COVID-19 Forecast for Spain, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
2302 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Spain HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 2302 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Spain run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Spain are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          7:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     28,407:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     28,407:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Spain COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.001, at 100.10% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 282,  official: 84,  infectious: 282,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 401,  official: 120,  infectious: 401,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 525,  official: 165,  infectious: 525,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar  4:  real: 674,  official: 228,  infectious: 674,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar  5:  real: 1,231,  official: 282,  infectious: 1,231,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar  6:  real: 1,695,  official: 401,  infectious: 1,695,  died: 5,  dead: 8

Mar  7:  real: 2,277,  official: 525,  infectious: 2,277,  died: 2,  dead: 10

Mar  8:  real: 3,146,  official: 674,  infectious: 3,146,  died: 7,  dead: 17

Mar  9:  real: 5,232,  official: 1,231,  infectious: 5,232,  died: 13,  dead: 30

Mar 10:  real: 6,391,  official: 1,695,  infectious: 6,391,  died: 6,  dead: 36

Mar 11:  real: 7,988,  official: 2,277,  infectious: 7,988,  died: 19,  dead: 55

Mar 12:  real: 9,942,  official: 3,146,  infectious: 9,942,  died: 31,  dead: 86

Mar 13:  real: 11,826,  official: 5,232,  infectious: 11,826,  died: 47,  dead: 133

Mar 14:  real: 14,769,  official: 6,391,  infectious: 14,769,  died: 63,  dead: 196

Mar 15:  real: 18,077,  official: 7,988,  infectious: 18,077,  died: 98,  dead: 294

Mar 16:  real: 21,571,  official: 9,942,  infectious: 21,571,  died: 48,  dead: 342

Mar 17:  real: 25,496,  official: 11,826,  infectious: 25,496,  died: 191,  dead: 533

Mar 18:  real: 28,768,  official: 14,769,  infectious: 28,768,  died: 105,  dead: 638

Mar 19:  real: 35,136,  official: 18,077,  infectious: 35,136,  died: 193,  dead: 831

Mar 20:  real: 42,058,  official: 21,571,  infectious: 42,058,  died: 262,  dead: 1,093

Mar 21:  real: 49,515,  official: 25,496,  infectious: 49,515,  died: 288,  dead: 1,381

Mar 22:  real: 57,786,  official: 28,768,  infectious: 57,786,  died: 391,  dead: 1,772

Mar 23:  real: 65,719,  official: 35,136,  infectious: 65,719,  died: 539,  dead: 2,311

Mar 24:  real: 73,235,  official: 42,058,  infectious: 73,235,  died: 680,  dead: 2,991

Mar 25:  real: 80,110,  official: 49,515,  infectious: 80,110,  died: 656,  dead: 3,647

Mar 26:  real: 87,956,  official: 57,786,  infectious: 87,956,  died: 718,  dead: 4,365

Mar 27:  real: 95,923,  official: 65,719,  infectious: 95,923,  died: 773,  dead: 5,138

Mar 28:  real: 104,118,  official: 73,235,  infectious: 104,118,  died: 844,  dead: 5,982

Mar 29:  real: 112,065,  official: 80,110,  infectious: 112,065,  died: 821,  dead: 6,803

Mar 30:  real: 119,199,  official: 87,956,  infectious: 119,199,  died: 913,  dead: 7,716

Mar 31:  real: 126,168,  official: 95,923,  infectious: 126,168,  died: 748,  dead: 8,464

Apr  1:  real: 131,646,  official: 104,118,  infectious: 131,646,  died: 923,  dead: 9,387

Apr  2:  real: 136,675,  official: 112,065,  infectious: 136,675,  died: 961,  dead: 10,348

Apr  3:  real: 141,942,  official: 119,199,  infectious: 141,942,  died: 850,  dead: 11,198

Apr  4:  real: 148,220,  official: 126,168,  infectious: 148,220,  died: 749,  dead: 11,947

Apr  5:  real: 153,222,  official: 131,646,  infectious: 153,222,  died: 694,  dead: 12,641

Apr  6:  real: 158,273,  official: 136,675,  infectious: 158,273,  died: 700,  dead: 13,341

Apr  7:  real: 163,027,  official: 141,942,  infectious: 163,027,  died: 704,  dead: 14,045

Apr  8:  real: 166,831,  official: 148,220,  infectious: 166,831,  died: 747,  dead: 14,792

Apr  9:  real: 170,099,  official: 153,222,  infectious: 170,099,  died: 655,  dead: 15,447

Apr 10:  real: 174,060,  official: 158,273,  infectious: 174,060,  died: 634,  dead: 16,081

Apr 11:  real: 180,659,  official: 163,027,  infectious: 180,659,  died: 525,  dead: 16,606

Apr 12:  real: 184,948,  official: 166,831,  infectious: 184,948,  died: 603,  dead: 17,209

Apr 13:  real: 190,839,  official: 170,099,  infectious: 190,839,  died: 547,  dead: 17,756

Apr 14:  real: 194,416,  official: 174,060,  infectious: 194,416,  died: 499,  dead: 18,255

Apr 15:  real: 198,674,  official: 180,659,  infectious: 198,674,  died: 557,  dead: 18,812

Apr 16:  real: 200,210,  official: 184,948,  infectious: 200,210,  died: 318,  dead: 19,130

Apr 17:  real: 204,178,  official: 190,839,  infectious: 204,178,  died: 348,  dead: 19,478

Apr 18:  real: 208,389,  official: 194,416,  infectious: 208,389,  died: 565,  dead: 20,043

Apr 19:  real: 213,024,  official: 198,674,  infectious: 213,024,  died: 410,  dead: 20,453

Apr 20:  real: 219,764,  official: 200,210,  infectious: 219,764,  died: 399,  dead: 20,852

Apr 21:  real: 223,759,  official: 204,178,  infectious: 223,759,  died: 430,  dead: 21,282

Apr 22:  real: 226,629,  official: 208,389,  infectious: 226,629,  died: 435,  dead: 21,717

Apr 23:  real: 229,422,  official: 213,024,  infectious: 229,422,  died: 440,  dead: 22,157

Apr 24:  real: 232,128,  official: 219,764,  infectious: 232,128,  died: 367,  dead: 22,524

Apr 25:  real: 236,899,  official: 223,759,  infectious: 236,899,  died: 378,  dead: 22,902

Apr 26:  real: 239,340,  official: 226,629,  infectious: 239,340,  died: 288,  dead: 23,190

Apr 27:  real: 242,979,  official: 229,422,  infectious: 242,979,  died: 331,  dead: 23,521

Apr 28:  real: 245,589,  official: 232,128,  infectious: 245,589,  died: 301,  dead: 23,822

Apr 29:  real: 247,122,  official: 236,899,  infectious: 247,122,  died: 453,  dead: 24,275

Apr 30:  real: 248,301,  official: 239,340,  infectious: 248,301,  died: 268,  dead: 24,543

May  1:  real: 250,561,  official: 242,979,  infectious: 250,561,  died: 281,  dead: 24,824

May  2:  real: 253,682,  official: 245,589,  infectious: 253,682,  died: 276,  dead: 25,100

May  3:  real: 256,855,  official: 247,122,  infectious: 256,855,  died: 164,  dead: 25,264

May  4:  real: 260,117,  official: 248,301,  infectious: 260,117,  died: 164,  dead: 25,428

May  5:  real: 262,783,  official: 250,561,  infectious: 262,783,  died: 185,  dead: 25,613

May  6:  real: 264,663,  official: 253,682,  infectious: 264,663,  died: 244,  dead: 25,857

May  7:  real: 268,143,  official: 256,855,  infectious: 268,143,  died: 213,  dead: 26,070

May  8:  real: 269,520,  official: 260,117,  infectious: 269,520,  died: 229,  dead: 26,299

May  9:  real: 271,095,  official: 262,783,  infectious: 271,095,  died: 179,  dead: 26,478

May 10:  real: 272,646,  official: 264,663,  infectious: 272,646,  died: 143,  dead: 26,621

May 11:  real: 274,367,  official: 268,143,  infectious: 274,367,  died: 123,  dead: 26,744

May 12:  real: 276,505,  official: 269,520,  infectious: 276,505,  died: 112,  dead: 26,856

May 13:  real: 277,719,  official: 271,095,  infectious: 277,719,  died: 110,  dead: 26,966

May 14:  real: 278,188,  official: 272,646,  infectious: 278,188,  died: 132,  dead: 27,098

May 15:  real: 278,803,  official: 274,367,  infectious: 278,803,  died: 96,  dead: 27,194

May 16:  real: 279,524,  official: 276,505,  infectious: 279,524,  died: 62,  dead: 27,256

May 17:  real: 280,117,  official: 277,719,  infectious: 280,117,  died: 52,  dead: 27,308

May 18:  real: 281,904,  official: 278,188,  infectious: 281,904,  died: 35,  dead: 27,343

May 19:  real: 282,370,  official: 278,803,  infectious: 282,370,  died: 41,  dead: 27,384

May 20:  real: 282,852,  official: 279,524,  infectious: 282,852,  died: 66,  dead: 27,450

May 21:  real: 282,480,  official: 280,117,  infectious: 282,480,  died: 52,  dead: 27,502

May 22:  real: 283,339,  official: 281,904,  infectious: 283,339,  died: 70,  dead: 27,572

May 23:  real: 283,849,  official: 282,370,  infectious: 283,849,  died: 50,  dead: 27,622

May 24:  real: 284,986,  official: 282,852,  infectious: 284,986,  died: 74,  dead: 27,696

May 25:  real: 285,644,  official: 282,480,  infectious: 285,644,  died: 72,  dead: 27,768

May 26:  real: 286,308,  official: 283,339,  infectious: 286,308,  died: 75,  dead: 27,843

May 27:  real: 286,509,  official: 283,849,  infectious: 286,509,  died: 42,  dead: 27,885

May 28:  real: 286,718,  official: 284,986,  infectious: 286,718,  died: 37,  dead: 27,922

May 29:  real: 287,012,  official: 285,644,  infectious: 287,012,  died: 30,  dead: 27,952

May 30:  real: 287,406,  official: 286,308,  infectious: 287,406,  died: 38,  dead: 27,990

May 31:  real: 287,740,  official: 286,509,  infectious: 287,740,  died: 40,  dead: 28,030

Jun  1:  real: 288,058,  official: 286,718,  infectious: 288,058,  died: 28,  dead: 28,058

Jun  2:  real: 288,390,  official: 287,012,  infectious: 288,390,  died: 20,  dead: 28,078

Jun  3:  real: 288,630,  official: 287,406,  infectious: 288,630,  died: 30,  dead: 28,108

Jun  4:  real: 288,797,  official: 287,740,  infectious: 288,797,  died: 25,  dead: 28,133

Jun  5:  real: 289,046,  official: 288,058,  infectious: 289,046,  died: 30,  dead: 28,163

Jun  6:  real: 289,360,  official: 288,390,  infectious: 289,360,  died: 15,  dead: 28,178

Jun  7:  real: 289,787,  official: 288,630,  infectious: 289,787,  died: 19,  dead: 28,197

Jun  8:  real: 290,289,  official: 288,797,  infectious: 290,289,  died: 12,  dead: 28,209

Jun  9:  real: 290,685,  official: 289,046,  infectious: 290,685,  died: 17,  dead: 28,226

Jun 10:  real: 291,008,  official: 289,360,  infectious: 291,008,  died: 10,  dead: 28,236

Jun 11:  real: 291,189,  official: 289,787,  infectious: 291,189,  died: 23,  dead: 28,259

Jun 12:  real: 291,408,  official: 290,289,  infectious: 291,408,  died: 16,  dead: 28,275

Jun 13:  real: 291,763,  official: 290,685,  infectious: 291,763,  died: 9,  dead: 28,284

Jun 14:  real: 292,348,  official: 291,008,  infectious: 292,348,  died: 7,  dead: 28,291

Jun 15:  real: 292,655,  official: 291,189,  infectious: 292,655,  died: 8,  dead: 28,299

Jun 16:  real: 293,018,  official: 291,408,  infectious: 293,018,  died: 7,  dead: 28,306

Jun 17:  real: 293,352,  official: 291,763,  infectious: 293,352,  died: 6,  dead: 28,312

Jun 18:  real: 293,584,  official: 292,348,  infectious: 293,584,  died: 3,  dead: 28,315

Jun 19:  real: 293,832,  official: 292,655,  infectious: 293,832,  died: 0,  dead: 28,315

Jun 20:  real: 294,166,  official: 293,018,  infectious: 294,166,  died: 7,  dead: 28,322

Jun 21:  real: 294,566,  official: 293,352,  infectious: 294,566,  died: 1,  dead: 28,323

Jun 22:  real: 294,985,  official: 293,584,  infectious: 294,985,  died: 1,  dead: 28,324

Jun 23:  real: 295,549,  official: 293,832,  infectious: 295,549,  died: 1,  dead: 28,325

Jun 24:  real: 295,850,  official: 294,166,  infectious: 295,850,  died: 2,  dead: 28,327

Jun 25:  real: 296,050,  official: 294,566,  infectious: 296,050,  died: 3,  dead: 28,330

Jun 26:  real: 296,351,  official: 294,985,  infectious: 296,351,  died: 8,  dead: 28,338

Jun 27:  real: 296,739,  official: 295,549,  infectious: 296,739,  died: 3,  dead: 28,341

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 296,745,  official: 295,850,  infectious: 6,093,  died: 4,  dead: 28,345

Jun 29:  real: 296,751,  official: 296,050,  infectious: 6,128,  died: 5,  dead: 28,350

Jun 30:  real: 296,757,  official: 296,351,  infectious: 5,686,  died: 5,  dead: 28,355

Jul  1:  real: 296,762,  official: 296,739,  infectious: 5,316,  died: 7,  dead: 28,362

Jul  2:  real: 296,767,  official: 296,745,  infectious: 4,994,  died: 3,  dead: 28,365

Jul  3:  real: 296,772,  official: 296,751,  infectious: 4,776,  died: 2,  dead: 28,367

Jul  4:  real: 296,777,  official: 296,757,  infectious: 4,513,  died: 3,  dead: 28,370

Jul  5:  real: 296,781,  official: 296,762,  infectious: 4,184,  died: 4,  dead: 28,374

Jul  6:  real: 296,785,  official: 296,767,  infectious: 3,683,  died: 0,  dead: 28,374

Jul  7:  real: 296,788,  official: 296,772,  infectious: 3,386,  died: 4,  dead: 28,378

Jul  8:  real: 296,791,  official: 296,777,  infectious: 3,042,  died: 5,  dead: 28,383

Jul  9:  real: 296,794,  official: 296,781,  infectious: 2,776,  died: 5,  dead: 28,388

Jul 10:  real: 296,797,  official: 296,785,  infectious: 2,591,  died: 7,  dead: 28,395

Jul 11:  real: 296,799,  official: 296,788,  infectious: 2,394,  died: 3,  dead: 28,398

Jul 12:  real: 296,801,  official: 296,791,  infectious: 2,128,  died: 2,  dead: 28,400

Jul 13:  real: 296,803,  official: 296,794,  infectious: 1,809,  died: 3,  dead: 28,403

Jul 14:  real: 296,804,  official: 296,797,  infectious: 1,474,  died: 4,  dead: 28,407

Jul 15:  real: 296,805,  official: 296,799,  infectious: 1,024,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 16:  real: 296,806,  official: 296,801,  infectious: 782,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 17:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,803,  infectious: 622,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 18:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,804,  infectious: 380,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 19:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,805,  infectious: 68,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 20:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,806,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 21:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 22:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 23:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 45,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 24:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 25:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 26:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 27:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 28:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 29:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 30:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Jul 31:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  1:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  2:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  3:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  4:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  5:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  6:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  7:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  8:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug  9:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 10:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 11:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 12:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 13:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 14:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 15:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 16:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 17:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 18:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 19:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 20:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 21:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 22:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 23:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 24:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 25:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 26:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 27:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 28:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 29:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 30:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Aug 31:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  1:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  2:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  3:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  4:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  5:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  6:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  7:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  8:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep  9:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 10:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 11:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 12:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 13:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 14:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 15:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 16:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 17:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 18:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 19:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 20:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 21:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 22:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 23:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 24:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 25:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 26:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 27:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 28:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 29:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Sep 30:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  1:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  2:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  3:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  4:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  5:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  6:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  7:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  8:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct  9:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 10:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 11:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 12:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 13:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 14:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 15:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 16:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 17:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 18:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 19:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 20:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 21:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 22:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 23:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 24:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 25:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 26:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 27:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 28:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 29:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 30:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Oct 31:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  1:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  2:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  3:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  4:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  5:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  6:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  7:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  8:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov  9:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 10:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 11:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 12:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 13:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 14:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 15:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 16:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 17:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 18:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 19:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 20:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 21:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 22:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 23:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 24:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 25:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 26:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 27:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 28:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 29:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Nov 30:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  1:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  2:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  3:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  4:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  5:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  6:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  7:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  8:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec  9:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 10:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 11:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 12:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 13:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 14:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 15:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 16:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 17:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 18:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 19:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 20:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 21:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 22:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 23:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 24:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 25:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 26:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 27:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 28:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 29:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 30:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

Dec 31:  real: 296,807,  official: 296,807,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,407

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          7:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     28,407:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     28,407:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.10%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0010
Official uninf: 37,703,261 / Adult Pop.: 38,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.22%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0079
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.10%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0010