COVID-19 Forecast for UK, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
925 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL UK HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 925 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in UK run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in UK are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         19:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     43,712:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     43,712:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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UK COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.002, at 100.25% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 116,  official: 36,  infectious: 116,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 164,  official: 39,  infectious: 164,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 209,  official: 51,  infectious: 209,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 278,  official: 87,  infectious: 278,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 321,  official: 116,  infectious: 321,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  6:  real: 383,  official: 164,  infectious: 383,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  7:  real: 460,  official: 209,  infectious: 460,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  8:  real: 590,  official: 278,  infectious: 590,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar  9:  real: 798,  official: 321,  infectious: 798,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 10:  real: 1,140,  official: 383,  infectious: 1,140,  died: 4,  dead: 7

Mar 11:  real: 1,391,  official: 460,  infectious: 1,391,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 12:  real: 1,543,  official: 590,  infectious: 1,543,  died: 2,  dead: 9

Mar 13:  real: 1,950,  official: 798,  infectious: 1,950,  died: 1,  dead: 10

Mar 14:  real: 2,626,  official: 1,140,  infectious: 2,626,  died: 18,  dead: 28

Mar 15:  real: 3,269,  official: 1,391,  infectious: 3,269,  died: 15,  dead: 43

Mar 16:  real: 3,983,  official: 1,543,  infectious: 3,983,  died: 22,  dead: 65

Mar 17:  real: 5,018,  official: 1,950,  infectious: 5,018,  died: 16,  dead: 81

Mar 18:  real: 5,683,  official: 2,626,  infectious: 5,683,  died: 34,  dead: 115

Mar 19:  real: 6,650,  official: 3,269,  infectious: 6,650,  died: 43,  dead: 158

Mar 20:  real: 8,077,  official: 3,983,  infectious: 8,077,  died: 36,  dead: 194

Mar 21:  real: 9,529,  official: 5,018,  infectious: 9,529,  died: 56,  dead: 250

Mar 22:  real: 11,658,  official: 5,683,  infectious: 11,658,  died: 35,  dead: 285

Mar 23:  real: 14,543,  official: 6,650,  infectious: 14,543,  died: 74,  dead: 359

Mar 24:  real: 17,089,  official: 8,077,  infectious: 17,089,  died: 149,  dead: 508

Mar 25:  real: 19,522,  official: 9,529,  infectious: 19,522,  died: 186,  dead: 694

Mar 26:  real: 22,141,  official: 11,658,  infectious: 22,141,  died: 183,  dead: 877

Mar 27:  real: 25,150,  official: 14,543,  infectious: 25,150,  died: 284,  dead: 1,161

Mar 28:  real: 29,474,  official: 17,089,  infectious: 29,474,  died: 294,  dead: 1,455

Mar 29:  real: 33,718,  official: 19,522,  infectious: 33,718,  died: 214,  dead: 1,669

Mar 30:  real: 38,168,  official: 22,141,  infectious: 38,168,  died: 374,  dead: 2,043

Mar 31:  real: 41,903,  official: 25,150,  infectious: 41,903,  died: 382,  dead: 2,425

Apr  1:  real: 47,806,  official: 29,474,  infectious: 47,806,  died: 670,  dead: 3,095

Apr  2:  real: 51,608,  official: 33,718,  infectious: 51,608,  died: 652,  dead: 3,747

Apr  3:  real: 55,242,  official: 38,168,  infectious: 55,242,  died: 714,  dead: 4,461

Apr  4:  real: 60,733,  official: 41,903,  infectious: 60,733,  died: 760,  dead: 5,221

Apr  5:  real: 65,077,  official: 47,806,  infectious: 65,077,  died: 644,  dead: 5,865

Apr  6:  real: 73,758,  official: 51,608,  infectious: 73,758,  died: 568,  dead: 6,433

Apr  7:  real: 78,991,  official: 55,242,  infectious: 78,991,  died: 1,038,  dead: 7,471

Apr  8:  real: 84,279,  official: 60,733,  infectious: 84,279,  died: 1,034,  dead: 8,505

Apr  9:  real: 88,621,  official: 65,077,  infectious: 88,621,  died: 1,103,  dead: 9,608

Apr 10:  real: 93,873,  official: 73,758,  infectious: 93,873,  died: 1,152,  dead: 10,760

Apr 11:  real: 98,476,  official: 78,991,  infectious: 98,476,  died: 839,  dead: 11,599

Apr 12:  real: 103,093,  official: 84,279,  infectious: 103,093,  died: 686,  dead: 12,285

Apr 13:  real: 108,692,  official: 88,621,  infectious: 108,692,  died: 744,  dead: 13,029

Apr 14:  real: 114,217,  official: 93,873,  infectious: 114,217,  died: 1,044,  dead: 14,073

Apr 15:  real: 120,067,  official: 98,476,  infectious: 120,067,  died: 842,  dead: 14,915

Apr 16:  real: 124,743,  official: 103,093,  infectious: 124,743,  died: 1,029,  dead: 15,944

Apr 17:  real: 129,044,  official: 108,692,  infectious: 129,044,  died: 935,  dead: 16,879

Apr 18:  real: 133,495,  official: 114,217,  infectious: 133,495,  died: 1,115,  dead: 17,994

Apr 19:  real: 138,078,  official: 120,067,  infectious: 138,078,  died: 498,  dead: 18,492

Apr 20:  real: 143,464,  official: 124,743,  infectious: 143,464,  died: 559,  dead: 19,051

Apr 21:  real: 148,377,  official: 129,044,  infectious: 148,377,  died: 1,172,  dead: 20,223

Apr 22:  real: 152,840,  official: 133,495,  infectious: 152,840,  died: 837,  dead: 21,060

Apr 23:  real: 157,149,  official: 138,078,  infectious: 157,149,  died: 727,  dead: 21,787

Apr 24:  real: 161,145,  official: 143,464,  infectious: 161,145,  died: 1,005,  dead: 22,792

Apr 25:  real: 165,221,  official: 148,377,  infectious: 165,221,  died: 843,  dead: 23,635

Apr 26:  real: 171,253,  official: 152,840,  infectious: 171,253,  died: 420,  dead: 24,055

Apr 27:  real: 177,454,  official: 157,149,  infectious: 177,454,  died: 338,  dead: 24,393

Apr 28:  real: 182,260,  official: 161,145,  infectious: 182,260,  died: 909,  dead: 25,302

Apr 29:  real: 186,599,  official: 165,221,  infectious: 186,599,  died: 795,  dead: 26,097

Apr 30:  real: 190,584,  official: 171,253,  infectious: 190,584,  died: 674,  dead: 26,771

May  1:  real: 194,990,  official: 177,454,  infectious: 194,990,  died: 739,  dead: 27,510

May  2:  real: 201,101,  official: 182,260,  infectious: 201,101,  died: 621,  dead: 28,131

May  3:  real: 206,715,  official: 186,599,  infectious: 206,715,  died: 315,  dead: 28,446

May  4:  real: 211,364,  official: 190,584,  infectious: 211,364,  died: 288,  dead: 28,734

May  5:  real: 215,260,  official: 194,990,  infectious: 215,260,  died: 693,  dead: 29,427

May  6:  real: 219,183,  official: 201,101,  infectious: 219,183,  died: 649,  dead: 30,076

May  7:  real: 223,060,  official: 206,715,  infectious: 223,060,  died: 539,  dead: 30,615

May  8:  real: 226,463,  official: 211,364,  infectious: 226,463,  died: 626,  dead: 31,241

May  9:  real: 229,705,  official: 215,260,  infectious: 229,705,  died: 346,  dead: 31,587

May 10:  real: 233,151,  official: 219,183,  infectious: 233,151,  died: 268,  dead: 31,855

May 11:  real: 236,711,  official: 223,060,  infectious: 236,711,  died: 210,  dead: 32,065

May 12:  real: 240,161,  official: 226,463,  infectious: 240,161,  died: 627,  dead: 32,692

May 13:  real: 243,695,  official: 229,705,  infectious: 243,695,  died: 494,  dead: 33,186

May 14:  real: 246,406,  official: 233,151,  infectious: 246,406,  died: 428,  dead: 33,614

May 15:  real: 248,818,  official: 236,711,  infectious: 248,818,  died: 384,  dead: 33,998

May 16:  real: 250,332,  official: 240,161,  infectious: 250,332,  died: 468,  dead: 34,466

May 17:  real: 252,947,  official: 243,695,  infectious: 252,947,  died: 170,  dead: 34,636

May 18:  real: 256,234,  official: 246,406,  infectious: 256,234,  died: 160,  dead: 34,796

May 19:  real: 259,193,  official: 248,818,  infectious: 259,193,  died: 545,  dead: 35,341

May 20:  real: 261,598,  official: 250,332,  infectious: 261,598,  died: 363,  dead: 35,704

May 21:  real: 263,223,  official: 252,947,  infectious: 263,223,  died: 338,  dead: 36,042

May 22:  real: 265,227,  official: 256,234,  infectious: 265,227,  died: 351,  dead: 36,393

May 23:  real: 267,240,  official: 259,193,  infectious: 267,240,  died: 282,  dead: 36,675

May 24:  real: 269,127,  official: 261,598,  infectious: 269,127,  died: 441,  dead: 37,116

May 25:  real: 271,222,  official: 263,223,  infectious: 271,222,  died: 121,  dead: 37,237

May 26:  real: 272,826,  official: 265,227,  infectious: 272,826,  died: 136,  dead: 37,373

May 27:  real: 274,762,  official: 267,240,  infectious: 274,762,  died: 434,  dead: 37,807

May 28:  real: 276,332,  official: 269,127,  infectious: 276,332,  died: 413,  dead: 38,220

May 29:  real: 277,985,  official: 271,222,  infectious: 277,985,  died: 373,  dead: 38,593

May 30:  real: 279,856,  official: 272,826,  infectious: 279,856,  died: 226,  dead: 38,819

May 31:  real: 281,661,  official: 274,762,  infectious: 281,661,  died: 115,  dead: 38,934

Jun  1:  real: 283,311,  official: 276,332,  infectious: 283,311,  died: 111,  dead: 39,045

Jun  2:  real: 284,868,  official: 277,985,  infectious: 284,868,  died: 324,  dead: 39,369

Jun  3:  real: 286,194,  official: 279,856,  infectious: 286,194,  died: 359,  dead: 39,728

Jun  4:  real: 287,399,  official: 281,661,  infectious: 287,399,  died: 176,  dead: 39,904

Jun  5:  real: 289,140,  official: 283,311,  infectious: 289,140,  died: 357,  dead: 40,261

Jun  6:  real: 290,143,  official: 284,868,  infectious: 290,143,  died: 204,  dead: 40,465

Jun  7:  real: 291,409,  official: 286,194,  infectious: 291,409,  died: 77,  dead: 40,542

Jun  8:  real: 292,950,  official: 287,399,  infectious: 292,950,  died: 55,  dead: 40,597

Jun  9:  real: 294,375,  official: 289,140,  infectious: 294,375,  died: 286,  dead: 40,883

Jun 10:  real: 295,889,  official: 290,143,  infectious: 295,889,  died: 245,  dead: 41,128

Jun 11:  real: 296,857,  official: 291,409,  infectious: 296,857,  died: 151,  dead: 41,279

Jun 12:  real: 298,136,  official: 292,950,  infectious: 298,136,  died: 202,  dead: 41,481

Jun 13:  real: 299,251,  official: 294,375,  infectious: 299,251,  died: 181,  dead: 41,662

Jun 14:  real: 300,469,  official: 295,889,  infectious: 300,469,  died: 36,  dead: 41,698

Jun 15:  real: 301,815,  official: 296,857,  infectious: 301,815,  died: 38,  dead: 41,736

Jun 16:  real: 303,110,  official: 298,136,  infectious: 303,110,  died: 233,  dead: 41,969

Jun 17:  real: 304,331,  official: 299,251,  infectious: 304,331,  died: 184,  dead: 42,153

Jun 18:  real: 305,289,  official: 300,469,  infectious: 305,289,  died: 135,  dead: 42,288

Jun 19:  real: 306,210,  official: 301,815,  infectious: 306,210,  died: 173,  dead: 42,461

Jun 20:  real: 306,862,  official: 303,110,  infectious: 306,862,  died: 128,  dead: 42,589

Jun 21:  real: 307,980,  official: 304,331,  infectious: 307,980,  died: 43,  dead: 42,632

Jun 22:  real: 309,360,  official: 305,289,  infectious: 309,360,  died: 15,  dead: 42,647

Jun 23:  real: 310,250,  official: 306,210,  infectious: 310,250,  died: 280,  dead: 42,927

Jun 24:  real: 311,151,  official: 306,862,  infectious: 311,151,  died: 154,  dead: 43,081

Jun 25:  real: 311,965,  official: 307,980,  infectious: 311,965,  died: 149,  dead: 43,230

Jun 26:  real: 312,654,  official: 309,360,  infectious: 312,654,  died: 184,  dead: 43,414

Jun 27:  real: 313,483,  official: 310,250,  infectious: 313,483,  died: 100,  dead: 43,514

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 313,531,  official: 311,151,  infectious: 19,291,  died: 8,  dead: 43,522

Jun 29:  real: 313,579,  official: 311,965,  infectious: 19,085,  died: 15,  dead: 43,537

Jun 30:  real: 313,623,  official: 312,654,  infectious: 17,746,  died: 19,  dead: 43,556

Jul  1:  real: 313,664,  official: 313,483,  infectious: 16,528,  died: 12,  dead: 43,568

Jul  2:  real: 313,702,  official: 313,531,  infectious: 15,158,  died: 12,  dead: 43,580

Jul  3:  real: 313,738,  official: 313,579,  infectious: 14,196,  died: 11,  dead: 43,591

Jul  4:  real: 313,771,  official: 313,623,  infectious: 13,055,  died: 9,  dead: 43,600

Jul  5:  real: 313,801,  official: 313,664,  infectious: 12,044,  died: 11,  dead: 43,611

Jul  6:  real: 313,828,  official: 313,702,  infectious: 10,964,  died: 0,  dead: 43,611

Jul  7:  real: 313,853,  official: 313,738,  infectious: 9,793,  died: 8,  dead: 43,619

Jul  8:  real: 313,875,  official: 313,771,  infectious: 8,658,  died: 15,  dead: 43,634

Jul  9:  real: 313,894,  official: 313,801,  infectious: 7,696,  died: 19,  dead: 43,653

Jul 10:  real: 313,911,  official: 313,828,  infectious: 6,941,  died: 12,  dead: 43,665

Jul 11:  real: 313,927,  official: 313,853,  infectious: 6,214,  died: 12,  dead: 43,677

Jul 12:  real: 313,941,  official: 313,875,  infectious: 5,701,  died: 11,  dead: 43,688

Jul 13:  real: 313,953,  official: 313,894,  infectious: 4,815,  died: 9,  dead: 43,697

Jul 14:  real: 313,962,  official: 313,911,  infectious: 3,718,  died: 11,  dead: 43,708

Jul 15:  real: 313,970,  official: 313,927,  infectious: 3,011,  died: 1,  dead: 43,709

Jul 16:  real: 313,976,  official: 313,941,  infectious: 2,292,  died: 1,  dead: 43,710

Jul 17:  real: 313,980,  official: 313,953,  infectious: 1,642,  died: 1,  dead: 43,711

Jul 18:  real: 313,983,  official: 313,962,  infectious: 1,091,  died: 1,  dead: 43,712

Jul 19:  real: 313,984,  official: 313,970,  infectious: 428,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 20:  real: 313,985,  official: 313,976,  infectious: 390,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 21:  real: 313,986,  official: 313,980,  infectious: 350,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 22:  real: 313,987,  official: 313,983,  infectious: 313,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 23:  real: 313,988,  official: 313,984,  infectious: 279,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 24:  real: 313,989,  official: 313,985,  infectious: 247,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 25:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,986,  infectious: 217,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 26:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,987,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 27:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,988,  infectious: 165,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 28:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,989,  infectious: 143,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 29:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 122,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 30:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Jul 31:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  1:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 72,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  2:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  3:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 46,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  4:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  5:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  6:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  7:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  8:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug  9:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 10:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 11:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 12:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 13:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 14:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 15:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 16:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 17:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 18:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 19:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 20:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 21:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 22:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 23:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 24:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 25:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 26:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 27:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 28:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 29:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 30:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Aug 31:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  1:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  2:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  3:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  4:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  5:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  6:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  7:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  8:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep  9:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 10:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 11:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 12:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 13:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 14:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 15:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 16:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 17:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 18:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 19:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 20:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 21:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 22:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 23:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 24:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 25:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 26:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 27:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 28:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 29:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Sep 30:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  1:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  2:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  3:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  4:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  5:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  6:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  7:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  8:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct  9:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 10:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 11:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 12:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 13:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 14:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 15:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 16:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 17:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 18:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 19:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 20:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 21:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 22:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 23:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 24:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 25:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 26:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 27:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 28:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 29:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 30:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Oct 31:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  1:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  2:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  3:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  4:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  5:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  6:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  7:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  8:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov  9:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 10:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 11:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 12:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 13:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 14:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 15:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 16:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 17:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 18:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 19:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 20:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 21:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 22:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 23:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 24:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 25:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 26:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 27:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 28:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 29:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Nov 30:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  1:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  2:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  3:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  4:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  5:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  6:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  7:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  8:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec  9:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 10:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 11:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 12:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 13:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 14:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 15:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 16:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 17:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 18:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 19:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 20:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 21:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 22:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 23:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 24:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 25:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 26:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 27:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 28:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 29:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 30:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

Dec 31:  real: 313,990,  official: 313,990,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 43,712

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         19:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     43,712:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     43,712:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.25%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0025
Official uninf: 51,686,517 / Adult Pop.: 52,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.40%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0061
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.25%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0025