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COVID-19 Forecast for Japan, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
385 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Japan HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 385 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Japan run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Japan are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        985:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        985:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Japan COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.006, at 100.60% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 364,  official: 256,  infectious: 364,  died: 6,  dead: 6

Mar  2:  real: 420,  official: 274,  infectious: 420,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar  3:  real: 461,  official: 293,  infectious: 461,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar  4:  real: 502,  official: 331,  infectious: 502,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar  5:  real: 530,  official: 364,  infectious: 530,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar  6:  real: 587,  official: 420,  infectious: 587,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar  7:  real: 639,  official: 461,  infectious: 639,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar  8:  real: 691,  official: 502,  infectious: 691,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Mar  9:  real: 734,  official: 530,  infectious: 734,  died: 2,  dead: 9

Mar 10:  real: 804,  official: 587,  infectious: 804,  died: 3,  dead: 12

Mar 11:  real: 833,  official: 639,  infectious: 833,  died: 3,  dead: 15

Mar 12:  real: 850,  official: 691,  infectious: 850,  died: 4,  dead: 19

Mar 13:  real: 878,  official: 734,  infectious: 878,  died: 2,  dead: 21

Mar 14:  real: 914,  official: 804,  infectious: 914,  died: 1,  dead: 22

Mar 15:  real: 943,  official: 833,  infectious: 943,  died: 2,  dead: 24

Mar 16:  real: 1,007,  official: 850,  infectious: 1,007,  died: 4,  dead: 28

Mar 17:  real: 1,054,  official: 878,  infectious: 1,054,  died: 1,  dead: 29

Mar 18:  real: 1,101,  official: 914,  infectious: 1,101,  died: 0,  dead: 29

Mar 19:  real: 1,128,  official: 943,  infectious: 1,128,  died: 4,  dead: 33

Mar 20:  real: 1,193,  official: 1,007,  infectious: 1,193,  died: 2,  dead: 35

Mar 21:  real: 1,307,  official: 1,054,  infectious: 1,307,  died: 1,  dead: 36

Mar 22:  real: 1,387,  official: 1,101,  infectious: 1,387,  died: 5,  dead: 41

Mar 23:  real: 1,499,  official: 1,128,  infectious: 1,499,  died: 1,  dead: 42

Mar 24:  real: 1,693,  official: 1,193,  infectious: 1,693,  died: 1,  dead: 43

Mar 25:  real: 1,866,  official: 1,307,  infectious: 1,866,  died: 2,  dead: 45

Mar 26:  real: 1,953,  official: 1,387,  infectious: 1,953,  died: 2,  dead: 47

Mar 27:  real: 2,178,  official: 1,499,  infectious: 2,178,  died: 2,  dead: 49

Mar 28:  real: 2,384,  official: 1,693,  infectious: 2,384,  died: 3,  dead: 52

Mar 29:  real: 2,617,  official: 1,866,  infectious: 2,617,  died: 2,  dead: 54

Mar 30:  real: 2,935,  official: 1,953,  infectious: 2,935,  died: 2,  dead: 56

Mar 31:  real: 3,139,  official: 2,178,  infectious: 3,139,  died: 1,  dead: 57

Apr  1:  real: 3,654,  official: 2,384,  infectious: 3,654,  died: 0,  dead: 57

Apr  2:  real: 3,906,  official: 2,617,  infectious: 3,906,  died: 6,  dead: 63

Apr  3:  real: 4,257,  official: 2,935,  infectious: 4,257,  died: 6,  dead: 69

Apr  4:  real: 4,667,  official: 3,139,  infectious: 4,667,  died: 8,  dead: 77

Apr  5:  real: 5,347,  official: 3,654,  infectious: 5,347,  died: 8,  dead: 85

Apr  6:  real: 6,005,  official: 3,906,  infectious: 6,005,  died: 7,  dead: 92

Apr  7:  real: 6,748,  official: 4,257,  infectious: 6,748,  died: 1,  dead: 93

Apr  8:  real: 7,370,  official: 4,667,  infectious: 7,370,  died: 1,  dead: 94

Apr  9:  real: 7,618,  official: 5,347,  infectious: 7,618,  died: 5,  dead: 99

Apr 10:  real: 7,885,  official: 6,005,  infectious: 7,885,  died: 0,  dead: 99

Apr 11:  real: 8,626,  official: 6,748,  infectious: 8,626,  died: 9,  dead: 108

Apr 12:  real: 9,231,  official: 7,370,  infectious: 9,231,  died: 15,  dead: 123

Apr 13:  real: 9,787,  official: 7,618,  infectious: 9,787,  died: 20,  dead: 143

Apr 14:  real: 10,296,  official: 7,885,  infectious: 10,296,  died: 3,  dead: 146

Apr 15:  real: 10,797,  official: 8,626,  infectious: 10,797,  died: 32,  dead: 178

Apr 16:  real: 11,135,  official: 9,231,  infectious: 11,135,  died: 12,  dead: 190

Apr 17:  real: 11,512,  official: 9,787,  infectious: 11,512,  died: 0,  dead: 190

Apr 18:  real: 11,950,  official: 10,296,  infectious: 11,950,  died: 32,  dead: 222

Apr 19:  real: 12,368,  official: 10,797,  infectious: 12,368,  died: 14,  dead: 236

Apr 20:  real: 12,712,  official: 11,135,  infectious: 12,712,  died: 27,  dead: 263

Apr 21:  real: 13,231,  official: 11,512,  infectious: 13,231,  died: 18,  dead: 281

Apr 22:  real: 13,449,  official: 11,950,  infectious: 13,449,  died: 18,  dead: 299

Apr 23:  real: 13,614,  official: 12,368,  infectious: 13,614,  died: 29,  dead: 328

Apr 24:  real: 13,736,  official: 12,712,  infectious: 13,736,  died: 17,  dead: 345

Apr 25:  real: 13,895,  official: 13,231,  infectious: 13,895,  died: 15,  dead: 360

Apr 26:  real: 14,088,  official: 13,449,  infectious: 14,088,  died: 12,  dead: 372

Apr 27:  real: 14,305,  official: 13,614,  infectious: 14,305,  died: 13,  dead: 385

Apr 28:  real: 14,571,  official: 13,736,  infectious: 14,571,  died: 9,  dead: 394

Apr 29:  real: 14,877,  official: 13,895,  infectious: 14,877,  died: 19,  dead: 413

Apr 30:  real: 15,078,  official: 14,088,  infectious: 15,078,  died: 17,  dead: 430

May  1:  real: 15,253,  official: 14,305,  infectious: 15,253,  died: 25,  dead: 455

May  2:  real: 15,253,  official: 14,571,  infectious: 15,253,  died: 19,  dead: 474

May  3:  real: 15,477,  official: 14,877,  infectious: 15,477,  died: 13,  dead: 487

May  4:  real: 15,575,  official: 15,078,  infectious: 15,575,  died: 49,  dead: 536

May  5:  real: 15,663,  official: 15,253,  infectious: 15,663,  died: 20,  dead: 556

May  6:  real: 15,777,  official: 15,253,  infectious: 15,777,  died: 0,  dead: 556

May  7:  real: 15,847,  official: 15,477,  infectious: 15,847,  died: 21,  dead: 577

May  8:  real: 15,968,  official: 15,575,  infectious: 15,968,  died: 13,  dead: 590

May  9:  real: 16,049,  official: 15,663,  infectious: 16,049,  died: 17,  dead: 607

May 10:  real: 16,120,  official: 15,777,  infectious: 16,120,  died: 17,  dead: 624

May 11:  real: 16,203,  official: 15,847,  infectious: 16,203,  died: 9,  dead: 633

May 12:  real: 16,237,  official: 15,968,  infectious: 16,237,  died: 24,  dead: 657

May 13:  real: 16,285,  official: 16,049,  infectious: 16,285,  died: 21,  dead: 678

May 14:  real: 16,305,  official: 16,120,  infectious: 16,305,  died: 19,  dead: 697

May 15:  real: 16,367,  official: 16,203,  infectious: 16,367,  died: 16,  dead: 713

May 16:  real: 16,385,  official: 16,237,  infectious: 16,385,  died: 12,  dead: 725

May 17:  real: 16,424,  official: 16,285,  infectious: 16,424,  died: 19,  dead: 744

May 18:  real: 16,513,  official: 16,305,  infectious: 16,513,  died: 5,  dead: 749

May 19:  real: 16,536,  official: 16,367,  infectious: 16,536,  died: 19,  dead: 768

May 20:  real: 16,550,  official: 16,385,  infectious: 16,550,  died: 3,  dead: 771

May 21:  real: 16,581,  official: 16,424,  infectious: 16,581,  died: 6,  dead: 777

May 22:  real: 16,623,  official: 16,513,  infectious: 16,623,  died: 19,  dead: 796

May 23:  real: 16,651,  official: 16,536,  infectious: 16,651,  died: 12,  dead: 808

May 24:  real: 16,683,  official: 16,550,  infectious: 16,683,  died: 12,  dead: 820

May 25:  real: 16,719,  official: 16,581,  infectious: 16,719,  died: 10,  dead: 830

May 26:  real: 16,804,  official: 16,623,  infectious: 16,804,  died: 16,  dead: 846

May 27:  real: 16,851,  official: 16,651,  infectious: 16,851,  died: 12,  dead: 858

May 28:  real: 16,884,  official: 16,683,  infectious: 16,884,  died: 9,  dead: 867

May 29:  real: 16,930,  official: 16,719,  infectious: 16,930,  died: 7,  dead: 874

May 30:  real: 16,986,  official: 16,804,  infectious: 16,986,  died: 12,  dead: 886

May 31:  real: 17,018,  official: 16,851,  infectious: 17,018,  died: 5,  dead: 891

Jun  1:  real: 17,064,  official: 16,884,  infectious: 17,064,  died: 1,  dead: 892

Jun  2:  real: 17,103,  official: 16,930,  infectious: 17,103,  died: 2,  dead: 894

Jun  3:  real: 17,141,  official: 16,986,  infectious: 17,141,  died: 6,  dead: 900

Jun  4:  real: 17,174,  official: 17,018,  infectious: 17,174,  died: 3,  dead: 903

Jun  5:  real: 17,210,  official: 17,064,  infectious: 17,210,  died: 4,  dead: 907

Jun  6:  real: 17,251,  official: 17,103,  infectious: 17,251,  died: 7,  dead: 914

Jun  7:  real: 17,292,  official: 17,141,  infectious: 17,292,  died: 2,  dead: 916

Jun  8:  real: 17,332,  official: 17,174,  infectious: 17,332,  died: 0,  dead: 916

Jun  9:  real: 17,382,  official: 17,210,  infectious: 17,382,  died: 0,  dead: 916

Jun 10:  real: 17,429,  official: 17,251,  infectious: 17,429,  died: 3,  dead: 919

Jun 11:  real: 17,502,  official: 17,292,  infectious: 17,502,  died: 1,  dead: 920

Jun 12:  real: 17,587,  official: 17,332,  infectious: 17,587,  died: 2,  dead: 922

Jun 13:  real: 17,628,  official: 17,382,  infectious: 17,628,  died: 2,  dead: 924

Jun 14:  real: 17,668,  official: 17,429,  infectious: 17,668,  died: 1,  dead: 925

Jun 15:  real: 17,740,  official: 17,502,  infectious: 17,740,  died: 0,  dead: 925

Jun 16:  real: 17,799,  official: 17,587,  infectious: 17,799,  died: 2,  dead: 927

Jun 17:  real: 17,864,  official: 17,628,  infectious: 17,864,  died: 4,  dead: 931

Jun 18:  real: 17,916,  official: 17,668,  infectious: 17,916,  died: 4,  dead: 935

Jun 19:  real: 17,968,  official: 17,740,  infectious: 17,968,  died: 0,  dead: 935

Jun 20:  real: 18,024,  official: 17,799,  infectious: 18,024,  died: 17,  dead: 952

Jun 21:  real: 18,110,  official: 17,864,  infectious: 18,110,  died: 1,  dead: 953

Jun 22:  real: 18,197,  official: 17,916,  infectious: 18,197,  died: 0,  dead: 953

Jun 23:  real: 18,297,  official: 17,968,  infectious: 18,297,  died: 2,  dead: 955

Jun 24:  real: 18,390,  official: 18,024,  infectious: 18,390,  died: 8,  dead: 963

Jun 25:  real: 18,476,  official: 18,110,  infectious: 18,476,  died: 5,  dead: 968

Jun 26:  real: 18,593,  official: 18,197,  infectious: 18,593,  died: 1,  dead: 969

Jun 27:  real: 18,723,  official: 18,297,  infectious: 18,723,  died: 2,  dead: 971

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 18,730,  official: 18,390,  infectious: 1,209,  died: 0,  dead: 971

Jun 29:  real: 18,738,  official: 18,476,  infectious: 1,303,  died: 1,  dead: 972

Jun 30:  real: 18,746,  official: 18,593,  infectious: 1,269,  died: 1,  dead: 973

Jul  1:  real: 18,753,  official: 18,723,  infectious: 1,226,  died: 1,  dead: 974

Jul  2:  real: 18,760,  official: 18,730,  infectious: 1,182,  died: 1,  dead: 975

Jul  3:  real: 18,767,  official: 18,738,  infectious: 1,114,  died: 1,  dead: 976

Jul  4:  real: 18,773,  official: 18,746,  infectious: 1,036,  died: 1,  dead: 977

Jul  5:  real: 18,779,  official: 18,753,  infectious: 995,  died: 1,  dead: 978

Jul  6:  real: 18,785,  official: 18,760,  infectious: 954,  died: 0,  dead: 978

Jul  7:  real: 18,790,  official: 18,767,  infectious: 880,  died: 0,  dead: 978

Jul  8:  real: 18,795,  official: 18,773,  infectious: 818,  died: 1,  dead: 979

Jul  9:  real: 18,800,  official: 18,779,  infectious: 768,  died: 1,  dead: 980

Jul 10:  real: 18,804,  official: 18,785,  infectious: 729,  died: 1,  dead: 981

Jul 11:  real: 18,808,  official: 18,790,  infectious: 690,  died: 1,  dead: 982

Jul 12:  real: 18,812,  official: 18,795,  infectious: 647,  died: 1,  dead: 983

Jul 13:  real: 18,815,  official: 18,800,  infectious: 580,  died: 1,  dead: 984

Jul 14:  real: 18,818,  official: 18,804,  infectious: 512,  died: 1,  dead: 985

Jul 15:  real: 18,821,  official: 18,808,  infectious: 433,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 16:  real: 18,823,  official: 18,812,  infectious: 360,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 17:  real: 18,825,  official: 18,815,  infectious: 293,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 18:  real: 18,826,  official: 18,818,  infectious: 199,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 19:  real: 18,827,  official: 18,821,  infectious: 96,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 20:  real: 18,828,  official: 18,823,  infectious: 91,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 21:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,825,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 22:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,826,  infectious: 79,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 23:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,827,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 24:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,828,  infectious: 68,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 25:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 26:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 27:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 28:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 29:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 30:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Jul 31:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  1:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  2:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  3:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  4:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  5:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  6:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  7:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  8:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug  9:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 10:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 11:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 12:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 13:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 14:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 15:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 16:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 17:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 18:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 19:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 20:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 21:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 22:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 23:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 24:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 25:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 26:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 27:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 28:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 29:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 30:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Aug 31:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  1:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  2:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  3:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  4:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  5:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  6:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  7:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  8:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep  9:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 10:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 11:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 12:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 13:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 14:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 15:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 16:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 17:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 18:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 19:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 20:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 21:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 22:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 23:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 24:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 25:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 26:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 27:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 28:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 29:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Sep 30:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  1:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  2:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  3:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  4:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  5:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  6:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  7:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  8:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct  9:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 10:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 11:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 12:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 13:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 14:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 15:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 16:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 17:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 18:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 19:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 20:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 21:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 22:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 23:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 24:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 25:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 26:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 27:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 28:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 29:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 30:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Oct 31:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  1:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  2:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  3:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  4:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  5:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  6:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  7:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  8:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov  9:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 10:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 11:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 12:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 13:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 14:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 15:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 16:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 17:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 18:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 19:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 20:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 21:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 22:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 23:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 24:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 25:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 26:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 27:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 28:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 29:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Nov 30:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  1:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  2:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  3:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  4:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  5:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  6:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  7:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  8:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec  9:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 10:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 11:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 12:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 13:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 14:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 15:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 16:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 17:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 18:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 19:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 20:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 21:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 22:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 23:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 24:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 25:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 26:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 27:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 28:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 29:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 30:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

Dec 31:  real: 18,829,  official: 18,829,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 985

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 29.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        985:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        985:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.60%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0060
Official uninf: 99,981,277 / Adult Pop.: 100,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.98%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0002
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.60%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0060