COVID-19 Forecast for Philippines, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
84 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Philippines HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 84 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Philippines run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Philippines are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         14:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,596:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,596:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Philippines COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.028, at 102.79% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 3,  official: 3,  infectious: 3,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  2:  real: 5,  official: 3,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  3:  real: 6,  official: 3,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  4:  real: 10,  official: 3,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  5:  real: 24,  official: 3,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  6:  real: 33,  official: 5,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  7:  real: 49,  official: 6,  infectious: 49,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  8:  real: 52,  official: 10,  infectious: 52,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar  9:  real: 64,  official: 24,  infectious: 64,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 10:  real: 111,  official: 33,  infectious: 111,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 11:  real: 140,  official: 49,  infectious: 140,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 12:  real: 142,  official: 52,  infectious: 142,  died: 3,  dead: 5

Mar 13:  real: 187,  official: 64,  infectious: 187,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 14:  real: 202,  official: 111,  infectious: 202,  died: 3,  dead: 8

Mar 15:  real: 217,  official: 140,  infectious: 217,  died: 4,  dead: 12

Mar 16:  real: 230,  official: 142,  infectious: 230,  died: 0,  dead: 12

Mar 17:  real: 307,  official: 187,  infectious: 307,  died: 2,  dead: 14

Mar 18:  real: 380,  official: 202,  infectious: 380,  died: 3,  dead: 17

Mar 19:  real: 462,  official: 217,  infectious: 462,  died: 0,  dead: 17

Mar 20:  real: 552,  official: 230,  infectious: 552,  died: 1,  dead: 18

Mar 21:  real: 636,  official: 307,  infectious: 636,  died: 1,  dead: 19

Mar 22:  real: 707,  official: 380,  infectious: 707,  died: 6,  dead: 25

Mar 23:  real: 803,  official: 462,  infectious: 803,  died: 8,  dead: 33

Mar 24:  real: 1,075,  official: 552,  infectious: 1,075,  died: 2,  dead: 35

Mar 25:  real: 1,418,  official: 636,  infectious: 1,418,  died: 3,  dead: 38

Mar 26:  real: 1,546,  official: 707,  infectious: 1,546,  died: 7,  dead: 45

Mar 27:  real: 2,084,  official: 803,  infectious: 2,084,  died: 9,  dead: 54

Mar 28:  real: 2,311,  official: 1,075,  infectious: 2,311,  died: 14,  dead: 68

Mar 29:  real: 2,633,  official: 1,418,  infectious: 2,633,  died: 3,  dead: 71

Mar 30:  real: 3,018,  official: 1,546,  infectious: 3,018,  died: 7,  dead: 78

Mar 31:  real: 3,094,  official: 2,084,  infectious: 3,094,  died: 10,  dead: 88

Apr  1:  real: 3,246,  official: 2,311,  infectious: 3,246,  died: 8,  dead: 96

Apr  2:  real: 3,660,  official: 2,633,  infectious: 3,660,  died: 11,  dead: 107

Apr  3:  real: 3,764,  official: 3,018,  infectious: 3,764,  died: 29,  dead: 136

Apr  4:  real: 3,870,  official: 3,094,  infectious: 3,870,  died: 8,  dead: 144

Apr  5:  real: 4,076,  official: 3,246,  infectious: 4,076,  died: 8,  dead: 152

Apr  6:  real: 4,195,  official: 3,660,  infectious: 4,195,  died: 11,  dead: 163

Apr  7:  real: 4,428,  official: 3,764,  infectious: 4,428,  died: 14,  dead: 177

Apr  8:  real: 4,648,  official: 3,870,  infectious: 4,648,  died: 5,  dead: 182

Apr  9:  real: 4,932,  official: 4,076,  infectious: 4,932,  died: 21,  dead: 203

Apr 10:  real: 5,223,  official: 4,195,  infectious: 5,223,  died: 18,  dead: 221

Apr 11:  real: 5,453,  official: 4,428,  infectious: 5,453,  died: 26,  dead: 247

Apr 12:  real: 5,660,  official: 4,648,  infectious: 5,660,  died: 50,  dead: 297

Apr 13:  real: 5,878,  official: 4,932,  infectious: 5,878,  died: 18,  dead: 315

Apr 14:  real: 6,087,  official: 5,223,  infectious: 6,087,  died: 20,  dead: 335

Apr 15:  real: 6,259,  official: 5,453,  infectious: 6,259,  died: 14,  dead: 349

Apr 16:  real: 6,459,  official: 5,660,  infectious: 6,459,  died: 13,  dead: 362

Apr 17:  real: 6,599,  official: 5,878,  infectious: 6,599,  died: 25,  dead: 387

Apr 18:  real: 6,710,  official: 6,087,  infectious: 6,710,  died: 10,  dead: 397

Apr 19:  real: 6,981,  official: 6,259,  infectious: 6,981,  died: 12,  dead: 409

Apr 20:  real: 7,192,  official: 6,459,  infectious: 7,192,  died: 19,  dead: 428

Apr 21:  real: 7,294,  official: 6,599,  infectious: 7,294,  died: 9,  dead: 437

Apr 22:  real: 7,579,  official: 6,710,  infectious: 7,579,  died: 9,  dead: 446

Apr 23:  real: 7,777,  official: 6,981,  infectious: 7,777,  died: 16,  dead: 462

Apr 24:  real: 7,958,  official: 7,192,  infectious: 7,958,  died: 15,  dead: 477

Apr 25:  real: 8,212,  official: 7,294,  infectious: 8,212,  died: 17,  dead: 494

Apr 26:  real: 8,488,  official: 7,579,  infectious: 8,488,  died: 7,  dead: 501

Apr 27:  real: 8,772,  official: 7,777,  infectious: 8,772,  died: 10,  dead: 511

Apr 28:  real: 8,928,  official: 7,958,  infectious: 8,928,  died: 19,  dead: 530

Apr 29:  real: 9,223,  official: 8,212,  infectious: 9,223,  died: 28,  dead: 558

Apr 30:  real: 9,485,  official: 8,488,  infectious: 9,485,  died: 10,  dead: 568

May  1:  real: 9,684,  official: 8,772,  infectious: 9,684,  died: 11,  dead: 579

May  2:  real: 10,004,  official: 8,928,  infectious: 10,004,  died: 24,  dead: 603

May  3:  real: 10,343,  official: 9,223,  infectious: 10,343,  died: 4,  dead: 607

May  4:  real: 10,463,  official: 9,485,  infectious: 10,463,  died: 16,  dead: 623

May  5:  real: 10,610,  official: 9,684,  infectious: 10,610,  died: 14,  dead: 637

May  6:  real: 10,794,  official: 10,004,  infectious: 10,794,  died: 21,  dead: 658

May  7:  real: 11,086,  official: 10,343,  infectious: 11,086,  died: 27,  dead: 685

May  8:  real: 11,350,  official: 10,463,  infectious: 11,350,  died: 11,  dead: 696

May  9:  real: 11,618,  official: 10,610,  infectious: 11,618,  died: 8,  dead: 704

May 10:  real: 11,876,  official: 10,794,  infectious: 11,876,  died: 15,  dead: 719

May 11:  real: 12,091,  official: 11,086,  infectious: 12,091,  died: 7,  dead: 726

May 12:  real: 12,305,  official: 11,350,  infectious: 12,305,  died: 25,  dead: 751

May 13:  real: 12,513,  official: 11,618,  infectious: 12,513,  died: 21,  dead: 772

May 14:  real: 12,718,  official: 11,876,  infectious: 12,718,  died: 18,  dead: 790

May 15:  real: 12,942,  official: 12,091,  infectious: 12,942,  died: 16,  dead: 806

May 16:  real: 13,221,  official: 12,305,  infectious: 13,221,  died: 11,  dead: 817

May 17:  real: 13,434,  official: 12,513,  infectious: 13,434,  died: 7,  dead: 824

May 18:  real: 13,597,  official: 12,718,  infectious: 13,597,  died: 7,  dead: 831

May 19:  real: 13,777,  official: 12,942,  infectious: 13,777,  died: 6,  dead: 837

May 20:  real: 14,035,  official: 13,221,  infectious: 14,035,  died: 5,  dead: 842

May 21:  real: 14,319,  official: 13,434,  infectious: 14,319,  died: 4,  dead: 846

May 22:  real: 14,669,  official: 13,597,  infectious: 14,669,  died: 11,  dead: 857

May 23:  real: 15,049,  official: 13,777,  infectious: 15,049,  died: 6,  dead: 863

May 24:  real: 15,588,  official: 14,035,  infectious: 15,588,  died: 5,  dead: 868

May 25:  real: 16,634,  official: 14,319,  infectious: 16,634,  died: 5,  dead: 873

May 26:  real: 17,224,  official: 14,669,  infectious: 17,224,  died: 13,  dead: 886

May 27:  real: 18,086,  official: 15,049,  infectious: 18,086,  died: 18,  dead: 904

May 28:  real: 18,638,  official: 15,588,  infectious: 18,638,  died: 17,  dead: 921

May 29:  real: 18,997,  official: 16,634,  infectious: 18,997,  died: 21,  dead: 942

May 30:  real: 19,748,  official: 17,224,  infectious: 19,748,  died: 8,  dead: 950

May 31:  real: 20,382,  official: 18,086,  infectious: 20,382,  died: 7,  dead: 957

Jun  1:  real: 20,626,  official: 18,638,  infectious: 20,626,  died: 3,  dead: 960

Jun  2:  real: 21,340,  official: 18,997,  infectious: 21,340,  died: 6,  dead: 966

Jun  3:  real: 21,895,  official: 19,748,  infectious: 21,895,  died: 8,  dead: 974

Jun  4:  real: 22,474,  official: 20,382,  infectious: 22,474,  died: 10,  dead: 984

Jun  5:  real: 22,992,  official: 20,626,  infectious: 22,992,  died: 3,  dead: 987

Jun  6:  real: 23,732,  official: 21,340,  infectious: 23,732,  died: 7,  dead: 994

Jun  7:  real: 24,175,  official: 21,895,  infectious: 24,175,  died: 9,  dead: 1,003

Jun  8:  real: 24,787,  official: 22,474,  infectious: 24,787,  died: 8,  dead: 1,011

Jun  9:  real: 25,392,  official: 22,992,  infectious: 25,392,  died: 6,  dead: 1,017

Jun 10:  real: 25,930,  official: 23,732,  infectious: 25,930,  died: 10,  dead: 1,027

Jun 11:  real: 26,420,  official: 24,175,  infectious: 26,420,  died: 9,  dead: 1,036

Jun 12:  real: 26,781,  official: 24,787,  infectious: 26,781,  died: 16,  dead: 1,052

Jun 13:  real: 27,238,  official: 25,392,  infectious: 27,238,  died: 22,  dead: 1,074

Jun 14:  real: 27,799,  official: 25,930,  infectious: 27,799,  died: 14,  dead: 1,088

Jun 15:  real: 28,459,  official: 26,420,  infectious: 28,459,  died: 10,  dead: 1,098

Jun 16:  real: 29,400,  official: 26,781,  infectious: 29,400,  died: 5,  dead: 1,103

Jun 17:  real: 30,052,  official: 27,238,  infectious: 30,052,  died: 5,  dead: 1,108

Jun 18:  real: 30,682,  official: 27,799,  infectious: 30,682,  died: 8,  dead: 1,116

Jun 19:  real: 31,825,  official: 28,459,  infectious: 31,825,  died: 14,  dead: 1,130

Jun 20:  real: 32,295,  official: 29,400,  infectious: 32,295,  died: 20,  dead: 1,150

Jun 21:  real: 33,069,  official: 30,052,  infectious: 33,069,  died: 19,  dead: 1,169

Jun 22:  real: 34,073,  official: 30,682,  infectious: 34,073,  died: 8,  dead: 1,177

Jun 23:  real: 34,803,  official: 31,825,  infectious: 34,803,  died: 9,  dead: 1,186

Jun 24:  real: 35,455,  official: 32,295,  infectious: 35,455,  died: 18,  dead: 1,204

Jun 25:  real: 36,438,  official: 33,069,  infectious: 36,438,  died: 8,  dead: 1,212

Jun 26:  real: 37,514,  official: 34,073,  infectious: 37,514,  died: 12,  dead: 1,224

Jun 27:  real: 38,511,  official: 34,803,  infectious: 38,511,  died: 12,  dead: 1,236

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 38,852,  official: 35,455,  infectious: 12,209,  died: 6,  dead: 1,242

Jun 29:  real: 39,210,  official: 36,438,  infectious: 12,826,  died: 10,  dead: 1,252

Jun 30:  real: 39,559,  official: 37,514,  infectious: 12,495,  died: 13,  dead: 1,265

Jul  1:  real: 39,902,  official: 38,511,  infectious: 12,279,  died: 9,  dead: 1,274

Jul  2:  real: 40,239,  official: 38,852,  infectious: 12,056,  died: 8,  dead: 1,282

Jul  3:  real: 40,570,  official: 39,210,  infectious: 11,839,  died: 13,  dead: 1,295

Jul  4:  real: 40,899,  official: 39,559,  infectious: 11,762,  died: 14,  dead: 1,309

Jul  5:  real: 41,223,  official: 39,902,  infectious: 11,604,  died: 13,  dead: 1,322

Jul  6:  real: 41,539,  official: 40,239,  infectious: 11,310,  died: 0,  dead: 1,322

Jul  7:  real: 41,844,  official: 40,570,  infectious: 10,919,  died: 6,  dead: 1,328

Jul  8:  real: 42,132,  official: 40,899,  infectious: 10,315,  died: 10,  dead: 1,338

Jul  9:  real: 42,412,  official: 41,223,  infectious: 10,029,  died: 13,  dead: 1,351

Jul 10:  real: 42,684,  official: 41,539,  infectious: 9,742,  died: 9,  dead: 1,360

Jul 11:  real: 42,937,  official: 41,844,  infectious: 9,038,  died: 8,  dead: 1,368

Jul 12:  real: 43,185,  official: 42,132,  infectious: 8,864,  died: 13,  dead: 1,381

Jul 13:  real: 43,421,  official: 42,412,  infectious: 8,430,  died: 14,  dead: 1,395

Jul 14:  real: 43,639,  official: 42,684,  infectious: 7,808,  died: 13,  dead: 1,408

Jul 15:  real: 43,846,  official: 42,937,  infectious: 7,393,  died: 9,  dead: 1,417

Jul 16:  real: 44,042,  official: 43,185,  infectious: 7,024,  died: 9,  dead: 1,426

Jul 17:  real: 44,220,  official: 43,421,  infectious: 6,382,  died: 9,  dead: 1,435

Jul 18:  real: 44,378,  official: 43,639,  infectious: 5,657,  died: 9,  dead: 1,444

Jul 19:  real: 44,517,  official: 43,846,  infectious: 4,980,  died: 9,  dead: 1,453

Jul 20:  real: 44,651,  official: 44,042,  infectious: 4,810,  died: 8,  dead: 1,461

Jul 21:  real: 44,780,  official: 44,220,  infectious: 4,610,  died: 8,  dead: 1,469

Jul 22:  real: 44,903,  official: 44,378,  infectious: 4,415,  died: 8,  dead: 1,477

Jul 23:  real: 45,021,  official: 44,517,  infectious: 4,221,  died: 8,  dead: 1,485

Jul 24:  real: 45,134,  official: 44,651,  infectious: 4,028,  died: 8,  dead: 1,493

Jul 25:  real: 45,241,  official: 44,780,  infectious: 3,838,  died: 7,  dead: 1,500

Jul 26:  real: 45,343,  official: 44,903,  infectious: 3,648,  died: 7,  dead: 1,507

Jul 27:  real: 45,440,  official: 45,021,  infectious: 3,457,  died: 7,  dead: 1,514

Jul 28:  real: 45,531,  official: 45,134,  infectious: 3,272,  died: 6,  dead: 1,520

Jul 29:  real: 45,617,  official: 45,241,  infectious: 3,094,  died: 6,  dead: 1,526

Jul 30:  real: 45,699,  official: 45,343,  infectious: 2,927,  died: 6,  dead: 1,532

Jul 31:  real: 45,776,  official: 45,440,  infectious: 2,763,  died: 6,  dead: 1,538

Aug  1:  real: 45,849,  official: 45,531,  infectious: 2,601,  died: 5,  dead: 1,543

Aug  2:  real: 45,917,  official: 45,617,  infectious: 2,450,  died: 4,  dead: 1,547

Aug  3:  real: 45,981,  official: 45,699,  infectious: 2,301,  died: 4,  dead: 1,551

Aug  4:  real: 46,041,  official: 45,776,  infectious: 2,159,  died: 4,  dead: 1,555

Aug  5:  real: 46,098,  official: 45,849,  infectious: 2,028,  died: 3,  dead: 1,558

Aug  6:  real: 46,151,  official: 45,917,  infectious: 1,902,  died: 3,  dead: 1,561

Aug  7:  real: 46,201,  official: 45,981,  infectious: 1,783,  died: 3,  dead: 1,564

Aug  8:  real: 46,248,  official: 46,041,  infectious: 1,676,  died: 3,  dead: 1,567

Aug  9:  real: 46,292,  official: 46,098,  infectious: 1,583,  died: 3,  dead: 1,570

Aug 10:  real: 46,334,  official: 46,151,  infectious: 1,503,  died: 2,  dead: 1,572

Aug 11:  real: 46,374,  official: 46,201,  infectious: 1,424,  died: 2,  dead: 1,574

Aug 12:  real: 46,412,  official: 46,248,  infectious: 1,349,  died: 2,  dead: 1,576

Aug 13:  real: 46,448,  official: 46,292,  infectious: 1,277,  died: 2,  dead: 1,578

Aug 14:  real: 46,482,  official: 46,334,  infectious: 1,208,  died: 2,  dead: 1,580

Aug 15:  real: 46,514,  official: 46,374,  infectious: 1,142,  died: 2,  dead: 1,582

Aug 16:  real: 46,544,  official: 46,412,  infectious: 1,079,  died: 2,  dead: 1,584

Aug 17:  real: 46,573,  official: 46,448,  infectious: 1,020,  died: 1,  dead: 1,585

Aug 18:  real: 46,600,  official: 46,482,  infectious: 962,  died: 1,  dead: 1,586

Aug 19:  real: 46,625,  official: 46,514,  infectious: 908,  died: 1,  dead: 1,587

Aug 20:  real: 46,649,  official: 46,544,  infectious: 857,  died: 1,  dead: 1,588

Aug 21:  real: 46,672,  official: 46,573,  infectious: 808,  died: 1,  dead: 1,589

Aug 22:  real: 46,693,  official: 46,600,  infectious: 763,  died: 1,  dead: 1,590

Aug 23:  real: 46,713,  official: 46,625,  infectious: 720,  died: 1,  dead: 1,591

Aug 24:  real: 46,732,  official: 46,649,  infectious: 680,  died: 1,  dead: 1,592

Aug 25:  real: 46,750,  official: 46,672,  infectious: 642,  died: 1,  dead: 1,593

Aug 26:  real: 46,767,  official: 46,693,  infectious: 607,  died: 1,  dead: 1,594

Aug 27:  real: 46,783,  official: 46,713,  infectious: 573,  died: 1,  dead: 1,595

Aug 28:  real: 46,798,  official: 46,732,  infectious: 541,  died: 1,  dead: 1,596

Aug 29:  real: 46,812,  official: 46,750,  infectious: 511,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Aug 30:  real: 46,826,  official: 46,767,  infectious: 484,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Aug 31:  real: 46,839,  official: 46,783,  infectious: 458,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  1:  real: 46,851,  official: 46,798,  infectious: 434,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  2:  real: 46,862,  official: 46,812,  infectious: 410,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  3:  real: 46,873,  official: 46,826,  infectious: 388,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  4:  real: 46,883,  official: 46,839,  infectious: 367,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  5:  real: 46,893,  official: 46,851,  infectious: 348,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  6:  real: 46,902,  official: 46,862,  infectious: 329,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  7:  real: 46,911,  official: 46,873,  infectious: 312,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  8:  real: 46,919,  official: 46,883,  infectious: 295,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep  9:  real: 46,927,  official: 46,893,  infectious: 280,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 10:  real: 46,934,  official: 46,902,  infectious: 265,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 11:  real: 46,941,  official: 46,911,  infectious: 252,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 12:  real: 46,948,  official: 46,919,  infectious: 239,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 13:  real: 46,954,  official: 46,927,  infectious: 228,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 14:  real: 46,960,  official: 46,934,  infectious: 217,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 15:  real: 46,966,  official: 46,941,  infectious: 205,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 16:  real: 46,971,  official: 46,948,  infectious: 194,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 17:  real: 46,976,  official: 46,954,  infectious: 184,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 18:  real: 46,981,  official: 46,960,  infectious: 174,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 19:  real: 46,986,  official: 46,966,  infectious: 165,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 20:  real: 46,990,  official: 46,971,  infectious: 157,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 21:  real: 46,994,  official: 46,976,  infectious: 149,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 22:  real: 46,998,  official: 46,981,  infectious: 140,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 23:  real: 47,002,  official: 46,986,  infectious: 132,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 24:  real: 47,006,  official: 46,990,  infectious: 126,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 25:  real: 47,009,  official: 46,994,  infectious: 120,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 26:  real: 47,012,  official: 46,998,  infectious: 115,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 27:  real: 47,015,  official: 47,002,  infectious: 109,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 28:  real: 47,018,  official: 47,006,  infectious: 104,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 29:  real: 47,021,  official: 47,009,  infectious: 99,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Sep 30:  real: 47,024,  official: 47,012,  infectious: 95,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  1:  real: 47,027,  official: 47,015,  infectious: 91,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  2:  real: 47,029,  official: 47,018,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  3:  real: 47,031,  official: 47,021,  infectious: 85,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  4:  real: 47,033,  official: 47,024,  infectious: 81,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  5:  real: 47,035,  official: 47,027,  infectious: 77,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  6:  real: 47,037,  official: 47,029,  infectious: 73,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  7:  real: 47,039,  official: 47,031,  infectious: 69,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  8:  real: 47,041,  official: 47,033,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct  9:  real: 47,043,  official: 47,035,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 10:  real: 47,045,  official: 47,037,  infectious: 60,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 11:  real: 47,047,  official: 47,039,  infectious: 57,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 12:  real: 47,049,  official: 47,041,  infectious: 55,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 13:  real: 47,050,  official: 47,043,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 14:  real: 47,051,  official: 47,045,  infectious: 51,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 15:  real: 47,052,  official: 47,047,  infectious: 48,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 16:  real: 47,053,  official: 47,049,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 17:  real: 47,054,  official: 47,050,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 18:  real: 47,055,  official: 47,051,  infectious: 41,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 19:  real: 47,056,  official: 47,052,  infectious: 39,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 20:  real: 47,057,  official: 47,053,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 21:  real: 47,058,  official: 47,054,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 22:  real: 47,059,  official: 47,055,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 23:  real: 47,060,  official: 47,056,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 24:  real: 47,061,  official: 47,057,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 25:  real: 47,062,  official: 47,058,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 26:  real: 47,063,  official: 47,059,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 27:  real: 47,064,  official: 47,060,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 28:  real: 47,065,  official: 47,061,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 29:  real: 47,066,  official: 47,062,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 30:  real: 47,067,  official: 47,063,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Oct 31:  real: 47,068,  official: 47,064,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  1:  real: 47,069,  official: 47,065,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  2:  real: 47,070,  official: 47,066,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  3:  real: 47,071,  official: 47,067,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  4:  real: 47,072,  official: 47,068,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  5:  real: 47,073,  official: 47,069,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  6:  real: 47,074,  official: 47,070,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  7:  real: 47,075,  official: 47,071,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  8:  real: 47,076,  official: 47,072,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov  9:  real: 47,077,  official: 47,073,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 10:  real: 47,078,  official: 47,074,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 11:  real: 47,079,  official: 47,075,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 12:  real: 47,080,  official: 47,076,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 13:  real: 47,081,  official: 47,077,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 14:  real: 47,082,  official: 47,078,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 15:  real: 47,083,  official: 47,079,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 16:  real: 47,084,  official: 47,080,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 17:  real: 47,085,  official: 47,081,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 18:  real: 47,086,  official: 47,082,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 19:  real: 47,087,  official: 47,083,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 20:  real: 47,088,  official: 47,084,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 21:  real: 47,089,  official: 47,085,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 22:  real: 47,090,  official: 47,086,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 23:  real: 47,091,  official: 47,087,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 24:  real: 47,092,  official: 47,088,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 25:  real: 47,093,  official: 47,089,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 26:  real: 47,094,  official: 47,090,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 27:  real: 47,095,  official: 47,091,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 28:  real: 47,096,  official: 47,092,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 29:  real: 47,097,  official: 47,093,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Nov 30:  real: 47,098,  official: 47,094,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  1:  real: 47,099,  official: 47,095,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  2:  real: 47,100,  official: 47,096,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  3:  real: 47,101,  official: 47,097,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  4:  real: 47,102,  official: 47,098,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  5:  real: 47,103,  official: 47,099,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  6:  real: 47,104,  official: 47,100,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  7:  real: 47,105,  official: 47,101,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  8:  real: 47,106,  official: 47,102,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec  9:  real: 47,107,  official: 47,103,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 10:  real: 47,108,  official: 47,104,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 11:  real: 47,109,  official: 47,105,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 12:  real: 47,110,  official: 47,106,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 13:  real: 47,111,  official: 47,107,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 14:  real: 47,112,  official: 47,108,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 15:  real: 47,113,  official: 47,109,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 16:  real: 47,114,  official: 47,110,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 17:  real: 47,115,  official: 47,111,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 18:  real: 47,116,  official: 47,112,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 19:  real: 47,117,  official: 47,113,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 20:  real: 47,118,  official: 47,114,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 21:  real: 47,119,  official: 47,115,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 22:  real: 47,120,  official: 47,116,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 23:  real: 47,121,  official: 47,117,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 24:  real: 47,122,  official: 47,118,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 25:  real: 47,123,  official: 47,119,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 26:  real: 47,124,  official: 47,120,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 27:  real: 47,125,  official: 47,121,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 28:  real: 47,126,  official: 47,122,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 29:  real: 47,127,  official: 47,123,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 30:  real: 47,128,  official: 47,124,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

Dec 31:  real: 47,129,  official: 47,125,  infectious: 20,  died: 0,  dead: 1,596

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         14:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  4.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      1,596:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      1,596:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.79%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0279
Official uninf: 64,961,489 / Adult Pop.: 65,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.94%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0006
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.80%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0280