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COVID-19 Forecast for Venezuela, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
51 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Venezuela HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 51 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Venezuela run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Venezuela are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       100 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          9:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 26.
        120:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        178:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        298:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Venezuela COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.046, at 104.60% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 2,  official: 0,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 2,  official: 0,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 17,  official: 0,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 17,  official: 0,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 33,  official: 2,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 36,  official: 2,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 42,  official: 17,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 65,  official: 17,  infectious: 65,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 70,  official: 33,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 70,  official: 36,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 84,  official: 42,  infectious: 84,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 84,  official: 65,  infectious: 84,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 106,  official: 70,  infectious: 106,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 107,  official: 70,  infectious: 107,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 23:  real: 113,  official: 84,  infectious: 113,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 24:  real: 119,  official: 84,  infectious: 119,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 25:  real: 119,  official: 106,  infectious: 119,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 26:  real: 135,  official: 107,  infectious: 135,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 27:  real: 135,  official: 113,  infectious: 135,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 28:  real: 144,  official: 119,  infectious: 144,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 29:  real: 146,  official: 119,  infectious: 146,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 30:  real: 153,  official: 135,  infectious: 153,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 31:  real: 155,  official: 135,  infectious: 155,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr  1:  real: 159,  official: 144,  infectious: 159,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Apr  2:  real: 165,  official: 146,  infectious: 165,  died: 2,  dead: 5

Apr  3:  real: 166,  official: 153,  infectious: 166,  died: 2,  dead: 7

Apr  4:  real: 167,  official: 155,  infectious: 167,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr  5:  real: 171,  official: 159,  infectious: 171,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr  6:  real: 175,  official: 165,  infectious: 175,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr  7:  real: 175,  official: 166,  infectious: 175,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Apr  8:  real: 181,  official: 167,  infectious: 181,  died: 2,  dead: 9

Apr  9:  real: 189,  official: 171,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 10:  real: 189,  official: 175,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 11:  real: 197,  official: 175,  infectious: 197,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 12:  real: 204,  official: 181,  infectious: 204,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 13:  real: 204,  official: 189,  infectious: 204,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 14:  real: 227,  official: 189,  infectious: 227,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 15:  real: 256,  official: 197,  infectious: 256,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 16:  real: 285,  official: 204,  infectious: 285,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 17:  real: 288,  official: 204,  infectious: 288,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 18:  real: 298,  official: 227,  infectious: 298,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 19:  real: 298,  official: 256,  infectious: 298,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Apr 20:  real: 318,  official: 285,  infectious: 318,  died: 1,  dead: 10

Apr 21:  real: 323,  official: 288,  infectious: 323,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 22:  real: 325,  official: 298,  infectious: 325,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 23:  real: 329,  official: 298,  infectious: 329,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 24:  real: 329,  official: 318,  infectious: 329,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 25:  real: 331,  official: 323,  infectious: 331,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 26:  real: 333,  official: 325,  infectious: 333,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 27:  real: 335,  official: 329,  infectious: 335,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 28:  real: 345,  official: 329,  infectious: 345,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 29:  real: 357,  official: 331,  infectious: 357,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Apr 30:  real: 357,  official: 333,  infectious: 357,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  1:  real: 361,  official: 335,  infectious: 361,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  2:  real: 379,  official: 345,  infectious: 379,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  3:  real: 381,  official: 357,  infectious: 381,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  4:  real: 388,  official: 357,  infectious: 388,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  5:  real: 402,  official: 361,  infectious: 402,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  6:  real: 414,  official: 379,  infectious: 414,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  7:  real: 422,  official: 381,  infectious: 422,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  8:  real: 423,  official: 388,  infectious: 423,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May  9:  real: 440,  official: 402,  infectious: 440,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 10:  real: 455,  official: 414,  infectious: 455,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 11:  real: 459,  official: 422,  infectious: 459,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 12:  real: 504,  official: 423,  infectious: 504,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 13:  real: 541,  official: 440,  infectious: 541,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 14:  real: 618,  official: 455,  infectious: 618,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 15:  real: 618,  official: 459,  infectious: 618,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 16:  real: 824,  official: 504,  infectious: 824,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 17:  real: 882,  official: 541,  infectious: 882,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 18:  real: 944,  official: 618,  infectious: 944,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 19:  real: 1,010,  official: 618,  infectious: 1,010,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 20:  real: 1,121,  official: 824,  infectious: 1,121,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 21:  real: 1,177,  official: 882,  infectious: 1,177,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 22:  real: 1,211,  official: 944,  infectious: 1,211,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 23:  real: 1,245,  official: 1,010,  infectious: 1,245,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 24:  real: 1,325,  official: 1,121,  infectious: 1,325,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 25:  real: 1,370,  official: 1,177,  infectious: 1,370,  died: 0,  dead: 10

May 26:  real: 1,459,  official: 1,211,  infectious: 1,459,  died: 1,  dead: 11

May 27:  real: 1,510,  official: 1,245,  infectious: 1,510,  died: 0,  dead: 11

May 28:  real: 1,662,  official: 1,325,  infectious: 1,662,  died: 0,  dead: 11

May 29:  real: 1,819,  official: 1,370,  infectious: 1,819,  died: 3,  dead: 14

May 30:  real: 1,952,  official: 1,459,  infectious: 1,952,  died: 0,  dead: 14

May 31:  real: 2,087,  official: 1,510,  infectious: 2,087,  died: 0,  dead: 14

Jun  1:  real: 2,145,  official: 1,662,  infectious: 2,145,  died: 3,  dead: 17

Jun  2:  real: 2,316,  official: 1,819,  infectious: 2,316,  died: 1,  dead: 18

Jun  3:  real: 2,377,  official: 1,952,  infectious: 2,377,  died: 2,  dead: 20

Jun  4:  real: 2,473,  official: 2,087,  infectious: 2,473,  died: 0,  dead: 20

Jun  5:  real: 2,632,  official: 2,145,  infectious: 2,632,  died: 0,  dead: 20

Jun  6:  real: 2,738,  official: 2,316,  infectious: 2,738,  died: 2,  dead: 22

Jun  7:  real: 2,814,  official: 2,377,  infectious: 2,814,  died: 0,  dead: 22

Jun  8:  real: 2,879,  official: 2,473,  infectious: 2,879,  died: 0,  dead: 22

Jun  9:  real: 2,904,  official: 2,632,  infectious: 2,904,  died: 1,  dead: 23

Jun 10:  real: 2,904,  official: 2,738,  infectious: 2,904,  died: 0,  dead: 23

Jun 11:  real: 3,062,  official: 2,814,  infectious: 3,062,  died: 0,  dead: 23

Jun 12:  real: 3,150,  official: 2,879,  infectious: 3,150,  died: 0,  dead: 23

Jun 13:  real: 3,386,  official: 2,904,  infectious: 3,386,  died: 1,  dead: 24

Jun 14:  real: 3,483,  official: 2,904,  infectious: 3,483,  died: 0,  dead: 24

Jun 15:  real: 3,591,  official: 3,062,  infectious: 3,591,  died: 2,  dead: 26

Jun 16:  real: 3,789,  official: 3,150,  infectious: 3,789,  died: 1,  dead: 27

Jun 17:  real: 3,917,  official: 3,386,  infectious: 3,917,  died: 1,  dead: 28

Jun 18:  real: 4,048,  official: 3,483,  infectious: 4,048,  died: 0,  dead: 28

Jun 19:  real: 4,187,  official: 3,591,  infectious: 4,187,  died: 2,  dead: 30

Jun 20:  real: 4,366,  official: 3,789,  infectious: 4,366,  died: 3,  dead: 33

Jun 21:  real: 4,563,  official: 3,917,  infectious: 4,563,  died: 0,  dead: 33

Jun 22:  real: 4,779,  official: 4,048,  infectious: 4,779,  died: 2,  dead: 35

Jun 23:  real: 5,130,  official: 4,187,  infectious: 5,130,  died: 0,  dead: 35

Jun 24:  real: 5,297,  official: 4,366,  infectious: 5,297,  died: 3,  dead: 38

Jun 25:  real: 5,530,  official: 4,563,  infectious: 5,530,  died: 1,  dead: 39

Jun 26:  real: 5,832,  official: 4,779,  infectious: 5,832,  died: 2,  dead: 41

Jun 27:  real: 6,062,  official: 5,130,  infectious: 6,062,  died: 1,  dead: 42

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 6,191,  official: 5,297,  infectious: 2,801,  died: 2,  dead: 44


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 6,327,  official: 5,530,  infectious: 2,963,  died: 2,  dead: 46

Jun 30:  real: 6,466,  official: 5,832,  infectious: 3,018,  died: 2,  dead: 48

Jul  1:  real: 6,609,  official: 6,062,  infectious: 3,106,  died: 4,  dead: 52

Jul  2:  real: 6,757,  official: 6,191,  infectious: 3,216,  died: 2,  dead: 54

Jul  3:  real: 6,904,  official: 6,327,  infectious: 3,193,  died: 6,  dead: 60

Jul  4:  real: 7,052,  official: 6,466,  infectious: 3,210,  died: 8,  dead: 68

Jul  5:  real: 7,196,  official: 6,609,  infectious: 3,136,  died: 7,  dead: 75

Jul  6:  real: 7,342,  official: 6,757,  infectious: 3,164,  died: 5,  dead: 80

Jul  7:  real: 7,488,  official: 6,904,  infectious: 3,173,  died: 1,  dead: 81

Jul  8:  real: 7,632,  official: 7,052,  infectious: 3,123,  died: 2,  dead: 83

Jul  9:  real: 7,776,  official: 7,196,  infectious: 3,140,  died: 5,  dead: 88

Jul 10:  real: 7,921,  official: 7,342,  infectious: 3,154,  died: 4,  dead: 92

Jul 11:  real: 8,066,  official: 7,488,  infectious: 3,156,  died: 6,  dead: 98

Jul 12:  real: 8,210,  official: 7,632,  infectious: 3,126,  died: 5,  dead: 103

Jul 13:  real: 8,352,  official: 7,776,  infectious: 3,081,  died: 7,  dead: 110

Jul 14:  real: 8,491,  official: 7,921,  infectious: 3,023,  died: 4,  dead: 114

Jul 15:  real: 8,622,  official: 8,066,  infectious: 2,856,  died: 2,  dead: 116

Jul 16:  real: 8,752,  official: 8,210,  infectious: 2,832,  died: 4,  dead: 120

Jul 17:  real: 8,878,  official: 8,352,  infectious: 2,748,  died: 3,  dead: 123

Jul 18:  real: 8,998,  official: 8,491,  infectious: 2,606,  died: 7,  dead: 130

Jul 19:  real: 9,114,  official: 8,622,  infectious: 2,516,  died: 5,  dead: 135

Jul 20:  real: 9,229,  official: 8,752,  infectious: 2,502,  died: 7,  dead: 142

Jul 21:  real: 9,343,  official: 8,878,  infectious: 2,479,  died: 7,  dead: 149

Jul 22:  real: 9,456,  official: 8,998,  infectious: 2,457,  died: 2,  dead: 151

Jul 23:  real: 9,568,  official: 9,114,  infectious: 2,431,  died: 5,  dead: 156

Jul 24:  real: 9,678,  official: 9,229,  infectious: 2,398,  died: 5,  dead: 161

Jul 25:  real: 9,787,  official: 9,343,  infectious: 2,362,  died: 5,  dead: 166


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 26:  real: 9,894,  official: 9,456,  infectious: 2,325,  died: 9,  dead: 175

Jul 27:  real: 9,999,  official: 9,568,  infectious: 2,288,  died: 7,  dead: 182


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jul 28:  real: 10,103,  official: 9,678,  infectious: 2,252,  died: 2,  dead: 184


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 29:  real: 10,205,  official: 9,787,  infectious: 2,215,  died: 4,  dead: 188


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jul 30:  real: 10,305,  official: 9,894,  infectious: 2,181,  died: 0,  dead: 188

Jul 31:  real: 10,404,  official: 9,999,  infectious: 2,146,  died: 1,  dead: 189


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Aug  1:  real: 10,501,  official: 10,103,  infectious: 2,108,  died: 3,  dead: 192


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Aug  2:  real: 10,596,  official: 10,205,  infectious: 2,069,  died: 1,  dead: 193


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Aug  3:  real: 10,689,  official: 10,305,  infectious: 2,030,  died: 4,  dead: 197

Aug  4:  real: 10,780,  official: 10,404,  infectious: 1,989,  died: 4,  dead: 201

Aug  5:  real: 10,870,  official: 10,501,  infectious: 1,949,  died: 2,  dead: 203

Aug  6:  real: 10,958,  official: 10,596,  infectious: 1,912,  died: 4,  dead: 207

Aug  7:  real: 11,044,  official: 10,689,  infectious: 1,877,  died: 2,  dead: 209

Aug  8:  real: 11,129,  official: 10,780,  infectious: 1,843,  died: 2,  dead: 211

Aug  9:  real: 11,212,  official: 10,870,  infectious: 1,812,  died: 2,  dead: 213

Aug 10:  real: 11,294,  official: 10,958,  infectious: 1,784,  died: 1,  dead: 214


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Aug 11:  real: 11,375,  official: 11,044,  infectious: 1,756,  died: 2,  dead: 216

Aug 12:  real: 11,455,  official: 11,129,  infectious: 1,729,  died: 2,  dead: 218

Aug 13:  real: 11,533,  official: 11,212,  infectious: 1,702,  died: 2,  dead: 220


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Aug 14:  real: 11,610,  official: 11,294,  infectious: 1,676,  died: 2,  dead: 222

Aug 15:  real: 11,686,  official: 11,375,  infectious: 1,646,  died: 4,  dead: 226

Aug 16:  real: 11,760,  official: 11,455,  infectious: 1,616,  died: 4,  dead: 230


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Aug 17:  real: 11,833,  official: 11,533,  infectious: 1,586,  died: 4,  dead: 234

Aug 18:  real: 11,905,  official: 11,610,  infectious: 1,560,  died: 2,  dead: 236

Aug 19:  real: 11,976,  official: 11,686,  infectious: 1,534,  died: 1,  dead: 237

Aug 20:  real: 12,045,  official: 11,760,  infectious: 1,510,  died: 1,  dead: 238

Aug 21:  real: 12,113,  official: 11,833,  infectious: 1,485,  died: 2,  dead: 240


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Aug 22:  real: 12,180,  official: 11,905,  infectious: 1,459,  died: 3,  dead: 243

Aug 23:  real: 12,246,  official: 11,976,  infectious: 1,432,  died: 4,  dead: 247

Aug 24:  real: 12,311,  official: 12,045,  infectious: 1,406,  died: 4,  dead: 251

Aug 25:  real: 12,374,  official: 12,113,  infectious: 1,380,  died: 3,  dead: 254

Aug 26:  real: 12,436,  official: 12,180,  infectious: 1,357,  died: 1,  dead: 255

Aug 27:  real: 12,497,  official: 12,246,  infectious: 1,333,  died: 1,  dead: 256

Aug 28:  real: 12,557,  official: 12,311,  infectious: 1,311,  died: 1,  dead: 257

Aug 29:  real: 12,616,  official: 12,374,  infectious: 1,289,  died: 1,  dead: 258

Aug 30:  real: 12,674,  official: 12,436,  infectious: 1,267,  died: 1,  dead: 259

Aug 31:  real: 12,731,  official: 12,497,  infectious: 1,246,  died: 1,  dead: 260

Sep  1:  real: 12,787,  official: 12,557,  infectious: 1,225,  died: 1,  dead: 261

Sep  2:  real: 12,842,  official: 12,616,  infectious: 1,205,  died: 1,  dead: 262

Sep  3:  real: 12,896,  official: 12,674,  infectious: 1,184,  died: 1,  dead: 263

Sep  4:  real: 12,949,  official: 12,731,  infectious: 1,163,  died: 1,  dead: 264

Sep  5:  real: 13,002,  official: 12,787,  infectious: 1,142,  died: 1,  dead: 265

Sep  6:  real: 13,054,  official: 12,842,  infectious: 1,121,  died: 1,  dead: 266

Sep  7:  real: 13,105,  official: 12,896,  infectious: 1,102,  died: 1,  dead: 267

Sep  8:  real: 13,155,  official: 12,949,  infectious: 1,083,  died: 1,  dead: 268

Sep  9:  real: 13,204,  official: 13,002,  infectious: 1,065,  died: 1,  dead: 269

Sep 10:  real: 13,252,  official: 13,054,  infectious: 1,047,  died: 1,  dead: 270

Sep 11:  real: 13,299,  official: 13,105,  infectious: 1,030,  died: 1,  dead: 271

Sep 12:  real: 13,346,  official: 13,155,  infectious: 1,013,  died: 1,  dead: 272

Sep 13:  real: 13,392,  official: 13,204,  infectious: 995,  died: 1,  dead: 273

Sep 14:  real: 13,437,  official: 13,252,  infectious: 978,  died: 1,  dead: 274

Sep 15:  real: 13,481,  official: 13,299,  infectious: 962,  died: 1,  dead: 275

Sep 16:  real: 13,525,  official: 13,346,  infectious: 947,  died: 1,  dead: 276

Sep 17:  real: 13,568,  official: 13,392,  infectious: 932,  died: 1,  dead: 277

Sep 18:  real: 13,610,  official: 13,437,  infectious: 918,  died: 1,  dead: 278

Sep 19:  real: 13,652,  official: 13,481,  infectious: 903,  died: 1,  dead: 279

Sep 20:  real: 13,693,  official: 13,525,  infectious: 888,  died: 1,  dead: 280

Sep 21:  real: 13,733,  official: 13,568,  infectious: 873,  died: 1,  dead: 281

Sep 22:  real: 13,772,  official: 13,610,  infectious: 858,  died: 1,  dead: 282

Sep 23:  real: 13,811,  official: 13,652,  infectious: 843,  died: 1,  dead: 283

Sep 24:  real: 13,849,  official: 13,693,  infectious: 829,  died: 1,  dead: 284

Sep 25:  real: 13,887,  official: 13,733,  infectious: 816,  died: 1,  dead: 285

Sep 26:  real: 13,924,  official: 13,772,  infectious: 802,  died: 1,  dead: 286

Sep 27:  real: 13,960,  official: 13,811,  infectious: 788,  died: 1,  dead: 287

Sep 28:  real: 13,996,  official: 13,849,  infectious: 774,  died: 1,  dead: 288

Sep 29:  real: 14,031,  official: 13,887,  infectious: 760,  died: 1,  dead: 289

Sep 30:  real: 14,065,  official: 13,924,  infectious: 747,  died: 1,  dead: 290

Oct  1:  real: 14,099,  official: 13,960,  infectious: 734,  died: 1,  dead: 291

Oct  2:  real: 14,132,  official: 13,996,  infectious: 723,  died: 1,  dead: 292

Oct  3:  real: 14,165,  official: 14,031,  infectious: 713,  died: 1,  dead: 293

Oct  4:  real: 14,197,  official: 14,065,  infectious: 702,  died: 1,  dead: 294

Oct  5:  real: 14,229,  official: 14,099,  infectious: 691,  died: 1,  dead: 295

Oct  6:  real: 14,260,  official: 14,132,  infectious: 680,  died: 1,  dead: 296

Oct  7:  real: 14,291,  official: 14,165,  infectious: 670,  died: 1,  dead: 297

Oct  8:  real: 14,321,  official: 14,197,  infectious: 659,  died: 1,  dead: 298

Oct  9:  real: 14,351,  official: 14,229,  infectious: 649,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 10:  real: 14,380,  official: 14,260,  infectious: 639,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 11:  real: 14,409,  official: 14,291,  infectious: 629,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 12:  real: 14,437,  official: 14,321,  infectious: 619,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 13:  real: 14,465,  official: 14,351,  infectious: 610,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 14:  real: 14,493,  official: 14,380,  infectious: 600,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 15:  real: 14,520,  official: 14,409,  infectious: 590,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 16:  real: 14,547,  official: 14,437,  infectious: 581,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 17:  real: 14,573,  official: 14,465,  infectious: 571,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 18:  real: 14,599,  official: 14,493,  infectious: 562,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 19:  real: 14,624,  official: 14,520,  infectious: 553,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 20:  real: 14,649,  official: 14,547,  infectious: 544,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 21:  real: 14,674,  official: 14,573,  infectious: 535,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 22:  real: 14,698,  official: 14,599,  infectious: 527,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 23:  real: 14,722,  official: 14,624,  infectious: 519,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 24:  real: 14,745,  official: 14,649,  infectious: 510,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 25:  real: 14,768,  official: 14,674,  infectious: 501,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 26:  real: 14,791,  official: 14,698,  infectious: 492,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 27:  real: 14,813,  official: 14,722,  infectious: 483,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 28:  real: 14,835,  official: 14,745,  infectious: 476,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 29:  real: 14,857,  official: 14,768,  infectious: 468,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 30:  real: 14,878,  official: 14,791,  infectious: 461,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Oct 31:  real: 14,899,  official: 14,813,  infectious: 454,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  1:  real: 14,920,  official: 14,835,  infectious: 447,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  2:  real: 14,940,  official: 14,857,  infectious: 440,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  3:  real: 14,960,  official: 14,878,  infectious: 434,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  4:  real: 14,980,  official: 14,899,  infectious: 427,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  5:  real: 14,999,  official: 14,920,  infectious: 420,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  6:  real: 15,018,  official: 14,940,  infectious: 414,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  7:  real: 15,037,  official: 14,960,  infectious: 407,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  8:  real: 15,055,  official: 14,980,  infectious: 400,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov  9:  real: 15,073,  official: 14,999,  infectious: 393,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 10:  real: 15,091,  official: 15,018,  infectious: 386,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 11:  real: 15,108,  official: 15,037,  infectious: 379,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 12:  real: 15,125,  official: 15,055,  infectious: 372,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 13:  real: 15,142,  official: 15,073,  infectious: 366,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 14:  real: 15,159,  official: 15,091,  infectious: 360,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 15:  real: 15,175,  official: 15,108,  infectious: 356,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 16:  real: 15,191,  official: 15,125,  infectious: 352,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 17:  real: 15,207,  official: 15,142,  infectious: 347,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 18:  real: 15,223,  official: 15,159,  infectious: 343,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 19:  real: 15,239,  official: 15,175,  infectious: 339,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 20:  real: 15,254,  official: 15,191,  infectious: 335,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 21:  real: 15,269,  official: 15,207,  infectious: 332,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 22:  real: 15,284,  official: 15,223,  infectious: 328,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 23:  real: 15,299,  official: 15,239,  infectious: 324,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 24:  real: 15,314,  official: 15,254,  infectious: 320,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 25:  real: 15,329,  official: 15,269,  infectious: 316,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 26:  real: 15,343,  official: 15,284,  infectious: 312,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 27:  real: 15,357,  official: 15,299,  infectious: 308,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 28:  real: 15,371,  official: 15,314,  infectious: 303,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 29:  real: 15,385,  official: 15,329,  infectious: 298,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Nov 30:  real: 15,399,  official: 15,343,  infectious: 294,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  1:  real: 15,412,  official: 15,357,  infectious: 290,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  2:  real: 15,425,  official: 15,371,  infectious: 286,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  3:  real: 15,438,  official: 15,385,  infectious: 282,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  4:  real: 15,451,  official: 15,399,  infectious: 278,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  5:  real: 15,464,  official: 15,412,  infectious: 274,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  6:  real: 15,476,  official: 15,425,  infectious: 270,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  7:  real: 15,488,  official: 15,438,  infectious: 267,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  8:  real: 15,500,  official: 15,451,  infectious: 263,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec  9:  real: 15,512,  official: 15,464,  infectious: 259,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 10:  real: 15,524,  official: 15,476,  infectious: 255,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 11:  real: 15,536,  official: 15,488,  infectious: 251,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 12:  real: 15,547,  official: 15,500,  infectious: 249,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 13:  real: 15,558,  official: 15,512,  infectious: 247,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 14:  real: 15,569,  official: 15,524,  infectious: 244,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 15:  real: 15,580,  official: 15,536,  infectious: 241,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 16:  real: 15,591,  official: 15,547,  infectious: 238,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 17:  real: 15,602,  official: 15,558,  infectious: 235,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 18:  real: 15,613,  official: 15,569,  infectious: 233,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 19:  real: 15,624,  official: 15,580,  infectious: 231,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 20:  real: 15,635,  official: 15,591,  infectious: 229,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 21:  real: 15,645,  official: 15,602,  infectious: 227,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 22:  real: 15,655,  official: 15,613,  infectious: 225,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 23:  real: 15,665,  official: 15,624,  infectious: 222,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 24:  real: 15,675,  official: 15,635,  infectious: 219,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 25:  real: 15,685,  official: 15,645,  infectious: 216,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 26:  real: 15,695,  official: 15,655,  infectious: 213,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 27:  real: 15,705,  official: 15,665,  infectious: 210,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 28:  real: 15,715,  official: 15,675,  infectious: 208,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 29:  real: 15,724,  official: 15,685,  infectious: 206,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 30:  real: 15,733,  official: 15,695,  infectious: 204,  died: 0,  dead: 298

Dec 31:  real: 15,742,  official: 15,705,  infectious: 201,  died: 0,  dead: 298

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       100 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          9:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 26.
        120:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        178:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        298:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 104.60%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0460
Official uninf: 18,993,938 / Adult Pop.: 19,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.97%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0003
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 104.60%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0460