COVID-19 Forecast for Egypt, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
101 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Egypt HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 101 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Egypt run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Egypt are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       100 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         61:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        773:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      2,886:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,659:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Egypt COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.023, at 102.31% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 3,  official: 2,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 15,  official: 2,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 48,  official: 2,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 55,  official: 2,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 59,  official: 3,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 59,  official: 15,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 67,  official: 48,  infectious: 67,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 80,  official: 55,  infectious: 80,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  9:  real: 93,  official: 59,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 10:  real: 110,  official: 59,  infectious: 110,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 11:  real: 126,  official: 67,  infectious: 126,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 12:  real: 166,  official: 80,  infectious: 166,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 13:  real: 196,  official: 93,  infectious: 196,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 14:  real: 210,  official: 110,  infectious: 210,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 15:  real: 256,  official: 126,  infectious: 256,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 16:  real: 285,  official: 166,  infectious: 285,  died: 2,  dead: 4

Mar 17:  real: 294,  official: 196,  infectious: 294,  died: 2,  dead: 6

Mar 18:  real: 327,  official: 210,  infectious: 327,  died: 0,  dead: 6

Mar 19:  real: 366,  official: 256,  infectious: 366,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Mar 20:  real: 402,  official: 285,  infectious: 402,  died: 1,  dead: 8

Mar 21:  real: 456,  official: 294,  infectious: 456,  died: 2,  dead: 10

Mar 22:  real: 495,  official: 327,  infectious: 495,  died: 4,  dead: 14

Mar 23:  real: 536,  official: 366,  infectious: 536,  died: 5,  dead: 19

Mar 24:  real: 576,  official: 402,  infectious: 576,  died: 1,  dead: 20

Mar 25:  real: 609,  official: 456,  infectious: 609,  died: 1,  dead: 21

Mar 26:  real: 656,  official: 495,  infectious: 656,  died: 3,  dead: 24

Mar 27:  real: 710,  official: 536,  infectious: 710,  died: 6,  dead: 30

Mar 28:  real: 779,  official: 576,  infectious: 779,  died: 6,  dead: 36

Mar 29:  real: 865,  official: 609,  infectious: 865,  died: 4,  dead: 40

Mar 30:  real: 985,  official: 656,  infectious: 985,  died: 1,  dead: 41

Mar 31:  real: 1,070,  official: 710,  infectious: 1,070,  died: 5,  dead: 46

Apr  1:  real: 1,173,  official: 779,  infectious: 1,173,  died: 6,  dead: 52

Apr  2:  real: 1,322,  official: 865,  infectious: 1,322,  died: 6,  dead: 58

Apr  3:  real: 1,450,  official: 985,  infectious: 1,450,  died: 8,  dead: 66

Apr  4:  real: 1,560,  official: 1,070,  infectious: 1,560,  died: 5,  dead: 71

Apr  5:  real: 1,699,  official: 1,173,  infectious: 1,699,  died: 7,  dead: 78

Apr  6:  real: 1,794,  official: 1,322,  infectious: 1,794,  died: 7,  dead: 85

Apr  7:  real: 1,939,  official: 1,450,  infectious: 1,939,  died: 9,  dead: 94

Apr  8:  real: 2,065,  official: 1,560,  infectious: 2,065,  died: 9,  dead: 103

Apr  9:  real: 2,190,  official: 1,699,  infectious: 2,190,  died: 15,  dead: 118

Apr 10:  real: 2,350,  official: 1,794,  infectious: 2,350,  died: 17,  dead: 135

Apr 11:  real: 2,505,  official: 1,939,  infectious: 2,505,  died: 11,  dead: 146

Apr 12:  real: 2,673,  official: 2,065,  infectious: 2,673,  died: 13,  dead: 159

Apr 13:  real: 2,844,  official: 2,190,  infectious: 2,844,  died: 5,  dead: 164

Apr 14:  real: 3,032,  official: 2,350,  infectious: 3,032,  died: 14,  dead: 178

Apr 15:  real: 3,144,  official: 2,505,  infectious: 3,144,  died: 5,  dead: 183

Apr 16:  real: 3,333,  official: 2,673,  infectious: 3,333,  died: 13,  dead: 196

Apr 17:  real: 3,490,  official: 2,844,  infectious: 3,490,  died: 9,  dead: 205

Apr 18:  real: 3,659,  official: 3,032,  infectious: 3,659,  died: 19,  dead: 224

Apr 19:  real: 3,891,  official: 3,144,  infectious: 3,891,  died: 15,  dead: 239

Apr 20:  real: 4,092,  official: 3,333,  infectious: 4,092,  died: 11,  dead: 250

Apr 21:  real: 4,319,  official: 3,490,  infectious: 4,319,  died: 14,  dead: 264

Apr 22:  real: 4,534,  official: 3,659,  infectious: 4,534,  died: 12,  dead: 276

Apr 23:  real: 4,782,  official: 3,891,  infectious: 4,782,  died: 11,  dead: 287

Apr 24:  real: 5,042,  official: 4,092,  infectious: 5,042,  died: 7,  dead: 294

Apr 25:  real: 5,268,  official: 4,319,  infectious: 5,268,  died: 13,  dead: 307

Apr 26:  real: 5,537,  official: 4,534,  infectious: 5,537,  died: 10,  dead: 317

Apr 27:  real: 5,895,  official: 4,782,  infectious: 5,895,  died: 20,  dead: 337

Apr 28:  real: 6,193,  official: 5,042,  infectious: 6,193,  died: 22,  dead: 359

Apr 29:  real: 6,465,  official: 5,268,  infectious: 6,465,  died: 21,  dead: 380

Apr 30:  real: 6,813,  official: 5,537,  infectious: 6,813,  died: 12,  dead: 392

May  1:  real: 7,201,  official: 5,895,  infectious: 7,201,  died: 14,  dead: 406

May  2:  real: 7,588,  official: 6,193,  infectious: 7,588,  died: 9,  dead: 415

May  3:  real: 7,981,  official: 6,465,  infectious: 7,981,  died: 14,  dead: 429

May  4:  real: 8,476,  official: 6,813,  infectious: 8,476,  died: 7,  dead: 436

May  5:  real: 8,964,  official: 7,201,  infectious: 8,964,  died: 16,  dead: 452

May  6:  real: 9,400,  official: 7,588,  infectious: 9,400,  died: 17,  dead: 469

May  7:  real: 9,746,  official: 7,981,  infectious: 9,746,  died: 13,  dead: 482

May  8:  real: 10,093,  official: 8,476,  infectious: 10,093,  died: 21,  dead: 503

May  9:  real: 10,431,  official: 8,964,  infectious: 10,431,  died: 11,  dead: 514

May 10:  real: 10,829,  official: 9,400,  infectious: 10,829,  died: 11,  dead: 525

May 11:  real: 11,228,  official: 9,746,  infectious: 11,228,  died: 8,  dead: 533

May 12:  real: 11,719,  official: 10,093,  infectious: 11,719,  died: 11,  dead: 544

May 13:  real: 12,229,  official: 10,431,  infectious: 12,229,  died: 12,  dead: 556

May 14:  real: 12,764,  official: 10,829,  infectious: 12,764,  died: 15,  dead: 571

May 15:  real: 13,484,  official: 11,228,  infectious: 13,484,  died: 21,  dead: 592

May 16:  real: 14,229,  official: 11,719,  infectious: 14,229,  died: 20,  dead: 612

May 17:  real: 15,003,  official: 12,229,  infectious: 15,003,  died: 18,  dead: 630

May 18:  real: 15,786,  official: 12,764,  infectious: 15,786,  died: 15,  dead: 645

May 19:  real: 16,513,  official: 13,484,  infectious: 16,513,  died: 14,  dead: 659

May 20:  real: 17,265,  official: 14,229,  infectious: 17,265,  died: 21,  dead: 680

May 21:  real: 17,967,  official: 15,003,  infectious: 17,967,  died: 16,  dead: 696

May 22:  real: 18,756,  official: 15,786,  infectious: 18,756,  died: 11,  dead: 707

May 23:  real: 19,666,  official: 16,513,  infectious: 19,666,  died: 28,  dead: 735

May 24:  real: 20,793,  official: 17,265,  infectious: 20,793,  died: 29,  dead: 764

May 25:  real: 22,082,  official: 17,967,  infectious: 22,082,  died: 19,  dead: 783

May 26:  real: 23,449,  official: 18,756,  infectious: 23,449,  died: 14,  dead: 797

May 27:  real: 24,985,  official: 19,666,  infectious: 24,985,  died: 19,  dead: 816

May 28:  real: 26,384,  official: 20,793,  infectious: 26,384,  died: 29,  dead: 845

May 29:  real: 27,536,  official: 22,082,  infectious: 27,536,  died: 34,  dead: 879

May 30:  real: 28,615,  official: 23,449,  infectious: 28,615,  died: 34,  dead: 913

May 31:  real: 29,767,  official: 24,985,  infectious: 29,767,  died: 46,  dead: 959

Jun  1:  real: 31,115,  official: 26,384,  infectious: 31,115,  died: 46,  dead: 1,005

Jun  2:  real: 32,612,  official: 27,536,  infectious: 32,612,  died: 47,  dead: 1,052

Jun  3:  real: 34,079,  official: 28,615,  infectious: 34,079,  died: 36,  dead: 1,088

Jun  4:  real: 35,444,  official: 29,767,  infectious: 35,444,  died: 38,  dead: 1,126

Jun  5:  real: 36,829,  official: 31,115,  infectious: 36,829,  died: 40,  dead: 1,166

Jun  6:  real: 38,284,  official: 32,612,  infectious: 38,284,  died: 32,  dead: 1,198

Jun  7:  real: 39,726,  official: 34,079,  infectious: 39,726,  died: 39,  dead: 1,237

Jun  8:  real: 41,303,  official: 35,444,  infectious: 41,303,  died: 34,  dead: 1,271

Jun  9:  real: 42,980,  official: 36,829,  infectious: 42,980,  died: 35,  dead: 1,306

Jun 10:  real: 44,598,  official: 38,284,  infectious: 44,598,  died: 36,  dead: 1,342

Jun 11:  real: 46,289,  official: 39,726,  infectious: 46,289,  died: 35,  dead: 1,377

Jun 12:  real: 47,856,  official: 41,303,  infectious: 47,856,  died: 45,  dead: 1,422

Jun 13:  real: 49,219,  official: 42,980,  infectious: 49,219,  died: 62,  dead: 1,484

Jun 14:  real: 50,437,  official: 44,598,  infectious: 50,437,  died: 91,  dead: 1,575

Jun 15:  real: 52,211,  official: 46,289,  infectious: 52,211,  died: 97,  dead: 1,672

Jun 16:  real: 53,758,  official: 47,856,  infectious: 53,758,  died: 94,  dead: 1,766

Jun 17:  real: 55,233,  official: 49,219,  infectious: 55,233,  died: 84,  dead: 1,850

Jun 18:  real: 56,809,  official: 50,437,  infectious: 56,809,  died: 88,  dead: 1,938

Jun 19:  real: 58,141,  official: 52,211,  infectious: 58,141,  died: 79,  dead: 2,017

Jun 20:  real: 59,561,  official: 53,758,  infectious: 59,561,  died: 89,  dead: 2,106

Jun 21:  real: 61,130,  official: 55,233,  infectious: 61,130,  died: 87,  dead: 2,193

Jun 22:  real: 62,755,  official: 56,809,  infectious: 62,755,  died: 85,  dead: 2,278

Jun 23:  real: 63,923,  official: 58,141,  infectious: 63,923,  died: 87,  dead: 2,365

Jun 24:  real: 65,188,  official: 59,561,  infectious: 65,188,  died: 85,  dead: 2,450

Jun 25:  real: 66,754,  official: 61,130,  infectious: 66,754,  died: 83,  dead: 2,533

Jun 26:  real: 68,311,  official: 62,755,  infectious: 68,311,  died: 87,  dead: 2,620

Jun 27:  real: 69,814,  official: 63,923,  infectious: 69,814,  died: 88,  dead: 2,708

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 70,416,  official: 65,188,  infectious: 26,018,  died: 19,  dead: 2,727


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 71,025,  official: 66,754,  infectious: 26,327,  died: 22,  dead: 2,749

Jun 30:  real: 71,614,  official: 68,311,  infectious: 25,468,  died: 22,  dead: 2,771

Jul  1:  real: 72,181,  official: 69,814,  infectious: 24,522,  died: 15,  dead: 2,786

Jul  2:  real: 72,726,  official: 70,416,  infectious: 23,583,  died: 17,  dead: 2,803

Jul  3:  real: 73,247,  official: 71,025,  infectious: 22,518,  died: 57,  dead: 2,860

Jul  4:  real: 73,746,  official: 71,614,  infectious: 21,593,  died: 61,  dead: 2,921

Jul  5:  real: 74,227,  official: 72,181,  infectious: 20,793,  died: 61,  dead: 2,982

Jul  6:  real: 74,691,  official: 72,726,  infectious: 20,055,  died: 29,  dead: 3,011

Jul  7:  real: 75,127,  official: 73,247,  infectious: 18,853,  died: 32,  dead: 3,043

Jul  8:  real: 75,539,  official: 73,746,  infectious: 17,816,  died: 39,  dead: 3,082

Jul  9:  real: 75,931,  official: 74,227,  infectious: 16,942,  died: 39,  dead: 3,121

Jul 10:  real: 76,300,  official: 74,691,  infectious: 15,964,  died: 38,  dead: 3,159

Jul 11:  real: 76,651,  official: 75,127,  infectious: 15,171,  died: 30,  dead: 3,189

Jul 12:  real: 76,981,  official: 75,539,  infectious: 14,288,  died: 31,  dead: 3,220

Jul 13:  real: 77,288,  official: 75,931,  infectious: 13,272,  died: 30,  dead: 3,250

Jul 14:  real: 77,570,  official: 76,300,  infectious: 12,196,  died: 28,  dead: 3,278

Jul 15:  real: 77,835,  official: 76,651,  infectious: 11,466,  died: 27,  dead: 3,305

Jul 16:  real: 78,081,  official: 76,981,  infectious: 10,638,  died: 26,  dead: 3,331

Jul 17:  real: 78,302,  official: 77,288,  infectious: 9,554,  died: 25,  dead: 3,356

Jul 18:  real: 78,498,  official: 77,570,  infectious: 8,464,  died: 24,  dead: 3,380

Jul 19:  real: 78,669,  official: 77,835,  infectious: 7,397,  died: 23,  dead: 3,403

Jul 20:  real: 78,832,  official: 78,081,  infectious: 7,030,  died: 22,  dead: 3,425

Jul 21:  real: 78,985,  official: 78,302,  infectious: 6,638,  died: 21,  dead: 3,446

Jul 22:  real: 79,130,  official: 78,498,  infectious: 6,258,  died: 19,  dead: 3,465

Jul 23:  real: 79,266,  official: 78,669,  infectious: 5,889,  died: 18,  dead: 3,483

Jul 24:  real: 79,394,  official: 78,832,  infectious: 5,535,  died: 17,  dead: 3,500

Jul 25:  real: 79,514,  official: 78,985,  infectious: 5,195,  died: 16,  dead: 3,516

Jul 26:  real: 79,627,  official: 79,130,  infectious: 4,869,  died: 15,  dead: 3,531

Jul 27:  real: 79,732,  official: 79,266,  infectious: 4,553,  died: 14,  dead: 3,545

Jul 28:  real: 79,830,  official: 79,394,  infectious: 4,249,  died: 13,  dead: 3,558

Jul 29:  real: 79,922,  official: 79,514,  infectious: 3,963,  died: 12,  dead: 3,570

Jul 30:  real: 80,007,  official: 79,627,  infectious: 3,695,  died: 11,  dead: 3,581

Jul 31:  real: 80,087,  official: 79,732,  infectious: 3,439,  died: 9,  dead: 3,590

Aug  1:  real: 80,161,  official: 79,830,  infectious: 3,197,  died: 8,  dead: 3,598

Aug  2:  real: 80,230,  official: 79,922,  infectious: 2,966,  died: 8,  dead: 3,606

Aug  3:  real: 80,294,  official: 80,007,  infectious: 2,748,  died: 7,  dead: 3,613


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Aug  4:  real: 80,353,  official: 80,087,  infectious: 2,544,  died: 7,  dead: 3,620

Aug  5:  real: 80,407,  official: 80,161,  infectious: 2,354,  died: 6,  dead: 3,626

Aug  6:  real: 80,457,  official: 80,230,  infectious: 2,173,  died: 6,  dead: 3,632

Aug  7:  real: 80,503,  official: 80,294,  infectious: 2,004,  died: 6,  dead: 3,638

Aug  8:  real: 80,546,  official: 80,353,  infectious: 1,858,  died: 0,  dead: 3,638

Aug  9:  real: 80,586,  official: 80,407,  infectious: 1,729,  died: 0,  dead: 3,638

Aug 10:  real: 80,623,  official: 80,457,  infectious: 1,618,  died: 0,  dead: 3,638

Aug 11:  real: 80,658,  official: 80,503,  infectious: 1,513,  died: 0,  dead: 3,638

Aug 12:  real: 80,691,  official: 80,546,  infectious: 1,412,  died: 2,  dead: 3,640

Aug 13:  real: 80,721,  official: 80,586,  infectious: 1,317,  died: 2,  dead: 3,642

Aug 14:  real: 80,749,  official: 80,623,  infectious: 1,228,  died: 2,  dead: 3,644

Aug 15:  real: 80,775,  official: 80,658,  infectious: 1,145,  died: 2,  dead: 3,646

Aug 16:  real: 80,800,  official: 80,691,  infectious: 1,066,  died: 2,  dead: 3,648

Aug 17:  real: 80,823,  official: 80,721,  infectious: 991,  died: 2,  dead: 3,650

Aug 18:  real: 80,844,  official: 80,749,  infectious: 923,  died: 1,  dead: 3,651

Aug 19:  real: 80,864,  official: 80,775,  infectious: 858,  died: 1,  dead: 3,652

Aug 20:  real: 80,882,  official: 80,800,  infectious: 798,  died: 1,  dead: 3,653

Aug 21:  real: 80,899,  official: 80,823,  infectious: 743,  died: 1,  dead: 3,654

Aug 22:  real: 80,915,  official: 80,844,  infectious: 690,  died: 1,  dead: 3,655

Aug 23:  real: 80,930,  official: 80,864,  infectious: 642,  died: 1,  dead: 3,656

Aug 24:  real: 80,944,  official: 80,882,  infectious: 597,  died: 1,  dead: 3,657

Aug 25:  real: 80,957,  official: 80,899,  infectious: 555,  died: 1,  dead: 3,658

Aug 26:  real: 80,969,  official: 80,915,  infectious: 517,  died: 1,  dead: 3,659

Aug 27:  real: 80,980,  official: 80,930,  infectious: 482,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Aug 28:  real: 80,990,  official: 80,944,  infectious: 449,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Aug 29:  real: 81,000,  official: 80,957,  infectious: 418,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Aug 30:  real: 81,009,  official: 80,969,  infectious: 391,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Aug 31:  real: 81,017,  official: 80,980,  infectious: 366,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  1:  real: 81,025,  official: 80,990,  infectious: 342,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  2:  real: 81,032,  official: 81,000,  infectious: 319,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  3:  real: 81,039,  official: 81,009,  infectious: 297,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  4:  real: 81,045,  official: 81,017,  infectious: 277,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  5:  real: 81,051,  official: 81,025,  infectious: 260,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  6:  real: 81,057,  official: 81,032,  infectious: 243,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  7:  real: 81,062,  official: 81,039,  infectious: 227,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  8:  real: 81,067,  official: 81,045,  infectious: 213,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep  9:  real: 81,072,  official: 81,051,  infectious: 200,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 10:  real: 81,076,  official: 81,057,  infectious: 187,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 11:  real: 81,080,  official: 81,062,  infectious: 175,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 12:  real: 81,084,  official: 81,067,  infectious: 163,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 13:  real: 81,088,  official: 81,072,  infectious: 152,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 14:  real: 81,091,  official: 81,076,  infectious: 142,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 15:  real: 81,094,  official: 81,080,  infectious: 134,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 16:  real: 81,097,  official: 81,084,  infectious: 125,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 17:  real: 81,100,  official: 81,088,  infectious: 117,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 18:  real: 81,103,  official: 81,091,  infectious: 110,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 19:  real: 81,105,  official: 81,094,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 20:  real: 81,107,  official: 81,097,  infectious: 98,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 21:  real: 81,109,  official: 81,100,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 22:  real: 81,111,  official: 81,103,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 23:  real: 81,113,  official: 81,105,  infectious: 82,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 24:  real: 81,115,  official: 81,107,  infectious: 78,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 25:  real: 81,117,  official: 81,109,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 26:  real: 81,119,  official: 81,111,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 27:  real: 81,121,  official: 81,113,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 28:  real: 81,122,  official: 81,115,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 29:  real: 81,123,  official: 81,117,  infectious: 59,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Sep 30:  real: 81,124,  official: 81,119,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  1:  real: 81,125,  official: 81,121,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  2:  real: 81,126,  official: 81,122,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  3:  real: 81,127,  official: 81,123,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  4:  real: 81,128,  official: 81,124,  infectious: 42,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  5:  real: 81,129,  official: 81,125,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  6:  real: 81,130,  official: 81,126,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  7:  real: 81,131,  official: 81,127,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  8:  real: 81,132,  official: 81,128,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct  9:  real: 81,133,  official: 81,129,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 10:  real: 81,134,  official: 81,130,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 11:  real: 81,135,  official: 81,131,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 12:  real: 81,136,  official: 81,132,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 13:  real: 81,137,  official: 81,133,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 14:  real: 81,138,  official: 81,134,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 15:  real: 81,139,  official: 81,135,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 16:  real: 81,140,  official: 81,136,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 17:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,137,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 18:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,138,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 19:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,139,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 20:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,140,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 21:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 22:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 23:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 24:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 25:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 26:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 27:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 28:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 29:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 30:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Oct 31:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  1:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  2:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  3:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  4:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  5:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  6:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  7:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  8:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov  9:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 10:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 11:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 12:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 13:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 14:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 15:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 16:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 17:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 18:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 19:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 20:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 21:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 22:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 23:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 24:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 25:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 26:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 27:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 28:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 29:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Nov 30:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  1:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  2:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  3:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  4:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  5:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  6:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  7:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  8:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec  9:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 10:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 11:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 12:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 13:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 14:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 15:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 16:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 17:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 18:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 19:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 20:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 21:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 22:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 23:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 24:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 25:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 26:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 27:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 28:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 29:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 30:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

Dec 31:  real: 81,141,  official: 81,141,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,659

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF       100 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         61:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
        773:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      2,886:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,659:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.31%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0231
Official uninf: 71,930,186 / Adult Pop.: 72,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.90%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0010
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.31%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0231