COVID-19 Forecast for Norway, Wed, Jul 1st

10x in
1495 days

H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Norway HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 1495 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Norway run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Norway are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        249:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        249:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

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Norway COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.002, at 100.15% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 94,  official: 19,  infectious: 94,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 127,  official: 25,  infectious: 127,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 156,  official: 33,  infectious: 156,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 176,  official: 59,  infectious: 176,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 227,  official: 94,  infectious: 227,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 400,  official: 127,  infectious: 400,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 629,  official: 156,  infectious: 629,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 800,  official: 176,  infectious: 800,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 996,  official: 227,  infectious: 996,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 1,109,  official: 400,  infectious: 1,109,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 1,256,  official: 629,  infectious: 1,256,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 1,348,  official: 800,  infectious: 1,348,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 1,471,  official: 996,  infectious: 1,471,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 14:  real: 1,591,  official: 1,109,  infectious: 1,591,  died: 2,  dead: 3

Mar 15:  real: 1,790,  official: 1,256,  infectious: 1,790,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 16:  real: 1,959,  official: 1,348,  infectious: 1,959,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 17:  real: 2,164,  official: 1,471,  infectious: 2,164,  died: 0,  dead: 3

Mar 18:  real: 2,385,  official: 1,591,  infectious: 2,385,  died: 3,  dead: 6

Mar 19:  real: 2,625,  official: 1,790,  infectious: 2,625,  died: 1,  dead: 7

Mar 20:  real: 2,866,  official: 1,959,  infectious: 2,866,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 21:  real: 3,084,  official: 2,164,  infectious: 3,084,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 22:  real: 3,372,  official: 2,385,  infectious: 3,372,  died: 0,  dead: 7

Mar 23:  real: 3,771,  official: 2,625,  infectious: 3,771,  died: 3,  dead: 10

Mar 24:  real: 4,015,  official: 2,866,  infectious: 4,015,  died: 2,  dead: 12

Mar 25:  real: 4,284,  official: 3,084,  infectious: 4,284,  died: 2,  dead: 14

Mar 26:  real: 4,445,  official: 3,372,  infectious: 4,445,  died: 0,  dead: 14

Mar 27:  real: 4,641,  official: 3,771,  infectious: 4,641,  died: 5,  dead: 19

Mar 28:  real: 4,877,  official: 4,015,  infectious: 4,877,  died: 4,  dead: 23

Mar 29:  real: 5,147,  official: 4,284,  infectious: 5,147,  died: 3,  dead: 26

Mar 30:  real: 5,370,  official: 4,445,  infectious: 5,370,  died: 6,  dead: 32

Mar 31:  real: 5,550,  official: 4,641,  infectious: 5,550,  died: 7,  dead: 39

Apr  1:  real: 5,687,  official: 4,877,  infectious: 5,687,  died: 5,  dead: 44

Apr  2:  real: 5,865,  official: 5,147,  infectious: 5,865,  died: 6,  dead: 50

Apr  3:  real: 6,086,  official: 5,370,  infectious: 6,086,  died: 9,  dead: 59

Apr  4:  real: 6,042,  official: 5,550,  infectious: 6,042,  died: 3,  dead: 62

Apr  5:  real: 6,219,  official: 5,687,  infectious: 6,219,  died: 9,  dead: 71

Apr  6:  real: 6,314,  official: 5,865,  infectious: 6,314,  died: 5,  dead: 76

Apr  7:  real: 6,409,  official: 6,086,  infectious: 6,409,  died: 13,  dead: 89

Apr  8:  real: 6,525,  official: 6,042,  infectious: 6,525,  died: 12,  dead: 101

Apr  9:  real: 6,603,  official: 6,219,  infectious: 6,603,  died: 7,  dead: 108

Apr 10:  real: 6,623,  official: 6,314,  infectious: 6,623,  died: 5,  dead: 113

Apr 11:  real: 6,797,  official: 6,409,  infectious: 6,797,  died: 6,  dead: 119

Apr 12:  real: 6,905,  official: 6,525,  infectious: 6,905,  died: 9,  dead: 128

Apr 13:  real: 6,937,  official: 6,603,  infectious: 6,937,  died: 6,  dead: 134

Apr 14:  real: 7,036,  official: 6,623,  infectious: 7,036,  died: 5,  dead: 139

Apr 15:  real: 7,078,  official: 6,797,  infectious: 7,078,  died: 11,  dead: 150

Apr 16:  real: 7,156,  official: 6,905,  infectious: 7,156,  died: 2,  dead: 152

Apr 17:  real: 7,241,  official: 6,937,  infectious: 7,241,  died: 9,  dead: 161

Apr 18:  real: 7,338,  official: 7,036,  infectious: 7,338,  died: 3,  dead: 164

Apr 19:  real: 7,401,  official: 7,078,  infectious: 7,401,  died: 1,  dead: 165

Apr 20:  real: 7,463,  official: 7,156,  infectious: 7,463,  died: 16,  dead: 181

Apr 21:  real: 7,493,  official: 7,241,  infectious: 7,493,  died: 1,  dead: 182

Apr 22:  real: 7,527,  official: 7,338,  infectious: 7,527,  died: 5,  dead: 187

Apr 23:  real: 7,599,  official: 7,401,  infectious: 7,599,  died: 7,  dead: 194

Apr 24:  real: 7,660,  official: 7,463,  infectious: 7,660,  died: 5,  dead: 199

Apr 25:  real: 7,710,  official: 7,493,  infectious: 7,710,  died: 2,  dead: 201

Apr 26:  real: 7,738,  official: 7,527,  infectious: 7,738,  died: 0,  dead: 201

Apr 27:  real: 7,783,  official: 7,599,  infectious: 7,783,  died: 4,  dead: 205

Apr 28:  real: 7,809,  official: 7,660,  infectious: 7,809,  died: 1,  dead: 206

Apr 29:  real: 7,847,  official: 7,710,  infectious: 7,847,  died: 1,  dead: 207

Apr 30:  real: 7,904,  official: 7,738,  infectious: 7,904,  died: 3,  dead: 210

May  1:  real: 7,955,  official: 7,783,  infectious: 7,955,  died: 0,  dead: 210

May  2:  real: 7,996,  official: 7,809,  infectious: 7,996,  died: 1,  dead: 211

May  3:  real: 8,034,  official: 7,847,  infectious: 8,034,  died: 0,  dead: 211

May  4:  real: 8,070,  official: 7,904,  infectious: 8,070,  died: 3,  dead: 214

May  5:  real: 8,099,  official: 7,955,  infectious: 8,099,  died: 1,  dead: 215

May  6:  real: 8,105,  official: 7,996,  infectious: 8,105,  died: 1,  dead: 216

May  7:  real: 8,132,  official: 8,034,  infectious: 8,132,  died: 1,  dead: 217

May  8:  real: 8,157,  official: 8,070,  infectious: 8,157,  died: 1,  dead: 218

May  9:  real: 8,175,  official: 8,099,  infectious: 8,175,  died: 1,  dead: 219

May 10:  real: 8,196,  official: 8,105,  infectious: 8,196,  died: 0,  dead: 219

May 11:  real: 8,219,  official: 8,132,  infectious: 8,219,  died: 5,  dead: 224

May 12:  real: 8,237,  official: 8,157,  infectious: 8,237,  died: 4,  dead: 228

May 13:  real: 8,249,  official: 8,175,  infectious: 8,249,  died: 1,  dead: 229

May 14:  real: 8,257,  official: 8,196,  infectious: 8,257,  died: 3,  dead: 232

May 15:  real: 8,267,  official: 8,219,  infectious: 8,267,  died: 0,  dead: 232

May 16:  real: 8,281,  official: 8,237,  infectious: 8,281,  died: 0,  dead: 232

May 17:  real: 8,309,  official: 8,249,  infectious: 8,309,  died: 0,  dead: 232

May 18:  real: 8,332,  official: 8,257,  infectious: 8,332,  died: 1,  dead: 233

May 19:  real: 8,346,  official: 8,267,  infectious: 8,346,  died: 0,  dead: 233

May 20:  real: 8,352,  official: 8,281,  infectious: 8,352,  died: 1,  dead: 234

May 21:  real: 8,364,  official: 8,309,  infectious: 8,364,  died: 1,  dead: 235

May 22:  real: 8,383,  official: 8,332,  infectious: 8,383,  died: 0,  dead: 235

May 23:  real: 8,401,  official: 8,346,  infectious: 8,401,  died: 0,  dead: 235

May 24:  real: 8,411,  official: 8,352,  infectious: 8,411,  died: 0,  dead: 235

May 25:  real: 8,422,  official: 8,364,  infectious: 8,422,  died: 0,  dead: 235

May 26:  real: 8,437,  official: 8,383,  infectious: 8,437,  died: 0,  dead: 235

May 27:  real: 8,440,  official: 8,401,  infectious: 8,440,  died: 0,  dead: 235

May 28:  real: 8,446,  official: 8,411,  infectious: 8,446,  died: 1,  dead: 236

May 29:  real: 8,455,  official: 8,422,  infectious: 8,455,  died: 0,  dead: 236

May 30:  real: 8,477,  official: 8,437,  infectious: 8,477,  died: 0,  dead: 236

May 31:  real: 8,504,  official: 8,440,  infectious: 8,504,  died: 0,  dead: 236

Jun  1:  real: 8,522,  official: 8,446,  infectious: 8,522,  died: 0,  dead: 236

Jun  2:  real: 8,531,  official: 8,455,  infectious: 8,531,  died: 1,  dead: 237

Jun  3:  real: 8,547,  official: 8,477,  infectious: 8,547,  died: 0,  dead: 237

Jun  4:  real: 8,561,  official: 8,504,  infectious: 8,561,  died: 1,  dead: 238

Jun  5:  real: 8,576,  official: 8,522,  infectious: 8,576,  died: 0,  dead: 238

Jun  6:  real: 8,594,  official: 8,531,  infectious: 8,594,  died: 0,  dead: 238

Jun  7:  real: 8,608,  official: 8,547,  infectious: 8,608,  died: 0,  dead: 238

Jun  8:  real: 8,620,  official: 8,561,  infectious: 8,620,  died: 1,  dead: 239

Jun  9:  real: 8,628,  official: 8,576,  infectious: 8,628,  died: 0,  dead: 239

Jun 10:  real: 8,631,  official: 8,594,  infectious: 8,631,  died: 0,  dead: 239

Jun 11:  real: 8,647,  official: 8,608,  infectious: 8,647,  died: 3,  dead: 242

Jun 12:  real: 8,660,  official: 8,620,  infectious: 8,660,  died: 0,  dead: 242

Jun 13:  real: 8,692,  official: 8,628,  infectious: 8,692,  died: 0,  dead: 242

Jun 14:  real: 8,708,  official: 8,631,  infectious: 8,708,  died: 0,  dead: 242

Jun 15:  real: 8,726,  official: 8,647,  infectious: 8,726,  died: 0,  dead: 242

Jun 16:  real: 8,742,  official: 8,660,  infectious: 8,742,  died: 0,  dead: 242

Jun 17:  real: 8,745,  official: 8,692,  infectious: 8,745,  died: 1,  dead: 243

Jun 18:  real: 8,751,  official: 8,708,  infectious: 8,751,  died: 1,  dead: 244

Jun 19:  real: 8,772,  official: 8,726,  infectious: 8,772,  died: 0,  dead: 244

Jun 20:  real: 8,788,  official: 8,742,  infectious: 8,788,  died: 0,  dead: 244

Jun 21:  real: 8,788,  official: 8,745,  infectious: 8,788,  died: 0,  dead: 244

Jun 22:  real: 8,832,  official: 8,751,  infectious: 8,832,  died: 4,  dead: 248

Jun 23:  real: 8,846,  official: 8,772,  infectious: 8,846,  died: 0,  dead: 248

Jun 24:  real: 8,855,  official: 8,788,  infectious: 8,855,  died: 1,  dead: 249

Jun 25:  real: 8,862,  official: 8,788,  infectious: 8,862,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jun 26:  real: 8,879,  official: 8,832,  infectious: 8,879,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jun 27:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,846,  infectious: 8,896,  died: 0,  dead: 249

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,855,  infectious: 267,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jun 29:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,862,  infectious: 272,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jun 30:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,879,  infectious: 258,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  1:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 249,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  2:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 245,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  3:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 225,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  4:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 211,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  5:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 182,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  6:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 167,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  7:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 149,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  8:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 133,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul  9:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 10:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 124,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 11:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 106,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 12:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 13:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 92,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 14:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 56,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 15:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 16:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 17:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 18:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 19:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 20:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 21:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 22:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 23:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 24:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 25:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 26:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 27:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 28:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 29:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 30:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Jul 31:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  1:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  2:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  3:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  4:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  5:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  6:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  7:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  8:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug  9:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 10:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 11:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 12:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 13:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 14:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 15:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 16:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 17:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 18:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 19:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 20:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 21:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 22:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 23:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 24:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 25:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 26:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 27:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 28:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 29:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 30:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Aug 31:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  1:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  2:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  3:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  4:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  5:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  6:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  7:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  8:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep  9:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 10:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 11:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 12:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 13:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 14:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 15:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 16:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 17:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 18:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 19:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 20:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 21:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 22:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 23:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 24:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 25:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 26:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 27:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 28:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 29:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Sep 30:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  1:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  2:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  3:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  4:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  5:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  6:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  7:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  8:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct  9:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 10:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 11:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 12:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 13:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 14:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 15:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 16:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 17:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 18:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 19:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 20:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 21:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 22:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 23:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 24:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 25:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 26:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 27:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 28:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 29:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 30:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Oct 31:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  1:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  2:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  3:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  4:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  5:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  6:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  7:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  8:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov  9:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 10:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 11:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 12:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 13:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 14:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 15:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 16:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 17:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 18:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 19:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 20:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 21:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 22:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 23:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 24:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 25:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 26:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 27:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 28:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 29:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Nov 30:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  1:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  2:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  3:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  4:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  5:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  6:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  7:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  8:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec  9:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 10:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 11:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 12:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 13:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 14:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 15:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 16:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 17:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 18:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 19:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 20:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 21:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 22:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 23:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 24:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 25:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 26:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 27:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 28:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 29:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 30:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

Dec 31:  real: 8,896,  official: 8,896,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 249

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
          0:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Mar  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
        249:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
        249:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 100.15%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0015
Official uninf: 3,991,104 / Adult Pop.: 4,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.78%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0022
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 100.15%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0015