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COVID-19 Forecast for Angola, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
80 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Angola HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 80 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Angola run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Angola are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
         10:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
         10:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Angola COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.029, at 102.91% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 0,  official: 0,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 1,  official: 0,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 2,  official: 0,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 2,  official: 0,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 3,  official: 0,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 3,  official: 1,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 3,  official: 2,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 4,  official: 2,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 23:  real: 4,  official: 3,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 24:  real: 5,  official: 3,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 25:  real: 7,  official: 3,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 26:  real: 7,  official: 4,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 27:  real: 7,  official: 4,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 28:  real: 8,  official: 5,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 29:  real: 8,  official: 7,  infectious: 8,  died: 2,  dead: 2

Mar 30:  real: 8,  official: 7,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 31:  real: 10,  official: 7,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  1:  real: 14,  official: 8,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  2:  real: 16,  official: 8,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  3:  real: 17,  official: 8,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  4:  real: 19,  official: 10,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  5:  real: 19,  official: 14,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  6:  real: 19,  official: 16,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  7:  real: 19,  official: 17,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  8:  real: 19,  official: 19,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr  9:  real: 19,  official: 19,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 10:  real: 19,  official: 19,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 11:  real: 19,  official: 19,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 12:  real: 19,  official: 19,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 13:  real: 19,  official: 19,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 14:  real: 24,  official: 19,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 15:  real: 24,  official: 19,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 16:  real: 24,  official: 19,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 17:  real: 24,  official: 19,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 18:  real: 25,  official: 24,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 19:  real: 25,  official: 24,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 20:  real: 25,  official: 24,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 21:  real: 25,  official: 24,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 22:  real: 26,  official: 25,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 23:  real: 27,  official: 25,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 24:  real: 27,  official: 25,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 25:  real: 27,  official: 25,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 26:  real: 27,  official: 26,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 27:  real: 30,  official: 27,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 28:  real: 35,  official: 27,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 29:  real: 35,  official: 27,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Apr 30:  real: 35,  official: 27,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  1:  real: 36,  official: 30,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  2:  real: 36,  official: 35,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  3:  real: 36,  official: 35,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  4:  real: 43,  official: 35,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  5:  real: 43,  official: 36,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  6:  real: 43,  official: 36,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  7:  real: 45,  official: 36,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  8:  real: 45,  official: 43,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May  9:  real: 45,  official: 43,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 10:  real: 48,  official: 43,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 11:  real: 48,  official: 45,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 12:  real: 48,  official: 45,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 13:  real: 48,  official: 45,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 14:  real: 50,  official: 48,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 15:  real: 52,  official: 48,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 16:  real: 52,  official: 48,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 17:  real: 58,  official: 48,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 2

May 18:  real: 60,  official: 50,  infectious: 60,  died: 1,  dead: 3

May 19:  real: 61,  official: 52,  infectious: 61,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May 20:  real: 69,  official: 52,  infectious: 69,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May 21:  real: 70,  official: 58,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May 22:  real: 70,  official: 60,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 3

May 23:  real: 71,  official: 61,  infectious: 71,  died: 1,  dead: 4

May 24:  real: 74,  official: 69,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May 25:  real: 81,  official: 70,  infectious: 81,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May 26:  real: 84,  official: 70,  infectious: 84,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May 27:  real: 86,  official: 71,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May 28:  real: 86,  official: 74,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May 29:  real: 86,  official: 81,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May 30:  real: 86,  official: 84,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 4

May 31:  real: 86,  official: 86,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  1:  real: 86,  official: 86,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  2:  real: 88,  official: 86,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  3:  real: 91,  official: 86,  infectious: 91,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  4:  real: 92,  official: 86,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  5:  real: 96,  official: 86,  infectious: 96,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  6:  real: 113,  official: 88,  infectious: 113,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  7:  real: 118,  official: 91,  infectious: 118,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  8:  real: 130,  official: 92,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun  9:  real: 138,  official: 96,  infectious: 138,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun 10:  real: 140,  official: 113,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 4

Jun 11:  real: 142,  official: 118,  infectious: 142,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Jun 12:  real: 148,  official: 130,  infectious: 148,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Jun 13:  real: 155,  official: 138,  infectious: 155,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Jun 14:  real: 166,  official: 140,  infectious: 166,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Jun 15:  real: 172,  official: 142,  infectious: 172,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Jun 16:  real: 176,  official: 148,  infectious: 176,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Jun 17:  real: 183,  official: 155,  infectious: 183,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Jun 18:  real: 186,  official: 166,  infectious: 186,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Jun 19:  real: 189,  official: 172,  infectious: 189,  died: 0,  dead: 8

Jun 20:  real: 197,  official: 176,  infectious: 197,  died: 1,  dead: 9

Jun 21:  real: 212,  official: 183,  infectious: 212,  died: 0,  dead: 9

Jun 22:  real: 212,  official: 186,  infectious: 212,  died: 1,  dead: 10

Jun 23:  real: 259,  official: 189,  infectious: 259,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jun 24:  real: 267,  official: 197,  infectious: 267,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jun 25:  real: 276,  official: 212,  infectious: 276,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jun 26:  real: 284,  official: 212,  infectious: 284,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jun 27:  real: 291,  official: 259,  infectious: 291,  died: 0,  dead: 10

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 296,  official: 267,  infectious: 165,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jun 29:  real: 301,  official: 276,  infectious: 167,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jun 30:  real: 306,  official: 284,  infectious: 161,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  1:  real: 311,  official: 291,  infectious: 158,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  2:  real: 316,  official: 296,  infectious: 159,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  3:  real: 321,  official: 301,  infectious: 161,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  4:  real: 325,  official: 306,  infectious: 153,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  5:  real: 329,  official: 311,  infectious: 151,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  6:  real: 333,  official: 316,  infectious: 144,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  7:  real: 337,  official: 321,  infectious: 141,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  8:  real: 341,  official: 325,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul  9:  real: 345,  official: 329,  infectious: 138,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 10:  real: 349,  official: 333,  infectious: 139,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 11:  real: 353,  official: 337,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 12:  real: 357,  official: 341,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 13:  real: 361,  official: 345,  infectious: 128,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 14:  real: 365,  official: 349,  infectious: 132,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 15:  real: 368,  official: 353,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 16:  real: 371,  official: 357,  infectious: 95,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 17:  real: 374,  official: 361,  infectious: 90,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 18:  real: 377,  official: 365,  infectious: 86,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 19:  real: 379,  official: 368,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 20:  real: 381,  official: 371,  infectious: 81,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 21:  real: 383,  official: 374,  infectious: 78,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 22:  real: 385,  official: 377,  infectious: 75,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 23:  real: 387,  official: 379,  infectious: 72,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 24:  real: 389,  official: 381,  infectious: 69,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 25:  real: 391,  official: 383,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 26:  real: 393,  official: 385,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 27:  real: 395,  official: 387,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 28:  real: 397,  official: 389,  infectious: 60,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 29:  real: 399,  official: 391,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 30:  real: 401,  official: 393,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Jul 31:  real: 403,  official: 395,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  1:  real: 405,  official: 397,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  2:  real: 406,  official: 399,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  3:  real: 407,  official: 401,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  4:  real: 408,  official: 403,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  5:  real: 409,  official: 405,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  6:  real: 410,  official: 406,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  7:  real: 411,  official: 407,  infectious: 38,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  8:  real: 412,  official: 408,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug  9:  real: 413,  official: 409,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 10:  real: 414,  official: 410,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 11:  real: 415,  official: 411,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 12:  real: 416,  official: 412,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 13:  real: 417,  official: 413,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 14:  real: 418,  official: 414,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 15:  real: 419,  official: 415,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 16:  real: 420,  official: 416,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 17:  real: 421,  official: 417,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 18:  real: 422,  official: 418,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 19:  real: 423,  official: 419,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 20:  real: 424,  official: 420,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 21:  real: 425,  official: 421,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 22:  real: 426,  official: 422,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 23:  real: 427,  official: 423,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 24:  real: 428,  official: 424,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 25:  real: 429,  official: 425,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 26:  real: 430,  official: 426,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 27:  real: 431,  official: 427,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 28:  real: 432,  official: 428,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 29:  real: 433,  official: 429,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 30:  real: 434,  official: 430,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Aug 31:  real: 435,  official: 431,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  1:  real: 436,  official: 432,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  2:  real: 437,  official: 433,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  3:  real: 438,  official: 434,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  4:  real: 439,  official: 435,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  5:  real: 440,  official: 436,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  6:  real: 441,  official: 437,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  7:  real: 442,  official: 438,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  8:  real: 443,  official: 439,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep  9:  real: 444,  official: 440,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 10:  real: 445,  official: 441,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 11:  real: 446,  official: 442,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 12:  real: 447,  official: 443,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 13:  real: 448,  official: 444,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 14:  real: 449,  official: 445,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 15:  real: 450,  official: 446,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 16:  real: 451,  official: 447,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 17:  real: 452,  official: 448,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 18:  real: 453,  official: 449,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 19:  real: 454,  official: 450,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 20:  real: 455,  official: 451,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 21:  real: 456,  official: 452,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 22:  real: 457,  official: 453,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 23:  real: 458,  official: 454,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 24:  real: 459,  official: 455,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 25:  real: 460,  official: 456,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 26:  real: 461,  official: 457,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 27:  real: 462,  official: 458,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 28:  real: 463,  official: 459,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 29:  real: 464,  official: 460,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Sep 30:  real: 465,  official: 461,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  1:  real: 466,  official: 462,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  2:  real: 467,  official: 463,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  3:  real: 468,  official: 464,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  4:  real: 469,  official: 465,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  5:  real: 470,  official: 466,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  6:  real: 471,  official: 467,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  7:  real: 472,  official: 468,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  8:  real: 473,  official: 469,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct  9:  real: 474,  official: 470,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 10:  real: 475,  official: 471,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 11:  real: 476,  official: 472,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 12:  real: 477,  official: 473,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 13:  real: 478,  official: 474,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 14:  real: 479,  official: 475,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 15:  real: 480,  official: 476,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 16:  real: 481,  official: 477,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 17:  real: 482,  official: 478,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 18:  real: 483,  official: 479,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 19:  real: 484,  official: 480,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 20:  real: 485,  official: 481,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 21:  real: 486,  official: 482,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 22:  real: 487,  official: 483,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 23:  real: 488,  official: 484,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 24:  real: 489,  official: 485,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 25:  real: 490,  official: 486,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 26:  real: 491,  official: 487,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 27:  real: 492,  official: 488,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 28:  real: 493,  official: 489,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 29:  real: 494,  official: 490,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 30:  real: 495,  official: 491,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Oct 31:  real: 496,  official: 492,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  1:  real: 497,  official: 493,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  2:  real: 498,  official: 494,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  3:  real: 499,  official: 495,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  4:  real: 500,  official: 496,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  5:  real: 501,  official: 497,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  6:  real: 502,  official: 498,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  7:  real: 503,  official: 499,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  8:  real: 504,  official: 500,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov  9:  real: 505,  official: 501,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 10:  real: 506,  official: 502,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 11:  real: 507,  official: 503,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 12:  real: 508,  official: 504,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 13:  real: 509,  official: 505,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 14:  real: 510,  official: 506,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 15:  real: 511,  official: 507,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 16:  real: 512,  official: 508,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 17:  real: 513,  official: 509,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 18:  real: 514,  official: 510,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 19:  real: 515,  official: 511,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 20:  real: 516,  official: 512,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 21:  real: 517,  official: 513,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 22:  real: 518,  official: 514,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 23:  real: 519,  official: 515,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 24:  real: 520,  official: 516,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 25:  real: 521,  official: 517,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 26:  real: 522,  official: 518,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 27:  real: 523,  official: 519,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 28:  real: 524,  official: 520,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 29:  real: 525,  official: 521,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Nov 30:  real: 526,  official: 522,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  1:  real: 527,  official: 523,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  2:  real: 528,  official: 524,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  3:  real: 529,  official: 525,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  4:  real: 530,  official: 526,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  5:  real: 531,  official: 527,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  6:  real: 532,  official: 528,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  7:  real: 533,  official: 529,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  8:  real: 534,  official: 530,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec  9:  real: 535,  official: 531,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 10:  real: 536,  official: 532,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 11:  real: 537,  official: 533,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 12:  real: 538,  official: 534,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 13:  real: 539,  official: 535,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 14:  real: 540,  official: 536,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 15:  real: 541,  official: 537,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 16:  real: 542,  official: 538,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 17:  real: 543,  official: 539,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 18:  real: 544,  official: 540,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 19:  real: 545,  official: 541,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 20:  real: 546,  official: 542,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 21:  real: 547,  official: 543,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 22:  real: 548,  official: 544,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 23:  real: 549,  official: 545,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 24:  real: 550,  official: 546,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 25:  real: 551,  official: 547,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 26:  real: 552,  official: 548,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 27:  real: 553,  official: 549,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 28:  real: 554,  official: 550,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 29:  real: 555,  official: 551,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 30:  real: 556,  official: 552,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

Dec 31:  real: 557,  official: 553,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 10

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
         10:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
         10:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.91%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0291
Official uninf: 19,999,709 / Adult Pop.: 20,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 100.00%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0000
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.91%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0291