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COVID-19 Forecast for Belgium, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
1982 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Belgium HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 1982 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Belgium run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Belgium are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      9,744:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      9,744:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Belgium COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.001, at 100.12% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 50,  official: 2,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 109,  official: 8,  infectious: 109,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 169,  official: 15,  infectious: 169,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 200,  official: 23,  infectious: 200,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 239,  official: 50,  infectious: 239,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 267,  official: 109,  infectious: 267,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 314,  official: 169,  infectious: 314,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 399,  official: 200,  infectious: 399,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 559,  official: 239,  infectious: 559,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 689,  official: 267,  infectious: 689,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 886,  official: 314,  infectious: 886,  died: 3,  dead: 3

Mar 12:  real: 1,058,  official: 399,  infectious: 1,058,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 13:  real: 1,243,  official: 559,  infectious: 1,243,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 14:  real: 1,486,  official: 689,  infectious: 1,486,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 15:  real: 1,795,  official: 886,  infectious: 1,795,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar 16:  real: 2,257,  official: 1,058,  infectious: 2,257,  died: 6,  dead: 10

Mar 17:  real: 2,815,  official: 1,243,  infectious: 2,815,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Mar 18:  real: 3,401,  official: 1,486,  infectious: 3,401,  died: 4,  dead: 14

Mar 19:  real: 3,743,  official: 1,795,  infectious: 3,743,  died: 7,  dead: 21

Mar 20:  real: 4,269,  official: 2,257,  infectious: 4,269,  died: 16,  dead: 37

Mar 21:  real: 4,937,  official: 2,815,  infectious: 4,937,  died: 30,  dead: 67

Mar 22:  real: 6,235,  official: 3,401,  infectious: 6,235,  died: 8,  dead: 75

Mar 23:  real: 7,284,  official: 3,743,  infectious: 7,284,  died: 13,  dead: 88

Mar 24:  real: 9,134,  official: 4,269,  infectious: 9,134,  died: 34,  dead: 122

Mar 25:  real: 10,836,  official: 4,937,  infectious: 10,836,  died: 56,  dead: 178

Mar 26:  real: 11,899,  official: 6,235,  infectious: 11,899,  died: 42,  dead: 220

Mar 27:  real: 12,775,  official: 7,284,  infectious: 12,775,  died: 69,  dead: 289

Mar 28:  real: 13,964,  official: 9,134,  infectious: 13,964,  died: 64,  dead: 353

Mar 29:  real: 15,348,  official: 10,836,  infectious: 15,348,  died: 78,  dead: 431

Mar 30:  real: 16,770,  official: 11,899,  infectious: 16,770,  died: 82,  dead: 513

Mar 31:  real: 18,431,  official: 12,775,  infectious: 18,431,  died: 192,  dead: 705

Apr  1:  real: 19,691,  official: 13,964,  infectious: 19,691,  died: 123,  dead: 828

Apr  2:  real: 20,814,  official: 15,348,  infectious: 20,814,  died: 183,  dead: 1,011

Apr  3:  real: 22,194,  official: 16,770,  infectious: 22,194,  died: 132,  dead: 1,143

Apr  4:  real: 23,403,  official: 18,431,  infectious: 23,403,  died: 140,  dead: 1,283

Apr  5:  real: 24,983,  official: 19,691,  infectious: 24,983,  died: 164,  dead: 1,447

Apr  6:  real: 26,667,  official: 20,814,  infectious: 26,667,  died: 185,  dead: 1,632

Apr  7:  real: 28,018,  official: 22,194,  infectious: 28,018,  died: 403,  dead: 2,035

Apr  8:  real: 29,647,  official: 23,403,  infectious: 29,647,  died: 205,  dead: 2,240

Apr  9:  real: 30,589,  official: 24,983,  infectious: 30,589,  died: 283,  dead: 2,523

Apr 10:  real: 31,119,  official: 26,667,  infectious: 31,119,  died: 496,  dead: 3,019

Apr 11:  real: 33,573,  official: 28,018,  infectious: 33,573,  died: 327,  dead: 3,346

Apr 12:  real: 34,809,  official: 29,647,  infectious: 34,809,  died: 254,  dead: 3,600

Apr 13:  real: 36,138,  official: 30,589,  infectious: 36,138,  died: 303,  dead: 3,903

Apr 14:  real: 37,183,  official: 31,119,  infectious: 37,183,  died: 254,  dead: 4,157

Apr 15:  real: 38,496,  official: 33,573,  infectious: 38,496,  died: 283,  dead: 4,440

Apr 16:  real: 39,983,  official: 34,809,  infectious: 39,983,  died: 417,  dead: 4,857

Apr 17:  real: 40,956,  official: 36,138,  infectious: 40,956,  died: 306,  dead: 5,163

Apr 18:  real: 41,889,  official: 37,183,  infectious: 41,889,  died: 290,  dead: 5,453

Apr 19:  real: 42,797,  official: 38,496,  infectious: 42,797,  died: 230,  dead: 5,683

Apr 20:  real: 44,293,  official: 39,983,  infectious: 44,293,  died: 145,  dead: 5,828

Apr 21:  real: 45,325,  official: 40,956,  infectious: 45,325,  died: 170,  dead: 5,998

Apr 22:  real: 46,134,  official: 41,889,  infectious: 46,134,  died: 264,  dead: 6,262

Apr 23:  real: 46,687,  official: 42,797,  infectious: 46,687,  died: 228,  dead: 6,490

Apr 24:  real: 47,334,  official: 44,293,  infectious: 47,334,  died: 189,  dead: 6,679

Apr 25:  real: 47,859,  official: 45,325,  infectious: 47,859,  died: 238,  dead: 6,917

Apr 26:  real: 48,519,  official: 46,134,  infectious: 48,519,  died: 177,  dead: 7,094

Apr 27:  real: 49,032,  official: 46,687,  infectious: 49,032,  died: 113,  dead: 7,207

Apr 28:  real: 49,517,  official: 47,334,  infectious: 49,517,  died: 124,  dead: 7,331

Apr 29:  real: 49,906,  official: 47,859,  infectious: 49,906,  died: 170,  dead: 7,501

Apr 30:  real: 50,267,  official: 48,519,  infectious: 50,267,  died: 93,  dead: 7,594

May  1:  real: 50,509,  official: 49,032,  infectious: 50,509,  died: 109,  dead: 7,703

May  2:  real: 50,781,  official: 49,517,  infectious: 50,781,  died: 62,  dead: 7,765

May  3:  real: 51,420,  official: 49,906,  infectious: 51,420,  died: 79,  dead: 7,844

May  4:  real: 52,011,  official: 50,267,  infectious: 52,011,  died: 80,  dead: 7,924

May  5:  real: 52,596,  official: 50,509,  infectious: 52,596,  died: 92,  dead: 8,016

May  6:  real: 53,081,  official: 50,781,  infectious: 53,081,  died: 323,  dead: 8,339

May  7:  real: 53,449,  official: 51,420,  infectious: 53,449,  died: 76,  dead: 8,415

May  8:  real: 53,779,  official: 52,011,  infectious: 53,779,  died: 106,  dead: 8,521

May  9:  real: 53,981,  official: 52,596,  infectious: 53,981,  died: 60,  dead: 8,581

May 10:  real: 54,288,  official: 53,081,  infectious: 54,288,  died: 75,  dead: 8,656

May 11:  real: 54,644,  official: 53,449,  infectious: 54,644,  died: 51,  dead: 8,707

May 12:  real: 54,989,  official: 53,779,  infectious: 54,989,  died: 54,  dead: 8,761

May 13:  real: 55,280,  official: 53,981,  infectious: 55,280,  died: 82,  dead: 8,843

May 14:  real: 55,559,  official: 54,288,  infectious: 55,559,  died: 60,  dead: 8,903

May 15:  real: 55,791,  official: 54,644,  infectious: 55,791,  died: 56,  dead: 8,959

May 16:  real: 55,983,  official: 54,989,  infectious: 55,983,  died: 46,  dead: 9,005

May 17:  real: 56,235,  official: 55,280,  infectious: 56,235,  died: 47,  dead: 9,052

May 18:  real: 56,511,  official: 55,559,  infectious: 56,511,  died: 28,  dead: 9,080

May 19:  real: 56,810,  official: 55,791,  infectious: 56,810,  died: 28,  dead: 9,108

May 20:  real: 57,092,  official: 55,983,  infectious: 57,092,  died: 42,  dead: 9,150

May 21:  real: 57,342,  official: 56,235,  infectious: 57,342,  died: 36,  dead: 9,186

May 22:  real: 57,455,  official: 56,511,  infectious: 57,455,  died: 26,  dead: 9,212

May 23:  real: 57,592,  official: 56,810,  infectious: 57,592,  died: 25,  dead: 9,237

May 24:  real: 57,849,  official: 57,092,  infectious: 57,849,  died: 43,  dead: 9,280

May 25:  real: 58,061,  official: 57,342,  infectious: 58,061,  died: 32,  dead: 9,312

May 26:  real: 58,186,  official: 57,455,  infectious: 58,186,  died: 22,  dead: 9,334

May 27:  real: 58,381,  official: 57,592,  infectious: 58,381,  died: 30,  dead: 9,364

May 28:  real: 58,517,  official: 57,849,  infectious: 58,517,  died: 24,  dead: 9,388

May 29:  real: 58,615,  official: 58,061,  infectious: 58,615,  died: 42,  dead: 9,430

May 30:  real: 58,685,  official: 58,186,  infectious: 58,685,  died: 23,  dead: 9,453

May 31:  real: 58,767,  official: 58,381,  infectious: 58,767,  died: 14,  dead: 9,467

Jun  1:  real: 58,907,  official: 58,517,  infectious: 58,907,  died: 19,  dead: 9,486

Jun  2:  real: 59,072,  official: 58,615,  infectious: 59,072,  died: 19,  dead: 9,505

Jun  3:  real: 59,226,  official: 58,685,  infectious: 59,226,  died: 17,  dead: 9,522

Jun  4:  real: 59,348,  official: 58,767,  infectious: 59,348,  died: 26,  dead: 9,548

Jun  5:  real: 59,437,  official: 58,907,  infectious: 59,437,  died: 18,  dead: 9,566

Jun  6:  real: 59,569,  official: 59,072,  infectious: 59,569,  died: 14,  dead: 9,580

Jun  7:  real: 59,711,  official: 59,226,  infectious: 59,711,  died: 15,  dead: 9,595

Jun  8:  real: 59,819,  official: 59,348,  infectious: 59,819,  died: 11,  dead: 9,606

Jun  9:  real: 59,918,  official: 59,437,  infectious: 59,918,  died: 13,  dead: 9,619

Jun 10:  real: 60,029,  official: 59,569,  infectious: 60,029,  died: 10,  dead: 9,629

Jun 11:  real: 60,100,  official: 59,711,  infectious: 60,100,  died: 7,  dead: 9,636

Jun 12:  real: 60,155,  official: 59,819,  infectious: 60,155,  died: 10,  dead: 9,646

Jun 13:  real: 60,244,  official: 59,918,  infectious: 60,244,  died: 4,  dead: 9,650

Jun 14:  real: 60,348,  official: 60,029,  infectious: 60,348,  died: 5,  dead: 9,655

Jun 15:  real: 60,476,  official: 60,100,  infectious: 60,476,  died: 6,  dead: 9,661

Jun 16:  real: 60,550,  official: 60,155,  infectious: 60,550,  died: 2,  dead: 9,663

Jun 17:  real: 60,550,  official: 60,244,  infectious: 60,550,  died: 12,  dead: 9,675

Jun 18:  real: 60,550,  official: 60,348,  infectious: 60,550,  died: 8,  dead: 9,683

Jun 19:  real: 60,810,  official: 60,476,  infectious: 60,810,  died: 12,  dead: 9,695

Jun 20:  real: 60,898,  official: 60,550,  infectious: 60,898,  died: 1,  dead: 9,696

Jun 21:  real: 61,007,  official: 60,550,  infectious: 61,007,  died: 0,  dead: 9,696

Jun 22:  real: 61,106,  official: 60,550,  infectious: 61,106,  died: 0,  dead: 9,696

Jun 23:  real: 61,209,  official: 60,810,  infectious: 61,209,  died: 17,  dead: 9,713

Jun 24:  real: 61,295,  official: 60,898,  infectious: 61,295,  died: 9,  dead: 9,722

Jun 25:  real: 61,361,  official: 61,007,  infectious: 61,361,  died: 4,  dead: 9,726

Jun 26:  real: 61,427,  official: 61,106,  infectious: 61,427,  died: 5,  dead: 9,731

Jun 27:  real: 61,509,  official: 61,209,  infectious: 61,509,  died: 1,  dead: 9,732

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 61,511,  official: 61,295,  infectious: 1,653,  died: 1,  dead: 9,733

Jun 29:  real: 61,513,  official: 61,361,  infectious: 1,618,  died: 1,  dead: 9,734

Jun 30:  real: 61,515,  official: 61,427,  infectious: 1,492,  died: 1,  dead: 9,735

Jul  1:  real: 61,517,  official: 61,509,  infectious: 1,398,  died: 1,  dead: 9,736

Jul  2:  real: 61,519,  official: 61,511,  infectious: 1,291,  died: 1,  dead: 9,737

Jul  3:  real: 61,520,  official: 61,513,  infectious: 1,218,  died: 0,  dead: 9,737

Jul  4:  real: 61,521,  official: 61,515,  infectious: 1,158,  died: 0,  dead: 9,737

Jul  5:  real: 61,522,  official: 61,517,  infectious: 1,074,  died: 1,  dead: 9,738

Jul  6:  real: 61,523,  official: 61,519,  infectious: 980,  died: 0,  dead: 9,738

Jul  7:  real: 61,524,  official: 61,520,  infectious: 867,  died: 1,  dead: 9,739

Jul  8:  real: 61,525,  official: 61,521,  infectious: 795,  died: 1,  dead: 9,740

Jul  9:  real: 61,526,  official: 61,522,  infectious: 796,  died: 1,  dead: 9,741

Jul 10:  real: 61,527,  official: 61,523,  infectious: 797,  died: 1,  dead: 9,742

Jul 11:  real: 61,528,  official: 61,524,  infectious: 588,  died: 1,  dead: 9,743

Jul 12:  real: 61,529,  official: 61,525,  infectious: 518,  died: 0,  dead: 9,743

Jul 13:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,526,  infectious: 430,  died: 0,  dead: 9,743

Jul 14:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,527,  infectious: 350,  died: 1,  dead: 9,744

Jul 15:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,528,  infectious: 267,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 16:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,529,  infectious: 197,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 17:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 142,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 18:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 19:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 20:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 21:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 22:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 23:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 24:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 25:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 26:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 27:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 28:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 29:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 30:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Jul 31:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  1:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  2:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  3:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  4:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  5:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  6:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  7:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  8:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug  9:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 10:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 11:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 12:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 13:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 14:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 15:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 16:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 17:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 18:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 19:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 20:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 21:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 22:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 23:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 24:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 25:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 26:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 27:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 28:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 29:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 30:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Aug 31:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  1:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  2:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  3:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  4:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  5:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  6:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  7:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  8:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep  9:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 10:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 11:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 12:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 13:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 14:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 15:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 16:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 17:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 18:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 19:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 20:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 21:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 22:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 23:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 24:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 25:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 26:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 27:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 28:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 29:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Sep 30:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  1:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  2:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  3:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  4:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  5:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  6:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  7:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  8:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct  9:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 10:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 11:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 12:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 13:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 14:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 15:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 16:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 17:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 18:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 19:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 20:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 21:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 22:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 23:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 24:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 25:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 26:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 27:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 28:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 29:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 30:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Oct 31:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  1:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  2:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  3:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  4:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  5:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  6:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  7:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  8:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov  9:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 10:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 11:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 12:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 13:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 14:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 15:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 16:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 17:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 18:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 19:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 20:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 21:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 22:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 23:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 24:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 25:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 26:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 27:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 28:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 29:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Nov 30:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  1:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  2:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  3:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  4:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  5:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  6:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  7:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  8:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec  9:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 10:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 11:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 12:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 13:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 14:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 15:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 16:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 17:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 18:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 19:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 20:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 21:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 22:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 23:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 24:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 25:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 26:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 27:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 28:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 29:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 30:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

Dec 31:  real: 61,530,  official: 61,530,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 9,744

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jun 28.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      9,744:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      9,744:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.12%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0012
Official uninf: 8,938,491 / Adult Pop.: 9,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.32%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0069
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.12%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0012