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COVID-19 Forecast for Indonesia, Wed, Jul 1st


10x in
103 days
H-Day
Postponed!

V-day: NEVER

Wed, Jul 1st: NEVER days until H-Day: ALL Indonesia HOSPITALS FULL

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

G: Mar 29: Use Sears stores for MASH space

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different.
Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20.
A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in,
and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population
that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat.
Forced deaths start about a week after when the
red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region,
meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators.
Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the
yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region,
and you run out of staffed hospital bed space.
Why a week?  Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed
until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients
all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon.

As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the
actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink
in the black Death rate simulation line at Today.
Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated,
in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from
avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away.
Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June
is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions.
We are working to improve this simulation factor soon.

Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus.  This may be off.

As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop
in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation
finally kicking in, or under-counting.  We are working on coming up with a model for this.
Since the log Growth curve has recently changed
and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S.,
we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast.

Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected.
Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Wed, Jul 1st)

Wed, Jul 1, 2020:

The curve is now 10x in 103 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in Indonesia run out of space, is forecast to be NEVER. And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in Indonesia are used up, is forecast to be NEVER. May the officials use this time wisely.

SUMMARY:

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         19:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,186:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,186:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Note: Uses latest data and model from Wed, Jul 1st, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Indonesia COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Wed, Jul  1, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.023, at 102.27% Growth per day)
        
Starting Run:
Mar  1:  real: 2,  official: 0,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 4,  official: 2,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 4,  official: 2,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 6,  official: 2,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 19,  official: 2,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 27,  official: 4,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 34,  official: 4,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 34,  official: 6,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 69,  official: 19,  infectious: 69,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 96,  official: 27,  infectious: 96,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 117,  official: 34,  infectious: 117,  died: 1,  dead: 1

Mar 12:  real: 134,  official: 34,  infectious: 134,  died: 0,  dead: 1

Mar 13:  real: 172,  official: 69,  infectious: 172,  died: 3,  dead: 4

Mar 14:  real: 227,  official: 96,  infectious: 227,  died: 1,  dead: 5

Mar 15:  real: 309,  official: 117,  infectious: 309,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 16:  real: 369,  official: 134,  infectious: 369,  died: 0,  dead: 5

Mar 17:  real: 450,  official: 172,  infectious: 450,  died: 2,  dead: 7

Mar 18:  real: 514,  official: 227,  infectious: 514,  died: 12,  dead: 19

Mar 19:  real: 579,  official: 309,  infectious: 579,  died: 6,  dead: 25

Mar 20:  real: 686,  official: 369,  infectious: 686,  died: 7,  dead: 32

Mar 21:  real: 790,  official: 450,  infectious: 790,  died: 6,  dead: 38

Mar 22:  real: 893,  official: 514,  infectious: 893,  died: 10,  dead: 48

Mar 23:  real: 1,046,  official: 579,  infectious: 1,046,  died: 1,  dead: 49

Mar 24:  real: 1,155,  official: 686,  infectious: 1,155,  died: 6,  dead: 55

Mar 25:  real: 1,285,  official: 790,  infectious: 1,285,  died: 3,  dead: 58

Mar 26:  real: 1,414,  official: 893,  infectious: 1,414,  died: 20,  dead: 78

Mar 27:  real: 1,528,  official: 1,046,  infectious: 1,528,  died: 9,  dead: 87

Mar 28:  real: 1,677,  official: 1,155,  infectious: 1,677,  died: 15,  dead: 102

Mar 29:  real: 1,790,  official: 1,285,  infectious: 1,790,  died: 12,  dead: 114

Mar 30:  real: 1,986,  official: 1,414,  infectious: 1,986,  died: 8,  dead: 122

Mar 31:  real: 2,092,  official: 1,528,  infectious: 2,092,  died: 14,  dead: 136

Apr  1:  real: 2,273,  official: 1,677,  infectious: 2,273,  died: 21,  dead: 157

Apr  2:  real: 2,491,  official: 1,790,  infectious: 2,491,  died: 13,  dead: 170

Apr  3:  real: 2,738,  official: 1,986,  infectious: 2,738,  died: 11,  dead: 181

Apr  4:  real: 2,956,  official: 2,092,  infectious: 2,956,  died: 10,  dead: 191

Apr  5:  real: 3,293,  official: 2,273,  infectious: 3,293,  died: 7,  dead: 198

Apr  6:  real: 3,512,  official: 2,491,  infectious: 3,512,  died: 11,  dead: 209

Apr  7:  real: 3,842,  official: 2,738,  infectious: 3,842,  died: 12,  dead: 221

Apr  8:  real: 4,241,  official: 2,956,  infectious: 4,241,  died: 19,  dead: 240

Apr  9:  real: 4,557,  official: 3,293,  infectious: 4,557,  died: 40,  dead: 280

Apr 10:  real: 4,839,  official: 3,512,  infectious: 4,839,  died: 26,  dead: 306

Apr 11:  real: 5,136,  official: 3,842,  infectious: 5,136,  died: 21,  dead: 327

Apr 12:  real: 5,516,  official: 4,241,  infectious: 5,516,  died: 46,  dead: 373

Apr 13:  real: 5,923,  official: 4,557,  infectious: 5,923,  died: 26,  dead: 399

Apr 14:  real: 6,248,  official: 4,839,  infectious: 6,248,  died: 60,  dead: 459

Apr 15:  real: 6,575,  official: 5,136,  infectious: 6,575,  died: 10,  dead: 469

Apr 16:  real: 6,760,  official: 5,516,  infectious: 6,760,  died: 27,  dead: 496

Apr 17:  real: 7,135,  official: 5,923,  infectious: 7,135,  died: 24,  dead: 520

Apr 18:  real: 7,418,  official: 6,248,  infectious: 7,418,  died: 15,  dead: 535

Apr 19:  real: 7,775,  official: 6,575,  infectious: 7,775,  died: 47,  dead: 582

Apr 20:  real: 8,211,  official: 6,760,  infectious: 8,211,  died: 8,  dead: 590

Apr 21:  real: 8,607,  official: 7,135,  infectious: 8,607,  died: 26,  dead: 616

Apr 22:  real: 8,882,  official: 7,418,  infectious: 8,882,  died: 19,  dead: 635

Apr 23:  real: 9,096,  official: 7,775,  infectious: 9,096,  died: 12,  dead: 647

Apr 24:  real: 9,511,  official: 8,211,  infectious: 9,511,  died: 42,  dead: 689

Apr 25:  real: 9,771,  official: 8,607,  infectious: 9,771,  died: 31,  dead: 720

Apr 26:  real: 10,118,  official: 8,882,  infectious: 10,118,  died: 23,  dead: 743

Apr 27:  real: 10,551,  official: 9,096,  infectious: 10,551,  died: 22,  dead: 765

Apr 28:  real: 10,843,  official: 9,511,  infectious: 10,843,  died: 8,  dead: 773

Apr 29:  real: 11,192,  official: 9,771,  infectious: 11,192,  died: 11,  dead: 784

Apr 30:  real: 11,587,  official: 10,118,  infectious: 11,587,  died: 8,  dead: 792

May  1:  real: 12,071,  official: 10,551,  infectious: 12,071,  died: 8,  dead: 800

May  2:  real: 12,438,  official: 10,843,  infectious: 12,438,  died: 31,  dead: 831

May  3:  real: 12,776,  official: 11,192,  infectious: 12,776,  died: 14,  dead: 845

May  4:  real: 13,112,  official: 11,587,  infectious: 13,112,  died: 19,  dead: 864

May  5:  real: 13,645,  official: 12,071,  infectious: 13,645,  died: 8,  dead: 872

May  6:  real: 14,032,  official: 12,438,  infectious: 14,032,  died: 23,  dead: 895

May  7:  real: 14,265,  official: 12,776,  infectious: 14,265,  died: 35,  dead: 930

May  8:  real: 14,749,  official: 13,112,  infectious: 14,749,  died: 13,  dead: 943

May  9:  real: 15,438,  official: 13,645,  infectious: 15,438,  died: 16,  dead: 959

May 10:  real: 16,006,  official: 14,032,  infectious: 16,006,  died: 14,  dead: 973

May 11:  real: 16,496,  official: 14,265,  infectious: 16,496,  died: 18,  dead: 991

May 12:  real: 17,025,  official: 14,749,  infectious: 17,025,  died: 16,  dead: 1,007

May 13:  real: 17,514,  official: 15,438,  infectious: 17,514,  died: 21,  dead: 1,028

May 14:  real: 18,010,  official: 16,006,  infectious: 18,010,  died: 15,  dead: 1,043

May 15:  real: 18,496,  official: 16,496,  infectious: 18,496,  died: 33,  dead: 1,076

May 16:  real: 19,189,  official: 17,025,  infectious: 19,189,  died: 13,  dead: 1,089

May 17:  real: 20,162,  official: 17,514,  infectious: 20,162,  died: 59,  dead: 1,148

May 18:  real: 20,796,  official: 18,010,  infectious: 20,796,  died: 43,  dead: 1,191

May 19:  real: 21,745,  official: 18,496,  infectious: 21,745,  died: 30,  dead: 1,221

May 20:  real: 22,271,  official: 19,189,  infectious: 22,271,  died: 21,  dead: 1,242

May 21:  real: 22,750,  official: 20,162,  infectious: 22,750,  died: 36,  dead: 1,278

May 22:  real: 23,165,  official: 20,796,  infectious: 23,165,  died: 48,  dead: 1,326

May 23:  real: 23,851,  official: 21,745,  infectious: 23,851,  died: 25,  dead: 1,351

May 24:  real: 24,538,  official: 22,271,  infectious: 24,538,  died: 21,  dead: 1,372

May 25:  real: 25,216,  official: 22,750,  infectious: 25,216,  died: 19,  dead: 1,391

May 26:  real: 25,773,  official: 23,165,  infectious: 25,773,  died: 27,  dead: 1,418

May 27:  real: 26,473,  official: 23,851,  infectious: 26,473,  died: 55,  dead: 1,473

May 28:  real: 26,940,  official: 24,538,  infectious: 26,940,  died: 23,  dead: 1,496

May 29:  real: 27,549,  official: 25,216,  infectious: 27,549,  died: 24,  dead: 1,520

May 30:  real: 28,233,  official: 25,773,  infectious: 28,233,  died: 53,  dead: 1,573

May 31:  real: 28,818,  official: 26,473,  infectious: 28,818,  died: 40,  dead: 1,613

Jun  1:  real: 29,521,  official: 26,940,  infectious: 29,521,  died: 28,  dead: 1,641

Jun  2:  real: 30,514,  official: 27,549,  infectious: 30,514,  died: 22,  dead: 1,663

Jun  3:  real: 31,186,  official: 28,233,  infectious: 31,186,  died: 35,  dead: 1,698

Jun  4:  real: 32,033,  official: 28,818,  infectious: 32,033,  died: 23,  dead: 1,721

Jun  5:  real: 33,076,  official: 29,521,  infectious: 33,076,  died: 49,  dead: 1,770

Jun  6:  real: 34,316,  official: 30,514,  infectious: 34,316,  died: 31,  dead: 1,801

Jun  7:  real: 35,295,  official: 31,186,  infectious: 35,295,  died: 50,  dead: 1,851

Jun  8:  real: 36,406,  official: 32,033,  infectious: 36,406,  died: 32,  dead: 1,883

Jun  9:  real: 37,420,  official: 33,076,  infectious: 37,420,  died: 40,  dead: 1,923

Jun 10:  real: 38,277,  official: 34,316,  infectious: 38,277,  died: 36,  dead: 1,959

Jun 11:  real: 39,294,  official: 35,295,  infectious: 39,294,  died: 41,  dead: 2,000

Jun 12:  real: 40,400,  official: 36,406,  infectious: 40,400,  died: 48,  dead: 2,048

Jun 13:  real: 41,431,  official: 37,420,  infectious: 41,431,  died: 43,  dead: 2,091

Jun 14:  real: 42,762,  official: 38,277,  infectious: 42,762,  died: 43,  dead: 2,134

Jun 15:  real: 43,803,  official: 39,294,  infectious: 43,803,  died: 64,  dead: 2,198

Jun 16:  real: 45,029,  official: 40,400,  infectious: 45,029,  died: 33,  dead: 2,231

Jun 17:  real: 45,891,  official: 41,431,  infectious: 45,891,  died: 45,  dead: 2,276

Jun 18:  real: 46,845,  official: 42,762,  infectious: 46,845,  died: 63,  dead: 2,339

Jun 19:  real: 47,896,  official: 43,803,  infectious: 47,896,  died: 34,  dead: 2,373

Jun 20:  real: 49,009,  official: 45,029,  infectious: 49,009,  died: 56,  dead: 2,429

Jun 21:  real: 50,187,  official: 45,891,  infectious: 50,187,  died: 36,  dead: 2,465

Jun 22:  real: 51,427,  official: 46,845,  infectious: 51,427,  died: 35,  dead: 2,500

Jun 23:  real: 52,812,  official: 47,896,  infectious: 52,812,  died: 35,  dead: 2,535

Jun 24:  real: 54,010,  official: 49,009,  infectious: 54,010,  died: 38,  dead: 2,573

Jun 25:  real: 55,092,  official: 50,187,  infectious: 55,092,  died: 47,  dead: 2,620

Jun 26:  real: 56,385,  official: 51,427,  infectious: 56,385,  died: 63,  dead: 2,683

Jun 27:  real: 57,770,  official: 52,812,  infectious: 57,770,  died: 37,  dead: 2,720

...simulation engine starts here...
Jun 28:  real: 58,208,  official: 54,010,  infectious: 19,319,  died: 15,  dead: 2,735

Jun 29:  real: 58,659,  official: 55,092,  infectious: 19,883,  died: 16,  dead: 2,751

Jun 30:  real: 59,096,  official: 56,385,  infectious: 19,247,  died: 17,  dead: 2,768

Jul  1:  real: 59,520,  official: 57,770,  infectious: 18,690,  died: 19,  dead: 2,787

Jul  2:  real: 59,934,  official: 58,208,  infectious: 18,233,  died: 16,  dead: 2,803

Jul  3:  real: 60,334,  official: 58,659,  infectious: 17,622,  died: 14,  dead: 2,817

Jul  4:  real: 60,718,  official: 59,096,  infectious: 16,914,  died: 17,  dead: 2,834

Jul  5:  real: 61,087,  official: 59,520,  infectious: 16,283,  died: 19,  dead: 2,853

Jul  6:  real: 61,437,  official: 59,934,  infectious: 15,407,  died: 0,  dead: 2,853

Jul  7:  real: 61,771,  official: 60,334,  infectious: 14,715,  died: 15,  dead: 2,868

Jul  8:  real: 62,085,  official: 60,718,  infectious: 13,855,  died: 16,  dead: 2,884

Jul  9:  real: 62,389,  official: 61,087,  infectious: 13,409,  died: 17,  dead: 2,901

Jul 10:  real: 62,681,  official: 61,437,  infectious: 12,870,  died: 19,  dead: 2,920

Jul 11:  real: 62,959,  official: 61,771,  infectious: 12,245,  died: 16,  dead: 2,936

Jul 12:  real: 63,221,  official: 62,085,  infectious: 11,561,  died: 14,  dead: 2,950

Jul 13:  real: 63,466,  official: 62,389,  infectious: 10,815,  died: 17,  dead: 2,967

Jul 14:  real: 63,693,  official: 62,681,  infectious: 10,005,  died: 19,  dead: 2,986

Jul 15:  real: 63,899,  official: 62,959,  infectious: 9,066,  died: 12,  dead: 2,998

Jul 16:  real: 64,086,  official: 63,221,  infectious: 8,262,  died: 12,  dead: 3,010

Jul 17:  real: 64,257,  official: 63,466,  infectious: 7,532,  died: 12,  dead: 3,022

Jul 18:  real: 64,407,  official: 63,693,  infectious: 6,617,  died: 11,  dead: 3,033

Jul 19:  real: 64,534,  official: 63,899,  infectious: 5,618,  died: 11,  dead: 3,044

Jul 20:  real: 64,656,  official: 64,086,  infectious: 5,358,  died: 11,  dead: 3,055

Jul 21:  real: 64,771,  official: 64,257,  infectious: 5,067,  died: 10,  dead: 3,065

Jul 22:  real: 64,880,  official: 64,407,  infectious: 4,785,  died: 9,  dead: 3,074

Jul 23:  real: 64,982,  official: 64,534,  infectious: 4,509,  died: 9,  dead: 3,083

Jul 24:  real: 65,078,  official: 64,656,  infectious: 4,239,  died: 9,  dead: 3,092

Jul 25:  real: 65,168,  official: 64,771,  infectious: 3,977,  died: 8,  dead: 3,100

Jul 26:  real: 65,253,  official: 64,880,  infectious: 3,726,  died: 8,  dead: 3,108

Jul 27:  real: 65,332,  official: 64,982,  infectious: 3,484,  died: 7,  dead: 3,115

Jul 28:  real: 65,406,  official: 65,078,  infectious: 3,256,  died: 7,  dead: 3,122

Jul 29:  real: 65,475,  official: 65,168,  infectious: 3,039,  died: 7,  dead: 3,129

Jul 30:  real: 65,539,  official: 65,253,  infectious: 2,837,  died: 6,  dead: 3,135

Jul 31:  real: 65,599,  official: 65,332,  infectious: 2,639,  died: 6,  dead: 3,141

Aug  1:  real: 65,654,  official: 65,406,  infectious: 2,446,  died: 5,  dead: 3,146

Aug  2:  real: 65,705,  official: 65,475,  infectious: 2,262,  died: 4,  dead: 3,150

Aug  3:  real: 65,752,  official: 65,539,  infectious: 2,088,  died: 4,  dead: 3,154

Aug  4:  real: 65,796,  official: 65,599,  infectious: 1,924,  died: 3,  dead: 3,157

Aug  5:  real: 65,836,  official: 65,654,  infectious: 1,771,  died: 3,  dead: 3,160

Aug  6:  real: 65,873,  official: 65,705,  infectious: 1,633,  died: 3,  dead: 3,163

Aug  7:  real: 65,907,  official: 65,752,  infectious: 1,508,  died: 2,  dead: 3,165

Aug  8:  real: 65,939,  official: 65,796,  infectious: 1,393,  died: 2,  dead: 3,167

Aug  9:  real: 65,968,  official: 65,836,  infectious: 1,293,  died: 2,  dead: 3,169

Aug 10:  real: 65,995,  official: 65,873,  infectious: 1,210,  died: 2,  dead: 3,171

Aug 11:  real: 66,021,  official: 65,907,  infectious: 1,131,  died: 2,  dead: 3,173

Aug 12:  real: 66,045,  official: 65,939,  infectious: 1,055,  died: 2,  dead: 3,175

Aug 13:  real: 66,067,  official: 65,968,  infectious: 984,  died: 2,  dead: 3,177

Aug 14:  real: 66,088,  official: 65,995,  infectious: 917,  died: 1,  dead: 3,178

Aug 15:  real: 66,107,  official: 66,021,  infectious: 853,  died: 1,  dead: 3,179

Aug 16:  real: 66,125,  official: 66,045,  infectious: 795,  died: 1,  dead: 3,180

Aug 17:  real: 66,142,  official: 66,067,  infectious: 739,  died: 1,  dead: 3,181

Aug 18:  real: 66,158,  official: 66,088,  infectious: 687,  died: 1,  dead: 3,182

Aug 19:  real: 66,172,  official: 66,107,  infectious: 639,  died: 1,  dead: 3,183

Aug 20:  real: 66,185,  official: 66,125,  infectious: 594,  died: 1,  dead: 3,184

Aug 21:  real: 66,198,  official: 66,142,  infectious: 551,  died: 1,  dead: 3,185

Aug 22:  real: 66,210,  official: 66,158,  infectious: 511,  died: 1,  dead: 3,186

Aug 23:  real: 66,221,  official: 66,172,  infectious: 475,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 24:  real: 66,231,  official: 66,185,  infectious: 441,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 25:  real: 66,240,  official: 66,198,  infectious: 411,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 26:  real: 66,249,  official: 66,210,  infectious: 383,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 27:  real: 66,257,  official: 66,221,  infectious: 357,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 28:  real: 66,265,  official: 66,231,  infectious: 333,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 29:  real: 66,272,  official: 66,240,  infectious: 311,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 30:  real: 66,279,  official: 66,249,  infectious: 290,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Aug 31:  real: 66,285,  official: 66,257,  infectious: 272,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  1:  real: 66,291,  official: 66,265,  infectious: 256,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  2:  real: 66,296,  official: 66,272,  infectious: 239,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  3:  real: 66,301,  official: 66,279,  infectious: 224,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  4:  real: 66,306,  official: 66,285,  infectious: 210,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  5:  real: 66,310,  official: 66,291,  infectious: 197,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  6:  real: 66,314,  official: 66,296,  infectious: 184,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  7:  real: 66,318,  official: 66,301,  infectious: 171,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  8:  real: 66,322,  official: 66,306,  infectious: 159,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep  9:  real: 66,325,  official: 66,310,  infectious: 148,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 10:  real: 66,328,  official: 66,314,  infectious: 139,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 11:  real: 66,331,  official: 66,318,  infectious: 130,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 12:  real: 66,334,  official: 66,322,  infectious: 121,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 13:  real: 66,337,  official: 66,325,  infectious: 113,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 14:  real: 66,339,  official: 66,328,  infectious: 106,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 15:  real: 66,341,  official: 66,331,  infectious: 100,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 16:  real: 66,343,  official: 66,334,  infectious: 94,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 17:  real: 66,345,  official: 66,337,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 18:  real: 66,347,  official: 66,339,  infectious: 83,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 19:  real: 66,349,  official: 66,341,  infectious: 78,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 20:  real: 66,351,  official: 66,343,  infectious: 74,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 21:  real: 66,353,  official: 66,345,  infectious: 70,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 22:  real: 66,354,  official: 66,347,  infectious: 66,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 23:  real: 66,355,  official: 66,349,  infectious: 62,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 24:  real: 66,356,  official: 66,351,  infectious: 58,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 25:  real: 66,357,  official: 66,353,  infectious: 54,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 26:  real: 66,358,  official: 66,354,  infectious: 50,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 27:  real: 66,359,  official: 66,355,  infectious: 47,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 28:  real: 66,360,  official: 66,356,  infectious: 44,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 29:  real: 66,361,  official: 66,357,  infectious: 41,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Sep 30:  real: 66,362,  official: 66,358,  infectious: 38,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  1:  real: 66,363,  official: 66,359,  infectious: 36,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  2:  real: 66,364,  official: 66,360,  infectious: 34,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  3:  real: 66,365,  official: 66,361,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  4:  real: 66,366,  official: 66,362,  infectious: 30,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  5:  real: 66,367,  official: 66,363,  infectious: 28,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  6:  real: 66,368,  official: 66,364,  infectious: 27,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  7:  real: 66,369,  official: 66,365,  infectious: 26,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  8:  real: 66,370,  official: 66,366,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct  9:  real: 66,371,  official: 66,367,  infectious: 24,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 10:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,368,  infectious: 23,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 11:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,369,  infectious: 22,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 12:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,370,  infectious: 21,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 13:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,371,  infectious: 19,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 14:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 18,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 15:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 17,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 16:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 16,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 17:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 15,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 18:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 19:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 13,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 20:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 21:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 11,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 22:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 10,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 23:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 9,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 24:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 8,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 25:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 26:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 6,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 27:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 5,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 28:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 29:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 3,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 30:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 2,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Oct 31:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 1,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  1:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  2:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  3:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  4:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  5:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  6:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  7:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  8:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov  9:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 10:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 11:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 12:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 13:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 14:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 15:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 16:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 17:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 18:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 19:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 20:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 21:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 22:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 23:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 24:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 25:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 26:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 27:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 28:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 29:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Nov 30:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  1:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  2:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  3:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  4:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  5:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  6:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  7:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  8:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec  9:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 10:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 11:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 12:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 13:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 14:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 15:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 16:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 17:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 18:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 19:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 20:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 21:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 22:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 23:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 24:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 25:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 26:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 27:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 28:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 29:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 30:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

Dec 31:  real: 66,372,  official: 66,372,  infectious: 0,  died: 0,  dead: 3,186

As of Dec 31 evening:
VENTILATORS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
HOSPITAL BEDS NEVER RUN OUT in this scenario!
         19:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Jul  1.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,186:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
      3,186:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

    
Math Report:
Official Growth: 102.27%  =  Apparent Beta: 0.0227
Official uninf: 199,942,230 / Adult Pop.: 200,000,000   =   Choke Rate: 99.97%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0003
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 102.27%  =  Adjusted Beta: 0.0227