COVID-19 Forecast for US, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
132 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL US HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 132 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in US run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in US are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        716:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
    143,931:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
    143,931:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .

US COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.018, at 101.76% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 221,  official: 75,  infectious: 221,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  2:  real: 319,  official: 100,  infectious: 319,  died: 5,  dead: 6

Mar  3:  real: 435,  official: 124,  infectious: 435,  died: 3,  dead: 9

Mar  4:  real: 541,  official: 158,  infectious: 541,  died: 2,  dead: 11

Mar  5:  real: 704,  official: 221,  infectious: 704,  died: 1,  dead: 12

Mar  6:  real: 994,  official: 319,  infectious: 994,  died: 3,  dead: 15

Mar  7:  real: 1,301,  official: 435,  infectious: 1,301,  died: 4,  dead: 19

Mar  8:  real: 1,631,  official: 541,  infectious: 1,631,  died: 3,  dead: 22

Mar  9:  real: 2,185,  official: 704,  infectious: 2,185,  died: 4,  dead: 26

Mar 10:  real: 2,774,  official: 994,  infectious: 2,774,  died: 4,  dead: 30

Mar 11:  real: 3,622,  official: 1,301,  infectious: 3,622,  died: 8,  dead: 38

Mar 12:  real: 4,611,  official: 1,631,  infectious: 4,611,  died: 3,  dead: 41

Mar 13:  real: 6,366,  official: 2,185,  infectious: 6,366,  died: 7,  dead: 48

Mar 14:  real: 9,333,  official: 2,774,  infectious: 9,333,  died: 10,  dead: 58

Mar 15:  real: 13,935,  official: 3,622,  infectious: 13,935,  died: 15,  dead: 73

Mar 16:  real: 19,608,  official: 4,611,  infectious: 19,608,  died: 22,  dead: 95

Mar 17:  real: 24,498,  official: 6,366,  infectious: 24,498,  died: 26,  dead: 121

Mar 18:  real: 33,946,  official: 9,333,  infectious: 33,946,  died: 50,  dead: 171

Mar 19:  real: 44,325,  official: 13,935,  infectious: 44,325,  died: 69,  dead: 240

Mar 20:  real: 55,579,  official: 19,608,  infectious: 55,579,  died: 70,  dead: 310

Mar 21:  real: 69,136,  official: 24,498,  infectious: 69,136,  died: 66,  dead: 376

Mar 22:  real: 86,668,  official: 33,946,  infectious: 86,668,  died: 136,  dead: 512

Mar 23:  real: 105,584,  official: 44,325,  infectious: 105,584,  died: 181,  dead: 693

Mar 24:  real: 125,250,  official: 55,579,  infectious: 125,250,  died: 270,  dead: 963

Mar 25:  real: 145,526,  official: 69,136,  infectious: 145,526,  died: 307,  dead: 1,270

Mar 26:  real: 168,822,  official: 86,668,  infectious: 168,822,  died: 358,  dead: 1,628

Mar 27:  real: 194,114,  official: 105,584,  infectious: 194,114,  died: 501,  dead: 2,129

Mar 28:  real: 221,225,  official: 125,250,  infectious: 221,225,  died: 650,  dead: 2,779

Mar 29:  real: 251,796,  official: 145,526,  infectious: 251,796,  died: 501,  dead: 3,280

Mar 30:  real: 284,759,  official: 168,822,  infectious: 284,759,  died: 822,  dead: 4,102

Mar 31:  real: 319,444,  official: 194,114,  infectious: 319,444,  died: 1,099,  dead: 5,201

Apr  1:  real: 345,345,  official: 221,225,  infectious: 345,345,  died: 1,259,  dead: 6,460

Apr  2:  real: 377,095,  official: 251,796,  infectious: 377,095,  died: 1,211,  dead: 7,671

Apr  3:  real: 411,166,  official: 284,759,  infectious: 411,166,  died: 1,282,  dead: 8,953

Apr  4:  real: 443,680,  official: 319,444,  infectious: 443,680,  died: 1,577,  dead: 10,530

Apr  5:  real: 477,766,  official: 345,345,  infectious: 477,766,  died: 1,423,  dead: 11,953

Apr  6:  real: 512,010,  official: 377,095,  infectious: 512,010,  died: 1,523,  dead: 13,476

Apr  7:  real: 542,498,  official: 411,166,  infectious: 542,498,  died: 2,267,  dead: 15,743

Apr  8:  real: 570,358,  official: 443,680,  infectious: 570,358,  died: 2,210,  dead: 17,953

Apr  9:  real: 597,452,  official: 477,766,  infectious: 597,452,  died: 2,146,  dead: 20,099

Apr 10:  real: 624,893,  official: 512,010,  infectious: 624,893,  died: 2,280,  dead: 22,379

Apr 11:  real: 655,569,  official: 542,498,  infectious: 655,569,  died: 2,066,  dead: 24,445

Apr 12:  real: 685,712,  official: 570,358,  infectious: 685,712,  died: 1,756,  dead: 26,201

Apr 13:  real: 718,208,  official: 597,452,  infectious: 718,208,  died: 1,746,  dead: 27,947

Apr 14:  real: 747,401,  official: 624,893,  infectious: 747,401,  died: 2,626,  dead: 30,573

Apr 15:  real: 773,598,  official: 655,569,  infectious: 773,598,  died: 2,690,  dead: 33,263

Apr 16:  real: 801,820,  official: 685,712,  infectious: 801,820,  died: 2,254,  dead: 35,517

Apr 17:  real: 828,058,  official: 718,208,  infectious: 828,058,  died: 2,596,  dead: 38,113

Apr 18:  real: 858,363,  official: 747,401,  infectious: 858,363,  died: 1,921,  dead: 40,034

Apr 19:  real: 890,436,  official: 773,598,  infectious: 890,436,  died: 1,594,  dead: 41,628

Apr 20:  real: 929,559,  official: 801,820,  infectious: 929,559,  died: 1,981,  dead: 43,609

Apr 21:  real: 965,082,  official: 828,058,  infectious: 965,082,  died: 2,749,  dead: 46,358

Apr 22:  real: 991,670,  official: 858,363,  infectious: 991,670,  died: 2,409,  dead: 48,767

Apr 23:  real: 1,014,937,  official: 890,436,  infectious: 1,014,937,  died: 2,402,  dead: 51,169

Apr 24:  real: 1,040,510,  official: 929,559,  infectious: 1,040,510,  died: 1,992,  dead: 53,161

Apr 25:  real: 1,069,105,  official: 965,082,  infectious: 1,069,105,  died: 2,110,  dead: 55,271

Apr 26:  real: 1,100,105,  official: 991,670,  infectious: 1,100,105,  died: 1,170,  dead: 56,441

Apr 27:  real: 1,136,266,  official: 1,014,937,  infectious: 1,136,266,  died: 1,403,  dead: 57,844

Apr 28:  real: 1,166,135,  official: 1,040,510,  infectious: 1,166,135,  died: 2,537,  dead: 60,381

Apr 29:  real: 1,193,573,  official: 1,069,105,  infectious: 1,193,573,  died: 2,442,  dead: 62,823

Apr 30:  real: 1,218,332,  official: 1,100,105,  infectious: 1,218,332,  died: 2,274,  dead: 65,097

May  1:  real: 1,243,241,  official: 1,136,266,  infectious: 1,243,241,  died: 1,947,  dead: 67,044

May  2:  real: 1,268,819,  official: 1,166,135,  infectious: 1,268,819,  died: 1,730,  dead: 68,774

May  3:  real: 1,298,462,  official: 1,193,573,  infectious: 1,298,462,  died: 1,175,  dead: 69,949

May  4:  real: 1,327,754,  official: 1,218,332,  infectious: 1,327,754,  died: 1,338,  dead: 71,287

May  5:  real: 1,353,989,  official: 1,243,241,  infectious: 1,353,989,  died: 2,404,  dead: 73,691

May  6:  real: 1,374,807,  official: 1,268,819,  infectious: 1,374,807,  died: 2,574,  dead: 76,265

May  7:  real: 1,393,513,  official: 1,298,462,  infectious: 1,393,513,  died: 2,173,  dead: 78,438

May  8:  real: 1,416,537,  official: 1,327,754,  infectious: 1,416,537,  died: 1,713,  dead: 80,151

May  9:  real: 1,438,927,  official: 1,353,989,  infectious: 1,438,927,  died: 1,451,  dead: 81,602

May 10:  real: 1,467,022,  official: 1,374,807,  infectious: 1,467,022,  died: 1,215,  dead: 82,817

May 11:  real: 1,494,646,  official: 1,393,513,  infectious: 1,494,646,  died: 1,075,  dead: 83,892

May 12:  real: 1,518,978,  official: 1,416,537,  infectious: 1,518,978,  died: 1,912,  dead: 85,804

May 13:  real: 1,539,179,  official: 1,438,927,  infectious: 1,539,179,  died: 1,857,  dead: 87,661

May 14:  real: 1,562,722,  official: 1,467,022,  infectious: 1,562,722,  died: 1,791,  dead: 89,452

May 15:  real: 1,583,523,  official: 1,494,646,  infectious: 1,583,523,  died: 1,637,  dead: 91,089

May 16:  real: 1,606,195,  official: 1,518,978,  infectious: 1,606,195,  died: 1,239,  dead: 92,328

May 17:  real: 1,635,039,  official: 1,539,179,  infectious: 1,635,039,  died: 882,  dead: 93,210

May 18:  real: 1,659,705,  official: 1,562,722,  infectious: 1,659,705,  died: 1,018,  dead: 94,228

May 19:  real: 1,681,644,  official: 1,583,523,  infectious: 1,681,644,  died: 1,582,  dead: 95,810

May 20:  real: 1,701,574,  official: 1,606,195,  infectious: 1,701,574,  died: 1,432,  dead: 97,242

May 21:  real: 1,721,494,  official: 1,635,039,  infectious: 1,721,494,  died: 1,432,  dead: 98,674

May 22:  real: 1,740,894,  official: 1,659,705,  infectious: 1,740,894,  died: 1,322,  dead: 99,996

May 23:  real: 1,761,648,  official: 1,681,644,  infectious: 1,761,648,  died: 1,053,  dead: 101,049

May 24:  real: 1,784,733,  official: 1,701,574,  infectious: 1,784,733,  died: 626,  dead: 101,675

May 25:  real: 1,810,430,  official: 1,721,494,  infectious: 1,810,430,  died: 636,  dead: 102,311

May 26:  real: 1,834,193,  official: 1,740,894,  infectious: 1,834,193,  died: 783,  dead: 103,094

May 27:  real: 1,854,948,  official: 1,761,648,  infectious: 1,854,948,  died: 1,563,  dead: 104,657

May 28:  real: 1,877,379,  official: 1,784,733,  infectious: 1,877,379,  died: 1,239,  dead: 105,896

May 29:  real: 1,899,666,  official: 1,810,430,  infectious: 1,899,666,  died: 1,234,  dead: 107,130

May 30:  real: 1,920,497,  official: 1,834,193,  infectious: 1,920,497,  died: 1,033,  dead: 108,163

May 31:  real: 1,943,347,  official: 1,854,948,  infectious: 1,943,347,  died: 651,  dead: 108,814

Jun  1:  real: 1,968,774,  official: 1,877,379,  infectious: 1,968,774,  died: 695,  dead: 109,509

Jun  2:  real: 1,991,636,  official: 1,899,666,  infectious: 1,991,636,  died: 1,147,  dead: 110,656

Jun  3:  real: 2,010,569,  official: 1,920,497,  infectious: 2,010,569,  died: 1,104,  dead: 111,760

Jun  4:  real: 2,029,638,  official: 1,943,347,  infectious: 2,029,638,  died: 1,050,  dead: 112,810

Jun  5:  real: 2,048,723,  official: 1,968,774,  infectious: 2,048,723,  died: 988,  dead: 113,798

Jun  6:  real: 2,069,763,  official: 1,991,636,  infectious: 2,069,763,  died: 717,  dead: 114,515

Jun  7:  real: 2,093,253,  official: 2,010,569,  infectious: 2,093,253,  died: 384,  dead: 114,899

Jun  8:  real: 2,120,658,  official: 2,029,638,  infectious: 2,120,658,  died: 598,  dead: 115,497

Jun  9:  real: 2,146,148,  official: 2,048,723,  infectious: 2,146,148,  died: 1,105,  dead: 116,602

Jun 10:  real: 2,166,329,  official: 2,069,763,  infectious: 2,166,329,  died: 998,  dead: 117,600

Jun 11:  real: 2,187,230,  official: 2,093,253,  infectious: 2,187,230,  died: 918,  dead: 118,518

Jun 12:  real: 2,212,864,  official: 2,120,658,  infectious: 2,212,864,  died: 800,  dead: 119,318

Jun 13:  real: 2,239,121,  official: 2,146,148,  infectious: 2,239,121,  died: 716,  dead: 120,034

Jun 14:  real: 2,267,085,  official: 2,166,329,  infectious: 2,267,085,  died: 336,  dead: 120,370

Jun 15:  real: 2,300,667,  official: 2,187,230,  infectious: 2,300,667,  died: 432,  dead: 120,802

Jun 16:  real: 2,334,098,  official: 2,212,864,  infectious: 2,334,098,  died: 859,  dead: 121,661

Jun 17:  real: 2,360,216,  official: 2,239,121,  infectious: 2,360,216,  died: 819,  dead: 122,480

Jun 18:  real: 2,391,754,  official: 2,267,085,  infectious: 2,391,754,  died: 758,  dead: 123,238

Jun 19:  real: 2,427,820,  official: 2,300,667,  infectious: 2,427,820,  died: 729,  dead: 123,967

Jun 20:  real: 2,466,254,  official: 2,334,098,  infectious: 2,466,254,  died: 582,  dead: 124,549

Jun 21:  real: 2,506,490,  official: 2,360,216,  infectious: 2,506,490,  died: 271,  dead: 124,820

Jun 22:  real: 2,553,855,  official: 2,391,754,  infectious: 2,553,855,  died: 369,  dead: 125,189

Jun 23:  real: 2,597,454,  official: 2,427,820,  infectious: 2,597,454,  died: 871,  dead: 126,060

Jun 24:  real: 2,638,017,  official: 2,466,254,  infectious: 2,638,017,  died: 819,  dead: 126,879

Jun 25:  real: 2,682,781,  official: 2,506,490,  infectious: 2,682,781,  died: 653,  dead: 127,532

Jun 26:  real: 2,728,856,  official: 2,553,855,  infectious: 2,728,856,  died: 663,  dead: 128,195

Jun 27:  real: 2,779,953,  official: 2,597,454,  infectious: 2,779,953,  died: 512,  dead: 128,707

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 2,790,332,  official: 2,638,017,  infectious: 585,202,  died: 539,  dead: 129,246

Jun 29:  real: 2,801,260,  official: 2,682,781,  infectious: 616,203,  died: 564,  dead: 129,810

Jun 30:  real: 2,811,870,  official: 2,728,856,  infectious: 598,303,  died: 663,  dead: 130,473

Jul  1:  real: 2,822,192,  official: 2,779,953,  infectious: 582,085,  died: 611,  dead: 131,084

Jul  2:  real: 2,832,288,  official: 2,790,332,  infectious: 569,346,  died: 568,  dead: 131,652

Jul  3:  real: 2,842,125,  official: 2,801,260,  infectious: 554,777,  died: 627,  dead: 132,279

Jul  4:  real: 2,851,643,  official: 2,811,870,  infectious: 536,834,  died: 645,  dead: 132,924

Jul  5:  real: 2,860,836,  official: 2,822,192,  infectious: 518,480,  died: 716,  dead: 133,640

Jul  6:  real: 2,869,661,  official: 2,832,288,  infectious: 497,783,  died: 0,  dead: 133,640

Jul  7:  real: 2,878,028,  official: 2,842,125,  infectious: 471,942,  died: 539,  dead: 134,179

Jul  8:  real: 2,885,933,  official: 2,851,643,  infectious: 445,879,  died: 564,  dead: 134,743

Jul  9:  real: 2,893,578,  official: 2,860,836,  infectious: 431,248,  died: 663,  dead: 135,406

Jul 10:  real: 2,900,877,  official: 2,869,661,  infectious: 411,753,  died: 611,  dead: 136,017

Jul 11:  real: 2,907,763,  official: 2,878,028,  infectious: 388,437,  died: 568,  dead: 136,585

Jul 12:  real: 2,914,196,  official: 2,885,933,  infectious: 362,937,  died: 627,  dead: 137,212

Jul 13:  real: 2,920,145,  official: 2,893,578,  infectious: 335,629,  died: 645,  dead: 137,857

Jul 14:  real: 2,925,502,  official: 2,900,877,  infectious: 302,218,  died: 716,  dead: 138,573

Jul 15:  real: 2,930,313,  official: 2,907,763,  infectious: 271,400,  died: 290,  dead: 138,863

Jul 16:  real: 2,934,611,  official: 2,914,196,  infectious: 242,486,  died: 306,  dead: 139,169

Jul 17:  real: 2,938,329,  official: 2,920,145,  infectious: 209,744,  died: 297,  dead: 139,466

Jul 18:  real: 2,941,440,  official: 2,925,502,  infectious: 175,531,  died: 289,  dead: 139,755

Jul 19:  real: 2,943,865,  official: 2,930,313,  infectious: 136,803,  died: 282,  dead: 140,037

Jul 20:  real: 2,946,171,  official: 2,934,611,  infectious: 130,099,  died: 275,  dead: 140,312

Jul 21:  real: 2,948,339,  official: 2,938,329,  infectious: 122,343,  died: 266,  dead: 140,578

Jul 22:  real: 2,950,374,  official: 2,941,440,  infectious: 114,806,  died: 257,  dead: 140,835

Jul 23:  real: 2,952,278,  official: 2,943,865,  infectious: 107,454,  died: 247,  dead: 141,082

Jul 24:  real: 2,954,055,  official: 2,946,171,  infectious: 100,252,  died: 234,  dead: 141,316

Jul 25:  real: 2,955,708,  official: 2,948,339,  infectious: 93,242,  died: 221,  dead: 141,537

Jul 26:  real: 2,957,240,  official: 2,950,374,  infectious: 86,469,  died: 213,  dead: 141,750

Jul 27:  real: 2,958,657,  official: 2,952,278,  infectious: 79,937,  died: 204,  dead: 141,954

Jul 28:  real: 2,959,963,  official: 2,954,055,  infectious: 73,697,  died: 193,  dead: 142,147

Jul 29:  real: 2,961,165,  official: 2,955,708,  infectious: 67,833,  died: 180,  dead: 142,327

Jul 30:  real: 2,962,270,  official: 2,957,240,  infectious: 62,336,  died: 166,  dead: 142,493

Jul 31:  real: 2,963,280,  official: 2,958,657,  infectious: 56,968,  died: 150,  dead: 142,643

Aug  1:  real: 2,964,198,  official: 2,959,963,  infectious: 51,807,  died: 134,  dead: 142,777

Aug  2:  real: 2,965,029,  official: 2,961,165,  infectious: 46,908,  died: 120,  dead: 142,897

Aug  3:  real: 2,965,779,  official: 2,962,270,  infectious: 42,306,  died: 103,  dead: 143,000

Aug  4:  real: 2,966,453,  official: 2,963,280,  infectious: 38,029,  died: 86,  dead: 143,086

Aug  5:  real: 2,967,059,  official: 2,964,198,  infectious: 34,169,  died: 67,  dead: 143,153

Aug  6:  real: 2,967,603,  official: 2,965,029,  infectious: 30,693,  died: 64,  dead: 143,217

Aug  7:  real: 2,968,092,  official: 2,965,779,  infectious: 27,583,  died: 60,  dead: 143,277

Aug  8:  real: 2,968,533,  official: 2,966,453,  infectious: 24,896,  died: 56,  dead: 143,333

Aug  9:  real: 2,968,935,  official: 2,967,059,  infectious: 22,660,  died: 53,  dead: 143,386

Aug 10:  real: 2,969,306,  official: 2,967,603,  infectious: 20,945,  died: 49,  dead: 143,435

Aug 11:  real: 2,969,648,  official: 2,968,092,  infectious: 19,305,  died: 46,  dead: 143,481

Aug 12:  real: 2,969,963,  official: 2,968,533,  infectious: 17,763,  died: 42,  dead: 143,523

Aug 13:  real: 2,970,252,  official: 2,968,935,  infectious: 16,315,  died: 39,  dead: 143,562

Aug 14:  real: 2,970,517,  official: 2,969,306,  infectious: 14,961,  died: 36,  dead: 143,598

Aug 15:  real: 2,970,760,  official: 2,969,648,  infectious: 13,697,  died: 33,  dead: 143,631

Aug 16:  real: 2,970,982,  official: 2,969,963,  infectious: 12,522,  died: 30,  dead: 143,661

Aug 17:  real: 2,971,185,  official: 2,970,252,  infectious: 11,434,  died: 28,  dead: 143,689

Aug 18:  real: 2,971,370,  official: 2,970,517,  infectious: 10,428,  died: 25,  dead: 143,714

Aug 19:  real: 2,971,538,  official: 2,970,760,  infectious: 9,500,  died: 23,  dead: 143,737

Aug 20:  real: 2,971,691,  official: 2,970,982,  infectious: 8,646,  died: 20,  dead: 143,757

Aug 21:  real: 2,971,830,  official: 2,971,185,  infectious: 7,857,  died: 18,  dead: 143,775

Aug 22:  real: 2,971,956,  official: 2,971,370,  infectious: 7,135,  died: 16,  dead: 143,791

Aug 23:  real: 2,972,071,  official: 2,971,538,  infectious: 6,478,  died: 14,  dead: 143,805

Aug 24:  real: 2,972,175,  official: 2,971,691,  infectious: 5,882,  died: 13,  dead: 143,818

Aug 25:  real: 2,972,270,  official: 2,971,830,  infectious: 5,345,  died: 12,  dead: 143,830

Aug 26:  real: 2,972,356,  official: 2,971,956,  infectious: 4,862,  died: 11,  dead: 143,841

Aug 27:  real: 2,972,434,  official: 2,972,071,  infectious: 4,428,  died: 9,  dead: 143,850

Aug 28:  real: 2,972,506,  official: 2,972,175,  infectious: 4,039,  died: 9,  dead: 143,859

Aug 29:  real: 2,972,571,  official: 2,972,270,  infectious: 3,689,  died: 8,  dead: 143,867

Aug 30:  real: 2,972,631,  official: 2,972,356,  infectious: 3,375,  died: 7,  dead: 143,874

Aug 31:  real: 2,972,686,  official: 2,972,434,  infectious: 3,088,  died: 7,  dead: 143,881

Sep  1:  real: 2,972,736,  official: 2,972,506,  infectious: 2,824,  died: 6,  dead: 143,887

Sep  2:  real: 2,972,782,  official: 2,972,571,  infectious: 2,581,  died: 6,  dead: 143,893

Sep  3:  real: 2,972,824,  official: 2,972,631,  infectious: 2,356,  died: 5,  dead: 143,898

Sep  4:  real: 2,972,862,  official: 2,972,686,  infectious: 2,151,  died: 4,  dead: 143,902

Sep  5:  real: 2,972,897,  official: 2,972,736,  infectious: 1,962,  died: 4,  dead: 143,906

Sep  6:  real: 2,972,929,  official: 2,972,782,  infectious: 1,790,  died: 3,  dead: 143,909

Sep  7:  real: 2,972,958,  official: 2,972,824,  infectious: 1,633,  died: 3,  dead: 143,912

Sep  8:  real: 2,972,984,  official: 2,972,862,  infectious: 1,489,  died: 3,  dead: 143,915

Sep  9:  real: 2,973,008,  official: 2,972,897,  infectious: 1,357,  died: 2,  dead: 143,917

Sep 10:  real: 2,973,030,  official: 2,972,929,  infectious: 1,238,  died: 2,  dead: 143,919

Sep 11:  real: 2,973,050,  official: 2,972,958,  infectious: 1,128,  died: 2,  dead: 143,921

Sep 12:  real: 2,973,068,  official: 2,972,984,  infectious: 1,029,  died: 2,  dead: 143,923

Sep 13:  real: 2,973,085,  official: 2,973,008,  infectious: 939,  died: 1,  dead: 143,924

Sep 14:  real: 2,973,100,  official: 2,973,030,  infectious: 857,  died: 1,  dead: 143,925

Sep 15:  real: 2,973,114,  official: 2,973,050,  infectious: 784,  died: 1,  dead: 143,926

Sep 16:  real: 2,973,127,  official: 2,973,068,  infectious: 716,  died: 1,  dead: 143,927

Sep 17:  real: 2,973,139,  official: 2,973,085,  infectious: 655,  died: 1,  dead: 143,928

Sep 18:  real: 2,973,150,  official: 2,973,100,  infectious: 599,  died: 1,  dead: 143,929

Sep 19:  real: 2,973,160,  official: 2,973,114,  infectious: 548,  died: 1,  dead: 143,930

Sep 20:  real: 2,973,169,  official: 2,973,127,  infectious: 502,  died: 1,  dead: 143,931

Sep 21:  real: 2,973,177,  official: 2,973,139,  infectious: 459,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 22:  real: 2,973,184,  official: 2,973,150,  infectious: 421,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 23:  real: 2,973,191,  official: 2,973,160,  infectious: 386,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 24:  real: 2,973,197,  official: 2,973,169,  infectious: 353,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 25:  real: 2,973,203,  official: 2,973,177,  infectious: 324,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 26:  real: 2,973,208,  official: 2,973,184,  infectious: 296,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 27:  real: 2,973,213,  official: 2,973,191,  infectious: 272,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 28:  real: 2,973,217,  official: 2,973,197,  infectious: 249,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 29:  real: 2,973,221,  official: 2,973,203,  infectious: 229,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Sep 30:  real: 2,973,225,  official: 2,973,208,  infectious: 210,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  1:  real: 2,973,228,  official: 2,973,213,  infectious: 193,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  2:  real: 2,973,231,  official: 2,973,217,  infectious: 178,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  3:  real: 2,973,234,  official: 2,973,221,  infectious: 163,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  4:  real: 2,973,237,  official: 2,973,225,  infectious: 149,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  5:  real: 2,973,239,  official: 2,973,228,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  6:  real: 2,973,241,  official: 2,973,231,  infectious: 127,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  7:  real: 2,973,243,  official: 2,973,234,  infectious: 117,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  8:  real: 2,973,245,  official: 2,973,237,  infectious: 107,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct  9:  real: 2,973,247,  official: 2,973,239,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 10:  real: 2,973,249,  official: 2,973,241,  infectious: 90,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 11:  real: 2,973,250,  official: 2,973,243,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 12:  real: 2,973,251,  official: 2,973,245,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 13:  real: 2,973,252,  official: 2,973,247,  infectious: 71,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 14:  real: 2,973,253,  official: 2,973,249,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 15:  real: 2,973,254,  official: 2,973,250,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 16:  real: 2,973,255,  official: 2,973,251,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 17:  real: 2,973,256,  official: 2,973,252,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 18:  real: 2,973,257,  official: 2,973,253,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 19:  real: 2,973,258,  official: 2,973,254,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 20:  real: 2,973,259,  official: 2,973,255,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 21:  real: 2,973,260,  official: 2,973,256,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 22:  real: 2,973,261,  official: 2,973,257,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 23:  real: 2,973,262,  official: 2,973,258,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 24:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,259,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 25:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,260,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 26:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,261,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 27:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,262,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 28:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 29:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 30:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Oct 31:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  1:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  2:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  3:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  4:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  5:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  6:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  7:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  8:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov  9:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 10:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 11:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 12:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 13:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 14:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 15:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 16:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 17:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 18:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 19:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 20:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 21:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 22:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 23:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 24:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 25:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 26:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 27:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 28:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 29:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Nov 30:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  1:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  2:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  3:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  4:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  5:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  6:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  7:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  8:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec  9:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 10:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 11:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 12:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 13:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 14:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 15:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 16:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 17:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 18:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 19:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 20:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 21:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 22:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 23:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 24:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 25:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 26:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 27:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 28:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 29:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 30:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

Dec 31:  real: 2,973,263,  official: 2,973,263,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 143,931

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        716:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
    143,931:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
    143,931:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 101.76%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0176
Official uninf: 247,220,047 / Adult Pop.: 250,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 98.89%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0112
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 101.78%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0178