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COVID-19 Forecast for Portugual, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
359 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Portugual HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 359 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Portugual run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Portugual are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,623:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,623:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Portugual COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.006, at 100.64% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 9,  official: 0,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 13,  official: 2,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 21,  official: 4,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 30,  official: 6,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 39,  official: 9,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 41,  official: 13,  infectious: 41,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 61,  official: 21,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 78,  official: 30,  infectious: 78,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 112,  official: 39,  infectious: 112,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 169,  official: 41,  infectious: 169,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 245,  official: 61,  infectious: 245,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 331,  official: 78,  infectious: 331,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 448,  official: 112,  infectious: 448,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 642,  official: 169,  infectious: 642,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 786,  official: 245,  infectious: 786,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 1,020,  official: 331,  infectious: 1,020,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 17:  real: 1,280,  official: 448,  infectious: 1,280,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 18:  real: 1,600,  official: 642,  infectious: 1,600,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 19:  real: 2,060,  official: 786,  infectious: 2,060,  died: 2,  dead: 4

Mar 20:  real: 2,362,  official: 1,020,  infectious: 2,362,  died: 2,  dead: 6

Mar 21:  real: 2,995,  official: 1,280,  infectious: 2,995,  died: 6,  dead: 12

Mar 22:  real: 3,544,  official: 1,600,  infectious: 3,544,  died: 2,  dead: 14

Mar 23:  real: 4,268,  official: 2,060,  infectious: 4,268,  died: 9,  dead: 23

Mar 24:  real: 5,170,  official: 2,362,  infectious: 5,170,  died: 10,  dead: 33

Mar 25:  real: 5,962,  official: 2,995,  infectious: 5,962,  died: 10,  dead: 43

Mar 26:  real: 6,408,  official: 3,544,  infectious: 6,408,  died: 17,  dead: 60

Mar 27:  real: 7,443,  official: 4,268,  infectious: 7,443,  died: 16,  dead: 76

Mar 28:  real: 8,251,  official: 5,170,  infectious: 8,251,  died: 24,  dead: 100

Mar 29:  real: 9,034,  official: 5,962,  infectious: 9,034,  died: 19,  dead: 119

Mar 30:  real: 9,886,  official: 6,408,  infectious: 9,886,  died: 21,  dead: 140

Mar 31:  real: 10,524,  official: 7,443,  infectious: 10,524,  died: 20,  dead: 160

Apr  1:  real: 11,278,  official: 8,251,  infectious: 11,278,  died: 27,  dead: 187

Apr  2:  real: 11,730,  official: 9,034,  infectious: 11,730,  died: 22,  dead: 209

Apr  3:  real: 12,442,  official: 9,886,  infectious: 12,442,  died: 37,  dead: 246

Apr  4:  real: 13,141,  official: 10,524,  infectious: 13,141,  died: 20,  dead: 266

Apr  5:  real: 13,956,  official: 11,278,  infectious: 13,956,  died: 29,  dead: 295

Apr  6:  real: 15,472,  official: 11,730,  infectious: 15,472,  died: 16,  dead: 311

Apr  7:  real: 15,987,  official: 12,442,  infectious: 15,987,  died: 34,  dead: 345

Apr  8:  real: 16,585,  official: 13,141,  infectious: 16,585,  died: 35,  dead: 380

Apr  9:  real: 16,934,  official: 13,956,  infectious: 16,934,  died: 29,  dead: 409

Apr 10:  real: 17,448,  official: 15,472,  infectious: 17,448,  died: 26,  dead: 435

Apr 11:  real: 18,091,  official: 15,987,  infectious: 18,091,  died: 35,  dead: 470

Apr 12:  real: 18,841,  official: 16,585,  infectious: 18,841,  died: 34,  dead: 504

Apr 13:  real: 19,022,  official: 16,934,  infectious: 19,022,  died: 31,  dead: 535

Apr 14:  real: 19,685,  official: 17,448,  infectious: 19,685,  died: 32,  dead: 567

Apr 15:  real: 20,206,  official: 18,091,  infectious: 20,206,  died: 32,  dead: 599

Apr 16:  real: 20,863,  official: 18,841,  infectious: 20,863,  died: 30,  dead: 629

Apr 17:  real: 21,379,  official: 19,022,  infectious: 21,379,  died: 28,  dead: 657

Apr 18:  real: 21,982,  official: 19,685,  infectious: 21,982,  died: 30,  dead: 687

Apr 19:  real: 22,353,  official: 20,206,  infectious: 22,353,  died: 27,  dead: 714

Apr 20:  real: 22,797,  official: 20,863,  infectious: 22,797,  died: 21,  dead: 735

Apr 21:  real: 23,294,  official: 21,379,  infectious: 23,294,  died: 27,  dead: 762

Apr 22:  real: 23,688,  official: 21,982,  infectious: 23,688,  died: 23,  dead: 785

Apr 23:  real: 23,824,  official: 22,353,  infectious: 23,824,  died: 35,  dead: 820

Apr 24:  real: 24,070,  official: 22,797,  infectious: 24,070,  died: 34,  dead: 854

Apr 25:  real: 24,223,  official: 23,294,  infectious: 24,223,  died: 26,  dead: 880

Apr 26:  real: 24,674,  official: 23,688,  infectious: 24,674,  died: 23,  dead: 903

Apr 27:  real: 24,987,  official: 23,824,  infectious: 24,987,  died: 25,  dead: 928

Apr 28:  real: 25,190,  official: 24,070,  infectious: 25,190,  died: 20,  dead: 948

Apr 29:  real: 25,282,  official: 24,223,  infectious: 25,282,  died: 25,  dead: 973

Apr 30:  real: 25,524,  official: 24,674,  infectious: 25,524,  died: 16,  dead: 989

May  1:  real: 25,702,  official: 24,987,  infectious: 25,702,  died: 18,  dead: 1,007

May  2:  real: 26,182,  official: 25,190,  infectious: 26,182,  died: 16,  dead: 1,023

May  3:  real: 26,715,  official: 25,282,  infectious: 26,715,  died: 20,  dead: 1,043

May  4:  real: 27,268,  official: 25,524,  infectious: 27,268,  died: 20,  dead: 1,063

May  5:  real: 27,406,  official: 25,702,  infectious: 27,406,  died: 11,  dead: 1,074

May  6:  real: 27,581,  official: 26,182,  infectious: 27,581,  died: 15,  dead: 1,089

May  7:  real: 27,679,  official: 26,715,  infectious: 27,679,  died: 16,  dead: 1,105

May  8:  real: 27,913,  official: 27,268,  infectious: 27,913,  died: 9,  dead: 1,114

May  9:  real: 28,132,  official: 27,406,  infectious: 28,132,  died: 12,  dead: 1,126

May 10:  real: 28,319,  official: 27,581,  infectious: 28,319,  died: 9,  dead: 1,135

May 11:  real: 28,583,  official: 27,679,  infectious: 28,583,  died: 9,  dead: 1,144

May 12:  real: 28,810,  official: 27,913,  infectious: 28,810,  died: 19,  dead: 1,163

May 13:  real: 29,036,  official: 28,132,  infectious: 29,036,  died: 12,  dead: 1,175

May 14:  real: 29,209,  official: 28,319,  infectious: 29,209,  died: 9,  dead: 1,184

May 15:  real: 29,432,  official: 28,583,  infectious: 29,432,  died: 6,  dead: 1,190

May 16:  real: 29,660,  official: 28,810,  infectious: 29,660,  died: 13,  dead: 1,203

May 17:  real: 29,912,  official: 29,036,  infectious: 29,912,  died: 15,  dead: 1,218

May 18:  real: 30,200,  official: 29,209,  infectious: 30,200,  died: 13,  dead: 1,231

May 19:  real: 30,471,  official: 29,432,  infectious: 30,471,  died: 16,  dead: 1,247

May 20:  real: 30,623,  official: 29,660,  infectious: 30,623,  died: 16,  dead: 1,263

May 21:  real: 30,788,  official: 29,912,  infectious: 30,788,  died: 14,  dead: 1,277

May 22:  real: 31,007,  official: 30,200,  infectious: 31,007,  died: 12,  dead: 1,289

May 23:  real: 31,292,  official: 30,471,  infectious: 31,292,  died: 13,  dead: 1,302

May 24:  real: 31,596,  official: 30,623,  infectious: 31,596,  died: 14,  dead: 1,316

May 25:  real: 31,946,  official: 30,788,  infectious: 31,946,  died: 14,  dead: 1,330

May 26:  real: 32,203,  official: 31,007,  infectious: 32,203,  died: 12,  dead: 1,342

May 27:  real: 32,500,  official: 31,292,  infectious: 32,500,  died: 14,  dead: 1,356

May 28:  real: 32,700,  official: 31,596,  infectious: 32,700,  died: 13,  dead: 1,369

May 29:  real: 32,895,  official: 31,946,  infectious: 32,895,  died: 14,  dead: 1,383

May 30:  real: 33,261,  official: 32,203,  infectious: 33,261,  died: 13,  dead: 1,396

May 31:  real: 33,592,  official: 32,500,  infectious: 33,592,  died: 14,  dead: 1,410

Jun  1:  real: 33,969,  official: 32,700,  infectious: 33,969,  died: 14,  dead: 1,424

Jun  2:  real: 34,351,  official: 32,895,  infectious: 34,351,  died: 12,  dead: 1,436

Jun  3:  real: 34,693,  official: 33,261,  infectious: 34,693,  died: 11,  dead: 1,447

Jun  4:  real: 34,885,  official: 33,592,  infectious: 34,885,  died: 8,  dead: 1,455

Jun  5:  real: 35,306,  official: 33,969,  infectious: 35,306,  died: 10,  dead: 1,465

Jun  6:  real: 35,600,  official: 34,351,  infectious: 35,600,  died: 9,  dead: 1,474

Jun  7:  real: 35,910,  official: 34,693,  infectious: 35,910,  died: 5,  dead: 1,479

Jun  8:  real: 36,180,  official: 34,885,  infectious: 36,180,  died: 6,  dead: 1,485

Jun  9:  real: 36,463,  official: 35,306,  infectious: 36,463,  died: 7,  dead: 1,492

Jun 10:  real: 36,690,  official: 35,600,  infectious: 36,690,  died: 5,  dead: 1,497

Jun 11:  real: 37,036,  official: 35,910,  infectious: 37,036,  died: 7,  dead: 1,504

Jun 12:  real: 37,336,  official: 36,180,  infectious: 37,336,  died: 1,  dead: 1,505

Jun 13:  real: 37,672,  official: 36,463,  infectious: 37,672,  died: 7,  dead: 1,512

Jun 14:  real: 38,089,  official: 36,690,  infectious: 38,089,  died: 5,  dead: 1,517

Jun 15:  real: 38,464,  official: 37,036,  infectious: 38,464,  died: 3,  dead: 1,520

Jun 16:  real: 38,841,  official: 37,336,  infectious: 38,841,  died: 2,  dead: 1,522

Jun 17:  real: 39,133,  official: 37,672,  infectious: 39,133,  died: 1,  dead: 1,523

Jun 18:  real: 39,392,  official: 38,089,  infectious: 39,392,  died: 1,  dead: 1,524

Jun 19:  real: 39,737,  official: 38,464,  infectious: 39,737,  died: 3,  dead: 1,527

Jun 20:  real: 40,104,  official: 38,841,  infectious: 40,104,  died: 1,  dead: 1,528

Jun 21:  real: 40,415,  official: 39,133,  infectious: 40,415,  died: 2,  dead: 1,530

Jun 22:  real: 40,866,  official: 39,392,  infectious: 40,866,  died: 4,  dead: 1,534

Jun 23:  real: 41,189,  official: 39,737,  infectious: 41,189,  died: 6,  dead: 1,540

Jun 24:  real: 41,646,  official: 40,104,  infectious: 41,646,  died: 3,  dead: 1,543

Jun 25:  real: 41,912,  official: 40,415,  infectious: 41,912,  died: 6,  dead: 1,549

Jun 26:  real: 42,141,  official: 40,866,  infectious: 42,141,  died: 6,  dead: 1,555

Jun 27:  real: 42,454,  official: 41,189,  infectious: 42,454,  died: 6,  dead: 1,561

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 42,491,  official: 41,646,  infectious: 5,730,  died: 4,  dead: 1,565

Jun 29:  real: 42,528,  official: 41,912,  infectious: 5,786,  died: 3,  dead: 1,568

Jun 30:  real: 42,564,  official: 42,141,  infectious: 5,545,  died: 6,  dead: 1,574

Jul  1:  real: 42,598,  official: 42,454,  infectious: 5,294,  died: 4,  dead: 1,578

Jul  2:  real: 42,631,  official: 42,491,  infectious: 5,089,  died: 6,  dead: 1,584

Jul  3:  real: 42,662,  official: 42,528,  infectious: 4,769,  died: 3,  dead: 1,587

Jul  4:  real: 42,691,  official: 42,564,  infectious: 4,501,  died: 2,  dead: 1,589

Jul  5:  real: 42,718,  official: 42,598,  infectious: 4,188,  died: 3,  dead: 1,592

Jul  6:  real: 42,743,  official: 42,631,  infectious: 3,838,  died: 0,  dead: 1,592

Jul  7:  real: 42,766,  official: 42,662,  infectious: 3,522,  died: 4,  dead: 1,596

Jul  8:  real: 42,787,  official: 42,691,  infectious: 3,197,  died: 3,  dead: 1,599

Jul  9:  real: 42,806,  official: 42,718,  infectious: 2,979,  died: 6,  dead: 1,605

Jul 10:  real: 42,824,  official: 42,743,  infectious: 2,785,  died: 4,  dead: 1,609

Jul 11:  real: 42,840,  official: 42,766,  infectious: 2,520,  died: 6,  dead: 1,615

Jul 12:  real: 42,854,  official: 42,787,  infectious: 2,237,  died: 3,  dead: 1,618

Jul 13:  real: 42,867,  official: 42,806,  infectious: 1,997,  died: 2,  dead: 1,620

Jul 14:  real: 42,878,  official: 42,824,  infectious: 1,644,  died: 3,  dead: 1,623

Jul 15:  real: 42,887,  official: 42,840,  infectious: 1,393,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 16:  real: 42,894,  official: 42,854,  infectious: 1,032,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 17:  real: 42,899,  official: 42,867,  infectious: 822,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 18:  real: 42,903,  official: 42,878,  infectious: 640,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 19:  real: 42,906,  official: 42,887,  infectious: 389,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 20:  real: 42,908,  official: 42,894,  infectious: 360,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 21:  real: 42,910,  official: 42,899,  infectious: 330,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 22:  real: 42,912,  official: 42,903,  infectious: 300,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 23:  real: 42,914,  official: 42,906,  infectious: 272,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 24:  real: 42,916,  official: 42,908,  infectious: 245,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 25:  real: 42,917,  official: 42,910,  infectious: 220,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 26:  real: 42,918,  official: 42,912,  infectious: 197,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 27:  real: 42,919,  official: 42,914,  infectious: 175,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 28:  real: 42,920,  official: 42,916,  infectious: 155,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 29:  real: 42,921,  official: 42,917,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 30:  real: 42,922,  official: 42,918,  infectious: 121,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Jul 31:  real: 42,923,  official: 42,919,  infectious: 105,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  1:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,920,  infectious: 90,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  2:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,921,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  3:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,922,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  4:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,923,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  5:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  6:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  7:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  8:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug  9:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 10:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 11:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 12:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 13:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 14:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 15:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 16:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 17:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 18:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 19:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 20:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 21:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 22:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 23:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 24:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 25:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 26:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 27:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 28:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 29:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 30:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Aug 31:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  1:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  2:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  3:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  4:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  5:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  6:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  7:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  8:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep  9:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 10:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 11:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 12:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 13:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 14:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 15:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 16:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 17:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 18:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 19:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 20:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 21:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 22:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 23:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 24:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 25:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 26:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 27:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 28:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 29:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Sep 30:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  1:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  2:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  3:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  4:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  5:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  6:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  7:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  8:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct  9:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 10:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 11:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 12:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 13:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 14:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 15:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 16:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 17:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 18:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 19:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 20:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 21:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 22:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 23:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 24:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 25:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 26:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 27:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 28:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 29:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 30:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Oct 31:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  1:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  2:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  3:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  4:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  5:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  6:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  7:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  8:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov  9:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 10:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 11:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 12:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 13:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 14:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 15:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 16:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 17:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 18:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 19:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 20:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 21:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 22:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 23:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 24:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 25:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 26:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 27:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 28:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 29:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Nov 30:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  1:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  2:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  3:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  4:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  5:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  6:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  7:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  8:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec  9:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 10:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 11:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 12:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 13:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 14:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 15:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 16:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 17:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 18:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 19:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 20:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 21:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 22:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 23:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 24:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 25:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 26:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 27:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 28:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 29:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 30:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

Dec 31:  real: 42,924,  official: 42,924,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,623

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,623:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,623:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.64%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0064
Official uninf: 7,457,546 / Adult Pop.: 7,500,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.43%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0057
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.65%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0065