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COVID-19 Forecast for France, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
655 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL France HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 655 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in France run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in France are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         22:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     29,904:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     29,904:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
France COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.004, at 100.35% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 423,  official: 130,  infectious: 423,  died: 2,  dead: 2

Mar  2:  real: 653,  official: 191,  infectious: 653,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar  3:  real: 949,  official: 212,  infectious: 949,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar  4:  real: 1,209,  official: 285,  infectious: 1,209,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar  5:  real: 1,412,  official: 423,  infectious: 1,412,  died: 3,  dead: 7

Mar  6:  real: 1,784,  official: 653,  infectious: 1,784,  died: 2,  dead: 9

Mar  7:  real: 2,281,  official: 949,  infectious: 2,281,  died: 7,  dead: 16

Mar  8:  real: 2,876,  official: 1,209,  infectious: 2,876,  died: 3,  dead: 19

Mar  9:  real: 3,661,  official: 1,412,  infectious: 3,661,  died: 11,  dead: 30

Mar 10:  real: 4,499,  official: 1,784,  infectious: 4,499,  died: 3,  dead: 33

Mar 11:  real: 5,423,  official: 2,281,  infectious: 5,423,  died: 15,  dead: 48

Mar 12:  real: 6,633,  official: 2,876,  infectious: 6,633,  died: 13,  dead: 61

Mar 13:  real: 7,730,  official: 3,661,  infectious: 7,730,  died: 18,  dead: 79

Mar 14:  real: 9,134,  official: 4,499,  infectious: 9,134,  died: 12,  dead: 91

Mar 15:  real: 10,995,  official: 5,423,  infectious: 10,995,  died: 36,  dead: 127

Mar 16:  real: 12,612,  official: 6,633,  infectious: 12,612,  died: 21,  dead: 148

Mar 17:  real: 14,459,  official: 7,730,  infectious: 14,459,  died: 27,  dead: 175

Mar 18:  real: 16,018,  official: 9,134,  infectious: 16,018,  died: 89,  dead: 264

Mar 19:  real: 19,856,  official: 10,995,  infectious: 19,856,  died: 108,  dead: 372

Mar 20:  real: 22,304,  official: 12,612,  infectious: 22,304,  died: 78,  dead: 450

Mar 21:  real: 25,233,  official: 14,459,  infectious: 25,233,  died: 112,  dead: 562

Mar 22:  real: 29,155,  official: 16,018,  infectious: 29,155,  died: 112,  dead: 674

Mar 23:  real: 32,964,  official: 19,856,  infectious: 32,964,  died: 186,  dead: 860

Mar 24:  real: 37,575,  official: 22,304,  infectious: 37,575,  died: 240,  dead: 1,100

Mar 25:  real: 40,174,  official: 25,233,  infectious: 40,174,  died: 231,  dead: 1,331

Mar 26:  real: 44,550,  official: 29,155,  infectious: 44,550,  died: 365,  dead: 1,696

Mar 27:  real: 52,128,  official: 32,964,  infectious: 52,128,  died: 299,  dead: 1,995

Mar 28:  real: 56,989,  official: 37,575,  infectious: 56,989,  died: 319,  dead: 2,314

Mar 29:  real: 59,105,  official: 40,174,  infectious: 59,105,  died: 292,  dead: 2,606

Mar 30:  real: 64,338,  official: 44,550,  infectious: 64,338,  died: 418,  dead: 3,024

Mar 31:  real: 68,605,  official: 52,128,  infectious: 68,605,  died: 499,  dead: 3,523

Apr  1:  real: 70,478,  official: 56,989,  infectious: 70,478,  died: 509,  dead: 4,032

Apr  2:  real: 74,390,  official: 59,105,  infectious: 74,390,  died: 1,355,  dead: 5,387

Apr  3:  real: 78,167,  official: 64,338,  infectious: 78,167,  died: 1,120,  dead: 6,507

Apr  4:  real: 82,048,  official: 68,605,  infectious: 82,048,  died: 1,053,  dead: 7,560

Apr  5:  real: 86,334,  official: 70,478,  infectious: 86,334,  died: 518,  dead: 8,078

Apr  6:  real: 90,676,  official: 74,390,  infectious: 90,676,  died: 833,  dead: 8,911

Apr  7:  real: 93,790,  official: 78,167,  infectious: 93,790,  died: 1,417,  dead: 10,328

Apr  8:  real: 95,403,  official: 82,048,  infectious: 95,403,  died: 541,  dead: 10,869

Apr  9:  real: 98,076,  official: 86,334,  infectious: 98,076,  died: 1,341,  dead: 12,210

Apr 10:  real: 103,573,  official: 90,676,  infectious: 103,573,  died: 987,  dead: 13,197

Apr 11:  real: 106,206,  official: 93,790,  infectious: 106,206,  died: 635,  dead: 13,832

Apr 12:  real: 108,847,  official: 95,403,  infectious: 108,847,  died: 561,  dead: 14,393

Apr 13:  real: 109,252,  official: 98,076,  infectious: 109,252,  died: 574,  dead: 14,967

Apr 14:  real: 111,821,  official: 103,573,  infectious: 111,821,  died: 762,  dead: 15,729

Apr 15:  real: 112,606,  official: 106,206,  infectious: 112,606,  died: 1,438,  dead: 17,167

Apr 16:  real: 114,657,  official: 108,847,  infectious: 114,657,  died: 753,  dead: 17,920

Apr 17:  real: 117,324,  official: 109,252,  infectious: 117,324,  died: 761,  dead: 18,681

Apr 18:  real: 119,151,  official: 111,821,  infectious: 119,151,  died: 642,  dead: 19,323

Apr 19:  real: 120,804,  official: 112,606,  infectious: 120,804,  died: 395,  dead: 19,718

Apr 20:  real: 122,577,  official: 114,657,  infectious: 122,577,  died: 547,  dead: 20,265

Apr 21:  real: 124,114,  official: 117,324,  infectious: 124,114,  died: 531,  dead: 20,796

Apr 22:  real: 124,575,  official: 119,151,  infectious: 124,575,  died: 544,  dead: 21,340

Apr 23:  real: 128,339,  official: 120,804,  infectious: 128,339,  died: 516,  dead: 21,856

Apr 24:  real: 129,859,  official: 122,577,  infectious: 129,859,  died: 389,  dead: 22,245

Apr 25:  real: 128,442,  official: 124,114,  infectious: 128,442,  died: 369,  dead: 22,614

Apr 26:  real: 129,581,  official: 124,575,  infectious: 129,581,  died: 242,  dead: 22,856

Apr 27:  real: 130,185,  official: 128,339,  infectious: 130,185,  died: 437,  dead: 23,293

Apr 28:  real: 130,979,  official: 129,859,  infectious: 130,979,  died: 367,  dead: 23,660

Apr 29:  real: 131,287,  official: 128,442,  infectious: 131,287,  died: 427,  dead: 24,087

Apr 30:  real: 131,863,  official: 129,581,  infectious: 131,863,  died: 289,  dead: 24,376

May  1:  real: 132,967,  official: 130,185,  infectious: 132,967,  died: 218,  dead: 24,594

May  2:  real: 137,150,  official: 130,979,  infectious: 137,150,  died: 166,  dead: 24,760

May  3:  real: 137,779,  official: 131,287,  infectious: 137,779,  died: 135,  dead: 24,895

May  4:  real: 138,421,  official: 131,863,  infectious: 138,421,  died: 306,  dead: 25,201

May  5:  real: 138,854,  official: 132,967,  infectious: 138,854,  died: 330,  dead: 25,531

May  6:  real: 139,063,  official: 137,150,  infectious: 139,063,  died: 278,  dead: 25,809

May  7:  real: 139,519,  official: 137,779,  infectious: 139,519,  died: 178,  dead: 25,987

May  8:  real: 140,227,  official: 138,421,  infectious: 140,227,  died: 243,  dead: 26,230

May  9:  real: 140,734,  official: 138,854,  infectious: 140,734,  died: 80,  dead: 26,310

May 10:  real: 141,356,  official: 139,063,  infectious: 141,356,  died: 70,  dead: 26,380

May 11:  real: 141,919,  official: 139,519,  infectious: 141,919,  died: 263,  dead: 26,643

May 12:  real: 142,291,  official: 140,227,  infectious: 142,291,  died: 348,  dead: 26,991

May 13:  real: 142,411,  official: 140,734,  infectious: 142,411,  died: 83,  dead: 27,074

May 14:  real: 142,903,  official: 141,356,  infectious: 142,903,  died: 351,  dead: 27,425

May 15:  real: 143,427,  official: 141,919,  infectious: 143,427,  died: 104,  dead: 27,529

May 16:  real: 143,845,  official: 142,291,  infectious: 143,845,  died: 96,  dead: 27,625

May 17:  real: 144,163,  official: 142,411,  infectious: 144,163,  died: 483,  dead: 28,108

May 18:  real: 144,556,  official: 142,903,  infectious: 144,556,  died: 131,  dead: 28,239

May 19:  real: 144,806,  official: 143,427,  infectious: 144,806,  died: -217,  dead: 28,022

May 20:  real: 144,921,  official: 143,845,  infectious: 144,921,  died: 110,  dead: 28,132

May 21:  real: 145,279,  official: 144,163,  infectious: 145,279,  died: 83,  dead: 28,215

May 22:  real: 145,555,  official: 144,556,  infectious: 145,555,  died: 74,  dead: 28,289

May 23:  real: 145,746,  official: 144,806,  infectious: 145,746,  died: 43,  dead: 28,332

May 24:  real: 149,071,  official: 144,921,  infectious: 149,071,  died: 35,  dead: 28,367

May 25:  real: 149,668,  official: 145,279,  infectious: 149,668,  died: 65,  dead: 28,432

May 26:  real: 151,496,  official: 145,555,  infectious: 151,496,  died: 98,  dead: 28,530

May 27:  real: 151,753,  official: 145,746,  infectious: 151,753,  died: 66,  dead: 28,596

May 28:  real: 152,091,  official: 149,071,  infectious: 152,091,  died: 66,  dead: 28,662

May 29:  real: 151,325,  official: 149,668,  infectious: 151,325,  died: 52,  dead: 28,714

May 30:  real: 151,677,  official: 151,496,  infectious: 151,677,  died: 57,  dead: 28,771

May 31:  real: 152,444,  official: 151,753,  infectious: 152,444,  died: 31,  dead: 28,802

Jun  1:  real: 153,055,  official: 152,091,  infectious: 153,055,  died: 31,  dead: 28,833

Jun  2:  real: 153,634,  official: 151,325,  infectious: 153,634,  died: 107,  dead: 28,940

Jun  3:  real: 153,977,  official: 151,677,  infectious: 153,977,  died: 81,  dead: 29,021

Jun  4:  real: 154,188,  official: 152,444,  infectious: 154,188,  died: 44,  dead: 29,065

Jun  5:  real: 154,591,  official: 153,055,  infectious: 154,591,  died: 46,  dead: 29,111

Jun  6:  real: 155,136,  official: 153,634,  infectious: 155,136,  died: 31,  dead: 29,142

Jun  7:  real: 155,561,  official: 153,977,  infectious: 155,561,  died: 13,  dead: 29,155

Jun  8:  real: 156,287,  official: 154,188,  infectious: 156,287,  died: 54,  dead: 29,209

Jun  9:  real: 156,813,  official: 154,591,  infectious: 156,813,  died: 87,  dead: 29,296

Jun 10:  real: 157,220,  official: 155,136,  infectious: 157,220,  died: 23,  dead: 29,319

Jun 11:  real: 157,372,  official: 155,561,  infectious: 157,372,  died: 27,  dead: 29,346

Jun 12:  real: 157,716,  official: 156,287,  infectious: 157,716,  died: 28,  dead: 29,374

Jun 13:  real: 158,174,  official: 156,813,  infectious: 158,174,  died: 24,  dead: 29,398

Jun 14:  real: 158,641,  official: 157,220,  infectious: 158,641,  died: 9,  dead: 29,407

Jun 15:  real: 159,452,  official: 157,372,  infectious: 159,452,  died: 29,  dead: 29,436

Jun 16:  real: 160,093,  official: 157,716,  infectious: 160,093,  died: 111,  dead: 29,547

Jun 17:  real: 160,377,  official: 158,174,  infectious: 160,377,  died: 28,  dead: 29,575

Jun 18:  real: 160,750,  official: 158,641,  infectious: 160,750,  died: 28,  dead: 29,603

Jun 19:  real: 161,267,  official: 159,452,  infectious: 161,267,  died: 14,  dead: 29,617

Jun 20:  real: 161,348,  official: 160,093,  infectious: 161,348,  died: 16,  dead: 29,633

Jun 21:  real: 161,348,  official: 160,377,  infectious: 161,348,  died: 7,  dead: 29,640

Jun 22:  real: 162,936,  official: 160,750,  infectious: 162,936,  died: 23,  dead: 29,663

Jun 23:  real: 163,458,  official: 161,267,  infectious: 163,458,  died: 57,  dead: 29,720

Jun 24:  real: 163,980,  official: 161,348,  infectious: 163,980,  died: 11,  dead: 29,731

Jun 25:  real: 164,260,  official: 161,348,  infectious: 164,260,  died: 21,  dead: 29,752

Jun 26:  real: 164,801,  official: 162,936,  infectious: 164,801,  died: 26,  dead: 29,778

Jun 27:  real: 165,719,  official: 163,458,  infectious: 165,719,  died: 8,  dead: 29,786

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 165,749,  official: 163,980,  infectious: 8,448,  died: 1,  dead: 29,787

Jun 29:  real: 165,781,  official: 164,260,  infectious: 9,001,  died: 0,  dead: 29,787

Jun 30:  real: 165,811,  official: 164,801,  infectious: 8,370,  died: 22,  dead: 29,809

Jul  1:  real: 165,839,  official: 165,719,  infectious: 7,968,  died: 7,  dead: 29,816

Jul  2:  real: 165,866,  official: 165,749,  infectious: 7,631,  died: 7,  dead: 29,823

Jul  3:  real: 165,892,  official: 165,781,  infectious: 7,286,  died: 3,  dead: 29,826

Jul  4:  real: 165,917,  official: 165,811,  infectious: 6,946,  died: 7,  dead: 29,833

Jul  5:  real: 165,940,  official: 165,839,  infectious: 6,520,  died: 12,  dead: 29,845

Jul  6:  real: 165,962,  official: 165,866,  infectious: 6,115,  died: 0,  dead: 29,845

Jul  7:  real: 165,981,  official: 165,892,  infectious: 5,384,  died: 1,  dead: 29,846

Jul  8:  real: 165,998,  official: 165,917,  infectious: 4,755,  died: 0,  dead: 29,846

Jul  9:  real: 166,014,  official: 165,940,  infectious: 4,541,  died: 22,  dead: 29,868

Jul 10:  real: 166,029,  official: 165,962,  infectious: 4,253,  died: 7,  dead: 29,875

Jul 11:  real: 166,043,  official: 165,981,  infectious: 3,850,  died: 7,  dead: 29,882

Jul 12:  real: 166,056,  official: 165,998,  infectious: 3,795,  died: 3,  dead: 29,885

Jul 13:  real: 166,069,  official: 166,014,  infectious: 3,804,  died: 7,  dead: 29,892

Jul 14:  real: 166,078,  official: 166,029,  infectious: 2,541,  died: 12,  dead: 29,904

Jul 15:  real: 166,086,  official: 166,043,  infectious: 2,131,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 16:  real: 166,092,  official: 166,056,  infectious: 1,717,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 17:  real: 166,097,  official: 166,069,  infectious: 1,497,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 18:  real: 166,101,  official: 166,078,  infectious: 1,066,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 19:  real: 166,102,  official: 166,086,  infectious: 333,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 20:  real: 166,103,  official: 166,092,  infectious: 310,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 21:  real: 166,104,  official: 166,097,  infectious: 282,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 22:  real: 166,105,  official: 166,101,  infectious: 256,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 23:  real: 166,106,  official: 166,102,  infectious: 233,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 24:  real: 166,107,  official: 166,103,  infectious: 211,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 25:  real: 166,108,  official: 166,104,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 26:  real: 166,109,  official: 166,105,  infectious: 168,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 27:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,106,  infectious: 150,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 28:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,107,  infectious: 133,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 29:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,108,  infectious: 117,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 30:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,109,  infectious: 102,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Jul 31:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  1:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 75,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  2:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  3:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  4:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  5:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  6:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  7:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  8:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug  9:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 10:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 11:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 12:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 13:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 14:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 15:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 16:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 17:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 18:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 19:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 20:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 21:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 22:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 23:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 24:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 25:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 26:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 27:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 28:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 29:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 30:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Aug 31:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  1:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  2:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  3:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  4:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  5:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  6:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  7:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  8:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep  9:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 10:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 11:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 12:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 13:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 14:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 15:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 16:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 17:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 18:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 19:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 20:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 21:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 22:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 23:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 24:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 25:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 26:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 27:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 28:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 29:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Sep 30:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  1:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  2:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  3:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  4:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  5:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  6:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  7:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  8:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct  9:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 10:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 11:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 12:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 13:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 14:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 15:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 16:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 17:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 18:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 19:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 20:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 21:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 22:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 23:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 24:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 25:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 26:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 27:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 28:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 29:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 30:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Oct 31:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  1:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  2:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  3:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  4:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  5:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  6:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  7:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  8:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov  9:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 10:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 11:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 12:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 13:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 14:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 15:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 16:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 17:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 18:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 19:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 20:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 21:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 22:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 23:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 24:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 25:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 26:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 27:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 28:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 29:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Nov 30:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  1:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  2:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  3:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  4:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  5:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  6:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  7:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  8:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec  9:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 10:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 11:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 12:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 13:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 14:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 15:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 16:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 17:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 18:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 19:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 20:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 21:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 22:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 23:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 24:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 25:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 26:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 27:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 28:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 29:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 30:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

Dec 31:  real: 166,110,  official: 166,110,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 29,904

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         22:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 30.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     29,904:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     29,904:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.35%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0035
Official uninf: 49,834,281 / Adult Pop.: 50,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.67%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0033
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.35%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0035