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COVID-19 Forecast for Iraq, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
55 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Iraq HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 55 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Iraq run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Iraq are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     1,000 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         88:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        973:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,348:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      4,321:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Iraq COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.043, at 104.31% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 40,  official: 19,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 46,  official: 27,  infectious: 46,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 54,  official: 32,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 65,  official: 37,  infectious: 65,  died: 2,  dead: 2

Mar  5:  real: 71,  official: 40,  infectious: 71,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar  6:  real: 71,  official: 46,  infectious: 71,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar  7:  real: 71,  official: 54,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar  8:  real: 83,  official: 65,  infectious: 83,  died: 2,  dead: 6

Mar  9:  real: 101,  official: 71,  infectious: 101,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Mar 10:  real: 110,  official: 71,  infectious: 110,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 11:  real: 124,  official: 71,  infectious: 124,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 12:  real: 133,  official: 83,  infectious: 133,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Mar 13:  real: 154,  official: 101,  infectious: 154,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Mar 14:  real: 164,  official: 110,  infectious: 164,  died: 1,  dead: 10

Mar 15:  real: 192,  official: 124,  infectious: 192,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Mar 16:  real: 208,  official: 133,  infectious: 208,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Mar 17:  real: 214,  official: 154,  infectious: 214,  died: 1,  dead: 11

Mar 18:  real: 233,  official: 164,  infectious: 233,  died: 1,  dead: 12

Mar 19:  real: 266,  official: 192,  infectious: 266,  died: 1,  dead: 13

Mar 20:  real: 316,  official: 208,  infectious: 316,  died: 4,  dead: 17

Mar 21:  real: 346,  official: 214,  infectious: 346,  died: 0,  dead: 17

Mar 22:  real: 382,  official: 233,  infectious: 382,  died: 3,  dead: 20

Mar 23:  real: 458,  official: 266,  infectious: 458,  died: 3,  dead: 23

Mar 24:  real: 506,  official: 316,  infectious: 506,  died: 4,  dead: 27

Mar 25:  real: 547,  official: 346,  infectious: 547,  died: 2,  dead: 29

Mar 26:  real: 630,  official: 382,  infectious: 630,  died: 7,  dead: 36

Mar 27:  real: 694,  official: 458,  infectious: 694,  died: 4,  dead: 40

Mar 28:  real: 728,  official: 506,  infectious: 728,  died: 2,  dead: 42

Mar 29:  real: 772,  official: 547,  infectious: 772,  died: 0,  dead: 42

Mar 30:  real: 820,  official: 630,  infectious: 820,  died: 4,  dead: 46

Mar 31:  real: 878,  official: 694,  infectious: 878,  died: 4,  dead: 50

Apr  1:  real: 961,  official: 728,  infectious: 961,  died: 2,  dead: 52

Apr  2:  real: 1,031,  official: 772,  infectious: 1,031,  died: 2,  dead: 54

Apr  3:  real: 1,122,  official: 820,  infectious: 1,122,  died: 0,  dead: 54

Apr  4:  real: 1,202,  official: 878,  infectious: 1,202,  died: 2,  dead: 56

Apr  5:  real: 1,232,  official: 961,  infectious: 1,232,  died: 5,  dead: 61

Apr  6:  real: 1,279,  official: 1,031,  infectious: 1,279,  died: 3,  dead: 64

Apr  7:  real: 1,318,  official: 1,122,  infectious: 1,318,  died: 1,  dead: 65

Apr  8:  real: 1,352,  official: 1,202,  infectious: 1,352,  died: 4,  dead: 69

Apr  9:  real: 1,378,  official: 1,232,  infectious: 1,378,  died: 0,  dead: 69

Apr 10:  real: 1,400,  official: 1,279,  infectious: 1,400,  died: 1,  dead: 70

Apr 11:  real: 1,415,  official: 1,318,  infectious: 1,415,  died: 2,  dead: 72

Apr 12:  real: 1,434,  official: 1,352,  infectious: 1,434,  died: 4,  dead: 76

Apr 13:  real: 1,482,  official: 1,378,  infectious: 1,482,  died: 2,  dead: 78

Apr 14:  real: 1,513,  official: 1,400,  infectious: 1,513,  died: 0,  dead: 78

Apr 15:  real: 1,539,  official: 1,415,  infectious: 1,539,  died: 1,  dead: 79

Apr 16:  real: 1,574,  official: 1,434,  infectious: 1,574,  died: 1,  dead: 80

Apr 17:  real: 1,602,  official: 1,482,  infectious: 1,602,  died: 1,  dead: 81

Apr 18:  real: 1,631,  official: 1,513,  infectious: 1,631,  died: 1,  dead: 82

Apr 19:  real: 1,677,  official: 1,539,  infectious: 1,677,  died: 0,  dead: 82

Apr 20:  real: 1,708,  official: 1,574,  infectious: 1,708,  died: 0,  dead: 82

Apr 21:  real: 1,763,  official: 1,602,  infectious: 1,763,  died: 1,  dead: 83

Apr 22:  real: 1,820,  official: 1,631,  infectious: 1,820,  died: 0,  dead: 83

Apr 23:  real: 1,847,  official: 1,677,  infectious: 1,847,  died: 0,  dead: 83

Apr 24:  real: 1,928,  official: 1,708,  infectious: 1,928,  died: 3,  dead: 86

Apr 25:  real: 2,003,  official: 1,763,  infectious: 2,003,  died: 0,  dead: 86

Apr 26:  real: 2,085,  official: 1,820,  infectious: 2,085,  died: 1,  dead: 87

Apr 27:  real: 2,153,  official: 1,847,  infectious: 2,153,  died: 1,  dead: 88

Apr 28:  real: 2,219,  official: 1,928,  infectious: 2,219,  died: 2,  dead: 90

Apr 29:  real: 2,296,  official: 2,003,  infectious: 2,296,  died: 2,  dead: 92

Apr 30:  real: 2,346,  official: 2,085,  infectious: 2,346,  died: 1,  dead: 93

May  1:  real: 2,431,  official: 2,153,  infectious: 2,431,  died: 1,  dead: 94

May  2:  real: 2,480,  official: 2,219,  infectious: 2,480,  died: 1,  dead: 95

May  3:  real: 2,543,  official: 2,296,  infectious: 2,543,  died: 2,  dead: 97

May  4:  real: 2,603,  official: 2,346,  infectious: 2,603,  died: 1,  dead: 98

May  5:  real: 2,679,  official: 2,431,  infectious: 2,679,  died: 4,  dead: 102

May  6:  real: 2,767,  official: 2,480,  infectious: 2,767,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May  7:  real: 2,818,  official: 2,543,  infectious: 2,818,  died: 0,  dead: 102

May  8:  real: 2,913,  official: 2,603,  infectious: 2,913,  died: 2,  dead: 104

May  9:  real: 3,032,  official: 2,679,  infectious: 3,032,  died: 3,  dead: 107

May 10:  real: 3,143,  official: 2,767,  infectious: 3,143,  died: 2,  dead: 109

May 11:  real: 3,193,  official: 2,818,  infectious: 3,193,  died: 1,  dead: 110

May 12:  real: 3,260,  official: 2,913,  infectious: 3,260,  died: 2,  dead: 112

May 13:  real: 3,404,  official: 3,032,  infectious: 3,404,  died: 3,  dead: 115

May 14:  real: 3,554,  official: 3,143,  infectious: 3,554,  died: 0,  dead: 115

May 15:  real: 3,611,  official: 3,193,  infectious: 3,611,  died: 2,  dead: 117

May 16:  real: 3,724,  official: 3,260,  infectious: 3,724,  died: 4,  dead: 121

May 17:  real: 3,877,  official: 3,404,  infectious: 3,877,  died: 2,  dead: 123

May 18:  real: 3,964,  official: 3,554,  infectious: 3,964,  died: 4,  dead: 127

May 19:  real: 4,272,  official: 3,611,  infectious: 4,272,  died: 4,  dead: 131

May 20:  real: 4,469,  official: 3,724,  infectious: 4,469,  died: 3,  dead: 134

May 21:  real: 4,632,  official: 3,877,  infectious: 4,632,  died: 6,  dead: 140

May 22:  real: 4,848,  official: 3,964,  infectious: 4,848,  died: 7,  dead: 147

May 23:  real: 5,135,  official: 4,272,  infectious: 5,135,  died: 5,  dead: 152

May 24:  real: 5,457,  official: 4,469,  infectious: 5,457,  died: 8,  dead: 160

May 25:  real: 5,873,  official: 4,632,  infectious: 5,873,  died: 3,  dead: 163

May 26:  real: 6,179,  official: 4,848,  infectious: 6,179,  died: 6,  dead: 169

May 27:  real: 6,439,  official: 5,135,  infectious: 6,439,  died: 6,  dead: 175

May 28:  real: 6,868,  official: 5,457,  infectious: 6,868,  died: 4,  dead: 179

May 29:  real: 7,387,  official: 5,873,  infectious: 7,387,  died: 6,  dead: 185

May 30:  real: 8,168,  official: 6,179,  infectious: 8,168,  died: 10,  dead: 195

May 31:  real: 8,840,  official: 6,439,  infectious: 8,840,  died: 10,  dead: 205

Jun  1:  real: 9,846,  official: 6,868,  infectious: 9,846,  died: 10,  dead: 215

Jun  2:  real: 11,098,  official: 7,387,  infectious: 11,098,  died: 20,  dead: 235

Jun  3:  real: 12,366,  official: 8,168,  infectious: 12,366,  died: 21,  dead: 256

Jun  4:  real: 13,481,  official: 8,840,  infectious: 13,481,  died: 15,  dead: 271

Jun  5:  real: 14,268,  official: 9,846,  infectious: 14,268,  died: 14,  dead: 285

Jun  6:  real: 15,414,  official: 11,098,  infectious: 15,414,  died: 33,  dead: 318

Jun  7:  real: 16,675,  official: 12,366,  infectious: 16,675,  died: 28,  dead: 346

Jun  8:  real: 17,770,  official: 13,481,  infectious: 17,770,  died: 24,  dead: 370

Jun  9:  real: 18,950,  official: 14,268,  infectious: 18,950,  died: 22,  dead: 392

Jun 10:  real: 20,209,  official: 15,414,  infectious: 20,209,  died: 34,  dead: 426

Jun 11:  real: 21,315,  official: 16,675,  infectious: 21,315,  died: 31,  dead: 457

Jun 12:  real: 22,700,  official: 17,770,  infectious: 22,700,  died: 39,  dead: 496

Jun 13:  real: 24,254,  official: 18,950,  infectious: 24,254,  died: 53,  dead: 549

Jun 14:  real: 25,717,  official: 20,209,  infectious: 25,717,  died: 58,  dead: 607

Jun 15:  real: 27,352,  official: 21,315,  infectious: 27,352,  died: 45,  dead: 652

Jun 16:  real: 29,222,  official: 22,700,  infectious: 29,222,  died: 60,  dead: 712

Jun 17:  real: 30,868,  official: 24,254,  infectious: 30,868,  died: 61,  dead: 773

Jun 18:  real: 32,676,  official: 25,717,  infectious: 32,676,  died: 83,  dead: 856

Jun 19:  real: 34,502,  official: 27,352,  infectious: 34,502,  died: 69,  dead: 925

Jun 20:  real: 36,702,  official: 29,222,  infectious: 36,702,  died: 88,  dead: 1,013

Jun 21:  real: 39,139,  official: 30,868,  infectious: 39,139,  died: 87,  dead: 1,100

Jun 22:  real: 41,193,  official: 32,676,  infectious: 41,193,  died: 67,  dead: 1,167

Jun 23:  real: 43,262,  official: 34,502,  infectious: 43,262,  died: 84,  dead: 1,251

Jun 24:  real: 45,402,  official: 36,702,  infectious: 45,402,  died: 79,  dead: 1,330

Jun 25:  real: 47,151,  official: 39,139,  infectious: 47,151,  died: 107,  dead: 1,437

Jun 26:  real: 49,109,  official: 41,193,  infectious: 49,109,  died: 122,  dead: 1,559

Jun 27:  real: 51,524,  official: 43,262,  infectious: 51,524,  died: 101,  dead: 1,660

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 52,807,  official: 45,402,  infectious: 29,799,  died: 30,  dead: 1,690


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 54,148,  official: 47,151,  infectious: 31,143,  died: 34,  dead: 1,724

Jun 30:  real: 55,495,  official: 49,109,  infectious: 31,276,  died: 28,  dead: 1,752

Jul  1:  real: 56,845,  official: 51,524,  infectious: 31,345,  died: 28,  dead: 1,780

Jul  2:  real: 58,194,  official: 52,807,  infectious: 31,321,  died: 29,  dead: 1,809

Jul  3:  real: 59,547,  official: 54,148,  infectious: 31,423,  died: 80,  dead: 1,889

Jul  4:  real: 60,894,  official: 55,495,  infectious: 31,293,  died: 88,  dead: 1,977

Jul  5:  real: 62,229,  official: 56,845,  infectious: 31,005,  died: 85,  dead: 2,062

Jul  6:  real: 63,556,  official: 58,194,  infectious: 30,828,  died: 52,  dead: 2,114

Jul  7:  real: 64,869,  official: 59,547,  infectious: 30,500,  died: 54,  dead: 2,168

Jul  8:  real: 66,158,  official: 60,894,  infectious: 29,942,  died: 18,  dead: 2,186

Jul  9:  real: 67,438,  official: 62,229,  infectious: 29,729,  died: 9,  dead: 2,195

Jul 10:  real: 68,700,  official: 63,556,  infectious: 29,313,  died: 53,  dead: 2,248

Jul 11:  real: 69,942,  official: 64,869,  infectious: 28,866,  died: 55,  dead: 2,303

Jul 12:  real: 71,151,  official: 66,158,  infectious: 28,092,  died: 75,  dead: 2,378

Jul 13:  real: 72,317,  official: 67,438,  infectious: 27,088,  died: 84,  dead: 2,462

Jul 14:  real: 73,451,  official: 68,700,  infectious: 26,355,  died: 62,  dead: 2,524

Jul 15:  real: 74,552,  official: 69,942,  infectious: 25,580,  died: 60,  dead: 2,584

Jul 16:  real: 75,616,  official: 71,151,  infectious: 24,730,  died: 39,  dead: 2,623

Jul 17:  real: 76,656,  official: 72,317,  infectious: 24,169,  died: 32,  dead: 2,655

Jul 18:  real: 77,663,  official: 73,451,  infectious: 23,399,  died: 44,  dead: 2,699

Jul 19:  real: 78,621,  official: 74,552,  infectious: 22,257,  died: 38,  dead: 2,737

Jul 20:  real: 79,567,  official: 75,616,  infectious: 21,980,  died: 49,  dead: 2,786

Jul 21:  real: 80,496,  official: 76,656,  infectious: 21,592,  died: 55,  dead: 2,841

Jul 22:  real: 81,407,  official: 77,663,  infectious: 21,186,  died: 55,  dead: 2,896

Jul 23:  real: 82,301,  official: 78,621,  infectious: 20,781,  died: 47,  dead: 2,943

Jul 24:  real: 83,178,  official: 79,567,  infectious: 20,375,  died: 32,  dead: 2,975

Jul 25:  real: 84,037,  official: 80,496,  infectious: 19,958,  died: 30,  dead: 3,005

Jul 26:  real: 84,877,  official: 81,407,  infectious: 19,526,  died: 27,  dead: 3,032


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 27:  real: 85,699,  official: 82,301,  infectious: 19,100,  died: 25,  dead: 3,057

Jul 28:  real: 86,502,  official: 83,178,  infectious: 18,663,  died: 36,  dead: 3,093

Jul 29:  real: 87,286,  official: 84,037,  infectious: 18,233,  died: 28,  dead: 3,121

Jul 30:  real: 88,052,  official: 84,877,  infectious: 17,813,  died: 25,  dead: 3,146

Jul 31:  real: 88,800,  official: 85,699,  infectious: 17,385,  died: 28,  dead: 3,174

Aug  1:  real: 89,529,  official: 86,502,  infectious: 16,957,  died: 25,  dead: 3,199

Aug  2:  real: 90,240,  official: 87,286,  infectious: 16,531,  died: 28,  dead: 3,227

Aug  3:  real: 90,933,  official: 88,052,  infectious: 16,115,  died: 28,  dead: 3,255

Aug  4:  real: 91,609,  official: 88,800,  infectious: 15,719,  died: 28,  dead: 3,283

Aug  5:  real: 92,268,  official: 89,529,  infectious: 15,334,  died: 26,  dead: 3,309

Aug  6:  real: 92,911,  official: 90,240,  infectious: 14,963,  died: 26,  dead: 3,335

Aug  7:  real: 93,539,  official: 90,933,  infectious: 14,608,  died: 25,  dead: 3,360

Aug  8:  real: 94,152,  official: 91,609,  infectious: 14,260,  died: 25,  dead: 3,385

Aug  9:  real: 94,751,  official: 92,268,  infectious: 13,927,  died: 24,  dead: 3,409

Aug 10:  real: 95,337,  official: 92,911,  infectious: 13,620,  died: 24,  dead: 3,433

Aug 11:  real: 95,909,  official: 93,539,  infectious: 13,313,  died: 23,  dead: 3,456

Aug 12:  real: 96,468,  official: 94,152,  infectious: 13,011,  died: 23,  dead: 3,479

Aug 13:  real: 97,015,  official: 94,751,  infectious: 12,713,  died: 22,  dead: 3,501

Aug 14:  real: 97,549,  official: 95,337,  infectious: 12,419,  died: 22,  dead: 3,523

Aug 15:  real: 98,070,  official: 95,909,  infectious: 12,130,  died: 21,  dead: 3,544

Aug 16:  real: 98,579,  official: 96,468,  infectious: 11,845,  died: 21,  dead: 3,565

Aug 17:  real: 99,076,  official: 97,015,  infectious: 11,566,  died: 20,  dead: 3,585

Aug 18:  real: 99,561,  official: 97,549,  infectious: 11,292,  died: 20,  dead: 3,605

Aug 19:  real: 100,035,  official: 98,070,  infectious: 11,024,  died: 19,  dead: 3,624

Aug 20:  real: 100,498,  official: 98,579,  infectious: 10,762,  died: 19,  dead: 3,643

Aug 21:  real: 100,950,  official: 99,076,  infectious: 10,507,  died: 18,  dead: 3,661

Aug 22:  real: 101,391,  official: 99,561,  infectious: 10,258,  died: 18,  dead: 3,679

Aug 23:  real: 101,822,  official: 100,035,  infectious: 10,016,  died: 17,  dead: 3,696

Aug 24:  real: 102,242,  official: 100,498,  infectious: 9,779,  died: 17,  dead: 3,713

Aug 25:  real: 102,652,  official: 100,950,  infectious: 9,550,  died: 17,  dead: 3,730

Aug 26:  real: 103,053,  official: 101,391,  infectious: 9,326,  died: 16,  dead: 3,746

Aug 27:  real: 103,444,  official: 101,822,  infectious: 9,108,  died: 15,  dead: 3,761

Aug 28:  real: 103,826,  official: 102,242,  infectious: 8,895,  died: 15,  dead: 3,776

Aug 29:  real: 104,199,  official: 102,652,  infectious: 8,687,  died: 15,  dead: 3,791

Aug 30:  real: 104,564,  official: 103,053,  infectious: 8,485,  died: 14,  dead: 3,805

Aug 31:  real: 104,920,  official: 103,444,  infectious: 8,287,  died: 14,  dead: 3,819

Sep  1:  real: 105,268,  official: 103,826,  infectious: 8,093,  died: 14,  dead: 3,833

Sep  2:  real: 105,608,  official: 104,199,  infectious: 7,905,  died: 13,  dead: 3,846

Sep  3:  real: 105,940,  official: 104,564,  infectious: 7,720,  died: 13,  dead: 3,859

Sep  4:  real: 106,264,  official: 104,920,  infectious: 7,539,  died: 13,  dead: 3,872

Sep  5:  real: 106,580,  official: 105,268,  infectious: 7,362,  died: 13,  dead: 3,885

Sep  6:  real: 106,889,  official: 105,608,  infectious: 7,190,  died: 12,  dead: 3,897

Sep  7:  real: 107,191,  official: 105,940,  infectious: 7,020,  died: 12,  dead: 3,909

Sep  8:  real: 107,486,  official: 106,264,  infectious: 6,856,  died: 12,  dead: 3,921

Sep  9:  real: 107,774,  official: 106,580,  infectious: 6,696,  died: 11,  dead: 3,932

Sep 10:  real: 108,055,  official: 106,889,  infectious: 6,539,  died: 11,  dead: 3,943

Sep 11:  real: 108,329,  official: 107,191,  infectious: 6,385,  died: 11,  dead: 3,954

Sep 12:  real: 108,597,  official: 107,486,  infectious: 6,236,  died: 11,  dead: 3,965

Sep 13:  real: 108,859,  official: 107,774,  infectious: 6,090,  died: 10,  dead: 3,975

Sep 14:  real: 109,115,  official: 108,055,  infectious: 5,947,  died: 10,  dead: 3,985

Sep 15:  real: 109,365,  official: 108,329,  infectious: 5,808,  died: 10,  dead: 3,995

Sep 16:  real: 109,609,  official: 108,597,  infectious: 5,673,  died: 9,  dead: 4,004

Sep 17:  real: 109,847,  official: 108,859,  infectious: 5,540,  died: 9,  dead: 4,013

Sep 18:  real: 110,080,  official: 109,115,  infectious: 5,411,  died: 9,  dead: 4,022

Sep 19:  real: 110,307,  official: 109,365,  infectious: 5,285,  died: 9,  dead: 4,031

Sep 20:  real: 110,529,  official: 109,609,  infectious: 5,163,  died: 8,  dead: 4,039

Sep 21:  real: 110,746,  official: 109,847,  infectious: 5,043,  died: 8,  dead: 4,047

Sep 22:  real: 110,958,  official: 110,080,  infectious: 4,927,  died: 8,  dead: 4,055

Sep 23:  real: 111,165,  official: 110,307,  infectious: 4,812,  died: 8,  dead: 4,063

Sep 24:  real: 111,367,  official: 110,529,  infectious: 4,699,  died: 8,  dead: 4,071

Sep 25:  real: 111,564,  official: 110,746,  infectious: 4,589,  died: 8,  dead: 4,079

Sep 26:  real: 111,757,  official: 110,958,  infectious: 4,482,  died: 7,  dead: 4,086

Sep 27:  real: 111,945,  official: 111,165,  infectious: 4,378,  died: 7,  dead: 4,093

Sep 28:  real: 112,129,  official: 111,367,  infectious: 4,277,  died: 7,  dead: 4,100

Sep 29:  real: 112,308,  official: 111,564,  infectious: 4,177,  died: 7,  dead: 4,107

Sep 30:  real: 112,483,  official: 111,757,  infectious: 4,080,  died: 7,  dead: 4,114

Oct  1:  real: 112,654,  official: 111,945,  infectious: 3,983,  died: 7,  dead: 4,121

Oct  2:  real: 112,821,  official: 112,129,  infectious: 3,890,  died: 6,  dead: 4,127

Oct  3:  real: 112,984,  official: 112,308,  infectious: 3,799,  died: 6,  dead: 4,133

Oct  4:  real: 113,143,  official: 112,483,  infectious: 3,710,  died: 6,  dead: 4,139

Oct  5:  real: 113,299,  official: 112,654,  infectious: 3,623,  died: 6,  dead: 4,145

Oct  6:  real: 113,451,  official: 112,821,  infectious: 3,539,  died: 6,  dead: 4,151

Oct  7:  real: 113,600,  official: 112,984,  infectious: 3,457,  died: 6,  dead: 4,157

Oct  8:  real: 113,745,  official: 113,143,  infectious: 3,376,  died: 6,  dead: 4,163

Oct  9:  real: 113,887,  official: 113,299,  infectious: 3,298,  died: 5,  dead: 4,168

Oct 10:  real: 114,025,  official: 113,451,  infectious: 3,221,  died: 5,  dead: 4,173

Oct 11:  real: 114,160,  official: 113,600,  infectious: 3,146,  died: 5,  dead: 4,178

Oct 12:  real: 114,292,  official: 113,745,  infectious: 3,073,  died: 5,  dead: 4,183

Oct 13:  real: 114,421,  official: 113,887,  infectious: 3,002,  died: 4,  dead: 4,187

Oct 14:  real: 114,547,  official: 114,025,  infectious: 2,931,  died: 4,  dead: 4,191

Oct 15:  real: 114,670,  official: 114,160,  infectious: 2,863,  died: 4,  dead: 4,195

Oct 16:  real: 114,790,  official: 114,292,  infectious: 2,797,  died: 4,  dead: 4,199

Oct 17:  real: 114,907,  official: 114,421,  infectious: 2,733,  died: 4,  dead: 4,203

Oct 18:  real: 115,022,  official: 114,547,  infectious: 2,668,  died: 4,  dead: 4,207

Oct 19:  real: 115,134,  official: 114,670,  infectious: 2,606,  died: 4,  dead: 4,211

Oct 20:  real: 115,243,  official: 114,790,  infectious: 2,545,  died: 4,  dead: 4,215

Oct 21:  real: 115,350,  official: 114,907,  infectious: 2,487,  died: 4,  dead: 4,219

Oct 22:  real: 115,454,  official: 115,022,  infectious: 2,429,  died: 3,  dead: 4,222

Oct 23:  real: 115,556,  official: 115,134,  infectious: 2,373,  died: 3,  dead: 4,225

Oct 24:  real: 115,656,  official: 115,243,  infectious: 2,317,  died: 3,  dead: 4,228

Oct 25:  real: 115,753,  official: 115,350,  infectious: 2,264,  died: 3,  dead: 4,231

Oct 26:  real: 115,848,  official: 115,454,  infectious: 2,212,  died: 3,  dead: 4,234

Oct 27:  real: 115,941,  official: 115,556,  infectious: 2,161,  died: 3,  dead: 4,237

Oct 28:  real: 116,032,  official: 115,656,  infectious: 2,111,  died: 3,  dead: 4,240

Oct 29:  real: 116,121,  official: 115,753,  infectious: 2,062,  died: 3,  dead: 4,243

Oct 30:  real: 116,208,  official: 115,848,  infectious: 2,015,  died: 3,  dead: 4,246

Oct 31:  real: 116,293,  official: 115,941,  infectious: 1,969,  died: 3,  dead: 4,249

Nov  1:  real: 116,376,  official: 116,032,  infectious: 1,925,  died: 3,  dead: 4,252

Nov  2:  real: 116,457,  official: 116,121,  infectious: 1,881,  died: 3,  dead: 4,255

Nov  3:  real: 116,536,  official: 116,208,  infectious: 1,837,  died: 2,  dead: 4,257

Nov  4:  real: 116,613,  official: 116,293,  infectious: 1,796,  died: 2,  dead: 4,259

Nov  5:  real: 116,688,  official: 116,376,  infectious: 1,755,  died: 2,  dead: 4,261

Nov  6:  real: 116,762,  official: 116,457,  infectious: 1,715,  died: 2,  dead: 4,263

Nov  7:  real: 116,834,  official: 116,536,  infectious: 1,676,  died: 2,  dead: 4,265

Nov  8:  real: 116,904,  official: 116,613,  infectious: 1,638,  died: 2,  dead: 4,267

Nov  9:  real: 116,973,  official: 116,688,  infectious: 1,600,  died: 2,  dead: 4,269

Nov 10:  real: 117,040,  official: 116,762,  infectious: 1,563,  died: 2,  dead: 4,271

Nov 11:  real: 117,106,  official: 116,834,  infectious: 1,528,  died: 2,  dead: 4,273

Nov 12:  real: 117,170,  official: 116,904,  infectious: 1,492,  died: 2,  dead: 4,275

Nov 13:  real: 117,233,  official: 116,973,  infectious: 1,458,  died: 2,  dead: 4,277

Nov 14:  real: 117,294,  official: 117,040,  infectious: 1,426,  died: 2,  dead: 4,279

Nov 15:  real: 117,354,  official: 117,106,  infectious: 1,394,  died: 2,  dead: 4,281

Nov 16:  real: 117,413,  official: 117,170,  infectious: 1,362,  died: 2,  dead: 4,283

Nov 17:  real: 117,470,  official: 117,233,  infectious: 1,331,  died: 2,  dead: 4,285

Nov 18:  real: 117,526,  official: 117,294,  infectious: 1,301,  died: 2,  dead: 4,287

Nov 19:  real: 117,581,  official: 117,354,  infectious: 1,271,  died: 2,  dead: 4,289

Nov 20:  real: 117,634,  official: 117,413,  infectious: 1,242,  died: 2,  dead: 4,291

Nov 21:  real: 117,686,  official: 117,470,  infectious: 1,214,  died: 1,  dead: 4,292

Nov 22:  real: 117,737,  official: 117,526,  infectious: 1,186,  died: 1,  dead: 4,293

Nov 23:  real: 117,787,  official: 117,581,  infectious: 1,159,  died: 1,  dead: 4,294

Nov 24:  real: 117,836,  official: 117,634,  infectious: 1,133,  died: 1,  dead: 4,295

Nov 25:  real: 117,884,  official: 117,686,  infectious: 1,107,  died: 1,  dead: 4,296

Nov 26:  real: 117,930,  official: 117,737,  infectious: 1,082,  died: 1,  dead: 4,297

Nov 27:  real: 117,975,  official: 117,787,  infectious: 1,059,  died: 1,  dead: 4,298

Nov 28:  real: 118,019,  official: 117,836,  infectious: 1,035,  died: 1,  dead: 4,299

Nov 29:  real: 118,062,  official: 117,884,  infectious: 1,011,  died: 1,  dead: 4,300

Nov 30:  real: 118,104,  official: 117,930,  infectious: 988,  died: 1,  dead: 4,301

Dec  1:  real: 118,145,  official: 117,975,  infectious: 966,  died: 1,  dead: 4,302

Dec  2:  real: 118,186,  official: 118,019,  infectious: 944,  died: 1,  dead: 4,303

Dec  3:  real: 118,226,  official: 118,062,  infectious: 922,  died: 1,  dead: 4,304

Dec  4:  real: 118,265,  official: 118,104,  infectious: 902,  died: 1,  dead: 4,305

Dec  5:  real: 118,303,  official: 118,145,  infectious: 882,  died: 1,  dead: 4,306

Dec  6:  real: 118,340,  official: 118,186,  infectious: 863,  died: 1,  dead: 4,307

Dec  7:  real: 118,376,  official: 118,226,  infectious: 844,  died: 1,  dead: 4,308

Dec  8:  real: 118,411,  official: 118,265,  infectious: 825,  died: 1,  dead: 4,309

Dec  9:  real: 118,446,  official: 118,303,  infectious: 806,  died: 1,  dead: 4,310

Dec 10:  real: 118,480,  official: 118,340,  infectious: 787,  died: 1,  dead: 4,311

Dec 11:  real: 118,513,  official: 118,376,  infectious: 769,  died: 1,  dead: 4,312

Dec 12:  real: 118,545,  official: 118,411,  infectious: 751,  died: 1,  dead: 4,313

Dec 13:  real: 118,576,  official: 118,446,  infectious: 733,  died: 1,  dead: 4,314

Dec 14:  real: 118,607,  official: 118,480,  infectious: 717,  died: 1,  dead: 4,315

Dec 15:  real: 118,637,  official: 118,513,  infectious: 701,  died: 1,  dead: 4,316

Dec 16:  real: 118,666,  official: 118,545,  infectious: 686,  died: 1,  dead: 4,317

Dec 17:  real: 118,695,  official: 118,576,  infectious: 671,  died: 1,  dead: 4,318

Dec 18:  real: 118,723,  official: 118,607,  infectious: 656,  died: 1,  dead: 4,319

Dec 19:  real: 118,751,  official: 118,637,  infectious: 642,  died: 1,  dead: 4,320

Dec 20:  real: 118,778,  official: 118,666,  infectious: 628,  died: 1,  dead: 4,321

Dec 21:  real: 118,804,  official: 118,695,  infectious: 615,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 22:  real: 118,830,  official: 118,723,  infectious: 603,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 23:  real: 118,855,  official: 118,751,  infectious: 591,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 24:  real: 118,880,  official: 118,778,  infectious: 579,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 25:  real: 118,904,  official: 118,804,  infectious: 566,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 26:  real: 118,928,  official: 118,830,  infectious: 553,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 27:  real: 118,951,  official: 118,855,  infectious: 540,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 28:  real: 118,974,  official: 118,880,  infectious: 528,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 29:  real: 118,996,  official: 118,904,  infectious: 516,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 30:  real: 119,018,  official: 118,928,  infectious: 505,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

Dec 31:  real: 119,039,  official: 118,951,  infectious: 493,  died: 0,  dead: 4,321

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     1,000 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         88:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        973:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,348:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      4,321:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 104.31%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0431
Official uninf: 24,948,476 / Adult Pop.: 25,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.79%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0021
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 104.32%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0432