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COVID-19 Forecast for Mexico, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
114 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: Mon, Jun 29th

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Mexico HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 114 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Mexico run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Mexico are used up, is forecast to be Mon, Jun 29th. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     1,800 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        230:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
      2,063:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     26,598:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     28,661:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Mexico COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.020, at 102.04% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 6,  official: 5,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 6,  official: 6,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 6,  official: 6,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 7,  official: 6,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 7,  official: 6,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 7,  official: 6,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 11,  official: 6,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 12,  official: 7,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 15,  official: 7,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 26,  official: 7,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 43,  official: 11,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 53,  official: 12,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 82,  official: 15,  infectious: 82,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 93,  official: 26,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 118,  official: 43,  infectious: 118,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 164,  official: 53,  infectious: 164,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 203,  official: 82,  infectious: 203,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 251,  official: 93,  infectious: 251,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 316,  official: 118,  infectious: 316,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 20:  real: 367,  official: 164,  infectious: 367,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 21:  real: 405,  official: 203,  infectious: 405,  died: 1,  dead: 2

Mar 22:  real: 475,  official: 251,  infectious: 475,  died: 0,  dead: 2

Mar 23:  real: 585,  official: 316,  infectious: 585,  died: 1,  dead: 3

Mar 24:  real: 717,  official: 367,  infectious: 717,  died: 1,  dead: 4

Mar 25:  real: 848,  official: 405,  infectious: 848,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Mar 26:  real: 993,  official: 475,  infectious: 993,  died: 1,  dead: 6

Mar 27:  real: 1,094,  official: 585,  infectious: 1,094,  died: 2,  dead: 8

Mar 28:  real: 1,215,  official: 717,  infectious: 1,215,  died: 4,  dead: 12

Mar 29:  real: 1,378,  official: 848,  infectious: 1,378,  died: 4,  dead: 16

Mar 30:  real: 1,510,  official: 993,  infectious: 1,510,  died: 4,  dead: 20

Mar 31:  real: 1,688,  official: 1,094,  infectious: 1,688,  died: 8,  dead: 28

Apr  1:  real: 1,890,  official: 1,215,  infectious: 1,890,  died: 1,  dead: 29

Apr  2:  real: 2,143,  official: 1,378,  infectious: 2,143,  died: 8,  dead: 37

Apr  3:  real: 2,439,  official: 1,510,  infectious: 2,439,  died: 13,  dead: 50

Apr  4:  real: 2,785,  official: 1,688,  infectious: 2,785,  died: 10,  dead: 60

Apr  5:  real: 3,181,  official: 1,890,  infectious: 3,181,  died: 19,  dead: 79

Apr  6:  real: 3,441,  official: 2,143,  infectious: 3,441,  died: 15,  dead: 94

Apr  7:  real: 3,844,  official: 2,439,  infectious: 3,844,  died: 31,  dead: 125

Apr  8:  real: 4,219,  official: 2,785,  infectious: 4,219,  died: 16,  dead: 141

Apr  9:  real: 4,661,  official: 3,181,  infectious: 4,661,  died: 33,  dead: 174

Apr 10:  real: 5,014,  official: 3,441,  infectious: 5,014,  died: 20,  dead: 194

Apr 11:  real: 5,399,  official: 3,844,  infectious: 5,399,  died: 39,  dead: 233

Apr 12:  real: 5,847,  official: 4,219,  infectious: 5,847,  died: 40,  dead: 273

Apr 13:  real: 6,297,  official: 4,661,  infectious: 6,297,  died: 23,  dead: 296

Apr 14:  real: 6,875,  official: 5,014,  infectious: 6,875,  died: 36,  dead: 332

Apr 15:  real: 7,497,  official: 5,399,  infectious: 7,497,  died: 74,  dead: 406

Apr 16:  real: 8,261,  official: 5,847,  infectious: 8,261,  died: 43,  dead: 449

Apr 17:  real: 8,772,  official: 6,297,  infectious: 8,772,  died: 37,  dead: 486

Apr 18:  real: 9,501,  official: 6,875,  infectious: 9,501,  died: 60,  dead: 546

Apr 19:  real: 10,544,  official: 7,497,  infectious: 10,544,  died: 104,  dead: 650

Apr 20:  real: 11,633,  official: 8,261,  infectious: 11,633,  died: 36,  dead: 686

Apr 21:  real: 12,872,  official: 8,772,  infectious: 12,872,  died: 26,  dead: 712

Apr 22:  real: 13,842,  official: 9,501,  infectious: 13,842,  died: 145,  dead: 857

Apr 23:  real: 14,677,  official: 10,544,  infectious: 14,677,  died: 113,  dead: 970

Apr 24:  real: 15,529,  official: 11,633,  infectious: 15,529,  died: 99,  dead: 1,069

Apr 25:  real: 16,752,  official: 12,872,  infectious: 16,752,  died: 152,  dead: 1,221

Apr 26:  real: 17,799,  official: 13,842,  infectious: 17,799,  died: 84,  dead: 1,305

Apr 27:  real: 19,224,  official: 14,677,  infectious: 19,224,  died: 46,  dead: 1,351

Apr 28:  real: 20,739,  official: 15,529,  infectious: 20,739,  died: 83,  dead: 1,434

Apr 29:  real: 22,088,  official: 16,752,  infectious: 22,088,  died: 135,  dead: 1,569

Apr 30:  real: 23,471,  official: 17,799,  infectious: 23,471,  died: 163,  dead: 1,732

May  1:  real: 24,905,  official: 19,224,  infectious: 24,905,  died: 127,  dead: 1,859

May  2:  real: 26,025,  official: 20,739,  infectious: 26,025,  died: 113,  dead: 1,972

May  3:  real: 27,634,  official: 22,088,  infectious: 27,634,  died: 89,  dead: 2,061

May  4:  real: 29,616,  official: 23,471,  infectious: 29,616,  died: 93,  dead: 2,154

May  5:  real: 31,522,  official: 24,905,  infectious: 31,522,  died: 117,  dead: 2,271

May  6:  real: 33,460,  official: 26,025,  infectious: 33,460,  died: 236,  dead: 2,507

May  7:  real: 35,022,  official: 27,634,  infectious: 35,022,  died: 197,  dead: 2,704

May  8:  real: 36,327,  official: 29,616,  infectious: 36,327,  died: 257,  dead: 2,961

May  9:  real: 38,324,  official: 31,522,  infectious: 38,324,  died: 199,  dead: 3,160

May 10:  real: 40,186,  official: 33,460,  infectious: 40,186,  died: 193,  dead: 3,353

May 11:  real: 42,595,  official: 35,022,  infectious: 42,595,  died: 112,  dead: 3,465

May 12:  real: 45,032,  official: 36,327,  infectious: 45,032,  died: 108,  dead: 3,573

May 13:  real: 47,144,  official: 38,324,  infectious: 47,144,  died: 353,  dead: 3,926

May 14:  real: 49,219,  official: 40,186,  infectious: 49,219,  died: 294,  dead: 4,220

May 15:  real: 51,633,  official: 42,595,  infectious: 51,633,  died: 257,  dead: 4,477

May 16:  real: 54,346,  official: 45,032,  infectious: 54,346,  died: 290,  dead: 4,767

May 17:  real: 56,594,  official: 47,144,  infectious: 56,594,  died: 278,  dead: 5,045

May 18:  real: 59,567,  official: 49,219,  infectious: 59,567,  died: 132,  dead: 5,177

May 19:  real: 62,527,  official: 51,633,  infectious: 62,527,  died: 155,  dead: 5,332

May 20:  real: 65,856,  official: 54,346,  infectious: 65,856,  died: 334,  dead: 5,666

May 21:  real: 68,620,  official: 56,594,  infectious: 68,620,  died: 424,  dead: 6,090

May 22:  real: 71,105,  official: 59,567,  infectious: 71,105,  died: 420,  dead: 6,510

May 23:  real: 74,560,  official: 62,527,  infectious: 74,560,  died: 479,  dead: 6,989

May 24:  real: 78,023,  official: 65,856,  infectious: 78,023,  died: 190,  dead: 7,179

May 25:  real: 81,400,  official: 68,620,  infectious: 81,400,  died: 215,  dead: 7,394

May 26:  real: 84,627,  official: 71,105,  infectious: 84,627,  died: 239,  dead: 7,633

May 27:  real: 87,512,  official: 74,560,  infectious: 87,512,  died: 501,  dead: 8,134

May 28:  real: 90,664,  official: 78,023,  infectious: 90,664,  died: 463,  dead: 8,597

May 29:  real: 93,435,  official: 81,400,  infectious: 93,435,  died: 447,  dead: 9,044

May 30:  real: 97,326,  official: 84,627,  infectious: 97,326,  died: 371,  dead: 9,415

May 31:  real: 101,238,  official: 87,512,  infectious: 101,238,  died: 364,  dead: 9,779

Jun  1:  real: 105,680,  official: 90,664,  infectious: 105,680,  died: 151,  dead: 9,930

Jun  2:  real: 110,026,  official: 93,435,  infectious: 110,026,  died: 237,  dead: 10,167

Jun  3:  real: 113,619,  official: 97,326,  infectious: 113,619,  died: 470,  dead: 10,637

Jun  4:  real: 117,103,  official: 101,238,  infectious: 117,103,  died: 1,092,  dead: 11,729

Jun  5:  real: 120,102,  official: 105,680,  infectious: 120,102,  died: 816,  dead: 12,545

Jun  6:  real: 124,301,  official: 110,026,  infectious: 124,301,  died: 625,  dead: 13,170

Jun  7:  real: 129,184,  official: 113,619,  infectious: 129,184,  died: 341,  dead: 13,511

Jun  8:  real: 133,974,  official: 117,103,  infectious: 133,974,  died: 188,  dead: 13,699

Jun  9:  real: 139,196,  official: 120,102,  infectious: 139,196,  died: 354,  dead: 14,053

Jun 10:  real: 142,690,  official: 124,301,  infectious: 142,690,  died: 596,  dead: 14,649

Jun 11:  real: 146,837,  official: 129,184,  infectious: 146,837,  died: 708,  dead: 15,357

Jun 12:  real: 150,264,  official: 133,974,  infectious: 150,264,  died: 587,  dead: 15,944

Jun 13:  real: 154,863,  official: 139,196,  infectious: 154,863,  died: 504,  dead: 16,448

Jun 14:  real: 159,793,  official: 142,690,  infectious: 159,793,  died: 424,  dead: 16,872

Jun 15:  real: 165,455,  official: 146,837,  infectious: 165,455,  died: 269,  dead: 17,141

Jun 16:  real: 170,485,  official: 150,264,  infectious: 170,485,  died: 439,  dead: 17,580

Jun 17:  real: 175,202,  official: 154,863,  infectious: 175,202,  died: 730,  dead: 18,310

Jun 18:  real: 180,545,  official: 159,793,  infectious: 180,545,  died: 770,  dead: 19,080

Jun 19:  real: 185,122,  official: 165,455,  infectious: 185,122,  died: 667,  dead: 19,747

Jun 20:  real: 191,410,  official: 170,485,  infectious: 191,410,  died: 647,  dead: 20,394

Jun 21:  real: 196,847,  official: 175,202,  infectious: 196,847,  died: 387,  dead: 20,781

Jun 22:  real: 202,951,  official: 180,545,  infectious: 202,951,  died: 1,044,  dead: 21,825

Jun 23:  real: 208,392,  official: 185,122,  infectious: 208,392,  died: 759,  dead: 22,584

Jun 24:  real: 212,802,  official: 191,410,  infectious: 212,802,  died: 793,  dead: 23,377

Jun 25:  real: 216,852,  official: 196,847,  infectious: 216,852,  died: 947,  dead: 24,324

Jun 26:  real: 220,657,  official: 202,951,  infectious: 220,657,  died: 736,  dead: 25,060

Jun 27:  real: 226,089,  official: 208,392,  infectious: 226,089,  died: 719,  dead: 25,779

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 227,803,  official: 212,802,  infectious: 83,987,  died: 88,  dead: 25,867


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 29:  real: 229,545,  official: 216,852,  infectious: 85,373,  died: 75,  dead: 25,942

Jun 30:  real: 231,230,  official: 220,657,  infectious: 82,573,  died: 85,  dead: 26,027

Jul  1:  real: 232,846,  official: 226,089,  infectious: 79,201,  died: 75,  dead: 26,102

Jul  2:  real: 234,423,  official: 227,803,  infectious: 77,280,  died: 61,  dead: 26,163

Jul  3:  real: 235,943,  official: 229,545,  infectious: 74,507,  died: 216,  dead: 26,379

Jul  4:  real: 237,420,  official: 231,230,  infectious: 72,393,  died: 191,  dead: 26,570

Jul  5:  real: 238,836,  official: 232,846,  infectious: 69,421,  died: 230,  dead: 26,800

Jul  6:  real: 240,187,  official: 234,423,  infectious: 66,211,  died: 138,  dead: 26,938

Jul  7:  real: 241,461,  official: 235,943,  infectious: 62,418,  died: 112,  dead: 27,050

Jul  8:  real: 242,661,  official: 237,420,  infectious: 58,832,  died: 103,  dead: 27,153

Jul  9:  real: 243,803,  official: 238,836,  infectious: 55,979,  died: 97,  dead: 27,250

Jul 10:  real: 244,874,  official: 240,187,  infectious: 52,507,  died: 138,  dead: 27,388

Jul 11:  real: 245,887,  official: 241,461,  infectious: 49,647,  died: 87,  dead: 27,475

Jul 12:  real: 246,812,  official: 242,661,  infectious: 45,358,  died: 88,  dead: 27,563

Jul 13:  real: 247,663,  official: 243,803,  infectious: 41,701,  died: 85,  dead: 27,648

Jul 14:  real: 248,427,  official: 244,874,  infectious: 37,433,  died: 82,  dead: 27,730

Jul 15:  real: 249,113,  official: 245,887,  infectious: 33,629,  died: 80,  dead: 27,810

Jul 16:  real: 249,737,  official: 246,812,  infectious: 30,577,  died: 77,  dead: 27,887

Jul 17:  real: 250,303,  official: 247,663,  infectious: 27,746,  died: 75,  dead: 27,962

Jul 18:  real: 250,814,  official: 248,427,  infectious: 25,064,  died: 72,  dead: 28,034

Jul 19:  real: 251,243,  official: 249,113,  infectious: 21,037,  died: 68,  dead: 28,102

Jul 20:  real: 251,650,  official: 249,737,  infectious: 19,942,  died: 64,  dead: 28,166

Jul 21:  real: 252,033,  official: 250,303,  infectious: 18,756,  died: 61,  dead: 28,227


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
Jul 22:  real: 252,392,  official: 250,814,  infectious: 17,579,  died: 58,  dead: 28,285

Jul 23:  real: 252,727,  official: 251,243,  infectious: 16,434,  died: 54,  dead: 28,339

Jul 24:  real: 253,039,  official: 251,650,  infectious: 15,315,  died: 51,  dead: 28,390

Jul 25:  real: 253,330,  official: 252,033,  infectious: 14,266,  died: 20,  dead: 28,410

Jul 26:  real: 253,601,  official: 252,392,  infectious: 13,263,  died: 0,  dead: 28,410

Jul 27:  real: 253,852,  official: 252,727,  infectious: 12,300,  died: 0,  dead: 28,410

Jul 28:  real: 254,084,  official: 253,039,  infectious: 11,379,  died: 0,  dead: 28,410

Jul 29:  real: 254,298,  official: 253,330,  infectious: 10,512,  died: 14,  dead: 28,424

Jul 30:  real: 254,496,  official: 253,601,  infectious: 9,700,  died: 23,  dead: 28,447

Jul 31:  real: 254,678,  official: 253,852,  infectious: 8,921,  died: 20,  dead: 28,467

Aug  1:  real: 254,845,  official: 254,084,  infectious: 8,186,  died: 18,  dead: 28,485

Aug  2:  real: 254,998,  official: 254,298,  infectious: 7,486,  died: 17,  dead: 28,502

Aug  3:  real: 255,138,  official: 254,496,  infectious: 6,848,  died: 15,  dead: 28,517

Aug  4:  real: 255,266,  official: 254,678,  infectious: 6,259,  died: 14,  dead: 28,531

Aug  5:  real: 255,383,  official: 254,845,  infectious: 5,730,  died: 11,  dead: 28,542

Aug  6:  real: 255,490,  official: 254,998,  infectious: 5,256,  died: 11,  dead: 28,553

Aug  7:  real: 255,588,  official: 255,138,  infectious: 4,824,  died: 10,  dead: 28,563

Aug  8:  real: 255,678,  official: 255,266,  infectious: 4,433,  died: 9,  dead: 28,572

Aug  9:  real: 255,761,  official: 255,383,  infectious: 4,081,  died: 9,  dead: 28,581

Aug 10:  real: 255,838,  official: 255,490,  infectious: 3,788,  died: 8,  dead: 28,589

Aug 11:  real: 255,910,  official: 255,588,  infectious: 3,509,  died: 7,  dead: 28,596

Aug 12:  real: 255,976,  official: 255,678,  infectious: 3,248,  died: 7,  dead: 28,603

Aug 13:  real: 256,037,  official: 255,761,  infectious: 3,003,  died: 6,  dead: 28,609

Aug 14:  real: 256,094,  official: 255,838,  infectious: 2,774,  died: 6,  dead: 28,615

Aug 15:  real: 256,146,  official: 255,910,  infectious: 2,560,  died: 5,  dead: 28,620

Aug 16:  real: 256,194,  official: 255,976,  infectious: 2,361,  died: 5,  dead: 28,625

Aug 17:  real: 256,238,  official: 256,037,  infectious: 2,176,  died: 4,  dead: 28,629

Aug 18:  real: 256,279,  official: 256,094,  infectious: 2,004,  died: 4,  dead: 28,633

Aug 19:  real: 256,317,  official: 256,146,  infectious: 1,844,  died: 3,  dead: 28,636

Aug 20:  real: 256,352,  official: 256,194,  infectious: 1,697,  died: 3,  dead: 28,639

Aug 21:  real: 256,384,  official: 256,238,  infectious: 1,562,  died: 3,  dead: 28,642

Aug 22:  real: 256,413,  official: 256,279,  infectious: 1,438,  died: 2,  dead: 28,644

Aug 23:  real: 256,440,  official: 256,317,  infectious: 1,323,  died: 2,  dead: 28,646

Aug 24:  real: 256,465,  official: 256,352,  infectious: 1,217,  died: 2,  dead: 28,648

Aug 25:  real: 256,488,  official: 256,384,  infectious: 1,121,  died: 2,  dead: 28,650

Aug 26:  real: 256,509,  official: 256,413,  infectious: 1,034,  died: 2,  dead: 28,652

Aug 27:  real: 256,528,  official: 256,440,  infectious: 953,  died: 1,  dead: 28,653

Aug 28:  real: 256,546,  official: 256,465,  infectious: 879,  died: 1,  dead: 28,654

Aug 29:  real: 256,563,  official: 256,488,  infectious: 811,  died: 1,  dead: 28,655

Aug 30:  real: 256,578,  official: 256,509,  infectious: 750,  died: 1,  dead: 28,656

Aug 31:  real: 256,592,  official: 256,528,  infectious: 694,  died: 1,  dead: 28,657

Sep  1:  real: 256,605,  official: 256,546,  infectious: 641,  died: 1,  dead: 28,658

Sep  2:  real: 256,617,  official: 256,563,  infectious: 591,  died: 1,  dead: 28,659

Sep  3:  real: 256,628,  official: 256,578,  infectious: 545,  died: 1,  dead: 28,660

Sep  4:  real: 256,638,  official: 256,592,  infectious: 504,  died: 1,  dead: 28,661

Sep  5:  real: 256,647,  official: 256,605,  infectious: 464,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep  6:  real: 256,656,  official: 256,617,  infectious: 428,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep  7:  real: 256,664,  official: 256,628,  infectious: 396,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep  8:  real: 256,671,  official: 256,638,  infectious: 367,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep  9:  real: 256,678,  official: 256,647,  infectious: 340,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 10:  real: 256,684,  official: 256,656,  infectious: 313,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 11:  real: 256,690,  official: 256,664,  infectious: 289,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 12:  real: 256,695,  official: 256,671,  infectious: 267,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 13:  real: 256,700,  official: 256,678,  infectious: 248,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 14:  real: 256,705,  official: 256,684,  infectious: 230,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 15:  real: 256,709,  official: 256,690,  infectious: 213,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 16:  real: 256,713,  official: 256,695,  infectious: 198,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 17:  real: 256,717,  official: 256,700,  infectious: 184,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 18:  real: 256,720,  official: 256,705,  infectious: 170,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 19:  real: 256,723,  official: 256,709,  infectious: 157,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 20:  real: 256,726,  official: 256,713,  infectious: 144,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 21:  real: 256,729,  official: 256,717,  infectious: 134,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 22:  real: 256,732,  official: 256,720,  infectious: 125,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 23:  real: 256,734,  official: 256,723,  infectious: 116,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 24:  real: 256,736,  official: 256,726,  infectious: 108,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 25:  real: 256,738,  official: 256,729,  infectious: 100,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 26:  real: 256,740,  official: 256,732,  infectious: 93,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 27:  real: 256,742,  official: 256,734,  infectious: 87,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 28:  real: 256,744,  official: 256,736,  infectious: 81,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 29:  real: 256,746,  official: 256,738,  infectious: 76,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Sep 30:  real: 256,747,  official: 256,740,  infectious: 72,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  1:  real: 256,748,  official: 256,742,  infectious: 68,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  2:  real: 256,749,  official: 256,744,  infectious: 63,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  3:  real: 256,750,  official: 256,746,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  4:  real: 256,751,  official: 256,747,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  5:  real: 256,752,  official: 256,748,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  6:  real: 256,753,  official: 256,749,  infectious: 46,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  7:  real: 256,754,  official: 256,750,  infectious: 43,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  8:  real: 256,755,  official: 256,751,  infectious: 40,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct  9:  real: 256,756,  official: 256,752,  infectious: 37,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 10:  real: 256,757,  official: 256,753,  infectious: 35,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 11:  real: 256,758,  official: 256,754,  infectious: 33,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 12:  real: 256,759,  official: 256,755,  infectious: 31,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 13:  real: 256,760,  official: 256,756,  infectious: 29,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 14:  real: 256,761,  official: 256,757,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 15:  real: 256,762,  official: 256,758,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 16:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,759,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 17:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,760,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 18:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,761,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 19:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,762,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 20:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 21:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 22:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 23:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 24:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 25:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 26:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 27:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 28:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 29:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 30:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Oct 31:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  1:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  2:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  3:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  4:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  5:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  6:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  7:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  8:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov  9:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 10:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 11:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 12:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 13:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 14:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 15:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 16:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 17:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 18:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 19:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 20:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 21:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 22:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 23:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 24:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 25:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 26:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 27:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 28:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 29:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Nov 30:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  1:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  2:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  3:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  4:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  5:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  6:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  7:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  8:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec  9:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 10:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 11:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 12:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 13:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 14:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 15:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 16:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 17:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 18:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 19:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 20:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 21:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 22:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 23:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 24:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 25:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 26:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 27:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 28:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 29:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 30:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

Dec 31:  real: 256,763,  official: 256,763,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 28,661

As of Dec 31 evening:
RUN OUT OF     1,800 H VENTILATORS:   Mon, Jun 29th
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
        230:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  5.
      2,063:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
     26,598:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     28,661:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.04%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0204
Official uninf: 84,773,911 / Adult Pop.: 85,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.73%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0027
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.04%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0204