Please Donate

World Countries' Leaderboard

COVID-19 Forecast for Austria, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
560 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Austria HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 560 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Austria run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Austria are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        702:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        702:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Austria COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.004, at 100.41% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 43,  official: 14,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 66,  official: 18,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 81,  official: 24,  infectious: 81,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 104,  official: 29,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 131,  official: 43,  infectious: 131,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 182,  official: 66,  infectious: 182,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 246,  official: 81,  infectious: 246,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 361,  official: 104,  infectious: 361,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 504,  official: 131,  infectious: 504,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 655,  official: 182,  infectious: 655,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 860,  official: 246,  infectious: 860,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 1,018,  official: 361,  infectious: 1,018,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 1,332,  official: 504,  infectious: 1,332,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 14:  real: 1,646,  official: 655,  infectious: 1,646,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 15:  real: 2,179,  official: 860,  infectious: 2,179,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 16:  real: 2,649,  official: 1,018,  infectious: 2,649,  died: 2,  dead: 3

Mar 17:  real: 2,992,  official: 1,332,  infectious: 2,992,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 18:  real: 3,582,  official: 1,646,  infectious: 3,582,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Mar 19:  real: 4,474,  official: 2,179,  infectious: 4,474,  died: 2,  dead: 6

Mar 20:  real: 5,283,  official: 2,649,  infectious: 5,283,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar 21:  real: 5,588,  official: 2,992,  infectious: 5,588,  died: 2,  dead: 8

Mar 22:  real: 6,909,  official: 3,582,  infectious: 6,909,  died: 8,  dead: 16

Mar 23:  real: 7,697,  official: 4,474,  infectious: 7,697,  died: 5,  dead: 21

Mar 24:  real: 8,271,  official: 5,283,  infectious: 8,271,  died: 7,  dead: 28

Mar 25:  real: 8,788,  official: 5,588,  infectious: 8,788,  died: 3,  dead: 31

Mar 26:  real: 9,618,  official: 6,909,  infectious: 9,618,  died: 18,  dead: 49

Mar 27:  real: 10,180,  official: 7,697,  infectious: 10,180,  died: 9,  dead: 58

Mar 28:  real: 10,711,  official: 8,271,  infectious: 10,711,  died: 10,  dead: 68

Mar 29:  real: 11,129,  official: 8,788,  infectious: 11,129,  died: 18,  dead: 86

Mar 30:  real: 11,524,  official: 9,618,  infectious: 11,524,  died: 22,  dead: 108

Mar 31:  real: 11,781,  official: 10,180,  infectious: 11,781,  died: 20,  dead: 128

Apr  1:  real: 12,051,  official: 10,711,  infectious: 12,051,  died: 18,  dead: 146

Apr  2:  real: 12,297,  official: 11,129,  infectious: 12,297,  died: 12,  dead: 158

Apr  3:  real: 12,639,  official: 11,524,  infectious: 12,639,  died: 10,  dead: 168

Apr  4:  real: 12,942,  official: 11,781,  infectious: 12,942,  died: 18,  dead: 186

Apr  5:  real: 13,244,  official: 12,051,  infectious: 13,244,  died: 18,  dead: 204

Apr  6:  real: 13,560,  official: 12,297,  infectious: 13,560,  died: 16,  dead: 220

Apr  7:  real: 13,806,  official: 12,639,  infectious: 13,806,  died: 23,  dead: 243

Apr  8:  real: 13,945,  official: 12,942,  infectious: 13,945,  died: 30,  dead: 273

Apr  9:  real: 14,041,  official: 13,244,  infectious: 14,041,  died: 22,  dead: 295

Apr 10:  real: 14,226,  official: 13,560,  infectious: 14,226,  died: 24,  dead: 319

Apr 11:  real: 14,350,  official: 13,806,  infectious: 14,350,  died: 18,  dead: 337

Apr 12:  real: 14,476,  official: 13,945,  infectious: 14,476,  died: 13,  dead: 350

Apr 13:  real: 14,595,  official: 14,041,  infectious: 14,595,  died: 18,  dead: 368

Apr 14:  real: 14,671,  official: 14,226,  infectious: 14,671,  died: 16,  dead: 384

Apr 15:  real: 14,749,  official: 14,350,  infectious: 14,749,  died: 9,  dead: 393

Apr 16:  real: 14,795,  official: 14,476,  infectious: 14,795,  died: 17,  dead: 410

Apr 17:  real: 14,873,  official: 14,595,  infectious: 14,873,  died: 21,  dead: 431

Apr 18:  real: 14,925,  official: 14,671,  infectious: 14,925,  died: 12,  dead: 443

Apr 19:  real: 15,002,  official: 14,749,  infectious: 15,002,  died: 9,  dead: 452

Apr 20:  real: 15,071,  official: 14,795,  infectious: 15,071,  died: 18,  dead: 470

Apr 21:  real: 15,148,  official: 14,873,  infectious: 15,148,  died: 21,  dead: 491

Apr 22:  real: 15,225,  official: 14,925,  infectious: 15,225,  died: 19,  dead: 510

Apr 23:  real: 15,274,  official: 15,002,  infectious: 15,274,  died: 12,  dead: 522

Apr 24:  real: 15,357,  official: 15,071,  infectious: 15,357,  died: 8,  dead: 530

Apr 25:  real: 15,402,  official: 15,148,  infectious: 15,402,  died: 6,  dead: 536

Apr 26:  real: 15,452,  official: 15,225,  infectious: 15,452,  died: 6,  dead: 542

Apr 27:  real: 15,531,  official: 15,274,  infectious: 15,531,  died: 7,  dead: 549

Apr 28:  real: 15,558,  official: 15,357,  infectious: 15,558,  died: 20,  dead: 569

Apr 29:  real: 15,597,  official: 15,402,  infectious: 15,597,  died: 11,  dead: 580

Apr 30:  real: 15,621,  official: 15,452,  infectious: 15,621,  died: 4,  dead: 584

May  1:  real: 15,650,  official: 15,531,  infectious: 15,650,  died: 5,  dead: 589

May  2:  real: 15,684,  official: 15,558,  infectious: 15,684,  died: 7,  dead: 596

May  3:  real: 15,752,  official: 15,597,  infectious: 15,752,  died: 2,  dead: 598

May  4:  real: 15,774,  official: 15,621,  infectious: 15,774,  died: 2,  dead: 600

May  5:  real: 15,833,  official: 15,650,  infectious: 15,833,  died: 6,  dead: 606

May  6:  real: 15,871,  official: 15,684,  infectious: 15,871,  died: 2,  dead: 608

May  7:  real: 15,882,  official: 15,752,  infectious: 15,882,  died: 1,  dead: 609

May  8:  real: 15,961,  official: 15,774,  infectious: 15,961,  died: 5,  dead: 614

May  9:  real: 15,997,  official: 15,833,  infectious: 15,997,  died: 1,  dead: 615

May 10:  real: 16,058,  official: 15,871,  infectious: 16,058,  died: 3,  dead: 618

May 11:  real: 16,109,  official: 15,882,  infectious: 16,109,  died: 2,  dead: 620

May 12:  real: 16,201,  official: 15,961,  infectious: 16,201,  died: 3,  dead: 623

May 13:  real: 16,242,  official: 15,997,  infectious: 16,242,  died: 1,  dead: 624

May 14:  real: 16,269,  official: 16,058,  infectious: 16,269,  died: 2,  dead: 626

May 15:  real: 16,321,  official: 16,109,  infectious: 16,321,  died: 2,  dead: 628

May 16:  real: 16,353,  official: 16,201,  infectious: 16,353,  died: 1,  dead: 629

May 17:  real: 16,404,  official: 16,242,  infectious: 16,404,  died: 0,  dead: 629

May 18:  real: 16,436,  official: 16,269,  infectious: 16,436,  died: 0,  dead: 629

May 19:  real: 16,486,  official: 16,321,  infectious: 16,486,  died: 3,  dead: 632

May 20:  real: 16,503,  official: 16,353,  infectious: 16,503,  died: 1,  dead: 633

May 21:  real: 16,539,  official: 16,404,  infectious: 16,539,  died: 0,  dead: 633

May 22:  real: 16,557,  official: 16,436,  infectious: 16,557,  died: 2,  dead: 635

May 23:  real: 16,591,  official: 16,486,  infectious: 16,591,  died: 4,  dead: 639

May 24:  real: 16,628,  official: 16,503,  infectious: 16,628,  died: 1,  dead: 640

May 25:  real: 16,655,  official: 16,539,  infectious: 16,655,  died: 1,  dead: 641

May 26:  real: 16,685,  official: 16,557,  infectious: 16,685,  died: 2,  dead: 643

May 27:  real: 16,731,  official: 16,591,  infectious: 16,731,  died: 2,  dead: 645

May 28:  real: 16,733,  official: 16,628,  infectious: 16,733,  died: 23,  dead: 668

May 29:  real: 16,759,  official: 16,655,  infectious: 16,759,  died: 0,  dead: 668

May 30:  real: 16,771,  official: 16,685,  infectious: 16,771,  died: 0,  dead: 668

May 31:  real: 16,805,  official: 16,731,  infectious: 16,805,  died: 0,  dead: 668

Jun  1:  real: 16,843,  official: 16,733,  infectious: 16,843,  died: 0,  dead: 668

Jun  2:  real: 16,898,  official: 16,759,  infectious: 16,898,  died: 1,  dead: 669

Jun  3:  real: 16,902,  official: 16,771,  infectious: 16,902,  died: 1,  dead: 670

Jun  4:  real: 16,968,  official: 16,805,  infectious: 16,968,  died: 0,  dead: 670

Jun  5:  real: 16,979,  official: 16,843,  infectious: 16,979,  died: 2,  dead: 672

Jun  6:  real: 17,005,  official: 16,898,  infectious: 17,005,  died: 0,  dead: 672

Jun  7:  real: 17,034,  official: 16,902,  infectious: 17,034,  died: 0,  dead: 672

Jun  8:  real: 17,064,  official: 16,968,  infectious: 17,064,  died: 0,  dead: 672

Jun  9:  real: 17,078,  official: 16,979,  infectious: 17,078,  died: 0,  dead: 672

Jun 10:  real: 17,109,  official: 17,005,  infectious: 17,109,  died: 1,  dead: 673

Jun 11:  real: 17,135,  official: 17,034,  infectious: 17,135,  died: 1,  dead: 674

Jun 12:  real: 17,189,  official: 17,064,  infectious: 17,189,  died: 1,  dead: 675

Jun 13:  real: 17,203,  official: 17,078,  infectious: 17,203,  died: 2,  dead: 677

Jun 14:  real: 17,223,  official: 17,109,  infectious: 17,223,  died: 0,  dead: 677

Jun 15:  real: 17,271,  official: 17,135,  infectious: 17,271,  died: 1,  dead: 678

Jun 16:  real: 17,323,  official: 17,189,  infectious: 17,323,  died: 3,  dead: 681

Jun 17:  real: 17,341,  official: 17,203,  infectious: 17,341,  died: 6,  dead: 687

Jun 18:  real: 17,380,  official: 17,223,  infectious: 17,380,  died: 1,  dead: 688

Jun 19:  real: 17,408,  official: 17,271,  infectious: 17,408,  died: 0,  dead: 688

Jun 20:  real: 17,449,  official: 17,323,  infectious: 17,449,  died: 0,  dead: 688

Jun 21:  real: 17,477,  official: 17,341,  infectious: 17,477,  died: 2,  dead: 690

Jun 22:  real: 17,522,  official: 17,380,  infectious: 17,522,  died: 0,  dead: 690

Jun 23:  real: 17,580,  official: 17,408,  infectious: 17,580,  died: 3,  dead: 693

Jun 24:  real: 17,654,  official: 17,449,  infectious: 17,654,  died: 0,  dead: 693

Jun 25:  real: 17,723,  official: 17,477,  infectious: 17,723,  died: 5,  dead: 698

Jun 26:  real: 17,766,  official: 17,522,  infectious: 17,766,  died: 0,  dead: 698

Jun 27:  real: 17,873,  official: 17,580,  infectious: 17,873,  died: 2,  dead: 700

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 17,876,  official: 17,654,  infectious: 699,  died: 0,  dead: 700

Jun 29:  real: 17,879,  official: 17,723,  infectious: 779,  died: 0,  dead: 700

Jun 30:  real: 17,882,  official: 17,766,  infectious: 751,  died: 0,  dead: 700

Jul  1:  real: 17,885,  official: 17,873,  infectious: 736,  died: 0,  dead: 700

Jul  2:  real: 17,888,  official: 17,876,  infectious: 707,  died: 0,  dead: 700

Jul  3:  real: 17,891,  official: 17,879,  infectious: 680,  died: 0,  dead: 700

Jul  4:  real: 17,894,  official: 17,882,  infectious: 630,  died: 0,  dead: 700

Jul  5:  real: 17,897,  official: 17,885,  infectious: 609,  died: 1,  dead: 701

Jul  6:  real: 17,899,  official: 17,888,  infectious: 583,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul  7:  real: 17,901,  official: 17,891,  infectious: 539,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul  8:  real: 17,903,  official: 17,894,  infectious: 483,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul  9:  real: 17,905,  official: 17,897,  infectious: 469,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul 10:  real: 17,907,  official: 17,899,  infectious: 437,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul 11:  real: 17,909,  official: 17,901,  infectious: 415,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul 12:  real: 17,911,  official: 17,903,  infectious: 384,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul 13:  real: 17,912,  official: 17,905,  infectious: 362,  died: 0,  dead: 701

Jul 14:  real: 17,913,  official: 17,907,  infectious: 327,  died: 1,  dead: 702

Jul 15:  real: 17,914,  official: 17,909,  infectious: 280,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 16:  real: 17,915,  official: 17,911,  infectious: 220,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 17:  real: 17,916,  official: 17,912,  infectious: 164,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 18:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,913,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 19:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,914,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 20:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,915,  infectious: 41,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 21:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,916,  infectious: 38,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 22:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 23:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 24:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 25:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 26:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 27:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 28:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 29:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 30:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Jul 31:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  1:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  2:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  3:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  4:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  5:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  6:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  7:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  8:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug  9:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 10:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 11:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 12:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 13:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 14:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 15:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 16:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 17:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 18:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 19:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 20:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 21:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 22:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 23:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 24:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 25:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 26:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 27:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 28:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 29:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 30:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Aug 31:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  1:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  2:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  3:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  4:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  5:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  6:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  7:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  8:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep  9:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 10:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 11:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 12:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 13:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 14:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 15:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 16:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 17:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 18:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 19:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 20:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 21:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 22:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 23:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 24:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 25:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 26:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 27:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 28:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 29:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Sep 30:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  1:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  2:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  3:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  4:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  5:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  6:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  7:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  8:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct  9:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 10:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 11:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 12:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 13:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 14:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 15:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 16:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 17:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 18:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 19:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 20:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 21:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 22:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 23:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 24:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 25:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 26:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 27:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 28:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 29:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 30:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Oct 31:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  1:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  2:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  3:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  4:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  5:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  6:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  7:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  8:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov  9:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 10:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 11:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 12:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 13:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 14:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 15:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 16:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 17:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 18:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 19:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 20:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 21:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 22:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 23:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 24:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 25:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 26:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 27:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 28:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 29:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Nov 30:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  1:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  2:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  3:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  4:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  5:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  6:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  7:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  8:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec  9:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 10:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 11:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 12:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 13:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 14:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 15:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 16:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 17:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 18:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 19:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 20:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 21:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 22:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 23:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 24:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 25:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 26:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 27:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 28:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 29:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 30:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

Dec 31:  real: 17,917,  official: 17,917,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 702

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          1:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        702:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        702:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.41%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0041
Official uninf: 6,982,127 / Adult Pop.: 7,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.74%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0026
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.41%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0041