Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.
G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH spaceHover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.
If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.
How to read the Log Chart: Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths. Right, dotted lines: projections. Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on. Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different. Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20. A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in, and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat. Forced deaths start about a week after when the red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region, meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators. Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region, and you run out of staffed hospital bed space. Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon. As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink in the black Death rate simulation line at Today. Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated, in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away. Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions. We are working to improve this simulation factor soon. Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical. Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes. Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off. As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this. Since the log Growth curve has recently changed and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S., we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast. Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected. Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.
Wed, Jul 1, 2020:
The curve is now 10x in 560 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Austria run out of space,
is forecast to be NEVER.
And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Austria are used up,
is forecast to be NEVER.
May the officials use this time wisely.
As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 1: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 5. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 702: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 702: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.
Austria COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul 1, 2020: (using Beta = 0.004, at 100.41% Growth per day) Starting Run: Mar 1: real: 43, official: 14, infectious: 43, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 2: real: 66, official: 18, infectious: 66, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 3: real: 81, official: 24, infectious: 81, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 4: real: 104, official: 29, infectious: 104, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 5: real: 131, official: 43, infectious: 131, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 6: real: 182, official: 66, infectious: 182, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 7: real: 246, official: 81, infectious: 246, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 8: real: 361, official: 104, infectious: 361, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 9: real: 504, official: 131, infectious: 504, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 10: real: 655, official: 182, infectious: 655, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 11: real: 860, official: 246, infectious: 860, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 12: real: 1,018, official: 361, infectious: 1,018, died: 1, dead: 1 Mar 13: real: 1,332, official: 504, infectious: 1,332, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 14: real: 1,646, official: 655, infectious: 1,646, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 15: real: 2,179, official: 860, infectious: 2,179, died: 0, dead: 1 Mar 16: real: 2,649, official: 1,018, infectious: 2,649, died: 2, dead: 3 Mar 17: real: 2,992, official: 1,332, infectious: 2,992, died: 1, dead: 4 Mar 18: real: 3,582, official: 1,646, infectious: 3,582, died: 0, dead: 4 Mar 19: real: 4,474, official: 2,179, infectious: 4,474, died: 2, dead: 6 Mar 20: real: 5,283, official: 2,649, infectious: 5,283, died: 0, dead: 6 Mar 21: real: 5,588, official: 2,992, infectious: 5,588, died: 2, dead: 8 Mar 22: real: 6,909, official: 3,582, infectious: 6,909, died: 8, dead: 16 Mar 23: real: 7,697, official: 4,474, infectious: 7,697, died: 5, dead: 21 Mar 24: real: 8,271, official: 5,283, infectious: 8,271, died: 7, dead: 28 Mar 25: real: 8,788, official: 5,588, infectious: 8,788, died: 3, dead: 31 Mar 26: real: 9,618, official: 6,909, infectious: 9,618, died: 18, dead: 49 Mar 27: real: 10,180, official: 7,697, infectious: 10,180, died: 9, dead: 58 Mar 28: real: 10,711, official: 8,271, infectious: 10,711, died: 10, dead: 68 Mar 29: real: 11,129, official: 8,788, infectious: 11,129, died: 18, dead: 86 Mar 30: real: 11,524, official: 9,618, infectious: 11,524, died: 22, dead: 108 Mar 31: real: 11,781, official: 10,180, infectious: 11,781, died: 20, dead: 128 Apr 1: real: 12,051, official: 10,711, infectious: 12,051, died: 18, dead: 146 Apr 2: real: 12,297, official: 11,129, infectious: 12,297, died: 12, dead: 158 Apr 3: real: 12,639, official: 11,524, infectious: 12,639, died: 10, dead: 168 Apr 4: real: 12,942, official: 11,781, infectious: 12,942, died: 18, dead: 186 Apr 5: real: 13,244, official: 12,051, infectious: 13,244, died: 18, dead: 204 Apr 6: real: 13,560, official: 12,297, infectious: 13,560, died: 16, dead: 220 Apr 7: real: 13,806, official: 12,639, infectious: 13,806, died: 23, dead: 243 Apr 8: real: 13,945, official: 12,942, infectious: 13,945, died: 30, dead: 273 Apr 9: real: 14,041, official: 13,244, infectious: 14,041, died: 22, dead: 295 Apr 10: real: 14,226, official: 13,560, infectious: 14,226, died: 24, dead: 319 Apr 11: real: 14,350, official: 13,806, infectious: 14,350, died: 18, dead: 337 Apr 12: real: 14,476, official: 13,945, infectious: 14,476, died: 13, dead: 350 Apr 13: real: 14,595, official: 14,041, infectious: 14,595, died: 18, dead: 368 Apr 14: real: 14,671, official: 14,226, infectious: 14,671, died: 16, dead: 384 Apr 15: real: 14,749, official: 14,350, infectious: 14,749, died: 9, dead: 393 Apr 16: real: 14,795, official: 14,476, infectious: 14,795, died: 17, dead: 410 Apr 17: real: 14,873, official: 14,595, infectious: 14,873, died: 21, dead: 431 Apr 18: real: 14,925, official: 14,671, infectious: 14,925, died: 12, dead: 443 Apr 19: real: 15,002, official: 14,749, infectious: 15,002, died: 9, dead: 452 Apr 20: real: 15,071, official: 14,795, infectious: 15,071, died: 18, dead: 470 Apr 21: real: 15,148, official: 14,873, infectious: 15,148, died: 21, dead: 491 Apr 22: real: 15,225, official: 14,925, infectious: 15,225, died: 19, dead: 510 Apr 23: real: 15,274, official: 15,002, infectious: 15,274, died: 12, dead: 522 Apr 24: real: 15,357, official: 15,071, infectious: 15,357, died: 8, dead: 530 Apr 25: real: 15,402, official: 15,148, infectious: 15,402, died: 6, dead: 536 Apr 26: real: 15,452, official: 15,225, infectious: 15,452, died: 6, dead: 542 Apr 27: real: 15,531, official: 15,274, infectious: 15,531, died: 7, dead: 549 Apr 28: real: 15,558, official: 15,357, infectious: 15,558, died: 20, dead: 569 Apr 29: real: 15,597, official: 15,402, infectious: 15,597, died: 11, dead: 580 Apr 30: real: 15,621, official: 15,452, infectious: 15,621, died: 4, dead: 584 May 1: real: 15,650, official: 15,531, infectious: 15,650, died: 5, dead: 589 May 2: real: 15,684, official: 15,558, infectious: 15,684, died: 7, dead: 596 May 3: real: 15,752, official: 15,597, infectious: 15,752, died: 2, dead: 598 May 4: real: 15,774, official: 15,621, infectious: 15,774, died: 2, dead: 600 May 5: real: 15,833, official: 15,650, infectious: 15,833, died: 6, dead: 606 May 6: real: 15,871, official: 15,684, infectious: 15,871, died: 2, dead: 608 May 7: real: 15,882, official: 15,752, infectious: 15,882, died: 1, dead: 609 May 8: real: 15,961, official: 15,774, infectious: 15,961, died: 5, dead: 614 May 9: real: 15,997, official: 15,833, infectious: 15,997, died: 1, dead: 615 May 10: real: 16,058, official: 15,871, infectious: 16,058, died: 3, dead: 618 May 11: real: 16,109, official: 15,882, infectious: 16,109, died: 2, dead: 620 May 12: real: 16,201, official: 15,961, infectious: 16,201, died: 3, dead: 623 May 13: real: 16,242, official: 15,997, infectious: 16,242, died: 1, dead: 624 May 14: real: 16,269, official: 16,058, infectious: 16,269, died: 2, dead: 626 May 15: real: 16,321, official: 16,109, infectious: 16,321, died: 2, dead: 628 May 16: real: 16,353, official: 16,201, infectious: 16,353, died: 1, dead: 629 May 17: real: 16,404, official: 16,242, infectious: 16,404, died: 0, dead: 629 May 18: real: 16,436, official: 16,269, infectious: 16,436, died: 0, dead: 629 May 19: real: 16,486, official: 16,321, infectious: 16,486, died: 3, dead: 632 May 20: real: 16,503, official: 16,353, infectious: 16,503, died: 1, dead: 633 May 21: real: 16,539, official: 16,404, infectious: 16,539, died: 0, dead: 633 May 22: real: 16,557, official: 16,436, infectious: 16,557, died: 2, dead: 635 May 23: real: 16,591, official: 16,486, infectious: 16,591, died: 4, dead: 639 May 24: real: 16,628, official: 16,503, infectious: 16,628, died: 1, dead: 640 May 25: real: 16,655, official: 16,539, infectious: 16,655, died: 1, dead: 641 May 26: real: 16,685, official: 16,557, infectious: 16,685, died: 2, dead: 643 May 27: real: 16,731, official: 16,591, infectious: 16,731, died: 2, dead: 645 May 28: real: 16,733, official: 16,628, infectious: 16,733, died: 23, dead: 668 May 29: real: 16,759, official: 16,655, infectious: 16,759, died: 0, dead: 668 May 30: real: 16,771, official: 16,685, infectious: 16,771, died: 0, dead: 668 May 31: real: 16,805, official: 16,731, infectious: 16,805, died: 0, dead: 668 Jun 1: real: 16,843, official: 16,733, infectious: 16,843, died: 0, dead: 668 Jun 2: real: 16,898, official: 16,759, infectious: 16,898, died: 1, dead: 669 Jun 3: real: 16,902, official: 16,771, infectious: 16,902, died: 1, dead: 670 Jun 4: real: 16,968, official: 16,805, infectious: 16,968, died: 0, dead: 670 Jun 5: real: 16,979, official: 16,843, infectious: 16,979, died: 2, dead: 672 Jun 6: real: 17,005, official: 16,898, infectious: 17,005, died: 0, dead: 672 Jun 7: real: 17,034, official: 16,902, infectious: 17,034, died: 0, dead: 672 Jun 8: real: 17,064, official: 16,968, infectious: 17,064, died: 0, dead: 672 Jun 9: real: 17,078, official: 16,979, infectious: 17,078, died: 0, dead: 672 Jun 10: real: 17,109, official: 17,005, infectious: 17,109, died: 1, dead: 673 Jun 11: real: 17,135, official: 17,034, infectious: 17,135, died: 1, dead: 674 Jun 12: real: 17,189, official: 17,064, infectious: 17,189, died: 1, dead: 675 Jun 13: real: 17,203, official: 17,078, infectious: 17,203, died: 2, dead: 677 Jun 14: real: 17,223, official: 17,109, infectious: 17,223, died: 0, dead: 677 Jun 15: real: 17,271, official: 17,135, infectious: 17,271, died: 1, dead: 678 Jun 16: real: 17,323, official: 17,189, infectious: 17,323, died: 3, dead: 681 Jun 17: real: 17,341, official: 17,203, infectious: 17,341, died: 6, dead: 687 Jun 18: real: 17,380, official: 17,223, infectious: 17,380, died: 1, dead: 688 Jun 19: real: 17,408, official: 17,271, infectious: 17,408, died: 0, dead: 688 Jun 20: real: 17,449, official: 17,323, infectious: 17,449, died: 0, dead: 688 Jun 21: real: 17,477, official: 17,341, infectious: 17,477, died: 2, dead: 690 Jun 22: real: 17,522, official: 17,380, infectious: 17,522, died: 0, dead: 690 Jun 23: real: 17,580, official: 17,408, infectious: 17,580, died: 3, dead: 693 Jun 24: real: 17,654, official: 17,449, infectious: 17,654, died: 0, dead: 693 Jun 25: real: 17,723, official: 17,477, infectious: 17,723, died: 5, dead: 698 Jun 26: real: 17,766, official: 17,522, infectious: 17,766, died: 0, dead: 698 Jun 27: real: 17,873, official: 17,580, infectious: 17,873, died: 2, dead: 700 ...simulation engine starts here... Jun 28: real: 17,876, official: 17,654, infectious: 699, died: 0, dead: 700 Jun 29: real: 17,879, official: 17,723, infectious: 779, died: 0, dead: 700 Jun 30: real: 17,882, official: 17,766, infectious: 751, died: 0, dead: 700 Jul 1: real: 17,885, official: 17,873, infectious: 736, died: 0, dead: 700 Jul 2: real: 17,888, official: 17,876, infectious: 707, died: 0, dead: 700 Jul 3: real: 17,891, official: 17,879, infectious: 680, died: 0, dead: 700 Jul 4: real: 17,894, official: 17,882, infectious: 630, died: 0, dead: 700 Jul 5: real: 17,897, official: 17,885, infectious: 609, died: 1, dead: 701 Jul 6: real: 17,899, official: 17,888, infectious: 583, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 7: real: 17,901, official: 17,891, infectious: 539, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 8: real: 17,903, official: 17,894, infectious: 483, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 9: real: 17,905, official: 17,897, infectious: 469, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 10: real: 17,907, official: 17,899, infectious: 437, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 11: real: 17,909, official: 17,901, infectious: 415, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 12: real: 17,911, official: 17,903, infectious: 384, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 13: real: 17,912, official: 17,905, infectious: 362, died: 0, dead: 701 Jul 14: real: 17,913, official: 17,907, infectious: 327, died: 1, dead: 702 Jul 15: real: 17,914, official: 17,909, infectious: 280, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 16: real: 17,915, official: 17,911, infectious: 220, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 17: real: 17,916, official: 17,912, infectious: 164, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 18: real: 17,917, official: 17,913, infectious: 130, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 19: real: 17,917, official: 17,914, infectious: 43, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 20: real: 17,917, official: 17,915, infectious: 41, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 21: real: 17,917, official: 17,916, infectious: 38, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 22: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 35, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 23: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 32, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 24: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 29, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 25: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 26, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 26: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 23, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 27: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 20, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 28: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 18, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 29: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 16, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 30: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 14, died: 0, dead: 702 Jul 31: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 12, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 1: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 10, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 2: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 8, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 3: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 6, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 4: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 5, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 5: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 4, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 6: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 3, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 7: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 2, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 8: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 1, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 9: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 10: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 11: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 12: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 13: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 14: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 15: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 16: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 17: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 18: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 19: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 20: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 21: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 22: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 23: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 24: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 25: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 26: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 27: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 28: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 29: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 30: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Aug 31: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 1: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 2: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 3: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 4: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 5: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 6: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 7: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 8: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 9: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 10: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 11: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 12: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 13: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 14: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 15: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 16: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 17: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 18: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 19: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 20: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 21: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 22: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 23: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 24: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 25: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 26: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 27: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 28: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 29: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Sep 30: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 1: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 2: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 3: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 4: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 5: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 6: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 7: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 8: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 9: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 10: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 11: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 12: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 13: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 14: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 15: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 16: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 17: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 18: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 19: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 20: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 21: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 22: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 23: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 24: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 25: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 26: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 27: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 28: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 29: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 30: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Oct 31: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 1: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 2: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 3: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 4: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 5: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 6: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 7: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 8: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 9: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 10: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 11: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 12: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 13: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 14: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 15: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 16: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 17: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 18: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 19: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 20: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 21: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 22: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 23: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 24: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 25: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 26: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 27: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 28: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 29: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Nov 30: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 1: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 2: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 3: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 4: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 5: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 6: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 7: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 8: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 9: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 10: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 11: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 12: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 13: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 14: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 15: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 16: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 17: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 18: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 19: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 20: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 21: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 22: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 23: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 24: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 25: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 26: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 27: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 28: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 29: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 30: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 Dec 31: real: 17,917, official: 17,917, infectious: 0, died: 0, dead: 702 As of Dec 31 evening: VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario! 1: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul 5. 0: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 702: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 702: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS Math Report: Official Growth: 100.41% = Apparent Beta: 0.0041 Official uninf: 6,982,127 / Adult Pop.: 7,000,000 = Choke Rate: 99.74% Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0026 Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.41% = Adjusted Beta: 0.0041