Space Coast Research Institute of Economic Reasoning
Applying Artificial Intelligence to the problem of Economic Understanding & Explanation
Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.
--pending--Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.
If you find this information useful, please reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.
How to read the Log Chart: Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds + deaths. Right, dotted lines: projections. Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on. Kinks say the underlying situation has changed, so the future will be different. Social isolation kicked in seriously in the USA around Mar 20. A kink towards the top of the graph will be where "terminal velocity" kicks in, and the virus has spread so much at 25%-50% of the population that it's finding it harder to reach more people to eat. Forced deaths start about a week after when the red Critically Ill line crosses light blue Ventilator Supply line for your region, meaning your entire region has run out of ventilators. Forced deaths accelerate about a week after when the yellow Severely Ill line crosses white Hospital Capacity line for your region, and you run out of staffed hospital bed space. Why a week? Hospitals/vents won't KNOW that they're overwhelmed until about 7-10 days later, when severely/critically ill patients all of a sudden realize they need to check in, or die soon. As of Apr 8 '20 the simulator is still underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, and so there is a kink in the black Death rate simulation line at Today. Although the natural 'in-hospital' deaths are probably underestimated, in most scenarios the vast majority of deaths come from avoidable 'out-of-hospital' deaths due to turning people away. Since this factor is in fact accurate, total number of deaths after June is still the correct order of magnitude, given assumptions. We are working to improve this simulation factor soon. Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical. Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes. Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus. This may be off. As of Mon Apr 6 there is an unexplained substantial second-order drop in the U.S. growth rate, which may be due either to successful social isolation finally kicking in, or under-counting. We are working on coming up with a model for this. Since the log Growth curve has recently changed and is no longer a completely straight line, in the U.S., we no longer feel completely confident in the results of this current forecast. Social isolation should change the total number of people that could get infected. Go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.
Sat, Apr 11, 2020:
The curve is now 10x in 31 days.
H-day, when ALL of the hospitals in America run out of space,
is forecast to be Sun, Sep 6th.
And V-day, when ALL of the ventilators in America are used up,
is forecast to be Sun, Jun 28th.
May the officials use this time wisely.
As of Oct 1 evening:
RUN OUT OF 200,000 H VENTILATORS: Sun, Jun 28th
RUN OUT OF 1,000,000 HOSPITAL BEDS: Sun, Sep 6th
57,483: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Sep 29.
226,862: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
2,237,994: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS
631,989: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment:
---------------
3,107,740: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Note: Uses latest data and model from Sat, Apr 11th, up-to-date but still needing tweaks.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by, say, 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
You need to build extra hospital beds as fast as you can.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.
America COVID-19 Forecast, Best Guess Scenario, Sat, Apr 11, 2020:
(using Beta = 0.076, at 107.61% Growth per day)
Starting Run:
Mar 1: real: 221, official: 75, infectious: 221, died: 1, dead: 1
Mar 2: real: 319, official: 100, infectious: 319, died: 5, dead: 6
Mar 3: real: 435, official: 124, infectious: 435, died: 3, dead: 9
Mar 4: real: 541, official: 158, infectious: 541, died: 2, dead: 11
Mar 5: real: 704, official: 221, infectious: 704, died: 1, dead: 12
Mar 6: real: 994, official: 319, infectious: 994, died: 3, dead: 15
Mar 7: real: 1,301, official: 435, infectious: 1,301, died: 4, dead: 19
Mar 8: real: 1,630, official: 541, infectious: 1,630, died: 3, dead: 22
Mar 9: real: 2,183, official: 704, infectious: 2,183, died: 4, dead: 26
Mar 10: real: 2,770, official: 994, infectious: 2,770, died: 4, dead: 30
Mar 11: real: 3,613, official: 1,301, infectious: 3,613, died: 8, dead: 38
Mar 12: real: 4,596, official: 1,630, infectious: 4,596, died: 3, dead: 41
Mar 13: real: 6,346, official: 2,183, infectious: 6,346, died: 7, dead: 48
Mar 14: real: 9,296, official: 2,770, infectious: 9,296, died: 9, dead: 57
Mar 15: real: 13,865, official: 3,613, infectious: 13,865, died: 12, dead: 69
Mar 16: real: 19,497, official: 4,596, infectious: 19,497, died: 18, dead: 87
Mar 17: real: 24,345, official: 6,346, infectious: 24,345, died: 23, dead: 110
Mar 18: real: 33,745, official: 9,296, infectious: 33,745, died: 40, dead: 150
Mar 19: real: 44,056, official: 13,865, infectious: 44,056, died: 56, dead: 206
Mar 20: real: 55,222, official: 19,497, infectious: 55,222, died: 49, dead: 255
Mar 21: real: 68,673, official: 24,345, infectious: 68,673, died: 46, dead: 301
Mar 22: real: 86,061, official: 33,745, infectious: 86,061, died: 113, dead: 414
Mar 23: real: 104,804, official: 44,056, infectious: 104,804, died: 142, dead: 556
Mar 24: real: 124,256, official: 55,222, infectious: 124,256, died: 225, dead: 781
Mar 25: real: 144,321, official: 68,673, infectious: 144,321, died: 247, dead: 1,028
Mar 26: real: 165,053, official: 86,061, infectious: 165,053, died: 268, dead: 1,296
Mar 27: real: 189,967, official: 104,804, infectious: 189,967, died: 401, dead: 1,697
Mar 28: real: 216,622, official: 124,256, infectious: 216,622, died: 525, dead: 2,222
Mar 29: real: 246,729, official: 144,321, infectious: 246,729, died: 370, dead: 2,592
Mar 30: real: 279,183, official: 165,053, infectious: 279,183, died: 558, dead: 3,150
Mar 31: real: 313,379, official: 189,967, infectious: 313,379, died: 914, dead: 4,064
Apr 1: real: 338,779, official: 216,622, infectious: 338,779, died: 1,050, dead: 5,114
Apr 2: real: 370,019, official: 246,729, infectious: 370,019, died: 974, dead: 6,088
Apr 3: real: 403,521, official: 279,183, infectious: 403,521, died: 1,051, dead: 7,139
Apr 4: real: 435,518, official: 313,379, infectious: 435,518, died: 1,330, dead: 8,469
Apr 5: real: 469,124, official: 338,779, infectious: 469,124, died: 1,167, dead: 9,636
Apr 6: real: 502,876, official: 370,019, infectious: 502,876, died: 1,259, dead: 10,895
...simulation engine starts here...
Apr 7: real: 535,238, official: 403,521, infectious: 425,081, died: 16,929, dead: 27,824
Apr 8: real: 569,190, official: 435,518, infectious: 446,035, died: 3,799, dead: 31,623
Apr 9: real: 604,355, official: 469,124, infectious: 462,030, died: 3,888, dead: 35,511
Apr 10: real: 640,758, official: 502,876, infectious: 478,357, died: 4,105, dead: 39,616
Apr 11: real: 678,479, official: 535,238, infectious: 495,756, died: 3,558, dead: 43,174
Apr 12: real: 717,515, official: 569,190, infectious: 513,106, died: 4,160, dead: 47,334
Apr 13: real: 757,936, official: 604,355, infectious: 531,407, died: 470, dead: 47,804
Apr 14: real: 799,738, official: 640,758, infectious: 549,640, died: 473, dead: 48,277
Apr 15: real: 842,995, official: 678,479, infectious: 568,876, died: 421, dead: 48,698
Apr 16: real: 887,756, official: 717,515, infectious: 588,757, died: 454, dead: 49,152
Apr 17: real: 934,029, official: 757,936, infectious: 608,748, died: 479, dead: 49,631
Apr 18: real: 981,682, official: 799,738, infectious: 627,025, died: 355, dead: 49,986
Apr 19: real: 1,030,701, official: 842,995, infectious: 645,121, died: 437, dead: 50,423
Apr 20: real: 1,080,962, official: 887,756, infectious: 661,591, died: 469, dead: 50,892
Apr 21: real: 1,132,406, official: 934,029, infectious: 677,298, died: 448, dead: 51,340
Apr 22: real: 1,185,000, official: 981,682, infectious: 692,590, died: 470, dead: 51,810
Apr 23: real: 1,239,348, official: 1,030,701, infectious: 715,835, died: 473, dead: 52,283
Apr 24: real: 1,295,160, official: 1,080,962, infectious: 735,282, died: 907, dead: 53,190
Apr 25: real: 1,352,410, official: 1,132,406, infectious: 754,393, died: 952, dead: 54,142
Apr 26: real: 1,411,277, official: 1,185,000, infectious: 775,878, died: 986, dead: 55,128
Apr 27: real: 1,471,748, official: 1,239,348, infectious: 797,213, died: 1,020, dead: 56,148
Apr 28: real: 1,533,914, official: 1,295,160, infectious: 819,753, died: 1,057, dead: 57,205
Apr 29: real: 1,597,958, official: 1,352,410, infectious: 844,734, died: 1,094, dead: 58,299
Apr 30: real: 1,663,891, official: 1,411,277, infectious: 869,871, died: 1,133, dead: 59,432
May 1: real: 1,731,762, official: 1,471,748, infectious: 895,671, died: 1,172, dead: 60,604
May 2: real: 1,801,619, official: 1,533,914, infectious: 922,134, died: 1,213, dead: 61,817
May 3: real: 1,873,507, official: 1,597,958, infectious: 949,220, died: 1,255, dead: 63,072
May 4: real: 1,947,471, official: 1,663,891, infectious: 976,904, died: 1,297, dead: 64,369
May 5: real: 2,023,556, official: 1,731,762, infectious: 1,005,220, died: 1,336, dead: 65,705
May 6: real: 2,101,811, official: 1,801,619, infectious: 1,034,209, died: 1,374, dead: 67,079
May 7: real: 2,182,282, official: 1,873,507, infectious: 1,063,833, died: 1,409, dead: 68,488
May 8: real: 2,265,016, official: 1,947,471, infectious: 1,094,098, died: 1,442, dead: 69,930
May 9: real: 2,350,059, official: 2,023,556, infectious: 1,125,021, died: 1,475, dead: 71,405
May 10: real: 2,437,469, official: 2,101,811, infectious: 1,156,728, died: 1,524, dead: 72,929
May 11: real: 2,527,307, official: 2,182,282, infectious: 1,189,269, died: 1,565, dead: 74,494
May 12: real: 2,619,644, official: 2,265,016, infectious: 1,222,795, died: 1,605, dead: 76,099
May 13: real: 2,714,559, official: 2,350,059, infectious: 1,257,403, died: 1,651, dead: 77,750
May 14: real: 2,812,137, official: 2,437,469, infectious: 1,293,181, died: 1,696, dead: 79,446
May 15: real: 2,912,432, official: 2,527,307, infectious: 1,329,716, died: 1,743, dead: 81,189
May 16: real: 3,015,521, official: 2,619,644, infectious: 1,367,316, died: 1,796, dead: 82,985
May 17: real: 3,121,486, official: 2,714,559, infectious: 1,406,047, died: 1,849, dead: 84,834
May 18: real: 3,230,403, official: 2,812,137, infectious: 1,445,833, died: 1,903, dead: 86,737
May 19: real: 3,342,353, official: 2,912,432, infectious: 1,486,757, died: 1,959, dead: 88,696
May 20: real: 3,457,418, official: 3,015,521, infectious: 1,528,812, died: 2,016, dead: 90,712
May 21: real: 3,575,672, official: 3,121,486, infectious: 1,571,921, died: 2,074, dead: 92,786
May 22: real: 3,697,195, official: 3,230,403, infectious: 1,616,145, died: 2,134, dead: 94,920
May 23: real: 3,822,067, official: 3,342,353, infectious: 1,661,503, died: 2,195, dead: 97,115
May 24: real: 3,950,370, official: 3,457,418, infectious: 1,708,021, died: 2,257, dead: 99,372
May 25: real: 4,082,187, official: 3,575,672, infectious: 1,755,728, died: 2,320, dead: 101,692
May 26: real: 4,217,606, official: 3,697,195, infectious: 1,804,659, died: 2,385, dead: 104,077
May 27: real: 4,356,714, official: 3,822,067, infectious: 1,854,843, died: 2,451, dead: 106,528
May 28: real: 4,499,601, official: 3,950,370, infectious: 1,906,315, died: 2,519, dead: 109,047
May 29: real: 4,646,360, official: 4,082,187, infectious: 1,959,109, died: 2,589, dead: 111,636
May 30: real: 4,797,085, official: 4,217,606, infectious: 2,013,260, died: 2,662, dead: 114,298
May 31: real: 4,951,874, official: 4,356,714, infectious: 2,068,810, died: 2,736, dead: 117,034
Jun 1: real: 5,110,826, official: 4,499,601, infectious: 2,125,790, died: 2,813, dead: 119,847
Jun 2: real: 5,274,042, official: 4,646,360, infectious: 2,184,233, died: 2,891, dead: 122,738
Jun 3: real: 5,441,624, official: 4,797,085, infectious: 2,244,167, died: 2,972, dead: 125,710
Jun 4: real: 5,613,677, official: 4,951,874, infectious: 2,305,611, died: 3,054, dead: 128,764
Jun 5: real: 5,790,305, official: 5,110,826, infectious: 2,368,584, died: 3,139, dead: 131,903
Jun 6: real: 5,971,615, official: 5,274,042, infectious: 2,433,129, died: 3,227, dead: 135,130
Jun 7: real: 6,157,715, official: 5,441,624, infectious: 2,499,271, died: 3,316, dead: 138,446
Jun 8: real: 6,348,715, official: 5,613,677, infectious: 2,567,034, died: 3,408, dead: 141,854
Jun 9: real: 6,544,726, official: 5,790,305, infectious: 2,636,446, died: 3,502, dead: 145,356
Jun 10: real: 6,745,860, official: 5,971,615, infectious: 2,707,533, died: 3,598, dead: 148,954
Jun 11: real: 6,952,231, official: 6,157,715, infectious: 2,780,322, died: 3,697, dead: 152,651
Jun 12: real: 7,163,953, official: 6,348,715, infectious: 2,854,844, died: 3,798, dead: 156,449
Jun 13: real: 7,381,144, official: 6,544,726, infectious: 2,931,130, died: 3,901, dead: 160,350
Jun 14: real: 7,603,921, official: 6,745,860, infectious: 3,009,210, died: 4,007, dead: 164,357
Jun 15: real: 7,832,403, official: 6,952,231, infectious: 3,089,115, died: 4,116, dead: 168,473
Jun 16: real: 8,066,711, official: 7,163,953, infectious: 3,170,874, died: 4,227, dead: 172,700
Jun 17: real: 8,306,967, official: 7,381,144, infectious: 3,254,514, died: 4,341, dead: 177,041
Jun 18: real: 8,553,294, official: 7,603,921, infectious: 3,340,066, died: 4,458, dead: 181,499
Jun 19: real: 8,805,816, official: 7,832,403, infectious: 3,427,557, died: 4,578, dead: 186,077
Jun 20: real: 9,064,657, official: 8,066,711, infectious: 3,517,014, died: 4,700, dead: 190,777
Jun 21: real: 9,329,944, official: 8,306,967, infectious: 3,608,463, died: 4,825, dead: 195,602
Jun 22: real: 9,601,802, official: 8,553,294, infectious: 3,701,926, died: 4,954, dead: 200,556
Jun 23: real: 9,880,359, official: 8,805,816, infectious: 3,797,428, died: 5,085, dead: 205,641
Jun 24: real: 10,165,741, official: 9,064,657, infectious: 3,894,991, died: 5,220, dead: 210,861
Jun 25: real: 10,458,076, official: 9,329,944, infectious: 3,994,636, died: 5,357, dead: 216,218
Jun 26: real: 10,757,492, official: 9,601,802, infectious: 4,096,382, died: 5,497, dead: 221,715
Jun 27: real: 11,064,116, official: 9,880,359, infectious: 4,200,250, died: 5,641, dead: 227,356
RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Jun 28: real: 11,378,076, official: 10,165,741, infectious: 4,306,257, died: 5,788, dead: 233,144
Jun 29: real: 11,699,791, official: 10,458,076, infectious: 4,418,426, died: 5,938, dead: 239,082
Jun 30: real: 12,029,485, official: 10,757,492, infectious: 4,534,124, died: 6,091, dead: 245,173
Jul 1: real: 12,367,312, official: 11,064,116, infectious: 4,652,419, died: 6,248, dead: 251,421
Jul 2: real: 12,713,143, official: 11,378,076, infectious: 4,769,417, died: 10,414, dead: 261,835
Jul 3: real: 13,067,043, official: 11,699,791, infectious: 4,887,807, died: 11,934, dead: 273,769
Jul 4: real: 13,429,147, official: 12,029,485, infectious: 5,008,578, died: 12,225, dead: 285,994
Jul 5: real: 13,799,583, official: 12,367,312, infectious: 5,131,676, died: 12,519, dead: 298,513
Jul 6: real: 14,178,480, official: 12,713,143, infectious: 5,257,115, died: 10,615, dead: 309,128
Jul 7: real: 14,566,123, official: 13,067,043, infectious: 5,387,108, died: 10,173, dead: 319,301
Jul 8: real: 14,962,690, official: 13,429,147, infectious: 5,520,203, died: 10,415, dead: 329,716
Jul 9: real: 15,368,320, official: 13,799,583, infectious: 5,655,885, died: 10,660, dead: 340,376
Jul 10: real: 15,782,992, official: 14,178,480, infectious: 5,791,959, died: 13,114, dead: 353,490
Jul 11: real: 16,206,789, official: 14,566,123, infectious: 5,929,883, died: 14,115, dead: 367,605
Jul 12: real: 16,639,827, official: 14,962,690, infectious: 6,070,172, died: 14,456, dead: 382,061
Jul 13: real: 17,082,220, official: 15,368,320, infectious: 6,212,817, died: 14,806, dead: 396,867
Jul 14: real: 17,534,079, official: 15,782,992, infectious: 6,357,815, died: 13,950, dead: 410,817
Jul 15: real: 17,995,600, official: 16,206,789, infectious: 6,506,377, died: 13,887, dead: 424,704
Jul 16: real: 18,466,916, official: 16,639,827, infectious: 6,657,689, died: 14,200, dead: 438,904
Jul 17: real: 18,948,138, official: 17,082,220, infectious: 6,811,444, died: 14,518, dead: 453,422
Jul 18: real: 19,439,285, official: 17,534,079, infectious: 6,966,412, died: 16,052, dead: 469,474
Jul 19: real: 19,940,430, official: 17,995,600, infectious: 7,123,370, died: 16,788, dead: 486,262
Jul 20: real: 20,451,662, official: 18,466,916, infectious: 7,282,575, died: 17,163, dead: 503,425
Jul 21: real: 20,973,048, official: 18,948,138, infectious: 7,443,759, died: 17,546, dead: 520,971
Jul 22: real: 21,504,644, official: 19,439,285, infectious: 7,606,811, died: 17,267, dead: 538,238
Jul 23: real: 22,046,547, official: 19,940,430, infectious: 7,772,325, died: 17,425, dead: 555,663
Jul 24: real: 22,598,827, official: 20,451,662, infectious: 7,939,997, died: 17,793, dead: 573,456
Jul 25: real: 23,161,541, official: 20,973,048, infectious: 8,109,646, died: 18,162, dead: 591,618
Jul 26: real: 23,734,690, official: 21,504,644, infectious: 8,280,531, died: 19,203, dead: 610,821
Jul 27: real: 24,318,300, official: 22,046,547, infectious: 8,453,020, died: 19,806, dead: 630,627
Jul 28: real: 24,912,399, official: 22,598,827, infectious: 8,627,192, died: 20,210, dead: 650,837
Jul 29: real: 25,516,998, official: 23,161,541, infectious: 8,802,836, died: 20,621, dead: 671,458
Jul 30: real: 26,132,096, official: 23,734,690, infectious: 8,979,820, died: 20,666, dead: 692,124
Jul 31: real: 26,757,707, official: 24,318,300, infectious: 9,158,396, died: 20,953, dead: 713,077
Aug 1: real: 27,393,826, official: 24,912,399, infectious: 9,338,323, died: 21,356, dead: 734,433
Aug 2: real: 28,040,434, official: 25,516,998, infectious: 9,519,424, died: 21,759, dead: 756,192
Aug 3: real: 28,697,476, official: 26,132,096, infectious: 9,701,215, died: 22,531, dead: 778,723
Aug 4: real: 29,364,903, official: 26,757,707, infectious: 9,883,815, died: 23,061, dead: 801,784
Aug 5: real: 30,042,662, official: 27,393,826, infectious: 10,067,177, died: 23,480, dead: 825,264
Aug 6: real: 30,730,683, official: 28,040,434, infectious: 10,251,096, died: 23,900, dead: 849,164
Aug 7: real: 31,428,883, official: 28,697,476, infectious: 10,435,406, died: 24,118, dead: 873,282
Aug 8: real: 32,137,181, official: 29,364,903, infectious: 10,620,143, died: 24,467, dead: 897,749
Aug 9: real: 32,855,477, official: 30,042,662, infectious: 10,805,070, died: 24,879, dead: 922,628
Aug 10: real: 33,583,657, official: 30,730,683, infectious: 10,989,988, died: 25,288, dead: 947,916
Aug 11: real: 34,321,700, official: 31,428,883, infectious: 11,176,322, died: 25,896, dead: 973,812
Aug 12: real: 35,069,502, official: 32,137,181, infectious: 11,362,848, died: 26,369, dead: 1,000,181
Aug 13: real: 35,826,920, official: 32,855,477, infectious: 11,549,006, died: 26,778, dead: 1,026,959
Aug 14: real: 36,593,682, official: 33,583,657, infectious: 11,732,824, died: 28,987, dead: 1,055,946
Aug 15: real: 37,369,581, official: 34,321,700, infectious: 11,915,301, died: 29,889, dead: 1,085,835
Aug 16: real: 38,154,435, official: 35,069,502, infectious: 12,096,799, died: 30,302, dead: 1,116,137
Aug 17: real: 38,948,043, official: 35,826,920, infectious: 12,277,049, died: 30,746, dead: 1,146,883
Aug 18: real: 39,750,192, official: 36,593,682, infectious: 12,455,829, died: 30,193, dead: 1,177,076
Aug 19: real: 40,560,774, official: 37,369,581, infectious: 12,634,802, died: 30,402, dead: 1,207,478
Aug 20: real: 41,379,589, official: 38,154,435, infectious: 12,812,528, died: 30,836, dead: 1,238,314
Aug 21: real: 42,206,395, official: 38,948,043, infectious: 12,988,346, died: 31,228, dead: 1,269,542
Aug 22: real: 43,040,812, official: 39,750,192, infectious: 13,160,069, died: 33,597, dead: 1,303,139
Aug 23: real: 43,882,533, official: 40,560,774, infectious: 13,328,791, died: 34,584, dead: 1,337,723
Aug 24: real: 44,731,275, official: 41,379,589, infectious: 13,494,843, died: 34,998, dead: 1,372,721
Aug 25: real: 45,586,739, official: 42,206,395, infectious: 13,657,969, died: 35,423, dead: 1,408,144
Aug 26: real: 46,448,616, official: 43,040,812, infectious: 13,817,942, died: 34,748, dead: 1,442,892
Aug 27: real: 47,316,684, official: 43,882,533, infectious: 13,976,122, died: 34,839, dead: 1,477,731
Aug 28: real: 48,190,644, official: 44,731,275, infectious: 14,131,256, died: 35,214, dead: 1,512,945
Aug 29: real: 49,070,164, official: 45,586,739, infectious: 14,282,742, died: 35,558, dead: 1,548,503
Aug 30: real: 49,954,802, official: 46,448,616, infectious: 14,428,738, died: 37,526, dead: 1,586,029
Aug 31: real: 50,844,175, official: 47,316,684, infectious: 14,570,115, died: 38,364, dead: 1,624,393
Sep 1: real: 51,737,919, official: 48,190,644, infectious: 14,707,100, died: 38,713, dead: 1,663,106
Sep 2: real: 52,635,654, official: 49,070,164, infectious: 14,839,374, died: 39,061, dead: 1,702,167
Sep 3: real: 53,536,992, official: 49,954,802, infectious: 14,966,701, died: 38,494, dead: 1,740,661
Sep 4: real: 54,441,608, official: 50,844,175, infectious: 15,090,045, died: 38,534, dead: 1,779,195
Sep 5: real: 55,349,128, official: 51,737,919, infectious: 15,208,523, died: 38,813, dead: 1,818,008
RAN OUT OF HOSPITAL BEDS
Sep 6: real: 56,259,158, official: 52,635,654, infectious: 15,321,677, died: 39,062, dead: 1,857,070
Sep 7: real: 57,171,618, official: 53,536,992, infectious: 15,434,758, died: 40,495, dead: 1,897,565
Sep 8: real: 58,086,170, official: 54,441,608, infectious: 15,543,344, died: 41,099, dead: 1,938,664
Sep 9: real: 59,002,397, official: 55,349,128, infectious: 15,646,025, died: 41,329, dead: 1,979,993
Sep 10: real: 59,919,879, official: 56,259,158, infectious: 15,742,608, died: 41,550, dead: 2,021,543
Sep 11: real: 60,838,190, official: 57,171,618, infectious: 15,832,894, died: 41,091, dead: 2,062,634
Sep 12: real: 61,756,567, official: 58,086,170, infectious: 15,910,900, died: 47,690, dead: 2,110,324
Sep 13: real: 62,674,516, official: 59,002,397, infectious: 15,981,071, died: 49,421, dead: 2,159,745
Sep 14: real: 63,591,624, official: 59,919,879, infectious: 16,044,661, died: 49,170, dead: 2,208,915
Sep 15: real: 64,507,802, official: 60,838,190, infectious: 16,107,264, died: 49,717, dead: 2,258,632
Sep 16: real: 65,422,705, official: 61,756,567, infectious: 16,164,288, died: 49,674, dead: 2,308,306
Sep 17: real: 66,335,911, official: 62,674,516, infectious: 16,214,282, died: 49,352, dead: 2,357,658
Sep 18: real: 67,247,002, official: 63,591,624, infectious: 16,257,162, died: 49,000, dead: 2,406,658
Sep 19: real: 68,155,562, official: 64,507,802, infectious: 16,292,820, died: 48,160, dead: 2,454,818
Sep 20: real: 69,060,840, official: 65,422,705, infectious: 16,315,070, died: 54,235, dead: 2,509,053
Sep 21: real: 69,962,358, official: 66,335,911, infectious: 16,328,607, died: 55,375, dead: 2,564,428
Sep 22: real: 70,859,728, official: 67,247,002, infectious: 16,334,852, died: 54,527, dead: 2,618,955
Sep 23: real: 71,752,935, official: 68,155,562, infectious: 16,340,521, died: 54,244, dead: 2,673,199
Sep 24: real: 72,641,681, official: 69,060,840, infectious: 16,340,385, died: 53,568, dead: 2,726,767
Sep 25: real: 73,525,586, official: 69,962,358, infectious: 16,332,818, died: 52,667, dead: 2,779,434
Sep 26: real: 74,404,238, official: 70,859,728, infectious: 16,317,070, died: 52,531, dead: 2,831,965
Sep 27: real: 75,277,262, official: 71,752,935, infectious: 16,293,679, died: 51,520, dead: 2,883,485
Sep 28: real: 76,143,971, official: 72,641,681, infectious: 16,256,641, died: 57,001, dead: 2,940,486
Sep 29: real: 77,003,935, official: 73,525,586, infectious: 16,210,547, died: 57,483, dead: 2,997,969
Sep 30: real: 77,856,814, official: 74,404,238, infectious: 16,156,909, died: 55,530, dead: 3,053,499
Oct 1: real: 78,702,670, official: 75,277,262, infectious: 16,103,256, died: 54,241, dead: 3,107,740
As of Oct 1 evening:
RUN OUT OF 200,000 H VENTILATORS: Sun, Jun 28th
RUN OUT OF 1,000,000 HOSPITAL BEDS: Sun, Sep 6th
57,483: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Sep 29.
226,862: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
2,237,994: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS
631,989: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment:
---------------
3,107,740: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Math Report:
Official Growth: 107.61% = Apparent Beta: 0.0761
Official uninf: 249,497,124 / Adult Pop.: 250,000,000 = Choke Rate: 99.80%
Terminal Velocity Adjustment Factor: 1.0020
Unchoked (natural) Growth: 107.63% = Adjusted Beta: 0.0763