Probably: 500,000 Known NYC inf : Not reached, if isolation continues successfully! Probably: 1M Known NYC inf: Not reached! Possibly: 2.5M Known NYC inf: Not reached! Perhaps: 4M Known NYC inf: Not reached!
Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.
--pending--Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.
If you find this information useful, please kindly reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.
How to read the Log Chart: Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds (brown) + deaths (black). Yellow Severes total and Red Criticals total are estimated from infecteds, but may not have gotten sick and reported in to the hospital yet. Right, dotted lines: projections. Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on. Bends say the situation is changing. First kink around Mar 20th is where social isolation kicked in, in NYC. Large kinks in black Death rate on left side are due to missing early data. Kink in black Death rate simulation right before Today seems due to error in underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, TBD. Black line crossing red line indicates some hospitals may already be full. Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical. Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes. Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus, as data results show; go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.
Tues, Apr 14, 2020, 8:00pm EST:
NYC social isolation is working reasonably well. Although as of Mar 18th NYC was staring into the abyss, with a 218% Growth rate that's 1,000x in 8.9 days, (hopefully due to substantially increased testing that week?), the call for self-isolation on Mar 20th was noticed--and with everyone getting serious, Growth has almost flattened to 104.4%. Congratulations, New York City!
Since this is under the hospital replacement rate of around 105%, it means that the number of people in the hospitals are gradually going to shrink over the next number of weeks, instead of expanding by 10x and then 100x.Our model says NYC should have already run out of 1,800 ventilators by close of business today, Apr 4 2020. Either our parameters are not accurate, or there's some information missing.
At this point, instead of being completely swamped, NYC is not going to run out of hospital beds.
RUN OUT OF 1,800 NYC VENTILATORS Apr 4 ??? DON'T RUN OUT OF 27,300 NYC HOSPITAL BEDS with current levels of isolation As of Nov 1 evening: 220: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Apr 15. 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 3,246: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 7,186: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 10,432: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS
Various simulations come up with various results. Current peak daily deaths forecast for NYC are only 220 a day now, thankfully not the 11K/day being previously forecast. This is due to successful social isolation. At present we are still missing accurate early data for total NYC deaths at the beginning of March. Ventilators have recently been shown to most likely be a red herring. Patients appear to be dying from lack of working hemoglobin, which explains why, even with ventilator use in the hospital, survival rates of patients given ventilators were only 50%. Ventilators are currently believed to cause more damage than they prevent. This massive change will affect the death rates substantially, and is not yet reflected in the forecasts. The current Scenario is the best guess at a fairly realistic current scenario, The simulation is still missing a reduction in effective N from those who HARD self-isolate; you can probably multiply the final results in May by 50% or 25% in order to get finished numbers. April will still be the same.
Note: Uses latest data and model from Apr 13th.
Assumes self-isolation SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by about 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.
Starting Run: NYC BestGuess Scenario: After 1 month Self-Isolation using Beta = 0.043, that's 104.4% Growth per day (before adjustments) Mar 1: real: 4, official: 1, infectious: 4, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 2: real: 7, official: 1, infectious: 7, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 3: real: 12, official: 2, infectious: 12, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 4: real: 14, official: 2, infectious: 14, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 5: real: 25, official: 4, infectious: 25, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 6: real: 32, official: 7, infectious: 32, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 7: real: 53, official: 12, infectious: 53, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 8: real: 88, official: 14, infectious: 88, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 9: real: 137, official: 25, infectious: 137, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 10: real: 185, official: 32, infectious: 185, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 11: real: 269, official: 53, infectious: 269, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 12: real: 464, official: 88, infectious: 464, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 13: real: 923, official: 137, infectious: 923, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 14: real: 2,009, official: 185, infectious: 2,009, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 15: real: 3,954, official: 269, infectious: 3,954, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 16: real: 5,683, official: 464, infectious: 5,683, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 17: real: 8,115, official: 923, infectious: 8,115, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 18: real: 10,764, official: 2,009, infectious: 10,764, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 19: real: 13,119, official: 3,954, infectious: 13,119, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 20: real: 15,597, official: 5,683, infectious: 15,597, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 21: real: 20,011, official: 8,115, infectious: 20,011, died: 0, dead: 0 Mar 22: real: 23,112, official: 10,764, infectious: 23,112, died: 209, dead: 209 Mar 23: real: 26,697, official: 13,119, infectious: 26,697, died: 31, dead: 240 Mar 24: real: 30,765, official: 15,597, infectious: 30,765, died: 36, dead: 276 Mar 25: real: 33,474, official: 20,011, infectious: 33,474, died: 41, dead: 317 Mar 26: real: 38,087, official: 23,112, infectious: 38,087, died: 48, dead: 365 Mar 27: real: 43,139, official: 26,697, infectious: 43,139, died: 152, dead: 517 Mar 28: real: 45,707, official: 30,765, infectious: 45,707, died: 161, dead: 678 Mar 29: real: 49,707, official: 33,474, infectious: 49,707, died: 98, dead: 776 Mar 30: real: 56,289, official: 38,087, infectious: 56,289, died: -98, dead: 678 Mar 31: real: 60,850, official: 43,139, infectious: 60,850, died: 254, dead: 932 Apr 1: real: 64,955, official: 45,707, infectious: 64,955, died: 442, dead: 1,374 Apr 2: real: 68,776, official: 49,707, infectious: 68,776, died: 188, dead: 1,562 Apr 3: real: 74,601, official: 56,289, infectious: 74,601, died: 305, dead: 1,867 Apr 4: real: 80,204, official: 60,850, infectious: 80,204, died: 387, dead: 2,254 Apr 5: real: 87,725, official: 64,955, infectious: 87,725, died: 218, dead: 2,472 Apr 6: real: 94,409, official: 68,776, infectious: 94,409, died: 266, dead: 2,738 Apr 7: real: 98,715, official: 74,601, infectious: 98,715, died: 806, dead: 3,544 Apr 8: real: 104,410, official: 80,204, infectious: 104,410, died: 716, dead: 4,260 Apr 9: real: 107,263, official: 87,725, infectious: 107,263, died: 518, dead: 4,778 ...simulation engine starts here... Apr 10: real: 110,513, official: 94,409, infectious: 75,975, died: 47, dead: 4,825 RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS Apr 11: real: 113,796, official: 98,715, infectious: 76,772, died: 72, dead: 4,897 Apr 12: real: 117,022, official: 104,410, infectious: 75,488, died: 70, dead: 4,967 Apr 13: real: 120,253, official: 107,263, infectious: 75,644, died: 94, dead: 5,061 Apr 14: real: 123,461, official: 110,513, infectious: 75,146, died: 83, dead: 5,144 Apr 15: real: 126,641, official: 113,796, infectious: 74,527, died: 220, dead: 5,364 Apr 16: real: 129,839, official: 117,022, infectious: 74,972, died: 178, dead: 5,542 Apr 17: real: 132,986, official: 120,253, infectious: 73,826, died: 177, dead: 5,719 Apr 18: real: 136,072, official: 123,461, infectious: 72,427, died: 71, dead: 5,790 Apr 19: real: 139,176, official: 126,641, infectious: 72,873, died: 162, dead: 5,952 Apr 20: real: 142,246, official: 129,839, infectious: 72,114, died: 164, dead: 6,116 Apr 21: real: 145,195, official: 132,986, infectious: 69,313, died: 161, dead: 6,277 Apr 22: real: 148,091, official: 136,072, infectious: 68,094, died: 161, dead: 6,438 Apr 23: real: 150,944, official: 139,176, infectious: 67,125, died: 160, dead: 6,598 Apr 24: real: 153,763, official: 142,246, infectious: 66,342, died: 159, dead: 6,757 Apr 25: real: 156,477, official: 145,195, infectious: 63,909, died: 159, dead: 6,916 Apr 26: real: 159,093, official: 148,091, infectious: 61,628, died: 157, dead: 7,073 Apr 27: real: 161,543, official: 150,944, infectious: 57,729, died: 154, dead: 7,227 Apr 28: real: 163,851, official: 153,763, infectious: 54,408, died: 155, dead: 7,382 Apr 29: real: 166,091, official: 156,477, infectious: 52,831, died: 153, dead: 7,535 Apr 30: real: 168,211, official: 159,093, infectious: 50,013, died: 147, dead: 7,682 May 1: real: 170,305, official: 161,543, infectious: 49,418, died: 144, dead: 7,826 May 2: real: 172,355, official: 163,851, infectious: 48,403, died: 142, dead: 7,968 May 3: real: 174,359, official: 166,091, infectious: 47,322, died: 140, dead: 8,108 May 4: real: 176,315, official: 168,211, infectious: 46,199, died: 135, dead: 8,243 May 5: real: 178,223, official: 170,305, infectious: 45,074, died: 130, dead: 8,373 May 6: real: 180,083, official: 172,355, infectious: 43,975, died: 81, dead: 8,454 May 7: real: 181,898, official: 174,359, infectious: 42,919, died: 5, dead: 8,459 VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE May 8: real: 183,666, official: 176,315, infectious: 41,810, died: 35, dead: 8,494 May 9: real: 185,386, official: 178,223, infectious: 40,690, died: 17, dead: 8,511 May 10: real: 187,059, official: 180,083, infectious: 39,595, died: 23, dead: 8,534 May 11: real: 188,682, official: 181,898, infectious: 38,415, died: 90, dead: 8,624 May 12: real: 190,256, official: 183,666, infectious: 37,259, died: 38, dead: 8,662 May 13: real: 191,783, official: 185,386, infectious: 36,160, died: 44, dead: 8,706 May 14: real: 193,263, official: 187,059, infectious: 35,063, died: 50, dead: 8,756 May 15: real: 194,696, official: 188,682, infectious: 33,962, died: 33, dead: 8,789 May 16: real: 196,082, official: 190,256, infectious: 32,852, died: 50, dead: 8,839 May 17: real: 197,423, official: 191,783, infectious: 31,789, died: 48, dead: 8,887 May 18: real: 198,721, official: 193,263, infectious: 30,767, died: 47, dead: 8,934 May 19: real: 199,979, official: 194,696, infectious: 29,842, died: 46, dead: 8,980 May 20: real: 201,202, official: 196,082, infectious: 28,997, died: 45, dead: 9,025 May 21: real: 202,390, official: 197,423, infectious: 28,178, died: 44, dead: 9,069 May 22: real: 203,546, official: 198,721, infectious: 27,429, died: 43, dead: 9,112 May 23: real: 204,670, official: 199,979, infectious: 26,673, died: 41, dead: 9,153 May 24: real: 205,762, official: 201,202, infectious: 25,930, died: 40, dead: 9,193 May 25: real: 206,823, official: 202,390, infectious: 25,200, died: 39, dead: 9,232 May 26: real: 207,854, official: 203,546, infectious: 24,482, died: 38, dead: 9,270 May 27: real: 208,855, official: 204,670, infectious: 23,779, died: 37, dead: 9,307 May 28: real: 209,827, official: 205,762, infectious: 23,092, died: 35, dead: 9,342 May 29: real: 210,771, official: 206,823, infectious: 22,416, died: 34, dead: 9,376 May 30: real: 211,687, official: 207,854, infectious: 21,756, died: 33, dead: 9,409 May 31: real: 212,575, official: 208,855, infectious: 21,112, died: 32, dead: 9,441 Jun 1: real: 213,437, official: 209,827, infectious: 20,483, died: 31, dead: 9,472 Jun 2: real: 214,273, official: 210,771, infectious: 19,872, died: 30, dead: 9,502 Jun 3: real: 215,084, official: 211,687, infectious: 19,281, died: 29, dead: 9,531 Jun 4: real: 215,871, official: 212,575, infectious: 18,707, died: 28, dead: 9,559 Jun 5: real: 216,634, official: 213,437, infectious: 18,152, died: 28, dead: 9,587 Jun 6: real: 217,375, official: 214,273, infectious: 17,614, died: 27, dead: 9,614 Jun 7: real: 218,094, official: 215,084, infectious: 17,095, died: 26, dead: 9,640 Jun 8: real: 218,792, official: 215,871, infectious: 16,597, died: 25, dead: 9,665 Jun 9: real: 219,469, official: 216,634, infectious: 16,115, died: 25, dead: 9,690 Jun 10: real: 220,127, official: 217,375, infectious: 15,648, died: 24, dead: 9,714 Jun 11: real: 220,766, official: 218,094, infectious: 15,194, died: 23, dead: 9,737 Jun 12: real: 221,386, official: 218,792, infectious: 14,753, died: 22, dead: 9,759 Jun 13: real: 221,988, official: 219,469, infectious: 14,324, died: 22, dead: 9,781 Jun 14: real: 222,572, official: 220,127, infectious: 13,906, died: 21, dead: 9,802 Jun 15: real: 223,139, official: 220,766, infectious: 13,499, died: 20, dead: 9,822 Jun 16: real: 223,689, official: 221,386, infectious: 13,104, died: 20, dead: 9,842 Jun 17: real: 224,223, official: 221,988, infectious: 12,719, died: 19, dead: 9,861 Jun 18: real: 224,741, official: 222,572, infectious: 12,344, died: 19, dead: 9,880 Jun 19: real: 225,244, official: 223,139, infectious: 11,979, died: 18, dead: 9,898 Jun 20: real: 225,732, official: 223,689, infectious: 11,625, died: 17, dead: 9,915 Jun 21: real: 226,206, official: 224,223, infectious: 11,281, died: 17, dead: 9,932 Jun 22: real: 226,666, official: 224,741, infectious: 10,949, died: 16, dead: 9,948 Jun 23: real: 227,112, official: 225,244, infectious: 10,627, died: 16, dead: 9,964 Jun 24: real: 227,545, official: 225,732, infectious: 10,315, died: 15, dead: 9,979 Jun 25: real: 227,965, official: 226,206, infectious: 10,011, died: 15, dead: 9,994 Jun 26: real: 228,373, official: 226,666, infectious: 9,717, died: 15, dead: 10,009 Jun 27: real: 228,769, official: 227,112, infectious: 9,432, died: 14, dead: 10,023 Jun 28: real: 229,153, official: 227,545, infectious: 9,155, died: 14, dead: 10,037 Jun 29: real: 229,526, official: 227,965, infectious: 8,886, died: 13, dead: 10,050 Jun 30: real: 229,888, official: 228,373, infectious: 8,625, died: 13, dead: 10,063 Jul 1: real: 230,239, official: 228,769, infectious: 8,371, died: 12, dead: 10,075 Jul 2: real: 230,580, official: 229,153, infectious: 8,124, died: 12, dead: 10,087 Jul 3: real: 230,911, official: 229,526, infectious: 7,884, died: 12, dead: 10,099 Jul 4: real: 231,232, official: 229,888, infectious: 7,653, died: 11, dead: 10,110 Jul 5: real: 231,544, official: 230,239, infectious: 7,429, died: 11, dead: 10,121 Jul 6: real: 231,846, official: 230,580, infectious: 7,210, died: 11, dead: 10,132 Jul 7: real: 232,140, official: 230,911, infectious: 6,999, died: 10, dead: 10,142 Jul 8: real: 232,425, official: 231,232, infectious: 6,792, died: 10, dead: 10,152 Jul 9: real: 232,702, official: 231,544, infectious: 6,593, died: 10, dead: 10,162 Jul 10: real: 232,970, official: 231,846, infectious: 6,398, died: 9, dead: 10,171 Jul 11: real: 233,230, official: 232,140, infectious: 6,211, died: 9, dead: 10,180 Jul 12: real: 233,483, official: 232,425, infectious: 6,028, died: 9, dead: 10,189 Jul 13: real: 233,728, official: 232,702, infectious: 5,850, died: 9, dead: 10,198 Jul 14: real: 233,966, official: 232,970, infectious: 5,679, died: 8, dead: 10,206 Jul 15: real: 234,197, official: 233,230, infectious: 5,512, died: 8, dead: 10,214 Jul 16: real: 234,421, official: 233,483, infectious: 5,349, died: 8, dead: 10,222 Jul 17: real: 234,639, official: 233,728, infectious: 5,192, died: 8, dead: 10,230 Jul 18: real: 234,850, official: 233,966, infectious: 5,040, died: 7, dead: 10,237 Jul 19: real: 235,055, official: 234,197, infectious: 4,892, died: 7, dead: 10,244 Jul 20: real: 235,254, official: 234,421, infectious: 4,749, died: 7, dead: 10,251 Jul 21: real: 235,447, official: 234,639, infectious: 4,609, died: 7, dead: 10,258 Jul 22: real: 235,635, official: 234,850, infectious: 4,474, died: 6, dead: 10,264 Jul 23: real: 235,817, official: 235,055, infectious: 4,343, died: 6, dead: 10,270 Jul 24: real: 235,994, official: 235,254, infectious: 4,217, died: 6, dead: 10,276 Jul 25: real: 236,166, official: 235,447, infectious: 4,093, died: 6, dead: 10,282 Jul 26: real: 236,333, official: 235,635, infectious: 3,975, died: 6, dead: 10,288 Jul 27: real: 236,495, official: 235,817, infectious: 3,859, died: 5, dead: 10,293 Jul 28: real: 236,652, official: 235,994, infectious: 3,747, died: 5, dead: 10,298 Jul 29: real: 236,804, official: 236,166, infectious: 3,637, died: 5, dead: 10,303 Jul 30: real: 236,952, official: 236,333, infectious: 3,531, died: 5, dead: 10,308 Jul 31: real: 237,096, official: 236,495, infectious: 3,427, died: 5, dead: 10,313 Aug 1: real: 237,235, official: 236,652, infectious: 3,327, died: 5, dead: 10,318 Aug 2: real: 237,370, official: 236,804, infectious: 3,231, died: 4, dead: 10,322 Aug 3: real: 237,501, official: 236,952, infectious: 3,136, died: 4, dead: 10,326 Aug 4: real: 237,629, official: 237,096, infectious: 3,045, died: 4, dead: 10,330 Aug 5: real: 237,753, official: 237,235, infectious: 2,955, died: 4, dead: 10,334 Aug 6: real: 237,873, official: 237,370, infectious: 2,869, died: 4, dead: 10,338 Aug 7: real: 237,990, official: 237,501, infectious: 2,787, died: 4, dead: 10,342 Aug 8: real: 238,103, official: 237,629, infectious: 2,705, died: 4, dead: 10,346 Aug 9: real: 238,213, official: 237,753, infectious: 2,627, died: 4, dead: 10,350 Aug 10: real: 238,320, official: 237,873, infectious: 2,550, died: 3, dead: 10,353 Aug 11: real: 238,424, official: 237,990, infectious: 2,475, died: 3, dead: 10,356 Aug 12: real: 238,525, official: 238,103, infectious: 2,402, died: 3, dead: 10,359 Aug 13: real: 238,623, official: 238,213, infectious: 2,333, died: 3, dead: 10,362 Aug 14: real: 238,718, official: 238,320, infectious: 2,267, died: 3, dead: 10,365 Aug 15: real: 238,810, official: 238,424, infectious: 2,201, died: 3, dead: 10,368 Aug 16: real: 238,900, official: 238,525, infectious: 2,136, died: 3, dead: 10,371 Aug 17: real: 238,987, official: 238,623, infectious: 2,074, died: 3, dead: 10,374 Aug 18: real: 239,071, official: 238,718, infectious: 2,014, died: 3, dead: 10,377 Aug 19: real: 239,153, official: 238,810, infectious: 1,956, died: 3, dead: 10,380 Aug 20: real: 239,233, official: 238,900, infectious: 1,899, died: 2, dead: 10,382 Aug 21: real: 239,310, official: 238,987, infectious: 1,845, died: 2, dead: 10,384 Aug 22: real: 239,385, official: 239,071, infectious: 1,792, died: 2, dead: 10,386 Aug 23: real: 239,458, official: 239,153, infectious: 1,739, died: 2, dead: 10,388 Aug 24: real: 239,529, official: 239,233, infectious: 1,689, died: 2, dead: 10,390 Aug 25: real: 239,598, official: 239,310, infectious: 1,640, died: 2, dead: 10,392 Aug 26: real: 239,665, official: 239,385, infectious: 1,592, died: 2, dead: 10,394 Aug 27: real: 239,730, official: 239,458, infectious: 1,547, died: 2, dead: 10,396 Aug 28: real: 239,793, official: 239,529, infectious: 1,504, died: 2, dead: 10,398 Aug 29: real: 239,854, official: 239,598, infectious: 1,461, died: 2, dead: 10,400 Aug 30: real: 239,913, official: 239,665, infectious: 1,419, died: 2, dead: 10,402 Aug 31: real: 239,971, official: 239,730, infectious: 1,378, died: 2, dead: 10,404 Sep 1: real: 240,027, official: 239,793, infectious: 1,338, died: 2, dead: 10,406 Sep 2: real: 240,081, official: 239,854, infectious: 1,300, died: 2, dead: 10,408 Sep 3: real: 240,134, official: 239,913, infectious: 1,263, died: 1, dead: 10,409 Sep 4: real: 240,185, official: 239,971, infectious: 1,225, died: 1, dead: 10,410 Sep 5: real: 240,235, official: 240,027, infectious: 1,191, died: 1, dead: 10,411 Sep 6: real: 240,283, official: 240,081, infectious: 1,157, died: 1, dead: 10,412 Sep 7: real: 240,330, official: 240,134, infectious: 1,124, died: 1, dead: 10,413 Sep 8: real: 240,376, official: 240,185, infectious: 1,092, died: 1, dead: 10,414 Sep 9: real: 240,420, official: 240,235, infectious: 1,062, died: 1, dead: 10,415 Sep 10: real: 240,463, official: 240,283, infectious: 1,033, died: 1, dead: 10,416 Sep 11: real: 240,505, official: 240,330, infectious: 1,004, died: 1, dead: 10,417 Sep 12: real: 240,546, official: 240,376, infectious: 975, died: 1, dead: 10,418 Sep 13: real: 240,586, official: 240,420, infectious: 947, died: 1, dead: 10,419 Sep 14: real: 240,625, official: 240,463, infectious: 920, died: 1, dead: 10,420 Sep 15: real: 240,662, official: 240,505, infectious: 894, died: 1, dead: 10,421 Sep 16: real: 240,698, official: 240,546, infectious: 869, died: 1, dead: 10,422 Sep 17: real: 240,733, official: 240,586, infectious: 844, died: 1, dead: 10,423 Sep 18: real: 240,767, official: 240,625, infectious: 819, died: 1, dead: 10,424 Sep 19: real: 240,800, official: 240,662, infectious: 795, died: 1, dead: 10,425 Sep 20: real: 240,832, official: 240,698, infectious: 774, died: 1, dead: 10,426 Sep 21: real: 240,863, official: 240,733, infectious: 752, died: 1, dead: 10,427 Sep 22: real: 240,894, official: 240,767, infectious: 730, died: 1, dead: 10,428 Sep 23: real: 240,924, official: 240,800, infectious: 709, died: 1, dead: 10,429 Sep 24: real: 240,953, official: 240,832, infectious: 690, died: 1, dead: 10,430 Sep 25: real: 240,981, official: 240,863, infectious: 671, died: 1, dead: 10,431 Sep 26: real: 241,008, official: 240,894, infectious: 653, died: 1, dead: 10,432 Sep 27: real: 241,035, official: 240,924, infectious: 635, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Sep 28: real: 241,061, official: 240,953, infectious: 618, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Sep 29: real: 241,086, official: 240,981, infectious: 602, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Sep 30: real: 241,111, official: 241,008, infectious: 585, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 1: real: 241,135, official: 241,035, infectious: 569, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 2: real: 241,158, official: 241,061, infectious: 554, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 3: real: 241,181, official: 241,086, infectious: 539, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 4: real: 241,203, official: 241,111, infectious: 525, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 5: real: 241,224, official: 241,135, infectious: 512, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 6: real: 241,245, official: 241,158, infectious: 497, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 7: real: 241,265, official: 241,181, infectious: 483, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 8: real: 241,285, official: 241,203, infectious: 470, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 9: real: 241,304, official: 241,224, infectious: 457, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 10: real: 241,323, official: 241,245, infectious: 445, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 11: real: 241,341, official: 241,265, infectious: 432, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 12: real: 241,359, official: 241,285, infectious: 420, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 13: real: 241,376, official: 241,304, infectious: 408, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 14: real: 241,393, official: 241,323, infectious: 396, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 15: real: 241,409, official: 241,341, infectious: 386, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 16: real: 241,425, official: 241,359, infectious: 377, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 17: real: 241,440, official: 241,376, infectious: 368, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 18: real: 241,455, official: 241,393, infectious: 360, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 19: real: 241,470, official: 241,409, infectious: 351, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 20: real: 241,484, official: 241,425, infectious: 342, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 21: real: 241,498, official: 241,440, infectious: 334, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 22: real: 241,512, official: 241,455, infectious: 325, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 23: real: 241,525, official: 241,470, infectious: 317, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 24: real: 241,538, official: 241,484, infectious: 310, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 25: real: 241,551, official: 241,498, infectious: 302, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 26: real: 241,563, official: 241,512, infectious: 295, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 27: real: 241,575, official: 241,525, infectious: 289, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 28: real: 241,587, official: 241,538, infectious: 282, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 29: real: 241,599, official: 241,551, infectious: 277, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 30: real: 241,610, official: 241,563, infectious: 272, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Oct 31: real: 241,621, official: 241,575, infectious: 266, died: 0, dead: 10,432 Nov 1: real: 241,632, official: 241,587, infectious: 259, died: 0, dead: 10,432 As of Nov 1 evening: 220: Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Apr 15. 0: Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS 3,246: Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 7,186: Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: --------------- 10,432: GRAND TOTAL DEATHS