COVID-19 Forecast for Switzerland, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
937 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Switzerland HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 937 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Switzerland run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Switzerland are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,964:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,964:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Switzerland COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.002, at 100.25% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 120,  official: 24,  infectious: 120,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 214,  official: 30,  infectious: 214,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 268,  official: 58,  infectious: 268,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 332,  official: 93,  infectious: 332,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 374,  official: 120,  infectious: 374,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  6:  real: 497,  official: 214,  infectious: 497,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  7:  real: 652,  official: 268,  infectious: 652,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  8:  real: 868,  official: 332,  infectious: 868,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar  9:  real: 1,139,  official: 374,  infectious: 1,139,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 10:  real: 1,375,  official: 497,  infectious: 1,375,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 11:  real: 2,217,  official: 652,  infectious: 2,217,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 12:  real: 2,353,  official: 868,  infectious: 2,353,  died: 3,  dead: 7

Mar 13:  real: 2,742,  official: 1,139,  infectious: 2,742,  died: 4,  dead: 11

Mar 14:  real: 3,115,  official: 1,375,  infectious: 3,115,  died: 2,  dead: 13

Mar 15:  real: 4,222,  official: 2,217,  infectious: 4,222,  died: 1,  dead: 14

Mar 16:  real: 5,615,  official: 2,353,  infectious: 5,615,  died: 5,  dead: 19

Mar 17:  real: 6,863,  official: 2,742,  infectious: 6,863,  died: 8,  dead: 27

Mar 18:  real: 7,474,  official: 3,115,  infectious: 7,474,  died: 6,  dead: 33

Mar 19:  real: 8,795,  official: 4,222,  infectious: 8,795,  died: 10,  dead: 43

Mar 20:  real: 9,877,  official: 5,615,  infectious: 9,877,  died: 13,  dead: 56

Mar 21:  real: 10,897,  official: 6,863,  infectious: 10,897,  died: 24,  dead: 80

Mar 22:  real: 11,811,  official: 7,474,  infectious: 11,811,  died: 18,  dead: 98

Mar 23:  real: 12,928,  official: 8,795,  infectious: 12,928,  died: 22,  dead: 120

Mar 24:  real: 14,076,  official: 9,877,  infectious: 14,076,  died: 2,  dead: 122

Mar 25:  real: 14,829,  official: 10,897,  infectious: 14,829,  died: 31,  dead: 153

Mar 26:  real: 15,922,  official: 11,811,  infectious: 15,922,  died: 39,  dead: 192

Mar 27:  real: 16,605,  official: 12,928,  infectious: 16,605,  died: 39,  dead: 231

Mar 28:  real: 17,768,  official: 14,076,  infectious: 17,768,  died: 33,  dead: 264

Mar 29:  real: 18,827,  official: 14,829,  infectious: 18,827,  died: 36,  dead: 300

Mar 30:  real: 19,606,  official: 15,922,  infectious: 19,606,  died: 59,  dead: 359

Mar 31:  real: 20,505,  official: 16,605,  infectious: 20,505,  died: 74,  dead: 433

Apr  1:  real: 21,100,  official: 17,768,  infectious: 21,100,  died: 55,  dead: 488

Apr  2:  real: 21,657,  official: 18,827,  infectious: 21,657,  died: 48,  dead: 536

Apr  3:  real: 22,253,  official: 19,606,  infectious: 22,253,  died: 55,  dead: 591

Apr  4:  real: 23,280,  official: 20,505,  infectious: 23,280,  died: 75,  dead: 666

Apr  5:  real: 24,051,  official: 21,100,  infectious: 24,051,  died: 49,  dead: 715

Apr  6:  real: 24,551,  official: 21,657,  infectious: 24,551,  died: 50,  dead: 765

Apr  7:  real: 25,107,  official: 22,253,  infectious: 25,107,  died: 56,  dead: 821

Apr  8:  real: 25,415,  official: 23,280,  infectious: 25,415,  died: 74,  dead: 895

Apr  9:  real: 25,688,  official: 24,051,  infectious: 25,688,  died: 53,  dead: 948

Apr 10:  real: 25,936,  official: 24,551,  infectious: 25,936,  died: 54,  dead: 1,002

Apr 11:  real: 26,336,  official: 25,107,  infectious: 26,336,  died: 34,  dead: 1,036

Apr 12:  real: 26,732,  official: 25,415,  infectious: 26,732,  died: 70,  dead: 1,106

Apr 13:  real: 27,078,  official: 25,688,  infectious: 27,078,  died: 32,  dead: 1,138

Apr 14:  real: 27,404,  official: 25,936,  infectious: 27,404,  died: 36,  dead: 1,174

Apr 15:  real: 27,740,  official: 26,336,  infectious: 27,740,  died: 65,  dead: 1,239

Apr 16:  real: 27,944,  official: 26,732,  infectious: 27,944,  died: 42,  dead: 1,281

Apr 17:  real: 28,063,  official: 27,078,  infectious: 28,063,  died: 46,  dead: 1,327

Apr 18:  real: 28,268,  official: 27,404,  infectious: 28,268,  died: 41,  dead: 1,368

Apr 19:  real: 28,496,  official: 27,740,  infectious: 28,496,  died: 25,  dead: 1,393

Apr 20:  real: 28,677,  official: 27,944,  infectious: 28,677,  died: 36,  dead: 1,429

Apr 21:  real: 28,894,  official: 28,063,  infectious: 28,894,  died: 49,  dead: 1,478

Apr 22:  real: 29,061,  official: 28,268,  infectious: 29,061,  died: 31,  dead: 1,509

Apr 23:  real: 29,164,  official: 28,496,  infectious: 29,164,  died: 40,  dead: 1,549

Apr 24:  real: 29,264,  official: 28,677,  infectious: 29,264,  died: 40,  dead: 1,589

Apr 25:  real: 29,407,  official: 28,894,  infectious: 29,407,  died: 10,  dead: 1,599

Apr 26:  real: 29,586,  official: 29,061,  infectious: 29,586,  died: 11,  dead: 1,610

Apr 27:  real: 29,705,  official: 29,164,  infectious: 29,705,  died: 55,  dead: 1,665

Apr 28:  real: 29,817,  official: 29,264,  infectious: 29,817,  died: 34,  dead: 1,699

Apr 29:  real: 29,905,  official: 29,407,  infectious: 29,905,  died: 17,  dead: 1,716

Apr 30:  real: 29,981,  official: 29,586,  infectious: 29,981,  died: 21,  dead: 1,737

May  1:  real: 30,009,  official: 29,705,  infectious: 30,009,  died: 17,  dead: 1,754

May  2:  real: 30,060,  official: 29,817,  infectious: 30,060,  died: 8,  dead: 1,762

May  3:  real: 30,126,  official: 29,905,  infectious: 30,126,  died: 0,  dead: 1,762

May  4:  real: 30,207,  official: 29,981,  infectious: 30,207,  died: 22,  dead: 1,784

May  5:  real: 30,251,  official: 30,009,  infectious: 30,251,  died: 11,  dead: 1,795

May  6:  real: 30,305,  official: 30,060,  infectious: 30,305,  died: 10,  dead: 1,805

May  7:  real: 30,344,  official: 30,126,  infectious: 30,344,  died: 5,  dead: 1,810

May  8:  real: 30,380,  official: 30,207,  infectious: 30,380,  died: 13,  dead: 1,823

May  9:  real: 30,413,  official: 30,251,  infectious: 30,413,  died: 7,  dead: 1,830

May 10:  real: 30,463,  official: 30,305,  infectious: 30,463,  died: 3,  dead: 1,833

May 11:  real: 30,514,  official: 30,344,  infectious: 30,514,  died: 12,  dead: 1,845

May 12:  real: 30,572,  official: 30,380,  infectious: 30,572,  died: 22,  dead: 1,867

May 13:  real: 30,587,  official: 30,413,  infectious: 30,587,  died: 3,  dead: 1,870

May 14:  real: 30,597,  official: 30,463,  infectious: 30,597,  died: 2,  dead: 1,872

May 15:  real: 30,618,  official: 30,514,  infectious: 30,618,  died: 6,  dead: 1,878

May 16:  real: 30,658,  official: 30,572,  infectious: 30,658,  died: 1,  dead: 1,879

May 17:  real: 30,694,  official: 30,587,  infectious: 30,694,  died: 2,  dead: 1,881

May 18:  real: 30,707,  official: 30,597,  infectious: 30,707,  died: 5,  dead: 1,886

May 19:  real: 30,725,  official: 30,618,  infectious: 30,725,  died: 5,  dead: 1,891

May 20:  real: 30,736,  official: 30,658,  infectious: 30,736,  died: 1,  dead: 1,892

May 21:  real: 30,746,  official: 30,694,  infectious: 30,746,  died: 6,  dead: 1,898

May 22:  real: 30,761,  official: 30,707,  infectious: 30,761,  died: 5,  dead: 1,903

May 23:  real: 30,776,  official: 30,725,  infectious: 30,776,  died: 2,  dead: 1,905

May 24:  real: 30,796,  official: 30,736,  infectious: 30,796,  died: 1,  dead: 1,906

May 25:  real: 30,828,  official: 30,746,  infectious: 30,828,  died: 7,  dead: 1,913

May 26:  real: 30,845,  official: 30,761,  infectious: 30,845,  died: 2,  dead: 1,915

May 27:  real: 30,862,  official: 30,776,  infectious: 30,862,  died: 2,  dead: 1,917

May 28:  real: 30,871,  official: 30,796,  infectious: 30,871,  died: 2,  dead: 1,919

May 29:  real: 30,874,  official: 30,828,  infectious: 30,874,  died: 0,  dead: 1,919

May 30:  real: 30,893,  official: 30,845,  infectious: 30,893,  died: 0,  dead: 1,919

May 31:  real: 30,913,  official: 30,862,  infectious: 30,913,  died: 1,  dead: 1,920

Jun  1:  real: 30,936,  official: 30,871,  infectious: 30,936,  died: 0,  dead: 1,920

Jun  2:  real: 30,956,  official: 30,874,  infectious: 30,956,  died: 0,  dead: 1,920

Jun  3:  real: 30,965,  official: 30,893,  infectious: 30,965,  died: 1,  dead: 1,921

Jun  4:  real: 30,972,  official: 30,913,  infectious: 30,972,  died: 0,  dead: 1,921

Jun  5:  real: 30,988,  official: 30,936,  infectious: 30,988,  died: 0,  dead: 1,921

Jun  6:  real: 31,011,  official: 30,956,  infectious: 31,011,  died: 0,  dead: 1,921

Jun  7:  real: 31,044,  official: 30,965,  infectious: 31,044,  died: 0,  dead: 1,921

Jun  8:  real: 31,063,  official: 30,972,  infectious: 31,063,  died: 2,  dead: 1,923

Jun  9:  real: 31,094,  official: 30,988,  infectious: 31,094,  died: 11,  dead: 1,934

Jun 10:  real: 31,117,  official: 31,011,  infectious: 31,117,  died: 2,  dead: 1,936

Jun 11:  real: 31,131,  official: 31,044,  infectious: 31,131,  died: 1,  dead: 1,937

Jun 12:  real: 31,154,  official: 31,063,  infectious: 31,154,  died: 1,  dead: 1,938

Jun 13:  real: 31,187,  official: 31,094,  infectious: 31,187,  died: 0,  dead: 1,938

Jun 14:  real: 31,200,  official: 31,117,  infectious: 31,200,  died: 0,  dead: 1,938

Jun 15:  real: 31,235,  official: 31,131,  infectious: 31,235,  died: 1,  dead: 1,939

Jun 16:  real: 31,243,  official: 31,154,  infectious: 31,243,  died: 15,  dead: 1,954

Jun 17:  real: 31,292,  official: 31,187,  infectious: 31,292,  died: 2,  dead: 1,956

Jun 18:  real: 31,310,  official: 31,200,  infectious: 31,310,  died: 0,  dead: 1,956

Jun 19:  real: 31,332,  official: 31,235,  infectious: 31,332,  died: 0,  dead: 1,956

Jun 20:  real: 31,376,  official: 31,243,  infectious: 31,376,  died: 0,  dead: 1,956

Jun 21:  real: 31,428,  official: 31,292,  infectious: 31,428,  died: 0,  dead: 1,956

Jun 22:  real: 31,486,  official: 31,310,  infectious: 31,486,  died: 0,  dead: 1,956

Jun 23:  real: 31,555,  official: 31,332,  infectious: 31,555,  died: 0,  dead: 1,956

Jun 24:  real: 31,617,  official: 31,376,  infectious: 31,617,  died: 2,  dead: 1,958

Jun 25:  real: 31,652,  official: 31,428,  infectious: 31,652,  died: 0,  dead: 1,958

Jun 26:  real: 31,714,  official: 31,486,  infectious: 31,714,  died: 4,  dead: 1,962

Jun 27:  real: 31,851,  official: 31,555,  infectious: 31,851,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 31,853,  official: 31,617,  infectious: 657,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

Jun 29:  real: 31,855,  official: 31,652,  infectious: 762,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

Jun 30:  real: 31,857,  official: 31,714,  infectious: 743,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

Jul  1:  real: 31,859,  official: 31,851,  infectious: 711,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

Jul  2:  real: 31,861,  official: 31,853,  infectious: 685,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

Jul  3:  real: 31,863,  official: 31,855,  infectious: 666,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

Jul  4:  real: 31,865,  official: 31,857,  infectious: 637,  died: 0,  dead: 1,962

Jul  5:  real: 31,866,  official: 31,859,  infectious: 601,  died: 1,  dead: 1,963

Jul  6:  real: 31,867,  official: 31,861,  infectious: 585,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul  7:  real: 31,868,  official: 31,863,  infectious: 544,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul  8:  real: 31,869,  official: 31,865,  infectious: 518,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul  9:  real: 31,870,  official: 31,866,  infectious: 479,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul 10:  real: 31,871,  official: 31,867,  infectious: 464,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul 11:  real: 31,872,  official: 31,868,  infectious: 446,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul 12:  real: 31,873,  official: 31,869,  infectious: 411,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul 13:  real: 31,874,  official: 31,870,  infectious: 369,  died: 0,  dead: 1,963

Jul 14:  real: 31,875,  official: 31,871,  infectious: 322,  died: 1,  dead: 1,964

Jul 15:  real: 31,876,  official: 31,872,  infectious: 266,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 16:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,873,  infectious: 216,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 17:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,874,  infectious: 187,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 18:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,875,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 19:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,876,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 20:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 21:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 22:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 23:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 24:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 25:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 26:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 27:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 28:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 29:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 30:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Jul 31:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  1:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  2:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  3:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  4:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  5:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  6:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  7:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  8:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug  9:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 10:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 11:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 12:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 13:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 14:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 15:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 16:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 17:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 18:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 19:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 20:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 21:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 22:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 23:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 24:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 25:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 26:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 27:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 28:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 29:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 30:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Aug 31:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  1:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  2:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  3:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  4:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  5:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  6:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  7:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  8:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep  9:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 10:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 11:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 12:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 13:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 14:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 15:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 16:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 17:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 18:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 19:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 20:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 21:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 22:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 23:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 24:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 25:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 26:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 27:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 28:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 29:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Sep 30:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  1:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  2:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  3:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  4:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  5:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  6:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  7:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  8:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct  9:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 10:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 11:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 12:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 13:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 14:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 15:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 16:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 17:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 18:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 19:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 20:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 21:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 22:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 23:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 24:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 25:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 26:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 27:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 28:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 29:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 30:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Oct 31:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  1:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  2:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  3:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  4:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  5:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  6:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  7:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  8:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov  9:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 10:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 11:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 12:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 13:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 14:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 15:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 16:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 17:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 18:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 19:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 20:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 21:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 22:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 23:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 24:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 25:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 26:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 27:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 28:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 29:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Nov 30:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  1:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  2:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  3:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  4:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  5:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  6:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  7:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  8:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec  9:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 10:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 11:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 12:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 13:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 14:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 15:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 16:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 17:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 18:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 19:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 20:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 21:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 22:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 23:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 24:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 25:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 26:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 27:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 28:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 29:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 30:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

Dec 31:  real: 31,877,  official: 31,877,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 1,964

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,964:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,964:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.25%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0025
Official uninf: 6,968,149 / Adult Pop.: 7,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.54%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0046
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.25%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0025