COVID-19 Forecast for Netherlands, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
2753 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Netherlands HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 2753 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Netherlands run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Netherlands are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      6,111:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      6,111:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Netherlands COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.001, at 100.08% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 82,  official: 10,  infectious: 82,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 128,  official: 18,  infectious: 128,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 188,  official: 23,  infectious: 188,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 265,  official: 38,  infectious: 265,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 321,  official: 82,  infectious: 321,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 382,  official: 128,  infectious: 382,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  7:  real: 503,  official: 188,  infectious: 503,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  8:  real: 614,  official: 265,  infectious: 614,  died: 2,  dead: 3

Mar  9:  real: 804,  official: 321,  infectious: 804,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 10:  real: 959,  official: 382,  infectious: 959,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar 11:  real: 1,135,  official: 503,  infectious: 1,135,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Mar 12:  real: 1,413,  official: 614,  infectious: 1,413,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 13:  real: 1,705,  official: 804,  infectious: 1,705,  died: 5,  dead: 10

Mar 14:  real: 2,051,  official: 959,  infectious: 2,051,  died: 2,  dead: 12

Mar 15:  real: 2,460,  official: 1,135,  infectious: 2,460,  died: 8,  dead: 20

Mar 16:  real: 2,994,  official: 1,413,  infectious: 2,994,  died: 4,  dead: 24

Mar 17:  real: 3,631,  official: 1,705,  infectious: 3,631,  died: 19,  dead: 43

Mar 18:  real: 4,204,  official: 2,051,  infectious: 4,204,  died: 15,  dead: 58

Mar 19:  real: 4,749,  official: 2,460,  infectious: 4,749,  died: 18,  dead: 76

Mar 20:  real: 5,560,  official: 2,994,  infectious: 5,560,  died: 30,  dead: 106

Mar 21:  real: 6,412,  official: 3,631,  infectious: 6,412,  died: 30,  dead: 136

Mar 22:  real: 7,431,  official: 4,204,  infectious: 7,431,  died: 43,  dead: 179

Mar 23:  real: 8,603,  official: 4,749,  infectious: 8,603,  died: 34,  dead: 213

Mar 24:  real: 9,762,  official: 5,560,  infectious: 9,762,  died: 63,  dead: 276

Mar 25:  real: 10,866,  official: 6,412,  infectious: 10,866,  died: 80,  dead: 356

Mar 26:  real: 11,750,  official: 7,431,  infectious: 11,750,  died: 78,  dead: 434

Mar 27:  real: 12,595,  official: 8,603,  infectious: 12,595,  died: 112,  dead: 546

Mar 28:  real: 13,614,  official: 9,762,  infectious: 13,614,  died: 93,  dead: 639

Mar 29:  real: 14,697,  official: 10,866,  infectious: 14,697,  died: 132,  dead: 771

Mar 30:  real: 15,723,  official: 11,750,  infectious: 15,723,  died: 93,  dead: 864

Mar 31:  real: 16,627,  official: 12,595,  infectious: 16,627,  died: 175,  dead: 1,039

Apr  1:  real: 17,851,  official: 13,614,  infectious: 17,851,  died: 134,  dead: 1,173

Apr  2:  real: 18,803,  official: 14,697,  infectious: 18,803,  died: 166,  dead: 1,339

Apr  3:  real: 19,580,  official: 15,723,  infectious: 19,580,  died: 148,  dead: 1,487

Apr  4:  real: 20,549,  official: 16,627,  infectious: 20,549,  died: 164,  dead: 1,651

Apr  5:  real: 21,762,  official: 17,851,  infectious: 21,762,  died: 115,  dead: 1,766

Apr  6:  real: 23,097,  official: 18,803,  infectious: 23,097,  died: 101,  dead: 1,867

Apr  7:  real: 24,413,  official: 19,580,  infectious: 24,413,  died: 234,  dead: 2,101

Apr  8:  real: 25,587,  official: 20,549,  infectious: 25,587,  died: 147,  dead: 2,248

Apr  9:  real: 26,551,  official: 21,762,  infectious: 26,551,  died: 148,  dead: 2,396

Apr 10:  real: 27,419,  official: 23,097,  infectious: 27,419,  died: 115,  dead: 2,511

Apr 11:  real: 28,153,  official: 24,413,  infectious: 28,153,  died: 132,  dead: 2,643

Apr 12:  real: 29,214,  official: 25,587,  infectious: 29,214,  died: 94,  dead: 2,737

Apr 13:  real: 30,449,  official: 26,551,  infectious: 30,449,  died: 86,  dead: 2,823

Apr 14:  real: 31,589,  official: 27,419,  infectious: 31,589,  died: 122,  dead: 2,945

Apr 15:  real: 32,655,  official: 28,153,  infectious: 32,655,  died: 189,  dead: 3,134

Apr 16:  real: 33,405,  official: 29,214,  infectious: 33,405,  died: 181,  dead: 3,315

Apr 17:  real: 34,134,  official: 30,449,  infectious: 34,134,  died: 144,  dead: 3,459

Apr 18:  real: 34,842,  official: 31,589,  infectious: 34,842,  died: 142,  dead: 3,601

Apr 19:  real: 35,729,  official: 32,655,  infectious: 35,729,  died: 83,  dead: 3,684

Apr 20:  real: 36,535,  official: 33,405,  infectious: 36,535,  died: 67,  dead: 3,751

Apr 21:  real: 37,190,  official: 34,134,  infectious: 37,190,  died: 165,  dead: 3,916

Apr 22:  real: 37,845,  official: 34,842,  infectious: 37,845,  died: 138,  dead: 4,054

Apr 23:  real: 38,245,  official: 35,729,  infectious: 38,245,  died: 123,  dead: 4,177

Apr 24:  real: 38,416,  official: 36,535,  infectious: 38,416,  died: 112,  dead: 4,289

Apr 25:  real: 38,802,  official: 37,190,  infectious: 38,802,  died: 120,  dead: 4,409

Apr 26:  real: 39,316,  official: 37,845,  infectious: 39,316,  died: 66,  dead: 4,475

Apr 27:  real: 39,791,  official: 38,245,  infectious: 39,791,  died: 43,  dead: 4,518

Apr 28:  real: 40,236,  official: 38,416,  infectious: 40,236,  died: 48,  dead: 4,566

Apr 29:  real: 40,571,  official: 38,802,  infectious: 40,571,  died: 145,  dead: 4,711

Apr 30:  real: 40,770,  official: 39,316,  infectious: 40,770,  died: 84,  dead: 4,795

May  1:  real: 41,087,  official: 39,791,  infectious: 41,087,  died: 98,  dead: 4,893

May  2:  real: 41,319,  official: 40,236,  infectious: 41,319,  died: 94,  dead: 4,987

May  3:  real: 41,774,  official: 40,571,  infectious: 41,774,  died: 69,  dead: 5,056

May  4:  real: 42,093,  official: 40,770,  infectious: 42,093,  died: 26,  dead: 5,082

May  5:  real: 42,382,  official: 41,087,  infectious: 42,382,  died: 86,  dead: 5,168

May  6:  real: 42,627,  official: 41,319,  infectious: 42,627,  died: 36,  dead: 5,204

May  7:  real: 42,788,  official: 41,774,  infectious: 42,788,  died: 84,  dead: 5,288

May  8:  real: 42,984,  official: 42,093,  infectious: 42,984,  died: 71,  dead: 5,359

May  9:  real: 43,211,  official: 42,382,  infectious: 43,211,  died: 63,  dead: 5,422

May 10:  real: 43,481,  official: 42,627,  infectious: 43,481,  died: 18,  dead: 5,440

May 11:  real: 43,681,  official: 42,788,  infectious: 43,681,  died: 16,  dead: 5,456

May 12:  real: 43,870,  official: 42,984,  infectious: 43,870,  died: 54,  dead: 5,510

May 13:  real: 43,995,  official: 43,211,  infectious: 43,995,  died: 52,  dead: 5,562

May 14:  real: 44,141,  official: 43,481,  infectious: 44,141,  died: 28,  dead: 5,590

May 15:  real: 44,249,  official: 43,681,  infectious: 44,249,  died: 53,  dead: 5,643

May 16:  real: 44,447,  official: 43,870,  infectious: 44,447,  died: 27,  dead: 5,670

May 17:  real: 44,700,  official: 43,995,  infectious: 44,700,  died: 10,  dead: 5,680

May 18:  real: 44,888,  official: 44,141,  infectious: 44,888,  died: 14,  dead: 5,694

May 19:  real: 45,064,  official: 44,249,  infectious: 45,064,  died: 21,  dead: 5,715

May 20:  real: 45,236,  official: 44,447,  infectious: 45,236,  died: 33,  dead: 5,748

May 21:  real: 45,445,  official: 44,700,  infectious: 45,445,  died: 27,  dead: 5,775

May 22:  real: 45,578,  official: 44,888,  infectious: 45,578,  died: 13,  dead: 5,788

May 23:  real: 45,768,  official: 45,064,  infectious: 45,768,  died: 23,  dead: 5,811

May 24:  real: 45,950,  official: 45,236,  infectious: 45,950,  died: 11,  dead: 5,822

May 25:  real: 46,126,  official: 45,445,  infectious: 46,126,  died: 8,  dead: 5,830

May 26:  real: 46,257,  official: 45,578,  infectious: 46,257,  died: 26,  dead: 5,856

May 27:  real: 46,442,  official: 45,768,  infectious: 46,442,  died: 15,  dead: 5,871

May 28:  real: 46,545,  official: 45,950,  infectious: 46,545,  died: 32,  dead: 5,903

May 29:  real: 46,647,  official: 46,126,  infectious: 46,647,  died: 28,  dead: 5,931

May 30:  real: 46,733,  official: 46,257,  infectious: 46,733,  died: 20,  dead: 5,951

May 31:  real: 46,942,  official: 46,442,  infectious: 46,942,  died: 5,  dead: 5,956

Jun  1:  real: 47,152,  official: 46,545,  infectious: 47,152,  died: 6,  dead: 5,962

Jun  2:  real: 47,335,  official: 46,647,  infectious: 47,335,  died: 5,  dead: 5,967

Jun  3:  real: 47,574,  official: 46,733,  infectious: 47,574,  died: 10,  dead: 5,977

Jun  4:  real: 47,739,  official: 46,942,  infectious: 47,739,  died: 13,  dead: 5,990

Jun  5:  real: 47,903,  official: 47,152,  infectious: 47,903,  died: 15,  dead: 6,005

Jun  6:  real: 48,087,  official: 47,335,  infectious: 48,087,  died: 6,  dead: 6,011

Jun  7:  real: 48,251,  official: 47,574,  infectious: 48,251,  died: 2,  dead: 6,013

Jun  8:  real: 48,461,  official: 47,739,  infectious: 48,461,  died: 3,  dead: 6,016

Jun  9:  real: 48,640,  official: 47,903,  infectious: 48,640,  died: 15,  dead: 6,031

Jun 10:  real: 48,783,  official: 48,087,  infectious: 48,783,  died: 11,  dead: 6,042

Jun 11:  real: 48,948,  official: 48,251,  infectious: 48,948,  died: 2,  dead: 6,044

Jun 12:  real: 49,087,  official: 48,461,  infectious: 49,087,  died: 9,  dead: 6,053

Jun 13:  real: 49,204,  official: 48,640,  infectious: 49,204,  died: 4,  dead: 6,057

Jun 14:  real: 49,319,  official: 48,783,  infectious: 49,319,  died: 2,  dead: 6,059

Jun 15:  real: 49,426,  official: 48,948,  infectious: 49,426,  died: 6,  dead: 6,065

Jun 16:  real: 49,502,  official: 49,087,  infectious: 49,502,  died: 5,  dead: 6,070

Jun 17:  real: 49,593,  official: 49,204,  infectious: 49,593,  died: 4,  dead: 6,074

Jun 18:  real: 49,658,  official: 49,319,  infectious: 49,658,  died: 4,  dead: 6,078

Jun 19:  real: 49,722,  official: 49,426,  infectious: 49,722,  died: 3,  dead: 6,081

Jun 20:  real: 49,804,  official: 49,502,  infectious: 49,804,  died: 8,  dead: 6,089

Jun 21:  real: 49,914,  official: 49,593,  infectious: 49,914,  died: 1,  dead: 6,090

Jun 22:  real: 50,005,  official: 49,658,  infectious: 50,005,  died: 0,  dead: 6,090

Jun 23:  real: 50,074,  official: 49,722,  infectious: 50,074,  died: 5,  dead: 6,095

Jun 24:  real: 50,147,  official: 49,804,  infectious: 50,147,  died: 2,  dead: 6,097

Jun 25:  real: 50,223,  official: 49,914,  infectious: 50,223,  died: 3,  dead: 6,100

Jun 26:  real: 50,273,  official: 50,005,  infectious: 50,273,  died: 3,  dead: 6,103

Jun 27:  real: 50,273,  official: 50,074,  infectious: 50,273,  died: 2,  dead: 6,105

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 50,275,  official: 50,147,  infectious: 1,880,  died: 1,  dead: 6,106

Jun 29:  real: 50,276,  official: 50,223,  infectious: 1,748,  died: 1,  dead: 6,107

Jun 30:  real: 50,277,  official: 50,273,  infectious: 1,570,  died: 1,  dead: 6,108

Jul  1:  real: 50,278,  official: 50,273,  infectious: 1,412,  died: 0,  dead: 6,108

Jul  2:  real: 50,279,  official: 50,275,  infectious: 1,279,  died: 0,  dead: 6,108

Jul  3:  real: 50,280,  official: 50,276,  infectious: 1,133,  died: 0,  dead: 6,108

Jul  4:  real: 50,281,  official: 50,277,  infectious: 1,010,  died: 0,  dead: 6,108

Jul  5:  real: 50,282,  official: 50,278,  infectious: 904,  died: 0,  dead: 6,108

Jul  6:  real: 50,283,  official: 50,279,  infectious: 799,  died: 0,  dead: 6,108

Jul  7:  real: 50,284,  official: 50,280,  infectious: 705,  died: 1,  dead: 6,109

Jul  8:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,281,  infectious: 643,  died: 1,  dead: 6,110

Jul  9:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,282,  infectious: 570,  died: 1,  dead: 6,111

Jul 10:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,283,  infectious: 517,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 11:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,284,  infectious: 464,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 12:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 398,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 13:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 308,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 14:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 234,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 15:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 177,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 16:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 116,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 17:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 18:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 19:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 20:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 21:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 22:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 23:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 24:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 25:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 26:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 27:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 28:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 29:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 30:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Jul 31:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  1:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  2:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  3:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  4:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  5:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  6:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  7:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  8:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug  9:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 10:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 11:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 12:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 13:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 14:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 15:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 16:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 17:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 18:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 19:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 20:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 21:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 22:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 23:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 24:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 25:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 26:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 27:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 28:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 29:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 30:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Aug 31:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  1:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  2:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  3:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  4:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  5:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  6:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  7:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  8:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep  9:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 10:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 11:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 12:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 13:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 14:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 15:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 16:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 17:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 18:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 19:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 20:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 21:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 22:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 23:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 24:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 25:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 26:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 27:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 28:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 29:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Sep 30:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  1:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  2:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  3:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  4:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  5:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  6:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  7:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  8:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct  9:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 10:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 11:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 12:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 13:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 14:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 15:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 16:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 17:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 18:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 19:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 20:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 21:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 22:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 23:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 24:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 25:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 26:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 27:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 28:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 29:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 30:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Oct 31:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  1:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  2:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  3:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  4:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  5:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  6:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  7:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  8:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov  9:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 10:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 11:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 12:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 13:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 14:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 15:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 16:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 17:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 18:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 19:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 20:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 21:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 22:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 23:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 24:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 25:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 26:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 27:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 28:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 29:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Nov 30:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  1:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  2:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  3:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  4:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  5:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  6:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  7:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  8:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec  9:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 10:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 11:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 12:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 13:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 14:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 15:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 16:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 17:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 18:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 19:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 20:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 21:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 22:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 23:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 24:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 25:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 26:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 27:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 28:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 29:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 30:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

Dec 31:  real: 50,285,  official: 50,285,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 6,111

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      6,111:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      6,111:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.08%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0008
Official uninf: 12,949,727 / Adult Pop.: 13,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.61%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0039
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.08%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0008