,  official: 784,501,  infectious: 93,710,  died: 197,  dead: 23,486

Jul 29:  real: 800,613,  official: 788,000,  infectious: 89,689,  died: 189,  dead: 23,675

Jul 30:  real: 803,436,  official: 791,358,  infectious: 85,806,  died: 181,  dead: 23,856

Jul 31:  real: 806,133,  official: 794,578,  infectious: 81,973,  died: 172,  dead: 24,028

Aug  1:  real: 808,705,  official: 797,662,  infectious: 78,173,  died: 162,  dead: 24,190

Aug  2:  real: 811,155,  official: 800,613,  infectious: 74,457,  died: 151,  dead: 24,341

Aug  3:  real: 813,486,  official: 803,436,  infectious: 70,853,  died: 142,  dead: 24,483

Aug  4:  real: 815,704,  official: 806,133,  infectious: 67,399,  died: 132,  dead: 24,615

Aug  5:  real: 817,813,  official: 808,705,  infectious: 64,106,  died: 121,  dead: 24,736

Aug  6:  real: 819,821,  official: 811,155,  infectious: 61,026,  died: 117,  dead: 24,853

Aug  7:  real: 821,735,  official: 813,486,  infectious: 58,159,  died: 113,  dead: 24,966

Aug  8:  real: 823,561,  official: 815,704,  infectious: 55,494,  died: 110,  dead: 25,076

Aug  9:  real: 825,306,  official: 817,813,  infectious: 53,045,  died: 105,  dead: 25,181

Aug 10:  real: 826,979,  official: 819,821,  infectious: 50,848,  died: 101,  dead: 25,282

Aug 11:  real: 828,581,  official: 821,735,  infectious: 48,693,  died: 97,  dead: 25,379

Aug 12:  real: 830,114,  official: 823,561,  infectious: 46,604,  died: 94,  dead: 25,473

Aug 13:  real: 831,581,  official: 825,306,  infectious: 44,582,  died: 90,  dead: 25,563

Aug 14:  real: 832,984,  official: 826,979,  infectious: 42,627,  died: 86,  dead: 25,649

Aug 15:  real: 834,325,  official: 828,581,  infectious: 40,743,  died: 82,  dead: 25,731

Aug 16:  real: 835,606,  official: 830,114,  infectious: 38,930,  died: 78,  dead: 25,809

Aug 17:  real: 836,830,  official: 831,581,  infectious: 37,188,  died: 75,  dead: 25,884

Aug 18:  real: 837,999,  official: 832,984,  infectious: 35,514,  died: 72,  dead: 25,956

Aug 19:  real: 839,115,  official: 834,325,  infectious: 33,910,  died: 68,  dead: 26,024

Aug 20:  real: 840,180,  official: 835,606,  infectious: 32,372,  died: 64,  dead: 26,088

Aug 21:  real: 841,197,  official: 836,830,  infectious: 30,898,  died: 62,  dead: 26,150

Aug 22:  real: 842,167,  official: 837,999,  infectious: 29,488,  died: 58,  dead: 26,208

Aug 23:  real: 843,093,  official: 839,115,  infectious: 28,145,  died: 56,  dead: 26,264

Aug 24:  real: 843,977,  official: 840,180,  infectious: 26,865,  died: 53,  dead: 26,317

Aug 25:  real: 844,821,  official: 841,197,  infectious: 25,648,  died: 51,  dead: 26,368

Aug 26:  real: 845,627,  official: 842,167,  infectious: 24,493,  died: 48,  dead: 26,416

Aug 27:  real: 846,397,  official: 843,093,  infectious: 23,397,  died: 46,  dead: 26,462

Aug 28:  real: 847,133,  official: 843,977,  infectious: 22,355,  died: 44,  dead: 26,506

Aug 29:  real: 847,836,  official: 844,821,  infectious: 21,363,  died: 42,  dead: 26,548

Aug 30:  real: 848,508,  official: 845,627,  infectious: 20,418,  died: 40,  dead: 26,588

Aug 31:  real: 849,150,  official: 846,397,  infectious: 19,515,  died: 39,  dead: 26,627

Sep  1:  real: 849,764,  official: 847,133,  infectious: 18,648,  died: 37,  dead: 26,664

Sep  2:  real: 850,350,  official: 847,836,  infectious: 17,816,  died: 35,  dead: 26,699

Sep  3:  real: 850,910,  official: 848,508,  infectious: 17,021,  died: 34,  dead: 26,733

Sep  4:  real: 851,445,  official: 849,150,  infectious: 16,258,  died: 32,  dead: 26,765

Sep  5:  real: 851,956,  official: 849,764,  infectious: 15,529,  died: 30,  dead: 26,795

Sep  6:  real: 852,444,  official: 850,350,  infectious: 14,831,  died: 29,  dead: 26,824

Sep  7:  real: 852,910,  official: 850,910,  infectious: 14,165,  died: 28,  dead: 26,852

Sep  8:  real: 853,355,  official: 851,445,  infectious: 13,529,  died: 26,  dead: 26,878

Sep  9:  real: 853,780,  official: 851,956,  infectious: 12,921,  died: 25,  dead: 26,903

Sep 10:  real: 854,186,  official: 852,444,  infectious: 12,340,  died: 24,  dead: 26,927

Sep 11:  real: 854,574,  official: 852,910,  infectious: 11,786,  died: 23,  dead: 26,950

Sep 12:  real: 854,944,  official: 853,355,  infectious: 11,257,  died: 22,  dead: 26,972

Sep 13:  real: 855,298,  official: 853,780,  infectious: 10,753,  died: 21,  dead: 26,993

Sep 14:  real: 855,636,  official: 854,186,  infectious: 10,271,  died: 20,  dead: 27,013

Sep 15:  real: 855,959,  official: 854,574,  infectious: 9,812,  died: 19,  dead: 27,032

Sep 16:  real: 856,267,  official: 854,944,  infectious: 9,374,  died: 18,  dead: 27,050

Sep 17:  real: 856,562,  official: 855,298,  infectious: 8,957,  died: 17,  dead: 27,067

Sep 18:  real: 856,844,  official: 855,636,  infectious: 8,557,  died: 17,  dead: 27,084

Sep 19:  real: 857,113,  official: 855,959,  infectious: 8,175,  died: 15,  dead: 27,099

Sep 20:  real: 857,370,  official: 856,267,  infectious: 7,810,  died: 15,  dead: 27,114

Sep 21:  real: 857,616,  official: 856,562,  infectious: 7,462,  died: 14,  dead: 27,128

Sep 22:  real: 857,851,  official: 856,844,  infectious: 7,129,  died: 14,  dead: 27,142

Sep 23:  real: 858,075,  official: 857,113,  infectious: 6,810,  died: 13,  dead: 27,155

Sep 24:  real: 858,289,  official: 857,370,  infectious: 6,506,  died: 12,  dead: 27,167

Sep 25:  real: 858,493,  official: 857,616,  infectious: 6,215,  died: 12,  dead: 27,179

Sep 26:  real: 858,688,  official: 857,851,  infectious: 5,937,  died: 11,  dead: 27,190

Sep 27:  real: 858,875,  official: 858,075,  infectious: 5,672,  died: 11,  dead: 27,201

Sep 28:  real: 859,053,  official: 858,289,  infectious: 5,418,  died: 10,  dead: 27,211

Sep 29:  real: 859,223,  official: 858,493,  infectious: 5,176,  died: 9,  dead: 27,220

Sep 30:  real: 859,386,  official: 858,688,  infectious: 4,944,  died: 9,  dead: 27,229

Oct  1:  real: 859,541,  official: 858,875,  infectious: 4,723,  died: 9,  dead: 27,238

Oct  2:  real: 859,689,  official: 859,053,  infectious: 4,513,  died: 8,  dead: 27,246

Oct  3:  real: 859,831,  official: 859,223,  infectious: 4,310,  died: 8,  dead: 27,254

Oct  4:  real: 859,966,  official: 859,386,  infectious: 4,118,  died: 8,  dead: 27,262

Oct  5:  real: 860,095,  official: 859,541,  infectious: 3,935,  died: 7,  dead: 27,269

Oct  6:  real: 860,219,  official: 859,689,  infectious: 3,760,  died: 7,  dead: 27,276

Oct  7:  real: 860,337,  official: 859,831,  infectious: 3,592,  died: 7,  dead: 27,283

Oct  8:  real: 860,450,  official: 859,966,  infectious: 3,432,  died: 6,  dead: 27,289

Oct  9:  real: 860,558,  official: 860,095,  infectious: 3,279,  died: 6,  dead: 27,295

Oct 10:  real: 860,661,  official: 860,219,  infectious: 3,133,  died: 6,  dead: 27,301

Oct 11:  real: 860,760,  official: 860,337,  infectious: 2,994,  died: 5,  dead: 27,306

Oct 12:  real: 860,854,  official: 860,450,  infectious: 2,861,  died: 5,  dead: 27,311

Oct 13:  real: 860,944,  official: 860,558,  infectious: 2,733,  died: 4,  dead: 27,315

Oct 14:  real: 861,030,  official: 860,661,  infectious: 2,611,  died: 4,  dead: 27,319

Oct 15:  real: 861,112,  official: 860,760,  infectious: 2,495,  died: 4,  dead: 27,323

Oct 16:  real: 861,190,  official: 860,854,  infectious: 2,383,  died: 4,  dead: 27,327

Oct 17:  real: 861,265,  official: 860,944,  infectious: 2,277,  died: 4,  dead: 27,331

Oct 18:  real: 861,337,  official: 861,030,  infectious: 2,176,  died: 3,  dead: 27,334

Oct 19:  real: 861,405,  official: 861,112,  infectious: 2,079,  died: 3,  dead: 27,337

Oct 20:  real: 861,470,  official: 861,190,  infectious: 1,987,  died: 3,  dead: 27,340

Oct 21:  real: 861,532,  official: 861,265,  infectious: 1,898,  died: 3,  dead: 27,343

Oct 22:  real: 861,592,  official: 861,337,  infectious: 1,814,  died: 3,  dead: 27,346

Oct 23:  real: 861,649,  official: 861,405,  infectious: 1,733,  died: 3,  dead: 27,349

Oct 24:  real: 861,704,  official: 861,470,  infectious: 1,657,  died: 3,  dead: 27,352

Oct 25:  real: 861,756,  official: 861,532,  infectious: 1,584,  died: 2,  dead: 27,354

Oct 26:  real: 861,806,  official: 861,592,  infectious: 1,515,  died: 2,  dead: 27,356

Oct 27:  real: 861,854,  official: 861,649,  infectious: 1,449,  died: 2,  dead: 27,358

Oct 28:  real: 861,900,  official: 861,704,  infectious: 1,385,  died: 2,  dead: 27,360

Oct 29:  real: 861,944,  official: 861,756,  infectious: 1,325,  died: 2,  dead: 27,362

Oct 30:  real: 861,986,  official: 861,806,  infectious: 1,266,  died: 2,  dead: 27,364

Oct 31:  real: 862,026,  official: 861,854,  infectious: 1,211,  died: 2,  dead: 27,366

Nov  1:  real: 862,064,  official: 861,900,  infectious: 1,158,  died: 2,  dead: 27,368

Nov  2:  real: 862,100,  official: 861,944,  infectious: 1,108,  died: 1,  dead: 27,369

Nov  3:  real: 862,135,  official: 861,986,  infectious: 1,060,  died: 1,  dead: 27,370

Nov  4:  real: 862,168,  official: 862,026,  infectious: 1,013,  died: 1,  dead: 27,371

Nov  5:  real: 862,200,  official: 862,064,  infectious: 969,  died: 1,  dead: 27,372

Nov  6:  real: 862,231,  official: 862,100,  infectious: 927,  died: 1,  dead: 27,373

Nov  7:  real: 862,260,  official: 862,135,  infectious: 886,  died: 1,  dead: 27,374

Nov  8:  real: 862,288,  official: 862,168,  infectious: 848,  died: 1,  dead: 27,375

Nov  9:  real: 862,315,  official: 862,200,  infectious: 810,  died: 1,  dead: 27,376

Nov 10:  real: 862,340,  official: 862,231,  infectious: 775,  died: 1,  dead: 27,377

Nov 11:  real: 862,364,  official: 862,260,  infectious: 743,  died: 1,  dead: 27,378

Nov 12:  real: 862,387,  official: 862,288,  infectious: 712,  died: 1,  dead: 27,379

Nov 13:  real: 862,409,  official: 862,315,  infectious: 681,  died: 1,  dead: 27,380

Nov 14:  real: 862,430,  official: 862,340,  infectious: 651,  died: 1,  dead: 27,381

Nov 15:  real: 862,450,  official: 862,364,  infectious: 623,  died: 1,  dead: 27,382

Nov 16:  real: 862,470,  official: 862,387,  infectious: 596,  died: 1,  dead: 27,383

Nov 17:  real: 862,489,  official: 862,409,  infectious: 570,  died: 1,  dead: 27,384

Nov 18:  real: 862,507,  official: 862,430,  infectious: 546,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 19:  real: 862,524,  official: 862,450,  infectious: 522,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 20:  real: 862,540,  official: 862,470,  infectious: 499,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 21:  real: 862,556,  official: 862,489,  infectious: 478,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 22:  real: 862,571,  official: 862,507,  infectious: 457,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 23:  real: 862,585,  official: 862,524,  infectious: 437,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 24:  real: 862,599,  official: 862,540,  infectious: 418,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 25:  real: 862,612,  official: 862,556,  infectious: 399,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 26:  real: 862,625,  official: 862,571,  infectious: 382,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 27:  real: 862,637,  official: 862,585,  infectious: 366,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 28:  real: 862,649,  official: 862,599,  infectious: 351,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 29:  real: 862,660,  official: 862,612,  infectious: 337,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Nov 30:  real: 862,671,  official: 862,625,  infectious: 324,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  1:  real: 862,681,  official: 862,637,  infectious: 311,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  2:  real: 862,691,  official: 862,649,  infectious: 299,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  3:  real: 862,700,  official: 862,660,  infectious: 287,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  4:  real: 862,709,  official: 862,671,  infectious: 276,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  5:  real: 862,718,  official: 862,681,  infectious: 265,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  6:  real: 862,726,  official: 862,691,  infectious: 256,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  7:  real: 862,734,  official: 862,700,  infectious: 247,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  8:  real: 862,742,  official: 862,709,  infectious: 237,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec  9:  real: 862,749,  official: 862,718,  infectious: 227,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 10:  real: 862,756,  official: 862,726,  infectious: 218,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 11:  real: 862,763,  official: 862,734,  infectious: 209,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 12:  real: 862,770,  official: 862,742,  infectious: 201,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 13:  real: 862,776,  official: 862,749,  infectious: 193,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 14:  real: 862,782,  official: 862,756,  infectious: 186,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 15:  real: 862,788,  official: 862,763,  infectious: 179,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 16:  real: 862,794,  official: 862,770,  infectious: 172,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 17:  real: 862,799,  official: 862,776,  infectious: 165,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 18:  real: 862,804,  official: 862,782,  infectious: 158,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 19:  real: 862,809,  official: 862,788,  infectious: 151,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 20:  real: 862,814,  official: 862,794,  infectious: 144,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 21:  real: 862,819,  official: 862,799,  infectious: 138,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 22:  real: 862,823,  official: 862,804,  infectious: 132,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 23:  real: 862,827,  official: 862,809,  infectious: 127,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 24:  real: 862,831,  official: 862,814,  infectious: 122,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 25:  real: 862,835,  official: 862,819,  infectious: 118,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 26:  real: 862,839,  official: 862,823,  infectious: 114,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 27:  real: 862,843,  official: 862,827,  infectious: 110,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 28:  real: 862,847,  official: 862,831,  infectious: 107,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 29:  real: 862,850,  official: 862,835,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 30:  real: 862,853,  official: 862,839,  infectious: 101,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

Dec 31:  real: 862,856,  official: 862,843,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 27,384

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        282:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     27,384:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     27,384:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 103.29%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0329
Official uninf: 899,394,780 / Adult Pop.: 900,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.93%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0007
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 103.29%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0329