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COVID-19 Forecast for U.A.E., Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
263 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL U.A.E. HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 263 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in U.A.E. run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in U.A.E. are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        404:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        404:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
U.A.E. COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.009, at 100.88% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 28,  official: 21,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 45,  official: 21,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 45,  official: 27,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 45,  official: 28,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 59,  official: 28,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 74,  official: 45,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 74,  official: 45,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 85,  official: 45,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 85,  official: 59,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 85,  official: 74,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 98,  official: 74,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 98,  official: 85,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 113,  official: 85,  infectious: 113,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 113,  official: 85,  infectious: 113,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 140,  official: 98,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 140,  official: 98,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 153,  official: 113,  infectious: 153,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 153,  official: 113,  infectious: 153,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 198,  official: 140,  infectious: 198,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 248,  official: 140,  infectious: 248,  died: 2,  dead: 2

Mar 21:  real: 333,  official: 153,  infectious: 333,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 22:  real: 333,  official: 153,  infectious: 333,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 23:  real: 405,  official: 198,  infectious: 405,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 24:  real: 468,  official: 248,  infectious: 468,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 25:  real: 570,  official: 333,  infectious: 570,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 26:  real: 611,  official: 333,  infectious: 611,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 27:  real: 664,  official: 405,  infectious: 664,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 28:  real: 814,  official: 468,  infectious: 814,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 29:  real: 1,024,  official: 570,  infectious: 1,024,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 30:  real: 1,264,  official: 611,  infectious: 1,264,  died: 2,  dead: 5

Mar 31:  real: 1,505,  official: 664,  infectious: 1,505,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Apr  1:  real: 1,799,  official: 814,  infectious: 1,799,  died: 2,  dead: 8

Apr  2:  real: 2,076,  official: 1,024,  infectious: 2,076,  died: 0,  dead: 8

Apr  3:  real: 2,359,  official: 1,264,  infectious: 2,359,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Apr  4:  real: 2,659,  official: 1,505,  infectious: 2,659,  died: 1,  dead: 10

Apr  5:  real: 2,990,  official: 1,799,  infectious: 2,990,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr  6:  real: 3,360,  official: 2,076,  infectious: 3,360,  died: 1,  dead: 11

Apr  7:  real: 3,736,  official: 2,359,  infectious: 3,736,  died: 1,  dead: 12

Apr  8:  real: 4,123,  official: 2,659,  infectious: 4,123,  died: 0,  dead: 12

Apr  9:  real: 4,521,  official: 2,990,  infectious: 4,521,  died: 2,  dead: 14

Apr 10:  real: 4,933,  official: 3,360,  infectious: 4,933,  died: 2,  dead: 16

Apr 11:  real: 5,365,  official: 3,736,  infectious: 5,365,  died: 4,  dead: 20

Apr 12:  real: 5,825,  official: 4,123,  infectious: 5,825,  died: 2,  dead: 22

Apr 13:  real: 6,302,  official: 4,521,  infectious: 6,302,  died: 3,  dead: 25

Apr 14:  real: 6,302,  official: 4,933,  infectious: 6,302,  died: 3,  dead: 28

Apr 15:  real: 6,781,  official: 5,365,  infectious: 6,781,  died: 5,  dead: 33

Apr 16:  real: 7,265,  official: 5,825,  infectious: 7,265,  died: 2,  dead: 35

Apr 17:  real: 7,755,  official: 6,302,  infectious: 7,755,  died: 2,  dead: 37

Apr 18:  real: 8,238,  official: 6,302,  infectious: 8,238,  died: 0,  dead: 37

Apr 19:  real: 8,756,  official: 6,781,  infectious: 8,756,  died: 4,  dead: 41

Apr 20:  real: 9,281,  official: 7,265,  infectious: 9,281,  died: 2,  dead: 43

Apr 21:  real: 9,813,  official: 7,755,  infectious: 9,813,  died: 3,  dead: 46

Apr 22:  real: 10,349,  official: 8,238,  infectious: 10,349,  died: 6,  dead: 52

Apr 23:  real: 10,839,  official: 8,756,  infectious: 10,839,  died: 4,  dead: 56

Apr 24:  real: 11,380,  official: 9,281,  infectious: 11,380,  died: 8,  dead: 64

Apr 25:  real: 11,929,  official: 9,813,  infectious: 11,929,  died: 7,  dead: 71

Apr 26:  real: 12,481,  official: 10,349,  infectious: 12,481,  died: 5,  dead: 76

Apr 27:  real: 13,038,  official: 10,839,  infectious: 13,038,  died: 6,  dead: 82

Apr 28:  real: 13,599,  official: 11,380,  infectious: 13,599,  died: 7,  dead: 89

Apr 29:  real: 14,163,  official: 11,929,  infectious: 14,163,  died: 9,  dead: 98

Apr 30:  real: 14,730,  official: 12,481,  infectious: 14,730,  died: 7,  dead: 105

May  1:  real: 15,192,  official: 13,038,  infectious: 15,192,  died: 6,  dead: 111

May  2:  real: 15,738,  official: 13,599,  infectious: 15,738,  died: 8,  dead: 119

May  3:  real: 16,240,  official: 14,163,  infectious: 16,240,  died: 7,  dead: 126

May  4:  real: 16,793,  official: 14,730,  infectious: 16,793,  died: 11,  dead: 137

May  5:  real: 17,417,  official: 15,192,  infectious: 17,417,  died: 9,  dead: 146

May  6:  real: 18,198,  official: 15,738,  infectious: 18,198,  died: 11,  dead: 157

May  7:  real: 18,878,  official: 16,240,  infectious: 18,878,  died: 8,  dead: 165

May  8:  real: 19,661,  official: 16,793,  infectious: 19,661,  died: 9,  dead: 174

May  9:  real: 20,386,  official: 17,417,  infectious: 20,386,  died: 11,  dead: 185

May 10:  real: 21,084,  official: 18,198,  infectious: 21,084,  died: 13,  dead: 198

May 11:  real: 21,831,  official: 18,878,  infectious: 21,831,  died: 3,  dead: 201

May 12:  real: 22,627,  official: 19,661,  infectious: 22,627,  died: 2,  dead: 203

May 13:  real: 23,358,  official: 20,386,  infectious: 23,358,  died: 3,  dead: 206

May 14:  real: 24,190,  official: 21,084,  infectious: 24,190,  died: 2,  dead: 208

May 15:  real: 25,063,  official: 21,831,  infectious: 25,063,  died: 2,  dead: 210

May 16:  real: 26,004,  official: 22,627,  infectious: 26,004,  died: 4,  dead: 214

May 17:  real: 26,898,  official: 23,358,  infectious: 26,898,  died: 6,  dead: 220

May 18:  real: 27,892,  official: 24,190,  infectious: 27,892,  died: 4,  dead: 224

May 19:  real: 28,704,  official: 25,063,  infectious: 28,704,  died: 3,  dead: 227

May 20:  real: 29,485,  official: 26,004,  infectious: 29,485,  died: 6,  dead: 233

May 21:  real: 30,307,  official: 26,898,  infectious: 30,307,  died: 4,  dead: 237

May 22:  real: 31,086,  official: 27,892,  infectious: 31,086,  died: 4,  dead: 241

May 23:  real: 31,969,  official: 28,704,  infectious: 31,969,  died: 3,  dead: 244

May 24:  real: 32,532,  official: 29,485,  infectious: 32,532,  died: 1,  dead: 245

May 25:  real: 33,170,  official: 30,307,  infectious: 33,170,  died: 3,  dead: 248

May 26:  real: 33,896,  official: 31,086,  infectious: 33,896,  died: 5,  dead: 253

May 27:  real: 34,557,  official: 31,969,  infectious: 34,557,  died: 2,  dead: 255

May 28:  real: 35,192,  official: 32,532,  infectious: 35,192,  died: 3,  dead: 258

May 29:  real: 35,788,  official: 33,170,  infectious: 35,788,  died: 2,  dead: 260

May 30:  real: 36,359,  official: 33,896,  infectious: 36,359,  died: 2,  dead: 262

May 31:  real: 37,018,  official: 34,557,  infectious: 37,018,  died: 2,  dead: 264

Jun  1:  real: 37,642,  official: 35,192,  infectious: 37,642,  died: 2,  dead: 266

Jun  2:  real: 38,268,  official: 35,788,  infectious: 38,268,  died: 3,  dead: 269

Jun  3:  real: 38,808,  official: 36,359,  infectious: 38,808,  died: 1,  dead: 270

Jun  4:  real: 39,376,  official: 37,018,  infectious: 39,376,  died: 3,  dead: 273

Jun  5:  real: 39,904,  official: 37,642,  infectious: 39,904,  died: 1,  dead: 274

Jun  6:  real: 40,507,  official: 38,268,  infectious: 40,507,  died: 1,  dead: 275

Jun  7:  real: 40,986,  official: 38,808,  infectious: 40,986,  died: 1,  dead: 276

Jun  8:  real: 41,499,  official: 39,376,  infectious: 41,499,  died: 5,  dead: 281

Jun  9:  real: 41,990,  official: 39,904,  infectious: 41,990,  died: 2,  dead: 283

Jun 10:  real: 42,294,  official: 40,507,  infectious: 42,294,  died: 1,  dead: 284

Jun 11:  real: 42,636,  official: 40,986,  infectious: 42,636,  died: 2,  dead: 286

Jun 12:  real: 42,982,  official: 41,499,  infectious: 42,982,  died: 1,  dead: 287

Jun 13:  real: 43,364,  official: 41,990,  infectious: 43,364,  died: 1,  dead: 288

Jun 14:  real: 43,752,  official: 42,294,  infectious: 43,752,  died: 1,  dead: 289

Jun 15:  real: 44,145,  official: 42,636,  infectious: 44,145,  died: 2,  dead: 291

Jun 16:  real: 44,533,  official: 42,982,  infectious: 44,533,  died: 2,  dead: 293

Jun 17:  real: 44,925,  official: 43,364,  infectious: 44,925,  died: 2,  dead: 295

Jun 18:  real: 45,303,  official: 43,752,  infectious: 45,303,  died: 3,  dead: 298

Jun 19:  real: 45,683,  official: 44,145,  infectious: 45,683,  died: 2,  dead: 300

Jun 20:  real: 46,133,  official: 44,533,  infectious: 46,133,  died: 1,  dead: 301

Jun 21:  real: 46,563,  official: 44,925,  infectious: 46,563,  died: 1,  dead: 302

Jun 22:  real: 46,973,  official: 45,303,  infectious: 46,973,  died: 1,  dead: 303

Jun 23:  real: 47,360,  official: 45,683,  infectious: 47,360,  died: 2,  dead: 305

Jun 24:  real: 47,797,  official: 46,133,  infectious: 47,797,  died: 2,  dead: 307

Jun 25:  real: 48,246,  official: 46,563,  infectious: 48,246,  died: 1,  dead: 308

Jun 26:  real: 48,667,  official: 46,973,  infectious: 48,667,  died: 2,  dead: 310

Jun 27:  real: 49,069,  official: 47,360,  infectious: 49,069,  died: 1,  dead: 311

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 49,132,  official: 47,797,  infectious: 7,132,  died: 6,  dead: 317

Jun 29:  real: 49,195,  official: 48,246,  infectious: 7,140,  died: 5,  dead: 322

Jun 30:  real: 49,254,  official: 48,667,  infectious: 6,725,  died: 5,  dead: 327

Jul  1:  real: 49,310,  official: 49,069,  infectious: 6,317,  died: 4,  dead: 331

Jul  2:  real: 49,363,  official: 49,132,  infectious: 6,057,  died: 6,  dead: 337

Jul  3:  real: 49,414,  official: 49,195,  infectious: 5,767,  died: 6,  dead: 343

Jul  4:  real: 49,462,  official: 49,254,  infectious: 5,473,  died: 5,  dead: 348

Jul  5:  real: 49,507,  official: 49,310,  infectious: 5,140,  died: 5,  dead: 353

Jul  6:  real: 49,549,  official: 49,363,  infectious: 4,799,  died: 0,  dead: 353

Jul  7:  real: 49,588,  official: 49,414,  infectious: 4,457,  died: 6,  dead: 359

Jul  8:  real: 49,624,  official: 49,462,  infectious: 4,124,  died: 5,  dead: 364

Jul  9:  real: 49,658,  official: 49,507,  infectious: 3,835,  died: 5,  dead: 369

Jul 10:  real: 49,689,  official: 49,549,  infectious: 3,555,  died: 4,  dead: 373

Jul 11:  real: 49,718,  official: 49,588,  infectious: 3,273,  died: 6,  dead: 379

Jul 12:  real: 49,744,  official: 49,624,  infectious: 2,933,  died: 6,  dead: 385

Jul 13:  real: 49,767,  official: 49,658,  infectious: 2,607,  died: 5,  dead: 390

Jul 14:  real: 49,787,  official: 49,689,  infectious: 2,295,  died: 5,  dead: 395

Jul 15:  real: 49,805,  official: 49,718,  infectious: 1,997,  died: 1,  dead: 396

Jul 16:  real: 49,820,  official: 49,744,  infectious: 1,659,  died: 1,  dead: 397

Jul 17:  real: 49,832,  official: 49,767,  infectious: 1,309,  died: 1,  dead: 398

Jul 18:  real: 49,841,  official: 49,787,  infectious: 979,  died: 1,  dead: 399

Jul 19:  real: 49,847,  official: 49,805,  infectious: 662,  died: 1,  dead: 400

Jul 20:  real: 49,852,  official: 49,820,  infectious: 614,  died: 1,  dead: 401

Jul 21:  real: 49,857,  official: 49,832,  infectious: 564,  died: 1,  dead: 402

Jul 22:  real: 49,862,  official: 49,841,  infectious: 516,  died: 1,  dead: 403

Jul 23:  real: 49,866,  official: 49,847,  infectious: 471,  died: 1,  dead: 404

Jul 24:  real: 49,870,  official: 49,852,  infectious: 428,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Jul 25:  real: 49,873,  official: 49,857,  infectious: 388,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Jul 26:  real: 49,876,  official: 49,862,  infectious: 351,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Jul 27:  real: 49,879,  official: 49,866,  infectious: 315,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Jul 28:  real: 49,881,  official: 49,870,  infectious: 283,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Jul 29:  real: 49,883,  official: 49,873,  infectious: 252,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Jul 30:  real: 49,885,  official: 49,876,  infectious: 224,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Jul 31:  real: 49,887,  official: 49,879,  infectious: 198,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  1:  real: 49,889,  official: 49,881,  infectious: 174,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  2:  real: 49,890,  official: 49,883,  infectious: 152,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  3:  real: 49,891,  official: 49,885,  infectious: 132,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  4:  real: 49,892,  official: 49,887,  infectious: 114,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  5:  real: 49,893,  official: 49,889,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  6:  real: 49,894,  official: 49,890,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  7:  real: 49,895,  official: 49,891,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  8:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,892,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug  9:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,893,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 10:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,894,  infectious: 49,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 11:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,895,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 12:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 13:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 14:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 15:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 16:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 17:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 18:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 19:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 20:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 21:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 22:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 23:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 24:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 25:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 26:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 27:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 28:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 29:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 30:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Aug 31:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  1:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  2:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  3:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  4:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  5:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  6:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  7:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  8:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep  9:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 10:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 11:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 12:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 13:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 14:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 15:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 16:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 17:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 18:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 19:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 20:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 21:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 22:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 23:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 24:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 25:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 26:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 27:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 28:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 29:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Sep 30:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  1:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  2:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  3:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  4:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  5:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  6:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  7:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  8:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct  9:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 10:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 11:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 12:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 13:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 14:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 15:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 16:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 17:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 18:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 19:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 20:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 21:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 22:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 23:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 24:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 25:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 26:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 27:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 28:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 29:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 30:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Oct 31:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  1:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  2:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  3:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  4:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  5:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  6:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  7:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  8:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov  9:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 10:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 11:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 12:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 13:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 14:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 15:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 16:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 17:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 18:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 19:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 20:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 21:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 22:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 23:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 24:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 25:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 26:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 27:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 28:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 29:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Nov 30:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  1:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  2:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  3:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  4:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  5:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  6:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  7:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  8:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec  9:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 10:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 11:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 12:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 13:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 14:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 15:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 16:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 17:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 18:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 19:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 20:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 21:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 22:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 23:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 24:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 25:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 26:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 27:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 28:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 29:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 30:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

Dec 31:  real: 49,896,  official: 49,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 404

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        404:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        404:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.88%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0088
Official uninf: 6,950,931 / Adult Pop.: 7,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.30%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0071
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.89%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0089