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COVID-19 Forecast for Ethiopia, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
254 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Ethiopia HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 254 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Ethiopia run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Ethiopia are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF        50 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
         28:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        104:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        132:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Ethiopia COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.009, at 100.91% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 4,  official: 0,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 5,  official: 0,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 6,  official: 1,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 6,  official: 1,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 7,  official: 4,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 9,  official: 5,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 9,  official: 6,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 11,  official: 6,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 11,  official: 7,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 12,  official: 9,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 12,  official: 9,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 12,  official: 11,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 23:  real: 16,  official: 11,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 24:  real: 16,  official: 12,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 25:  real: 21,  official: 12,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 26:  real: 23,  official: 12,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 27:  real: 26,  official: 16,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 28:  real: 29,  official: 16,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 29:  real: 29,  official: 21,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 30:  real: 35,  official: 23,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 31:  real: 38,  official: 26,  infectious: 38,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  1:  real: 43,  official: 29,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  2:  real: 44,  official: 29,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  3:  real: 52,  official: 35,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  4:  real: 55,  official: 38,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Apr  5:  real: 56,  official: 43,  infectious: 56,  died: 2,  dead: 2

Apr  6:  real: 65,  official: 44,  infectious: 65,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  7:  real: 69,  official: 52,  infectious: 69,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  8:  real: 71,  official: 55,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  9:  real: 74,  official: 56,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 10:  real: 82,  official: 65,  infectious: 82,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Apr 11:  real: 85,  official: 69,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 12:  real: 92,  official: 71,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 13:  real: 96,  official: 74,  infectious: 96,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 14:  real: 105,  official: 82,  infectious: 105,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 15:  real: 108,  official: 85,  infectious: 108,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 16:  real: 111,  official: 92,  infectious: 111,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 17:  real: 114,  official: 96,  infectious: 114,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 18:  real: 116,  official: 105,  infectious: 116,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 19:  real: 116,  official: 108,  infectious: 116,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 20:  real: 117,  official: 111,  infectious: 117,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 21:  real: 122,  official: 114,  infectious: 122,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 22:  real: 123,  official: 116,  infectious: 123,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 23:  real: 124,  official: 116,  infectious: 124,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 24:  real: 126,  official: 117,  infectious: 126,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 25:  real: 130,  official: 122,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 26:  real: 131,  official: 123,  infectious: 131,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 27:  real: 133,  official: 124,  infectious: 133,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 28:  real: 133,  official: 126,  infectious: 133,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 29:  real: 135,  official: 130,  infectious: 135,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr 30:  real: 140,  official: 131,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May  1:  real: 145,  official: 133,  infectious: 145,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May  2:  real: 162,  official: 133,  infectious: 162,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May  3:  real: 191,  official: 135,  infectious: 191,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May  4:  real: 194,  official: 140,  infectious: 194,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May  5:  real: 210,  official: 145,  infectious: 210,  died: 1,  dead: 4

May  6:  real: 239,  official: 162,  infectious: 239,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May  7:  real: 250,  official: 191,  infectious: 250,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May  8:  real: 261,  official: 194,  infectious: 261,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May  9:  real: 263,  official: 210,  infectious: 263,  died: 1,  dead: 5

May 10:  real: 272,  official: 239,  infectious: 272,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 11:  real: 287,  official: 250,  infectious: 287,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 12:  real: 306,  official: 261,  infectious: 306,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 13:  real: 317,  official: 263,  infectious: 317,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 14:  real: 352,  official: 272,  infectious: 352,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 15:  real: 365,  official: 287,  infectious: 365,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 16:  real: 389,  official: 306,  infectious: 389,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 17:  real: 399,  official: 317,  infectious: 399,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 18:  real: 433,  official: 352,  infectious: 433,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 19:  real: 494,  official: 365,  infectious: 494,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 20:  real: 582,  official: 389,  infectious: 582,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 21:  real: 655,  official: 399,  infectious: 655,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 22:  real: 701,  official: 433,  infectious: 701,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 23:  real: 731,  official: 494,  infectious: 731,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 24:  real: 831,  official: 582,  infectious: 831,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 25:  real: 968,  official: 655,  infectious: 968,  died: 0,  dead: 5

May 26:  real: 1,063,  official: 701,  infectious: 1,063,  died: 1,  dead: 6

May 27:  real: 1,172,  official: 731,  infectious: 1,172,  died: 0,  dead: 6

May 28:  real: 1,257,  official: 831,  infectious: 1,257,  died: 1,  dead: 7

May 29:  real: 1,344,  official: 968,  infectious: 1,344,  died: 1,  dead: 8

May 30:  real: 1,486,  official: 1,063,  infectious: 1,486,  died: 0,  dead: 8

May 31:  real: 1,636,  official: 1,172,  infectious: 1,636,  died: 3,  dead: 11

Jun  1:  real: 1,805,  official: 1,257,  infectious: 1,805,  died: 1,  dead: 12

Jun  2:  real: 1,934,  official: 1,344,  infectious: 1,934,  died: 2,  dead: 14

Jun  3:  real: 2,020,  official: 1,486,  infectious: 2,020,  died: 3,  dead: 17

Jun  4:  real: 2,156,  official: 1,636,  infectious: 2,156,  died: 1,  dead: 18

Jun  5:  real: 2,336,  official: 1,805,  infectious: 2,336,  died: 1,  dead: 19

Jun  6:  real: 2,506,  official: 1,934,  infectious: 2,506,  died: 1,  dead: 20

Jun  7:  real: 2,670,  official: 2,020,  infectious: 2,670,  died: 7,  dead: 27

Jun  8:  real: 2,915,  official: 2,156,  infectious: 2,915,  died: 0,  dead: 27

Jun  9:  real: 3,166,  official: 2,336,  infectious: 3,166,  died: 5,  dead: 32

Jun 10:  real: 3,345,  official: 2,506,  infectious: 3,345,  died: 3,  dead: 35

Jun 11:  real: 3,521,  official: 2,670,  infectious: 3,521,  died: 5,  dead: 40

Jun 12:  real: 3,630,  official: 2,915,  infectious: 3,630,  died: 7,  dead: 47

Jun 13:  real: 3,759,  official: 3,166,  infectious: 3,759,  died: 8,  dead: 55

Jun 14:  real: 3,954,  official: 3,345,  infectious: 3,954,  died: 2,  dead: 57

Jun 15:  real: 4,070,  official: 3,521,  infectious: 4,070,  died: 3,  dead: 60

Jun 16:  real: 4,469,  official: 3,630,  infectious: 4,469,  died: 1,  dead: 61

Jun 17:  real: 4,532,  official: 3,759,  infectious: 4,532,  died: 2,  dead: 63

Jun 18:  real: 4,663,  official: 3,954,  infectious: 4,663,  died: 2,  dead: 65

Jun 19:  real: 4,848,  official: 4,070,  infectious: 4,848,  died: 7,  dead: 72

Jun 20:  real: 5,034,  official: 4,469,  infectious: 5,034,  died: 0,  dead: 72

Jun 21:  real: 5,175,  official: 4,532,  infectious: 5,175,  died: 2,  dead: 74

Jun 22:  real: 5,425,  official: 4,663,  infectious: 5,425,  died: 1,  dead: 75

Jun 23:  real: 5,570,  official: 4,848,  infectious: 5,570,  died: 0,  dead: 75

Jun 24:  real: 5,689,  official: 5,034,  infectious: 5,689,  died: 3,  dead: 78

Jun 25:  real: 5,846,  official: 5,175,  infectious: 5,846,  died: 3,  dead: 81

Jun 26:  real: 5,846,  official: 5,425,  infectious: 5,846,  died: 8,  dead: 89

Jun 27:  real: 5,846,  official: 5,570,  infectious: 5,846,  died: 5,  dead: 94

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 5,872,  official: 5,689,  infectious: 2,894,  died: 2,  dead: 96


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 5,897,  official: 5,846,  infectious: 2,762,  died: 1,  dead: 97

Jun 30:  real: 5,920,  official: 5,846,  infectious: 2,564,  died: 3,  dead: 100

Jul  1:  real: 5,942,  official: 5,846,  infectious: 2,360,  died: 1,  dead: 101

Jul  2:  real: 5,962,  official: 5,872,  infectious: 2,217,  died: 1,  dead: 102

Jul  3:  real: 5,981,  official: 5,897,  infectious: 2,056,  died: 6,  dead: 108

Jul  4:  real: 5,999,  official: 5,920,  infectious: 1,963,  died: 3,  dead: 111


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul  5:  real: 6,016,  official: 5,942,  infectious: 1,855,  died: 6,  dead: 117

Jul  6:  real: 6,031,  official: 5,962,  infectious: 1,689,  died: 3,  dead: 120


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jul  7:  real: 6,046,  official: 5,981,  infectious: 1,608,  died: 3,  dead: 123

Jul  8:  real: 6,058,  official: 5,999,  infectious: 1,299,  died: 4,  dead: 127

Jul  9:  real: 6,069,  official: 6,016,  infectious: 1,259,  died: 0,  dead: 127

Jul 10:  real: 6,080,  official: 6,031,  infectious: 1,162,  died: 0,  dead: 127

Jul 11:  real: 6,089,  official: 6,046,  infectious: 1,019,  died: 1,  dead: 128


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 12:  real: 6,097,  official: 6,058,  infectious: 875,  died: 1,  dead: 129

Jul 13:  real: 6,104,  official: 6,069,  infectious: 767,  died: 1,  dead: 130

Jul 14:  real: 6,109,  official: 6,080,  infectious: 571,  died: 1,  dead: 131

Jul 15:  real: 6,113,  official: 6,089,  infectious: 457,  died: 1,  dead: 132

Jul 16:  real: 6,116,  official: 6,097,  infectious: 364,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 17:  real: 6,118,  official: 6,104,  infectious: 240,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 18:  real: 6,120,  official: 6,109,  infectious: 241,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 19:  real: 6,122,  official: 6,113,  infectious: 242,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 20:  real: 6,124,  official: 6,116,  infectious: 221,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 21:  real: 6,126,  official: 6,118,  infectious: 201,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 22:  real: 6,128,  official: 6,120,  infectious: 183,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 23:  real: 6,130,  official: 6,122,  infectious: 166,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 24:  real: 6,131,  official: 6,124,  infectious: 150,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 25:  real: 6,132,  official: 6,126,  infectious: 135,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 26:  real: 6,133,  official: 6,128,  infectious: 120,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 27:  real: 6,134,  official: 6,130,  infectious: 106,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 28:  real: 6,135,  official: 6,131,  infectious: 94,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 29:  real: 6,136,  official: 6,132,  infectious: 82,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 30:  real: 6,137,  official: 6,133,  infectious: 72,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Jul 31:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,134,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  1:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,135,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  2:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,136,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  3:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,137,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  4:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  5:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  6:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  7:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  8:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug  9:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 10:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 11:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 12:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 13:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 14:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 15:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 16:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 17:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 18:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 19:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 20:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 21:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 22:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 23:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 24:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 25:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 26:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 27:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 28:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 29:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 30:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Aug 31:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  1:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  2:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  3:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  4:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  5:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  6:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  7:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  8:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep  9:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 10:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 11:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 12:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 13:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 14:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 15:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 16:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 17:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 18:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 19:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 20:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 21:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 22:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 23:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 24:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 25:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 26:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 27:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 28:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 29:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Sep 30:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  1:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  2:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  3:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  4:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  5:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  6:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  7:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  8:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct  9:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 10:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 11:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 12:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 13:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 14:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 15:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 16:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 17:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 18:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 19:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 20:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 21:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 22:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 23:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 24:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 25:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 26:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 27:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 28:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 29:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 30:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Oct 31:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  1:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  2:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  3:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  4:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  5:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  6:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  7:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  8:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov  9:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 10:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 11:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 12:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 13:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 14:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 15:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 16:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 17:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 18:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 19:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 20:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 21:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 22:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 23:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 24:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 25:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 26:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 27:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 28:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 29:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Nov 30:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  1:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  2:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  3:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  4:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  5:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  6:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  7:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  8:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec  9:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 10:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 11:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 12:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 13:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 14:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 15:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 16:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 17:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 18:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 19:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 20:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 21:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 22:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 23:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 24:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 25:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 26:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 27:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 28:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 29:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 30:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

Dec 31:  real: 6,138,  official: 6,138,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 132

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF        50 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          6:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  3.
         28:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        104:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        132:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.91%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0091
Official uninf: 69,994,154 / Adult Pop.: 70,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.99%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0001
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.91%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0091