Please Donate

World Countries' Leaderboard

COVID-19 Forecast for Saudi Arabia, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
111 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Saudi Arabia HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 111 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Saudi Arabia run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Saudi Arabia are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     2,500 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        147:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
        879:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      2,514:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,393:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Saudi Arabia COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.021, at 102.10% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 5,  official: 0,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 5,  official: 1,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 7,  official: 1,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 11,  official: 2,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 20,  official: 5,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 20,  official: 5,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 45,  official: 7,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 45,  official: 11,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 86,  official: 20,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 103,  official: 20,  infectious: 103,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 118,  official: 45,  infectious: 118,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 133,  official: 45,  infectious: 133,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 171,  official: 86,  infectious: 171,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 238,  official: 103,  infectious: 238,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 274,  official: 118,  infectious: 274,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 344,  official: 133,  infectious: 344,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 392,  official: 171,  infectious: 392,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 511,  official: 238,  infectious: 511,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 562,  official: 274,  infectious: 562,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 767,  official: 344,  infectious: 767,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 900,  official: 392,  infectious: 900,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 1,012,  official: 511,  infectious: 1,012,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 23:  real: 1,104,  official: 562,  infectious: 1,104,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 24:  real: 1,203,  official: 767,  infectious: 1,203,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 25:  real: 1,299,  official: 900,  infectious: 1,299,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 26:  real: 1,453,  official: 1,012,  infectious: 1,453,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 27:  real: 1,563,  official: 1,104,  infectious: 1,563,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 28:  real: 1,720,  official: 1,203,  infectious: 1,720,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 29:  real: 1,885,  official: 1,299,  infectious: 1,885,  died: 4,  dead: 8

Mar 30:  real: 2,039,  official: 1,453,  infectious: 2,039,  died: 0,  dead: 8

Mar 31:  real: 2,179,  official: 1,563,  infectious: 2,179,  died: 2,  dead: 10

Apr  1:  real: 2,402,  official: 1,720,  infectious: 2,402,  died: 6,  dead: 16

Apr  2:  real: 2,605,  official: 1,885,  infectious: 2,605,  died: 5,  dead: 21

Apr  3:  real: 2,795,  official: 2,039,  infectious: 2,795,  died: 4,  dead: 25

Apr  4:  real: 2,932,  official: 2,179,  infectious: 2,932,  died: 4,  dead: 29

Apr  5:  real: 3,287,  official: 2,402,  infectious: 3,287,  died: 5,  dead: 34

Apr  6:  real: 3,651,  official: 2,605,  infectious: 3,651,  died: 4,  dead: 38

Apr  7:  real: 4,033,  official: 2,795,  infectious: 4,033,  died: 3,  dead: 41

Apr  8:  real: 4,462,  official: 2,932,  infectious: 4,462,  died: 0,  dead: 41

Apr  9:  real: 4,934,  official: 3,287,  infectious: 4,934,  died: 3,  dead: 44

Apr 10:  real: 5,369,  official: 3,651,  infectious: 5,369,  died: 3,  dead: 47

Apr 11:  real: 5,862,  official: 4,033,  infectious: 5,862,  died: 5,  dead: 52

Apr 12:  real: 6,380,  official: 4,462,  infectious: 6,380,  died: 7,  dead: 59

Apr 13:  real: 7,142,  official: 4,934,  infectious: 7,142,  died: 6,  dead: 65

Apr 14:  real: 8,274,  official: 5,369,  infectious: 8,274,  died: 8,  dead: 73

Apr 15:  real: 9,362,  official: 5,862,  infectious: 9,362,  died: 6,  dead: 79

Apr 16:  real: 10,484,  official: 6,380,  infectious: 10,484,  died: 4,  dead: 83

Apr 17:  real: 11,631,  official: 7,142,  infectious: 11,631,  died: 4,  dead: 87

Apr 18:  real: 12,772,  official: 8,274,  infectious: 12,772,  died: 5,  dead: 92

Apr 19:  real: 13,930,  official: 9,362,  infectious: 13,930,  died: 5,  dead: 97

Apr 20:  real: 15,102,  official: 10,484,  infectious: 15,102,  died: 6,  dead: 103

Apr 21:  real: 16,299,  official: 11,631,  infectious: 16,299,  died: 6,  dead: 109

Apr 22:  real: 17,522,  official: 12,772,  infectious: 17,522,  died: 5,  dead: 114

Apr 23:  real: 18,811,  official: 13,930,  infectious: 18,811,  died: 7,  dead: 121

Apr 24:  real: 20,077,  official: 15,102,  infectious: 20,077,  died: 6,  dead: 127

Apr 25:  real: 21,402,  official: 16,299,  infectious: 21,402,  died: 9,  dead: 136

Apr 26:  real: 22,753,  official: 17,522,  infectious: 22,753,  died: 3,  dead: 139

Apr 27:  real: 24,097,  official: 18,811,  infectious: 24,097,  died: 5,  dead: 144

Apr 28:  real: 25,459,  official: 20,077,  infectious: 25,459,  died: 8,  dead: 152

Apr 29:  real: 27,011,  official: 21,402,  infectious: 27,011,  died: 5,  dead: 157

Apr 30:  real: 28,656,  official: 22,753,  infectious: 28,656,  died: 5,  dead: 162

May  1:  real: 30,251,  official: 24,097,  infectious: 30,251,  died: 7,  dead: 169

May  2:  real: 31,938,  official: 25,459,  infectious: 31,938,  died: 7,  dead: 176

May  3:  real: 33,731,  official: 27,011,  infectious: 33,731,  died: 8,  dead: 184

May  4:  real: 35,432,  official: 28,656,  infectious: 35,432,  died: 7,  dead: 191

May  5:  real: 37,136,  official: 30,251,  infectious: 37,136,  died: 9,  dead: 200

May  6:  real: 39,048,  official: 31,938,  infectious: 39,048,  died: 9,  dead: 209

May  7:  real: 41,014,  official: 33,731,  infectious: 41,014,  died: 10,  dead: 219

May  8:  real: 42,925,  official: 35,432,  infectious: 42,925,  died: 10,  dead: 229

May  9:  real: 44,830,  official: 37,136,  infectious: 44,830,  died: 10,  dead: 239

May 10:  real: 46,869,  official: 39,048,  infectious: 46,869,  died: 7,  dead: 246

May 11:  real: 49,176,  official: 41,014,  infectious: 49,176,  died: 9,  dead: 255

May 12:  real: 52,016,  official: 42,925,  infectious: 52,016,  died: 9,  dead: 264

May 13:  real: 54,752,  official: 44,830,  infectious: 54,752,  died: 9,  dead: 273

May 14:  real: 57,345,  official: 46,869,  infectious: 57,345,  died: 10,  dead: 283

May 15:  real: 59,854,  official: 49,176,  infectious: 59,854,  died: 9,  dead: 292

May 16:  real: 62,545,  official: 52,016,  infectious: 62,545,  died: 10,  dead: 302

May 17:  real: 65,077,  official: 54,752,  infectious: 65,077,  died: 10,  dead: 312

May 18:  real: 67,719,  official: 57,345,  infectious: 67,719,  died: 8,  dead: 320

May 19:  real: 70,161,  official: 59,854,  infectious: 70,161,  died: 9,  dead: 329

May 20:  real: 72,560,  official: 62,545,  infectious: 72,560,  died: 10,  dead: 339

May 21:  real: 74,795,  official: 65,077,  infectious: 74,795,  died: 12,  dead: 351

May 22:  real: 76,726,  official: 67,719,  infectious: 76,726,  died: 13,  dead: 364

May 23:  real: 78,541,  official: 70,161,  infectious: 78,541,  died: 15,  dead: 379

May 24:  real: 80,185,  official: 72,560,  infectious: 80,185,  died: 11,  dead: 390

May 25:  real: 81,766,  official: 74,795,  infectious: 81,766,  died: 9,  dead: 399

May 26:  real: 83,384,  official: 76,726,  infectious: 83,384,  died: 12,  dead: 411

May 27:  real: 85,261,  official: 78,541,  infectious: 85,261,  died: 14,  dead: 425

May 28:  real: 87,142,  official: 80,185,  infectious: 87,142,  died: 16,  dead: 441

May 29:  real: 89,011,  official: 81,766,  infectious: 89,011,  died: 17,  dead: 458

May 30:  real: 91,182,  official: 83,384,  infectious: 91,182,  died: 22,  dead: 480

May 31:  real: 93,157,  official: 85,261,  infectious: 93,157,  died: 23,  dead: 503

Jun  1:  real: 95,748,  official: 87,142,  infectious: 95,748,  died: 22,  dead: 525

Jun  2:  real: 98,869,  official: 89,011,  infectious: 98,869,  died: 24,  dead: 549

Jun  3:  real: 101,914,  official: 91,182,  infectious: 101,914,  died: 30,  dead: 579

Jun  4:  real: 105,283,  official: 93,157,  infectious: 105,283,  died: 32,  dead: 611

Jun  5:  real: 108,571,  official: 95,748,  infectious: 108,571,  died: 31,  dead: 642

Jun  6:  real: 112,288,  official: 98,869,  infectious: 112,288,  died: 34,  dead: 676

Jun  7:  real: 116,021,  official: 101,914,  infectious: 116,021,  died: 36,  dead: 712

Jun  8:  real: 119,942,  official: 105,283,  infectious: 119,942,  died: 34,  dead: 746

Jun  9:  real: 123,308,  official: 108,571,  infectious: 123,308,  died: 37,  dead: 783

Jun 10:  real: 127,541,  official: 112,288,  infectious: 127,541,  died: 36,  dead: 819

Jun 11:  real: 132,048,  official: 116,021,  infectious: 132,048,  died: 38,  dead: 857

Jun 12:  real: 136,315,  official: 119,942,  infectious: 136,315,  died: 36,  dead: 893

Jun 13:  real: 141,234,  official: 123,308,  infectious: 141,234,  died: 39,  dead: 932

Jun 14:  real: 145,991,  official: 127,541,  infectious: 145,991,  died: 40,  dead: 972

Jun 15:  real: 150,292,  official: 132,048,  infectious: 150,292,  died: 39,  dead: 1,011

Jun 16:  real: 154,233,  official: 136,315,  infectious: 154,233,  died: 41,  dead: 1,052

Jun 17:  real: 157,612,  official: 141,234,  infectious: 157,612,  died: 39,  dead: 1,091

Jun 18:  real: 161,005,  official: 145,991,  infectious: 161,005,  died: 48,  dead: 1,139

Jun 19:  real: 164,144,  official: 150,292,  infectious: 164,144,  died: 45,  dead: 1,184

Jun 20:  real: 167,267,  official: 154,233,  infectious: 167,267,  died: 46,  dead: 1,230

Jun 21:  real: 170,639,  official: 157,612,  infectious: 170,639,  died: 37,  dead: 1,267

Jun 22:  real: 174,577,  official: 161,005,  infectious: 174,577,  died: 40,  dead: 1,307

Jun 23:  real: 178,504,  official: 164,144,  infectious: 178,504,  died: 39,  dead: 1,346

Jun 24:  real: 182,493,  official: 167,267,  infectious: 182,493,  died: 41,  dead: 1,387

Jun 25:  real: 186,436,  official: 170,639,  infectious: 186,436,  died: 41,  dead: 1,428

Jun 26:  real: 190,823,  official: 174,577,  infectious: 190,823,  died: 46,  dead: 1,474

Jun 27:  real: 194,225,  official: 178,504,  infectious: 194,225,  died: 37,  dead: 1,511

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 195,655,  official: 182,493,  infectious: 67,977,  died: 43,  dead: 1,554


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 197,092,  official: 186,436,  infectious: 68,306,  died: 46,  dead: 1,600

Jun 30:  real: 198,483,  official: 190,823,  infectious: 66,130,  died: 55,  dead: 1,655

Jul  1:  real: 199,838,  official: 194,225,  infectious: 64,407,  died: 55,  dead: 1,710

Jul  2:  real: 201,140,  official: 195,655,  infectious: 61,907,  died: 55,  dead: 1,765

Jul  3:  real: 202,381,  official: 197,092,  infectious: 58,989,  died: 134,  dead: 1,899

Jul  4:  real: 203,563,  official: 198,483,  infectious: 56,205,  died: 146,  dead: 2,045

Jul  5:  real: 204,674,  official: 199,838,  infectious: 52,815,  died: 147,  dead: 2,192

Jul  6:  real: 205,715,  official: 201,140,  infectious: 49,503,  died: 100,  dead: 2,292

Jul  7:  real: 206,691,  official: 202,381,  infectious: 46,388,  died: 101,  dead: 2,393

Jul  8:  real: 207,608,  official: 203,563,  infectious: 43,629,  died: 100,  dead: 2,493

Jul  9:  real: 208,481,  official: 204,674,  infectious: 41,536,  died: 111,  dead: 2,604

Jul 10:  real: 209,310,  official: 205,715,  infectious: 39,419,  died: 57,  dead: 2,661

Jul 11:  real: 210,098,  official: 206,691,  infectious: 37,494,  died: 32,  dead: 2,693

Jul 12:  real: 210,845,  official: 207,608,  infectious: 35,543,  died: 32,  dead: 2,725

Jul 13:  real: 211,546,  official: 208,481,  infectious: 33,360,  died: 23,  dead: 2,748


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 14:  real: 212,191,  official: 209,310,  infectious: 30,699,  died: 37,  dead: 2,785

Jul 15:  real: 212,780,  official: 210,098,  infectious: 28,007,  died: 41,  dead: 2,826

Jul 16:  real: 213,310,  official: 210,845,  infectious: 25,233,  died: 30,  dead: 2,856

Jul 17:  real: 213,782,  official: 211,546,  infectious: 22,452,  died: 35,  dead: 2,891

Jul 18:  real: 214,187,  official: 212,191,  infectious: 19,279,  died: 25,  dead: 2,916

Jul 19:  real: 214,541,  official: 212,780,  infectious: 16,847,  died: 25,  dead: 2,941

Jul 20:  real: 214,876,  official: 213,310,  infectious: 15,935,  died: 30,  dead: 2,971

Jul 21:  real: 215,191,  official: 213,782,  infectious: 14,976,  died: 27,  dead: 2,998

Jul 22:  real: 215,486,  official: 214,187,  infectious: 14,042,  died: 30,  dead: 3,028

Jul 23:  real: 215,762,  official: 214,541,  infectious: 13,126,  died: 29,  dead: 3,057

Jul 24:  real: 216,019,  official: 214,876,  infectious: 12,242,  died: 26,  dead: 3,083

Jul 25:  real: 216,259,  official: 215,191,  infectious: 11,398,  died: 25,  dead: 3,108

Jul 26:  real: 216,482,  official: 215,486,  infectious: 10,595,  died: 24,  dead: 3,132

Jul 27:  real: 216,689,  official: 215,762,  infectious: 9,843,  died: 23,  dead: 3,155

Jul 28:  real: 216,881,  official: 216,019,  infectious: 9,143,  died: 22,  dead: 3,177

Jul 29:  real: 217,059,  official: 216,259,  infectious: 8,490,  died: 20,  dead: 3,197

Jul 30:  real: 217,225,  official: 216,482,  infectious: 7,878,  died: 19,  dead: 3,216

Jul 31:  real: 217,378,  official: 216,689,  infectious: 7,292,  died: 17,  dead: 3,233

Aug  1:  real: 217,520,  official: 216,881,  infectious: 6,733,  died: 16,  dead: 3,249

Aug  2:  real: 217,650,  official: 217,059,  infectious: 6,198,  died: 14,  dead: 3,263

Aug  3:  real: 217,770,  official: 217,225,  infectious: 5,688,  died: 13,  dead: 3,276

Aug  4:  real: 217,879,  official: 217,378,  infectious: 5,206,  died: 11,  dead: 3,287

Aug  5:  real: 217,979,  official: 217,520,  infectious: 4,763,  died: 9,  dead: 3,296

Aug  6:  real: 218,071,  official: 217,650,  infectious: 4,357,  died: 9,  dead: 3,305

Aug  7:  real: 218,155,  official: 217,770,  infectious: 3,993,  died: 8,  dead: 3,313

Aug  8:  real: 218,232,  official: 217,879,  infectious: 3,670,  died: 8,  dead: 3,321

Aug  9:  real: 218,303,  official: 217,979,  infectious: 3,395,  died: 7,  dead: 3,328

Aug 10:  real: 218,369,  official: 218,071,  infectious: 3,157,  died: 7,  dead: 3,335

Aug 11:  real: 218,431,  official: 218,155,  infectious: 2,930,  died: 6,  dead: 3,341

Aug 12:  real: 218,488,  official: 218,232,  infectious: 2,716,  died: 6,  dead: 3,347

Aug 13:  real: 218,541,  official: 218,303,  infectious: 2,516,  died: 5,  dead: 3,352

Aug 14:  real: 218,590,  official: 218,369,  infectious: 2,330,  died: 4,  dead: 3,356

Aug 15:  real: 218,635,  official: 218,431,  infectious: 2,156,  died: 4,  dead: 3,360

Aug 16:  real: 218,677,  official: 218,488,  infectious: 1,994,  died: 4,  dead: 3,364

Aug 17:  real: 218,716,  official: 218,541,  infectious: 1,843,  died: 3,  dead: 3,367

Aug 18:  real: 218,752,  official: 218,590,  infectious: 1,703,  died: 3,  dead: 3,370

Aug 19:  real: 218,785,  official: 218,635,  infectious: 1,573,  died: 3,  dead: 3,373

Aug 20:  real: 218,816,  official: 218,677,  infectious: 1,453,  died: 3,  dead: 3,376

Aug 21:  real: 218,844,  official: 218,716,  infectious: 1,340,  died: 2,  dead: 3,378

Aug 22:  real: 218,870,  official: 218,752,  infectious: 1,236,  died: 2,  dead: 3,380

Aug 23:  real: 218,894,  official: 218,785,  infectious: 1,140,  died: 2,  dead: 3,382

Aug 24:  real: 218,916,  official: 218,816,  infectious: 1,052,  died: 2,  dead: 3,384

Aug 25:  real: 218,936,  official: 218,844,  infectious: 970,  died: 1,  dead: 3,385

Aug 26:  real: 218,955,  official: 218,870,  infectious: 896,  died: 1,  dead: 3,386

Aug 27:  real: 218,972,  official: 218,894,  infectious: 828,  died: 1,  dead: 3,387

Aug 28:  real: 218,988,  official: 218,916,  infectious: 766,  died: 1,  dead: 3,388

Aug 29:  real: 219,003,  official: 218,936,  infectious: 709,  died: 1,  dead: 3,389

Aug 30:  real: 219,017,  official: 218,955,  infectious: 657,  died: 1,  dead: 3,390

Aug 31:  real: 219,030,  official: 218,972,  infectious: 609,  died: 1,  dead: 3,391

Sep  1:  real: 219,042,  official: 218,988,  infectious: 564,  died: 1,  dead: 3,392

Sep  2:  real: 219,053,  official: 219,003,  infectious: 523,  died: 1,  dead: 3,393

Sep  3:  real: 219,063,  official: 219,017,  infectious: 484,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep  4:  real: 219,072,  official: 219,030,  infectious: 447,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep  5:  real: 219,081,  official: 219,042,  infectious: 415,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep  6:  real: 219,089,  official: 219,053,  infectious: 385,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep  7:  real: 219,097,  official: 219,063,  infectious: 358,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep  8:  real: 219,104,  official: 219,072,  infectious: 331,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep  9:  real: 219,110,  official: 219,081,  infectious: 307,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 10:  real: 219,116,  official: 219,089,  infectious: 284,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 11:  real: 219,122,  official: 219,097,  infectious: 263,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 12:  real: 219,127,  official: 219,104,  infectious: 245,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 13:  real: 219,132,  official: 219,110,  infectious: 228,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 14:  real: 219,136,  official: 219,116,  infectious: 212,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 15:  real: 219,140,  official: 219,122,  infectious: 198,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 16:  real: 219,144,  official: 219,127,  infectious: 184,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 17:  real: 219,148,  official: 219,132,  infectious: 170,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 18:  real: 219,151,  official: 219,136,  infectious: 158,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 19:  real: 219,154,  official: 219,140,  infectious: 147,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 20:  real: 219,157,  official: 219,144,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 21:  real: 219,160,  official: 219,148,  infectious: 128,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 22:  real: 219,163,  official: 219,151,  infectious: 119,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 23:  real: 219,165,  official: 219,154,  infectious: 111,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 24:  real: 219,167,  official: 219,157,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 25:  real: 219,169,  official: 219,160,  infectious: 97,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 26:  real: 219,171,  official: 219,163,  infectious: 91,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 27:  real: 219,173,  official: 219,165,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 28:  real: 219,175,  official: 219,167,  infectious: 80,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 29:  real: 219,177,  official: 219,169,  infectious: 75,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Sep 30:  real: 219,178,  official: 219,171,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  1:  real: 219,179,  official: 219,173,  infectious: 67,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  2:  real: 219,180,  official: 219,175,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  3:  real: 219,181,  official: 219,177,  infectious: 57,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  4:  real: 219,182,  official: 219,178,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  5:  real: 219,183,  official: 219,179,  infectious: 49,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  6:  real: 219,184,  official: 219,180,  infectious: 46,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  7:  real: 219,185,  official: 219,181,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  8:  real: 219,186,  official: 219,182,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct  9:  real: 219,187,  official: 219,183,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 10:  real: 219,188,  official: 219,184,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 11:  real: 219,189,  official: 219,185,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 12:  real: 219,190,  official: 219,186,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 13:  real: 219,191,  official: 219,187,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 14:  real: 219,192,  official: 219,188,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 15:  real: 219,193,  official: 219,189,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 16:  real: 219,194,  official: 219,190,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 17:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,191,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 18:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,192,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 19:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,193,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 20:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,194,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 21:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 22:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 23:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 24:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 25:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 26:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 27:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 28:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 29:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 30:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Oct 31:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  1:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  2:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  3:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  4:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  5:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  6:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  7:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  8:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov  9:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 10:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 11:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 12:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 13:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 14:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 15:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 16:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 17:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 18:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 19:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 20:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 21:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 22:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 23:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 24:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 25:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 26:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 27:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 28:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 29:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Nov 30:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  1:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  2:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  3:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  4:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  5:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  6:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  7:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  8:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec  9:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 10:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 11:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 12:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 13:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 14:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 15:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 16:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 17:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 18:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 19:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 20:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 21:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 22:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 23:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 24:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 25:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 26:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 27:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 28:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 29:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 30:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

Dec 31:  real: 219,195,  official: 219,195,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,393

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     2,500 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        147:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
        879:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      2,514:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,393:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.10%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0210
Official uninf: 22,805,775 / Adult Pop.: 23,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.16%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0085
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.12%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0212