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10x in
55 days
SAFE
No H-Day!

...not reached!...


Tues Apr 14th: H-Day avoided: NYC HOSPITALS DON'T FILL UP!

Probably:     500,000 Known NYC inf : Not reached, if isolation continues successfully!    
Probably:    1M  Known NYC inf:       Not reached!   
Possibly:  2.5M  Known NYC inf:       Not reached!
Perhaps:     4M  Known NYC inf:       Not reached!

Resources

Growth-factor/Increase to 10x/1,000x Table
assumptions
GitHub source code for basic V.1 simulations

Articles

Ratings: E for Everyone; G for Government decision-makers; T for Technical.

--pending--

Graph Projections from Simulation

β€œIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra



Hover Mouse over a line to get its values. Use "Switch Log/Linear" button to go back and forth between the useful log plot and the familiar linear plot. Use Slider to adjust upper range of data displayed.

If you find this information useful, please kindly reward us with what you think is fair, at gofundme.com/f/scrier.

How to read the Log Chart:
Left, solid side: actual data, total infecteds (brown) + deaths (black).
Yellow Severes total and Red Criticals total are estimated from infecteds,
but may not have gotten sick and reported in to the hospital yet.
Right, dotted lines: projections.
Straight lines in Log space say we well understand what's going on.
Bends say the situation is changing.
First kink around Mar 20th is where social isolation kicked in, in NYC.
Large kinks in black Death rate on left side are due to missing early data.
Kink in black Death rate simulation right before Today seems due to error in
underestimating the actual *natural* U.S. death rate at 2.5%, TBD.
Black line crossing red line indicates some hospitals may already be full.
Assumes 15% of actual cases are Severe, and 5% are Critical.
Projections assume Self-Isolation Scenario constant at current level, no changes.
Simulation assumes Isolation slows but does not stop virus, as data results show;
go ahead and divide final results by four or something if you're feeling lucky.

Latest Timing Forecasts from Simulation (Tues Apr 14, using Mon afternoon data)

Tues, Apr 14, 2020, 8:00pm EST:

NYC social isolation is working reasonably well. Although as of Mar 18th NYC was staring into the abyss, with a 218% Growth rate that's 1,000x in 8.9 days, (hopefully due to substantially increased testing that week?), the call for self-isolation on Mar 20th was noticed--and with everyone getting serious, Growth has almost flattened to 104.4%. Congratulations, New York City!

Since this is under the hospital replacement rate of around 105%, it means that the number of people in the hospitals are gradually going to shrink over the next number of weeks, instead of expanding by 10x and then 100x.

Our model says NYC should have already run out of 1,800 ventilators by close of business today, Apr 4 2020. Either our parameters are not accurate, or there's some information missing.

At this point, instead of being completely swamped, NYC is not going to run out of hospital beds.

SUMMARY:

RUN OUT OF  1,800 NYC  VENTILATORS    Apr 4 ???
DON'T RUN OUT OF 27,300 NYC HOSPITAL BEDS with current levels of isolation

As of Nov  1 evening:
        220:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Apr 15.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,246:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
      7,186:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     10,432:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS

Simulation Run:

Various simulations come up with various results.

Current peak daily deaths forecast for NYC are only 220 a day now,
thankfully not the 11K/day being previously forecast.
This is due to successful social isolation.

At present we are still missing accurate early data for total NYC deaths at the beginning of March.

Ventilators have recently been shown to most likely be a red herring.
Patients appear to be dying from lack of working hemoglobin,
which explains why, even with ventilator use in the hospital,
survival rates of patients given ventilators were only 50%.  
Ventilators are currently believed to cause more damage than they prevent.  
This massive change will affect the death rates substantially,
and is not yet reflected in the forecasts.

The current Scenario is the best guess at a fairly realistic current scenario,

The simulation is still missing a reduction in effective N from those who HARD self-isolate;
you can probably multiply the final results in May by 50% or 25% in order to get finished numbers.
April will still be the same.

Note: Uses latest data and model from Apr 13th.
Assumes self-isolation
SLOWS spread, but does not PREVENT it.
This is probably inaccurate. Divide these final results by about 4 if people hard self-isolate.
It
will not change the timings on the run-outs, nor any decisions to be made in the next 3 weeks.
More accurate simulations will hopefully be presented later.

Powered by SCRIER.org. If you enjoy saving lives, please kindly feel good and reward our work at gofundme.com/f/scrier .
Starting Run:
NYC BestGuess Scenario: After 1 month Self-Isolation  
using Beta = 0.043, that's 104.4% Growth per day (before adjustments)
Mar  1:  real: 4,  official: 1,  infectious: 4,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  2:  real: 7,  official: 1,  infectious: 7,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  3:  real: 12,  official: 2,  infectious: 12,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  4:  real: 14,  official: 2,  infectious: 14,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  5:  real: 25,  official: 4,  infectious: 25,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  6:  real: 32,  official: 7,  infectious: 32,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  7:  real: 53,  official: 12,  infectious: 53,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  8:  real: 88,  official: 14,  infectious: 88,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar  9:  real: 137,  official: 25,  infectious: 137,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 10:  real: 185,  official: 32,  infectious: 185,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 11:  real: 269,  official: 53,  infectious: 269,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 12:  real: 464,  official: 88,  infectious: 464,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 13:  real: 923,  official: 137,  infectious: 923,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 14:  real: 2,009,  official: 185,  infectious: 2,009,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 15:  real: 3,954,  official: 269,  infectious: 3,954,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 16:  real: 5,683,  official: 464,  infectious: 5,683,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 17:  real: 8,115,  official: 923,  infectious: 8,115,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 18:  real: 10,764,  official: 2,009,  infectious: 10,764,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 19:  real: 13,119,  official: 3,954,  infectious: 13,119,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 20:  real: 15,597,  official: 5,683,  infectious: 15,597,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 21:  real: 20,011,  official: 8,115,  infectious: 20,011,  died: 0,  dead: 0

Mar 22:  real: 23,112,  official: 10,764,  infectious: 23,112,  died: 209,  dead: 209

Mar 23:  real: 26,697,  official: 13,119,  infectious: 26,697,  died: 31,  dead: 240

Mar 24:  real: 30,765,  official: 15,597,  infectious: 30,765,  died: 36,  dead: 276

Mar 25:  real: 33,474,  official: 20,011,  infectious: 33,474,  died: 41,  dead: 317

Mar 26:  real: 38,087,  official: 23,112,  infectious: 38,087,  died: 48,  dead: 365

Mar 27:  real: 43,139,  official: 26,697,  infectious: 43,139,  died: 152,  dead: 517

Mar 28:  real: 45,707,  official: 30,765,  infectious: 45,707,  died: 161,  dead: 678

Mar 29:  real: 49,707,  official: 33,474,  infectious: 49,707,  died: 98,  dead: 776

Mar 30:  real: 56,289,  official: 38,087,  infectious: 56,289,  died: -98,  dead: 678

Mar 31:  real: 60,850,  official: 43,139,  infectious: 60,850,  died: 254,  dead: 932

Apr  1:  real: 64,955,  official: 45,707,  infectious: 64,955,  died: 442,  dead: 1,374

Apr  2:  real: 68,776,  official: 49,707,  infectious: 68,776,  died: 188,  dead: 1,562

Apr  3:  real: 74,601,  official: 56,289,  infectious: 74,601,  died: 305,  dead: 1,867

Apr  4:  real: 80,204,  official: 60,850,  infectious: 80,204,  died: 387,  dead: 2,254

Apr  5:  real: 87,725,  official: 64,955,  infectious: 87,725,  died: 218,  dead: 2,472

Apr  6:  real: 94,409,  official: 68,776,  infectious: 94,409,  died: 266,  dead: 2,738

Apr  7:  real: 98,715,  official: 74,601,  infectious: 98,715,  died: 806,  dead: 3,544

Apr  8:  real: 104,410,  official: 80,204,  infectious: 104,410,  died: 716,  dead: 4,260

Apr  9:  real: 107,263,  official: 87,725,  infectious: 107,263,  died: 518,  dead: 4,778

...simulation engine starts here...
Apr 10:  real: 110,513,  official: 94,409,  infectious: 75,975,  died: 47,  dead: 4,825


RAN OUT OF VENTILATORS
Apr 11:  real: 113,796,  official: 98,715,  infectious: 76,772,  died: 72,  dead: 4,897

Apr 12:  real: 117,022,  official: 104,410,  infectious: 75,488,  died: 70,  dead: 4,967

Apr 13:  real: 120,253,  official: 107,263,  infectious: 75,644,  died: 94,  dead: 5,061

Apr 14:  real: 123,461,  official: 110,513,  infectious: 75,146,  died: 83,  dead: 5,144

Apr 15:  real: 126,641,  official: 113,796,  infectious: 74,527,  died: 220,  dead: 5,364

Apr 16:  real: 129,839,  official: 117,022,  infectious: 74,972,  died: 178,  dead: 5,542

Apr 17:  real: 132,986,  official: 120,253,  infectious: 73,826,  died: 177,  dead: 5,719

Apr 18:  real: 136,072,  official: 123,461,  infectious: 72,427,  died: 71,  dead: 5,790

Apr 19:  real: 139,176,  official: 126,641,  infectious: 72,873,  died: 162,  dead: 5,952

Apr 20:  real: 142,246,  official: 129,839,  infectious: 72,114,  died: 164,  dead: 6,116

Apr 21:  real: 145,195,  official: 132,986,  infectious: 69,313,  died: 161,  dead: 6,277

Apr 22:  real: 148,091,  official: 136,072,  infectious: 68,094,  died: 161,  dead: 6,438

Apr 23:  real: 150,944,  official: 139,176,  infectious: 67,125,  died: 160,  dead: 6,598

Apr 24:  real: 153,763,  official: 142,246,  infectious: 66,342,  died: 159,  dead: 6,757

Apr 25:  real: 156,477,  official: 145,195,  infectious: 63,909,  died: 159,  dead: 6,916

Apr 26:  real: 159,093,  official: 148,091,  infectious: 61,628,  died: 157,  dead: 7,073

Apr 27:  real: 161,543,  official: 150,944,  infectious: 57,729,  died: 154,  dead: 7,227

Apr 28:  real: 163,851,  official: 153,763,  infectious: 54,408,  died: 155,  dead: 7,382

Apr 29:  real: 166,091,  official: 156,477,  infectious: 52,831,  died: 153,  dead: 7,535

Apr 30:  real: 168,211,  official: 159,093,  infectious: 50,013,  died: 147,  dead: 7,682

May  1:  real: 170,305,  official: 161,543,  infectious: 49,418,  died: 144,  dead: 7,826

May  2:  real: 172,355,  official: 163,851,  infectious: 48,403,  died: 142,  dead: 7,968

May  3:  real: 174,359,  official: 166,091,  infectious: 47,322,  died: 140,  dead: 8,108

May  4:  real: 176,315,  official: 168,211,  infectious: 46,199,  died: 135,  dead: 8,243

May  5:  real: 178,223,  official: 170,305,  infectious: 45,074,  died: 130,  dead: 8,373

May  6:  real: 180,083,  official: 172,355,  infectious: 43,975,  died: 81,  dead: 8,454

May  7:  real: 181,898,  official: 174,359,  infectious: 42,919,  died: 5,  dead: 8,459


VENTILATORS FINALLY AVAILABLE
May  8:  real: 183,666,  official: 176,315,  infectious: 41,810,  died: 35,  dead: 8,494

May  9:  real: 185,386,  official: 178,223,  infectious: 40,690,  died: 17,  dead: 8,511

May 10:  real: 187,059,  official: 180,083,  infectious: 39,595,  died: 23,  dead: 8,534

May 11:  real: 188,682,  official: 181,898,  infectious: 38,415,  died: 90,  dead: 8,624

May 12:  real: 190,256,  official: 183,666,  infectious: 37,259,  died: 38,  dead: 8,662

May 13:  real: 191,783,  official: 185,386,  infectious: 36,160,  died: 44,  dead: 8,706

May 14:  real: 193,263,  official: 187,059,  infectious: 35,063,  died: 50,  dead: 8,756

May 15:  real: 194,696,  official: 188,682,  infectious: 33,962,  died: 33,  dead: 8,789

May 16:  real: 196,082,  official: 190,256,  infectious: 32,852,  died: 50,  dead: 8,839

May 17:  real: 197,423,  official: 191,783,  infectious: 31,789,  died: 48,  dead: 8,887

May 18:  real: 198,721,  official: 193,263,  infectious: 30,767,  died: 47,  dead: 8,934

May 19:  real: 199,979,  official: 194,696,  infectious: 29,842,  died: 46,  dead: 8,980

May 20:  real: 201,202,  official: 196,082,  infectious: 28,997,  died: 45,  dead: 9,025

May 21:  real: 202,390,  official: 197,423,  infectious: 28,178,  died: 44,  dead: 9,069

May 22:  real: 203,546,  official: 198,721,  infectious: 27,429,  died: 43,  dead: 9,112

May 23:  real: 204,670,  official: 199,979,  infectious: 26,673,  died: 41,  dead: 9,153

May 24:  real: 205,762,  official: 201,202,  infectious: 25,930,  died: 40,  dead: 9,193

May 25:  real: 206,823,  official: 202,390,  infectious: 25,200,  died: 39,  dead: 9,232

May 26:  real: 207,854,  official: 203,546,  infectious: 24,482,  died: 38,  dead: 9,270

May 27:  real: 208,855,  official: 204,670,  infectious: 23,779,  died: 37,  dead: 9,307

May 28:  real: 209,827,  official: 205,762,  infectious: 23,092,  died: 35,  dead: 9,342

May 29:  real: 210,771,  official: 206,823,  infectious: 22,416,  died: 34,  dead: 9,376

May 30:  real: 211,687,  official: 207,854,  infectious: 21,756,  died: 33,  dead: 9,409

May 31:  real: 212,575,  official: 208,855,  infectious: 21,112,  died: 32,  dead: 9,441

Jun  1:  real: 213,437,  official: 209,827,  infectious: 20,483,  died: 31,  dead: 9,472

Jun  2:  real: 214,273,  official: 210,771,  infectious: 19,872,  died: 30,  dead: 9,502

Jun  3:  real: 215,084,  official: 211,687,  infectious: 19,281,  died: 29,  dead: 9,531

Jun  4:  real: 215,871,  official: 212,575,  infectious: 18,707,  died: 28,  dead: 9,559

Jun  5:  real: 216,634,  official: 213,437,  infectious: 18,152,  died: 28,  dead: 9,587

Jun  6:  real: 217,375,  official: 214,273,  infectious: 17,614,  died: 27,  dead: 9,614

Jun  7:  real: 218,094,  official: 215,084,  infectious: 17,095,  died: 26,  dead: 9,640

Jun  8:  real: 218,792,  official: 215,871,  infectious: 16,597,  died: 25,  dead: 9,665

Jun  9:  real: 219,469,  official: 216,634,  infectious: 16,115,  died: 25,  dead: 9,690

Jun 10:  real: 220,127,  official: 217,375,  infectious: 15,648,  died: 24,  dead: 9,714

Jun 11:  real: 220,766,  official: 218,094,  infectious: 15,194,  died: 23,  dead: 9,737

Jun 12:  real: 221,386,  official: 218,792,  infectious: 14,753,  died: 22,  dead: 9,759

Jun 13:  real: 221,988,  official: 219,469,  infectious: 14,324,  died: 22,  dead: 9,781

Jun 14:  real: 222,572,  official: 220,127,  infectious: 13,906,  died: 21,  dead: 9,802

Jun 15:  real: 223,139,  official: 220,766,  infectious: 13,499,  died: 20,  dead: 9,822

Jun 16:  real: 223,689,  official: 221,386,  infectious: 13,104,  died: 20,  dead: 9,842

Jun 17:  real: 224,223,  official: 221,988,  infectious: 12,719,  died: 19,  dead: 9,861

Jun 18:  real: 224,741,  official: 222,572,  infectious: 12,344,  died: 19,  dead: 9,880

Jun 19:  real: 225,244,  official: 223,139,  infectious: 11,979,  died: 18,  dead: 9,898

Jun 20:  real: 225,732,  official: 223,689,  infectious: 11,625,  died: 17,  dead: 9,915

Jun 21:  real: 226,206,  official: 224,223,  infectious: 11,281,  died: 17,  dead: 9,932

Jun 22:  real: 226,666,  official: 224,741,  infectious: 10,949,  died: 16,  dead: 9,948

Jun 23:  real: 227,112,  official: 225,244,  infectious: 10,627,  died: 16,  dead: 9,964

Jun 24:  real: 227,545,  official: 225,732,  infectious: 10,315,  died: 15,  dead: 9,979

Jun 25:  real: 227,965,  official: 226,206,  infectious: 10,011,  died: 15,  dead: 9,994

Jun 26:  real: 228,373,  official: 226,666,  infectious: 9,717,  died: 15,  dead: 10,009

Jun 27:  real: 228,769,  official: 227,112,  infectious: 9,432,  died: 14,  dead: 10,023

Jun 28:  real: 229,153,  official: 227,545,  infectious: 9,155,  died: 14,  dead: 10,037

Jun 29:  real: 229,526,  official: 227,965,  infectious: 8,886,  died: 13,  dead: 10,050

Jun 30:  real: 229,888,  official: 228,373,  infectious: 8,625,  died: 13,  dead: 10,063

Jul  1:  real: 230,239,  official: 228,769,  infectious: 8,371,  died: 12,  dead: 10,075

Jul  2:  real: 230,580,  official: 229,153,  infectious: 8,124,  died: 12,  dead: 10,087

Jul  3:  real: 230,911,  official: 229,526,  infectious: 7,884,  died: 12,  dead: 10,099

Jul  4:  real: 231,232,  official: 229,888,  infectious: 7,653,  died: 11,  dead: 10,110

Jul  5:  real: 231,544,  official: 230,239,  infectious: 7,429,  died: 11,  dead: 10,121

Jul  6:  real: 231,846,  official: 230,580,  infectious: 7,210,  died: 11,  dead: 10,132

Jul  7:  real: 232,140,  official: 230,911,  infectious: 6,999,  died: 10,  dead: 10,142

Jul  8:  real: 232,425,  official: 231,232,  infectious: 6,792,  died: 10,  dead: 10,152

Jul  9:  real: 232,702,  official: 231,544,  infectious: 6,593,  died: 10,  dead: 10,162

Jul 10:  real: 232,970,  official: 231,846,  infectious: 6,398,  died: 9,  dead: 10,171

Jul 11:  real: 233,230,  official: 232,140,  infectious: 6,211,  died: 9,  dead: 10,180

Jul 12:  real: 233,483,  official: 232,425,  infectious: 6,028,  died: 9,  dead: 10,189

Jul 13:  real: 233,728,  official: 232,702,  infectious: 5,850,  died: 9,  dead: 10,198

Jul 14:  real: 233,966,  official: 232,970,  infectious: 5,679,  died: 8,  dead: 10,206

Jul 15:  real: 234,197,  official: 233,230,  infectious: 5,512,  died: 8,  dead: 10,214

Jul 16:  real: 234,421,  official: 233,483,  infectious: 5,349,  died: 8,  dead: 10,222

Jul 17:  real: 234,639,  official: 233,728,  infectious: 5,192,  died: 8,  dead: 10,230

Jul 18:  real: 234,850,  official: 233,966,  infectious: 5,040,  died: 7,  dead: 10,237

Jul 19:  real: 235,055,  official: 234,197,  infectious: 4,892,  died: 7,  dead: 10,244

Jul 20:  real: 235,254,  official: 234,421,  infectious: 4,749,  died: 7,  dead: 10,251

Jul 21:  real: 235,447,  official: 234,639,  infectious: 4,609,  died: 7,  dead: 10,258

Jul 22:  real: 235,635,  official: 234,850,  infectious: 4,474,  died: 6,  dead: 10,264

Jul 23:  real: 235,817,  official: 235,055,  infectious: 4,343,  died: 6,  dead: 10,270

Jul 24:  real: 235,994,  official: 235,254,  infectious: 4,217,  died: 6,  dead: 10,276

Jul 25:  real: 236,166,  official: 235,447,  infectious: 4,093,  died: 6,  dead: 10,282

Jul 26:  real: 236,333,  official: 235,635,  infectious: 3,975,  died: 6,  dead: 10,288

Jul 27:  real: 236,495,  official: 235,817,  infectious: 3,859,  died: 5,  dead: 10,293

Jul 28:  real: 236,652,  official: 235,994,  infectious: 3,747,  died: 5,  dead: 10,298

Jul 29:  real: 236,804,  official: 236,166,  infectious: 3,637,  died: 5,  dead: 10,303

Jul 30:  real: 236,952,  official: 236,333,  infectious: 3,531,  died: 5,  dead: 10,308

Jul 31:  real: 237,096,  official: 236,495,  infectious: 3,427,  died: 5,  dead: 10,313

Aug  1:  real: 237,235,  official: 236,652,  infectious: 3,327,  died: 5,  dead: 10,318

Aug  2:  real: 237,370,  official: 236,804,  infectious: 3,231,  died: 4,  dead: 10,322

Aug  3:  real: 237,501,  official: 236,952,  infectious: 3,136,  died: 4,  dead: 10,326

Aug  4:  real: 237,629,  official: 237,096,  infectious: 3,045,  died: 4,  dead: 10,330

Aug  5:  real: 237,753,  official: 237,235,  infectious: 2,955,  died: 4,  dead: 10,334

Aug  6:  real: 237,873,  official: 237,370,  infectious: 2,869,  died: 4,  dead: 10,338

Aug  7:  real: 237,990,  official: 237,501,  infectious: 2,787,  died: 4,  dead: 10,342

Aug  8:  real: 238,103,  official: 237,629,  infectious: 2,705,  died: 4,  dead: 10,346

Aug  9:  real: 238,213,  official: 237,753,  infectious: 2,627,  died: 4,  dead: 10,350

Aug 10:  real: 238,320,  official: 237,873,  infectious: 2,550,  died: 3,  dead: 10,353

Aug 11:  real: 238,424,  official: 237,990,  infectious: 2,475,  died: 3,  dead: 10,356

Aug 12:  real: 238,525,  official: 238,103,  infectious: 2,402,  died: 3,  dead: 10,359

Aug 13:  real: 238,623,  official: 238,213,  infectious: 2,333,  died: 3,  dead: 10,362

Aug 14:  real: 238,718,  official: 238,320,  infectious: 2,267,  died: 3,  dead: 10,365

Aug 15:  real: 238,810,  official: 238,424,  infectious: 2,201,  died: 3,  dead: 10,368

Aug 16:  real: 238,900,  official: 238,525,  infectious: 2,136,  died: 3,  dead: 10,371

Aug 17:  real: 238,987,  official: 238,623,  infectious: 2,074,  died: 3,  dead: 10,374

Aug 18:  real: 239,071,  official: 238,718,  infectious: 2,014,  died: 3,  dead: 10,377

Aug 19:  real: 239,153,  official: 238,810,  infectious: 1,956,  died: 3,  dead: 10,380

Aug 20:  real: 239,233,  official: 238,900,  infectious: 1,899,  died: 2,  dead: 10,382

Aug 21:  real: 239,310,  official: 238,987,  infectious: 1,845,  died: 2,  dead: 10,384

Aug 22:  real: 239,385,  official: 239,071,  infectious: 1,792,  died: 2,  dead: 10,386

Aug 23:  real: 239,458,  official: 239,153,  infectious: 1,739,  died: 2,  dead: 10,388

Aug 24:  real: 239,529,  official: 239,233,  infectious: 1,689,  died: 2,  dead: 10,390

Aug 25:  real: 239,598,  official: 239,310,  infectious: 1,640,  died: 2,  dead: 10,392

Aug 26:  real: 239,665,  official: 239,385,  infectious: 1,592,  died: 2,  dead: 10,394

Aug 27:  real: 239,730,  official: 239,458,  infectious: 1,547,  died: 2,  dead: 10,396

Aug 28:  real: 239,793,  official: 239,529,  infectious: 1,504,  died: 2,  dead: 10,398

Aug 29:  real: 239,854,  official: 239,598,  infectious: 1,461,  died: 2,  dead: 10,400

Aug 30:  real: 239,913,  official: 239,665,  infectious: 1,419,  died: 2,  dead: 10,402

Aug 31:  real: 239,971,  official: 239,730,  infectious: 1,378,  died: 2,  dead: 10,404

Sep  1:  real: 240,027,  official: 239,793,  infectious: 1,338,  died: 2,  dead: 10,406

Sep  2:  real: 240,081,  official: 239,854,  infectious: 1,300,  died: 2,  dead: 10,408

Sep  3:  real: 240,134,  official: 239,913,  infectious: 1,263,  died: 1,  dead: 10,409

Sep  4:  real: 240,185,  official: 239,971,  infectious: 1,225,  died: 1,  dead: 10,410

Sep  5:  real: 240,235,  official: 240,027,  infectious: 1,191,  died: 1,  dead: 10,411

Sep  6:  real: 240,283,  official: 240,081,  infectious: 1,157,  died: 1,  dead: 10,412

Sep  7:  real: 240,330,  official: 240,134,  infectious: 1,124,  died: 1,  dead: 10,413

Sep  8:  real: 240,376,  official: 240,185,  infectious: 1,092,  died: 1,  dead: 10,414

Sep  9:  real: 240,420,  official: 240,235,  infectious: 1,062,  died: 1,  dead: 10,415

Sep 10:  real: 240,463,  official: 240,283,  infectious: 1,033,  died: 1,  dead: 10,416

Sep 11:  real: 240,505,  official: 240,330,  infectious: 1,004,  died: 1,  dead: 10,417

Sep 12:  real: 240,546,  official: 240,376,  infectious: 975,  died: 1,  dead: 10,418

Sep 13:  real: 240,586,  official: 240,420,  infectious: 947,  died: 1,  dead: 10,419

Sep 14:  real: 240,625,  official: 240,463,  infectious: 920,  died: 1,  dead: 10,420

Sep 15:  real: 240,662,  official: 240,505,  infectious: 894,  died: 1,  dead: 10,421

Sep 16:  real: 240,698,  official: 240,546,  infectious: 869,  died: 1,  dead: 10,422

Sep 17:  real: 240,733,  official: 240,586,  infectious: 844,  died: 1,  dead: 10,423

Sep 18:  real: 240,767,  official: 240,625,  infectious: 819,  died: 1,  dead: 10,424

Sep 19:  real: 240,800,  official: 240,662,  infectious: 795,  died: 1,  dead: 10,425

Sep 20:  real: 240,832,  official: 240,698,  infectious: 774,  died: 1,  dead: 10,426

Sep 21:  real: 240,863,  official: 240,733,  infectious: 752,  died: 1,  dead: 10,427

Sep 22:  real: 240,894,  official: 240,767,  infectious: 730,  died: 1,  dead: 10,428

Sep 23:  real: 240,924,  official: 240,800,  infectious: 709,  died: 1,  dead: 10,429

Sep 24:  real: 240,953,  official: 240,832,  infectious: 690,  died: 1,  dead: 10,430

Sep 25:  real: 240,981,  official: 240,863,  infectious: 671,  died: 1,  dead: 10,431

Sep 26:  real: 241,008,  official: 240,894,  infectious: 653,  died: 1,  dead: 10,432

Sep 27:  real: 241,035,  official: 240,924,  infectious: 635,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Sep 28:  real: 241,061,  official: 240,953,  infectious: 618,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Sep 29:  real: 241,086,  official: 240,981,  infectious: 602,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Sep 30:  real: 241,111,  official: 241,008,  infectious: 585,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  1:  real: 241,135,  official: 241,035,  infectious: 569,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  2:  real: 241,158,  official: 241,061,  infectious: 554,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  3:  real: 241,181,  official: 241,086,  infectious: 539,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  4:  real: 241,203,  official: 241,111,  infectious: 525,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  5:  real: 241,224,  official: 241,135,  infectious: 512,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  6:  real: 241,245,  official: 241,158,  infectious: 497,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  7:  real: 241,265,  official: 241,181,  infectious: 483,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  8:  real: 241,285,  official: 241,203,  infectious: 470,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct  9:  real: 241,304,  official: 241,224,  infectious: 457,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 10:  real: 241,323,  official: 241,245,  infectious: 445,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 11:  real: 241,341,  official: 241,265,  infectious: 432,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 12:  real: 241,359,  official: 241,285,  infectious: 420,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 13:  real: 241,376,  official: 241,304,  infectious: 408,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 14:  real: 241,393,  official: 241,323,  infectious: 396,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 15:  real: 241,409,  official: 241,341,  infectious: 386,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 16:  real: 241,425,  official: 241,359,  infectious: 377,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 17:  real: 241,440,  official: 241,376,  infectious: 368,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 18:  real: 241,455,  official: 241,393,  infectious: 360,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 19:  real: 241,470,  official: 241,409,  infectious: 351,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 20:  real: 241,484,  official: 241,425,  infectious: 342,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 21:  real: 241,498,  official: 241,440,  infectious: 334,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 22:  real: 241,512,  official: 241,455,  infectious: 325,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 23:  real: 241,525,  official: 241,470,  infectious: 317,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 24:  real: 241,538,  official: 241,484,  infectious: 310,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 25:  real: 241,551,  official: 241,498,  infectious: 302,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 26:  real: 241,563,  official: 241,512,  infectious: 295,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 27:  real: 241,575,  official: 241,525,  infectious: 289,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 28:  real: 241,587,  official: 241,538,  infectious: 282,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 29:  real: 241,599,  official: 241,551,  infectious: 277,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 30:  real: 241,610,  official: 241,563,  infectious: 272,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Oct 31:  real: 241,621,  official: 241,575,  infectious: 266,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

Nov  1:  real: 241,632,  official: 241,587,  infectious: 259,  died: 0,  dead: 10,432

As of Nov  1 evening:
        220:  Peak # of Deaths in one day, which happens Apr 15.
          0:  Total avoidable deaths from severely ills denied Hosp.BEDS
      3,246:  Total avoidable deaths from critically ills denied H.VENTS 
      7,186:  Total deaths of those given proper hospital treatment: 
---------------
     10,432:  GRAND TOTAL DEATHS